jonathan: ian bremmer, president of eurasia group.m new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. up 15 on the s&p 500. futures positive 0.3%. the gnostic 100 futures up 0.2%. in the bond market, another lift for treasury yields, up 12 basis points, higher by three basis points to 1.65% on tends in the united states. in news conference taking place. a virtual news conference at 5:00 p.m. u.k. time for the british prime minister on the pandemic to take place a little bit later. tom: you think we will see a few of those in the coming days from the white house as well. right now, as we saw ian bremmer yesterday on china, dr. bremmer attracts qualified people to the eurasia group to generate the top 10 risks for any given year. this year's nuanced, brilliant list includes iran. we get an update from henry rome with eurasia group, of cambridge, of his journalism at open jerusalem post -- at "the jerusalem post," gives us the update on the minute. this concern about drones flying in to baghdad in danger. give u

eurasia group's top 10 risks. number four is china at home.l face an increasingly difficult environment in china. the task of keeping both washington and beijing happy. perhaps we can extend it further, the task of keeping an aggressive consumer in america happy and a nationalistic one in china happy too. how tough will that be? elizabeth: it is a significant and growing challenge. many companies are trying to navigate a growing sense that not only do you have companies, not only do they need to be concerned about national security issues, which have long been a presence in u.s. foreign economic policy, to ensure companies are exporting technology that can be used by other countries. but now, increasingly, we are dealing with human rights issues as well. human rights abuses. it is important in the context of china, where we see a very repressive regime from xi jinping. we have over a million chinese citizens in labor and reeducation camps, against their will. how does american business respond to this? i think congress and the biden administra

the expert at russia at eurasia group joins us now.oes vladimir putin respond to the upset in kazakhstan? >> i think he responds carefully at first. everybody watches to see how these protests develop. that is true in the kremlin. they may have been caught by surprise. one thing prudent does not want to see -- one thing that abeer prudent -- one thing vladimir putin does not want to see is chaos. they will want to see if they can control the situation and they will take lessons in terms of what this means with popular uprisings connected, in particular to the raising of gas prices which was the cause of this particular situation. tom: when we look at this in study we harken back to our collective memories. that is a memory of the soviet union. address how much there is a change of the soviet union -- a tinge of the soviet union in your analysis of moscow? alex: certainly i think for putin there are linkages back to the soviet past. he has expressed regret about the breakup of the soviet union. there is not a sense vladimir putin wants

the number one risk last year at eurasia group was this presidency. now it is the midterms.t to be music to the years to the likes of russia, the chinese communist party, who are looking ahead to places like taiwan, looking at ukraine. what does it mean for their decisions that they make? jane: i don't think they are unhappy to see dysfunction in the united states, and in various ways they are exploiting it. surely russia is. ian's report points out that we should expect more disinformation through social media for 2022. i think that is dead right. on china, china has a lot of its own problems. again, pointed out in the report, but i think since we have made china a focus of our foreign policy and the rhetoric has been pretty harsh, xi jinping is again probably quietly smiling at our dysfunction. what worries me, and afghanistan is emblematic of this, is you may be targeting the right issues, but our execution is poor. leaving afghanistan was a mess, and there was preplanning by the biden administration, but there's all this finger-pointing about we had a hard deadline that

ian bremmer, president of the eurasia group. thank you for your time.oming up, the tech selloff is taking a's today. we will speak to adena friedman, ceo of the nasdaq. could this affect their business model? this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is bloomberg markets. coming up, the deputy ceo. that is at 7:30 in london. this is bloomberg. alix: january has been a volatile month for tech companies. if you are long the nasdaq, it's been rough. stocks have lost 2.8 trillion dollars from market cap this month, and 53% of that comes from the nasdaq 100. joining us to discuss her outlook for the capital markets is adena friedman, president of nasdaq. you can catch the whole thing on linkedin. talking about how capital markets will affect the sustainable future as well as financial stability and fighting financial crime. we will break down all of that in a second. it's important to set the stage. the last few weeks have been very tumultuous if you are a long tech investor. how does it affect your business? how will it affect things like ipo's, spacs? adena: it's impor

the eurasia group cannot see that decision being taken in the short—term.ider this, bear in mind what the world health organisation recently said about the uk. i'm saying i can see where the end is, i can see light at the end of the tunnel, but i really do anticipate, right throughout the world, a bumpyjourney ahead during 2022. "light at the end of the tunnel," says the who. president xi talked of "the sunshine of hope". but china and the west are in two quite different places. the west has lost many more people but it's edging towards a life not dominated by the management of this virus. china, with its strict lockdowns and travel restrictions, is not. and for all the political, pr and public health reasons we've considered, it's unlikely to make that move anytime soon.

the eurasia group cannot see that decision being taken in the short—term., bear in mind what the world health organisation recently said about the uk. i'm saying i can see where the end is, i can see light at the end of the tunnel, but i really do anticipate, right throughout the world, a bumpyjourney ahead during 2022. "light at the end of the tunnel," says the who. president xi talked of "the sunshine of hope". but china and the west are in two quite different places. the west has lost many more people but it's edging towards a life not dominated by the management of this virus. china, with its strict lockdowns and travel restrictions, is not. and for all the political, pr and public health reasons we've considered, it's unlikely to make that move anytime soon. meant dried start to january, only seeing half the rainfall we would normally see by this stage. not a great deal of rain this week, certainly not for england and wales, we might see more midweek across scotland, with low pressure approaching. but for the meantime, the high pressure still hanging o

. >> joining me now is ian bremer, president and founder of the eurasia group with global economic andf things are happening here. joe biden and the americans are prepared for some kind of imminent invasion of ukraine by russia. the russians say we're not going do that. a whole lot of experts say that vladimir putin is posturing because when he flexes military muscle the world takes him seriously and even the ukrainians told the americans calm your rhetoric down a little bit. we don't think this is imminent. what's going to happen in your opinion? >> first, what's imminent? it's before putin leaves beijing and frankly, given that china is the most important friend on the planet right now it's hard to imagine that they would engage in major strikes while the olympics are going on. furthermore, when the ukrainian president says he's imminent, when he beats the war drums he'll be under a lot more pressure from nato to back down and form some kind of an agreement with the russians. he doesn't want that pressure. he also worries that his economy will implode, his banks will have major runs

he's president of eurasia group in g 0. media id is one of the world's lady risk assessors. he joins me from new york city in it's good to have you back on the program. happy new year to you. i want to ask you about the january 6th anniversary and just a moment. but 1st, you know, you and i, we've done this new years dance now for several years or tell me at the start of 2022. what condition is our world in? well, start with a little good news because we've had 2 years of all being so disrupted by the pandemic. i've never felt so optimistic but both sides of the atlantic being able to get through this and live with the virus moving it towards endemic. and that's because this wave of all micron comes with a lot fewer hospitalizations, a lot fewer deaths, we've got much better therapeutics that the wealthy world is going to be able to roll out very short order and we have a lot more vaccines and boosters. so that's good news and we, we shouldn't under estimate the importance of that. but globally, you know, the most powerful country in the world is of course, also the most pol

haslinda: the eurasia group president and elizabeth economy.heck of the business flash headlines. credit suisse is laying off 60 nonemployees in new york. the job cuts will take place in march with the lender set to -- it comes in the wake of a collapse which cost credit suisse $5.5 billion. a hedge fund billionaire and partners pay themselves $1.2 billion after a record year of losses. $684 million went to rokos himself. rishaad: let's have a look at the bond market. u.s. treasuries, having there were start to the year and almost a decade, right across the curve, yields surging, 10 year notes leading the challenge. just about 13 basis points, exceeding 1.6% for the first time since the omicron variant emerged. currencies and focus. the peso dropping to the lowest level since 2020. ♪ announcer: from the heart of where innovation, money and power collide -- in silicon valley and beyond, this is bloomberg technology with emily chang. emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco and this is bloomberg technology. a hot start to 2022 for tesla -- shares

this is something that ian bremmer at eurasia group raised. of his top problems, risk going forward, was this transition, this energy transition of global economy. how acute in your mind is this risk? >> it is a very big risk. europe completely underestimated to strategically plan this and move forward. there is a lot of volatility in the energy prices because of this in 2022. countries like china and the west have to move more into this energy transition. the u.s. back in the 1980's and 1990's, greenhouse gas emissions were a problem. lobbying groups were lobbying against it. now everybody realizes this is sin issue and we need to do something. once the u.s. start to transition into other fuels, i think they realize we need to have a plan to manage the transition. it is and important topic. i think we should devote much more time and resources on it. manus: how do you incorporate that strategic thinking about the transition into a portfolio construct? what elements do i need to put in that bolsters me to the transition? >> one thing we have b

we go to alex purdue, who give us a lot of smarts -- to alex brideau with eurasia group.e are thrilled he could visit again. i am thunderstruck at the granularity of eastern troops, think vladivostok, taking the trans-siberian railway all the way over to belarus. you don't do that unless it is for a reason. why does mr. putin have eastern troops in belarus threatening kiev? alex: we have seen other signs of that happening as well over the last few months, troops coming from siberia as another example of this. it does point to a buildup on the russia-ukraine border. you have some of these troops in military exercises, and that is another part that is being put on the ukrainians to come to some terms made back in december because they want a ban on ukraine's membership in nato. troop deployments in eastern europe is not just about ukraine. it is also about the threat putin perceives coming from the u.s. and nato on russia's western border. tom: is the threat cultural? is it the westernization of ukraine? alex: ukraine's turn to the west , particularly to europe economically

jonathan: we started the week with eurasia group. the zero covid effort of china, the zero covid effort of hong kong will fail. that is their big call for this year. tom: it runs into our bloomberg world. the basic idea is will we see some form of fiscal drag that may be diminishes economic growth into 2022? what i have heard in the conversations, including with ian bremmer, is the jury is out. there is great uncertainty about how this pandemic story fulton into what we see across equities, bonds, currency, and commodities. jonathan: and what it means for supply chains with china and hong kong living in 2020 and the trying to get back to work. before we go through the equity market we need to talk about the value/growth split. lisa: the biggest gap between value and growth going back to 1995. 1.5% gap. it is too early to say this will be the year of value. we are seeing a reflation trade very much take hold. i wonder how long this can last? it has been ahead fake year after year. jonathan: nasdaq futures down 46. on the s&p 500 down

with me to discuss the biggest threats to the world is ian bremmer, the president and founder of eurasia groupy in the last few years been turning your focus, which is typically all over the world, to the dangers that democracy in america present. both to america and to the world. tell me about how you're thinking about this right now because you focussed in -- one of your major threats is focused in on the midterm elections in part because of what i just read but you have greater concerns about what the dispute of the midterm elections could lead to. >> i started the firm in 1998. the united states' domestic politics was never part of it. the u.s. was doing a lot of leading by example. didn't make everyone around the world happy and we made our share of mistakes but there wasn't really any question about the legitimacy of american political institutions. now, i mean, you and i know ali and that kind of fundamental to a functioning democracy is the ability to have free and fair, legitimate elections that whoever wins, whoever loses, you go on and you continue to govern. and all around the worl

. >> for more on this, let me bring in ian bremer, the president of eurasia group nz media.t's start with the stakes. i was interested to hear you say yesterday that this is the first major foreign policy crisis of the biden administration, when you have the afghanistan mess and continued provocations coming from north korea. why does this current crisis with russia and ukraine set itself apart? >> one, we're not still really talking about afghanistan and the united states right now. if this blows up with russia, we'll be talking about it through the biden administration and beyond. it does have much more significant global consequences for relations between major powers. in that regard, as much as afghanistan was significant and was devastating to the people living there and the people that served, it's a very different order crisis than what we're looking at presently with russia. >> i think that's really interesting. your assessment right now is there is a lower likelihood of a full-scale invasion of ukraine. yet i'm seeing -- we hear what's coming out of ukrainian offici

and we also want to bring in the president of the eurasia group. >> i will say the u.s. community has been fairly convinced the most likely outcome the russians are planning a widespread invasion, which would include overturning the ukrainian government. the white house isn't convinced of that, but the intelligence community has, and they've been talking closely with the brits. people who have been following this closely aren't stunned by this, but there's a very big difference between russian intelligence being told they must have a scenario if putin were to decide to invade, they need to have a plan for that. and they've given them a plan. i think that's pretty clear. i think there are also plans considerably smaller in scale, and i think right now diplomacy is still being engaged in by both sides. but there's no question that 100,000 troops with more arriving daily, russian troops to the border including now to belarus for military exercises and the revelation of this intelligence plan all shows that the russians are quite serious that if diplomacy doesn't work some l

. >> joining me now to talk about this is ian bremer, president eurasia group. you're more aligned with what sam is hearing from ukrainians on the ground. less focused on a major military incursion from russia but a limited incursion that would include more hybrid warfare. explain that. >> well, i mean the consequences of the russians engaging in a full-on invasion are so much greater, in terms of nato becoming much stronger, much more focused on russia which is clearly not in putin's interest as well as the unpopularity of maintaining the cost of that domestically inside russia. but i will say that the fact that the americans have been able to align almost all nato allies more strongly, even in response to a more limited incursion, and that's something that really only picked up in the last couple of weeks that includes most importantly german chancellor schultz, coming to meet with biden on february 7th in the white house and has said that nord stream 2 is a dead letter, if there's even a limited incursion into ukraine. that clearly surprises putin. i don't th

the president of the eurasia group and g0 media. ian bremmer.y have one known case in beijing, i have to say the next three weeks are going to be a circus. i don't know what to expect with the olympics. >> they feel they can pull it off but clearly we'll see more cases, whether or not it causes events to shall disrupted, i don't know. it's weird and sealed off for the fans, tokyo was like that but china is the factory of the world. this is the most transmissible variant. if this is the way they respond you'll have supply chain issues and more inflation, that's what will affect americans later on this year. >> not to turn back to the olympics but i want to focus on a national security issue around them. this question of burner phones, the athletes are being told don't take your regular if cell phone into china. talking about the uighurs you're not necessarily seeing the protests we might expect here in the u.s. why are americans telling the athletes don't take your own cell phone into china and how are those two issues related? >> an' norm us pre

joining us is ian bremmer, president and founder of the eurasia group.that the white house is briefing the biggest u.s. banks on potential sanctions against russia what do we expect to happen next >> well, we still have at least a couple weeks of diplomacy, i think. have a hard time imagining putin would consider major military incursion before the olympics, his trip to beijing to be with xi jinping china is his one major friend on the global stage, and he's not going to undermine and embarrass him. and diplomacy is still going on. we had reasonably productive conversations between macron and putin and more broadly the normandy footing, as it's called eight hours long with the russians i think we'll have some more engagement between the u.s. and russia, and the letter that was sent, there will be some russian response after putin dijusts it to a greater degree. to be clear, the biden administration is increasingly worried that the russians are set on an escalatory direction that they are planning military strikes. if that happens, the impact on the marke

. >> for more on this, we are joined by the director of energy climate and resources at eurasia group and he's coming to us from london. i so appreciate you weighing in on this topic. you know, we just heard what the implications were in europe. i think it's tough sometimes for people here in the united states or at any gas pump, really, to understand what the clash with russia could mean to them. so if we deal with oil first, what is the potential of this flashpoint bringing oil prices up to $1 hu00 a barrel and possy beyond? >> thanks. so the problem is that russia is one of the world's biggest oil producers and the markets price in a risk premium, so a few political tensions affect what producers tend to drive prices up. and we've seen plenty of that recently, kazakhstan and now russia and oil markets are reacting by pushing prices. and that is a threat of u.s. sanctions that may impact russia [ inaudible ]. >> you know, you also point out that sanctioning russian oil companies and exports would be tricky. how so? >> yes, it might be tricky, because several u.s. companies incl incl

now, the eurasia group placed china's zero covid policy at the very top of its list of global risks forhat do chinese leaders plan to do about this? the fact that china's economy is slowing. economists and analysts we've been talking to say they expect beijing, the leadership to step in, with a number of ways to shore up china's slowing economy through tax cuts, through increases in infrastructure spending, through fiscal measures like speeding up the issuances of local bonds. and timing is of course the essence right now. this is a very sensitive year, politically critical year, because later this year chinese president xi jinping is set to secure that unprecedented third term as not just the head of the chinese communist party but the military and the chinese government. back to you, rosemary. >> all right. kristi lu stout joining us live from hong kong. many thanks. >> you're welcome. >>> england is taking another step in easing some of its covid rules. starting monday, people can end their self-isolation after five full days if they test negative on days 5 and 6 and have no fever. m

. >>> joining me now ian bremmer, president and founder of the eurasia group and g zero media. me let you pick up on what richard said and your interpretation of what you heard from the president. >> yeah, two things. first of all, it is very obvious that the americans have strong support from nato allies in how to respond to a russian invasion of ukraine, tanks in, air strikes, cyber and the overthrow of the ukrainian government. that would be met by severe and complete economic breakdown in relations between the americans, the europeans and russia and also a military response in terms of aggressive positioning of forces towards the russian border in the baltics, crimea and the rest. that is very different than how the americans would respond if, for example -- what's a limited incursion? i think this is the question people are trying to understand. putin has said on several occasions now that the ukrainian government is involved in acts of genocide against russian passport holders in occupied dunbas, this is a part of ukrainian territory but has declared itself independent. w

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eurasia group saying china policy could be one of the top geopolitical risks.e bus senior fellow about why the country's pandemic measures are such big concern. >> in spite of the massive case explosion, the developed world is going to feel more normal, finally, within weeks. but that is not the case at all in china. the ability to live with the virus, an extremely transmissible virus that is not as fatal, is the exact opposite of china's policy of zero covid. zero covid will not work, but they will stick with it. that means they are trying harder and harder to impose strict quarantines which is going to have big impact on their autonomy. it is not going to look good, but xi jinping can't back away. there vaccines do not work very well. they do not have a lot of antibodies in the population. they are going to be fighting harder and harder to deal with the strategy that looked the best in the world back in 2020 and this year it is going to be the worst. >> it worked for a couple of months, but what happens in china does not state insulated to china's economy. th

. >>> joining us now, president and founder of eurasia group ian bremmer and president and ceo of the you both. i have a question for you both. fred, i will start with you. in all of the reporting on this potential, possible, imminent invasion, i haven't heard one report or reason for why it won't happen. what am i missing? >> so, mika, first of all it is just great to see you in warsaw. give my greetings to the ambassador if you could. >> will do. >> what this is all about is can one change putin's calculus. in 2008 george w. bush looked by while putin went into georgia. in 2014 obama looked by while putin went into crimea and parts of ukraine. now is question is can biden be any different and change the calculus. they're trying to make the sanctions threat so putin sees it and says, this will be unbearable, this will hurt me far more than sanctions hurt me in 2014, and the fact that troops would move in after an incursion or invasion of ukraine, into neighboring countries, nato countries near ukraine, that's the other threat. what i think he really needs to do is do sanctions now, m

in 1992, it's often described as eurasia, in response to nato. the group includes russia along with fines, ex soviet republics. they conduct training exercises and oversee on sales, but this is the 1st time in the organizations history, where it's agreed to deploy troops to a member state. it refused several requests in the past, including from kyrgyzstan in 2010 and for more media last year. article 4 of its charter says it will only intervene if the country threat is threatened by an external force will donate as life from back. who is a for ease is males. are they against rector at the da university? and it is good to have you with us here on the al jazeera in use, or just give us a, a general sense of why you think things have gone from protests about gas prices to the, the, the armed violence that we're seeing on the streets of turns and cities across the country. thank you very much for the invitation. indeed, this is a very, very unstable situation. and for more than 30 years, i was considered one of the most people are colleagues in the central asi

about 6 months after the collapse of the soviet union and is often described as eurasia in response to nature. the group includes russia along with 5 ex soviet republics. they conduct training exercises and oversee sales. but this was the 1st time in the organizations history where it deployed true to a member state. it refused several requests in the past, including from kurdistan back in 2010 and a mania. last year. article 4 of its charters says it'll only do so if the country is being threatened by an external force. all right, let's it bringing i janet shot chena, who's a research fellow at the o. s. c. e academy in bish kick. she joins us now from london. thanks for being on the program. i john. so as we just heard for the 1st time his organization has deployed troops to a member state. so what does moscow's presence in cars extend say about russia's influence in that country? in say, a question of the implication of article for by to class has been strategic on his side. because on one hand, he sends a very awful signal to the leaves, political and meets within the country that he enjoys. the sup

eurasia program of the carnegie endowment for international peace explained who is involved in the unrest. there's a lot of concern, a lot of lack of clarity over who is in control of these violent groups and who is backing them. so what appears to be happening is there appears to be both a bottom up protest and bottom up descent. and then there are, you know, elite and there's a big, there's been a big power reshuffle in the country. mr. to chi of the current president has removed virtually all the people who are loyal to his predecessor from the government. so this is more than just a bottom of revolt. there's also a lot of the lead politics, you know, shifting here. and it's not quite clear, it looks like the, you know, mr. chi up is, is the one who's, who's ahead. but you know, down the road, there's going to be a lot of other decisions about how the economic resources are going to be divided. so we really don't know how this is going to and out. the us secretary of state says he has concerns about the need for russian lead strips and causes on we are encouraging everyone to find a peaceful resolution and constructive resolution to the situation. when it comes to the cfo, we have q