business has driven the turnaround the bank has also benefited from money injections by the european central bank but cuts are still likely with one in 3 employees in germany expected to lose their jobs in the coming years now our financial correspondent conrad booze and is covering the shareholders' meeting for us conrad good morning to you there in frankfurt 2 more figures here 8000 jobs are on the line the number of branches to be haft will this get the thumbs up by comments from shareholders today. there is no doubt you know chris the german government still owns about 15 percent of the shares of comments on another 42 percent is held by institutional investors together they really hold a very comfortable majority and from none of these investors came any objections against the plans of the job cuts which were communicated by clematis bank recently you know chris since comments bond took over another large german bank more than a decade ago dress not bank. many jobs have already been cut but since then the bank has not managed to become profitable or contra is downside of downsizing the right

central banks start to pare back their stimulus efforts and this has been what's really been under underpinning markets for the past several years very cheap money coming from the federal reserve from the european central bank and now investors are worried they're going to start sort of turning off the top for that and that would be quite negative especially for big tech stocks that have benefited tremendously from those policies issues like supply chains of very very strong. to the pandemic which hopefully is going to come to an end any time soon but do you think those will we see now could be the beginning of a launch a correction. i think that's the question that everyone is asking themselves on trading floors around the world today we have seen these and flu fears flare up in february and march for example there was another and scare where we saw stocks especially tech stocks getting hit really hard but then stocks were able to recover quite quickly from that and find themselves back out record highs quite soon but economists are saying that this time might be different in part because of all of the stimulus that's being unleashed into. colonies particularly the trillions coming from the u.

you're elegant relative to the european central bank which is a political control so that's the lesson of the 20th century max you have to remove the currency crisis from government control right now governments are 100 percent in control of the currency and they're heading in the wrong direction yeah the bunda spank was really sensitive flash and very disciplined then. drag it was over there at the e.c.b. and the e.c.b. essentially took over from the abundance bank when the introduction of the euro and then he started to do all this quantitative easing ally policy and expanding their balance sheet dramatically and so they lost all their discipline and they become a basket case just like the u.s. dollar you know one of your colleagues alister mcleod over there called money always excellent alister mcleod you know he says he thinks the dollar is going to affect him collapse you know he said he doesn't even think it's going to make it to the 50th anniversary this august stan druckenmiller has quote very very short the dollar so there's one thing to say all the dollars fading away and tha

central banks. kailey: let's talk about the european central bank. point does the euro become a problem area for the ecb, at what level -- at what point does the euro become a problem area for the ecb, at what level? derek: certainly the annual inflation. when you look at the euro on a trade-weighted basis, it is close to record highs, but the pace is still not at a level that i think would be problematic. we are talking potentially .1 to .2 percentage points impact on inflation. if my forecast on the euro-dollar were to materialize over the next six months. yes, they play lipservice to that being of concern, but i do not ultimately think it has a huge impact on overall inflation dynamics at the levels i am talking about. guy: can we come back to the issue of credibility? you firmly believe the fed will do what it says it is going to do. what about the bank of england? we had comments yesterday talking about the possibility that we could get rate hikes next year, and that puts it in line with a bunch of other central banks, the u.k. economy accelerat

even the european central bank might not be too happy to see it getting this from. -- this strong. haslinda: we continue to track the euro. you can follow more on the story and all of the day's trading at our markets live log, that is on the bloomberg market go, analysis from expert editors so you can find out what is affecting your investments right now. the biden administration to delay by two weeks a ban on u.s. investments in certain chinese companies, according to sources, officials drop guidelines to clarify a trump era policy but it confused wall street. let's bring in our next guest from beijing. why the delay? tom: it confused wall street and they don't want to see a repeat of that. they give themselves an additional two weeks to try and get this right. they want to make sure there is clarity around how thisban applies not just of the companies, but also their subsidiaries, the chinese telecoms. they are concerned about how it applies to their subsidiaries. sources are told that they are stepping away from the span -- not stepping away, just want to make sure they have it

yves: i think we are seeing territories where there is no reason for major concern at the european central banke more interesting question is, what could trigger a move significantly out of that trading range? more concern on inflation in the u.s. and that's not a function of ecb. maybe a perception that the ecb is getting to hawkish, and could push the euro further out and create some euro level concerns. but overall, there's not much going on in currencies. other than fundamental forces pushing the renminbi slowly but surely higher. that's all favored currency, but were not so keen on cash and low risk assets of the treasury, but if someone wants to keep some money in such instruments, the preferred choice is renminbi related government bonds. annmarie: yesterday francoise gilroy said the ecb is not there yet when it comes to the likes of tapering. you have canada, new zealand getting out front. at some point the fed, can it push the ecb ahead? yves: i think every central bank has to have its own methods of normalizing. i think the ecb has been through it before. we are not in a situation in

we learn from this crisis that the european central bank has valuable monetary policy.k that all these efforts are very well known. divergence means adding more difficulty to those policies and the euro area. the resurgence [inaudible] these parties are lesson popularity. it doesn't mean that if we leave the country behind, their consensus cannot come back. it could. [inaudible] the majority of european citizens are a part of these projects. i think they will interpret the preferences. others might do it because of the fear of exit. [inaudible] it would have very high cost could be measured by the degree of financial integration that there is between countries. i like to look at the statistics on cross-border exposure of banks. if you compute the expansion of french banks to italy, it's analogy [inaudible] how deep the cost would be. [inaudible] i think it will be a catalyst for working more together. european citizens like that. surveys show that more than 50% are in favor. annmarie: thank you so much. her latest research, make or break. head of economics research at b

continue to see that rate impulse providing support for the euro, and that is because the european central banks unlikely to step into curb that rise in yields because financial conditions remain accommodative, and especially when that rates move is backed up by that strong recovery outlook, we are seeing inflation expectations climb, which is what they want to see. so i would expect that through the summer months, and options are positioned this way as well, that we are going to see the euro continued to extend higher with further support coming from ongoing dollar weakness. guy: is ecb going to have a problem? last time the pushback was one dollar 22 cents, but that is when the economy was really cratering. the reopening narrative is starting to gain more traction. are they going to be silent for now? where it ecb have an issue? lara: it is really -- laura: it is really all about the pace of the move. i don't think they are looking at one specific threshold level, but like you mentioned, the contrast this time around are those inflation expectations. so looking at five-year five-year metrics

is the federal reserve here doing too much does it need to pull back and has maybe the european central banknough? how do you see central bankers here and in europe doing their respective jobs? >> that is another excellent point. you have an excellent view of the trans atlantic dimension here the same thing it is very early on. i don't think we have seen global economies being stopped the way they were and rebounding massively the way they are today. what i can share here is, as you said, retail activity and wh wholesale activity, without the fed intervention and government programs on both sides i don't think we would have benefitted from the markets and in europe and it has been a massive stabilizer for cap term markets. is there going to be a need for adjustment going forward possibly i think the central banks, brian, are equipped to adapt and adjust and monitor any of the exits by the commodity prices. >> we just talked about in the intro. 112 billion euro in financing across the bnp family globally with we we are focused on the united states the global expansion, jean-yves. is it global

the forward guidance it's a bit of how we want to, you know, tweak the policy function the european central bank also tweaked the policy function with the condition being a full factor to take on when you decide to, you know, update your policy what it means is that there is indeed this idea that central banks are buying a bit of time for fiscal policy makers to do their job. look at what janet yellen said to jay powell, let me handle it. so i think this is really something that's a bit nerve-racking because i think central banks want to overstay their welcome, i would say, just to ensure there's no financial instability issues at the same time, many finance mensters around the world said we can do the heavy lifting this time around. there's fiscal dominance that's at play and a vested interest. some want to see quite a controlled level of inflation, especially the vigilantes out there. others don't want them to stop because this has been very lucrative. you have to see where people are coming from and why people can be so aggressive toward policy makers i think we're going to see policy -- fisc

michael: the european central bank said today in its financial stability review it sees remarkable exuberancen markets these days, which obviously takes us old guys back to alan greenspan's irrational exuberance. we remember what happened a few years after that. do you see any parallels to today's markets, to asset prices? pres. bostic: i do not spend a lot of time worrying about asset prices, but i will say there is a lot of drive that is driven by profits and profitability. we have seen this through the pandemic period. the markets are speaking for themselves. there is a lot of reason to be optimistic about how the economy will progress and we will have to see whether the bed that investors are making gets worn out for the next several months. michael: the ecb went on to say that spillover from equity pricing could be substantial. you take into account the effect u.s. markets could have on other economies around the world when you're considering policy? pres. bostic: we are the u.s. central bank so we primarily focus on the impact of our policy on the united states. it is the case that in a

is deeply into negative territory, when you still look at the big amounts of stimulus the european central bankding, and they probably will have to continue providing that for some period. i think when you get close to zero, you will see buyers come back into the markets for german bones. anna: what about gilts? what are your thoughts? we have the much stronger than expected cpi number last week. we look to cpi data this week, including from the u.k.. i wonder what your expectations there are. guest: the one bit of data i am really interested in looking at this week is the cpi number. the growth data has been a little bit better than expected over the last month or so. when i look at the u.k., they are stuck halfway between where we are with the u.s. and australia and new zealand, at the higher end of the market yields, and those negatively yielding securities in japan. i feel like the gilts should be closer to the u.s. than europe. i think that will be one of the interesting things to keep an eye on over the next couple days or so. anna: something else we are watching is the dynamics in the bo

dollar it would be uncomfortable for the european central bank but so far they have not said much. closer to 125, you would expect they will become a little stronger in their wording to try and force it down but for now the euro is justified by this changed particularly between bond -- bund german yields in the treasury. you will probably see increment on most for the dollar to go slightly weaker. until someone says that is enough. it hasn't happened yet. shery: -- haidi: meanwhile, all quiet on the crypto front. >> will you can't rely on it for too long. the gyrations have been extraordinary. we have seen volatility -- up to 140% 30 day, the must year when we saw in march a crater in financial assets even though they do not reach 100 so we can tell it is quite extra near and, but people will be thinking that possibly 30,000 is a short-term for bitcoin after it bounced off of that. i think we are coming into it particularly for retail traders, there will be a lot of retail traders who have been caught out and they have to set up assets to pay for losses in crypto. we have a while t

we are not expecting the federal reserve are european central bank to react in concert to that pickupa: let me ask you about that, because one of the features of the selloff in stocks yesterday, and we are told everyone was concerned about inflation, breakevens reacted as if they were concerned about inflation. yet, the u.s. 10 year yield did not move much. it did not participate all that much in that selloff in stocks we were sing yesterday. is that because people are not joining the same dots between higher inflation and fed response as they might previously? because the fed has said many times they want to see progress on the unemployment front. thushka: excellent point, anna. it's like you read my mind. i was just looking at the same thing. there's all these headlines about inflation fears, where the 10 year yield hardly budged on a nominal basis. i think this is the power of the central banks anchoring those real rates. what i would highlight, though, is your point about the equity market concern, especially these longer duration equity markets that are, you know, the tech sector

the european central bank may be coming to a point where it is not so tolerant of the strength in the euro, close to 122 could be the pain threshold for the ecb. they have a big meeting in june and they may start to push back against your strength as well. that would also be good for the u.s. dollar. rishaad: mark cranfield in singapore making sense of all the daytrading on the markets. you can follow his blog on mliv we have a schism in congress and headache for the white house. let's get to the first word news with vonnie quinn in new york. vonnie: president biden saying he will not allow in action to upend is infrastructure plan. the white house says he will change course if it becomes clear a bipartisan approach is impossible. senate democrats last week and a puzzle from the republicans to shave off $550 million from the original plan. republicans went infrastructure to be confined to highways, planes and airports, as opposed to bidens broader vision? >> the question is whether republicans will meet the efforts the president is showing. it is a sincere effort to move this cou

and, by the way, they're printing just between powell and the european central bank $250 billion a month, $3 trillion a year. there's no way that's going to continue forever. something's gotta give, and as jon said, inflation may be run amok one day. i hope it's wrong. >> hey, jackie, if i could throw in a point -- jackie: go ahead. >> one thing i want to say about the fed is, you know, there's a lot of worry about the fed kind of pulling back on these policies. i would point out that the fed has been -- in the past decade of pulling back on these policies. they -- [audio difficulty] quantitative easing, the bond-buying programs. it's hard to even remember anymore, 2012, 2013 -- [laughter] they've started raising interest rates. at the end of the day, the market kept rising. we had a long bull market through the fed's pulling back last time around. and i think the point here that we're making is an important one, is that the real risk is that the fed lets this all get out of control and something actually get forced on it and they have to react more aggressively than they would otherwise

inflation, more than double, in month of april, we are watching the uk and european markets, the european central banking in japan and china averages lower markets no hong kong korea closed for holidays "mornings with maria" is live right now. maria: and spending in focus, of course, president biden traveling to michigan yesterday you urging compromise with republican lawmakers on proposed 2 and a third trillion-dollar spending plan. >> a vice president and i have had a number of meetings in oval office with republican leaders in congress members of congress. we believe we can find the bipartisan deal in infrastructure, and we look forward to hearing more details their proposals submit proposed later today or tomorrow one thing is clear we will compromise but doing nothing is not an option. maria: this as a putt you toureded ford's electric vehicle factor speaking on need to invest in american he innovation, joining me john barrasso back with us all morning mitch roschelle, patrice, senator thanks very much for being here we so appreciate you joining us, after your very important meetings yesterday on

i never thought we would have a call, joe, where we say that the fed may even lag the european central bankbout thinking with the fed. it's not because european growth is better, it's not. they don't have a looser fiscal policy than we do. we have a looser fiscal policy it's not that inflation is higher it's not it's not because there's more risk taking going on, it's just that the fed with this new monetary framework has gotten itself pinned into a corner and they're not sure how to exit. >> do you think that the tail is wagging the dog in terms of crypto or it's just all part of the same phenomenon we're seeing, the air coming out of the sails, mohamed? pop culture and business, a lot of times they merge. elon musk on snl is looking like an important moment for all kinds of reasons, tesla tied up in bitcoin would you say the tail is wagging the dog or it's just one big sort of reckoning? >> so it's certainly part of a big phenomenon i don't call it a reckoning yet, but phenomenon, which is liquidity. if you start shaking a little bit of confidence in the liquidity paradigm, you will get t

central banks. matt: if you separate the tokens from the software, we saw a few weeks ago the european investment banksllion euros of digital bonds on the theory of platform. it does not necessarily mean you want to buy either, but it shows you the value of the platform. bitcoin has a limited supply. doesn't that make it a store value? william: it fluctuates. store value fluctuates quite a bit. it is unclear you'll be able to maintain the store value. it is often played up against gold. gold had a really of substance. the issue of digital coins will ultimately be privacy. most of the uses, to me, from what i've been able to read or observe of these digital coins have been for illegal activities or let's say untaxable activities. if you go back a year to the cares act to make the money had been delivered through the digital currency with the identification surrounding that, on the one hand it would be more efficient. a lot of the money went to people that should not have gotten it, but i think you could have gotten all of it to the right. . places the problem is that is a privacy issue here. that gets b

european chamber of commerce in china. anna: very interesting conversation. maria tadeo, our brussels correspondent. thank you to maria for bringing us that. coming up, central banks the market outlook with our market live team editor. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back to the market open. european equity markets are on the front. u.s. futures also point higher. ven, our strategist joins us. central banks are making decisions today. what will you be watching for? ven: in terms of the bank of england, we will be watching for expectations in growth forecast, there is no doubt they will do that. what will be interesting is what they say on bond purchases. it will and sometime in november, early december. the slowing of bond purchases is necessary if they are going to continue with those bond purchases to the end of the year. we will be watching for any signs of hawkish this although i do not expect it. anna: globally, we are thinking about inflation. away from the u.k. experience, inflation globally, what are your thoughts on where we have gone to on that inflation narrative? ven: fed officials have pushback on the notion of a taper because they are not concerne

expecting -- if european equity start to outperform like they have been, that is where i think people could be surprised by the euro. based on the growth, the value, and the relative central-banky, the euro still sells at 1.22 and you buy it back around 1.18. what could be -- lisa: what could be the trigger for money into european equities? mark: i think it comes down to the growth in the vaccine catch up story. the problem is there's not enough on the other site to say there's a bunch of factors to buy the euro. it is a vaccine story, the growth is important. we do not see the carry argument, we do not see the yield curve steepness. commodities is not a big driver of the euro and that is why you want to look elsewhere like the norwegian krone. i think with the euro, what you need to see is it is already in the price. most of our models say the euro is overdone. that is why we are a little wary of chasing it because you do not have a value story along with the stellar growth story. you have a pickup story that is well known by the market. for the equity story to work out, we need to see what happens with the german elections later this year. if we get a pipit to a green led mo

central banks talking about tapering early. also perhaps in canada. i think that is a worry for the europeanlation getting out of control. inflation is a temporary stop by should not be a concern. it may be a delayed reaction to the inflation numbers that keep on crawling up and are not going away. anna: in terms of inflation and expectations, are you considering that they could be going higher? u.s. inflation links to securities, are you protecting yourself? on that? ? paul: building into the idea we have a temporary spike going through for a variety of reasons. longer term we have to pick up inflation if we think it will be more sticky. went to get past the seller spike we draw back to a level that is higher than started. some markets are starting to project a little too much and feeling a bit rich and started to taper off. inflation markers around the world, you mentioned europe and also australia, new zealand, canada, they seem to reflect a lot of inflation protection. anna: thinking about the way the market prices in the inflation, looking at u.s. 10 year yields, the context around the

central banks originally started with. no doubt we will return to this conversation on future occasions. let's think about where we are on the europeany. european finance ministers are gathering in lisbon for the first in person meeting since september. optimism about the recovery has seen european stocks jumped the most in two weeks. maria tadeo joins us from lisbon. live on the ground in lisbon, this is very exciting, for an in person meeting of these finance ministers. they will be busy assessing the recovery. what is the mood like? maria: yes, anna. just the very fact that we are in lisbon encapsulates the mood and story here on the ground, this idea europe reopening, tourism picking up on the economy accelerating. yesterday, i spoke with the portuguese finance minister, and pascal donahue and asked them, doesn't mean we will see faster growth this year in the euro area -- does this mean we will see faster growth this year and the euro area -- in the euro area? >> we have become very optimistic. now, the vaccination program is working very well. the number of cases is extremely low. the numbers remain extremely low. >> i believe

171009 and dominated european affairs from all the decade he's widely revered as a military genius and boston administrator he created the legal code the high school system and central bank which laid the basis for post revolutionary france but some see him as a colonizer a warmonger and in slaver at 18 o 2 he restored slavery by decree in the french caribbean and reunion black historians say the napoleon's links to slavery remain unaddressed in france which still grapples with its colonial past the crowd is the 1st french president to all the napoleon's death in more than 2 decades thomas is a political scientist he joins us now live from paris via skype could have you with us tell us where do you stand on the podium but apart. well. the interesting thing would be to just look at the facts stage a coup against. revolutionary france make it a military dictatorship for his own profit yes it did. want one the full minutes are extraordinary military conqueror wonderful extraordinary news trying to oh yes it was to want a while longer not exactly in fact it was in the so of defense if i may in every case except the spain war in spain and war in russia all the all the situati

central banks come in. if it comes -- if they come up -- anna: thank you so much. that is it for the european market open.eep focused on the markets. nasdaq futures up. misty london. this is bloomberg. ♪ s bloomberg. ♪ >> there are a lot of other devices. >> anyone who is fully vaccinated can participate an indoor and outdoor activities without wearing a mask or social distancing. >> we are anxious about it. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance: early edition" with francine lacqua. francine: good morning everyone. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance: early edition"