jonathan: the big call with saudi-euro, the other big call was euro-dollar.le everyone is easing, the dollar get stronger, is that likely the story for 11? simon: it will not be as take a story as we have seen since july. the weekly gains were unprecedented. on a momentum basis i think we will struggle with the exact same event of. what we -- exact same momentum. but we are seen recently is -- we cannot sustain the gains we have seen over the next 11 months. jonathan: what forces the feds to capitulate and what is your conviction trade off the back of that? jonathan: capitulate as in titan -- simon: capitulate as in tighten? jonathan: as in not tighten. simon: i'm convinced the recovery is sustainable. we've seen said -- central banks tighten and then pull back. it is more likely the inflation side that forces them to hold ground. jonathan: the big trade? simon: in the moment it is euro-yen. easy down to one point 30 and below. jonathan: thank you for joining us. as we head to the break, a quick check in on markets. this is 100 down by 37 points. the dax is a

the euro trading at 1139 at the moment.greek bond yields have taken a step up compared to yesterday. the ten year is at 10.35%. we look here at the shorter end. the three year 18.2. so elevated as the risk increases once again. friday they request an extension of the bailout. the ecb will meet on whether to retain emergency funding. speaking this morning the greek president said the ball is firmly in the greek court. >> hope they will ask for an extension program and we can allow flexibility inside the program. they can put in their political priorities. we will see whether the program remains on track but that is the way forward but it's up to the greeks. we cannot make them or we will not ask them. it's really up to them. we stand ready to work with them the next couple of days. i never go into if questions. i'm just telling you what i think would be wise. >> in addition to following new developments with greece and it's creditors let's give you a run down of this trading day. they release the monthly housing market index

the euro rising. weakest the swiss franc has been to the euro since the swiss national bank released itself. the aussie/dollar is almost, such a big move before the central-bank's meeting. this the first rebound in 4 days. it goes like this. on the 20th of january, it was 50% that the rba would drop rates. higher central banks against the 2 months off hiring. sydney house prices up by 13%. goldman sachs indicating a substantial commitment to the aussie/dollar to travel lower. a real engagement against the dollar. i have a look at the yuan. what are the chinese -- the first contraction in manufacturing and two years. what next for the yuan? is that is the question in my mind. the polling we have done that they will not interfere with the currency. moving almost at the maximum. the chinese do not like just do like the currency to move every day by a bandwidth. it is moving toward the maximum. this one a new subject we will pick up. something i will ask our next guest about. >> plenty to talk to our next

the euro stocks 50 a good gauge of stocks across the euro zone now. trading slightly lower. profit booking down about 14 points at this moment. >> let's have a quick look at bonds which have seen a little bit of move yesterday. the ten year u.s. treasure saw a little bit of profit taking off descent retail earnings at 1.82%. the ten year in germany still very low the euro had a strong day yesterday. it eased off 15 basis points a day still somewhere from the lows of the 111 handle it touched after the announcement of qe. sterling is flat. that's despite the data coming out on the annual global trade deficit for 2014 has come in for the trade -- total trade deficit of 34.8 billion versus 2013 which was 33.78 and overall the headline coming out according to dow jones that it's the largest since comparable records began in 1998. >> a lot of that has to do with the cheaper oil imports. a big part of the trade deficit number widening in the month of december. let's take a look at the top stocks right now. sharply lower following a in front of the warning. they said annual profits

of euro area gdp.nto that mix, credit conditions are improving on the periphery and last but not least you have the pace of fiscal consolidation slowing. these four factors which are fueling euro area growth has us more optimistic. jonathan: credit conditions. the data we had this week, optimists say it is less bad and the pessimists say it is a false dawn, what is really encouraging you? guest: the main thing is to you have the fragmentation of the euro system after the crisis. when you had that easing policy in the strongest countries ironically. the countries that needed the transition of easing monetary policy so the periphery got very tight monetary policy. so really and is been an true effect and a call in propagating the euro area crisis. what encourages me now is the evidence that euro area credit conditions particularly in the periphery are easing. so you see bank lending and borrowing costs falling to corporate quite significantly and also more recently in italy. you are seeing credit supply

edmond would you value a euro and a greek bank the same as you would a euro in a german bank this morning? >> ultimately yes. ultimately yes because i think that we are just playing right now. greece is going to have to come for a deal. they're pushing for the best deal they can get. who wouldn't and they're pushing back saying basically, tough. you have to accept some conditions. we'll loosen but we're not going to give you everything you want but if we do that now how is it going to look for us. >> but if you had big savings of euros in a greek bank surely you would want to move some of it elsewhere, wouldn't you? >> depends. if you were nongreek you wouldn't have any savings in a greek bank would you? frankly the capital flows out of greece have been monumental already. who's left? the only people that have money there are the middle class that don't have quite enough money to be worth moving outside of greece. >> let's talk about the developing story about the ecb denying that they're suggesting the greeks to introduce capital controls but maybe that's not such a bad idea. there has b

euro zone and being in the euro is that it is irrevocable. all of a sudden the euro becomes revocable. market participants will look to other countries saying where else could this happen. that moves that bank run to probably italy, possibly to spain. i don't know if that's going to happen, but you need to watch this. if everything goes to the middle, everything goes to germany and the euro zone fractures. look for a significantly lower euro. if you see the euro diving, that's going to be your first sign there's a real problem out there. number two, look at german yields, if they start to go recorder low because they're all right at record lows,s th s tht problem. if you can't get your money out of the lit italy, spain, greeceu buy gold. i bought some gld today. i'll short more of the euro. >> with more on what the future could hold for greece, let's bring in the dennis garvin. you think that greece should leave? do you think that greece will leave, though? >> first of all, if i were cyprus, i would leave, i would absolutely throw down the ga

dollar against the euro. >> we have three recommendations. euro yen and swiss frank. as far as today is concerned, our strong focus is the dollar yen. we think it picks up. the clear reason for this is positioning. we don't think the market is positioned short yen at all. relatively significant short euro exposure. therefore the one that can really fly we think is dollar yen and we have a target in the next few months of it moving up to 125. >> thank you for joining us this morning. now vladimir putin does not expect the crisis in ukraine to lead to a full blown war against russia and it's neighbor. putin said such an apocalyptic scenario is unlikely. the president also said he did not see the need for another peace meeting with ukraine and the west. >> meanwhile, senior ukrainian government sources told cnbc cnbc kiev needs more weapons, cash and further sanctions against russia. ukraine could come under marshall law within a month if the missed ceasefire deal fails. head to cnbc.com to read the full story on the ukraine crisis. the eu is buying a big bank proposal t

euros.t was below expectations. the average forecast was 531 million euros excluding exceptional items bnp generated a profit of 7 billion euros. they have a strong operating profit. this is what the cfo told me. >> you had a good operating performance. it's bottom line at 7 billion euros but the bank took remedial actions. and basically all of this is reflected in the top line. the top line has grown all across the businesses. if you look exceptional elements it's up 3.2%. costs are well under control on the back of our simple and efficient program. risk is down by 2.5% so all of that for me makes good operational performance. on top of that our balance sheet is rock solid if i can say. the aqr when by very well and on top of that we have a core equity of 10.3% which includes a dividend of 1.5 euro which includes several several acquisitions. so all in all good operating performance. >> in terms of different businesses the investment bankment was the most dialic unit. while the retailing ba

you see a little bit of a move in euro-swiss down. angela merkel and french president franÇoise hollande are heading to moscow to press vladimir putin for a cease-fire in ukraine. it comes after the pair met with the ukrainian president. ukraine's economy getting pummeled as a result. the currency plunged yesterday after the country devalued its currency in efforts to stave off default and win imf aid. ryan chilcote is in moscow. run ius through things. this trip, how long is this meeting set to last, what time? >> so the german and french leaders arrive later today. there aids are here. the talks begin at 1:00 p.m. moscow time 5:00 p.m. the leaders sit down. angela merkel and franÇoise hollande met with the ukrainian president yesterday for five hours. they say they have a plan that maintains the territorial integrity of ukraine and brings peace. they are coming to moscow to pitch a cease-fire to the russian president as a starting point, but there is deep skepticism. you are well aware i have been chasing these peace talks since the

the euro 16% higher than now.ese are considered to be positive factors that could help to boost the french economy. if you look at numbers for business sentiment, a banker friend survey showed sentiment was a 10 month high. that is a reason to be cheerful. numbers from germany on the gdp front, 27 minutes from now. we will get the complete numbers for the eurozone. plenty more to come as we go through the morning. if you are interested in the french economy specifically, we will be talking to one big company a little later. the ceo of l'oreal. he will be speaking to us exclusively here at bloomberg. >> the top stories, angela merkel says russia will face further sanctions they do not lament the piece deal she helped broker -- do not implement the peace deal she helped broker yesterday. the cease-fire arrangement is due to begin on sunday. greek prime minister elect says his nation is seeking a new contract with the euro area on how to continue the bailout. this came after he met with eu leaders. he said their goal

for 10 years, european companies and l'oreal, we have suffered from undervalued euro, so now the eurots level when it was introduced 14 years ago and so that is very good news. it's very good news because it will help our cost structure, because it will also of course, help the translation in euro of our profitability worldwide. it's a very good news and we will make the most of it. >> does that mean you might lower prices of your products? >> no. we will strengthen the role on the planet, and it will definitely also help, as i said you know, the translation in you're re of ourselves and our profits. >> what about the currency in emerging markets? tell us about the show there and the outlook for asia especially china. >> after a period last year where we saw some instability in different parts of the world like brazil, other places, now the situation seems to be more stable with one exception, of course, which is russia where the rebel decree a lot. so we think this should be pretty steable for next year and pretty ok for us and we want, in 2015, to continue the stronger market conque

you income rising to 511 million euros from 191 million euros a year earlier. net income has increased but it has missed the 505 to seven -- 557 million euros expected. economic stagnation in france and a slowdown in russia where it has one of the largest retail branch networks have weighed on profit. profit from french retail net worth fell 15% to 241 million euros in the fourth quarter. that's the lowest in two years. the measure of financial strength falling to 10.1% at the end of december, a drop of 26 basis points from three months earlier. its russian business posted an 11 million euro loss in the fourth quarter, during which that country's economy suffered from a collapse in oil prices and a plunge in the ruble. it is an increase year on year but still an earnings miss for the fourth quarter as france's number two bank. >> says he get general mavs says it does not have any exposure to greece. the chief executive has been speaking to caroline connan. he says he is convinced an agreement over greek debt is probable. >> globally speaking, on the macroeconom

grecian negotiate an orderly exit from the euro. -- greece should negotiate an orderly exit from the euro. that's according to our next guest. thank you for joining us. an orderly exit from the euro is what you would propose. would an orderly exit the possible? >> everything is possible in this world in particular. private investors have been able to escape. greece has received two hundred 63 billion euros of public credit, which was 143% of gdp. about half of that money was used to pay back loans by foreign investors. they are saved. if greece exits there won't be a contagion to the capital market. the greek spreads went up. no one else is impressed by that. >> all the spreads show people don't think reese will leave. how can you be sure your interpretation is correct? >> it's very clear. the spreads or 10%. the market expects greece to default but no one else. usually the other spreads will also go up but this time not. the markets clearly isolate greece from the rest. we have rescue packages for the rest. the contagion via the ca

as you can see the euro dollar is at 114 and up .23%. the big move you saw earlier came off the back of the german gdp number which came in much better than expected. >> let's take a look at the markets. they did end higher yesterday. the s&p closing at its highest level this year trading within.2%. so despite the fears around russia and ukraine and uncertainty around greece u.s. markets continue to move higher. having to do with better than expected earnings and stronger than expected data but that raises the fear of whether rates will be hiked sooner rather than later. the dow indicating a higher move in premarket trade. the nasdaq has been on fire. much of that having to do with the out performance of shares in apple and s&p indicating a higher move by around four points in premarket trade but as we were discussing the global 300 index fractionally higher. of course a lot for investors to keep in mind. this week we had the russia ukraine ceasefire agreement. that does commence on february 15th which is this sunday and of course the gr

come very close to the euro group position.nique hasn't been released yet, and only then will we will able to understand how significant the concessions greece actually made were. but i don't expect the euro group to make significant concessions. germany was very, very firm yesterday. the finance minister said no to an earlier letter which was released by the greeks and seems to have got his way. but, again, let's see the communique first but at the moment it seems that greece has made the most significant concessions. >> the prime minister has requested for the loan period to be extended by another six months. if granted to him, how would he make use of this time that has been given to him? >> well as i heard euro zone officials saying greece wanted the money for free. i mean the problem with the greek request was always that greece obviously wanted the cash from the euro -- euro zone partners, but at the same time wanted to have time to negotiate a better deal in terms of conditions. that means less austerity for its public f

that company operating profit dropped just under 600 million euros down from 700 million euros. since 2014, 230 billion euros left. sanofi has a new drug on his register. rbs seems to like what it is hearing. additional top of one million times the loss seven in a row. it is considerably lower. picking up the u.s. assets for $3 billion. and ultra bank, it is pretty phenomenal. taking a charge off in the bank. ultra has been able to release some of the reserves. the bonuses are dying and are down. sanofi down and allianz has not open as of yet and that could be a mover of the day. >> i am looking at the ftse 100 and it is lower. it has been 10 minutes as we talked about greek so let's do it. yabus varoufakis said he is counting on draghi to avoid a default. he sounded confident that the country will not have a cash flow problem. >> i am optimistic because we all struggle to through long hours of discussions. to come to this stage where we have an agreement that our loan with our partners and institutions. i find it hard to imagine that europe and the imf will allow us to what is

a happens, we sell the euro, be happens we sell the euro, see happens, we sell the euro.ere any reason to buy the euro? >> if we see a favorable compromise coming out of the musi meeting, we can see a squeeze higher in the euro. the euro is trading favorably in some places. we are seeing more positive signs on the equity front. the portfolio data is signaling that. the euro is fundamentally still overvalued. it still has room to run to the downside. the political situation certainly does not help that. >> let's get back to the politics again. what you think will be the sticking point is the week progresses? will it come down to the greek linking debt to growth? >> it is going to come down to whether or not greece gets the bridging agreement that they have asked for. i think the technical details will be important in the assessed that there will need to be some renegotiations of the terms of the agreement. the details remain to be seen. >> we talked so much about -- in 2012. there is a lot of hype about how every single varoufakis headline comes across bloomberg. how diffe

euros in december.ows are increasing and ecb's reluctance to offer leeway only 3.3 billion were added this week, this may mean that liquidity issues will arise, serious ones and capital controls may be necessary. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us. deposit flight, the big story in greece. greek banks remain a concern. deposit flight speeding up as the months progressed and we get seemingly no closer to a deal. you see the chart on your screen. does this week in greece's hand as they go into negotiations with their creditors? that chart courtesy of our next guest. let's put that question to him. is this a noose around greece's hand? guest: absolutely. deposit flight is really crucial to understanding the dynamics of this crisis. deposit flight, as you said, has been speeding up since the start of the year. it is really putting a lot of financial pressure on the greek government to reach a deal. that is why we've seen them blank a number of times over the last few days. jonathan: yesterday, they

euro yen but i am of our of the euro you a destiny euro u.s.ar. we know every worldwide currency want to get as cheap as they can because they want to be able to work more goods and that is becoming a problem in an of itself. smu accountant, we know russia, the ukraine, germany and, will be meeting for peace talks in the ukraine. will that factor at all on the market? + sure it will we have seen again, genetic runs throughout. -- traumatic problems throughout. countries around the world. that in conjunction with the governments themselves trying to force currencies down by buying bonds and making their currencies worth less will be a problem. this could have a very big effect feared it could be the factor that creates the rally i'm looking for because i really want to be a seller at 170. >> the word of the week their mommy talk about trading futures, we often use the word and hear the word, and tell us what it means in the context of the euro dollar? >> it is not a big -- as big a word, but in the commodities space in general, when you see the

you can see as euro begins to assess, the euro-dollar is just coming off.y still short the euro relative to the dollar because momentum is building. we just had that conversation with commonwealth rank, which is next week. yellin and her testimony will be a more likely scenario to judge the next move of the federal reserve. the dollar index is completing its first positive week in almost a month. what you have got is the note from them. morgan stanley basically are saying they are building tentatively. they are adding to their dollar positions. the other point is there is a good story i am trying to find. german government bond yields over u.s. government bond yields. almost 1.7%. extra premium. that extra premium to have a u.s. bond then german. that differential is important. that is what drives foreign exchange markets. it is the widest and 1989. u.s. bond yields over there g7 counterparts is over 5%. interest rates and the virgins dominate the foreign exchange landscape. >> we are getting some breaking news from danone, the world's biggest yogurt maker.

the eurozone or the euro. but we cannot go on in this situation. >> well, dr. michael fox is economic adviser to german chancellor angela merkel. when i spoke to him, i asked why his government was so quick to reject greece's offer when some quite liked it. >> first of all, we had a very clear agreement on monday on the last economic meeting with finance ministers. they said very clear that all the agreements which has been made have to be accepted by the greek government. and the letter which has been sent by mr. varoufakis, did not snow that he was accepting the so-called memorandum of understanding, which was the one that gave all the austerity measures or showed all the austerity measures. and he didn't want to accept the austerity measures. that was very clear. it was an offense against what had been okayed on monday. and therefore, i mean it's logical that we can accept it. >> yes, but doctor this is an negotiation, isn't it? there's some give and some take and greece has backed down the middle of this.

the equivalent of 20,000 euros per family, plus a small pension. he says it will not bring his brother back, but he appreciates the gesture. >> we're thankful for this expression of concern. the government dan's by its children. it's not about the money. we thank the president and the other authorities. they have given us the feeling egypt stands as one and that there's no difference tween muslims and christians. >> in the past egyptian copts have often felt marginalized by the government and the muslim majority. now an act of terrorism has brought the religions in egypt closer together. >> to somalia now where a legislator and deputy mayor are among those reported killed in twin suicide bombings at a hotel near the presidential palace. other high-ranking officials were wounded. >> islamist militants say they are behind the ambush on the central hotel in the capital mogadishu, which is popular with politicians. the al qaeda-affiliated group has staged a series of attacks in the past in an effort to overthrow the government in somalia. >> an unusual

i think that the euro could be made better but now we have to assume the euro as a reality. we have to work inside it. >> joining us now to discuss more is darren head of fixed interest at investment limited. thank you for joining us. if the market was really concerned about the rise and popularity of this party in spain that would be reflected in the bond market but we're not seeing yields rising. >> i think markets are pretty much signed up to the fact that a deal will be done on greece and as regard to that the leftest party, have markets that take that view. in europe what they'd like to do is put greece to bed and stop the rise of these antiausterity parties rising in recent months. >> when it comes to the six month extension that greece is talking about, what will this achieve? will they be able to find common ground? will they see eye to eye? that's clearly not the case. >> let's think what's the worst case scenario? a deal can't be done and that means greece leaving the euro. it means we have the first eu euro country in euro area so i think both sides realize what's

for 25 million euros. -- 425 million euros. a missing estimate, below 2013.t reduced capacity of 4 million available kilometers because of the strikes. revenues were cut iby 5 million. if you look at the operating income of air france. and you take out the cost of the strike the operating income was actually positive last year. but of course the strike was not the only problem. they are facing strong competition from low-cost carriers. and the middle east airlines. they had to face ticket prices dropping last year. >> what is the outlook? you mentioned the budget airlines. the issues they are facing. they also have middle east carriers, middle east and other. they -- abu dhabi. what is the outlook for this carrier? >> the year 2015 will be tough for air france. in a statement, they said that outlook has to because shares. it is so cautious they did not want to give a profit goal for this year. last year, they had three profit warnings. they did not want to repeat that. they did not give any price -- precise outlook. they did give an outlook for unit cost redu

keep an i on euros-swiss -- keep an eye on euros-swiss.dan speaks at 615 a.m., that is in brussels. switzerland at the heart of europe. you can see where that is coming. you begin to understand it is really struggling to find this new level, the new floor. the euro is something to touch upon. it dropped yesterday on the back of the breaking up of the talks but it more or less, has recovered. it is a game of prisoner they are playing. in terms of the aussie dollar we are seeing the minutes. the minutes came out for the decision from the australian central bank. the consensus from the market, aussie dollar is rising. they prevaricate it, they were not sure whether they wanted to cut rates in february or march. the market is convinced, you will have to do more. the rba will have to do more to get the currency lower. slightly nearer term, the momentum is upwards. before the rate decision traders were backing 77% probability. a little bit hawkish. one or two decent calls, it looks cheap versus the canadian dollar. a 4% lift aussie dollar, new z

jonathan: another reason to sell the euro?asileios: i think risk for the downside remains firmly in place. unless the unthinkable happened in which greece exits the euro where there will be a period of time with excessive a la tillie, the euro will not be traded on the back of greek development. it is still trading on the diversions between the fed and the major central banks as well as all the discussions about qe. having said all that, i don't think the euro will relapse to parity or below that. i think it could start providing cushion further down the road. we have to take into account that we are seeing some improvement in service. jonathan: it seems that ecb still holds all the cards, thank you for joining me this morning. thank you both. up next, more about greece. and bt has agreed to buy ee. more on that 12.5 billion pound deal after the break. ♪ jonathan: welcome back to "on the move." bt has decided to buy ee for 12.5 billion pounds. caroline hyde joins me now they finally confirmed the deal. caroline: a lovely quote

is euro already.he greece issue, there are two main factors. the first factor is the funding gap. the e.l.a. program sort of fills the gap for time being. so there is not as much risk to have whole banking system. the other issue is the long-term -- the debt burden. what do we do about the debt burden? i really they the greek government is genuine -- genuinely interested and determined to change the image of greece abroad. so i think if they can present the rational enough plan that has them following through with the necessary reforms for greece, i absolutely think that debt forgiveness has to be part of the plan. now whether or not the debt forgiveness comes first or after the reforms are done is going to be one of the sticking points. i think this is a new greece potentially. it is -- you know, at the end of the day a lot of this is about trust, right? the way that the programs, the previous programs were designed. they were designed in a way that highlights the lack of trust between predators and

that is open up to 29.5 billion euros. -- 59.5 billion euros.ould be a bigger crunch in may when bonds become due. >> more on that story at bloomberg.com. >> let's look at some of the other stories. statoil has halted dividend growth. as norway's biggest energy company struggles to whether a plunging energy prices. they reported fourth-quarter operating income of 9 billion norwegian krone. >> in the short-term, i admit i am highly uncertain as to what kind of price environment we will see. we will see volatility. we could see a low oil price environment for some time. i think we are fundamentally in a cycle and we will see a rebound at some point. there are some structural changes fundamental changes for the longer-term, it is to early to see. >> yesterday and prime minister tony abbott says he will oppose a motion brought by liberal party mps. this comes after a party member sent an e-mail saying they must address concerns about him under party rules. the leadership ballot will go ahead. more than half of the 102 liberal mps back emotion. he is

net income rising to 1.3 billion euros from 110 million euros per year. that is when the bank set aside money for legal costs. that 1.3 billion euro figure just below the 1.4 billion average that analysts conveyed. escalating levees on europe's biggest banks will dent 2016 that income by 500 million euros. that will endanger the profitability target once more. the economic recovery is winker -- weaker than the bank had foreseen and interest rates are lower. on the dividend front, bnp will pay 1.5 euros per share for 2014. that is unchanged. it did maintain the payout even though annual net income fell by 97%. it is the lowest since the bank was created by a merger in 2000. bnp paid a record $8.97 billion fine for violating u.s. sanctions against iran, cuba and sudan. the firm is spending 250 million euros to improve compliance. the chief financial officer has been speaking to bloomberg. he began by talking about that u.s. fine. >> of course there is a major exceptional, the settlement to u.s. authorities. as you know the bank has taken remedial action. th

that is euros sterling. ukrainian currency doing a little better at the first sign of hope and a good a 72 hours for stop quickly to the monitor and brendan, this is euro sterling intense, and here is a long-term trend of sterling weakness. some like switzerland, some of the other currencies of great strength or almost at 1/10 deviation. >> what we are seeing is the value of the u.k. got one it created the euro. denmark got it, too. it is having a hard time old into its currency, but there is great value. the northern eurozone is -- tom: the backstory is sweden's central bank making original economic history with a negative interest rate. brendan: and also the promise of additional qe. they have been able to hold out after this and they are now joining that global currency war, but sweden is not immune to this. tom: reading over the weekend to get us interested in the economic than europe. we will call it the european union ballet. germany and greece have dance the dance in the past day as exhausted leaders

similar story for the euro stocks 50. a good gauge of stocks across the euro zone. well, yes, indeed the index is down about four points. keep in mind we have been seeing a vast out performance in the european equities. you can take a look up almost 9%. >> let's have a quick look at bonds because the german yield fell below that of japan yesterday for the first time ever. a significant move over the last three weeks or so since ecb policy action have become very much expected and then delivered. the deal on the ten year in germany. .35%. greek yields just came off their highs as there were positive developments in the negotiations between greece and europe. the euro is slightly soft today. nothing too significant. it's still at 1.146. dollar/yen is seeing the dollar weaken. just want to give you an update on skies stock price which is in deed at the top of the ftse 100. earlier we were reporting the price of be sky be. put that's after first half profits showed a 16% rise which was ahead of forecasts. >> greece's finance minister says a country will never seek finan

in the fourth quarter, 243 million euros. that is up 27 million euros year on year. why am i talking about kara stark? -- about carlsberg? carlsberg well mr. anderson is stepping down. he delivered a flat return. russia will grow. prices will rise. has been cut by 30%. those are your three individual names. stephen major has had the conversation this morning. he's calling the bottom in the near term around 1.6%. target for hbc, 2.3%. that would suggest that you might get a slightly higher dollar. jonathan: great work, manus cranny. that is a man who has nailed the treasury market. equities higher here in london and across europe. double market charges on. the ftse 100 closed yesterday at a 1999 high. on wall street, the s&p 500 that an all-time high. those headlines in other stories usually prompt discussions on bubbles and debates on whether we will get a sizable correction. then you've got the bloomberg school. snapchat said to be raising money that would value the company at $19 billion. it is a disappearing photo and video message app. if that isn't enough to mak

it is 1.9 billion euros. that corresponds with what greece previously said is the interest the ecb are earned from their invest in and in greek bonds. he is saying the money is ours. it is unclear whether the eu subscribes to that view, but it looks like they want to take 1.9 from the bailout fund. that would mean they exit the program at the end of the month and they will be on their own, and they are at the mercy of the ecb on whether or not this liquidity windows are going to be open. in terms of calling the money theirs that seems to be a little provocative. we will see how drug he reacts to that later today. >> fascinating stuff. let's bring in role -- raul. you study emerging markets. it doesn't feel like a developed market situation, does it? >> clearly not. what we look at is the euro releases a lot of pressure. what you want from greece is a complete plan moving towards fiscal surplus. hopefully that will give them the leeway in terms of repayment. that is the way out. on the other side, part of the

there is much more euro supervision of institutions. is it to say that there is a euro fiscal policy? no. i don't think it is that the europeans are short of imagination, they have plenty of it. but they are not at the political stage where they can have a unifying fiscal stage. i understand larry's argument. when you look at the euro area balance sheet, it looks good. a lot better than the u.s.'s. but it is not tradable yet. it is not bankable. there is no fiscal policy that is common to all. their more determined to use that balance sheet to go into binge borrowing at low interest rates. i think is a question of process. massive progress has been made in the last five years thanks to the crisis. i hope it will not take another crisis. to make more progress, but more progress has to be made in terms of the union pursuing the banking unit. but there is huge potential in this part of the world. to think of it as one single economic unit, it is not the case. >> just to larry's point. while fiscal policy will be more important in the years

the future of the euro itself. ben land bbc news. >> lucy we just got a line from the greek prime minister. gosh there's enough hype around this already, isn't it? but he's saying this is a moment for an historic political decision for the future of europe. i just wonder we hear a lot about the german resistance if we can put it that way, they've got a fair number of other leaders right behind them, though, haven't they? >> reporter: it isn't just the germans who feel that an exception should not be made for greece. there are plenty of countries in the eurozone who have been through their own austerity programs and suffered quite a lot of pain countries like ireland and spain, for example. and they feel very firmly at least so far, they've said that greece should not be made a special case. the finnish government came out yesterday and said more or less the same thing. so i think there are countries lined up behind germany and it does promise to be fairly tough talking today. >> i just wondered, it's the dreaded qu

the euro down 1.1324. the u.s. says it's deeply troubled by reports of fighting in eastern ukraine as the ceasefire looks increasingly precarious. this as russia says it began supplying natural gas in eastern ukraine in a response to a decision to suspend shipments. we spoke to the ceo and asked him what this meant to supplies for europe. >> it did not have any effect on the supply to europe because the area is controlled by the terrorists, or a as we say far from those pipelines to ship gas to european union. >> the russian central bank said the peak of the ruble volatility is over. however, the governor said it was too early to talk about calming prices and added the central bank would be ready to reduce capital requirements for banks that encountered difficulties. >>> a look at european markets and we're pretty much bang on flat as we look at things at the moment. yesterday we started down. we then rallied as it looked like we might get a compromise from greece as greece requested an extension which is what they

leaving the euro -- not the euro, but europe. francine: michael are you most concerned about greece and the greek banks or russia? we talk a lot about russia. we talk a lot about sanctions. it doesn't seem the markets have fully priced in what could go wrong. >> i don't think that russia is going to help greece, if you put it this way, because they have their own problems. the situation -- we have to see. from berlin ticky a is closer than berlin to rome. we are very much afraid about the ukraine situation and the situation with russia. i hope that my chancellor isn't the only one who is on speaking terms with putin at the moment but she is able to convince him to fulfill what he promised to do with minsk. francine: the u.s. is still in favor of providing weapons the people on the ground in ukraine to help if the situation doesn't get better very soon. would you be completely opposed to that? >> well, we are not very positive as far as that concerns -- as far as that is concerned. we think sanctions are better. at the moment, the

you see the euro devalue in the yen holding.have said this before you have got the united states sitting there watching and being the one currency that is rallying because everybody else is trying to devalue. thank you to the swiss, they decided to join the currencies that were rallying, so we are happy to have them on that side of the ledger -- [laughter] but it does feel that we are in a global economy, and i do not do disagree with this. the prevailing view is one of the easier ways to stimulate economic growth is to have a low currency to export against and hopefully create tourism and imports with. and it makes sense. >> currency wars the euro-dollar, i'm sure some of you on the panel can help me with this, but the processing power of the euro-dollar is around $11.15.15 $1.16, so the problem is not where we are, it is where we have been over the last couple of years. the problem is qe in the u.s. and tightening in europe by the numbers that i give you before not because keeley did not happen but because of the lending being

and a profit of 6.9 million euros. let's get to annette who is live in frankfurt with more details. >> it's a clear miss what we're hearing from puma and also looking into 2015 it doesn't really sound very promising. because they're also saying that they expect currency swings to weigh on their earnings quite substantially. above all, they're citing the strong dollar as for being one of their major head winds for 2015. but also they're saying they expect slight increases in net profit despite the fact that the currency situation will probably outweigh the benefits of higher sales in regions like the americas. in talking about regions, it's quite interesting to see that only the americas the region is actually doing very well but the sale increases of more than 10%. europe and also asia-pacific -- asia-pacific is growing at the same pace of europe which is really a minimal at .07%. they're saying they're seeing still a bad situation or a difficult economic environment in europe which is of course is true for loads of co

they may leave the euro if the greek exit works. the concern is not not if they leave the euro.t must be financed. >> no economy can survive without cash. they are drawn their money. whether or not the question is of capital control would be put in place to prevent a deeper route. >> if the banks are talking to the ecb -- it is actually the people on the streets saying i want my money now. i will pull it out, put it in my house, under the bed appeared it is safer there than the bank. >> gold rising for a third day. thank you for that. you can get more on that and all the days of top stories at our new digital destination. we bring together the best of bloomberg news, business week and new digital content all in one address =. some breaking news right now -- fourth-quarter earnings coming in at 857.3 million. that is $1.1 billion u.s.. fourth-quarter revenue coming in at $1.5 billion. $2.75 billion in cash at the end of the period. there you go. some capital lending's for you. some other news, more than $15 billion in fines for federal claims of misconduct. rbs is one of several

why has the euro managed to e ke out gains?> it hasn't fallen aggressively further, that is the better way to play it. we had a great deal of uncertainty. we now have a little bit of a war. now, we are getting to the crux of the crisis. we have the finance meanings on wednesday. -- the finance meetings on wednesday. i think that is going to be the real crystallization of whether the euro is going to maintain its current valuation or whether we see further pressure points which seems likely. mr. tsipras suggested that a collision course was inevitable. >> there could be a collision this week, setting us up for another collision on the 18th of february, when the ecb can vote to continue to grant access to their special liquidity scheme. if the ecb decides to cut greece out, would that be an economic or political decision? >> you can argue it both ways. if you look at the mechanisms of the agreement, it is a case of agreeing to fund banks which seem to be solvent. that could be a debating point. we've seen this massive capital sli

about finding -- level for euro swiss. buying euros for the holidays. that was the action that he saw in that very, very short-term aspect. what i found interesting was his focus on the interest rate market the negative interest rate markets. if anybody goes back to bloomberg.com, he talks about a severe and devastating consequence for the economy if they have to impact more negative rates. to me, it was like a set of scales. on the right hand side there was a dividend that was ringing the doorbell of the investors. i'm paying like 50% of my profits. i'm giving -- dividends. but on the left hand side it was the challenges of the s. bhmbings has impacted on the banking sector in this country which is how do you deal with negative interest rates? at the moment, that is minimal in terms of paying for the client at this stage. no job cut tonight. they may need to accelerate. they may need to move more quickly with their program. that seemed to come through with a direct impact from the swiss national bank. there is two ways that you benchmark a wealth manag

about 60 billion euros. the weakness of the greek economy, it seems likely the greeks will come back and apply for another loan. or they will ask for a debt write-down. don't forget, the greeks have already had more than 100 billion euros of their debts written off before. so we are bound to see more debate on this, more discussion, and no doubt more argument. >> more argument, indeed. simon young, our political correspondent. thank you so much for that. greece has bought itself more time on the bailout clock. but will it follow through on commitments it made in order to get that money? >> there is certainly doubt among leaders in brussels and the eu. athens' track record is not exactly stellar. >> for years one greek government after the next has promised to fight corruption, tax evasion and balance its budget. but not enough has been done. greece's finance minister says his country needs more time. >> give us an opportunity to stabilize and get going and we will reform. because we want to reform. >> despit

odds are that people think that greece will leave busy -- leave the euro, the euro will actually increasen value against the dollar. that is what a lot of people are right now. you're going to have chaos. you're going to have some element of slowing down what appears to be a modest improvement. >> willoughby like what we saw in cyprus a few years ago -- will it be like what we saw in cyprus a few years ago? >> greece is a little bigger than cyprus. there will be noise. having the noise today versus having the noise three or six months from now. >> isn't that what europe specializes in -- kicking the can? six months from now, everybody keeps on trucking. >> as long as they get the euro down to basically par or below zero, in the course of kicking the can, that happens. then, there is the hope of the eurozone to operate successfully. >> what i still do not understand is why everybody is so afraid of this potential exit from greece -- of greece from the euro. >> it is a domino effect. >> do you believe that spain is next with that portugal is next or that italy -- >> as soon as they do the p

and 5 billion euros. spanish telecoms company is said to have hired jpmorgan to handle the sale. it would be used to pay for recent acquisitions in europe and bolster its balance sheet. shares were down this morning. >> the irish building materials company has agreed to buy businesses owned by lafarge. holcim and lafarge need to sell off assets in order to win the approval of regulators. >> youtube hosted its first super bowl halftime show. the show included a host of youtube stars doing a chemistry demonstration. it was not intended to compete with nbc, but to give teenagers something to watch on their phones. as of sunday night p eople spent triple the time watching on their smartphones. ♪ >> welcome back to "the pulse" live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. >> these are the bloomberg top headlines. >> the family of the australian journalist has said they are ecstatic after he was released from over a year of detention in egypt. the journalists were detailed on terrorism-related charges

the euro is actually up by .25%. longest weekly winning streak for the single currency since march 2014. it has been a while. if you want to continue the conversation, i am on twitter. it is a very happy friday. as we cut to break, i will leave you with the beautiful city of london. i am going outside. why is it gray, the sun was out 30 minutes ago? have a great weekend. ♪ >> compromise on greece, maybe. bailout talks in brussels as germany shows signs of softening. >> bouncing back. how guy hands recovered. we will bring you an exclusive interview. >> and, worth it. in another bloomberg exclusive, we speak to l'oreal's ceo to find out why the strong dollar is good for the world's biggest cosmetic maker. good morning. you are watching "the pulse."