euro dollar a weaker euro off the back o those comments. draghi said the e.c.b.l do what it must to raise inflation quickly. euro/dollar drops below 10eu7b07. down .4% this morning. bond markets not reacting the way that they should be if you believe inflation is going to be successful. that is an all time low. minus 0.3%. yields unchanged this morning. a lot to get through. we have five minutes to do it. let's bring in richard jones and manus cranny. first of all, the top line. we have to get inflation back on target as quickly as possible. a repeat almost word for word of what he said at the exact same event 12 months ago. manus, to you first. did it signal a lot more is going to come in december? manus: the global economy recovery is the weakest since 2011. the european recovery is modest. he said the weakest rebound since 1998 is goings to take 31 quarters to take that peak. -- hit that peak. the german bond market and we wrote a piece on it yesterday. 40% of the german bond market is already beyond the grasp, beyond the grasp of the e.c.b. so the bond market

in terms of net income we will see 1.1 billion euros and 1.3 billion euros.erman engineering giant has raised its dividends and announced a 3 billion euro shift buyback plan. that came as the third-quarter profit beat estimates. joe kaiser says he expects growth in 2016 margins. as costor burberry, savings help to the luxury goods maker slow offshore revenue growth. the ceo is consolidating products under one label as they grapple the sluggish demand in china. let's get to some of those top stories. nejra is watching some of the main stocks on the move. nejra: i will start with the biggest loser on the stoxx 600, down as much as 22% -- that is rolls-royce, the second-biggest maker of jet engines in the world. it has a profit warning pushing the stock down. the company says that the 2016 profits will be her by a 650 million pound headwind, i demand for business jet engines and services and wide-body models. that stock is one we are very much watching. siemens is up today after the ceo raised the dividends and announced a second share buyback to be taken as the

we saw the euro dropped to a six-month low yesterday. euro-dollar, one of 7.53. are a couple of lovely lines out there. that is the view coming from a different houses. bank of america, merrill lynch, but the flow. they hedge funds keep on buying the dollar. they are retesting a dip into the negative. keep an eye on dollar brand. brand -- dollar rand at a record low. cehic.et to nejra plc,: i'm keeping it u.k. starting with vodafone. the world's second-biggest mobilephone company. europe's debts europe has been a bit of a challenging market. it looks like that could be turning around. today, the company reported a second-quarter service revenue. that is the money he gets from customers. that rose 1.2%. better than expected. third consecutive quarter of revenue growth for vodafone. it was because of a boost from rebounding markets in europe over the past few years. we have seen changes in the management team. the ceo committing billions in new network spending. it looks like it is making a difference and it pushed the shares higher today. it is the will -- it is o

sometimes it's less euro. let's accept that one size does not fit all. >> doing what is best for britain drives everything i do as your prime minister that. means taking the difficulty decisions and making arguments that people don't want to hear. it's why we have taken the necessary action to reduce the deficit. it's why we're seeing through our long-term economic blan and why we're reforming welfare and education. because we know that the bedrock of our security is a strong economy and these are the things that any nation must do to succeed in the 21st century. it's also why despite all the pressures on the public finances we are guaranteed to spend 2% of our economy on defense and why we're spending 0.7% of our gross national income on overseas aid. with that money we're able to equip our armed forces with two brand new aircraft carriers, to double our fleet of drones. buy new aircraft and sub marines and our special forces. we're doing these things to protect our economic and national interest and that's t

to the extent that euro is playing a role there. euro has done its part already.t is where the ecb wants to be. not in those exact words. if you look at the september macro projections, the ecb is rates to bechange down by 10% this year. if you want to describe this as their comfort zone, we are very close to that comfort zone. the concern is that other factors like the uncertainty around the fed, global economy, will continue to weigh on outlook. regards to the response in the fx market, we have done quite a bit. jonathan: euro-dollar, we are down there a seven-month low. the forecast kept coming down on the single currency. andou look at positioning you look at the balance of risk, what is the upside of being a shorter euro? usshka: the ecb-ish showing that the ecb has shown us a willingness. they take the shorts. divergence still has to play out. question for us is in the equity markets. while euro fx positioning is quite high, equity positioning can increase around these to meeting. junk of yesterday there was a report about a deposit rate. the conversation yo

tell me, jon ferro, about euro-sterling, about the idea of euro ascendant over a weaker euro.jonathan: this is an important trend. i think of it as the carney-draghi spread. mark carney is very sensitive to it. a stronger currency against the euro, they worry about that. "surveillance" history on black friday -- we have never had a hat trick of ripping up the scripts. vonnie: we have never had the monetary policy, either. tom: we have also never had jon ferro on short notice. that was brilliant -- jon ferro, thank you so much. this continues for the next 14 hours. in our next hour, by popular howard will talk to us about retail in the underlying real estate. stay with us. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. it is black friday, or black saturday in hong kong. a beautiful friday evening as they move on to the weekend. they have a lot to think about with him floating chinese stocks and ever weaker renminbi as china manages a challenging economy. right now we will manage a business flash with vonnie quinn. vonnie: for the first time, audi has been implicated in the folks like an emissi

the euro since 19 59. this particular pair getting a bit of a chill ahead of the ecb mating that is looming. story than broader that. it is the euro weakening generally, against most of those 60 major pairs apart from the danish krone. as you can see, that was back in march and april time. an interesting one to watch. we will have more on that and does the moment. let us get to the bloomberg. nejra: france and russia have agreed to coordinate strikes in syria to increase the focus on jihadist militants. that is after president francois hollande and president vladimir putin met. differences over assad. commerce sales surged yesterday, raising questions about how many will show up for brick and mortar promotions for lack friday. according to adobe, sales are expected to total $1.7 billion. president ping announced a major overhaul to make the largest army or combat ready. he told military officials that all branches of the armed forces will come under a joint military command. he is also insisting that the m

and this could lead to a 2 billion euro charge for the car maker. issue is in addition to the on going defeat device investigation which now involves up to 11 million cars. the latest discovery was made during an internal probe and doesn't really specify which models but it does include petrol as well as diesel engine cars. separately, also recalling certain vehicles in the u.s. and canada according to a reuters report sending a memo to dealers. the issue could reduce engine and brake power with the car maker telling them not to sell any more vehicles currently in inventory. let's talk through this with the man saying these concerns could be a whole lot worse. yeah, i saw that tweet from you saying my goodness, 800,000 but this time involving carbon dioxide which is much more serious. >> it's the primary goal in europe. so it is a big issue and also involves diesel as well as petrol so potentially extends the issue to be much more serious. >> but do you think this is also vw trying to get ahead of the scandal themselves? >> i give him a lot of credi

across the euro zone. it's still blue and beige but a hologram of the greek figure uropa made an appearance, the portrait was taken from a vase in the louvre museum in paris. with the in your notes it should be easier to spot a fake. >> this window becomes available when you look at the notes against the light. the transparent window near the top of the hologram reveals a portrait of uropa, which is visible on both sides of the bank note. claire: the 20 euro note is the most spent and most counterfeited in the 19 countries that use the euro. they make up more than half of fake notes. a quarter of a million were taken out of circulation in the first half of 2015. the old notes are still valid for now. the european central bank hopes the new ones will make up 80% of those spent in france by next september. over the last two years, new five and 10 euro notes have been phased in and new 50 euro note is due to be released in 2017. stephen: more business headlines. the travel group thomas cook reported the first

i have a euro trading at a seven-month low. the transmission mechanism through the fx channel has not fed through to a higher inflation rate. why will doing more solve that problem. there is a long leg. jon: should they wait if you have to wait 18 months. you have to keep the cost of the mortgages down. ultimately what it does is .timulate the banking sector later the growth opportunities can be taken because the banks are willing to lend. that is also greeting growth and you have a positive fit. but i think that is another year away. in the meantime you to keep putting interest on them to stay down. on this program, security over stability. the prime minister says france will breach european deficit rules as it spends on security following the terror attacks. ♪ jon: welcome back. i am jonathan ferro life from the city of london. at 10645 against the dollar. here are bloomberg's top stories. volkswagen's european market share declines in october. manufacturer accounted for 25% of new car registrations in the reason last month c

and we've broken and now, well i think parody for the euro and then some. >> so parody for dollar euro. carter braxton with cornerstone. guy, i think you share similar views in the s&p, in this market environment. if that is the case, let's assume that it is going to go to 1800. what sort of stock sectors to you go to. >> in terms of long names? >> yeah. anything? >> i think volatility is here to stay for quite sometime. i think carter speaks to. >> that and the other side, maybe the stocks could play catch-up to the otherside of the argument. it is down and has a huge amount to the upside to catch up to the mark. but if you want to go someplace and looking for stocks imper viehous to this, the defense stocks have done well. you look at lockheed martin today, all within whispered of all-time highs. and benign or lousy tape, the stocks are good places to be. those stocks can appreciate in that environment. >> and dollar and euro parody, and if you believe the fed is going to raise and the ecb is going to ease more, that parity is hard to achieve. >> i don't think it is hard to achieve.

you willon't deliver, obviously see euro strength and dollar weakness versus the euro.ld us what they are going to do, and now it is just as they are going to surprise is beyond our expectations. it is going to be a gradual steady appreciation of the dollar. guy: i'm trying to figure out what i surprises. bloomberg did a survey -- that is the consensus trade. but .4 is not off the table. jonathan: if they have a two-tier deposit rate we could see a 20 basis point move. for me as we go into the end of december the on the ecb meeting, you just wonder what incentive the federal reserve has to say, yes, we will hike. they have got incentive to do the opposite. it will be so, so gradual and so, so shallow that you may not even notice it. we know that the pain threshold of the fed, because history tells us there is one -- the last time the dollar index went through, and yellen mentioned the dollar. they came out one by one. guy: and talk the dollar down. jonathan: draghi hasn't done anything. the euro dollars around 115. the central bank can do whatever they want. it at some

guy: you think the euro is going to go up. when i bolt my euro appreciation on to that.make even more than that. >> we think the euro will strengthen as well. it is more limited because of that, but euro-dollar is going to be a plus for u.s. investors. francine: and volatility here to stay. >> yes, and more spikes. the vix is very low. but yields are very high. that is very weird. the lead to from high yields into equity is via mutual funds. the people who holds the paper have $18 trillion in assets. it is the hybrid funds that will be the contagion conduit. there is an is -- if liquidity crunch they will be forced to sell the equity. they do not just hold junk. they hold like a soft, -- they hold microsoft. if there is a crunching credit this will affect the high quality u.s. names. guy: you expects that to happen? >> at some point we think that could happen. some sort of exogenous shock, like a rally in the dollar or perhaps some kind of oil fall again. if we see oil fall below where we are now. 40. if there is some kind of shock, an exogenous shock, that would be enou

. >> let me take it back to the euro zone because in an hour's time we get the euro zone quarter on quarter figure and a print around 0.4%. if we get that number that would be the 10th consecutive quarter of expansion. it doesn't sound so bad. we're not in a recession. does that warrant more easing from the ecb in december? >> that's a very good point. the real economy was actually not doing that poorly. it's basically inflation considering the ecb at this point and you look at the forecasts, this year we're going to have almost flat inflation. next year we think about 1% and 2017, 1.5. their target is two and this is what president draghi reiterated yesterday in speeches and newspaper articles and interviews, their mandate is 2% inflation and they're still far away from this and this drives into what we forecast in tess. >> we take a look at the euro dollar exchange rate. we're changing hands at 10764. and what you highlighted in a recent report is there's a risk that the rapid exchange rate movement will deter the two main central banks from implementing their diverging policy scenarios.

its stock fell as low as $.12 on the euro.omberg strategist spent a whole week looking at those bonds. joining us now. the corporate reality suddenly strikes and things explode. >> absolutely. that is one of the big things. the dovish review on the ecb, expectations for ending qe, the effect that has versus the fed. you chase yield in the periphery, you look at abengoa. back in june, you thought you were buying the recovery trade on the periphery of eurozone. you go from 100 five cents down to $.12 on the euro. it tells you that in a risk on environment, you've got to look at what risk you are taking on and take more of a fundamental approach. jonathan: other people say these are very isolated stories. you put abengoa together with havewagen, who vcocould predicted that? simon: we are still positive in terms of credit markets generally. through, towards the historic lows on default rates. what it does tell you is that the debt risk can pop up in any location that you take your eye off the ball. there'sfor complacency. jonathan

to dovetail foreign exchange the political economics of euro. euro weakening today. government leaders will a currency weaker? can mr. hollande, miss merkel, prime minister cameron, can we adjust our economics or help our fight against terror with a weaker euro? geoffrey: right now, governments are trying to stay away from monetary policy. look at what francois hollande announced yesterday in terms of fiscal spending. the notion they are not going to look at budget rules right now, bring the army back to 2007 levels. this is fiscal loosening on top of the fiscal loosening anticipated all over the eurozone. for germany they will look at the humanitarian issues. this is positive for the eurozone. may be able be positive for the euro, too. they are transferring their policies to the currency. tom: help us with the dynamic of the euro and sterling. francine follows this every five minutes. if we get a print of the zero point 69, what does not signify to see ever weaker euro against sterling? be more: pbl we would concerned because they will be so far off their inflation

wti crude or the euro dollar?not sure if i'm qualified to judge but you're both winners in my book. i have to side with you. the wti is a better representation in terms of the chart. it was a significant contributing factor to the weakness we saw across the board yesterday. a very weak afternoon session selling off into the close and while we have yet to open up to the door to the downside in either the equities or the crude it was a contributing factor and weighing on the broader based market yesterday. we saw it come off 2015 highs. trade up above the highs from wednesday yesterday and back down below the lows from wednesday. that was also adding to some of the weakness. so the dollar, yes, has been a focal point. interest rates as well as far as potentially siding with the euro dollar chart but have to go with the crude. a lot of the equities products are watching the crude in terms of a contributing factor or leegd indicator if you will. >> but how about the notion that we're seeing this massive shift now in t

they came in at 429 million euros. that the 319 million euros average.ll see how the market reacts to the news of their increase in profits for the third quarter as well. anna: thank you very much. hans nichols joining us from berlin. guy: we are going to take a break. after that, we are talking about what's happening with ryanair. ryanair pushing guidance up towards the top end of the stated range. michael o'leary, the ceo of the company, is going to be joining us after this break. we will get his take on what winter looks like. this morning is quite foggy. anna: we will also keep an eye on what is going on in turkey, where it is not foggy. the weather is lovely. the turkish lira gaining ground. the turkish stock exchange gaining ground. we will be back. ♪ we live in a pick and choose world. love or like? naughty or nice? calm or bright? but at bedtime ...why settle for this? enter sleep number. don't miss the semiannual sale going on now! sleepiq technology tells you how you slept and what adjustments you can make. she likes the bed soft. he's more har

the euro weakens against the dollar. rolls-royce plunges. shares sink 15%. after the engine maker has a profit warning on the climbing demand for business jet engines. and earnings beat in a buyback. lehman's shares rise -- as it plans a $3 billion buyback. siemens shares rise as the engineering giant plans a $3 billion buyback. welcome. this is "the pulse." mario draghi is speaking in the european parliament right now. pastid that q.e. will run september 2016 if needed. aredownside economic risks visible. his comments had driven the euro lower against the dollar, sterling and yen. the fed is, as expected to hike rates, widmark the first time since 1994 there was monetary policy diversions between europe and the u.s. back then, janet yellen was teaching at university. mario draghi was a senior civil servant in the italian finance ministry. europe's benchmark break was set by germany. that months, the fed boosted benchmark rates to 3.5%. the buddhist bank cut its discount rate by half a percentage point. cut itsundesbank discount rate by half a percentage poi

they have already put aside 6.5 billion euros, 2 billion just for this 800,000 vehicles. we are talking about 11 million diesels. it's a hard one to call, sarah, but we will certainly see. sarah: this is definitely not the last we have heard of this story. thank you. we appreciate that analysis. we are going to move on to some other news. a host of new questions for the german soccer association to answer about financial irregularities today. this after tax authorities raided its offices. prosecutors are conducting an investigation over a multimillion euro payment made in connection with its winning bid to host the world cup almost 10 years ago. police also raided the homes of the current president and his predecessor. i am joined by our sports correspondent in studio. what are german authorities looking for? nick: the taxman is looking for his money. that is why they stormed the homes. they are looking for the 6.7 million euros we have been talking about for the last two and a half weeks. originally, there was talk about a cultural event that never happened as a gala eve

this is one thing he can count on, getting hands-on it euro. a weaker euro helps. other hand, the ecb is clear in saying that the euro is not a policy target. they do not try to manipulate it. francine: what are economists saying about more qe? be handingeems to out the possibility of expanding qe. has, it seems like it's an open question. he seems to backtrack a bit on this sort of announcement. we will see. it depends on the income information. the things seem to be doing nicely. we might get more information. he is speaking three times in the next three days. we will have to hear what he has to say. francine: i know you said it are targetingey currencies. qe,e are expecting more there is a question as to how it works. it has cap eurozone together. -- cap the eurozone together. has it really filtered through the real economy? >> the recent study published says this. qe and other unconventional measures are going through in getting to the real economy. it cut costs for banks. banks are able to push lower prices to customers. it's easier for households and companie

euro at 1.0711. a weaker euro.erich say, mario draghi wants a weaker euro. strong yen, weak euro. we're watching dxy. a print of 100 would be newsmaking. there's the forex report. coming up shortly, bloomberg david westin darkened the door the smarty. tell us about it. what do you have? david: where going to pick up or your left off. continuing the conversation you have been having on "surveillance" about draghi, and we the market reacting to it will talk about retail in united states. walmart will tell us about their plans for the christmas season. more broadly talking about some early indications about how well or maybe not so well retail might go in the holiday season. we have three important guests. legendarymisano, the former head of ibm, talking about global leadership in the business community. we will be joined by kevin -- the former fed governor. ,nd we will have ron perelman one of the most respected investors around your he will talk about the opportunities he sees as well as his approach to philant

we saw the euro drop.y big question is why did not i foresee this and transferring euros into dollars ahead of time. that would probably be unethical and inappropriate. mario draghi is sending the euro lower. guise? y confident.utiousl what other names are we looking at? hans: there's going to be discussion debate on capital market union. you need to have stronger capital market union if you want to have increased lending and more lending going out to businesses. he talked about quantitative easing on what it does on easing liquidity. he says quantitative easing is working in the direction that we want. he didn't say working in the magnitude that they want. now comes time for the calibration. like he is good to turn up the hose and put a little more volume out there and then he can get the desired result. he criticized critics of quantitative easing. we will see more quantitative easing, more on the deposit rate . maybe a little more on capital markets. what we are expecting, he did not directly mention pa

mig wan sells a portion of tik hot to for about a euro.y pork dish is very popular here. i serve it with rice and pickles. people love to eat it, because it is nice and sweet, and it's easy to eat. reporter mig wan sells about 80 : portions a day. many vietnamese people eat breakfast or lunch at stands like this. the pickles give mig wan's snack its special taste. and how do her customers like it? >> i like to eat it. the combination of pork and duck eggs is unique and delicious. reporter: mig wan also has a few tables for guests who have time to sit down. >> it's so wonderfully sweet. >> great. reporter the snack is eaten with : a spoon, rather than chopsticks. that's unusual in vietnam. most of her customers have to rush back to their own stands, so mig wan also sells her tik hot to to go. anchor go to our facebook page : to share your ideas for global snack. now, time to end the show before my tummy rumbles. thank you very much for watching, and goodbye. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible fo

the euro dollar hanging on to that 107 level. we had mario draghi speaking earlier and indicating that he is leaving the door open for more action to happen in decembe december. but let's head out to sri in asia. >> yeah, those jobs numbers knocked it out of the part, didn't they? so men at work springs to mind if you remember the 80s as i did. i'm showing my age. anyway, let's take a look at the markets. aussie dollar higher today. up by well over 1% but we're off from the session highs. this is where we stand at the moment. 71.53. you're quite right. i don't think that in terms of the policy implications they'll start tightening. we're miles away from that scenario but they could be on hold for that much more longer. elsewhere, in terms of the equities market action, the hong kong index was higher as well today. up by 2.4%. that was largely thanks to the e-commerce firm at tencent reporting some very strong numbers after a singles day. so the chinese consumer is in good form. in term of the market action for the short-term it w

lufthansa says the walkouts are costing it more than 10 million euros a day. russia's economy continues to slump. if contracted by 4.1% in the third quarter -- it contracted by 4.1% in the third quarter, not as bad as predicted by economist. --economists. the country is also grappling with western economic sanctions over the crisis in ukraine. we are going to switch gears next to self driving cars, billed as the future of driving. google is among those trying to develop their version. the french giant peugeot is also trying to get in on this and has been testing their prototype in recent weeks. >> at first glance, it looks like an ordinary car, but this is the first self driving prototype from peugeot-citroen. the car has been allowed onto the highway for road tests with a driver ready to take control at any moment. >> i just need to tap the brakes or steer the wheel. after a few minutes, i understand the system. it's a vehicle that reacts progressively. it's really nice. >> the car's accelerator and other technical elements are hidden in the boot. computers l

why can he not move the euro?ou few keep pulling a rabbit out of a hat, eventually it gets boring. two whenne from 140 under five. now he is going to drive it down? no way. i think you will find out that the u.s. economy that is normalizing isn't as strong as you think it is. itre going to find out that is savage, this tightening. these are obvious things that will raise rates. you see where the euro is the idea is 107, that david bloom is that the outlier. everyone else is looking for the euro. within that is the 10 year yields. saying with steve major that we will not see a fed rate increase in december? david: of course we will. we have been forecasting that for six months. we know they're going to raise rates in december. but once they said raises rates, we will go to 75 or maybe 1%. you will find out that the u.s. economy isn't -- tom: one of our themes is china. soggy that oil may be this morning. is janet affected by the commodity disinflation and does that get you to a strong euro? i think you had a previo

that cost 350 million euros.hat's important about the last couple of hours is its estimated to have included long-haul flights. they listed more than 100 long-haul flights. we would never think about leaving from franklin -- frankfurt to go to new york. you should check your flight to see if it's going to make a trip. mark: how could they be cutting costs with a increased earnings in october? how do you marry that? hans nichols: every married person in europe takes easy jess and ryanair. you obviously have a problem rum a challenge with low-cost airlines. that's what they are trying to compete against. they have a new ground. they used to be germanwings. fighting those low-cost carriers and above they are competing with the gulf state carriers. that is a difficult position to be in. mark: it's good to see you. it's all about competition with easyjet. there you go. betty: undercutting the bigger rival. metals have been taking a huge beating as of late area there is a commodity collapse of his rippled. stocks are w

the euro-yen.t the euro is down to its lowest since april today.t is it has fallen for seven consecutive weeks and has not done that since 1999. since october has fallen 7% against the dollar which leads to the question, what's priced in? 1.0% rate cut which would bring it down. beyond that, it's anyone's guess. that is fully priced and according to futures data. will the euro go to parity if mario draghi surprises us? will the euro start rising again which pushes down on inflation? questions, questions, questions. it has been 36 days since the ecb's last meeting and we are almost out of our misery. alix: we are so close and then we have the fed. so jamie, so much is priced into the market and he says a -3% deposit rates is -- so that -- so does that put the ecb more pressure? >> i think the link between the deposit rate and the exchange rate is probably overplayed. i don't see that as the main channel through which the ecb is trying to stimulate the economy. it's rather asset her juices and increased scale which should make more difference. of 400

and the euro-dollar trade, you lower onhe euro moving the back of the dollar. back to you. jon: we will bring you that data live throughout the morning. that is happening in the early part of the session. here is what is happening in today's show. the volkswagen pile up. the scandal widens to include petrol cars. shares surge after the biggest public offering. and the pboc's fat finger? sparks aentral bank stock market surge by publishing five-month-old comments. vw scandal widens. the carmaker says an extra 800,000 vehicles may be involved in another a emissions scandal. the crisis had so far centered on diesel engines. hans nichols has been in berlin. an incredibly busy man. who made this latest revelation? and the price tag that can be attached to it. nejra: hans: volkswagen came up with this last night. they put together a press release saying they discovered emissions regularities with carbon dioxide. up to this point, we have been talking nitrogen oxide. you did mention that the petrol- gasoline engines are affected, but a spokesman says this is a small number. we are

what can the european central bank do to prevent the euro bounce? we will hear from the ecb vice president. welcome to the program. welcome to "the pulse." i'm anna edwards in for francine lacqua and manus cranny. french president hollande heads to russia today to enlist the help of president putin against islamic state, a task made more complicated by turkey's downing of a russian jet. hollande urged angela merkel to step up germany's government been to the cause. ryan chilcote is in moscow for us. things have changed a lot since hollande first planned his trip to russia. update us. russia's spat with turkey is only growing. russia today announcing new restrictions on turkish imports. there is some talk that they could go after food imports. it looks like they are going after industrial goods like detergent, some food imports. this after many russian tour operators canceled packages for russian tourists to turkey. turkey is the biggest destination for russian tourists outside the former soviet union. this is a trade response, not a military respons

we need a strong euro.me time, we need to make sure that the voting patterns does not lead to london being disadvantaged. i think that is the question, we need clarity around how the euro zone will operate. anna: i know that you are in favor of staying in europe. others have a different view, this could be more divided than britain as a whole. can you talk about being subject to a common tariff if they left the european union, many think that would not actually happen because it would be in germany and europe's interest to sign a quick trade deal. there are counter arguments, aren't there? mike: i think the reality is that the city of london is very clear that it is good to stay in the european union. i think we have to be very realistic about what would happen if we left. exports of ours are 45%, depending on how you measure it, to the european union. gdp.her, that is 16% of the u.s. it only this week that they're not interested in deals with the u.k. on its own they wanted as part of the european union. a

you had to make a security deposit of about 5000 euros for living costs in italy.f you found a job within a year, you were allowed to stay. otherwise, the deposit was used to pay for your plane ticket home. >> since then, pal has worked his way up from stable boy to cheese-maker. he's proud that he and his fellow indians maintain the quality and reputation of parmesan cheese. pal's boss, vincenzo manfredini, exports cheese all over the world. producing parmesan cheese would be very difficult without the indians, who work diligently, reliably, and cheaply. and the former refugees have integrated well in italian society, so the italians respect them. >> pal consciously chose not send his children to the public kindergarten. he thinks there are too many indian children there, and he's afraid that his kids would end up speaking only the "old-country" language. he wants to prevent that, so he sends them to the catholic kindergarten, where the great majority of the hildren are italians. that forces them to speak italian. about 60,000 ethnic indians live >>about 60,000 et

raises the 3 billion euros.y schengen will collapse. 20 seconds ahead of the open and ftse futures seconds away. but the futures higher. .- ftse futures higher let's get your markets open with nejra cehic. nejra: we so european stocks gain for a third day. it hit a three month high. the stoxx 600 is heading for a weekly game. let's take a look at european equities and if they managed to hold on to those gains today. the ftse 100 coming in higher, .2% up. tech 40 looking pretty flat. we are still -- cac 40 looking pretty flat. -- thetill waiting for u.s. economy could be strong enough to withstand a rate rise. 68% probability of a rate rise. dax

druckenmiller bets against the euro.what is behind the call and his investing strategy in the eurozone? that's next. ♪ stan druckenmiller says he's shortly euro and stocks could be next. the founder who led soros back in 1992 pointed to a divergence between policy of the fed and that of the ecb and said president draghi pretty much announced and easing. let's bring my guest host for this hour, manish singh, head of investments across bridge capital, into this conversation. druckenmiller said, i had a short position. he thinks, when you talk about the currency, they go in cycles of 2-3 years. he would say they've had a timeout on the euro. would you concur with that? manish: i think i would and i think either is a short bias. draghi repeated that yesterday. we let's also remember that leg isee -- the dollar not going to the as strong. we had a good auto sales number, but also, i don't see that you're going to have a much greater u.s. number. look at the gdp numbers. that doesn't tell you the dollar leg is going to push mu

there is the euro.raghi said over the weekend that the decision was an open terms of whether they would do qe. these are the numbers. francine: he gave a great interview. when you look at the area of manufacturing, that data was weaker. it is not germany that is driving this. france picking up a little bit. are ones saying you dollar 10. manus: the ak party swept back into office. his party has now regained the parliamentary majority lost five months ago. this get to tom mackenzie who is in istanbul. tom, give us the details. manus, there was widespread shock and surprise last night when these results came through it they were gathering -- they were gatherings of happy ak party members. kurds are unhappy at these results. beatingarty found it the forecast by the polls. they won that majority. they wanted easily. they even pullback votes from the hdp party. they were forced into coalition talks. -- it is ardogan gamble that spain off. since june, we have seen tensions and violence. we have seen the truce

in the eurozone, it is largely down to the fall we had in the euro over the past euro so, the other sidef the dollar trade, which has driven up the prices of imports, not really being driven by domestic elementals, which i think is still consistent with soft inflation and certainly consistent with the ecb into doing to keep their foot in the door and stimulating the euro. all right, we have got more from neville hill after that, but we just got this crossing the terminal. this back inklings of on november 9, but now, this offer has been normal. canadian pacific did not disclose the exact terms, but it did say it offered a sizable premium in cash and stock to a railroad company. whilek southern jumping, canadian pacific is halted from trading at the moment. alix: pershing square is the biggest canadian pacific shareholder with about 14 million shares, so the upside for pershing. all right, we will be back on the other side of the break. ♪ ♪ scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" hill. here with neville u.s. slack and other slack, particularly when you look at working. what do you th

we have a weak euro.is very good for the european economy as a general rule because they can do much cheaper prices on exports now. the euro is nice and weak. a lot of quantitative easing. despite the terrorist attack that we have seen. jonathon: question on at -- assets. first quarter, the big --son we had an equity boom if you think it is going to be the other way around and we get the qe and the euro strengthens going into view one next year, what does that mean for stocks in europe? >> it could have an impact on earnings. it will have an impact on any corporation that has significant exposure to mainland europe including american companies and emerging-market companies as well. if the move is gradual, you will see firms managing that change and it should not have detrimental effects that you are suggesting. years, wethe last 4-5 have been talking about the fed. what is happening in europe and japan and more easing from china know you like to bottom up, but from the top down? >> turkey is a country i k

the estimate was for 2.3 billion euros.have a few questions they are and what is motivating this share buyback. anna: thank you very much. up next, we will speaking to the ceo of siemens about this morning's result. all of that coming up next. ♪ anna: welcome back you are watching "countdown." guy: lena komileva is still with us. let's talk about a story that we are about to talk about, siemens and their narrative around germany. i will try to tie everything together. germany seems to have a lot of reasons to spend more money right now. a have an economy that needs it. may have a migrant crisis that would help. i think merkel could do with a poll boost. will we see fiscal expansion in europe? is anomileva: it important that a debate of economic policy shifted away from the ecb. monetary policy has been all it could. what is clear is that the last five years, actually further, the last decade has seen a blockbuster of global economic governance. through the euro crisis of 2010, 2012, and now to the emerging market crisis, wh

risk in the euro area is at a low level. we showed, also, the position of the euro area in the financial cycle, which is related to prices in the asset markets. nevertheless, there are risks, of course. but we are less advanced in the financial cycle, we have lower pressures on asset markets that other parts of the world, in particular, the u.s. hans: when you mention risks, what is the main one? vÍtor: the main risk is that possible reversal and the financial asset markets, which means that on yields would increase, contagion, and equity prices will also suffer, which implies capital losses for financial institutions. these can be triggered by several things. one is, of course, the possible spillovers of the increase in interest rates in u.s. also, acceleration of growth and vulnerabilities in emerging markets. ofo, the general situation low nominal growth in the euro areas. these are the main risks that may or not materialized next year. hans: but what if those three risks happened at the same time? the fed rate hike affec

francine: if you look at central-bank divergence, does it make sense playing euro-dollar or euro-yen?rstand that the ecb will do more in terms of qe, and maybe the doj stays put. robin: we look at all of this through the lens of what central banks say they want to accomplish versus where they are. in our view, both the ecb and the boj are way behind in terms of achieving their inflation forecast, which we think are the single most important thing. we think the boj, even though obviously the recent meeting was disappointment, has to ease that one of the upcoming meetings. 1.30 for forecast of dollar-yen, so i really like upside down dollars-yen, and we are forecasting parity for dollar-yen for the end of the year. tom: robin, i am going to show you this chart on the phone. trust me, it is "surveillance." it will work. willem buiter, if i get this 20% dollar approaching accord levels. that has to be the instability you're talking about. willem: it is hard to see the in usconomy being robust to support the monetary policy that would give you that extension. it would be a huge blow to the

we saw euro sterling at 0.70. where's the bet on euro-dollar parity? is there enough bets that if they are wrong, we drive through parity? jane: i think parity is farther away now if you look at the spot data. the reason for that is partially what i have been mentioning, it is possible we will get a non-hawkish message from the fed which could dampen going long. the ecb is likely to be very dovish. -dollary get euro downside momentum if the market is not going to carry on -- tom: this is critical, do you see any history in your reading that a central bank can aggressively and purposefully we can a currency? that is a lot harder to do than to talk about, isn't it? jane: it is. side ofcy is only one the coin. at the start of the year, euro- dollar fell aggressively but the market was ramping up dollar longs. there's another side to this. if you think about what the euro became at the start of the year, it became a funded currency because of low interest rates. this has the upside of a carry trade that only works when appetite is elevated. thehe start of

i want to show you what happened to the euro dollar. we dropped like a stone trading back below the 107 level but we're off the session lows now but still off by a quarter of 1%. currently changing hands at 10717. also we saw a big move higher on the back of the dovish comments but again we have come off those highs. the ftse 100 still in negative territory. the zetra dax which was positive is now back in negative territory off by a quarter of 1%. the cac 40 up half of 1%. the comments that we heard were dovish. just to point out a few of them. signs of a turnaround in core inflation, they have weakened downside risks are clearly visible for the economy. >> we saw that drop below 107 and then once again you say just now so it's almost as if the market is anticipating this speech today or it was anticipating after we had the speech yesterday where he said absolutely nothing. >> nothing. >> we were sitting here watching the whole thing from here in london and it was all about banking regulation yesterday. so today we have more and it defi

it might codify some relations between euro into non-euro countries, talk about how the u.k. keen on this ever closing union. it might talk about completing this angle market services. all that could be in the mix. the u.k. will be talking about whether next year might be on the referendum. what does this mean to business, and what does it mean for european business that operates here? i am pleased to say that the ceo of -- joins us now. thank you for joining us. -- have 14,000 people here you must want the government to get on with it. and there is talk of the referendum taking place in the summer. is sooner better for you? >> well, at the end of the day, what is always good a certainty. having uncertainty around briggs exit is not a good thing. having said that, we need our government to take time and make sure it is done properly. once we know the outcome, we will be able to have the referendum, and the sooner all of that can happen, the better it is. anna: help us get inside the board rooms of britain and europe, if you would. what is at the crux of this for you? what is

euros.his is an accounting gain tied to socgen's odette. consumer levels raising. in the second quarter, socgen had a -- it's highest profits in the financial crisis. it was largely equity trading driving. this time we had a drop -- 5.5% drop. fixed income revenue drops 23%. bank had aniggest increase in revenue from trading in the quarter. on the consumer bank, 17th percent in profit as revenue rose. guy: we will be hearing from the ceo at socgen in a few minutes. he has some interesting things to say about the retail banking story. anna: let's talk about what is going on in the u.s.. let's talk about toyota. breaking news. operating profit coming in ahead of the estimates. guy: they have cut the global target to 10 million the unit -- 10 million units. that is not a significant downgrading. we saw this earlier -- weakness in domestics japan. it will be interesting to see this global number. there are also announcing a chunky buyback. there will be spending as much as 150 billion yen. from