the euro spiking toa5— outcome on sunday. the euro spiking to a 5— month high. why?uro, do you think? well, as you said earlier, it was very difficult to predict this election and we have developed our own model to correct and aggregate poles and we had a roughly 20 cents chance to have a market unfriendly outcome which would have dampened the euro and now, the result from yesterday is in the direction that this probability is revised down quite significantly and therefore it is quite naturalfor us quite significantly and therefore it is quite natural for us that we would see the euro appreciate a little, only a little, because the risk scenario was less likely than oui’ risk scenario was less likely than our baseline which was what we see today. and what do you think will happen next in terms of who will come out winner in a couple of weeks time? those that lost out have rallied behind emmanuel macron, will he get the job? yeah, that's definitely the baseline scenario. a 20% probability of a risk to have a market on family out, and the french election, we have come

the euro really leading all of that. the euro is trading up 1.1%. remember, we have the tax story to get to from the other side of the pond, and we have the ecb to think about as well. let's show you what's going on elsewhere around the markets. matt has already walked in through the periphery trade we are seeing. the safety trade coming out, again, i work you back toward the ecb meeting coming up. well, down offer as over 3%. the real trade is going to come through at 8:00, 9:00 in paris, when we see this big move on equities. we are expecting massive movement. watch the french banks today, that will be the one trait that stands out. let's get the first word news update with juliette saly. juliette: guy, thank you. the white house says it will offer up an outline of its tax reform plan this week, but the specifics may not be ready until june. earlier president trump told his twitter followers "big tax reform and tax reduction will be announced on wednesday." budget director mick mulvaney says they expect to lay out the principles, but admitted the

both the euro area and to some extent the uk. the euro area is a particular target for us now. we're seeing growing earnings, better cyclical data. even though it feels like a consensus call, doesn't always mean it's wrong. >> what's the ecb going to do today? even if they leave rates unchanged, will they change language significantly? >> they might do. you have to be careful as to why you care. why are we watching? there are two aspects to the ecb statement. one says here's what we think might happen, here's our language selection, whether we will include this word or that word. we can play the language bingo game of saying is it included or not included? that's fun but a waste of time. we don't know much about what the ecb will say. more importantly, what are the ecb's fears? what are they worried about? what's the reaction function? are they facing growth or a fear of inflation? under mario draghi, it's much more about saying we support growth. the challenge for the ecb is to continue to articulate that in an environment where people are saying worry over. let's restore norm

we saw the euro rise as much as 2%. euro-yen rose 3%. euro-dollar about up one. -- 1.2%.rom sunday fading. look at what's happening in the bearish positioning. one-month risk partner -- reversals in euro-dollar and euro-yen, the options market is still bearish, but look how much it has come back since we got those results from the french elections. a lot of repositioning going on in the fx markets. the treasury 10 year yield heading for the biggest one-day jump in three months, up six basis points. 2.31%, very safely within that range again that we were in until the end of november, are in november. we have seen two-year and 30 year writing as well. the dollar.d and talking of risk on, gold sinking the most in more than seven weeks, moving in sync with the bloomberg dollar index. that is trading in the lowest level since the u.s. election. now that we got past the first round of the french election, attention is turning to other things. u.s. tax reform, the possibility of a government shutdown, the bank of japan. anna: going to be a busy week. coming up, we get back to th

there was a record today surrounding the euro. is the difference euro-dollarclose of friday which was one dollar 7.20 eight cents. and the open in asian trading today. 107.80. look at the difference between the two. it was a record gap between the two. what a lovely little nugget. it's just beneath the surface. it's the widest differential between the close friday in the open today. there you go going back to 1999. very nerdy but that's me. vonnie: it's fast many because it shows how much frenzied action is going on behind the scenes. abigail, you have something similar? i that's a great chart and love what you talk about in terms of frenzied trading. looking at my chart, the question around that great record that mark talked about, can it last? iss chart suggests that it over excitement. there could be some volatility ahead. this is a five year weekly chart of the euro against the dollar. on that frenzy, we have the first gap up that shows over the last five years. there are gaps across most risk on assets. it suggests we could s

is the euro not working the way it was supposed to? >> i think it's not a matter of the euro.lot of problems. i think some problems are similar to the reasons for electorate decisions in uk in the brexit and in the united states and the presidential elections. there is some uncertainty and the change of -- the speed of change. >> a lot of people say the euro is about maintaining peace, but do you know what marine le pen says? she says the euro did not bring peace. peace brought the euro, that it exists because of the peace. and that as the peace falls apart, the euro will fall apart. >> i do not agree with madame le pen with all due respect. by the way, she is using a lot of arguments in the way that other people are responsible for my problems. that is always the message in which demagogues have been very successful, blame the others for their own problems. it may be lovely to listen for to constituencies but it can't be trusted. you have to care on your own problems. everyone has problems. every state has problems. but you have to solve it yourself. you can ask for solidarit

the currency, some of the options around the euro and euro-yen.uity market, we haven't seen a huge amount of that priced in. maybe people are getting tired of the politics. we have seen the trump and brexit affect. this is definitely a window of opportunity for europe where you can step out of the shadow of politics and look at the earnings, corporate profits, and things that drive equities. anna: what about the ecb story? we have seen a longer debate over the last few days. how long can the ecb continued to give the same messages? bullish messages from mario draghi the last time he spoke. when will it start to reflect more positive data coming out from your? -- from europe? nick: we are moving that way. we suspect that is a possibility this week. after the elections in france, they may take a more neutral stance. september, they will move to talks of tapering. think whatou emmanuel macron is promising in that is the french pmi. germany is just on the turn. nick: it may be. we have had this in the u.s. as well. there is the soft data. it has been

brands could be worth 6 billion euros.t said it was also considering it's dual headquarters in the u k and the netherlands looking to streamline the business to meet the challenges ahead. this announcement is likely to set off the struggle between the british and the dutch governments to keep the business. european indices mostly higher endingursday, the ftse in the red in london. after european central bank defended its stimulus program to keep supporting the eurozone economy as long as necessary. wall street trading slightly higher now as weekly jobless claims were lower than expected. march unemployment report is set to be released tomorrow. paring back to slater gains as the summit between donald trump ngping get underway. they will be tuning in for announcements about trade and investment. regions andf two cameroon have been without internet access since general. -- since january. in an effort to crack down on protest. it has affected the startup scene prompting some entrepren eurs to pack their bags. reporter: how do

unemployment remains high and the average income is 330 euros a month. he is likely to continue serbia's balancing act between the west and russia. he is pro-european union and hopes to lead serbia to join the eu while still keeping close ties with moscow and beijing. showed mostion people are in favor of the continuation of reforms as well as the continuation of the european path to serbia. while keeping our traditional friendship with russia and china. >> his closest challenger took 14% of the vote while the satirical candidate created by an activist came in third with 9%. his win is a political humiliation for serbia's opposition parties. >> you are watching live from paris here on france 24. quick recap of the main headlines. search and rescue teams continue their hunt for survivors among the dirt and debris following this weekend's deadly mudslides in colombia. the death toll stands at 254 but that figure is set to rise. u.s. president plans to reboot my lateral relations with egypt. he's gearing up to hold talks with his counterpart at the white ho

alix: it has been by european equities, by the euro -- buy european equities, buy the euro.arket price action can be moving left and right. we have seen that in the previous meetings. ourselves fromve today's meeting because it is a tricky meeting with respect to timing with the french elections. the market will start looking through this this summer. euro.e been long the we have been expecting higher yields. the equities to outperform in europe relative to the rest of the world, particularly rate sensitive factors -- one has to have patience. this will play out over six months. jon: cpi in germany back on track. a confidence print in the eurozone. the path of least resistance is still for a stronger euro. , what kind ofout numbers have you got in mind over the next three months? themos: that is a very good question. towardsgradual rise 115, it is not going to change the outlook. if you get a substantial, very 120, youe above 115 or could be talking about numbers that could have an effect on the ecb's inflation forecast. we are coming back from a very low set of inflation pr

, short euro positions are expensive. when you look at the derivative market and the premium priced in. you need to do more homework and look at the currencies that offer more value. in our view, the biggest value is a hedge against european risk at this point lies with short scandinavian currencies, and long euro,. >> and what if le pen actually wins? we've seen predictions of the euro/dollar pair. will it drop to parity or to 15%? >> if le pen wins that will rock the boat. that's not priced in at all. we would expect euro/dollar to move to parity. but again, once there is the initial reaction, investors will take a step back and ask themselves, can she actually call a referendum in the eu? the answer is not necessarily. in france it should be the parliament not president who is calling for these constitutional changes. so after the initial and massive and justified selloff, people will stel bap back and think ab it again. >> and there may be another force come june elections, that's the ecb. they have spent time talking

the euro touching its highest since november. has won approval. -- >> time has come to free the french people of arrogant politicians and policies. candidatetiny and the of the people. >> i would like to say that i realized what my responsibility is, and i know full well what it means, and i will carry on with optimism, enthusiasm, the fate of the country and in europe. fook haswoni approval for alinta. they are best known for their jewelry stores but sources say it will pay 3 billion u.s. dollars for lent up. they follow the purchase of the australian power group. north korea may be suffering if you will suffer is. unusually long lines are being seen for gas stations. prices are also said to be rising rapidly. they rely almost completely on china for fuel, and they have cut fuel under sanctions try to get the nuclear program to drop. exportsa's diesel fuel surged as commercial stockpiles drained to fill quotas. bloomberg estimates 460,000 barrels a day, up 31%. fuel exporters have to meet a certain amount of volumes before recei

again, the us to make euro jumped against the yen in early asian trade. —— the euro jumped.. the french vote was being watched very closely asa vote was being watched very closely as a bellwether for popular sentiment following the election of donald trump as us president and after brexit. —— 116.985. donald trump as us president and after brexit. ——116.985. but i spoke to some traders earlier and they expect investors to be jittery once again closer to the second round of voting on the seventh of may. some say that if marine le pen wins the elections, the euro could ta ke wins the elections, the euro could take a huge fall and can potentially hit parity with the us dollar. other currency others say that marine le pen isjust one big hurdle for the euro. there are more elections coming in germany and italy, and uncertainty here could lead to more euro weakness against the us dollar. —— currency analysts. we will have to wait two weeks to see what happens. they give a joyous, rico hizon. they're with us here in bbc news, because still to come: —— stay. reaching out for help —

, boosting the dividend to 12%, a higher cost savings target, 6 billion euros from 4 billion euros, andelievable amount of news. weew plan from the ceo and will talk to him later this morning and get more details on that. at theking a look markets, we will be softer this morning. futures are pointing down. we have firmed over the last few minutes. it looks like we will be down .6 of 1% in london, .4 in paris and .2 of 1% on the dax. the market open is next. mario draghi is coming up shortly. it is a lovely day in london despite the market action. the open four minutes away. guy: a negative start to the session today. london underperforming yesterday. to watch out for. keep an eye on that as well. sixbelly is softening by cents. a reasonably soft open later on. take that off and i can show you what is happening. the pictures you can see, there is the monday low. that is where we are now. keep an eye on one of those levels. >> mario draghi giving his speech at the center for financial studies in frankfurt. we will see if he is more dovish today than usual. let's talk at the open. we are e

and euro-yen.catches the second round of the french presidential election. i would not say, looking at these options, that the positioning is neutral, but certainly less bearish than it was before we got that result from the first round. spread,at the lat bond we have seen a tightening in the spread of more than 18 basis points. .e are now at 49 basis points francis 10-year gilts has hit a three-month low in the session, down nine or 10 basis points. the 10-year bund yields up nine basis points. this yield spread at its lowest since january. finally, a look ahead to other things. gold sinking the most in seven weeks. that is about risk on. the bloomberg dollar index trading at its lowest level since the u.s. election, even though the dollar is gaining against the yen. it is losing against most other currencies. attention turning somewhat to u.s. political risks this week. we are seeing the dollar and gold moving in tandem, falling. mark: theresa may's conservative party proposing a cap on household

matt: we talk about the cable rate and the euro dollar rate, but it's interesting to look at the euro here getting maybe closer to parity. where do you see this headed, considering that you think the e.u. has leverage in these negotiations? >> i think this is going to be the result of a number of factors. first of all, let me be clear that we are relatively bullish on euro-dollar, so even if you have a relatively neutral view on cable, you still see euro back of higher on the this. i think there is an additional reason, and the reason has to do with portfolio flows. crisis,he eurozone debt we've seen a large number of inflows coming to the u.k. from the eurozone, largely because it was a crisis in the eurozone and haven statuse safe of the u.k.. that is gradually being taken out of place right now and i think flows are in the process of regarding. coupled with at the fact that eurozone growth is doing quite well and political risk is diminishing, i think were going to see further euro sterling upside. anna: so where are we now? forecasts over the next couple of quarters suggest were g

why she is still worried about the elections and the euro.ident trump's most popular tainlking has been railing against trade deals like tpp and nafta.

reporter: hiking up the rent from 400 euros to 1200 euros -- a 300% increase.osa and luis paisana take us on a tour of the old city center. paisana heads the bairro alto residents' association, which has been fighting for affordable rents for awhile. he says he knows the many tricks landlords use to make their tenants' lives miserable, until they cave in and accept the termination of their leases. mr. paisana: some landlords take the steps out so older tenants can't access the building. that's how they exert pressure. reporter: last year, portugal was visited by a record number of tourists. 11 million holiday-makers came, many of them to lisbon. and in the capital, many are hoping to benefit from the boom. miguel ortigao, for example, occasionally sublets his apartment to tourists. for the freelancer without a steady income in an increasingly pricey city, the extra cash comes in handy. so in the summer months, he temporarily relocates to his parents. miguel is well aware of voices criticizing these developments. he can see their point, too. but for him, the fin

this is the idea of a trade weighted euro. over we go. weaker euro.le bit of stability right now. alberto, with the better economic data and the europe and the feeling of -- removed from the political ballet, can you say euro-sclerosis is an historical artifact? that it's something from another time? alberto: we need to get out of there. europe has been stuck overrelia nce on monetary policy. wasfamous juncker plan light on spending. the next three chance we have angelain france and merkel in germany with a higher influence from the opposition, more pro-europe. macron and merkel together can engineer something that is pro-spending, a solution for greece. tom: he'll continue with us through the hour. that is a good thing. what a date calendar that we have on bloomberg television and radio today. what a high moment. the former chairman of the federal reserve system alan greenspan. he has been exceptionally cautious on american economic growth. alan greenspan and the 7:00 hour. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is bloomberg "surveill

rid of the euro.no chance, but now she all of a sudden has a chance. so it's a big deal. france is the sixth largest economy from a growth perspective, growth has been anemic for a long time. france is the poster boy for a social welfare system that has totally created essentially a zombie state with a lot of debt and too many people on the welfare rolls. so, getting rid of the euro, i'm not sure what her economic strategy is behind that, but i'm still having my fingers crossed that it's macron that will end up winning and cooler heads will prevail. >> what's one of the logistics of that? if you decide -- if france decides that suddenly they don't want to be a part of the euro, all of these contracts across the european continent have been written in euros. what's it like to unwind that? i assume that's what the market would be worried about, of course? >> right, it's a great question. my guess is, is that over a multi-year period, they'll have almost a parallel currency and tell everybody over the ne

the risk on moves in the euro, a pullback. comes to em currencies. you see them tracking here, potential upside for em fx. the singaporean dollar, taiwanese dollar, all bid. one of our editors on that team saying enjoy the party while it lasts because we could be heading into a hangover with plenty of things looming, north korea celebrating the creation of their military. they could be flexing military muscle potentially with the launching of some ballistic missiles and a potential u.s. government shutdown happening. trump claiming he will have a tax proposal wednesday. we will see how things go. plenty of headwinds. let's get you caught up with first word news. the pboc governor has adopted a reassuring tone, saying china is expected growth target of 6.5 percent is within reach and that financial risks are well under control. website,n the imf officials will maintain what he called prudent and neutral policy and a confident of preventing and disseminating threats. china's diesel fuel exports surged to of record in march as re

market, it is the bonds and the euro reflecting that as weltm is., which are resolved at the moment. there will be some nervousness in the next few weeks ahead of the next round, but most of the good news has been factored in early. this is probably the first of several summer stories. we are heading into the summer period, when the economic activity around the world tends to be quieter and the markets are more fragile. i think we will see a focus on china and the potential us shutdown is the next stories. those stories are in the papers and cover will return for that later. more still to come. we we re that later. more still to come. we were here from the co—founder of a company who had the inspiration for award—winning greeting cards while dudley laugher home with a newborn. you with business live from bbc news. the price of property in the uk continues to rise. online housing portal rightmove says that the prices of homes coming to the market is up 1.1% on last month. but the annual rise of 2.2% is the lowest it's been forfour years — so are pric

richard: the euro yen and the euro swiss and the euro dollar all probably go lower. the key metric to look at will be french bonds and how they react relatives german bonds. that's going to be the cleanest and most granular way of looking at what the impact of the results will be. we won't get that until monday morning. the bond markets will be open until then. think we will get the reaction in the fx markets. vonnie: they are fascinating, richard. i was looking at our markets live login one of the things it points out is the eastern european bloc countries see real up sick in protection buying. uptick in protection eyeing. that is another proxy for looking at this. richard: i think this is what mark was talking about. reversal,ollar risk the options market on the euro-based,ything it's definitely something that we have seen moving. i think it's important to note that we are not it week levels of anxiety at the moment. we actually saw a little bit more investor anxiety in february. when we actually had those one months corresponding. i think you're right. fx will be

billion euros per month.hey also said there is a sense of relief and the global trade risk. >> what they met may have come out of the meeting, perhaps, the risk of protection from trade protectionism has receded. that the markets of in the course reassessment. for the u.s. fiscal priority. frankly we would not be going beyond that. season in both europe and the u.s., companies are expected to report. with a combined value of $2 trillion, at the moment wall street is waiting for those reports. nasdaq, dow and s&p up in positive territory. the market closes with eight media stocks among the worst performers. now the u.s. president has been given speculation that he will pull out of nafta. the white house was preparing an executive order to quit the free trade agreement. 1.4er the generated trillion dollars in trilateral trade for the u.s., canada, and the. now the president says he will do nothing of the sort. mexico and ient of have a very good relationship. also the prime minister of canada who i have a very

the weaker euro and a stronger russian ruble. of the stock the turkish main index down more than 1% before that referendum and next we -- let's move to abigail doolittle with a deeper look at treasuries. abigail: we did see a technical break on the 10 year yield. chart we have been looking at over the last few months. yesterday as president trump indicated, he prefers a weaker dollar and lower rates. we did see the 10 year yield finally break out of this range we have been watching for months as the 10 year yield drops below 2.3%, overnight. recovery,ing a bit of but it is clear that this range has broken to the downside. the 50 day moving average is trained to slope to the downside -- is starting to slope to the downside. us heo of guggenheim told believes that the breakout -- breakdown out of this range suggests we are likely to see a move to the downside at a minimum of 2%. the ideaor referenced that the 35 year long bull market in bonds that this strong downtrend we see in the 10 year takes aices -- said it long time to rever

dollar, and bearish euro for a little while.he end the year, i think markets will focus on the ecb itself starting to taper is asset purchase program, and that will ultimately lead to support at at that -- for the euro stage. >> now that this political uncertainty has been reduced, is the economic are story -- economic recovery story going to be more pronounced in europe? market, thehink the leave a little bit up its sleeve for the second round of the election, even though polls are suggesting a pronounced win for macron. markets are skeptical of polls, so a little bit of residual nervousness. >> we will leave it there. thank you. next, how the french election is playing out in the markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ did you know slow internet can actually hold your business back? say goodbye to slow downloads, slow backups, slow everything. comcast business offers blazing fast and reliable internet that's over 6 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. say hello to internet speeds up to 250 mbps. and add phone and tv f

reporter: hiking up the rent from 400 euros to 1200 euros -- a 300% increase.osa and luis paisana take us on a tour of the old city center. paisana heads the bairro alto residents' association, which has been fighting for affordable rents for awhile. he says he knows the many tricks landlords use to make their tenants' lives miserable, until they cave in and accept the termination of their leases. mr. paisana: some landlords take the steps out so older tenants can't access the building. that's how they exert pressure. reporter: last year, portugal was visited by a record number of tourists. 11 million holiday-makers came, many of them to lisbon. and in the capital, many are hoping to benefit from the boom. miguel ortigao, for example, occasionally sublets his apartment to tourists. for the freelancer without a steady income in an increasingly pricey city, the extra cash comes in handy. so in the summer months, he temporarily relocates to his parents. miguel is well aware of voices criticizing these developments. he can see their point, too. but for him, the fin

the euro/dollar at 1.0651. and dollar weakness ahead of the japanese yen and the president xi and donald trump meeting in florida. >>> mercedes-benz has reported their strongest ever month for sales in march selling 228,000 cars. they delivered their best quarter of all time january to march selling more than 560,000 units. in europe, the german brand eclipsed 1 00,000 vehicles, shipping over 35,000 and recalling that the u.s. vehicle sales data eventually was weak. then we saw yesterday we had the strength of new car registrations coming out of the uk. so it seems like a patchy picture with auto recovery. we have seen a strong recovery over the past recent years. >> we have. that's in line with some of the european recoveries that we've seen. i wonder to what extent the sales numbers are sustainable if we see a strengthening of the euro/dollar. how much of these record sales numbers from not just mercedes but also dmw is down to the weak euro/dollar? >> yeah. weak euro/dollar, and then global economic recovery

the euro is at 1.06. a stronger euro. the curve is flattening on the 2-10 spread.e story about that on the bloomberg today. and there is oil which captures the heart of it. dropping gamead changing level for cable. i put the euro swissie in there which hasn't done anything and it is sort of a euro safe haven measure. it is about the election in france. it is definitely political, left right and center. they rallied on tuesday but we are expected to have the vote today. shares are rising. this coupon the producer, this is what i want to show you. this is as they rebounded thanks to the actual metal prices and chinese equities are higher because of that. index, we are nearing a political elections are a good idea to look at the vix and it is down. the day.chart of alan ruskin provides this wisdom and it is set up the street bid on sterling. here is brexit and the white series is sterling. and the blue is the positioning on the street. down here is where the glue for sterling.ng up here is where people in hindsight, wiser, like ubs and others with currency and stabili

to keep the euro.atee is going to be a about the euro staying in this is more about the tone for the european project. bigger risk is what is happening in italy this year and the year and you could see some volatility and increases. >> thinking about the manufacturing index, take politics out of the side and and there isops too much and it is not that bad. " it is not just a sugar rush. the point i made earlier with the negative you look ates and what is happening in japan and highly supportive measures for assets that are starting to recover. >> thank you very much. >> later, we'll have a conversation and you will get a lot more of me and double. that is it here. >> manus is not going anywhere. is 7:26 here. 24 minutes until the european equities. manus will be back. stay with us. this is bloomberg. i've spent my life planting a size-six, non-slip shoe into that door. on this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. but these days it's phones before forks. they want wifi out here. but

union leaders demand to 2.5 billion euros. continued, there are concerns it may lead to food shortages. welcome to french guiana's big port. nothing arrives to or through the sports these days. unloadingrking here these containers just before going on strike two weeks ago. cliques before the conflict there were about 300 dry containers and about 50 refrigerated containers with food delivery destined for local businesses and households. these containers have not been moved out. the access to the port had been blocked. >> the containers cannot be unloaded. and much of the food inside has gone bad. meanwhile cargo ships have been divergent neighboring countries. >> we usually have two lines of container ships per week. that is a volume of about 400 to 600 containers per week. to 1000 containers have failed to reach guiana. ,> stores are closed and others shelves are getting lighter by the day. yet president and businesses are still determined to continue their strike, pushing to get a toter deal from paris improve security and th

guy: what about the euro? how much of a discount is being priced in the euro?everything going on, you would argue the single currency should be more expensive, it looks more cheaper. do you get a big pop? with: one of the things the euro is it is also a dollar story. trade, theumpflation euro has essentially suffered. unwind ofly, bc and the trump trade which has resulted in a weaker dollar, therefore a stronger euro. your chart when it comes to risk shows the downside in terms of distribution of outcomes is quite significant. you can see the euro below parity, for example. of flowobal head strategy and solutions at stockton will stay with us. up next, we will break down big movers in the tech sector are, a huge drop. more than 14%. we will tell you why. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: welcome back to the european market open. 22 minutes into trading. he have breaking news here on chipmaker dialogue semiconductor , absolutely tanking in the early trade after a note out by bankhaus lampe the -- downgrading, the stock is down 18%. dialogue here in white. in blue, i co

the euro-yen up nearly 4% and the euro dolling -- euro-dollar, take a look at the one at the top. does the euro outperform the most? from the euroank buck? >> there are two competing themes. political upset causes systemic shock. reinforces the behavior we've seen in recent years. hand, it would appear to the political uncertainty in the u.s., middle east, and asia. at this point, but we've seen in recent years is that growth has led to expectations of a stronger u.s. dollar and a weaker yen. on the other hand, as you whenoned in the beginning, we see the inflation thenrential come through, were going to see a sustained new thing emerging in currencies. we're not at the end of the electoral season yet. and events are unfolding geopolitically in terms of north korea. anna: unemployment here in focus overbeen a big recent years and the inability to bring down some of those stubborn unemployment rates. they been coming down, but not as fast as many would like. it's nice to make the argument that if employment does come maybe will see the reduced appeal of the populist argument. thoug

broad strength against the pound and euro. euro, $1.07 flat.to speed for headlines outside the business world. : in france, the shooting on the streets in paris is impacting sunday's presidential election. some candidates ended their campaign a day early. marine le pen once in islamic radicals and france to be detained or expelled. fillon wants to support the least the attack happened on the champs-elysees. one police officer was killed, one police officer was wounded, as well as a bystander. the gunman was killed. the islamic state claims responsibility. the suspect who bombed a german soccer team saying he wanted to gain profit from the team's share prices. one player was wounded in the attack. iran, the former hard-line president has been disqualified from running in next month's election. told him noteader to run to avoid polarizing the country. his disqualification is seen as a boost to the current president. he is expected to win the moderate vote. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than

spacex estimates 56.2 million euro's for its model. spacex and blue origin are still relatively new to the game. bezos selfies -- says he is selling shares to fund his rocket company. he looks to launch 11 minute space rides starting next year. for mixed picture in europe the trading day. we have gains in paris. london and frankfort are in the red. u.s.es that came from the federal reserve on wednesday showing it is considering tightening its monetary policy by reducing them of the assets on its books. the company behind kfc and pizza hut in china has beat expectations by growing sales in of three months to the end february. sales rose by 1% raising hopes the company might the emerging from its two-year slump caused by a food safety scare. french energy company is deciding today on the future of france's oldest nuclear power plant. unions are protesting at the board meeting in paris is up to 2000 jobs could be affected by the closure. facebook is taking action to stop the spread of revenge pouring. -- porn. system across the facebook,

euro-dollar -- the can go lower.lar can go as low .90 which is consistent with the move we saw after the brexit referendum. anna: after -- as we build up to the first round where do we get these kinds of moves coming and if they are going to happen? it depends whether the pen makes it into the second round. do you think if she makes it an, extreme, shef this probably will make it in so when do we get that extreme of, we have to wait until after the second round results or do we get something before then? >> it could be between the two rounds. if the pen makes it to the second round and if she does in the first round, [inaudible] or if melenchon makes it to the he is notnd, although directly against the euro zone, many of his policies are inconsistent with eurozone membership. oppositey were on the side of things from you and they were relaxed about the outcome and they were saying that le pen would have to get something in the 40% range in the first round for him to be worried about her prospects in the second round.

dropped to 1.8 6 billion euros.shy of estimates. -- has raised its outlook for 2014 on surging profit from the mercedes-benz luxury car unit and improving commercial vehicle operations. the carmaker predicted growth in profits compared with its previous forecast. estimates compiled by bloomberg suggest earnings before interest and taxes this year will rise 8.5% to 14 billion euros. has exhaustedit all options after workers voted against job cuts aimed at salvaging the italian airline. that pushes the carrier toward administration for the second time in a decade. the company says its recapitalization tied to the savings plan is effectively dead and it will start legal procedures as funds run out. 'sxury goods giant kering first-quarter revenue has exceeded analyst estimates. comparative sales way above expectations of a 13.3% rise as the gucci and same amount brands turned in industry-leading growth and declines reversed at bottega. shares have hit a record high in today's session. mark? mark: the barclays chief exec

the euro could be vulnerable, couldn't it?y stable, where we have seen a bit of reaction has been bond markets, said the yield on french government bonds have risen, so french government bonds have risen, so people are a bit nervous... so the return on investment has gone 7 the return on investment has gone es. the return on investment has gone up? yes. but if we saw a second round run—off between melenchon and le pen, the markets would be worried because the implication is possibly an exit from the eurozone. at the moment the polls are saying around 1196 moment the polls are saying around 11% probability of that and you think, well, that seems rather low, but go back to last year, the same poll said 30% probability of donald trump winning at the same kind of stage. -- is 1396 trump winning at the same kind of stage. -- is 13% probability. one thing we have learned is that we do not listen to the polls any more! let's talk about tesla, voluntary global recall of the xand x and model xand models, x and model s, they say only 2%

i think the euro has the dollar.e over the we've gone past the euro risk.nk it would be premature to think that today's meeting, we necessarily get a shift in guidance. we may have to wait until june for that. i want to pivot away from the developed market and toward market currencies. will -- wu. >> i think that is the concern particular a big because -- particularly because we feel they will start to roll over because we have had this gradual a stick monetary policy tightening in china. the interior ration in the credit cycle, we expect that to weigh on china. significant lift in exports. june-july perio d we'll get pressure on in the taiwan dollar. those are the third and perhaps for the best performing em currencies year to date. inrone thing i would say is are likely to do relatively well for the next month or two given the yield attraction they have which provides them with some buffer. shery ahn: touching the strongest level since august 2015, i went to be hong kong currency. this is another one that is making a big move to the dollar. you can see th

global stocks in the euro surging this morning.rket rundown is straight ahead. >>> and we'll call this merging monday. a pretty good deal. longtime medical suppliers getting together, bekts becton dickinson buying bard. yeah, that's c.r. bard. >>> and a big week in washington. congress returns to try to avoid a government shutdown. president trump meanwhile pledging new details on tax reform. and repealing obamacare, i don't know. monday, may 24th, 2017. "squawk box" begins right now. >> announcer: welcome back, you're watching "squawk box," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. ♪ >>> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernin and andrew ross sorkin. we have the prince national anthem playing. let's take a look at equity futures. things have been markedly higher after the results of the french election came in. it was not a deviation from what was anticipated, but we have some elections that have surprised

is voted out, the other major thing you want to see reformed is the euro zone.e wants to see a budget put in place for the eurozone country, a finance minister, it is the governance that is a major problem. he said back in 2015 with the economic crisis, the bailout wrangling on and on, -- -- the eu and le pen has promised to take france out of the euro and bring tariffs on imports again, bring border controls back, and saying she would like to hold a referendum on membership overall, and this is where the national front has changed. before it was we want out of the eu immediately and as soon as possible. now, we want to talk to the eu and see if we could change france's relationship and if they do not call within six months, she will put the vote to people. it remains to be seen what the french people will have to say. suggest they are more or less happy. >> a french paper complaining? i never. thank you very much. for a look at how markets are reacting to the first round of the presidential election, let's go to the parents stock exchange where we are joined by

the euro also jumping to a five-month high.irst time the banks had really since its asset purchase program scaled off a little bit here. finally, moving on to the m and a side of things. axo with a new record high. ppi sweetening the bid to buy the paint company. akzo says it will quote/unquote carefully review and consider the company's proposal. a lot going on here, of course. green across the board, carl. back over to you. >> a lot of news. thank you. >>> when we come back, a street apple analyst with a call to worry some investors. "squawk alley" continues in a moment. and the wolf huffed and puffed... like you do sometimes, grandpa? well, when you have copd, it can be hard to breathe. it can be hard to get air out, which can make it hard to get air in. so i talked to my doctor. she said... symbicort could help you breathe better, starting within 5 minutes. symbicort doesn't replace a rescue inhaler for sudden symptoms. symbicort helps provide significant improvement of your lung function. symbicort is for copd, including c

the eu steps up efforts to combat its trillion euro loan problem. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." 1:18 in the afternoon in hong kong. all the markets are closed for public holiday, be aware of that. 6:18 in london. let's get to the bloomberg business flash. deborah: anna, thank you. u.s. auto sales came up short last month, with ford and kia leading declines, amid plunging demands for sedans. ford fell 7.2% while kia and hyundai dropped 11.2%. general motors, fiat chrysler, and others came in short of expectation. march is supposed to be when they rebound from declines in january and february. tokyo afterped in news that the struggling conglomerate will seek more funds after its westinghouse nuclear unit filed for bankruptcy. the company is to hold a lenders meeting and ask for additional assistance to cover a temporary surge in losses. the ecb estimates that about the need about 6.4 billion euros to bolster their balance sheets. according to people familiar with the matter it also considers them to be

here is the euro. over the last three months, the euro has done quite well.eft this chart wider because it shows you the gap higher monday and the super surge we have seen since then. dollar,y in the something worth paying attention to. the ftse openings offer this morning. no clear sense of direction either way. we are not going anywhere in a hurry right now. we need a new context of that big rally. we have seen some reason to sell . momentum indicated in the states is positive right now. something to pay attention to. money is flowing into european equities fairly aggressively. such a big move. people are going to take a look at what is going on in more detail. that is the open. we are softer in london. here is manus cranny. manus: very good data do you -- o you. look at euro yen. 4% rally in three days. look at euro-dollar as well. a little bit less. the real momentum is in euro-yen. european stocks this morning, just a tad lower. keep a tab on credit suisse. what it trees going for the -- credit suisse going for the r rating. the jewel in the crown so to

it's been euro strength that is the story. yesterday the euro hit 1.095. just below that.joying a strong performance back end of last week and this week. french election results came in as expected. the dollar bouncing back a bit today. about 0.10% against the yen and the pound. >>> approaching the top of the hour, that means the team is getting ready for "squawk box." becky quick has a look at what's coming up. i assume taxes, taxes, taxes on the agenda? >> taxes, taxes, taxes, that's the big story today, but we can't forget earnings, too. earnings have been driving the market gains we've seen over the last couple of days. especially yesterday. the dow futures jumped significantly after we heard from five dow components, four of which beat on the bottom line. today three more dow components reporting this morning before the opening bell. procter & gamble, boeing and utx. procter & gamble's cfo, jon moeller will join us at 7:00. mixed futures this morning, but we've seen strength from earnings, that's been fueling the market rally this week. >>> we'll also talk with scott

that would be the one-month euro-dollar volatility. actually spiking quite a bit, almost nearing that level after the brexit vote. what is this telling us? xavier: there is some edging investorshey can buy to euro assets. the risk iss why approaching a placebo decision that is increasing. u.s.happened on the dollar, this is why euro has remained relatively stable over the past few months, despite the increase in despite of what could happen in the elections. shery: it is highly unlikely that we might see le pen. it is highly unlikely she will take france out of the euro. shall we be buying the debt going into the election? xavier: it is something that could be applied, for sure. it is always a risky bet when you try to build up your investment depending on the political outcome. what will happen, whatever the outcome of the president francen, the fact that will be part of the european union and will remain top. there are a list of political insist thatder to opinion. euros are on strong support. shery: thank you for joining us. coming

there does seem to be quite a deals, as well as in the euro right now. assuming we don't get the markets mentioned, the -- google, and other giants expect to hit revenues of nearly 70 billion euros. thousands of visitors and thereds of companies, but industries facing some harsh reality as some consumers are slow to adopt technologies. >> back to the real world. touted reality has been as a means of revolutionizing how we play games, watch tv, travel, and even communicate. it was supposed to propel vr to the mainstream. but sales are not quite matching the hype, with the number of products shifting a full 40% behind forecast of this year, according to researchers. industriescar show, struck an optimistic note. --i think we are just crazy engaging with an dealing with emerging technology in their life. i think by 2020 we will start to see it much better marketplace, a much stronger marketplace. >> industry heavyweights are reluctant to release sales figures. neither htc or oculus have published sales figures. sell is the inexpensive goggles that can be us

aymeric: the euro, you think about the consequences of the euro.the moment we are facing the highest level of unemployment in france. the euro is now the danger and it will follow this way if we don't stop it. we are the only country to say that. there's many countries which are contesting the euro. talking about greece obviously, but also italy and spain would have an interest to change their currency as well. caroline: what is your favorite contender in the runoff? would you prefer to face emmanuel macron, who is currently the favorite, to face her in the runoff? would she prefer to face another candidate? aymeric: this is the choice of the people. we will take whoever it is and we will fight so that we could actually win in the end. caroline: aymeric merlaud, thank you so much, advisor for the national front, who like many french people, followed these debates last night on national television. nejra: caroline connan, thanks so much for joining us and with theus up to date french presidential election. i want to show you a great function, e u go