a kicouple of big talls in the transport sector evercore writing that the uncertain consumer backdropld hurt volumes while noting the stock is trading at the high ends of its historic average fedex shares are sinking 4% after evercore added the stock to its tactical underperform list but keeping an outperform rating joining us is the analyst behind the call, john chapel. it seems like a macro driven shift in posture >> that's absolutely correct, mike thanks for having me first of all, we're seeing that the stocks have really run along with the market. the fundamentals at best are status quo and at worst are a little bit worse we looked at the two macro drivers of this report first inventories. we were on your show on april 8th talking about inventories well below the major retailers started flagging this as an issue as a yellow flag to transports these inventories continue to be very bloated you're seeing it with walmart and target last week they have both talked about billions of dollars of order cancellations which cannot be good for freight demand. the other thing we looked at for

of course evercore talked about how business is likely to slow down.hort term trading point people let's talk about long-term investing. that's what we care about on mad money. if i owned at u.p.s. i would absolutely sell. for a hedge fund that needs to worry about performance. you might never be able to get back in if that happens. i think the big strategist might be a piece today saying too many people are jumping the gun and making a false pipit as though the feds are almost done tightening. that was rigorous work. we have two pieces of terrific from a morgan stanley. they are calling defensive names at a time it does pay to be defensive. we've got texaco in the open the other day. all of the pieces have raised price targets for john deere, emphasizing how what they could be looking at multiple years of success. it also helps with infrastructure. i like these types of pieces because they are not hedge fund calls. there is no hurry. you can use this to build positions as long as you recognize that the fed isn't finished hitting the brakes on the econ

this fall, heading into the holiday season, is going to be especially potent, kirk materne from evercore, thank you. >>> look at the stock of sofi, receiving more clarity on student loans, president biden announcing he will forgive $10,000 in student debt and extend the payment pause one final time this is good news for sofi since the pause has been a drag on its student loan segment here to discuss, anthony nodo, good morning, anthony, great that you could join us this is good news, you guys have been in limbo. the urn certainty ended. when do you anticipate that happening, and now you have kind of another backdrop of rising interest rates how does that all factor in? >> good morning, and thank you for having me. first and foremost, i just want to thank the president and the administration for finally making a definitive decision, both on forgiveness, which has been an unanswered question for years, as well as the end of the moratorium the fact that the presidentdid make the decision is really clarifying for borrowers they now know where they stand for those that are eligible for the $1

manus: the one line that i love was evercore, saying the last place of hope of hiding was within themarkets, that got trashed on friday. so the question is, whether we see a significant repricing again in the dollar? .88 is achievable in 2023 across a complete risk implosion across europe. dani: not just the euro heading lower, the sterling also down nearly 1% at 1.16. that's it for daybreak, more bloomberg to come. ♪ this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. dani: welcome to "bloomberg markets: europe." i am denny met --

one is evercore retail customer is somewhat sitting on the sidelines in this type of turbulent marketn that in past cycles. they will come back on and engage with some other things. there were some echoes -- there were some episodic properties that happened during this quarter. we have incredible risk management. we have zero exposure to that. there was an aspect where we did not benefit. during these types of cycles, you had traders making up the bulk of activity. a lot of that activity happens offshore. to that extent, we might not have participated as much as others in the ecosystem. it we on that is we drive more international growth, make sure we participate in that upside and we are investing heavily in derivatives which users are showing a lot of demand for. >> what is your take on the crypto inter-? are you seeing signs of started to thaw? >> i am smart enough to know not to make a random production about where we are in the cycle. coinbase has been through four major cycles, 10 years of operating this company. we just know how to run a long-term business. we know how to prese

jonathan: you mentioned evercore. the fed watches over evercore.over this fed, this market, and financial conditions. financial conditions have gone easier over the last few months. tom: let's go into that. help me here with financial conditions. the financial conditions went from 1 standard deviation to a much better 2. lisa: it is easy. yes, you are seeing that across-the-board. how much do you say " this is full hardy," and how much do you say " this is a bear market"? in addition to the weaker than expected inflation data, the rolloff we have seen in commodities --how much pressure does not take off gains? you asked tom earlier why art stocks down more on this chinese data? at what point does it reduce demand from the commodity complex, which relieves some of the tension for u.s. companies? tom: 100% of our viewers think texts -- oil. why exactly is that a bad thing? chicago copper, 3.56, down 3%. jonathan: it is driven by weaker demand, and not weaker supply. this white house wants to see this carry-on. euro-dollar 1.02. futures are softer but

the chief equity strategist at evercore is with us. you call this the gray zone, why is it? reasonably epic bear market from january-june that was not only the epitome of don't fight the fed but market took the hawkish narrative and ran with it in an unprecedented way causing the biggest losses in the combined portfolio we've seen in years and then it all turns. it was june and a few weeks ago. now we are at a point whether we go back to the don't fight the fed mantra or do we think about the unfolding of the fed easing off which is not at all in the script now even though people are discounting that. tom: david rosenberg and lou tilly were talking about the disinflation story. we are going to 4% they say. what happens to your world if we get a disinflation? >> stocks do well. tom: double digit well? >> not in this environment, not yet. the likelihood is if that happens, 1% gdp is probably where we are next year and that's still a constrained environment. you've got three fed speakers today. if you think about it, going back to the first hike in march, every time there was a

evercore isi saying it validates plug's strategy.le and wells fargo saying it improves the visibility of long-term targets. it may not be a household name but it's been around for decades. it hit an all-time high during the dotcom bubble and shares are down since they struggled to gain widespread attraction and has its fair share of critics including those who say the renewable energy used to make green hydrogen should be used for electricity. >> pippa, a couple of different thoughts one is the inflation reduction act. we're trying to parse through the impact of a lot of those green initiatives in that act. when you think about amazon's scale and its power, is rivian a cautionary tale or not >> first on their inflation row d reduction act, that is a huge catalyst shares of plug power off about 80% since we saw them announce that deal. we've seen other names all rise and that's because there is a tax credit for green hydrogen specifically that right off the bat would make it more cost competitive with other forms of hydrogen, like gra

evercore liking dell this morning, the firm adding the name to its outperform list and the results thursdayon could beat estimates. >>> and after this break, more on what to expect from two other names, zoom and palo alto network ahead of results tonight. don't go away. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. >>> looking for a read on software demand zoom, palo alto, they're get ing set to report results in just a few hours. frank holland is here with what to keep an eye on. >> they've had a bit of a choppy month since an upgrade raising the price target to 700 a share. that was a 40% upside at the time, but the street still has a generally favorable outlook for this stock every analyst on the street has a buy or overweight rating revenues are forecast 28%, two big metrics to watch next generation security arr this is the growth of decline in money from existing custome

mark, it is great to have you back, evercore isi on booking, i wonder if you think the street is makingh of what is called room night deceleration >> well, carl, there is room night deceleration and airbnb showed it too. i don't know why you wouldn't see it from expedia tonight. there's a little bit of an extra warning for expedia in that booking holdings seemed to have relatively strong north american growth not only will you have this kind of deceleration across the industry, the travel trade is over but you also will probably have market share pressures on ex peeled ya'. i'm cautious on expedia going into print tonight you have to ask yourself if you are a trader or investor if you are an investor, the action question now is as booking and companies like airbnb done enough voinnovations they can grow faster post-covid? i think they have put in enough innovations and that's why i like both of those stocks. >> that's explains trimming your target but keep the out perform? >> yes, carl especially with a name like booking. look, it is a high-quality asset, trading close to 19 times gap e

julian emanuel at evercore isi says it is supportive of the rebound in tech.er, when you factor in the move in meme stocks and surge in call actions volume he says it is reminiscent of the speculation in 2020 when growth began versus stocks. an 87% beat rate across the sector cisco is set to report tonight >> thank you very much, seema. >>> jenny, over to you we were talking before the show, hope i'm not talking too much, but you were saying everybody is focused on tech. obviously big inflows in tech but also in other areas. >> one of the things we were talking about is consumer discretionary is up 26% this quarter. industrials are up 15% financials are up 14%. so i think it is important for us to remember that, you know, it is not all tech and this is something we have been talking about for the last year and change really, is that the market leadership is broadening out. i think we are doing a disservice to ourselves if we continue to focus solely on tech it is time to round out the portfolios it is time to look more broadly and think, you know, does b & g f

evercore initiating an underperform call on target. it's one of our calls of the day.wn target. >> i do. so look, i went to target as a trade but i'm still there. i'd be surprised if brian cornell, and this is as much a bet on brian cornell as anything, by the way i'd be surprised if brian cornell missed for a fourth time he missed two quarters ago, this last quarter and then came out and said, hey, we're going to lower guidance, things are worse than we saw. normally i wouldn't get involved in a stock like that because it shows that management has no idea what's going on to have to re -- you know, readjust your earnings two weeks after you report them. but in this case i'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt. i can't promise that i'm going to be there when they report, but right now this is my market exposure. >> let's kick this around for a minute a lot of big retail earnings next week, include home depot and lowe's josh, where are you at on the state of the consumer? are you confident about the consumer's ability to spend with inflation easing a bit and espec

and so if i could, i just want to show you this comment here from evercore isi but b. what the minutes mean for next week's jackson hole what it says is the minutes raise the stakes further into jackson hole with market cans less well braced for a hawkish message but also more primed to rip further if powell fails to push back. we'll have a bunch of fed presidents as you know there and so whether it is a consistent message, or do some think that the danger is rising that we go too far the other comment in the minutes that maybe the effects of financial tightening are happening more rapidly in the economy than previous cycles all of that argues for less fed even while the fed inks as josh was sawing does remain squarely focused on bringing down inflation. >> when you said steve is right, i thought you were talking in the third person >> i'm not that vain >> we're seeing ppi, cpi, pce regulating a little bit. obviously we'll get one more cycle of the reports, not before jackson hole, but before the september meeting. can more downward trends influence fed policy do you h

here to help us with the chart school, evercore head of technical analysis rich ross.nks for joining us. start with the s&p 500, right, we've been talking about resistance right around 4150, 4200. i read your work. you're talking about, forget about all these little spots of resistance, you're looking maybe, you said 12% move, 4620 there about. >> yes, sir. charles: you are pretty confident about that? >> i have high conviction across asset classes but across the macro. charles: specific with the s&p 500 what takes it that far. >> you know it is interesting in your prior segment you talked about the extreme optimism. in the stock market we have this exact opposite with extreme pessimism, sentiment is quite dour, good reason first half of the year. given headlines you know the myriad of concerns. as those recede you have a market with lot of momentum, not a lot of buyers, that is exactly what you want to see. as you see them off the sidelines that takes us up to those levels. charles: market needs leadership, right? megacap stocks gotten swagger back. second names that

leaving some wondering have we reached a bottom yet evercore's rich ross, walk us through charts, great to have you. let's start with software, if you're looking at the igv, what is it telling you right now? >> yeah, thank you so much for having me, carl, well, it's telling me what much of tech and markets more broadly are telling us, that after a very promising rally in lows we've fallen back into that pattern, certainly exacerbated by the jackson hole comments but what we see now is an etf, if you will, and a sector etf that's struggling to hold onto support here, around that 50 day moving average but our contention is, carl, that software will find its footing and that breakout you saw in july, that surge was really sort of a preview into the future of what we will expect this fall, and i don't view the recent weakness post jackson hole and going into the event as sort of a prelude to a bigger retest of the lows. >> do you think, is that view getting ratified by the socks or the cues or ark, or crypto, or anything else? >> you could keep going, carl and just keep naming stocks and se

lauren: evercore isi had it at 15 so it's near that right now. they went from 13 to 15.. stuart: that be rum wouldn't it? >> i found that out saturday. lauren: it refreshes you, big in the yoga community. stuart: that's what i was looking for , an explanation of why coconut milk is good for you i'll move on. lauren: coconut water. stuart: you have to be entertain ing because there's not much movement. one company claims, this is i'm interested in this , this is what i want. lauren: [laughter] stuart: a company claiming their new plane can fly between new york and london in three and a half hours. i want it. it's just like concord. gotta do it. iran claims they were not involved in the stabbing attack and the country had previously offered 3 million bucks for anybody who would kill him, with ev a report. the fbi and department of justice say there has been an increase in violent threats, following the raid on mar-a-lago is that domestic terrorism? we're into it, next. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ we believe there's an innovator in all of us. ♪ ♪ that's why we build technology that makes it po

. >> price target raised by morgan stanley, evercore, wells fargo raises it. when you look at what he's done, credit suisse rating, it's amazing he pulled himself out of this tailspin because they also named a fellow by the name of blake jordanson from electronic arts, cfo, they lost their cfo, rainey, to walmart >> we get the opening bell the cnbc realtime exchange, at the big board, the professional fighters league. [ bell ] >> it's been nice to see tourism rebound in this city >> yes it was so interesting that one of the big raps, again, of airbnb was that they didn't have enough rooms in big cities it's just at a time when people know if you go to a big city you can see things again everything's open in new york. so, there is -- as long as chesky can get rooms, ceo, airbnb, in these cities, they'll sell out he was saying was a virtual circle new york is very much back. >> there's a look at airbnb. as we said earlier, above revenue for the quarter, bookings, still implied growth of about 25, street's in the 30s, and there has been discussion after hilton an

. >> today it's evercore >> that's a good call.od quarter last week, target i thought was good in light of what the -- they got rid of all that merchandise. i'll tell you, there were a lot better quarters that were good, a lot of good quarters versus bad quarters but europe was down, germany's down, woe is me. we're so woe is me right now, seasonally bad, it's tough to come to work right now >> really? >> no, i'm just saying >> together for the first time in i don't even remember how long >> we don't have good things to say to people. i try with target, i try with walmart, i try with cisco, i shot me down on every single one of them. >> without saying a word >> every one even though you're having a good time in real life, you have to throw cold water on all the things i like. >> i'm sorry reality bites. >> a quick reminder, you can always get in on the cnbc investing club with jim, find out more at cnb cnbc.com/jointheclub treasuries got to 2997 this morning. we're down 400, risking the first back to back 1% declines for the s&p si

after labor day here, including big names, barkley's going to have a consumer staples conference, evercoreh conference, wells fargo is going to have a health care conference that's going to happen citigroup, and goldman sacks has a retailing conference, the first week of labor day, first week of september and normally these conferences have minimal impact on the market but remember, carl, we have not had major earnings commentary since the middle of july for most of these companies, normally that's not on issue but a lot has changed since the middle of july to the first or second week in september and i think companies may have a lot of commentary on how businesses in the third quarter could potentially move the market there's your two things, look at the economic indicators and look at the sell side conferences coming up. at the same time it's good to stop and remind everybody that even though we've had a terrible friday and monday is not so great. a very long way from the lows, the rallies have been fairly significant in the third quarter, friday, not accepted, friday excepted, of course

a lot of people do this, predict our copyright, julian emanuel at evercore with earnings, i'm shocked. it was a surprise to the upside and he rounded up, and inflation at 13.9%. nominal earnings up 6.4%. the world is not going to die. jonathan: how much is that synergy? tom: it is part of it, no question. have we discarded the "omg recession' talk? jonathan: i think maybe. we have pushed out the delays, but ultimately avoidable. tom: we will talk about -- we will talk to jim, jackson hole. and he will save no, no recession. jonathan: maybe next week we will go through our lineup. futures right now positive for .1% on the s&p, nasdaq up .2%, 1%. yields up, 288, prude positive. 89.36. kailey: and the fact that oil is so much better than it was speaks to the demand. it will be a focus<9]ñ on the u. economy leader. a series of economic data points, arguably less important than retail sales and we are going to get weekly jobless claims. we are expecting tuned 44,000 on initial -- 244,000 on initial claims. this goes back to a week when we have seen a steady decline. it speaks to a cooling

julian emanuel at evercore isi has been outstanding about keeping track of the beans.ue growth in reported earnings has been double-digit big inflation affected. lisa: it has been inflation affected and for now it has been relatively strong. it has been interesting to see that even in the same shop you have different strategists arguing against each other. julian emanuel account among those that do have conflicting narratives. this is a faith-based market in terms of where earnings margins are going to go. yes they have whole -- have held in so far but we heard from morgan stanley they were shrink a lot of productivity, how much it is declining, looking at producer prices, cpi we had today, putting it together and saying something has to give. tom: i have been remiss on this, productivity i will call it a three ratio dynamic area a lot of moving parts. mattered yesterday is unit labor cost which goes to what lisa mentioned earlier, your wage after inflation is not so good. kailey: and that will be something crucial to watch as we have a conversation whether the united