joining us this morning as we said, evercore isi vice chair. i do wonder putting this week into perspective how prescriptive you the fed chair was and how much depends on numbers still to come? >> it's been a crazy week, even by recent standards in terms of fed signals driving the market up, down, left and right i think there's, frankly, a lot of confusion at the end of this. i don't think powell's signaling was partly consistent. what's new is he came out more hawkish than many of us expected he clearly put 50 in play for the next meeting in march. it debate, of course, is whether he was signaling a strong default to do 50 putting in play alongside 25 with the day to decide he talked about the employment report, cpi tuesday. my read remains that he was intending to put 50 and 25 on equal footing and let the data decide i think he's saying, we need some reassurance from this data relative to the red hot data we got for early 2023 it needs to be appreciably more moderate to stick with 25, otherwise we'll go to 50 i don't read him as signaling a

julian emanuel with evercore. the uptrend that jess was talking about is something that has been thrown a lot of cold water on since the rally we saw in january. do you do from here? -- what do you do from here? julian: we have to acknowledge the s&p 500 has done absolutely nowhere for four months. we are stuck between 3800 and 4200 -- my apologies, i will beg to differ a little bit on the effective interest rates on stock prices. it has been a constant since the top of the market in january 2022 that if yields go higher, stocks go lower. it does not always work took for ticket, though there are times that it does. you look at the last several days, the pressure on yields in the u.s. is coming from europe. we see a lot of hot inflation data out of europe, that has caused the pressure and fed into the selling. this is where stockpicking rules supreme. the longer you go sideways, the more companies and themes are going to differentiate themselves from each other. jess: i am glad you brought up stockpicking, somethin

it was upgraded to outperform at evercore, the firm says there's improving traffic trends the stock is not doing a whole lot, stephanie link, today on this call. you owned target how about this right now >> when i read this note, the same thing could be said for target they're seeing better top line momentum, gaining market share especially at the upper end. defensive for trade down inventories are improving. target shares 18 times forward walmart trades 24 times forward. i gravitate more towards target. there is a catalyst on the 5th of april for walmart they have an analyst day i think they'll have great long term moment with the analyst community, one of their catalysts for the share. >> do you think this call is trying to get ahead of that? >> i do. i don't think they will say anything that will be game changing but reinforcing things are very good at the company and such a stable company and it's a staple, too. >> walmart is at 23. we don't own any really hard core staples like that >> that's why i said target. by the way, it is a staple. >> i like mcdonald's but we are nearly 50%

stephen, thanks so much for your time today we appreciate it >> thanks. >> stephen kim with evercore isi. let's get a quick check of the markets. dow's up 117 points here as we cling on to the green we briefly looked like earlier we might go neither negative more toward the top of the hour. the s&p down slightly from those levels that does it for us but for more coverage you can sign up for my newsletter at one easy step at cnbc.com/newsletters or scan the qr code on your screen it was one of the regional banks in the green yesterday we'll talk to fed waceo brendan beardall tyler's getting he ready i'll join him on the other side of this quick break. and i wanted to hide from the world. for years, i thought my t.e.d. was beyond help... but then i asked my doctor about tepezza. (vo) tepezza is the only medicine that treats t.e.d. at the source not just the symptoms. in a clinical study more than 8 out of 10 patients taking tepezza had less eye bulging. tepezza is an infusion. patients taking tepezza may have infusion reactions. tell your doctor right away if you experience high blood

we'll start with the evercore call here. rating goes to outperform.ubles to nearly 60 bucks a a share. looking at the strategy shift from sneaker drops and more lifestyle type brands. similar story for analysts at citi, bullish on ceo mary dylan and her move away from malls, taking the stock to buy rating. goes up to 50 bucks a share. sara, what's the rough read-through here when it comes to nike because the citi analysts cites a renewed partnership with nike is the reason they made this upgrade? >> more beneficial for foot locker than nike. nike is still the number one brand and biggest supplier, number one client as well. it's strong. there's no evidence that nike brand momentum isn't as strong as ever. for earnings, the key question is going to be china and what is the rebound actually look like there? is it slower than expected? that's been huge growth and profitability story for nike. the other question is inventories, which were super bloated coming out of covid and with all the shipping delays and issues. it's been slow, mike, for that to work

evercore boosting. raising price target to $160 from $145.ni channel operation and non core assets. what is the take on the upgrade of walmart >> we looked at walmart over the years and continue to hold off over and over. it is expensive. we think the low-end consumer and if there is a recession, who gets hurt the most the lower-end consumer that's the main consumer we continue to hold off. i have not read that report yet. every time we look at walmart, we come away saying too expensive. not any actual growth. >> what do you make of the futures in the green i know you think things stay range bound, but tech continues to perform >> i think it is played out. you know, a lot of those stocks, apple, amazon, google, meta, individuals, up 30% to 80% this year there is an interesting i heard on cnbc yesterday which was those stocks on average are up 5% on the year -- i'm sorry. those stocks are responsible for a 5% gain in the s&p the s&p was up 3.5% yesterday. that implies it more than carries the weight i see valuations that are not that cheap i s

evercore has jft(outperform. jeffries raised. evercore, outperform. come on.ed meta yet. we got another meta upgrade and same quality about them,t(i] wh is that there is nowe1 a returno going to have a giant impact on the bottom line. this is from jay. i thought it was very solidly reasoned. i know, david, yesterday, you guys? >> well, they only went to outperform yesterday and obviously,u■ this is 65% move i the stock price this year, so, yeah, i did wonder that. >> better late than never? >> maybe. but you cited the fact that they saw revenu!i=]q!■ and now you're saying another analyst is also talking about revenue >> this time it's tpm. they might have gotten around the apple problems, and that wouldu■c be really great. i know, by [8ñway, if you want to know who is doing the best )h jensen huang from nvidia, i'm going tou■ tell you it's mark zuckerberg. >> ñrokay. >> tremendousko■e1w3 partnershi. >> evenw3 thoughu■ what? >> resulting in, if you go to metaverse, you can learn more. i mean, i know it's just xd enconceivable to many people that mark would be d

joining us now, the evercore chairman emeritus. are the perfect person to talk to on a day like today. thank you so much for making some time for us. you have seen a number of crises before. how do you rate this one. what is going on? ralph: last time i was on your show i said there was a huge amount of uncertainty, more than i have seen in 40 plus years of finance. it was not as scary as the financial crisis in 2008. nora covid. -- nor covid. i still feel that way. what we have seen here is warren buffett, that a very wise man, said once, when the tide goes out, we find out who is not wearing a swimming suit. and we found out already three folks that were not wearing swimming suits. over the weekend, the fed and the regulators showed up at the beach and started handing out swimming suits to everyone. i think once the world settles down, i think we will find that this is truly a stabilizing event for the vast majority of financial institutions, and certainly for the real economy. alix: so good to chat with you. based on that, can i

interestingly enough, i was speaking to julian emanuel at evercore isi saying what's the biggest event're watching in march? he says it's not the state council in china, it is the first republic earnings on april 15th that willdrive sentiment not just here but overseas. >> jpmorgan on the 14th still some discussion, i think it was citi last night, that said, look, tier 1 capital still better this cycle than it was in 2015 or 2008 because there have been so many hard lessons learned by the banks they would argue policymakers, too, seema. >> it's a great point. who learned what during the last financial crisis and who's better for it. >> seema mody on the banks it's going to be an eventful set of earnings in a couple of weeks. >>> let's get a news update with contessa brewer. >> good morning, carl. the new york police department says it's seen no credible threats to the city after the indictment of former president donald trump the nypd has had mobilization plans prepared since last week in anticipation of potential criminal charges being filed against the former president trump is due t

brothers >>> meantime, airlines, phil lebeau talking about the garland presser later on ual up, evercoret unit revenue and pretty muted q1 activity, at least price action in gasoline or jet fuel. we just talked about how the consumer appears to be holding on to things they want to spend on travel is one of them. >> the stocks have come in a fair bit i think that's a big part of the evercore delta call which is that it has lagged ual and american in this last little stretch of time. yet they all look cheap. it's another story, you don't buy cyclical stocks on low pes, except that the es are continuing >> also, the idea that one of your low cost challengers trying to get bigger might face challenges of making that happen. >> it doesn't seem as if that's an imminent threat in terms of overall pricing structure at this point for sure. >> we've been talking a lot about how much cash ev companies consumer that gets me to rivian this morning. stock down almost 8% on news that they did sell it was priced last night as convertible, $1.3 billion, also the ability to go up another $200 million i do

the stock got upgraded to outperform at evercore saying the company is positioned for traffic and rgmain upside. it's a winner today, up 0.75%. up almost 100 on the dow >>> just a few minutes left of trading overseas in europe with markets set to close higher there for the fourth straight day in a row retail leading the charge today. shares of h&m up huge after reporting a surprise profit this quarter. the story abroad we wanted to highlight is china three headlines that kind of tie together here. first we learned china and brazil have just made a new trade deal to ditch the u.s. dollar you've also got russia adopting the chinese currency as one of the main currencies for international reserve, trade agreement and bernl panking services then also this deal, the chinese national oil company completing its first lng trade with france's total energy using the chinese yuan all this alternative currency move from china in the face of deteriorating u.s. relations you hear the rising chorus of the dollar is losing its reserve status we've seen these moves and china is reasserting itself as a do

bring in one of the best technology experts on the street, evercore isi head of internet research, markeems every sci-fi movie we saw growing up had the same message but seem different coming from stephen hawking an different scientists? >> it is quite a big topic. i will try as a humble stock-picker i look at the product, productivity improvements that a.i. can bring just to the, that can make your search results more valuable. they can make advertising geared against you to be more targeted, more personalized. there is a lot of basic improvements. artificial intelligence can be taken some different ways. to the extent it helps processes, makes it easier, tasks are easier to run, you're on the side of the angles if of the angels, if you're investing in the artificial intelligence. there could be devils on the other side with respect to stephen hawking. charles: be fair, all the industrial revolutions carried the same burden with them. this is no different. is there some a.i. names you like more than others? >> well, the one thing about a.i. i think in order to really be successful, i f

you have five firms, bmo, cowan, evercore, wedbush, remain outperform overweights.ith this stock. >> tesla is a bellwether for the industry. in long run, i think it is going to be fine because it is not just mark's leadership. they built a platform that allows customers to actually expand reach whether going down industry route, coming down market to the smb side sales force is there. there isn't a lot of innovation as you would expect in the enterprise software space. there is only a few players in every single segment. sales force competes in almost everyone of segments instead of back office stuff, finance, accounting hr. charles: crm abbreviation, is the stock's ticker, back office initially. we have less than a minute. we have to talk about snowflake. this stock has got hammered recently. it used to be a juggernaut. here is what i like about it, earnings expectations have been ratcheting higher and higher. maybe there is a chance they can actually outperform. what are you looking for when they report? >> i think they will be fine as well. part of the thing the

continued uncertainty, continued concern over whether enough has been done to fix the financial system evercore writing banks will remain under pressure from less stable and more expensive deposits, attention will turn to other parts including insurers and bank interest rates swap counterparties carrying larger unrealized mark to market losses concern about the economic and financial falliot of sbv's demise showing up in a massive fall in the massive outlook for rate hikes funds rate now trading around 4% folks, last week it traded as high at 570 so 170 basis points of expects easing has now come into the market. here's what's been done just to underscore what tyler said the guaranteed deposits at sfsk including the uninsured deposits creating an implicit but not an explicit guarantee for other uninsured depositors at banks. they should down signature created a new fund at the fed to finance-banked assets and eased lending rules at the fed's emergency discount window. so there are two oppose impacts on the economy lower rates, including lower mortgage rates and higher haved bank collateral. cou

. >>> evercore isi this morning in their report this morning writes the fed can see what happens overse stabilizes we will likely get a 25 basis point hike from the fed but this is much less certain than before because if credit suisse is in distress on the eve of the meeting of the fed, that will for sure mean the fed pauses. what's your take next week on the meeting? >> i would say it really is going to come down to the number of u.s. banks that will be in distress. we don't think there are many that are in serious distress at all but it is credit suisse that is certainly something that they have to weigh on their decision and if credit swiss can start to stabilize based upon as you pointed out they took a lifeline from the swiss na national bank, the large amount of credit, the trading it up which is a good sign. if that stabilizes that will have a great influence on what they do decide next week. i would agree with you. maria: today is the one year mark from when the fed started raising interest rates, gerard. what kind of impact are you expecting later on the in the year? we're t

meantime, shares of delta after an upgrade from evercore, options traders booking it their tickets.ng? mike >> delta traded more than three times the average daily call volumes. calls outpacing puts three to one. the most active contract was the 40 1/2 strike call that expires the end of this week an average price of 17 cents buyers of those calls betting that stocks rally could continue we saw bullish in united airlines, spirit airlines and the etf that tracks them nentk you. tu io the full show friday, 5:30 eastern time. >>> up next, final trade real zero energy is coming... and yes, that means cutting carbon emissions... but it also means cutting costs. because now clean energy is more affordable energy. we've been investing in american infrastructure for thirty years... lowering electricity costs today, and protecting from volatile energy prices tomorrow. so walk with us— and let's make cutting energy costs real. so walk with us— girls... the chess club has gained an edge on our bake sales. we need more ways of connecting with customers, fast. i know some consultants with great

evercore more bullish saying excess pandemic savings and healthy household balance sheets opens up the potential for the 2023 upside case of 4600 even morgan stanley, a long-time bear lays out the case for the s&p 500 to rally to 4150 if the dollar and rates continue to fall adam parker from triberia not as positive, saying they have yet to sigh a convincing bull case markets in waiting mode. the jobs number on friday, cpi, ppi and the ecb meeting next week of course, we've got a fed decision coming march 22nd it's going to be an epic few weeks. to help break down what's next for the markets amid all of these event catalysts, cnbc market commentator mike santoli joins us on the floor. the question is -- we know powell will be more hawkish than the last press conference. we've gotten stronger data and all his light ents have been out there saying, higher for longer. can the equity market hold up. it's been doing a good job. >> it has been even if we have to raise our sights for how much the fed has to do, it's coming in relatively smaller increments than last year he'll sound hawkish re

consumption of goods will probably slow it's well above trend for the last three years >> evercore on today as we head towards the two-minute warning, about 20 seconds away from that mike santoli, we head towards the final trading day of what's been a pretty good quarter for stocks certainly megacap tech that's going to be one of the largest questions about the largest of stocks. >> for sure. i really do think that you can say there's no quarter effects going on i was looking at the best performing stocks. all but three are up today yes, people are rotating a little bit into the winters, you probably have to see how we handle things on monday to see if it was all that, but i think most of the things point to the market has stayed away from trouble through rotation as o' opposed to just kind of lick t liquidating. in the middle of last year, june 30th, you know, we were 12 or 15% higher in s&p earnings for this year. you still had four full percentage points of fed tightening ahead of you, and the s&p was a few percent lower. so i do think that just in general it's found a way so far t

coming up on today's show, evercore founder roger altman with his outlook for deals as another mergercro he scope of the doj. >> the ceo of baker hughes on a first on cnbc interview in houston as natural gas prices leak lower >> straight to our market pa

respective lows with no resurgence in covid following the lunar new year and rebound in manufacturing, evercoreegist says do not be in panic if a stimulus package is not unveiled. expectations are high. we're looking at the kweg china etf for first upside this has been a market-moving event. goldman sachs examined the china etf from 2011 to 2020 and found that one month after the national people's congress, the index tends to have positive gains. we'll see if history repeats itself. >> seema mody, thanks. >>> this year's national people's congress meeting set against a back drop of rising tensions between china and u.s what can we expect for china/u.s. relations ahead and how should investors navigate this volatility? joining us james mcgregor. great to have you with us. seema was mentioning stimulus. for investors here, the thought of stimulus would provide some more catalyst, more fuel to the bull case behind china i'm wondering if you think, you know, unveiling the gdp target will give us any insight as to how big a stimulus could be or how moderate it could be >> well, china's got a lot of

the highest comes from evercore which has $200 price target on the stock.was about 150 at 148 and clearly a lot of upside for the $200 mark. as the dollar has rallied and we're switching gears on fed chair's comments in the past couple of days and we've seen gold hit its lowest levels and gold, aluminum, nickel and silver all lower in the past week scott? >> all right kristina, thank you. beale we'll talk to you again in a little bit the 25% in the stock market, and dan nies on signs of rebounding deman there you see him joins us now. what is the evidence of the rebounding iphone demand >> in the check this week which we finished yesterday, they're showing no cuts to production and that's important because what we're really seeing through there is that demand looks strong out of china with a significant uptick especially with december and ast is close to $900. you put that in right now and they're tracking 3% to 5% where the street is. >> you use the word yourself modest in your characterization of the uptick that you've seen in demand in china, and i'm won

evercore reacting, saying the year of efficiency is becoming more efficient with a new lowered expensedance, meta is declaring that it can recover to growth to de minimis growth which will create a slingshot opportunity as revenue growth rovers. zuckerberg saying the company is focused on increasing developer productivity and also improvements to the company's processes. and zuckerberg, interestingly, used some new buzzwords. instead of talking so much about the metaverse, he wrote in his memo that meta is building the future of human connection, and trying to build new ways for people to feel closer using ai and melissa, it's also worth noting even with this elimination with now 21,000 jobs in the past six months, meta still has more employees than it did as recently as summer 2021 melissa? >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin a lot of buzzwords in that eps, slingshot opportunities. >> it's a great term. >> connection opportunities. and of course you got to throw in a little ai while you're at it >> absolutely. >> why not >> right one word notably absent, metaverse. >> right >> during

above 200,000 would be enough for that 50 and to raise the fed projection from 5.13 to 5.60 over at evercores we still lean 25 because we think the next batch of data will be sufficiently cooler and the fed will apply a reasonable standard for evaluating this evercore's comments emphasized what powell made clear the decision is not preset, it depends on the data. that depends on jobs on friday, inflation next week, retail sales. does powell need to walk back or soften what he said yesterday? i think given that most important part of the remarks were in the statement, i don't think he's got anything to walk back joe? >> we had a long discussion about all of this. i was looking forward to talking to you about it because you would know aren't there little dribs and drabs of inflation data that jay powell might know that the rest of us don't know, or not if he was more hawkish, and there are some people who said that he didn't say anything that new yesterday. but if he did say something new is because he knows stuff about what's coming or is it just sufficient with what he has already seen for t

. >> phil just messengered edmente jetblue and spirit moves evercore upgraded delta to outperform after lagging peers recent pilot contracts should help lower cost uncertainties. delta shares higher, 2% higher united, 3.5. american airlines, 1.6% higher those are in up sympathy chip names, semiconductors, they're trading on the nasdaq and all in the red with the exception of amd, up .8% right now. a new report from analyst room idc is more pessimistic about personal computer sales. they lowered the 2023 shipment forecast by 26 million this revision pretty much shows that end market conditions have only deteriorated further in early 2023 when everybody was talking about maybe an improvement for chips. that's a negative outlook and why you're seeing a lot of names with exposure like micron, marvel, and the list continues down today >> all right, kristina, thank you. kristina partsinevelos shares of meta well off the highs of the day after climbing on reports that more layoffs are on the way the job cuts will reportedly affect thousands of employees adding to the 13% cut meta made in novem

. >>> plus, we will talk about regulators' efforts to contain the contagion with evercore's roger altman box" will be right back. at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold, new thinking, ♪ to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. ♪ >>> breaking news this morning, regulators sweep in to contain a financial crisis depo depositors of silicon valley and signature bank are protected the futures are on the move. we have all the market action for you. >>> a pause for the fed, did the svb collapse put the central bank on hold for march the implications for the fed's next decision. >>> plus, the ripple effects for venture capital. we're going to dig into what it means for companies with exposure to theba banks and ther customers. this special edition of "squawk box" continues right now >>> good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box. we're right hear live from the nasdaq marketplace in times sq square i'm becky quick, andrew will be joining us shortly joe is off today you're going to sea rige things turned back into the green for the dow

. >>> evercore vice chair is with us, the bond bull saying the top of the two-year yield may still be

i did see evercore today basically saying, look at excess savings, still pretty monstrous.ousehold balance sheet, debt as a percentage of gdp, very healthy. it does, they say, open up the full-year upside case of 4,600, but no, not 4,800. >> yeah, i mean, you do have some folks out there thinking that you could do it but let's say we get there by the end of the year. it would be like a round trip in two years, which is not bad, if that was the worst the bear had to offer but the resiliency of the economy. the question is, does it become bad news at some point that's what everybody's on edge about. that's why we're worried about a hot jobs number on friday. >> mike can't help coming baa to the obvious, which is for the first time, we're looking at charts since '07 and '08, there are alternatives >> yes >> there's a "journal" story today, any number of the investment banks have their acronyms there are reasonable alternatives, says goldman-sachs. deutsche bank, "there are plenty of alternatives. and there's another one called, "there is a realistic alternative. we see it in t

is getting help from evercore who upgraded that to the out perform. target price at 160.stomer traffic and profit margins 1.5% gains for walmart we end on shares of charles schwab down 1% the discount giant and bank holding company is getting downgraded by morgan stanley they cited less visibility for customer deposit outflows and increasing regulatory landscape which could be a drag. charles schwab shares down 1%. becky, back to you. >> dom, thank you. charles schwab with a rough few weeks. thanks, dom. >>> let's talk more with meghan horneman at capital vadvisors how did you view the last couple weeks? i'm referencing the flux in the banking sector is it positive because the fed, at least, has that on its radar and maybe is not quite as hawkish or does it portend a deeper landing what does it mean for stocks >> i would not say it is a positive it put the fed in a more difficult position now they have to weigh the fact we still are above the inflation target that they want. they have to balance that with keeping stability in the banking sector short term, the banking stu

luther slammed to the door >> meta backing off nfts the glowing sell-side calls yesterday, i think evercorelingshot opportunity. >> moft nathanson raised the money they're going to save. even if the revenues stay flat, there's an explosion >> some believe with tiktok on the ropes, maybe revenues don't stay flat. maybe they sell. >> i understand that instagram is doing very well by the way, i was speaking with someone in commercial real estate who said the possibility that they'll just pull out of europe is not -- is possible but they'd have to pay a lot >> well, they have the space, and they're leasing it for years, so you can take -- >> you have to pay out you have to pay. >> really? you sure >> they're saying, you got to come in or else. >> you got to come into the office why would you think that >> i think you can consolidate you don't need all those offices. i think you buy meta >> i don't know the specifics of their real estate contracts. i do know that they've leased a lot of office space, and it's not always easy to get out of that >> well, you can pay to get out of those deals, but

tom: this crisis, if we get the evercore isi view on disinflation, if we ever get a inflation factor, that we talked about this morning? jonathan: we've barely discussed the data this morning. it is retail sales on wednesday. last week ethically started the conversations about 50 in chairman powell talked about increasing the pace or maybe opening the door to where i sat here repeatedly. it is so much more than that, lisa. lisa: it is suddenly becoming -- again. tom: 35-year chart. the large slope of fed action is unprecedented. how quickly they moved. jonathan: this is bloomberg. g and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. every day, millions of things need to get to where they're going. and at chevron, we're working to help reduce the carbon intensity of the fuels that keep things moving. today, we're producing renewable diesel that can be used in existing diesel tanks. and we're committed to increasing our renewable fuels prod

evercore isi's krishna guha says we think the fed chair will open the door to a calibrated upward move will not turn max hawkish or fuel speculation of a 50 basis point movem the problem for powell, the amount of data that comes this week and next, jolts today, jobs on friday, cpi on tuesday, retail sales ppi coming next wednesday. the best the fed chair can do, give markets an idea how the fed will react under different scenarios. unfortunately, most of those scenarios suggest higher rates a month's worth of data will not be enough to give the fed confidence that inflation is moving towards target. joe, this is like one of those guys in a wrestling match. you've got him pinned, you go, one, two, the guy goes up and you've got to start counting again. that's where we are right now. >> that's a good metaphor. what's wrong with the ten-year steve? >> what do you mean what's wrong with it? >> below 4% again. it's not cooperating >> well, joe, we talked about this this is a period where with the fed coming off the balance sheet or reducing the spbalance sheet, there's just going to be a lo