that's part of what evercore is concerned about.o the discussion by the company that there does seem to be some more disconcerting spending with shoppers that are still shopping on its site. so, that's obviously a concern going forward when you're always hoping for growth. if you're not adding the customers you want to add but the ones you are -- that you have are spending a little bit less. >> everything is so sector specific in retail right now, category specific. and i always thought pets were sort of stablish. like you can never cut back. you can buy them less -- i guess, fewer toys but you still have to buy the same amount of food and medication and treats. where does it fit in with what we're learning about the consumer? >> it's so wild what's going on with the consumer. like you pointed out. certain sectors may be seemingly doing better than others. then again, even within the sectors there's some nuances there. i think when it comes to this company in particular with pets, what they're calling out is some of their customers

let's ask evercore's roger altman thanks for being here, roger >> scott, how are you? >> i'm good. harker we've done enough. do you think they have >> i think tomorrow's message from chair powell in jackson hole is going to be relatively low key and pragmatic. it's not going to be hawkish in the following sense. i think he's going to say that we've made good progress on inflation, but we have to watch and see if that continues. and he's going to observe, i would expect, that they have to be particularly vigilant because there is stronger underlying growth than most expected and that the fed expected, and that's the basis for being very watchful i don't think his message is going to be one which commits the fed one way or the other on the upcoming september meeting it gives them the flexibility to raise again, including then. if the interim data makes the case for that but doesn't commit him. so a pragmatic, relatively low key, low drama message >> do you think in your gut that september's a live meeting, roger, or do you think we have a pause and then we'll put november on the tabl

sonali: there is another man with a higher bar, an analyst at evercore isi and has an outperform ratingt with a price target of $175 per share. when you look at the troubles you see at walmart today, the market is not loving this outlook on the u.s. consumer. what is the biggest downside risk to walmart when you think about what they have said about how weak the consumer could get heading into the next part of this year into next year? >> today, the stock is down because the expectations were high. we thought walmart was doing well and they would end up beating and raising for the full year and they did that but clearly, people were position for a nice beat into today's print. fundamentally for walmart, we think the key here is that they have growing traffic again. we upgraded in march and our top five portfolio. we think the traffic turn is real and has sustainable legs and will help them gain share and grow margin again which they haven't done successfully for many years. jon: a lot of people understand that the way this business works and the scale helps to keep prices low but gettin

they are waiting for measures to be announced like the relaxation of housing curbs evercore is abuyerback and expect opportunity to present itself in october they are sticking to the sidelines. those comments coincide with bank of america and merrill lynch which show funds on wall street are underweight with china and brazil and overweight on mexico. morgan stanley downgrading china, but upgrading india across the country with the prospects. dom, wall street is not buying into the rebound yet, but a lot of investors say the fall could bring on opportunities with real stimulus announcements that would be moving. >> have we started to see, seema, any signs that investors getting in with regard to their wallets? do we see fund flows move a little bit more forcefully to the emerging markets with etfs >> fund flow data showing more moves into the emerging markets. it shows some investors are selective. even the chinese stocks are up, but we have seen outflows in the last couple weeks. india inflows are moving as well as the jobs report, dom, with the global implications. that can weigh on

earlier we caught up with evercore's ralph schloss time to get his take on the ai effect. >> the interesting thing about ai is that, unlike the internet where you have these incredibly powerful companies that were created, the magnificent seven, i think the impact of ai is going to be more broadly distributed in already existing companies. so it will affect every business, just like the internet did, but it is not clear to me that other than the chip part that they are going to -- there are going to be massive earth changing companies created as a result of ai. matt: for more, let's bring in the founder and chief investment officer at spear invest. ivana, thank you for joining us. give me first your take on what ralph was saying area i think ai, a lot of people are expecting will be the democratization of the market and help to lift a lot more stocks than just nvidia, though that has been the chief that a fishy area this year. ivana: thanks for having me, matt. i do agree the impact of ai is going to be much more broad than that of the internet and i do agree existing companies will benefit.

let's bring in the evercore analyst. you got an outperform call.hat were the main takeaways from that earnings print? >> thanks for having me. there were some positives but clearly there are some negatives. part of the reason why the shares may be trading off is that there was some run-up into the expectations of modest corrections in addition to just a lower than expected die on fundamentals. in terms of the take away on the earnings call, there is the fact that buyers came in at an all-time high, the second quarter of year-over-year growth and the habitual buyer which is 45% of their gms started showing signs of stabilization. that's a key metric. the third is gms productive buyer which is more of a purchase frequency proxy and showed signs of stabilization and that is also a great contract in terms of looking at improvement. etsy is a highly to gratian every company and they are starting to see pressure on the consumer wallet. they did say that households that make less than $100,000 in income are seeing a shift and spend away from discretionary

more expensive let's turn to amazon we can actually expand the conversation to mark ma haney of evercore isi can handicap for us, mark what we're looking for within amazon. this is a stock that was really sitting out a lot of the rally until this year. had a big catch-up move, but still not quite all the way back. >> i think you set it up, mike maybe even been charitable amazon is a stock, it has been a dog the last two years it started to turn and three things that matter tonight, are we going to see this recovery in north american retail margins? that's a probability are we going to see signs of an acceleration in north american retail sales growth? this is a big data point on the u.s. consumer. i'm not sure i think it is possible we will but i don't think amazon's retail business is gangbusters yet. but possibility we'll see green chutes there and then what really matters to the stock tonight is this aws business, which has gone in free fall mode from 30% plus growth to 10%, to 11% that's in the past the question is, will they acknowledge or will they guide to acceleration for the bac

of analysts on wall street right now raising their price targets on the software name including evercore. analysts over there upfwrading okta to inline from underperform saying the business seems to be stabilizing, and its risk reward is more balanced at current levels. palantir shares are lower after morgan stanley actually downgraded the stock to underweight with a price target, upgrade, though to $9 a share. analysts are saying fundamentals are pretty much mismatched with the enthusiasm over artificial intelligence, especially since they expect delays with how quickly palantir's ai platform will contribute to revenue. in other words, cashing in on ai isn't as easy as promised. shares down over 8%. >> not for everybody, kristina, thanks. >>> we're just getting started here. up next, countdown to broadcom. we've got top chip analyst, stacy rasgon back with us. we are live from the new york stock exchange, and you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. people are excited about what ai will do for them. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities. introducing watsonx a

. >> let's get reaction from greg malick, retail analyst at evercore isi he has outperform on walmart there $175 price target. when you look at the quarter there's a lot to like if you are bullish on the stock, but the stock is lower in the session, if modestly so is this a sale on news that expectations were so high going into the quarter >> i think you nailed it target is losing some share and walmart has been gaining some share. i think people were positioned into the support, you know, very much in that direction this is a little bit of an unwind for both stocks frankly yesterday and today. i would say for walmart what we were really impressed which was that consistent and slightly accelerating traffic growth, and as they get those new customers and they come more frequently that's how they can reinforce them to me that was the real underpinning positive out of the walmart print today. >> greg, it just seems to me that to that point grocery is just really what is going to make the difference here in many cases, to get that guest traffic frequenting the store more and then hoping t

mizuho, pay dirt, wolf research, one for the ages evercore, primed for acceleration my personal favoritehat about sums it up in one, wall street is very bullish. but as warren buffett once said, be fearful when others are greedy i will highlight one metric that could be seen as potentially bearish. that is online stores revenue. that missed expectations by more than $4 billion, and it grew 5%, yes, that is coming off an obviously gigantic base, but just positing here, could it be a signal that amazon's dominance in e-commerce, perhaps getting chipped away at by the likes of temu and others that are pushing very aggressively into the u.s. e-commerce market. >> dee, one thing we talked about earlier this morning was having lived through the pain of the cost cuts, now getting reflected in better than expected margins, right? >> absolutely. this is the story here amazon spent so much, more than any of the other megacaps, during the pandemic to essentially double its logistics footprint. it's reaping the rewards, i.e., the efficiencies the market's favorite word, carl >> amazon's going to end

beijing relies on so-called precision-guided monetary tools that focus on targeted, credit easing and evercore clients over the weekend that if china's economic backdrop worsens and the s&p 500 companies more than 20% revenue in china could be at risk of seeing investors scale back their exposure and they're going to intel, tesla, advanced microdevices and western digital among others. most of these stocks are housed in cnbc's china trade index which you can see has underperformed this year compared to the s&p 500's 14% rise, and fund flows data shows that market participants continue to diversify their holdings with china bringing in less than a billion dollars while indian related etfs have seen 1.8 billion which also tells you a story, kelly. >> i think that's fascinating what shawn said it is one of the keys and they want the multinationals to invest first and the multinationals are waiting for bigger numbers before they make these investments and it's a waiting game. >> yeah. we're talking about ten to 15 years of investment and it's not an easy market to pull out of. at the same time the

wall street, though, remains more conscious evercore isi strategists telling cnbc they're waiting forullback, and they expect that opportunity to present itself in october, right around the time concrete announcements on stimulus are expected to be revealed those comments coinciding with new data, which shows fund managers remain extremely selective on where they're putting money to work across the world, underweight china and becoming less bearish on brazil, which, by the way, just kicked off its easing cycle this week with a dovish 50-bad-point rate cut and more expected in the coming months. >> seema, thanks seema mody steve, you have been getting more bullish on two china stocks in particular. >> yes baba and baidu, particularly baba i've been on record as i've been reminded by -- indirectly by many, many trolls, because i'm not on twitter anymore, that i have said i'd never buy chinese stocks, et cetera, et cetera, and actually made quite a bit of money shorting baba from $250 to roughly $150 but never has a price when you're an investor and it pays not to be married to all your

evercore taking the price target from 150 to 190. tom: amazon with the pandemic and second-guessing about there is a national crisis, we delivered the boxes, we need to died in and to what we need to do. they did. baeza went to run the washington post and the new guy came in. the new guy is the first real glimpse of post-covid amazon. jonathan: evercore calling this quarter and unlock for the stock. as of the stock needed it given the double-digit gains we have had so far. lisa: that is the reason why it is bolstering the overall index returns even though apple is more soggy and losing is $3 trillion moniker i'm looking at them cut 27,000 people as well as increase some of the revenue and this is what i think is getting people excited. tom: i agree with that. and it is not just covid. while i was ill i spent time reading about the cloud and a lot of this amazon and google and microsoft is the cloud boom and you saw with amazon numbers yesterday. jonathan: you did not see it with microsoft. there were worries about the forecasts and h

home builder stocks down for the past three weeks joining us with more is steven kim, evercore analyst interesting we were looking at the existing home data yesterday steven where you had supply ticking up, days on market ticking up and now toll with the average order price miss are we seeing inflection in the trends >> you're not. certainly not the trends that would reflect what had been going on through july. i think diana put her finger on it you have mixed issues that are going on in an environment where rates have been elevated, the builders are doing what you would expect them to do, adjust what they build to make sure they're achieving affordability. in the case of toll brothers you have geographic mix that the ceo did a good job explaining 30 minutes ago on the conference call the bottom line, the forecast for the relevant metrics for revenues or closings or orders or gross margins they're all going higher estimates higher for toll, that's why the stock is up, this is consistent for what we've seen with all the builders the last few months. you know what's interesting going for

there's a note out from evercore this morning, basically talking about this move that we've seen in yieldsand pointing to what it calls catalyzed selloff in both september, october of 2022 and the idea that stocks had to digest what we've seen happen here in february, march of 2023, just as we were getting all the svb and bank collapse drama and that even the fact that we are moving into a very seasonably, at least when september is concerned, weak time of the year, that you could potentially start to see a little bit of that pullback that we've been talking about and a number of strategists have come on and said we might be due for at these levels anyway so it's going to be one to watch. >> without a doubt yields above 4% have not been easily digested. it's not as if it needs anything in particular in terms of how far down stocks would have to go the fact that it's been a very muddled storyline behind the selloff in longer term bonds doesn't necessarily help yeah, we got the fitch downgrade, but global yields are going up, and they weren't telling us anything we didn't know, but did it fo

be getting a lot of attention over the the next couple of weeks for earnings reports analysts at evercorep one-half of 1% they had looked for a beat in raise quarter for america's biggest traditional retailer at the same time, tactical underperform for b.j.'s wholesale saying there's a near-term downside catalyst given disinflationary headwinds on the retail front, walmart is this week. b.j.'s will report next weekment big retail numbers, consumer looks. >> dom, thank you very much. >> when's the last time we had a back to back -- with did glover win a playoff or something >> yeah, he won a playoff. it was pretty dramatic listen, two wins in a row is tough to do anything on the pga tour to do it into the fedex playoffs is pretty impressive i think >> you know where he plays, right? sea island guy, frederica guy, l lucas glover. >> i've only been there once, and it was less than 24 hours on the ground. >> you follow me on twitter? >> i do follow you on twitter. >> i wasn't going to tweet at all. i had to i ran into brian harman. >> this is the season of sea island's affiliated golfers, i t

from evercore, the reaction to nvidia earnings last week at a to the wall of worries and surging interest rates and u.s. retail is a caution. is the pullback more than a seasonal setback? the chief equity strategist at federated joins us now. is the pullback more than a setback? >> julian is a smart guy. we have been looking for let's call it a 10% correction in stocks over the course of the august, september, october per whichiod -- which would be seasonal. the first seven months of the year, the tech stocks have dramatically outperformed the rest of the market and we felt there would be a reversion of the mean during this third quarter. 10 or 12% is a reasonable place to start so let's see with the valuation looks like once we get there. tom: i'm at the kitchen counter on labor day i'm trying to reallocate the portfolio. in my real -- reallocating with enthusiasm looking out three years or can i not have a three year view because of the jumble of the news flow right now? >> if you've got a three year time horizon, we are extraordinarily bullish. our near-term call is somewhat defensive.

that's not convincing, though, strategists at evercore isi who over the weekend warned clients that astheir holdings. they point to names like intel and tesla. street now awaiting results from nvidia, which like many semiconductor companies does business in china and that upcoming brick summit later this week in johannesburg where president xi is set to attend and the economy will no doubt come up in conversation. >> seema, appreciate that. joseph. >>> still to come, the council of economic advisers chair jared bernstein on the fed and a lot more. the future this is morning as you can see are in the green, but triple digit on the dow. 'lseif iwel e t lasts. "squawk box" will be right back. s the us, you'll find pnc bank. helping businesses both large and small, communities and the people who live and work there grow and thrive. we're proud to call these places home too. they're where we put down roots, and where together, we work to help move everyone's financial goals forward. pnc bank. >>> in washington news, a recent poll shows only 36% of americans approve of president biden's hand

. >>> evercore isi out with a new report on key takeaways from the second quarter earnings season, including large cap names, uber, amazon, meta, and spotify and pinterest tops the small and midcap picks, followed by website builder wix.com and magnite. >> magnite >> joining us with more is mark ma haney, head of internet research >> my new favorite person. >> i'm not going to go there how many kids? >> i have ten children >> that's so awesome isn't it don't get any -- >> i'm truly speechless. i'm speechless i am >> i wish -- honestly, i love it it is so great anyway, we're talking about stocks what do you think of what you just heard you agree? >> i hope so, yes. just wrote that. so, look, we just have gone through earnings season. multiples have come up a lot this year. we started this year with a big rally in megatech for good reasons because the stocks got so beaten down last year and the estimates got so beaten down we had some raeally great setups setups are more difficult now. fundamentals still haven't recovered. if you think about the three biggest parts of internet revenue, retail,

jonathan: chief equity strategist at evercore, a big event for this market.e people arguing perhaps bigger than what you may or may not hear from chairman powell later this week. into the market, where equities are positive on the s&p 500. 0.4%, so much attention in the bond market for good reason. yields lower by three basis points. a new cycle high. 4.35 on the u.s. 10 year. we thought we had left the highs behind in october. lisa: this comes despite concerns that the fed is going to have to be more aggressive to curtail gdp that is re-exhilarating. people looking out to the longer term and sing this is a new regime. a structural shift to higher inflation, higher term premium for u.s. debt. jonathan: here's a quote from the former fed presidents latest column. i suspect that the bull market is over. the study economic expansion, to follow the 2008 financial crisis. the paradigm has shifted. how yields are back. the view this morning, we will talk about it more in the program later. nibbling a little into yield and duration. we are in a regime shift. are the

that is the tone we are hearing, certainly from julian emanuel albert at evercore.mployment claims, as well as productivity numbers. it did not really move the dial, other a lot of people will be scrutinizing this for tea leaves as to what we get for the jobs figure we get tomorrow. s&p futures lower by .3 percent. i'm still watching very much ten-year yields. 4.1 4%, up now seven basis points as people parse through the supply-demand dynamics and some of this better-than-expected data. we have also been getting a series of earnings. i want to run through some of the themes we have been hearing through the lenses of some of these companies, although the stock moves are more reflective of what the companies have done your today right now we see tripadvisor shares lower by 1.7%. mgm resorts lowered by 6.6%. both of them beat across the board. this to me is important to highlight. they showed increased revenues, increased profits relative to expectations, and yet they are being punished based on their performance, although trip highs are is down on the year. mgm perhap