evercore says don't worry about near-term debt. mark ma haney joins us. >>> how economic weakness in china is impacting the u.s. treasury market. that's coming up next. o. uawk on the street" back in tw all right. 60 seconds to draw the perfect gift. what's it gonna be? a bottle of don julio, 1942, delivered. delivered with drizly. gifting without the guessing. drizly. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, giving traders even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade brilliantly with schwab. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >>> bullish note from the desk of evercore calling netflix an unchallenged leader in streaming with survey results from the firm's 1300-person survey showing 61% household penetration this quarter and a lead that's widening for netflix

why would you invest in evercore?e are buying, we are looking for companies with solid growth and reasonable valuation. a proven profitability metric. pe and those things and strong balance sheets. think about everquote and we are looking at an opportunity in tech. this is the way to play the auto insurance carrier. 80% of everquote revenue comes from auto insurance. online marketplace. we expect the auto insurance to recover next year. so, these auto carriers are acquisak which acquisition. >> your other pick is visio. theses are connected? >> they offer tv experiences at a decent price. they're shares traded lower this year because of that challenging tv market. they are expected to have ad growth which is expected to continue 20%. >> i own a few in my day. a lot of people are cutting the cord. tiffany, have a great friday. >> thank you. >>> one more thing before we let you go to "squawk box." we are in the green. the dow off the highs from earlier this morning. we have to leave it there. the dow up 130 points. as a

we have companies out there like evercore, lazard. they do so well when we have bankruptcies and restructurings and forced m&a. those banks haven't been able to keep up in terms of stock price. they could surprise up. certainly they will. we will see the impact, it's been talked about too much, but all of the injectable weight loss drugs, we cannot underestimate how powerful that is going to impact the earnings on companies like synovial, diabetes, novo nordisk, nbo. shery ahn: that will be interesting. so far, they've been resilient and optimistic that retailers wouldn't get hurt. hilary: i think they will get hurt. it is beyond anything anyone realizes, the extent to which america is hooked on taking all these. there's a lot of generic versions of those injectables. shery ahn: going into the holidays, american consumers -- what do you think the trend will be when we get january and we look back at retail sales numbers of how these companies did? we are talking about the potential failure of more companies, eventually that will filte

i spoke to the evercore ceo john weinberg. his family ran goldman., we have come in at number four in terms of revenue on merger advice for the last couple years. the last quarter they came in number three. can you imagine? they beat morgan stanley in the most recent quarter on the fees taken in by merger. you have boutiques fighting hard, hiring hard, paying top dollar for talent. now after a record year of hiring for evercore they are hiring more. so, remember, they hired a record amount of senior managing directors in a year where deal volumes were the worst since 2013, in a decade. if you thought this was a tough market for wall street, yes, it was. there was still significant types of hiring. next year is certainly pointing to the chance for hiring to come back again. paul: if i am in mna banker and i don't want to worry about my bonus impacted by some knucklehead losing money trading the yen in singapore. these boutiques it is eat what you kill and focused on mna exclusively. for a lot of bankers that makes a lot of sense and we are seeing that

evercore, the switching from what can go wrong to nothing can go wrong to the goldman note, the cautionary sign is there isn't any. how do you make sense of that in the here and now? >> clearly technicals, we saw that blitz the other day when the market sold ff. the rsi is still incredibly overbought right now. i think we're going to continue to grind higher because trading is light, and i agree with jim, the trend is your friend in the last week. january will be a continuation but we will have a flushing out. it's not a healthy market to continue to go up day after day. algorithmic traders can come in. i think it's an important point. mouch of the move whether it's small tech or biotech -- >> a lot. >> exactly. and so that's where my feeling is those companies have a higher benchmark because there's been such a whoosh because rates have come down on the long end. i think the proof will be in the putting whether or not those names will have this kind of showing they've had in the last six weeks. >> some of the numbers, jim, are downride crazy, you do a double take when you see the russell

evercore upgrading hp and raising price target to $40.mments under score a belief of the pc market is making a comeback next year. >>> rbc is upgrading pinterest and raising target price to $46. the analyst believes pinterest is an a tttractive story showin key product cycles which are starting to work. it is hedged to play amazon. >>> and jeffries upgrading best buy to buy. there is a bullish trend for hardware replacement cycles. >>> time for "global briefing." cigna healthcare acquiring sigma health care. it makes sigma one of the biggest on the australian index. >>> and nvidia will support training for a.i. and digital infrastructure teams. this marks the latest investment into the vietnam for nvidia. it is providing $250 million in cloud, auto and healthcare. the comments coming during the ceo's first trip to vietnam. >>> and biytedance is resuming the tiktok operations in southeast operation after the authorities banned online shopping on social media platforms. tiktok will take a controlling stake with the deal expecting to close i

here's evercore isi quote on the markets this morning about how everybody is rethinking the narrative wrong to making a statement, nothing can go wrong. eps disappoi, geopolitics, high inflation, slowing economy. all forgotten. which gives you a little sampling of the risks there. they took a look back at the period between the last hike and the first cut, which is what everybody is always looking at and say there's a defensive stocks rule the day. communication services, utilities and health care, typically the best performing groups during that time period. that's what everyone is trying to game out, that and david, how long that gap will be between last hike, first cut, from the fed. >> and typically it is how long? >> well, there's nothing typical about this situation, right, but the market now is pricing in odds that it will happen as soon as march. the market is now pricing in about 150 basis points cuts coming up. so it's faster than the fed itself is talking about, and we continue to have like mini walk backs i would say of the extreme dovish reaction. >> talked about it on fr

mark mahaney of evercore telling us in the last hour that this is a sign that its business model is working and going forward, you could see the company do its first share buyback. >>> a sportswear swap from wells fargo grabbing our attention this morning. the bank taking their chips off the table for lululemon, downgrading it to equal weight. lulu coming off their top picks list as the firm replaces it with nike as their top defensive play. the analyst behind that call joining us now. wells fargo's ike. thank you for being here, ike. why nike? why nike over lulu? what's the impetus behind this decision? >> yeah, i'd say the impetus is looking at how this discretionary space wants to behave right now. if you look at the space, the direction is pretty clear. laggard names with easy productivity, margin and/or valuations that are depressed with earnings growth visibility that's much higher with multiples that can expand. look at the last two weeks of earnings. look at names like burlington, bath and body works, victoria's secret. these are the names that wants to work. nike checks those boxes

. >> there was a good stat from evercore isi showing the s&p hasn't declined during a re-election yearince 1952 and averaged a 12% gain in those years. you think next year, then, given kind of the dynamics you just laid out, kind of won't necessarily match that historical fervor? >> well, the way i look at it is we still have downside risk in the economy. again, what the market's doing here has more to do with bond yields than it has to do with macro getting better or earnings getting better, and so what we have today is the fed -- the market thinks the fed is done. every single time that's happened in history, the market follows through with some sort of rally. it could be as short as a couple months or it could be indefinite, and all that depends on is jobs data. so, as long as the employment backdrop, and as long as unemployment claims don't go to, let's say, 275,000 or higher, i don't think we're going to see any kind of sustained correction in the market from here. that means -- >> on a related note, i didn't see a note from one of your peers on the street that said, they don't th

joining us now, the person behind this forecast, julian emanuel from evercore isi. good to see you. you look at the absolute numbers and it doesn't seem like there's much movement, but you're saying there's going to be a lot of movement within the year. >> yeah. so, we were treated to a very nonvolatile year this year, as much as people want to think, you know, we did have a banking crisis for a couple days back in march. we had a peak when the fed made what we think it was the last hike in the cycle. and if you drop back and you go back to the last time sentiment was this low in terms of numbers of bears, it was early 2018 and if you think of all the roller coasters that we've been on since then, the one thing as an investor that you can't do is let your emotions go and sell low and buy high. and the way we look at the market right now is that there's going to be enough event risk over the next 12 months, and there's enough tightening in the pipeline so that there will be that temptation to sell low and buy high and we don't want to do that, and we want to message the fact that it'

today evercore, b of a, kkr and morgan stanley. >> and stanley.is performance has only exceeded by his hue m. i mean, this is a person that came from very humble gatherings and real humble. like humble when you're at wall street means you have only three houses. this guy is for real. >> and not one to be overly self-reflective. i hope we'll get him a little bit more today, carl, because these exit interviews are a little bit different. we won't be focused as much on all the parts of the balance sheets. >> although a favorite exit interview is an exit forever as we now know. >> that's a good point. that's a good point. >> let's get to the markets and talk about yesterday's selloff. as we mentioned, worst day for the s&p since september. every dow name down, first time that's happened since march, jim. goldman today says hard to explain. >> well, yeah, zero day options, they can put pressure. they have been taking over the market. about 40% of all the s&p option volume is the one-day thing, and it can put a lot of pressure on the market. you sell a

evercore isi is out with their top list of calls for 2024.ica and kkr. they believe there is still more runway ahead for longer term growth stories tied to wealth management and private markets. that's good for names like morgan stanley and kkr. they also see a bottoming out for net interest income trends over the next year. which favors a name like bank of america, which has the ability to more capitalize on the so-called nii trends, more conservative credit exposure, better valuation at current levels. so morgan stanley up fractionally, kkr thinly traded, not moving very much right now. bank of america up 1%, andrew. i'll send things back over to you. >> dom chu with the must watch list this morning. thank you. >>> when we come back, the advertisers x factor for not marketing on elon musk's social media platform. the new data from our cnbc all america survey. reaction from musk biographer walter isaacson as we head to a break. check out shares of boeing. last night, trade publication the air current reported the company has won a key cleara

lisa: julian emmanuelle of evercore, thank you.g a lift to beyond the year end target julian has, 4785, .25%. how much do you think there is enough fear that could get brought in from any weakness for a drawdown given there is so much cash that will be pushed out of money market funds as yields go in? julian: it will cushion the blow, but again, going back to this idea, yes, we have more or less been promised three rate cuts, but if inflation has -- does not continue that marked downward path, you are still going to have cash yields north of 4%, 4.5%, and within the context of the last 15 years, that is quite attractive. lisa: this is one of the key questions, this idea of being pushed out of cash. suddenly it is not 5% anymore. damian: what is interesting is seasonal. no one wants to talk about seasonals until it has happened. from november to now, it's like a playbook. just by in november and go up in january into february and sell. katie: are we going to talk about the santa claus rally? lisa: we are not. katie: ok. lisa: go for

we're so going to watch shes of amazon, evercore, isi calling it one otheiring to megastore pis.iness mix there, you can see some movemento the downside fractionally given this idea that the-commerce side of things and the online advertising side of thing s is going to make up a better share we'll end up at shopify, it's down by roughly 1.8% premarket, just around 15,000 shares of volume. analysts at p securities to market perform from a prior it's more of a valuation call. the stock isearing their $80 ice. it tilts toward mo enterprise customer growth, it's going to lead to lower profit margins overall. opify shares down about 1.8% in the premarket trade so far right now. i just got to say it was a great week of -- the game i really want to talk about is not the one i necessarily watched closely, but it's the bills complete and utter dominance of the cowboys. >> i know. after the eagles game, which i'm teing you, they're like jekyll and hyde. >> jekyll and hyde, that's exactly what i thought, joe. >> it's like who are you? i mean, it's very trange. but i've seen it with other te