joe: ed hyman, chairman of evercore isi. enjoying this conversation so much, we will be talking and looking at some charts. this is bloomberg. ♪ joe: dennis lockhart says he is upbeat about the u.s. economy maintaining a modest pace of growth in the vicinity of 2%. he is cautioning the failure to pass and obama repeal is a warning sign for the administration. friday's outcome of non-vote, thee health care situation, it suggests may be reality is that things will take a little bit more time. and they will be a little bit more difficult to get to the fiscal impact that was assumed in the search of optimism just after the election. he spoke at the credit suisse asian investment conference in hong kong. and we are back with that hyman, the founder and chairman of evercore isi. is there still room in the cycle for fiscal policy? is that what is helpful at this point in the cycle? >> it doesn't make a difference. it will either happen or it won't happen. as i mentioned on a city by city basis, the u.s. economy is doing fine. there

evercore isi published a note saying cat's numbers might be too low.f that is the case i bet the stock takes off and breaks through the hundred dollar level regardless what the irs does the to them. the truth is they are cyclical. when economies around the world get stronger cat sales and earns tend to start rocketing higher right about now. and history says you don't want to bet against cat when its business is improving because you don't want to get run over. another fly in the ointment. last year reported cat's ceo would resign earlier than planned. which he did at the end of the year. lot of reasons he might have done this. sales might have got kushd --. right at the moment when the market peeked but i never got the timing. cat's business is finally turning around and to me i think he deserved the cross overto jordan to see the promised land. who knows. cat hasn't exactly been an open book on the matter. i can understand how the combination of accounting issues and early retirement for the ceo might make people feel nervous about the stock but i sa

joining us now to discuss it, terry haines, evercore's isi political analyst.nd joining us ceo of labenthal holdings. welcome back. >> thank you. >> let's start with the narrative in the markets that the first test of the trump agenda doesn't bode too well for the next pro growth policies like tax reform and infrastructure. is that right? how are you telling your clients to trade it? >> well, what we're telling clients is the story is still to be written. i think this is a stumble and not something that's irreversible politically. but congress and trump have about four to six weeks to execute this pivot to tax reform and actually make it go. they can still be on schedule for at earliest in august tax reform date or the latest by the end of 2017. but they're going to have to get moving pretty quickly. and we will see that start to play out over the next say two weeks. i'm sorry, sara, go ahead. >> no, i was going to say that's a pretty optimistic take, al i alexandra. do you agree? >> i think he made a point, it's a stumble. how big a stumble to be seen. look, j

evan newmark and terry haines of evercor isi. terry, let me go to you.what do you make of what happens with health care and the corporate tax bill? >> well, i think two things, kelly. firstly, what you'll hear from speaker ryan this afternoon is trying to fix the health care system is the right thing to do. as he has said and as president trump has said, you know, politically you could let the system fall apart and they decided they didn't want to do that. so good for them. secondly, they're going to do a hard pivot to health care. excuse me, hard pivot to tax reform. they'll work on tax reform hard. second mnuchin said this morning that they're still shooting for august to get tax reform done. i think that's an ambitious time frame. it's at the early edge of our own time frame in the third or fourth quarter. it shows how committed they are to it. and i think there's a joint interest by president trump and the congress to really push hard on this and turn -- >> we're going to go again to paul ryan the moment he begins speaking, mike. just some thoughts o