of course, high expectations.ing this bill goes through the house tomorrow, high expectations for what this will do for lower income households and growth overall. for more on this and the potential impact, we are joined by elizabeth pancotti senior advisor with employee america. of this extraordinary bill, $1.9 trillion, what do you expect will be the most powerful impact? is it the checks, the expanded unemployment benefit? what really stands out to you? elizabeth: i think it is a combination. i think it was developed as a package rather than ad hoc stimulus here and there. topped off unemployment benefits and extended unemployment benefits have been extended out to labor day to the beginning of september. that $300 per week payment will be extended to their and workers will receive 29 additional weeks of unemployment insurance. on the non-jobless worker front, $1400 checks will be sent to households and individuals making under $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples. the child tax credit expansion inc

this change had been expected. graph was announced as early as back to of course you may see a little bit of movement but not too much on this story specifically. >> so 2020 was a pretty horrible year for rolls royce. do we think from those results that the worst is behind them and now it's looking brighter? >> they do seem to be indicating that, mark. we have seen shares moving higher. they were about 6% higher. their 2020 was worse than expected. is that the peak? is it getting better than here? they are sticking to their outlook for cash inflow rather to improve. so that's probably some of the reason why we're seeing some positivity. anna: the c.e.o. speaking as we speak here, dani. let me come to you on wpp. the advertising business. a lot of companies go on the share buyback. and we've had some news on that. >> that's right. advertising much like airlines has been a very rough u rough time over the past year. but they're sharing their share buyback. and part of that points to the optimism going forward. they s

i think we expect the u.s. positive, but it may be -- i think we will be scrutinizing the safety in the phase 3. in the end, if the u.s. doesn't actually need the astrazeneca, they have an abundance of vaccines for the population. an fda approval will be support for the confidence in the vaccine for the wider world. if another agency backs the vaccine. anna: thank you for your time. peter welford, the research analyst at jefferies. coming up, the former who is backing up. our interview with the co-founder is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the excitement here is about an entire generation that are discovering capital markets and the rising voice of retail investors in topical markets which is a very positive thing for the markets. i think apart of the uniqueness is that we viewed the social network as an inc. educational platform. they are able to see what other people are doing. anna: the ceo on what makes the trading platform stand out. they are about to go public in a $10.4 billion merger. something we me

we expect it to go down. ig, we expect lower supply. it will be a lot about deleveraging. so a lot of companies are making the right moves we would expect in a high-growth year. we would expect most of the growth to come in the next couple quarters as the stimulus is spent, of course. before we would start to look for any kind of creeping back of covid concerns, but ultimately, we expect to end the year at potential in terms of growth. lisa: if credit risk is not the main risk, are you delving also into the riskiest appropriate debt, the ccc rated stuff, even on the fixed side, even on the bond side? >> a little bit. because of valuations over the are, if you see continued volatility and you are not being compensated as much as you would like as an investor with rich valuations, it does not make sense to go over your fees on risk and take a bunch of risks in your portfolio. but it does make sense to reach incrementally into this higher risk areas because we do expect growth to support these companies and allow them to improve fundamentals on the air. jonathan: good to see

rose less than expected where.n the final trade, relief for some gamestop shareholders, the stock stabilized after having tumbled romantically. we will get into gamestop soon enough, but all the inflation euphoria. joe: gamestop basically flat on the day, also more or less flat, cpi. this is a source of anxiety. if there is one thing that would were the market, it is faster than expected cpi. it came in less than expected, i headline, mild. this month year-over-year is going to get interesting because we have the base effect left from leicester, but on any basis, it is not showing up, at least not in the headlines. romaine: i will be interested in tomorrow and some of those producer price indexes. joe: joining us with more insight, bloomberg news monetary policy and economics reporter matt bosler. matt, thanks for joining us. what strikes you about the report? matt: we can slice and dice this report different ways, but it always comes back to shelter inflation. that is the dominant component of the consumer price i

~ .., , ., be expected? when it comes to -- kim yo-'ona , be expected?doesn't _ be expected? when it comes to -- kim yo-jong, she doesn't mince _ be expected? when it comes to -- kim yo-jong, she doesn't mince her - be expected? when it comes to -- kim yo-jong, she doesn't mince her word. | yo—jong, she doesn�*t mince her word. kind of the attack dog of kim jong—un. i think there is a warning there and i think the reading of it should be we are watching you. now, when it comes to this time of year, and i think this is what has to be mentioned, the united states are carrying out military drills. every year, this happens in every year. sometimes that�*s a missile test. other times, that�*s... sometimes that�*s a missile test. othertimes, that�*s... i sometimes that�*s a missile test. other times, that�*s... ithink there�*s a deeper meaning with regards to south korea and the statement, and at the income that stem the tale of... it really is the time to come, so i think there�*s a warning in there. i think what they�*re hearing from the delegation might not

we are not expecting high return.e've not been too bothered by what is happening in the near term. we have turned our attention to liquid alternatives to help bolster the portfolio. as we were reducing bonds, we moved into equities, particularly the parts of the equity markets that of not been getting as much action, stocks with lower valuations. that move towards the end of 2020 proved very helpful in the last quarter of that year and so far in this year we have seen really great returns from our more value-oriented stocks. shery: are you selling out of growth and tech? it seems most investors need to get that cash out of somewhere and growth is being pressured right now. >> we have been worried about growth for a long time. especially as 2020 came to an end. while we have some growth players in the portfolio, our business has been on value. really a move out of bonds and into the value allocation, not only in the u.s., but overseas. we are excited about what is happening in emerging markets in terms of opportunity o

that is expected to be addressed. is there any indication we could see a walk back from the biden administration or they taking a tougher line? tom: they are taking a tougher line. we have heard the biden administration reached out to suppliers of components like 5g chips and the batteries, components they were shipping to huawei under license, having applied for licenses. the administration said the license restrictions are being tightened. we do not want you supplying these components if they are used in 5g products. this is about ensuring there is clarity on the use of the entity list and the use of these licenses. they have been calling for this. it is also partly a reminder that the biden administration will be tightening the curves when it comes to these entities list and particular technologies to chinese companies and specifically huawei. haidi: tom mackenzie in beijing. we will have more reaction to that closing session with the co-author of red capitalism who will be joining us on dk: asia. the biden adminis

what you would would expect now? but there was. what you would would expect now?— expect now?rth koreans like the _ expect now? but now the north koreans like the biden - koreans like the biden administration are focused in words. they are dealing with the pandemic and the leadership is clear they are worried about the economy, fixing their internal affairs first but that's not to say their nuclear weapons programmes don't remain a concern. meanwhile the united states is conducting a policy review, looking up and down, and that review should be completed by the middle of next month, but certainly in seoul, secretary blinken and secretary austen will be discussing with the south korean counterparts how to deal with the north korean problem. mr how to deal with the north korean problem. mr blinken is very experienced. _ korean problem. mr blinken is very experienced. have - very experienced. have you seen hints of what to expect? at very experienced. have you seen hints of what to expect?- hints of what to expect? at the summit, hints of what to expect? at the summit. on — hints

and we expect the pace to accelerate. even with that extraordinary acceleration, we are not going to get back to pre-pandemic jobs until next year. alix: so what do you do, david, if you have extraordinary job growth continuing even if we are not back at the levels we need to be at, and a stronger dollar, what is priced into the equity market, how do you need to rethink it? david: coming into this year, we were of the view that what worked in 2020 probably was not going to work as well in 2021. that is the way you have seen markets play out, particularly in the past couple weeks. i think this reopening trade still has legs. we looked at the relationship between the relationship between encyclicals and defensives relative to the steepness of the yield curve. what we find is those more cyclical assets tend to outperform as the curve steepen's. with employment goals still a ways off in the eyes of the fed and the markets pricing in that economic growth, we think the curve can continue to steepen, and this more value-oriented

in our case, we saw the drop in february as expected. we expect march to pick up.ere we are in the cycle, we want to be prudent with our guidance. >> ok, then give us your demand outlook in terms of orders. >> we recently launched a battery version of the models. those are actually lower cost and allowed us to price our vehicle more competitively. these versions will be delivered to customers in the second quarter and that we expect will broaden the customer base for our products. 2021, we will be introducing a number of new products. in addition to the g3 and p7, we will have a facelift of g3 delivered starting end of the third quarter as well as a third brand-new model, incorporating technology in the vehicle. haidi: how much of the cautious outlook is to do with the shortage in chips and batteries? is that something that will weigh on the forecast? >> we are watching the development of the chip as well as battery supply chain. we have not seen the impact in the forecast for the first quarter. i take we had the ability for 2-3 months. so we are watching the long-

what is your expectation?xpectation is we get a fairly consistent message from what we've gotten so far from powell. so far, the rising bond yields that we've seen is consistent with a stronger growth outlook, but they may be quite clear about what it would take to cause a reaction or more clear what it would take. that would be centered around disorderly conditions in markets and financial conditioning that have tightened too far and inappropriately. we may get more color on some of that from the fed but i think the messaging of the forecast will be interesting as well. we may get more participants penciling in a rate hike before 2023. anna: melanie baker, royal london asset management senior economist. thank you for spending time with us this morning. coming up, we will talk about a sector that is interested in what the fed has to say -- banks. a big day as news from the banking sector. credit suisse reports its best start to a year in more than a decade. in the u.k., sba has started criminal proceedings. de

jonathan: do you expect that from chairman powell? ebrahim: we expect a nuanced message. he will reinforce his policy intentions, no expectation for tapering, and he will continue to endorse the good news and that the good news expresses in bond yields as well. it will be nuanced, not a major pushback. jonathan: that's sketch of their commodity currency in the fx market at the moment, given what is happening in china, how comfortable are you with a conversation around another commodity cycle? ebrahim: we think that the -- the australian dollar, the norwegian krone, the kiwi dollar, we would not talk over the super cycle per se, but we think there will be a bigger demand for all kinds of commodities for oil on the reopening story, industrials on the restocking and infrastructure, even with some slowing in these demands. we will not have a super cycle like in that you thousands, but all bodes well for a pickup after the crisis. tom: when the euro come down and come down, we have a bit of a 119, what is your 12 month call on euro? is it tradable or is it a mystery? ebrahim:

we are expecting more details later. bloomberg. ♪ ♪ haidi: taking a look ahead at the day, a speech at the australian finance industry association after the rbn emphasized the need for higher wages before considering any prospect of a right hike. catch that on lif -- on leave ive go on your bloomberg terminal. in new zealand, auckland airport on watch report today 73% drop in passenger movement during the past eight months, not surprising given the state of international travel at the moment. shery: let's turn to a check of the latest business flash headlines. uber will reclassify all 70,000 of its u.k. drivers as workers after a landmark ruling from the supreme court last month that entitles them to the $12 minimum wage, which uber describes as an earnings floor, not a ceiling. drivers will also get vacation pay and other benefits. uber did not say how much the pay reclassification cost, but did not include any changes in its earnings for the order. arising first net income rising to 281 billion dollars, the world's big

expectation this week will be the fed will push back on hike expectations or rates. they want inflation to run hot. if that is above 2.5, 2.3, we know. at the same time the market is stuck between two narratives. the effect of stimulus on the dollar and on the market. we are seeing repricing of expectations, at least in terms of what forward guidance will be come in terms of tapering. that will be indicated by a dot plot. there's a lot of focus on dot plots. i think that is what will drive the market. annmarie: what about long-duration hit the worst? the worst for 30 years in the last 100 years. anything jay powell could say that will extend that? >> we talk about pushback on the slr. it is hard for the fed to suppress yields at this stage. growth has been strong. inflation outlook is picking up. there is stability. equities have not installed -- have not stalled. one thing they will possibly reserve that power until they see a tangible slowdown, at least in the economy or they see a shock to the system, or a second walk down with covid -- lockdown with covid. there

you were expecting gunjan: -- demand you were expecting?e trend overall for e-commerce, and we see that in new customer acquisition. and as use cases for some lower categories like women's apparel and shoes come back, we will see profitability on that front. but meanwhile, while people are still working at home, we see home living, loungewear showing strong momentum. and kids apparel, that category i see as very resilient, even in the ups and downs of the pandemic. haidi: where are using the most growth opportunities out of the seven markets in the region that you operated? gunjan: there is growth across the board. we are seeing high traction in the philippines and malaysia, especially with the adoption of e-commerce shifting dramatically. and also in malaysia and indonesia, there is usually an uptick in demand for our kind of category. shery: given the pandemic, it seems everybody was to get into e-commerce. are you concerned about competition? what is your edge? gunjan: i would say our biggest edge is the quality of the software and the f

store sales expected $540 million.ore than 5% this morning. >>> pagerduty is lower this morning. revenue rising 29% ahead of the company's outlook top line guidance are ahead of previous forecasts the company is projecting wider losses than wall street expected shares are down more than 4% >>> still on deck, amc theaters looking to wrap up the covid hiatus and opening the doors and firing up the project ors. >> announcer: today's big number $1.1 trillion. that's how much the covid-19 induced travel collapsed reduced economic output in the u.s. last year according to the u.s. travel association. spending on travel dropped 42% in 2020. so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, to

generally, what we are expecting — say. generally, what we are expecting is _ say.is for _ say. generally, what we are expecting is for a _ say. generally, what we are expecting is for a stronger l say. generally, what we are i expecting is for a stronger us recovery. the fed is going to talk a little bit about how this additional spending is going to impact the economy, but overall, we must bear in mind that these are still early daysin mind that these are still early days in terms of the recovery, therefore it is unlikely that any major central bank is going to make significant changes in policy at this stage.— policy at this stage. when do ou policy at this stage. when do you think. — policy at this stage. when do you think, there _ policy at this stage. when do you think, there is _ policy at this stage. when do you think, there is so - policy at this stage. when do you think, there is so much l you think, there is so much discussion in financial markets about when interest rates will be going up. when do you think that might be? it is be going up. when do you t

i am not expecting china to start sanctioning myanmar, but we could possibly expect china to pressureilitary. they have those levers of influence, they have those channels of communication. what is required from the international community is to try and build a consensus on ways forward, it is an escalating crisis, things can get far worse. the longer it last the more geopolitically driven it may become. it is a case of acting now to try and offset the worst possible situation. this has to be on the mind of both beijing and washington. at the moment, i think the reticence on both ends to try and work together on this shared concern. haidi: always great to have you with us. we are also on the watch for keycode data out of china, industrial production, retail sales as well as new home prices all coming across on bloomberg over the next couple of hours. bloomberg subscribers can go live to get analysis and reaction from our expert editors. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: we are seeing u.s. futures gaining ground. we had a little bit of armed volatility, to watch out for that. the asx 200 at

we are expecting that will come.ot clear if it is going to come in a single swab or if the saudis will do it in a more gradual basis. but saudi has a lot of power at the meetings this week probably more than usual, because they can put a bargaining trip on the negotiations -- bargaining chip on the negotiations. probably that gives the saudis more leverage in this meeting. anna: thanks very much, javier. good to see you. as we were speaking, the kuwaiti oil ministers saying kuwait is optimistic about the opec-plus meeting. we will continue coverage as we run up to that meeting proper tomorrow, and as needed to the meeting this afternoon. on the program before that, stocks we are watching today. the u.k. chancellor richie sunak is going to make his budget announcement later today. what will be in it for the hospitality sector? more on the stocks in focus from the u.k. budget, next. ♪ anna: just six and a half minutes until the start of cash equities trading. we are taking into account the moves in the market, which we

what do you expect that to look like?im: gdp up a lot, unemployment down, inflation up maybe 1/10. right now, you have five dots in 2023 so you have to have four shift to shift the median in 2023. i think you will get a couple. they will begin to acknowledge moving sooner for the first tightening, may not shift the entire dot plot, but i think they need to navigate carefully this idea that higher rates are healthy for the markets if they reflect solid growth and modest inflationary pressures reaching the fed's target. higher rates do not create a reduction in negative feedback loop to financial conditions. jonathan: walk us through that. jim: i think no question there is going to be an upgrade to growth, there might even be a slight upgrade to inflation. there is one thing i am looking for. what does the fed do with their expectation for the first rate hike? we don't expect any liftoff or policy rates moving higher until late 2023, but this is a test to the fed's credibility. whenever we look at 10 year yields, we have to

with that be your expectation?> the key question is whether this is sustained or whether it's transitory. that is the big tug-of-war in the markets at the moment. and no one is entirely sure. we won't really know until the end of this year, which of those are the eventual victor. but the fed reserve yesterday was in that transitory camp. i think most people, almost everyone is saying there will be some hike in inflation at some point this year, partially because of demand supply, but will that be sustained? the federal reserve, for the time being, is saying no. mark: transitory first a sustained inflation is the biggest issue. what are you looking for yourself as the lead indicator for that issue? yes, we may not know the answers until the end of the year, but that might not be profitable. what are you looking for as a lead indicator? edward: these tectonic shifts we are seeing in markets are already see leadership change from day-to-day and week to week. certainly not one to sit on the sideline for. we have all be

our expectation is that we can — income instead?ectation is that we can grow the _ income instead? our expectation is that we can grow the business - income instead? our expectation is that we can grow the business by l that we can grow the business by treating drivers well and bringing drivers onto the platform, and also by growing with cities as they unlock. ., ., , ., unlock. tonight onedrive a's union was pleased- _ unlock. tonight onedrive a's union was pleased- -- — unlock. tonight onedrive a's union was pleased. -- driver's _ unlock. tonight onedrive a's union was pleased. -- driver's union - unlock. tonight onedrive a's union| was pleased. -- driver's union was was pleased. —— driver's union was pleased. i was pleased. -- driver's union was leased. , , ., ., , ., pleased. i wish they had done this a few ears pleased. i wish they had done this a few years ago. _ pleased. i wish they had done this a few years ago. but _ pleased. i wish they had done this a few years ago, but this _ pleased. i wish they had done this a few year

you would expect economies open as you expect u.s.mand will pick up and that will support the oil price. you will see broad-based commodity support across the board given the outlook, and generally these types of assets that do well will be reflationary, so i do not think the oil price will shoot massively higher but i think it can't remain at over $65 a barrel. shery: how will the u.s. factor in especially when we have this rising rate environment? >> the thing about the rising rates is thinking about the growth revisions around the world and those provisions are probably most strong in the u.s. at the moment given the vaccine rollout, fiscal stimulus at the moment, and that will determine what happens with the currency. as the u.s. economy looks like it will be stronger than much of europe or the rest of the world. you may see upward lift in terms of thinking about how the dollar will perform. the story about global growth becomes much more synchronized across the second half of the year. you are more likely to see the dollar weaken

no change expected to the rates there. in brazil, as we saw, we saw the tightening cycle being kicked off with the riau in focus. haidi: our top story now, the fed is holding a doublet line despite upgrading its u.s. outlook and counting inflation worries being addressed. highlights from jerome powell's remarks. >> i would like to start by noting it has been a full year since the pandemic arrived with force on our shores. the economic fallout has been real and widespread. we can say some of the very worst economic outcomes have been avoided. while we welcome these positive developments, no one should be complacent. economic recovery remains far from complete. the high level of joblessness has been severe for low-wage workers in the service sector and for african-americans and hispanics. the state of the economy in two or three years is highly uncertain. we are on a good path with cases coming down. we are not done and i would hate to see us take our eye off the ball before we finish the job. have said we would like to see

he's expected to address a whole range of issues.st week, it has been the national people's congress. they have talked about the economy in terms of how to continue the recovery, how to build out a better quality growth, how to shift from investment and real estate growth that we saw last year to a more consumer led growth and business investment led growth. what we also saw was plans to develop and build out china's own technology self-sufficiency. that's a longer-term plan. we expect more details on that. in terms of the economy, that's where he feels comfortable. what is he going to say about monetary policy and the deleveraging push year? how far is china willing to go? that is still a debate here for investors and analysts. anything he has to say about u.s. china ahead of this important meeting next week. manus: it's almost as if the rhetoric around the u.s.-china trade relations has been committed. have i missed a big story somewhere? tom: it has been touched on. the foreign minister talked about it on sunday. you had the brief

i don't expect that. i think, you know, one way or the other, it would make everyone's life easier on the fed side if they don't do that either way, he has to spend a lot of time talking about inflation being a transatory item that is the script he will go with he will have to do a fair amount of dancing it would be worse if they change the plots. >> bill, let's talk about the forecast that came from you for q 1 gdp. 10%. for perspective. 8.6% from the fed. why are you feeling so optimistic >> part of it stems from what i talked about earlier which is the stimulus running through the retail sales. that means consumer strong i'm already thinking if you think about reopening. the easy thing to point to is the mobility numbers track cell phone usage mobility is the highest it has been post-covid. that is telling you people are getting out and about. all of the other things you track around vaccinations and et cetera at the end of the day, if people are moving around, it is a high likelihood you will see a st

what is the pushback we are expecting? emily: we have already heard pushback from republicans even before today on this plan. republican minority leader senator mitchum has said the tax hike would be a nonstarter if it would roll back pieces of the republican 2017 tax bill, as this one does. there has been opposition from republicans on this front, pushback not only on the price tag but also on the larger package. the infrastructure package was outlined today, but another part of the package will be outlined next month. it deals with things like health care, child tax credit, paid sick leave, and that is something republicans have already come out and said that should not be attached to an infrastructure package. it does seem at this point that even though president biden is doing outreach to republican members and talking to them today, that they are getting ready for democrats to go at it again, which means they are going to have to work to make sure all democrats are already on board. haidi: talk to the substance of thi

this expected to happen today.s would be able to reopen indoors at 25% or 100 people, whichever is fewer. gyms and fitness centers could resume for indoor operations at 10% capacity, movie theaters same, 25%, or 100 people, whichever is fewer, museums, zoos and aquariums 25%. now if you take a closer look at alameda county, to move to the red tier, counties must have less than seven positive cases per 100,000 people for two weeks, and you could see in alameda county right now at 6.3, so they're below that 7 per 100,000 threshold. if you take a look at the map of the bay area, you could see which counties are in their respective reopening tiers. as we mentioned solano and alameda are in the purple tier, expected to move into the red tier if that happens, that leaves only two bay area counties still in purple, contra costa and sonoma. both of those counties are headed in the right direction. contra costa county has 8.1 cases per 100,000. we want to get down to 7, again. sonoma is at 9.6. sonoma county health official

henry, i'm surprised ou would expect. henry, i'm surprised you haven't — would expect.n't interjected _ would expect. henry, i'm surprised you haven't interjected as - would expect. henry, i'm surprised you haven't interjected as such - would expect. henry, i'm surprised you haven't interjected as such just yet, but ijust need to clarify, we will talk about nicola sturgeon in a moment, but wejust will talk about nicola sturgeon in a moment, but we just have to say that the final report hasn't been published yet, such as stressing that, and we welcome like i say, we will talk about that in a moment. let's get your reaction to the oxford astrazeneca vaccination and the metro also looking at the aspect from the european union, safe and effective is that you's verdict. as well as in the uk, henry.- effective is that you's verdict. as well as in the uk, henry. very much so. i well as in the uk, henry. very much so- i agree — well as in the uk, henry. very much so- i agree with _ well as in the uk, henry. very much so. i agree with what _ well as in the uk, henry. very much s

are we expecting this to be catching? are we expecting others to take action? if we see columnists in markets with yields solidifying around the 1.4% mark on treasuries, maybe that removes the urgency with which we would expect central banks to act? laura: it certainly is too soon for powell to push back this week. they want to play a passive role to capture growth prospects and financial conditions do remain relatively loose. they don't want to actually be seen as markets forcing their hand but at the same time, i do think we are going to see diversions across central banks start to be a dominant theme so the ecb did come out last week warning of this rise in real rates just because that could thwart a nascent economic recovery at this stage, something they want to push back on. we will get data later today on where bond purchases over the last week and that will provide any clues into whether we are seeing the ecb's invisible hand in markets because the european government bond market on friday was quite calm relative to the volatility earlier in the week so

we expect this to play out next month.will be key, because then they will talk about the look through the inflation numbers, and at the same time look at gdp growth on the back of fiscal stimulus checks that have been paid out. for us, the june meeting is key. we have a similar projection as the fed and to stronger economic data coming out of the u.s. on the back of strong recovery, so what we are expecting is to see a change of tone, potentially in the june meeting, and then they might sort of signal a rewrite of the entire statement followed by revising their inflation and growth forecasts on the upside. that is when we will potentially see a signal and moving on, potential october, and announcement of tapering in october. haidi: in terms of where that leaves the bond markets, at what point do we see investors having to believe in the fed, the rba when they state rates are staying exactly where we are until we hit this inflation mandate. the fed, the. still showing 2023 , but futures tightening from potentially before th

if it is mostly just reopening, i think that is expected.f we see strength across industries that have held up fairly well throughout the process, then there is potential real acceleration within the employment discussion. lisa: the reason i ask is not necessarily from a day-to-day standpoint, but how much do you use the data we get today, tomorrow, friday to price out, to extrapolate out whether what we have seen in markets is already priced in this recovery and not necessarily something more? what would give you a sense that perhaps this inflationary push people are expecting had legs and could last longer than some people seem to think? marvin: i think we need to see the next few months of inflation and how it is being driven. we have online statistics we wind up using within a product that lets us look into real-time numbers. if it is coming from areas you would expect not to have that much pricing power, then it does show that the retailer, the seller has a bit more power this time around than they would have in the past. jonathan: marv

in our 8k we expect adjusted ebitda to come in 15% better than expected.week for ride share rides since the pandemic sthoochlt right. and brian, these are all really encouraging, optimistic numbers. again, i wonder what makes you so confident for the rest of the year when your chief rival said yesterday that he was going to be a little bit more cautious on the data that he is seeing are they seeing something different? do you think your focus on ride sharing amid the pandemic has put you in a better position for a recovery for a reopening >> sure. all we do is think about our transportation we go to bed thinking about the u.s. and canada. our strategy isn't just transportation it is ride sharing, bikes and scooters, transit, and rental cars in january we grew rides average daily ride volume grew 4% month on month. in february we grew another 4% if you normalized just for the week of february 21st, we grew 5.4% we are seeing a number of helpful data points. just to give you a perspective, if you look at q 4, october was the monthly peak october was the peak

what are you expecting?think the fed, actually as we say in english english, on a very sticky wicket, a varies tricky position here. the markets are racing ahead and getting excited, with this policy we may or may not be seeing. you are seeing that action at the longer end of the yield curve. the fed wants to encourage that optimism on one hand, but does not want to yields to go up. we still think that if you look at the longer run picture, the fed effectively is on guard rails, moving it towards job earnings, and quite likely some form of yield curve control just like in the boj case. on one level, the markets are going to like that, but it is less likely that the fed is going to be ahead and give them all their christmas presents this early in the year. there probably going to have to throw attention for the fed to give it to them. paul: i want to get a few more of your thoughts on bonds, particularly one analyst thoughts who was sharing ideas today. it was saying the economics of investing in bonds has be

— johnson expect? it is worth stressing — johnson expect? stressing we don't know i johnson expect? it is worth l stressing we don't know what johnson expect? it is worth i stressing we don't know what the european commission is proposing, but certainly they have not ruled out using emergency powers, which haven't been used for more than a0 years. this is because they feel very strongly that astrazeneca has let down the european union by sending tens of million fewer doses than have been promised. the company says it is doing all it can to boost production rates. as we were hearing there, the commission said it is not about blocking exports to the uk for the sake of it, but making sure astrazeneca delivers on its contract. but interestingly, some eu countries are worried about how this row could really escalate and possibly affect global supplies of vaccines, and also the ingredients within them. it is worth looking at the bigger picture, covid cases are on the right cases. in poland, france and other places bringing in tighter measures to d

so you expect from _ vaccination campaign. so you expect from this _ vaccination campaign.ign. so you | expect from this new minister vaccination campaign. so you i expect from this new minister a little more push behind vaccinations, a little more pressure for people to wear masks but not actually much change. as far as we can tell, would brazilians brazilians generally feel about this? we know right — generally feel about this? - know right now, according to the latest polls, 49% of brazilians are very concerned about this current moment of spiking coronavirus around the country particularly because of this p1 variant from the amazon which has two times the viral load and is spreading around the country. in the south, 80% of that current cases are that emma's variant so that is extremely concerning. we know that bolsonaro only has 18% of the population's support and 61% of the country are adamantly against bolsonaro and his policies around the pandemic, so i think he is seeing those figures and trying to shift a little bit. 0verall, bolsonaro is setting the tone and that'

what is your expectation for today? wei: the wide range of payroll estimates has been a hallmark of economic data releases as we navigated through this pandemic and i would note that our expectation for u.s. economic data actually has been positive and that we think the labor market. i would note that especially given the recent focus on central-bank reaction mechanisms, we could see a situation where somewhat disappointing data might actually erase market hopes or greater fed support. if we have a slamdunk, it could add to some of the disappointment that markets have around the fed not immediately coming to rescue so some of that good data, not necessarily very good for markets, and that data potentially giving more hope for markets. i think the dynamics could play out today. annmarie: i want to get your take on the selloffs we had yesterday, the tech heavyweights. the nasdaq is away from a correction. do you think that we are well underway and the global rotation or do you want to maintain a hold on some of those grow

former fed governor sarah bloom raskin on this show laying out her expectations for powell and company really be paying attention to the language that chairman powell uses in his press conference today he's going tomorrow, he's going to have a lot of questions and how he answers those questions, particularly as they relate to this slight tightening in short-term interest rates, both in treasury markets, as well as in some corporate bond markets, that's what we're going to want to listen to and hear his level of concern >> and just like everybody else on wall street, we are keeping a close with on those short-term yields you see the ten-year right now at 1.632 up slightly. >>> turning our attention to markets around the world, asia president of its press conference europe getting its trading day started with germany's dax coming off a record close. our joumanna bercetche is live in the newsroom. good morning, joumanna >> you if you can looking at it, you wouldn't know it's st. patrick's day because there's absolute no green. uk down 0.3 percentage points we're seeing major declines in b

kriti: it speaks to so many expectations built into the market.ust look at the range of jobless claims alone. i'm going into powell's conference, a range of expectations on what he is going to talk about. romaine: when it doubt, blame bond investors. caroline: kriti gupta, great to happy with us as always. coming up, more on fed chair jay powell. the rising yields and what it means for the market going forward, should there be pushback? this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ romaine: when we came into this thursday, stocks were in a holding pattern, investors waiting to see what jay powell say, particularly about the jump in bond yields. they didn't like what they heard, bond yields spiked and the stock market tournament lower. it is not clear what they wanted out of him. he has been consistent. joe: extremely consistent. let's listen to powell. >> we want labor market conditions consistent with our assessment of maximum employment. we want inflation sustainably at 2%. these are desirable outcomes that would represent an economy that is very far along the road to

and what do you expect them to do with prices? i have to say it's impossible to say with any confidence she will express and see bottle necks emerge and clear over time. and you'll see that over a period of time. because really the strong data are ahead of us. right now, the checks are going out. just now and that will spending. covid cases are come dog un. vaccinations moving quickly. the strong economic data is coming quickly. it should be coming, assuming i stay on this track. you can see though and supplies will be unable to adapt. the market will be clear. it just may take time and some of the answer may be prices. and you'll see that people are reluctant to raise prices. it's a little the story of the wage -- it does show wages go down -- companies choose not to pass that price increase along to their customers. anyway, we'll see and that's my big basic sense. thank you very much. >> tonight, from politico, the washington post, cnn, and nbc, they talk about covering the biden administration in its first 100 days. then, repub

they know what to expect.terms of where the future is and what kind of participants you see in the market, china is a great example. joe: what are you going to be watching year? what are going to be the themes you watch to see how that have -- now that we have -- what is next? >> i think the big one is going to be things that have to do with inflation. i am looking at semi conductors, which is a weird take on inflation. also a way to play the tech space as well. you have to look at things like energy stocks. they have become such a global proxy you for growth and economic growth out of china and the u.s. and yet, their prices are controlled by opec, u.s. shale producers. there is a lot of push and pull. it tells you, what era are we in? are we in this era where oil is a part of our lives or tech taking hold? caroline: a good way to leave it when we have such a selloff in the day. she always have some really great takes. what are you looking at the next couple of hours? joe: i have been looking at prices of the

they expect it to overshoot. in the following year. >> larry - >> go ahead. >> continue your thought, larry. >> so this is not at all a surprise and it doesn't tell us very much about whether they're going to go too fast or too slow. so we'll have to see 2023 is a long way off as the chair always likes to say. the crystal ball is very cloudy out there. don't pay too much attention to the dots in 2023 and he's right the forecast is wrong. we know that it's always wrong. we shouldn't pay all that much attention to it. some perspective on what the individual members are thinking. >> what about a tapered timeline is it still appropriate for the fed to be making the purchases at the level at which they are and when does powell need to forecast that more clearly for the markets? >> it's certainly not for the foreseeable future they can see when they need to taper. it is when there's significant progress very vague it is in the eyes of beholder and interesting discussion within the committee i think that if you look at

where do you expect this and how quickly?ll be undoubtedly a nice pickup in close contact consumers services. hopefully the whole u.s. economy can reach a degree of herd immunity. the consumers have been frustrated for the last 12 months. that pent-up demand will go on during a lot of this. we are seeing around the world, fascinating data out of new zealand, pretty much every major economy is seeing a spike into real estate. there are big cash balances, and not clear they will go into a productive economic stimulus that closes significant output gaps. anna: where does that take us on inflation? if the money sits in bank accounts or goes into real estate, where does that leave us on the inflation side of things? i was reading a piece by a colleague suggesting more time levels of stimulus are required because we are fighting a war against the pandemic. the u.s. have spent as much as in world war i, but that gives you something to compare that to. huge amounts of money. simon: it is a huge amount of money. on the participation r

it is fair to say the lowered expectations are what to expect here. what are you hoping to hear?could not agree with you more. expectations are being lowered hour-by-hour. the lead up to this meeting the u.s. has proposed two sets of sanctions against chinese officials. one with respect to hong kong. another with respect to telecommunications and national security risks. this suggests it will be a tense meeting. both sides will go through their priorities, what is on their mind, their concerns, their intentions and the red lines. i'm not expecting any agreements or future agenda for meetings to be issued after this meeting. matt: before trump took office he said he wanted to bring down the u.s. trade deficit with china. economists said that was not necessarily the main goal he should be aiming for. nonetheless, he put that as his headline on his agenda. that clearly did not happen from the chart we showed before you came in. what could president biden do in order to achieve that? is it even a goalie we want to achieve? wendy: -- goal we want to achieve? wendy: two want to measure

we do expect to begin repayment of dividends normally.s always, in this environment, if growth is less than we thought it would be, the risks to the economy and the virus are not more than we thought they were going to be, we retain the opportunity to return that capital to shareholders at a later stage. annmarie: what about building provisions like you did last year? where are you in terms of credit impairments? mike: we believe credit impairments peaked in the first half of last year. largely as a consequence of the forward-looking impairments we raised in the second quarter. and from that peak of around 190 basis points, we finished the year at 161 basis points, and expect our credit loss ratio to trend downwards in 2021. manus: what kind of growth are you looking for? is it contingent on south africa's vaccine rollout? mike: for any country in the world, 2021 vaccination rollout is the best economic policy they can pursue. our current view is having shrunk by 7% in 2020, the south african economy will grow at 3.4% in 2021. if that pla

you expect to see.the same rationale drive further consolidation within the domestic spanish banking market? it seems we have talked about this for a long time. will there be more to come involving you or other players? gonzalo: consolidation is a good tool. both in spain and the rest of the eurozone, domestic consolidation is likely to continue. it is difficult to know the timing. there is no question that i think many will find this a useful way forward. we are very happy with what we have done. the transaction was made over six month ago. the rationale for the deal is even clearer to us now. hopefully, this will lead others to reconsider further consolidation both in spain and the rest of the eurozone. anna: thank you for your time. we appreciate your time. gonzalo rotaeche, ceo of caixabank. coming up here on the european market open, the eu vaccine failures overshadow climate and industry. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back to the european market open. 15 minutes until the start of the session

sydney expecting quite a bit today.address the latest problematic incident when it comes to the toxic culture and sexual assault accusations. discussion of the report of lewd and sexual acts. there have been video circulated amongst local press that have been made public showing sex sex committed for up to two years including photos of them on the desk of a female lawmaker, but morrison saying he has welcome the spotlight on these disgraceful acts, after women marched across the country saying, this clearly shows some women believe he has not heard. this follows the legend rape but parliament terri worker as well as the accusation of rape of the australian attorney general. more coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile, you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network? sure thing! and with fast, nationwide 5g included - at no extra cost? we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated

expected level, rather— the current supply fluctuation might be expected level, rather than - be expectedect supply levels to be in line withi supply levels to be in line with expectation _ supply levels to be in line with expectation of— supply levels to be in line with expectation of the _ supply levels to be in line with expectation of the next - supply levels to be in line with expectation of the next few. supply levels to be in line with - expectation of the next few months and that— expectation of the next few months and that no— expectation of the next few months and that no target _ expectation of the next few months and that no target dates _ expectation of the next few months and that no target dates for - and that no target dates for vaccinations— and that no target dates for vaccinations will— and that no target dates for vaccinations will be - and that no target dates fori vaccinations will be missed? and that no target dates for . vaccinations will be missed? i and that no target dates for - vaccinations will be missed? i can absolutely give — vaccinations will be missed? i

we are expecting — years. tell us about the challenges. we are expecting it _ years.ars. tell us about the challenges. we are expecting it to be _ years. tell us about the challenges. we are expecting it to be just - years. tell us about the challenges. we are expecting it to be just as - we are expecting it to be just as busy this year. i we are expecting it to be 'ust as busy this yeanfi we are expecting it to be 'ust as busy this yeahfi busy this year. i will let you get on and do _ busy this year. i will let you get on and do your— busy this year. i will let you get on and do your training - busy this year. i will let you get j on and do your training because busy this year. i will let you get | on and do your training because i think they are all going to go in. just coming over to henry. you are in charge of 30 lifeguards down in devon. tell us what are the challenges, how will it be different this year? challenges, how will it be different this ear? , , ., , this year? this year we will still be providing — this year? this year we will still be providing the _ th