because of the expectations of a soft landing, that is what is expected? >> the room for the rate cut is based on where the real rates are. if you look at the rates where they are, you are getting tools worth 300 basis points of real rates. if you get rate cuts, you get some benefit off that. there will be a longer debate around the shape of the curve in the u.s. giving the financing. you can and potentially will see a steepening of the curve. you do want to lock in high yields. you want to have a high-yielding portfolio, maybe more concentrated in the front end of the curve. as the rate cuts start, it will give you the benefit of appreciation. haslinda: how much support are you seeing in the markets? >> in terms of the rates, i think so far it has been extremely well behaved despite the concerns everybody has raised around fiscal financing. as we go through the pension funds rebalancing that has been happening over the last 18 months, the question will come up again in terms of the marginal buyer. there will be more concern about the long and. i think the

china's factory out book strongly expected -- stronger than expected at the end of the year but consumers are still not stepping up. india to whole the world's biggest elections six weeks, april 19, prime minister bidding for a third term and we are joined by morgan stanley chief asian economist on his take. and breaking news, dollar bonds have dropped the most in six months after u.s. prosecutors expanding on the [indiscernible] potential bribery and the group has just recovered from the saga now facing yet another problem prosecutors expanding the probe to review potential bribery and dollar bonds for adani dropping the most in six months and let's look at how it pans out when india opens in 45 minutes from here so a big week for markets with the fed and boj in focus and let's see how it is all playing out in today's trading with avril hong. when you look at the market, not showing much dearth. >> a lot of it is already priced in or they are in wait-and-see mode. if you look at how the bod -- boj decision this week will set the near term direction for the global market, for the fed it i

certainly expectations when it comes to communication, not much of an impact in terms of actual expectationsmake a policy change. the bloomberg dollar index pretty flat. we saw the dollar firming somewhat after the core cpi -- exceeded forecast. the question is what happens with the yen. we have had signs of a big yen rally underway but could this potentially be another trap? the answers will be found in that bank of japan meeting kicking off march 19 and we are getting the wage numbers ahead of that. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is our future, ma. godaddy airo. creates a logo, website, even social posts... in minutes! -how? -a.i. (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see the future?! get your business online in minutes with godaddy airo >> we are counting down to asia's major market opens. a lot of different focus points of the session. u.s. inflation of course but also what is happening in japan and the big watch on wage negotiations and any pay bumps. what sort of reporting are be going to get later today? haidi: too close to call. some of this data could take a while to be brought tog

it's expected to come in line in april. there will be some makeup, particularly in public investment. the risk is that the execution of having to make up spending on the scale that is required, whether that can be implemented as much as forecasted. that's one big factor. it seems a bit more positive the last meeting. i would say that that would be the main factor. haslinda: always a pleasure to have you on the show. bank of thailand assistant governor joining us from bangkok. let's get a quick reaction on the outlook with head of asia strategy. what do you think, can it be well supported at the end of the year? >> considering that the fed is still likely to cut, it is still going to cut. that's going to allow currencies to recover. really at this point, we are looking at the lack of tourist flows. the assistant governor has said that there's been a disappointment in the tourist flows. that's really the one that's dampening the recovery in the thai baht. having said that, we expected to recover towards 34, assuming that the

the german brand expects to see sales rise 3% this year. that was in line with the expectations.he ceo told cnbc he is still confident about the company's pricing. >> the vin einvesting into the product is important and we are on track because it is all about the price value. as long as your product has a good price value, you can also adjust your prices slightly. we are well on track also on the march there. >>> let's look at lufthansa after the airline announced the first dividend proposal since the pandemic. as you can see, it is down 1% on the german trade despite the top and bottom line miss in the fourth quarter. >>> merck will report today a 5.6% decline in net sales in what the company called a transitional year. the group was hurt by sharply lower covid sales as well as inventory de-stocking as ebitda fell 14%. it expects to return to growth this year. the stock dipped 1%. the ceo told cnbc she expects a rebound in growth later this year. >> what we expected is for lyslife science, 2024 qit q2, to be stronger. as this continues, our business will pick up. >>> finally som

they are expecting to see what is i expecting to see what is happening.spense about that because everybody predicts all candidates are going to be the primary �*s. now the election, another so because we still have some months before the election actually happens. in politics, thatis actually happens. in politics, that is a very long period. wall street close lower overnight with tech stocks leading to decline. a republic, but research showed iphone sales in china fell by almost a quarter in the first six weeks of the year. our asia business report are in the newsroom with the latest. it seems they have been hit on two fronts, one of slowing demand and increasing competition. slowing demand and increasing competition-— competition. that is right. a challenging _ competition. that is right. a challenging time _ competition. that is right. a challenging time in - competition. that is right. a challenging time in chapterl competition. that is right. a i challenging time in chapter for apple. you talk about competition particularly from huawei, the biggest pr

well, the consumer price index came in hotter than expected as we were expecting.econd row, second month in a row, rather, this year that we had a hotter than expected cpi. month over month the consumer price index was up .4%, year-over-year up 3.2%. we've got a market that is rallying nonetheless ahead of the federal reserve meeting next week. the fed will meet on march 19th and 20th. luke, your reaction with the dow industrials up almost 100 points right now. >> two observations. number one, even though consumers are, average american, 40% of average americans have more credit card debt than emergency savings, they're still spending on department. so lean into that spending addiction. that's going to keep inflation pretty hot. the second thing is because of this invest in a.i. technology, inflation's to going to remain hot, it's going to be hard to get to 2%. because of that, interest rates are going to remain high. maria: good point. cheryl. >> we still have two ped meetings before the june meeting, and that's when traders are betting we're going to have a meani

the expectation has built up so much. much more evidence do you think you would want to see before we can declare a virtuous cycle? particularly when it comes to household sentiment. >> we definitely needed to confirm recovery of the consumption. the consumption has been very weak. in consecutive quarters of the contraction. the real wages is to declining. we have to pick up the consumption. service prices should pick up. still takes time to declare the real victory over the positive feedback between wages and prices. annabelle: if negative rates and yield curve control were to go today, do you think that is going to be enough to unleash the constraints of the yen or do you think what happens to the yen if we go toward 140, does that depend on what we hear from the fed? >> absolutely. it is more important to the fed. boj is moving maximum of 20 basis point change. the fed can move more than 100 in either direction. the fed is much more important for their direction -- for their prediction. haidi: how much certainty do you

nothing is expected. everybody is expected to have the fed to stay pat.e will look at the dot plots to show the outlook and the jay powell comments. are you expecting anything different from jay powell or the dot plots? >> i still think there would be dot plots showing three cuts this year. it could come as a shock if they reduce it further. i think they may sound a little more concerned about inflation given the recent, you know, hotter than expected consumer price index report, but it can emphasize that things are heading in the right direction. inflation is slowing and the pce is doing all right. i think things are concerning, but i don't think they will change the overall guidance because things are head in the right direction and signs the economy is slowing a bit. >> you are saying there are signs that would lead the fed to cut at least to some degree. there has been talk with economists saying there is a chance of no cuts. richard bernstein on cnbc yesterday saying the same thing. i want to talk about the a.i. trade. the magnificent seven trade. nv

it is expected to, up with a pretty hawkish tone. some expecting a slight tightening bias.t data has been consistent with progress towards the rba target. all of this against a black door up -- a backdrop of sticky inflation in the u.s. we are awaiting the fed decision. powell and friends have said they are not in a hurry to cut rates anytime soon. taking a look at where we are in terms of how the index is doing, currently up by about zero .1%. the aussie dollar at 65.59 versus usd. we are waiting for the rba rate decision. expectations are it will stand pad for a third eating in a row, on the back of the economy sharing signs -- showing signs of some weakness. a hawkish tone is expected from the rba on the back of the pretty hot property sector. paul, let's get your take on what is happening and what is expected from the rba. >> no change, which is no surprise. the cash rate stays at 4.53% for a third straight meeting, a 12 year high. now the tricky part begins, picking through the statement to figure out where we are heading next. here are some of the highlights from the

we are not expecting a long-term selloff.ight now, most of the central banks seem to be coordinating quite well. i do not expect a selloff or rally. going forward, if you have u.s. exceptionalism it should start to rally. >> it depends. it's going nowhere. as of been surprising that the asian market has been decoupled from china? >> the correlation is quite low. looking at domestic policy, the rest of the markets have been going up. i expected to continue. >> tech, ai. we seen how they rally. at what point? >> it depends on the policy and china. those are not pro-stockmarket. if they start supporting these companies, it could start to become a buy. >> thank you. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. [speaking chinese] ♪ >> the one place we could see a correction is shipped space. there was a lot of ordering has the shortage was making the round and those numbers will have to be digested. cathie wood on the back of what we saw in the u.s.. beauty about the charge lower. that one point erased $140 billion in market value. this

, yes, that is, what was the life expectancy, we all know that in ancient times and in the middle agesorter, but old age and life expectancy should never be confused, and why? because in the indicator various factors make a big contribution to life expectancy, for example, childhood... well , it’s hard for me to say exactly, but let’s say in the middle ages it could reach 40%, now, of course, child mortality is small, if i’m not mistaken, in my opinion, less than 1% it is around 0.5%. no, it’s still a little more, but we really are below the level of five for a developed country, and let’s just say we missed it, that is, five people per thousand live births have already passed, yes, hurray, well, i agree. yes, that’s why in this regard, it’s probably important to say in principle that such aging, that is, aging is a natural process of gradual deterioration in the function of the body, which leads to various disorders at the level of macromolecules, for example dna, yes, various mutations appear, disorders at the cellular level, all this is what is natural about this, well, tell me, thi

what is the expected outcome?rian: we expect those headlines in about an hour and the indication is the number will be strong. we had a couple of unions announced early results in those are all at 5%. the number two beat is three point eight, that's what we had one year ago. we think we will be above that. it will not get 5.5% but with inflation staying at or above target for two years, it is reasonable to think they will get 80% of demand but around 4.9%, the strongest growth in wages and more than 30 years, sending a strong signal to the boj. tom: we could be looking at 4.9%. what would be rationale for holding? what were the concerns be if they don't move? brian: they could say no real need to go immediately, we can send a signal that were going to do it but take another month. the boj has said it wants confirmation that it's wage price cycle is kicking off. if wage hikes are high, consumers will feel more confident about spending and that might be the catalysts to say wages will feed into demand and that is en

having said that, if we move we expect them to move, but also at the same time talk expectations down, so they do not want to the runaway policy expectation of higher and higher rates. they would want to push back against that. and terms of dollar-yen particularly, it also depends on how powell handles the midweek meeting at the u.s., and we do not expect too much of a change right now. we are sticking with our goal for about three cards this year, but dollar-yen will see initial reactions just based on the news . it is a very closely watched event and everyone will be parsing the comments out of the boj. haidi: does this even momentarily derail the equity rally? >> out of japan, i think it is momentous that we have crossed even though it is been briefly, we have crossed over the 40,000 mark on the nikkei levels that were set 30 years ago. there could be a pause but especially as the boj talks on future expectations of hikes, i think there is a theremin of confidence in the economy for bias to come back in. annabelle: there is the boj and then there is the fed. do you think the inflat

what are we expecting to hear?one thing everybody agrees on is the talks they are having yesterday and today will be in earnest, in depth on qt which if they don't make any official announcement we will hear more about that in the minutes. there are widespread opinions with the majority saying it is not going to be announced at this meeting. the fed is saying we are slowing the pace of qt. they discussed it to their are a few outliers that say it could be announced today and start as soon as may. more are saying it will be announced in june. the market, there are so many moving parts and that is one of them. what to they have to say about qt that does not come in any statement? i'm sure chairman powell is going to be asked about it. katie: talk about the other thing the market cares about and that is right cuts. i'm curious to see what you are hearing from your sources about the sequencing. do we need to see the first rate cut before we can see the qt taper start? liz: that was the old school fed. they have informe

expectations are so high. will we see the bazooka that people are expecting? will we see a policy pivot? what about the gdp target? yvonne: that is probably the single most important thing to watch according to our bloomberg economics analyst. whether the growth target will be maintained at 5% and if that is the case, how will they deliver it? they will have to unleash more policy to reach those targets. around 5% is what we are watching in terms of language. that is still a consensus. is this going to spur a turnaround and continue the rally that we see in chinese equities? the npc tends to lift chinese equities. but it is a high bar. >> and the room for disappointment is great. bear in mind there is data out of china that has been disappointing. housing not improving that much despite the measures put in place. the bar is high and disappointment could be coming. yvonne: and then we have u.s. inflation numbers. that is what is dictating the bond smart -- the bond markets. no surprise that we saw prices rise the most in a year given how hot the cpi print was a

tamp down expectations of rate cuts message to markets please "curb your enthusiasm", i expect moreomorrow, when -- the when the statement is released and they release their -- quarterly economic projections, i expect the part of the projections that show meaning participants forecast for funds rate the end of next few years, i expect that to shift up a tad, i expect chair powell to continue to emphasize as he has in recent weeks, that they don't have enough data yet to cut rates or to know that they are going to cut rates next few meetings. what they really need, what really ought to be front and center for them to convey the degree uncertainty about the rate pack going forward, it could be -- a situation where rate cuts later this year are warranted but need to prepare markets for the possibility inflation stalled out where it is now doesn't come down to 2% agency they hope expect, as is consistent with target, by the end of the year still might not be -- um -- ready for rate cut i think important thing to keep in mind, go ahead. maria: no, no. please continue. jeffrey: the import

>> we are expecting very little change at all from the rba. at one of the concerns of this week as we think we know what all of the central banks are going to do, and especially markets think they know. central-bank policy moved to a different drum than do markets. the rba toned down its hawkish bias but kept it. if there was some expectation that it would go fully neutral. on the one hand to the australian did it would argue more toward the idea they could go neutral, but the rba is expected to be quite concerned at the stickiness in u.s. inflation in particular, so that makes it extremely unlikely they will change their policy settings, so they are expected to hold interest rates at their current high end signal they are willing to hike again if the data requires it. annabelle: that was stephen engle and garfield reynolds in sydney. china's economy and focus as we look ahead to its monthly data dump in the race to hit beijing's ambitions 5% growth target. we will have a preview coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: -- annabelle: taking a lo

when it comes to fed speak and expectations, u.s. cpi firmly in focus at this point as bond traders will be watching the next big move. we have fresh inflation data, and that will feed through to when the fed might start cutting rates, and it comes on the back of what was ultimately a confusing picture given by the jobs report on friday. our next guest says it was sectors when it comes to the equity markets will be supported by positive earnings revisions in the next 12 months. let's bring in a portfolio manager at tribeca it partners. you see more opportunities going forward? >> we think the equity market is not doing good as many have suggested and we think the fundamentals of good particularly for some of the cyclical sectors. evaluations may be extract for growth names particularly ai and tech focus, but we think the majority is doing quite well. the latest reporting season is demonstrated that analysts were too conservative. it the earnings recession or consumer recession is not as bad as expected. we will see slowdown in consum

>> did not expect this one. i thought we would be focused on monetary policy, but you have got powell saying this. the backdrop here is that the fed has been working on some changes to some policies are around capital questions were banks essentially, wanting them to hold more in capital. this is stemming back to the global financial crisis and broader reforms around the banks, but really picked up steam last year in the wake of the collapse of svb, other concerns about banking stability. obviously there is been a huge push back on wall street, especially the big 80 banks we do not need to hold that much. we are worried that will slow down corporate lending. i think what powell is saying today because there is been the push and pull over whether the fed will go forward with its big plan, you just heard from that soundbite derek he was saying there could be pretty broad changes to the fed's plan. he is following that up so they can read something they can all agree on, but i think it does indicate there is a lot

and powell has said, we expect this to come down, we expect it to happen.hem at bay from hiking again, and also something that makes them say, you know what, as powell said in his testimony, we're not far from where we need to be in terms of inflation. they expect the numbers to get there. i do think they need the numbers to get there, though. and rick actually makes a really important point about what the american public is looking at versus what the fed is actually aiming at. the goals are the same. americans want lower prices, the fed wants stable prices. the story here is that the fed has to worry about inflation expectations. they've been relatively well anchored. if you turn around every month and say, you know what, prices were up 3%. well, what do i think is going to happen next month? prices will go up 3% and i'll act accordingly. what the fed is going to want to do here is get that back down to 2% and have the public believe that, in fact, and that's why jamie dimon was talking about the fed's credibility, because it's really the fed's credibility

what are you expecting mr biden to say? this union. what are you expecting mr biden to say?e responsibility _ biden to say? this is the responsibility mr - biden to say? this is the responsibility mr biden l biden to say? this is the - responsibility mr biden takes on biden to say? this is the _ responsibility mr biden takes on as president but not as a candidate for re—election. this is one of the biggest stages he will have to speak to the american people before the election. the other is probably the conventions over the summer. he has twojobs, won in style conventions over the summer. he has two jobs, won in style and conventions over the summer. he has twojobs, won in style and one substance. style, it is his biggest job that he needs to dispel the myth that his age is an impediment to him doing hisjob. americans reward confidence and competence in leadership. we are talking about the smooth delivery, dexterity on his feet, the ability to bat mac any commentary or reactions that may be elicited from congressman does while speaking. on the substance side, i expect him to

what are the expectations here?> i think the issue with this february data is that during the extended lunar new year holiday, the bloomberg economics argument there is that a lot of it will be elevated by the fact that people are spending more in the holiday, we saw that with some of the earlier data, it probably contributed to an uptick in food prices so that's why you might see the cpi gauge creep out of negative territory for the first time in five months. even in doing that, they sang somewhere around 0.1%, you've got a broader economic consensus of 0.3%. these are still close to the deflationary line so i think it is safe to say that the inflationary pressures are continuing in china and we are not seeing much in the way of what it would mean to chart a meaningful turnaround for that. we need to see more in terms of erasing the concerns around deflation right now. paul: in terms of a policy response, do we anticipate that, or at what point do we start staring down japan cell inflation? >> that's been in debate

he's expected to be reiterating patience.i said on budget day currently at 1.27 versus the u.s. dollar. interpret up # .2%. bit coin 65,000. plus, 66,000 after going the fresh record and retreating currently up 4% in the session. former president donald trump is sweeping republican primaries moving ever closer to clinching the party's nomination. nikki haley did score one win her first in the state of washington. take a listen. >> it was super tuesday for a reason. this is a big one. and they tell me the pundits and otherwise that there's never one like this. there's never been anything so conclusive. this was an amazing -- an amazing night, an amazing day. >> meanwhile president doo biden issued statement saying "trump is driven by grievance and gift, focused on his own revenge and retribution, no the american people." the quote from president joe biden the focus and shifting to policy, the market reaction, your takeaways? >> a couple of flash points. the commentary is going to be front and center not just with china. the 60

you have hotter than expected u.s. inflation from the cpi and ppi readings, then the activity data that suggests a cooling coming through. so do we need to temper these expectations around foot cut -- around fed cuts or repricing for the right amount of moves? willem: i think we are pricing for the runaround of moves. -- for the right amount of moves. when i am encouraged by is two things. one, when you look beyond this next year or what is happening in 2024, the long end, the long dot, the fedex rotation, the fed is pricing in 3.5%. they are thinking 2.5%. that gives you upside for bond returns. the other bit is real yield is again at 2% for the 10 year and that is too high for the level of growth where we are. so we think that will come down. annabelle: talk us through how that plays into equities. willem: on the equity side i care more about the growth element which is a positive. the earnings as well, especially in the u.s. you have two countries where earnings are positive to u.s. and japan. the inflation data, i

we expect some sort of pullback? >> we have been seeing signs about that potentially playing out from the friday session. what happens with nvidia after a piggly -- pretty big reversal. adjacent to that, it will be very interesting to see if this is the peak of these bubble stocks. is it going to be followed in previous months by yet another record high as opposed to the bursting of the bubble? who can tell? bank of america says they see little evidence to support the concerns on wall street. they say the market has legs. this started last year. as sharp as it has been, that doesn't reflect conditions we have seen in previous cycles. really talking about the idea that sentiment levels are mutual. not bullish compared to what we saw in 1999. there was strong earnings and the resilient economy. and more room for gains. >> two different sides of the coin. let's get more with mark cranfield. we can get to the fed inflation in just a moment. you have bank of america saying the market has legs. >> i think if you want to pi

prices not expecting a spike. target is in sight and ueda sees the virtuous economic cycle strengthening. japanese jgb benchmark is down close to three basis points. let's bring in chief economist in tokyo for the latest analysis. your topline response, they've done it since 2007, the last bank two and negative interest rates. the significance of this? >> finally we are through with it. the economy has recovered and we have all of see normalization. that was important on the ground. tom: what do you make of market reaction? they seem to be assessing a doll that she hike that is being emphasized. the market reaction with the yen down and debt bid, is that rational? >> it is rational, but more so the bank of japan side. the most important thing was to avoid a market reaction. yen jumps becoming higher and some people are disappointed. this is what the bank of japan was hoping for. tom: how do you see the boj steering policy? where do you see the rates? >> normalization is one and done. this is a clear signal and sho

although those expectations have moved on until summer, but do you think the expectations are too high? >> i think they might be a little high. usually these things don't go the other way. i think you have the rate cut with the consensus is 75 basis points for somewhere in there. equity investors will hold tight until they find out the truth. >> a lot of experts are looking at what the inflation data is telling us with conflicting labor market reports coming out and thinking this may be a boring fed. we may not hear departure from jay powell. what is your expectation? >> that may be a good thing. we have been in a lower environment for a long time mta that. >> we have seen the rally broadening out past the magnificent seven. we have pullback with tesla and pullback with apple. where are you putting money this week? >> we are long-term discipline investors. we are not making big trades on the week-to-week basis. i like seeing the rotation from the magnificent seven into that broader equity space. i view opportunities later on in the year with fixed income. if we see rates go lower, we e

he told me he's not expecting big spending from the government. 1 expecting big spending from the governmentasically _ government. i see it as basically is _ government. i see it as basically is rallying - government. i see it as basically is rallying the | basically is rallying the troops to double down on xi jinping's goalfor a technocratic sort of jinping's goal for a technocratic sort of software and hardware driven economy that's going to conquer the world. and i think he's kind of dreaming and overcoming the difficult problems within china that requires a different path, and he's not going in that direction.— and he's not going in that direction. ~ ., ~ ., direction. also talking about the chinese _ direction. also talking about the chinese government - direction. also talking about. the chinese government having limited options in trying to stimulate the economy. they have among _ stimulate the economy. they have among the _ stimulate the economy. they have among the highest - stimulate the economy. tia: have among the highest debt stimulate the economy. tta: have among the highest de

expected.real cash earnings, actually less than expected, but take a look at how we have been watching the boj trades play out this week. we are seeing banks outperforming benchmarks. jgb yields have been up. the yen is at a one-month high and the options market is signaling bullish yen bets near the highest of the year. the bigger the yen bullish bets so that is a pretty clear signal that. let's bring in the associate director for international economics and current -- currency strategy. great to have you with us. in terms of boj tightening and the implications for currency? >> you were just mentioning the labor cash earnings results from japan earlier in your program and i think the results are probably pretty positive for the bank of japan who is looking for the wage price cycle, in particular the simple adjusted scheduled wage growth result is pretty robust at 2%. that will pave the way for the bank of japan to tighten policy in the coming months. we will get the important wage result. so t

what are we expecting to hear? >> gtc is the development conference where it unveils new products and partnerships, and there are a lot of expectation that it will unveil its next ai chip and platform that will speed up the ai model training, so a lot of the specs are going to be analyzed by analysts to see how big of a jump is this and how expensive could this be and what kind of change will that bring? it will be key to watch of these aspects to see how this moves nvidia going forward. tom: from eight confluence few people paid a much attention to to a conference been nicknamed ai woodstock, talk to us about the context of this and the focus and scrutiny of the event this week? >> exactly, it is fair to even say a lot of people in the u.s. did not know what nvidia was a few years back, but with the advent of chatgpt where ai has become part of everyone's world. i had teenagers to quebec that day who said, mom, there is this new ai thing and it can do my homework for me. behind that are these nvidia ai chips which

yes, and there is _ expectation get out of hand. yes, and there is a _ expectation get out of hand.e is a notable _ expectation get out of hand. 1a: and there is a notable difference in the tone that andrew bailey has been using in recent months compared to the fed and christine lagarde have been doing, but i think there was a bit of a shift in tone today and in some of his recent speeches. whilst he said the bank of england was not ready to cut rates yet, he did say there was progress made in inflation and the fact those two voters voted to keep interest rates on hold, even the most hawkish members of the bank of england and acknowledging that there has been some gains in the war against inflation so the bank of england really is just the latest in a line of central banks to say we've got inflation but we are winning the war. it got inflation but we are winning the war. , ., ., war. it is worth underlining that whatever the _ war. it is worth underlining that whatever the bank _ war. it is worth underlining that whatever the bank of _ war. it is worth underlining that whatever the

i wasn't expecting that one.orried about it either way. >> i think there are other headlines on the docket for today. jobs report. we have been talking about that all morning. it is moving the market today over the state of the union. >> right now, you are looking at what moves you want to make going into march. we have guidance from jay powell. the cuts are coming, but it is not clear when. how are you moving portfolios? what are you looking at right now? what considerations do you have? >> i think we can look at what's been going on for the last few months. the fourth quarter earnings season has been strong. it is really good evidence that should support stocks moving forward. we look at the magnificent seven as we have been talking about for weeks now with a lot of the stocks are not really doing well. tesla, apple, google are all down. that may be a sign that leadership is broadening. maybe an opportunity for investors to diversify. of course, you have been talking about bonds today. it might be an opportunit

. >> good morning, maria. , nikki haley expected to suspend her campaign last night's contest was herinal shot to challenge former president trump for the gop nomination, ultimately she only ended up winning one state vermont not a viable challenge to trump expected to suspend her campaign at ten a.m. charleston south carolina not expected to endorse former president trump instead "wall street journal" reports will encourage trump to win over her supporters biden campaign reacting to contest in a memo expect many haley supporters to support them in november vote democrat, now with trump laser focused on november campaign making a pitch about abortion quote the result of of last night's super tuesday contest cemented what we've nope donald trump limps into election as wounded unpopular candidate joe biden only candidate in history has beaten donald trump will do so again missing any mention of immigration trump making a big part of his general election pitch. >> we had the safest best unjust now worst numbers probably in the history of the world persistent is sad to see ways happening

expectations are very low. when we look at it is embedded in s & p 500 price expectations, it is for somewhere between 0% and 2% earnings growth over 2024. the consensus of analysts is telling us we should get more than 10% based upon their forecast, and their forecast has proven to be more bearish, so there is significantly more earnings power people are concerned about, and that is about market sentiment being driven more by macro headwinds and concerned about the macro outlook and with the fed is going to do, where is it a reality earnings are improving and improving quite quickly. remember the s&p 500 was ended earnings recession until the second half of 2023 the next several earnings growth comparisons are easy for the index. it would be look across to get also see earnings breadth hit it s recent low back in 2023. as more companies participate as we start to see by the fourth quarter, more companies participating in an earnings really does generally lead into stronger earnings emerging. tom: a constructiv

what do we expect today?been fast tracked and that has been the defining feature of the process in which this has happened. if we see it fully past today it will have happened in less than 50 days since first introduced. today we expect a second reading. it will kick off this morning at 9:00 today and then it will move into the third reading and then if all goes as expected the bill will pass. it has been very fast. today is another opportunity for lawmakers in the legislative council to give feedback and discuss some elements of the bill. but i cannot stress how quickly this has happened. typically this process would take months, sometimes a bill with this complexity would take years before going through all those procedures. >> what has been the response from the business community? >> i think to some extent some elements of article 23 have been a lived reality given the similarities in some parts between 23 and the beijing national security law already being passed and businesses had already gotten used to

a lot of your clients have called you about your expectations what are you expecting to hear from jayowell? in your mind do you expect them to deviate at all from what he said at the fomc meeting or what we heard from fed officials? >> he's trying to strike more of a dovish tone. we're on record for that being a mistake. i think the fed has completely mischaracterized how low interest or how reduced interest rate-sensitive the economy is and the need for rate cuts inflation is going to come in stronger i think he's going to signal the rate cuts, but the economy is closing the window for it. the bond market is going to be it's been disappointing. it's going to continue to be disappointed they may be able to squeeze off one or two, but the economy is going to close that window there's an election cycle. >> you think he's going to turn more dovish? we've heard wait and see now you say when it comes to the hill, he gets a little more dovish >> i think he 's in the wait and see. he's got a dovish tone to him. i that've had to admit the data is coming in stronger, it's more durable, inflati

rates are, we expect, to be cut in the short term. the number of rate cuts, i think, will be less impactful if it's more or less affecting travel >> what would be the downturn if that were to be the case would that be a downturn that's really the point where you could jump in again. >> markets have led a strong rally the last couple of months so valuations are quite stretched particularly in the u.s., but that could continue. looking at tech stocks, all performing really, really strongly the fundamentals are there corporate earnings are strong. so developed market, the growth market is a bit softer, but overall we are quite positive on equities. >> do you see a sense of selectivism coming through with the tech players not just in europe but around the world when one looks at what has been shifting markets do you think a little more selectivism comes into play now? >> potentially as i said, really, it's tag, anything ai-related, that's what's driving returns an element is trend but the dynamics happening in market we like diversified p

a lot of pressure i and expectation on island. what are your thoughts? i and expectation on island.thoughts? i think they have really bounced back— your thoughts? i think they have really bounced back after - your thoughts? i think they have really bounced back after the - your thoughts? i think they have i really bounced back after the rugby world cup. i really feel that they have been very cohesive. i think they're actually a lot better and that they have learnt a lot from that they have learnt a lot from that quarter final. that they have learnt a lot from that quarterfinal. i do not think they will be complacent. i think they will be complacent. i think they are going to go out and give it their best, play their best game, and if they do that they will be very hard to beat. i know england have a very good quality team, but i learned have the cohesiveness i think, and they have the momentum more so than england. ijust think they have no fear going to twickenham and they will go out and play their best, and i think that is going to be a big factor. as well as just getting everythi

it seems a very few people are expecting inflation, they are expecting cuts and expect them to continueink there hasn't been enough of the possibility of a truly resilient economy baked into this market? priya: i think the bond market might be pricing that in. if they actually accelerate we the bond market pricing pricing the endpoint after the cuts around 3.5. that to me is consistent with soft landing. yes u.s. rates can rise 25 or 30 basis points but where are equities? the soft landing starts to be questioned which is price to perfection in every market. if the fed can cut anymore next year, i think some of the risk premiums in some of the riskiest part of the market is too low at that point. real rates will be high. does it mean a hard landing in 26? i think the risk asset complex might be more at risk in sort of reacceleration. jonathan: maybe you are constructive on treasuries further out on the curve but less so on corporate credit. is that fair? priya: we are very much in a soft landing and if the fed does deliver on these cuts next year, the cuts this year if the economy slows

let's look at the data expectations. is an expectation the data market is pulling with an estimated 190 k additions in jobs. softer than what we saw of the prior print of 350 three k, but above what jerome powell said would be the neutral pace of payrolls. the unemployment rate expected to stay unchanged. that does it from new york. same time, same place next week. this was "real yield" on bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪ thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh i think he's having a midlife crisis i'm not. ahhhhhh you got us t-mobile home internet lite. after a week of streaming they knocked us down... ...to dial up speeds. like from the 90s. great times. all i can do say is that my life is pre-- i like watching the puddles gather rain. -hey, your mom and i procreated to tha

double what was expected.t will not be good news for the federal reserve the idea they want continued good news on inflation. the core rate is up .4% every .6% rise the prior month. year over year goes from a .9% increase to a 1.6% increase, a large move. the cordial stop move. -- the core does not move. the regular core with food and energy taken out from 2%. we have issues there. if you want to have something good to look at take a look at jobless claims. they faulted 209,000. last week 217,000 revised to 210,000 and continuing claims fall a lot from the initial report last week. the initial report was overstated. we are at 1,811,000. last week's revised down to 1,794,000. the narrative that it is getting harder to find a job seems to have gone away along with the narrative that inflation will get to 2% quickly. jonathan: as we like to say, that is the right kind of downside surprised. something for everyone in this state -- in this data. still positive on the s&p. up a similar amount on the nasdaq. in the b

we expect almost 14% cagr over the next three years.t 1000 plus aircrafts which have been preordered. 25,000 rooms which are still being billed for hotels. although the market is looking bullish from a tourism standpoint. haslinda: what trends are you seeing, where are indians traveling within the country, what are you anticipating? prahlad: domestic tourism has picked up quite a bit. we also have a lot of visa free destinations across india, which is doing well. you have countries like dubai, singapore and thailand which are doing well for indian tourists. you also have sri lanka, we have now malaysia, philippines, all of these are picking up, nepal as well. all of these are doing quite well. you also have a huge boom of domestic tourism in india. the indian government has been bullish promoting multiple tourism destinations. there are 76 tourism circuits in india. multiple pilgrimage destinations as well. all in all, quite a have distorted. haslinda: what spending patterns are you seeing when you look at the markets at record highs, w

always good to see you. >> good morning. >> no decision expected operates, but a lot expected on theay powell meeting. what was it mean when it comes to the tone and how they see rate cuts going forward? >> sure. this is a pivotal meeting. what we're anticipating is the dot plot still holds the forecast. you need two lenders to raise the forecast. i think there's an easy way of saying you're going to see a more hawkish fed coming out today. that's why i think it's so pivotal. it's raisinging some doubts how quick will u they can get inflation back to target. that will be the key they're watching out for from powell and the press conference. it's going to be, as i said, very important for markets today and what comes up after this meeting. >> seema, i know you're focused on that higher than expected cpi, headline of 3.2%. i want to ask you. jay powell on capitol hill said they're going to continue to look at the inflation reports, and coming up in a week and a have, we have pce, which we often call the preferred gauge. >> right. and the report we've had so far gives an indication of w

garf, expected to be a boring meeting, more or less met expectations.you look at some aspects of the reaction, was it may be more dovish than expected? garfield: short-term dovish i think is the key message. really important moment for markets was when powell pushed back against the idea that the january, february inflation readings, while robust, there were bumps in the road. there wasn't anything that indicated the road was about to change in its direction. given that in the last two weeks or so when we had the quiet period, there were strong expectations the fed would seriously consider increasing its dot plot, taking one of those projected rate cuts out from this year, that was a relief. i think in particular for equities, maybe a little less so for the bond market. he also stressed he doesn't see rates going back to where they were in previous times, they will likely be higher, and they did take a rate cut out of the 2025 projections. annabelle: that short-term dovish sentiment has been giving a boost to stocks, what we are seeing for asia today in

khoi, the expectations of the people. what do the officials, especially the elected officials , have in the islamic council, mr. doctor? if i say the first sentence, then i will express these expectations that i, as a small child of the children of this great nation , have taken off my hat many times in different periods of past history, in the last few decades, in front of the greatness of these people, this time i would like to do the same. let me announce that one more time . i take off my hat because of the depth of vision that the people of iran have and the depth of struggle that was done in this election that happened . to be chosen especially those to prepare a list and actually introduce the program. for example , to list 10 to 15 knots of the country and open these knots in the next 4 years, if one of the reasons why people in the world do not participate in elections it is not according to iran's will. one of the reasons is that people are upset by the parties, political groups , political currents, political f

indeed, inflation expectations are unanchored, this is a matter for us... the concern, let’s say, isy their elevated level, but also their unanchoredness, the fact that they are now high and not anchored is a consequence of really high inflation and a long-term deviation of inflation from the target, and what measures can there be, the only measure is to reduce inflation, confidently reducing inflation close to our goal and maintaining it. at this level, we said earlier, in order to anchor inflation expectations, it is necessary, firstly, for inflation to be close to targets for a long time, and secondly, for market participants to have experience when they understand that despite the fact that for external reasons, for obvious reasons, when inflation begins to accelerate, the central bank pursues a policy to reduce it to the target, this is the most important thing, but at the same time i would like to note that... we also said from the very beginning that we are creating opportunities for such an unlocking of assets, but this is a voluntary process, both on the part of residents an

and now we know venezuelan authorities are lets out their prisoners, and we're expecting prisoners tore two alleged members of venezuelan gang tren de aragua are suspects in the border tactic on twob new york city polices off services in january. >> how serious. >> very serious all know about murder of laken riley reaction by the president to it was -- um -- really disgusting. we saw president trump meet with family embrace the family we saw president biden barrel mentions it in state of the union speech, and has had no outreach to the family. the alleged murderer is from venezuela, as you said, we're seeing, maduro turned back planes trying to return venezuelans to their own country as we turn them back, we turn so very few back out of that 330,000 -- 330,000 only 834 have been returned or turned back, so we are seeing now prison gangs come into yu customs and border protection i identitied tattoos they have to try to help their agents identify more we know being sent to our country. but we're getting, no help from this administration. we have had no help from this administration. in

the wall street still expects the fed to cut this summer despite the higher than expected inflation.> we think the fed is lyiikelyo start easing in june, but we changed our call to three from four previously. inflation has been a little higher than anticipated, particularly in january, but we still think we're on track to get to the low 2% range in the coming months and we think the fed will look at this as an opportunity to begin bringing rates down from what are restrictive levels. >> cnbc's steve liesman has more on the fed projection for the year. >> the december forecast expected gdp at 1.4%, but the economy is running faster than that in the first quarter. core pce down to 2.4%. the fed funds at 4.6%. the median projection at 4.6. if two of the four officials decide to cut, it will cut twice. the question is how to think about the past two months of inflation. is this a sign of stalling or noise? is progress going to be delayed into next? joe brusuelas says there are risks to the outlook with the economic continuing to out performance consume ares are still resilient. t futures

this was as expected. it doesn't seem to matter so much if you're looking at chinese bonds because it seems there is still continued speculation that we will get easing somewhere down the line. equities showing a bit of positivity coming through. today surged the most since six months ago. this is on the back of a report that nvidia is considering buying its memory chips. really showing how nvidia reaches across the supply chains. as we count down to the fed, let's take a look at how the currencies are faring on the korean won. we see a bit of strength. pretty tight ranges all things considered. it is post boj day. this is lower against the euro since 2000. it is all about the hawks on the dubs. >> think you very much indeed. with the focus in asia still on the fed as well. and there is potential cross in the terminal right now. this will by the biologic site in the u.s. for 1.2 early u.s. dollars in cash. also point to invest swiss franc to upgrade that facility they are also bringing out midterm guidance