those numbers tell a story the commodity is up 11%, 12% and the energy shares xle dominated by exxon chevron only at 5.6 look at the three-month performance. next slide oil up 20 and xle the internal stocks up only 10.4. what about if we just start the meter and start the story from the day of the peak before covid. look at the next slide this is looking at the peak in the s&p before the covid sell-off february 19th, 2020. you're looking at oil was at $54 a barrel and it's at $74 a barrel now well, that's up 40%. the energy complex, the s&p sector is unchanged. so you have the commodity well above where it was before the pandemic and energy is essentially where it was that's not particularly encouraging. so, take a look at a two-panel chart. the top here is xle and the bottom is relative performance to the s&p what we know is relative performance peaked back in march and here we are basically about to be in july 1. so, all in energy delivered four months of our performance from november to march compared to the and nothing but pain before that and hurt sibefore that and since. now fell back

he was talking exxon, chevron and conoco those entities make up nearly 50% of the xle overall i think we only need to look at one of those companies, the largest, exxon, to get some sense of where the fundamental trouble might lie here with their cash flow, dividends are one possibility, debt repayment is another, and investment, essentially, and depleting reserves is the final choice these companies have to make unfortunately, even with oil at these levels, they can't actually satisfy all three of these. exxon is trying to maintain their dividend their debt levels are actually above the target ratios that they previously articulated, and they can't really afford to see some increase in their debt expense, and of course they are not replacing all of their reserves which, of course, if you don't do that, what that means is lower production in the future and i think that is one of the overhangs that you're seeing amongst the integrated names in particular as carter pointed out, this represented a relatively larger portion of the etf if you're paying for a range-bound thesis, usually wha

we got three board members on exxon. chevron got told to increase their disclosure by their shareholders then royal shell was told by the regulator to up their efforts in moving to a low carbon output. huge day the beginning of the new era it was a new day in terms of shareholder activism they will work together if the board is withdrawn and the management is willing to engage with the shareholders. exxon was laggard in the industry we wanted to get it to turn around you will begin to see that with the new board. >> chris, is it a new model for you guys or is this is a one-off? are you looking at other potential targets? >> brian, it is not a one-off. this is a new element or a new step up in the shareholder act activism we have been engaging with corporations for decdecades. mostly behind the scenes and quiet discussions. if you actually step up and get in a direct engagement and change the board, we have the power to team up with other people and do that i think that's a landscape change not only for us, but for other institut

this, of course, comes just days after some of the biggest oil companies in the world, exxon, chevron, royal dutch shell were all hit with court judgments and shareholder votes on the same day, all efforts to try to force those huge companies into a future where they're effectively not drilling for oil anymore, let alone in protected arctic wilderness. some of the biggest oil companies on earth now facing serious pressure and serious binding constraints on them that are designed to force them into becoming effectively renewable energy companies. not just drillers anymore. so the protection of the arctic national wildlife refuge coming at a time that is particularly volatile and interesting in terms of what's happening with the big oil companies and their accountability on climate stuff, super interesting, super interesting timing. and interestingly, that big news from secretary of the interior deb haaland, that comes tonight on the same night that voters in new mexico are choosing her replacement in congress. she was a member of the house of representatives when president biden tapped

exxon and chevron are rocketing because the price of oil continues to jump.ultiyear highs with some big traders globally saying $100 is not out of this world. of course, opec, new production has yet to come on stream, so we are warned by those same traders that there could be a slip. that is sending part of the markets stronger. consumer discretionary and tech is the weak spot. that 10-year yield hovering around 1.5. will the fed have anything to say in the press conference? perhaps that will give us some insight into the beginning of thinking about the end of quantitative easing. we have been talking a lot about lordstown. it says it has adequate funds for production through may 2022. it also says it is not seeking to raise money, has reconfirmed orders in the last two weeks. lordstown very much in order as some executives have parted. it would appear that the short-sellers are circling this one as well. matt: including the chief executive officer, as well as the chief financial officer. those are two really important leadership posts. there are questions ab

you had announcements from shell, exxon and chevron which indicate is very difficult to see large-scale cap x. you look at fid in the oil industry right now you in 2021, it is the lowest on record we expect to get back to pre-covid levels later this year that's really supporting that bullish outlook on energy and commodity. >> you mentioned the green transition that is something that goldman has been big on. we're in the middle of the global super cycle in commodities especially with raw materials for transition into copper you point out traditionally the swing factor for many of the metals would be chinese demand that is no longer the case you don't see china to be the marginal factor any more why is that so >> absolutely. the key point here is the bullish thesis both tactically and longer term is predicated on scarce difficult in the develdev developed market led recovery. when we look at china more specifically, it has now or it lost its position as the marginal consumer of commodities, which is the west, and you can think about china being the incumbent consumer it is that base load

the likes of exxon and chevron keeping pace with the oil price at 40%, a huge move.capitalize on this, and that is weatherford international. it is one of the top five oil field services companies which faced bankruptcy in 2019 while struggling with huge debt and and it ability to generate free cash flow ash and an inability to generate free cash flow -- and an inability to generate free cash flow. it is going to begin trading today on the nasdaq. it is up about 14% on the day. joining me now is the ceo, girish saligram. girish, what are you going to do now? what does the business look like today? you are less about $6.2 billion in debt. what is the business today versus back in 2019? girish: thank you so much for having me on. today is a pivotal moment for the company, and we are very excited by this. we are going to continue what we have been working on for the past several months, which is really all about driving sustainability from a profit ability and cash flow focus. we had some terrific momentum. we had a good 2020, where we delivered $78 million in free cash

the oil industry was built by americans and chevron and exxon.nch companies there, spanish companies that really this is an american industry and now that sanctions are in place, they can't get sparle parts. and getting pair parts and only so far you can go with that and one of the reasons that while the chinese and the russians and iranians, they can't get production back up. it's about 500,000 barrels a day. they hope to get it to 1.5 million barrels. that is a target. they talk about getting to 5 million barrels which is in excess of their historical high. that is a dream. they can't do it on its own. the only way they can do it if investors can come in, capitalists from the united states and other countries can move in with their technological expertise. but a lot of things have to happen. venezuela is a humanitarian disaster and a deal to get to that point is a long way off. caroline: this is years in the making and trying to talk to the capital markets. but a lot of brokering has to go on. >> absolutely. the question is joe biden. donald tr

it is the fact that these oil ceos and exxon and chevron in particular are embracing, look r for opportunitieso participate in new technologies that could really accelerate the pace of decarbonization and what are some of those? carbon capture is basic opportunity. we newable natural gas is a big opportunity. who can pull that off? a lot of people think that potentially that could be some of the big majors. if they do, they will accelerate their growth profile as well >> final quick question to kind of illustrate what seem like a strange paradigm for the stock you have major divestment pushing up oil prices for a key sort of input to the business cycle and something that consumers pay a lot for every day. that's got to lead to demand destruction at some point. are consumers or businesses who use oil and oil by products going to push back on these higher prices or are they going to be able to take it? >> we never come out of pandemic before to see what the impact on demand will be so far we have seen is there's tremendous demand for oil related products and we're probably just getting started.

we've seen shareholders get board seats on exxon and chevron.e most effective way to engage industry? you were a state attorney general, would you have filed a lawsuit in the state of michigan against an oil company, or would you be pursuing the shareholder strategy? >> or i think that -- honestly, these companies are seeing where the globe is going. they're seeing that their biggest customers are demanding that they produce energy in a cleaner way. so they want to see things like this solution of adding technology to remove co2 from their production, as part of the solution. so to me the carrots that the president has put into his plan are really carrots that the private sector is asking for, even the fossil fuel companies. i won't say all of them clearly, but a lot of them, the big oil companies have all -- not all. but many of them have the same goals of getting to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. they're not going to be able to do it without the technology that will allow them to remove co2 from their production. but, again, the president

exxon, chevron, boeing, just a few of the names that are in the green moving up. of florida. congressman, i know you just met with former president trump. did he offer any hint that he might be running for any elected office in the future? can you tell us? >> no, he didn't give a hint. i will tell you even if he did i can't tell you. that is something really for president trump to decide and release on his own time, but the president was in good spirit. he is in great health. he was looking wonderful. he shot a 71 the day i was with him. i never shot a 71 a day in my life so i'm jealous. we talked about foreign policy and things in the country. stuart: hold on a second, congressman, former president trump, i believe is 74, 75 and he shot a 71? not many people can shoot under their age when they get into their mid 7. did he really shoot a 71 for a fact. he said it clearly in the room. he had confidence and swagger to back him up. who am i to challenge it. every governor shot i hit on the tee shanks right. i will not say a word about it. stuart: can you tell us what

we hedge in our portfolios xle, that's etf, exxon, chevron, so forth.doubt, this wins of the worry some signs. we've seen it before when oil prices go higher, they pass it onto consumers. we see near $70 a barrel so it's not surprising, the last weekend aaa is probably going to report a major amount of traffic. i think that's good news. nice to see demand increase. that's overall positive. supply, hearing about opec and you have iran as the wild card, of course the administration doesn't like fossil fuel, so look, if we're going up because of demand, i can live with that. that's what we all want. if it's going up because of supply disruptions, because of opec, because of the administration, that's worrisome, because those are harder to fix. those are institutions that are difficult to change their minds. maria: okay. we want to bring in nancy tengler here, joining the conversation this morning, all morning long. than circumstance great to have you. -- nancy, great to have you. let me ask you what you're seeing in the markets here, from laffer tangler. t

i like exxon i don't like it enough to own it as a stock though. i choose to have chevrona stack. in the past i liked exxon. i think exxon has to prove it still to me that they're going to be disciplined. that's what a lot of this is all about with the changes in the board room, is will they be more disciplined. they're saying yes obviously bank of america agrees >> pete, forgive me, i hope i'm not putting you on the spoct. maybe you know this, maybe you don't. do you know what calls are shorter dated, longer dated, what the actual numbers are behind the calls you have in exxon? >> oh, sure. what i do oftentimes with exxon, scott, is it is just a different way of looking at things so i don't like to be in etfs. i would rather be in an individual stock whether or not exxonmobil hit is not really the case. it is xle. when people are buying huge calls in something like the xle, when you look at 40% of that representation is either chevron or exxon with that 40% level, i move over and i do trades that are oftentimes over in something like exxon that's what i did here, and they

but hey, those are representative in these big stocks, these chevron's and exxons, but additionally tedl do better than bonds and that is the relative comparison for investors. there is not that many investors that were choosing between owning uber and chevron. matt: do you care about the economic reopening? it has been powering stocks in europe for the last couple of weeks. the s&p up to 4200. we are seeing restaurants and movie theaters open up and come back. the grateful dead minas phil lesch and jerry going back on tour with john mayer, playing in new york in august. everything is coming back. does it matter to the stocks you are buying? >> it does -- dave: it doesn't matter in a crucial way like cruise lines, but a big percentage of coca-cola's business is on-site entertainment. it makes a difference to gasoline consumption. it makes a difference to all kinds of broad shopping experiences like walgreens. it will matter. it is an interesting thing on the margin, investing is often on the margins of the business has got to be really great at a lot of fast companies, but it was really

energy stocks, material stocks, industrial stocks weaker you have chevron, exxon, goldman sachs down tech is helping so you've got intel up and apple up. but we need more from the cyclical stocks that are outperforming throughout the month. value versus growth will be the big debate value tends to be cyclical stocks we're past the early cycle stage where cyclicals do really well we're in a mid-cycle stage that's why we're seeing these big tech names that have been doing much better in june versus earlier in the year. we'll see if that continues. as for the second half of the year, the global story is going to continue improving. and we've seen relaxation on inflation. so far the fed is getting its way. we'll see if that changes. the main paradigm for stocks still remains peak everything. that argues for a somewhat sideways market. the p/e ratio on earnings is 20 times. that's a lot the average quote from the s&p is about 6% a year it's going to be great for 2022, but it's expensive what we need to keep an eye on is make sure that we don't have any problems with two big things that ca

becoming better corporate citizens and it makes me like them i give you those two, pioneer nat and chevron. exxon, what can i say? with that board of directors i am seriously considering that one as a good stock to own >> see we were discussing this and i know you guys on ""squawk on the street" were as well over the last few weeks, that it was a water shed moment. >> yes >> what engine no. 1 was able to do at exxon and get those three board seats. historic, obviously, and may result in more people feeling comfortable buying those stocks. dr. j, you own bp shares you have exxon calls and you are in calls in the xle itself obviously you have the view that tom lee has that trade is going higher >> yeah. global demand, scott, is coming back huge. i mean you look at what opec said, and they're playing this about as well as the fed is playing their talking about talking, because they are -- they did increase production at the meeting, but they didn't, like, just open the spigots. this is the most disciplined we have seened out of the opec plus members, and that bodes well for anybody who is in this en

partners i can be with for a long, long time rather than the saudis and the others as i said, look, chevron, exxon, sure, they can go higher the fact it got a couple of activists had a successful campaign doesn't mean anything they're still fossil fuel companies. >> doesn't mean anything >> one of the biggest users of energy which is autos are going to evs >> it doesn't mean anything? >> i don't think it means anything, no >> the fact, farmer jim -- i will get to you, kari, i know you are a hater on energy. forgive me on that farmer jim uses a lot of energy in the tractor every weekend, probably three times a week knowing how much he likes to ride that tractor. >> i do. >> now, why isn't this the place to be if you are into, dare i say, esg, that watch happened with exxon opens the door and it was a game changer, a water shed moment pick your cliche because they all work because it very well may be that, farmer jim, that a new class of investors could look at what happened at exxon and say, now that's for me because i want to be part of the transformation of what's going to happen. >> yeah, that's

exxon and chevron up nicely. e dramatic historic week for exxon mobil and we should get a preliminary count on the proxy voting as i had reported last week o certainly possible if not more likely tan not that engine one is going to get that third seat. we may see a preliminary tally i think very soon. but it could be couple of weeks before we get the official tally on that historic vote, mike, that also may continue to sort of add -- not -- in a way seen as a positive because how many companies, you know, as they try to change their profile or open up to these kind of questions/attacks from activist investors in terms of at least their carbon footprint so to speak. will they spend even more on capital to get oil out of the ground that certainly doesn't appear to be likely. >> it doesn't seem at all. puts them on the defensive also raises a little bit of a question in general for the esg mandate, the esg ethos in the sense of like, if everything is esg is anything esg. and i think there's been work out there sugges

sanctioned energy stocks because many of these companies changed their suboptimal ways, chevron, pioneer and exxon these are the companies that thrive when economies around the world are growing and that's what i expect. the bottom line, until we see the fed's eyes, the whites of their eyes on wednesday, you can expect the action to look like today where we had lots of traffic in the junior and senior growth aisles with shoppers fleeing from the messy industrial and yes, bank stock aisles let's go to tina in illinois, tina. >> caller: thank you for choosing this over law or journalism, jim. >> thank you you're very kind you're very kind i don't regret it one bit. work hard here and i love my team so much what is going on >> caller: you guys are awesome. i bought bumble back in february i liked the women first narrative bumble bff and bumble business and two of my adult children have chosen it as a way to meet people even with today's bump, i'm down 33%. i know you recently said it's not a stock you would own. would you suggest i buy, hold or sell -- >> i like the company very much. the stock is a

exxon i exxon no longer in the dow, chevron down 3%. so chevron first negative. second, the boeing saga. the federal aviation administration is taking a hard line with boeing to say the least. i was excited about the possibility for the united continental order to be announced. then i discovered that the 777 model has issues i thought that was okay? now the company is adamant there is no need to worry about the push backed timeline i think this is more about the tenor or the terror. the faa must despise these guys. after all the recent safety issues can you blame them? the industrials need boeing. it's too important to the group. new that the aerospace kingpin has two strikes against it, another project in trouble and no china orders in sight, they will strike a giant equity offering if you like boeing, please keep your pall powder dry. i am not talking my book we have the new covid variants to consider. do you want to travel before you find out whether your vaccine works against the strains? if a mutation can break through, that's bad news. hence why the airline

chevron and exxon are under pressure as well the big drop in energy comes as we see oil prices slip after018, just last friday there is more "squawk on the street" ahead. st wh ayitus do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy, even a term policy, for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized that we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have one hundred thousand dollars or more of life insurance you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit conventrydirect.com to find out if you policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. >>> senator bernie sanders calling to adjust salt caps, but high earners, well, they may not feel that much relief. robert frank explains. robert >> good morning, david bernie sanders included $120 billion in his budget for salt relief, but a full repeal of salt would cost more than 3 times that the message is that a partial repeal is more

exxon got two itchy activist members on the board. chevronew can there was a reduction of emissions. and shall, -- shell cut emissions harder and faster. was may 26 the day on which we will look back and say this is where the tide went out? what is your strategy on a cleaner future in oil? >> that may be the case. this is not easy to judge. if you are close to the sector, every day for many years, these are not new themes. we have been writing and talking about energy transition issues basically since the previous downturn. in 2015, discussions came up and accelerated, but sometimes you can be too close to a sector. and you think we have been talking about this for a very long period of time. it may well be the case that the events of 2020, the esg and the climate change issue and the events of last week have really driven these issues home to a much larger audience. that makes it a relatively difficult trade-off. fundamental analysts like me have seen shares the rate for some time already. our argument is a lot is in the price when it comes

for example, boeing, united health, chevron, exxon, they are dow stocks and they are all down , that'sc e, and they are issuing a warning about that platform, but bitcoin has gone straight up 34.5 is your current quote and we have kids learning about bitcoin in summer camp. i can hear ashley webster he's laughing. you can't see him yet. i know why you're laughing because you know perfectly well i would not send any child of mine to a bitcoin camp. what do you got? ashley: [laughter] well i was laughing because i was saying i'd probably flunk the course myself. yeah, this is summer camp for the future. yeah, there's a petting zoo and painting and games but oh, yes there's a class in bitcoin, but the crypto kids camp spans five days, and combines normal activities with a crash course in how to think about buy and even mine bitcoins and bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. 26 children ages 5 all the way up to 17 taking part on the premise that no one is too young to join the bitcoin economy. most of the children, by the way , are non-white as part of an intentional push by the organizers w

exxon. i've changed my student on the ones mike worth at chevron. passionate sheffield at pioneer, passionate exxon the most pro environmental board of all the oils because of engine one so these stocks are now up stocks i know we got to move on but i like the oils. those oils that i just mentioned. >> you getting the same message in your ear as mine. let's get to bob pisani pisani good morning to you. >> good morning scott. good see you very modest response to the hotter ppi ten year flattish. the vix still sitting around 16. that is about where it was pre pandemic very modest respond. take a look at the sectors and as we've been noting there's been a bias against cyclical end values so far this month contributing little today but not as much. energy great moves up here new highs in energy. oil holds up near 70 dollars teching flattish but the overall trend has been pretty clear. buy a little more growth and sell a little more of the cyclical value stock here's. you can see what's been going on in the overall fund manager surveys. bank of america ha

i like chevron and pioneer natural resources. like exxon after the board changed and got very proenvironmental which brings today where the oils were a strength in an otherwise uni'm priso -- unimpressive market. the surge of crude makes it -- how about life difficult for fed chief jay powell for tomorrow's meeting? even as many other commodities have fallen, some have fallen in recent weeks, oil keeps going higher so when powell gives a statement tomorrow and holds the press conference, he'll be tormented by the media with multiple questions about inflation. i've seen it you've seen it powell is adamant it's chance t -- transitory and said i told you so unfortunately, oil is too powerful and negative for the press to ignore and at some point he'll say he's monitoring it, which in this world means. >> sell, sell, sell, sell! >> second, no matter what you say or do the algorithm controls so much of trading will immediately jump to the conclusion oil demand is higher than expected and that's inflation. i have told you over and over that the p

chevron investors have voted in favor of a proposal to cut its emissions, while shareholders at exxoned 2 climate activist to the company board. while the industry operations are estimated to account for 90% of all human made greenhouse gas emissions, that includes methane that poses a global warming to write more than 25 times greater than that of carbon dioxide. oil is estimated to release 1/3 of carbon emissions well per while gas produces 1/5. the drilling method known effect -- that as fracking is known to contaminate drinking water it with chemicals linked to serious health diseases. there is also the risk of oil spills that as a devastating impact on marine life. an explosion of a bp oil rig release more than 13 million gallons into the gulf of mexico causing one of the worst environmental disasters. ♪ let's get going and bring in our guest. in amsterdam, we have mina, lead campaigner of friends of the netherlands. we have an economist and energy analyst, and in rome, lorenzo at the university of pretoria and an author. welcome to inside story. i am coming to you first in amste

they come on growing pressure to cut their emissions chevron investors the voted in favor of a proposal to cut its emissions while shareholders at exxon elected to climate activists to the company board. while the industry operations are estimated to account for 9 percent of all human made greenhouse gas emissions. that includes me thing the poses a global warming threats more than $25.00 times greater than that of carbon dioxide . oil is estimated to release one 3rd of the wills carbon emissions when burned, while gas produces one 5th. the drilling method of fracking is known to contaminate drinking water sources with chemicals that lead to serious health diseases. there's also the risk of oil spills that have a devastating impact on marine life and explosion as a b p oil. reagan 2010 released more than 130000000 gallons into the gulf of mexico, causing one of the world's worst environmental disasters. ah, okay, let's get going. let's bring in our guest in amsterdam. we have minute, a potter leak campaign at friends of the earth in the netherlands in burn. we have connie, the maya, and economist, and energy analyst. and in rome, we h

all right, chevron helping pump the dow higher today as oil holds steady above $70 per barrel. exxont which one should you pick to energize your portfolio? today's countdown closer has the answer, next. the closing bell ringing in just about seven minutes from now. the dow up 34. we'll be right back. there's interest you accrue, and interests you pursue. plans for the long term, and plans for a long weekend. . . you can get the financial clarity you need, and live a life rich in meaning, and gratitude. to learn more, text thrive to 444555, or visit thrivent.com. ♪. ashley: the closing bell rings in four minutes. the s&p 500 still holding on, up 18 points. we could see its first record by the way close for the s&p since may 7th as the dow looks to snap its three-day losing streak. the dow hanging up just nine points. all right, now this, weekly jobless claims may have fallen for the sixth straight week to a new pandemic low but according to our "countdown" closer the labor shortage is one of triumvirate of big economic forces having the biggest impact on the economy and global markets

chevron shares you own. kinder morgan shares you own apache calls, baker hughes calls, schlumberger calls, exxon calls, are you worried some of these trades have tapped themselves out >> no. and the reason i say that is this i know that the move has been dramatic and we talk about going back to november, $36 for crude, now you are talking about $72 just the other day then we pulled back underneath $70, but i think we are sitting in a position now, scott, in my opinion in the energy space where two steps forward and one step back. that's what we've been doing a little bit we've had bumps along the way. it has not been a straight-up trajectory for some of these names. but you look at the deaf instdevins the schlumbergers and those, they have had pull backsbound they tend to go higher i think we're going to see 75 to 80 in the not too distant future then i will start to probably peel back a little bit until then i think there's more room for crude to move to the upside >> shannon, eog and valero are the stocks you own you sold chevron six months ago maybe. what is your view on this trade? we talked about it, prob

exxon envisions a long-term profitable future with fossil fuels and is unlike european rivals. manus: we've had a lot of this news from around shell and chevront impacting the debate in the industry on transformation? aaron: i think we are seeing a couple of things. one difference that is quite interesting is there is really a contrast between american oil titans and their rivals in europe. over the last few years, we've seen shell, bp and total commit to zero emission targets by mid century. the exxon ceo has dismissed these targets and said they won't do little to halt climate change. what is changing is the climate movement is so mainstream now, you are seeing some of the world's largest institutional investors willing to back small investors like engine number one. blackrock, which is the second largest shareholder in exxon with a 6.6% stake, voted for three of the four directors nominated by engine number one. manus: certainly change is afoot and it quite a pace. our asian energy editor, aaron clark. a quick image from the london office, that's where we gather for coffee and a quick chat. ftse futures in focus. is it all on track for jun