reporter as well as joining us from washington msnbc policy analyst "washington post" aforementioned ezra klein, you, i think have been more optimistic than many, just in the sense you seem to believe should we have a shutdown, this will teach republican base, house caucus, a lesson they will not want to repeat when it comes to the debt ceiling. do you still believe that today? >> people are getting it wrong. i start in so much deeper a whole of pes michls than everybody that my writing appears -- i believe defaulting on the debt, i don't believe it's zero percent possibility, 5%, i think it's 10, 20, could really happen. if it raise happens, i think consequences are unimaginably bad. if they went on for any length of time, you're dealing with financial crisis, it could be on the order of what we saw in 2008. the argument of a shut down, which, again, in any normal world we should not happen, but the argument for a shutdown is if we can play out this high-stakes drama in a visible way where there's a public backlash that scares republicans and brings in wall street, brings in business, convince

ezra klein will join me in a moment, with facts from "the spin."here are more talks about a job killer, here is the senator. >> who is talking about how obama care is forcing more and more people into part-time employment. every day the headlines come in. more jobs lost. more people losing their health insurance. more premiums going up. more people pushed into part-time work. the american people want obama care stopped because it is not working. it is killing jobs and pushing people into part-time work. >> now, take a look at job charts since president obama was sworn in. lots of jobs lost and a slower recovery. but you don't see is any inflexion points around the passage of obama care, as far as it pushing more people into part-time, this chart shoots holes in that theory. there was a spike in the recession before the obama care became the law of the land. since that, the part-time obama care has actually trended downward, the notion that obama care is causing part-time work is simply not the data. joining me now on the eve of its full implementat

, msnbc political analyst and mccain 2008 senior adviser steve schmidt, and nbc policy analyst, ezra kleined cruise, the senate going first is not exactly the way he wants to see this happen. >> i think for ted cruise this is about 2016. >> everything is. >> it's brilliant politics for him. in the sense that if people follow his pickets charge and lead the congressional republicans into a political debacle. raise the president from his tough position right now. in a head-to-head against republicans. potentially cost republicans because of a government shutdown. seat in the house. a couple lost senate seats. at the end of the day. ted cruise will go out there, he went be blamed for the stupidity of the tactics. he is going to go out and say there weren't enough true believers. there were too many rhinos. e w i was sabotaged. if i am the nominee. i can deliver. stand up against obama care. end of the day. ted cruise, despite stupidity of tactics and the harp, m. the blame will fall on the weak-kneed republicans who had been undermining the conservative cause. >> ezra klein what are the legis

. >> joining us now is ezra klein. msnbc analyst and blogger for the "washington post". thanks for being here. been thinking today, trying to think today less about the marginal political developments of the moment. >> good for you. >> i'm trying to get focused on the stakes here, the cost. can you talk about what we know the economic impact or nuts an bolts impact would be of a shutdown and it would be a government shutdown first, then next of a default. >> so, a government shutdown is a bad thing. you do not want to have it happen and direct economic costs, the office of management and budget actually tried to look at the cost of the '95, '96 shutdowns. the two longest we have ever had. they calculated it at $2 billion. that's not great. of course during that time, you had a lot of pain from the families involved, but not a large impact on the economy the size of our own. it's just bad. a default is an economic storm of literally and i mean literally unimaginable proportions. we've never conceived of allowing it to happen before. the president put it well today. he sai

. >> interesting, benjie, in today "washington post," ezra klein looks at this half class full here,op's shutdown is great news. if a shutdown begins monday night, republicans and democrats will have more than two weeks to resolve it before hitting the debt ceiling. is that sort of a silver lining here? >> i might put that as class three-quarters or 7/8 full. that's a popular theory. up of the top economists at goldman sachs, where they are very worried about a default, said you should root for a shutdown, not because they support the house republicans efforts, but they hope it will get it out of their system. but it's just as likely that the same dynamic driving the shutdown, this conservative faction of the republican party has become powerful and difficult to say no to, is going to lead to the same confrontation over the debt ceiling. perhaps they'll get it out of their system, let off steam with a shutdown, it's very hard to say. >> what's interesting, rachel, is that the key provision the gop wants is just to delay obama care, but is that even technically possible? are the wheel

i wonder how you respond to ezra klein had an analysis, in part low rates available because insurance company created special plans that include fewer innetwork doctors and hospitals. what are you saying to americans has are worried about seeing specialists, prices more limited. is that the price have you to pay for lower cost health insurance and making it available to millions of americans? >> alex, i'm a recovering insurance commissioner. i did that job for eight years in kansas. what i know is in order to file a plan, these are, again, private insurance plans licensed by the states around the country, that's how insurance is regulated. federal government doesn't regulate, private, state insurance commissioners do. you have to have a network, a number of providers, ob-gyns, neurologists, pediatricians, folks who deal with patients or you can't get your product license. some networks are broad, more and more to choose from, certainly more narrow. you will have access to specialty care needed. you will have access to hospitals. you will have access to prescription drugs, mental healt

joining me now is msnbc analyst, ez ezra klein. i'm going to confess manager to you. >> i'm here to hear your confession. >> you guys write about all this like continuing resolution, debt ceiling fight as well as anyone and i can barely bring myself to read it because it is -- >> thanks? >> it is both so opaque and so frustrating and so, before we get into where we are now, i want you to tell me this and explain this. there is a normal budgetary process, right? it doesn't always have to work like this. >> no, it doesn't. let's try to make this a little less horrible to think about or more horrible the less boring. so, yes, there's a normal budgetary process and it has nothing to do with any of this. what republicans are doing is very simple, makes a perfect amount of sense, they are trying to get leverage with terrible things happening to the economy to get concessions out of president obama. the debt ceiling, government shutdown, it isn't the end of the world. the government stops working for a few days. polls turn against who eve

the folks at ezra klein's "wonk" blog" combed through the policies that might affect the situation in a series of steps for the u.s. specifically including us just deciding to accept for refugees from the war. the countries that have already taken in nearly 2 million of syria's refugees are, themselves, making an urgent appeal just for aid from the rest of the world to help those other countries handle that millions of people inflow that they are dealing with essentially all on their own. the global think tank known as international crisis group is calling for no military intervention but instead put forward a six-step peace plan that starts with internationally brokered talks. group called peace action is urging people to tell the white house, "i oppose military intervention and military support in syria, but i support massive efforts for a political solution and continued humanitarian aid." so what if we got massively more involved in syria but in a way that was not military? the idea, the list of ideas for putting pressure on syria is growing. i think it will get longer still inter

ezra klein, perry bacon. we heard the president say there would be no negotiation over the debt limit. house speaker spoke a short time ago and said republicans have a new plan, new plan to tackle the debt ceiling attachment a listen. >> we're going to introduce a plan that ties important spending cuts and pro growth reforms to a debt limit increase. the president says i'm not going to negotiate. well, i'm sorry but it just doesn't work that way. >> joining me now is democratic congressman james clyburn from carolina. good to have you here. as we dive in on this about the debt ceiling. we heard the president say he's not going to negotiate on anything when it comes to full faith and credit in our economy. is the debt ceiling where you expect the real fight to begin? >> thank you so much for having me, mr. roberts. i do expect for that to be the real fight. i do expect for the president, of course, to hold fast to the fact he will not negotiate on the full faith and credit of the united states of america. we'r

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guest: it is very important -- i don't know if yes written it yet, but ezra klein reach me over the weekending he was " dong something saying, people know where syria is and doesn't matter?" it does matter in the sense that as the caller just noted, noting that israel, iraq, iran and others are round -- are around in the neighborhood is important to understand the stakeholders, what is at stake and how much instability could possibly ensue later. on the broader side of israeli intelligence, i think is really was significant but not determinative -- israeli intelligence was significant but not determinative. said today in "the washington post" that if you have all of this intelligence, the obama administration, why not show it? i think that is a legitimate point of view. that said, this is not the first chemical weapons designation that barack obama has made. there was an earlier one, and with that designation, the open -- did administration committed to providing various kinds of support, low-level munitions, and guidance that would help increase the efficacy and effectiveness of the syrian

piece of legislation, there seems to be no room for bargaining, no backup plans on either side as ezra kleinshouldn't there be more concern about a small default or small shutdown of the government? >> because this is a huge operation with trillions of dollars throw floing through it every year. they can find money from one pocket or another in order to pay interest on the debt. there is close to a zero percent chance they're going to default on any bonds. they can delay payments to lockheed on a defense contract. there are all kinds of things they can do to stretch money. >> john, how worried are you that the economy is slowing? the reason that the federal reserve is not tapering its qe is because it's clearly worried about employment growth slowing. are you concerned the economy is slowing? >> no, i'm not. in fact, i think the fed promoted the idea of the economy slowing by its failure to announce a small tape they are week. if you look at the numbers at 8:30 this morning, especially the small claims jobs data, they've fallen, through all the distortions called by california and their back