let's speak to our economics editor, faisal islam. ck to what the cancer saying today, faisal, in your view come up today, faisal, in your view come up to what extent has he changed his tune on the prospects for the lockdown is relaxed more fully? his language has strengthened since last week, the word severe recession was what used today and he said it was not obvious there would be a sharp bounceback and he said he wouldn't speculate on that. and what you get is perhaps what is obvious to many people that things have changed hugely in the economy. essentially, you have two unprecedented forces at work here. you have the pandemic, the shutdowns, the global recession and globaljobs the shutdowns, the global recession and global jobs catastrophe the shutdowns, the global recession and globaljobs catastrophe on the one hand and then these unprecedented for britain moves by the government to pay people's wages, tens of billions of pounds, 10 million wages being paid right 110w 10 million wages being paid right now by the government. it is

faisal islam, our economics editor.ister must account for official figures showing 10,000 "unexplained" deaths last month in care homes in england and wales. the challenge was made by the labour leader sir keir starmer, who said the uk government had been "too slow to protect people in care homes". borisjohnson announced a further £600m to improve infection control in care homes in england. the latest official figures show that in the last 24—hour period, 494 deaths were recorded in care homes, in the community and in hospitals in the uk. that brings the overall total to 33,186 deaths linked to coronavirus. our political editor laura kuenssburg has the latest. were the places that provide homes for the vulnerable and elderly ready for this crisis? are they coping now? some managers fear they're being asked to take too much risk, hospitals requesting that they take in elderly people who have tested positive with the virus. we've refused them, and i know a lot of other homes have refused them. it's very hard to control, s

faisal islam, bbc news. faisal islam joins me now.unprecedented downturn and begs the question what might things have looked like without the furloughs scheme? that was one of the important thing is, the centrality of that scheme, where the centrality of that scheme, where the government and extraordinary circumstances pays the wages of 6 million workers to the idea they would be a rapid rebound. the governor told me, interesting given under current plans it's due to be unwound from the start of next month. if you step back, a big question as to how you can reconcile the idea of these unprecedented, grim falls with the idea from some others that this is optimistic. i think you can because what we are seeing in terms of the fall is what has happened right now. the result of unprecedented shutdowns of the economy. what happens from here is much more up for grabs and the delay not just of economics much more up for grabs and the delay notjust of economics but how the government response, governments around the world and also what happens

faisal islam, bbc news. and an hours—long virtual meetig with difference. thousands of singers come together for a singalong of handel's messiah an hour—long meeting with a difference. this is news, the latest headlines. a former police officer in the us city of minneapolis has been charged with murder after the death of the unarmed black man george floyd, who died on monday. the city has seen three nights of rioting. the uk government announces changes to the scheme that covers the wages, of furloughed workers, affected by the coronavirus lockdown — businesses will have to start paying contributions, from august. with hundreds of thousands of spaniards losing jobs in the coronavirus crisis, the country's socialist—led government has today approved a basic income for those hardest hit. a guaranteed monthly basic income of 462 euros, that's $500 — will be paid to 100—thousand families initially, to be extended eventually to a million households. such a scheme has rarely been implemented in europe before and s

faisal islam, bbc news.ho's determined to be the first to punch her way to the top. this is bbc news, the latest headlines india and bangladesh evacuate millions of people from coastal areas — as a huge cyclone bears down on the bay of bengal. unity as all member states of the world health organization back an independent evaluation into the handling of the coronavirus pandemic. in a normal year in the uk — local authorities step in and arrange some four thousand funerals — in cases where there are no family or friends — or if there's no money to pay for one. they‘ re called public health funerals. now undertakers are warning there'll be more this year because of the pandemic. 0ur correspondent angus crawford has this report. a finaljourney... there is a very visceral fear i think in everyone about ending up alone. ..for albert roy sadler. links to family and friends, long broken, so no—one to follow the hearse. it causes you to look back and think, "well, why, how did things end his way?" only one mourner t

faisal islam, bbc news.ng their lockdowns in different ways and at different speeds. people in scotland are now able to meet friends and family again as the country begins to ease its lockdown after 66 days. the new rules mean that people from two households can meet outside so long as they keep at least two metres apart. in wales, people from two households will be allowed to meet outdoors from next week, but they will be asked to "stay local" when planning such meetings. wales' first minister mark drakeford said the rate of infection was falling more slowly than expected, so wales had "only limited headroom" to make changes. and in northern ireland, "groups of four to six people who do not share a household can meet outdoors maintaining social distancing". president trump has said the us will break ties with the world health organization over its handling of the coronavirus pandemic. at the same news conference at the white house, he announced the us will begin the process of ending preferential treatment

here's our economics editor, faisal islam.slam. government'sjob scheme has helped the government's job scheme has helped keep 8.5 million workers on payroll is on tap effectively including here. the only change to that generosity might push them over the edge. it would not be viable for us the edge. it would not be viable for us for the farlow scheme to diminish and for us to contribute more if we do not have clarity as to what is going on because at the end of the dfm bar is closed and there is no money coming in how are you supposed to contribute to that scheme? it is going to mean lots of people out of work. at least i was 8.5 million workers will continue to get the bulk of their wages paid for by the taxpayer. injuly bulk of their wages paid for by the taxpayer. in july this bulk of their wages paid for by the taxpayer. injuly this can be on a part—time offering flexibility for companies facing workers back to work. in august firms will have to pay national insurance and pensions, about 5% on average, and in september the

faisal islam, bbc news.hat derek chauvin, the former minneapolis police officer who was arrested in connection with the death of george floyd, has been charged with third degree murder. derek chauvin was the officer seen kneeling on the neck of derek chauvin. here's the county prosecutor a short while ago. you have been charged with third—degree murder. we are in the process of reviewing there maybe subsequent charges later. i have failed to share with you a detailed complaint will be made available to the it this afternoon. i didn't want to wait any longer to share the news that he is in custody and has been charged with murder. a short while ago we spoke to dr cornel west, the legendary civil rights leader, from cambridge, massachusetts, and asked him whether the announcement of third degree murder charges against police officer derek chauvin would dampen the protests. the matter really i think peoples concerns cut itiuci'i the matter really i think peoples concerns cut much deeper than that. it's notjust

faisal islam, bbc news. let us return to our top story now.streets state to state —— anger. this is live in atla nta. state —— anger. this is live in atlanta. this is the reaction to the killing of george —— george floyd by a police officer. the police of the has been charged with third—degree murder and manslaughter but that has not dampened the protests. thousands of people out on the streets from los angeles, chicago, boston, even washington, dc, where the white house was surrounded at one point. protesters marching down to the white house. we will keep you right across all the protests right across the united states. for now, i'm lewis vaughan jones. this united states. for now, i'm lewis vaughanjones. this is bbc news. well, friday was a very warm day across the uk. in fact, the hot spot was scotland. temperatures got up to 28 degrees. and saturday, in most parts of the uk, will be every bit as warm, at least the low to mid 20s in most major towns and cities. it's been so reliable during the lockdown that the spring has ended up being the

faisal islam, bbc news.t the somali boxer who's determined to be the first to punch her way to the top for her country. this is bbc news, the latest headlines. india and bangladesh evacuate millions of people from coastal areas, as a huge cyclone bears down on the bay of bengal. the who defends its handling of the coronavirus pandemic after member states request an independent inquiry. around the world, families have been struggling with remote learning. new york city has 1.1 million public school children — among them are the poorest and most disadvantaged in the nation. laura trevelyn went to see how the neediest kids are dealing with the challenges of the virtual classroom. ariel loved to collect objects from the world above the sea. eighth grader naobi rodriguez is keeping her siblings busy and thinking about her schoolwork. since the end of march, the girls have been confined to their apartment in the bronx — trying to learn remotely while sharing a laptop. do you miss school? yes, very much. what do yo

our economics editor faisal islam has more.in bangor, northern ireland, they are happy to help the national effort on personal protective equipment. but what they really want to be making is aeroplanes. and with empty industry order books, they now face further pressure from the threat of a travel quarantine. i think it would be naive to suggest that everyone will get through this. unfortunately, there will be casualties. the critical thing for the uk aerospace market is to get aircraft flying again. this quarantine will of course inhibit that and delay that. so what that means for the sector is that going forward, particularly in the second half of this year and as the sector resets in terms of the volumes that it's producing, that continued support from the government will be even more critical. it's the extreme situation in industries like this that have led to this economy—wide number — the british economy shrinking by 2% in the first three months of this year. the last time the economy performed that badly was the financia

faisal islam, bbc news.drop in retail sales. they plummeted by a record amount in april, as many high street stores closed because of the coronavirus. the office for national statistics says the amount of goods sold fell by 18%. clothing sales were the biggest hit, down more than 50%. but, with most shops shut, there's been a boost in online spending, which rose nearly 31% compared with march. here's emma simpson. the shoppers vanished and so did the sales. today's figures reveal the scale of the damage, touching every high street and all the businesses in them. the owner of this chain says our shopping habits have now changed. retail will never, ever be the same again. every year, we've seen a higher uptake in online sales in comparison to retail sales. what this lockdown has done, it has probably accelerated, in my personal view, the whole transition by at least five years. there will be less footfall on the high street, which will mean we will have to decrease our fixed costs. if they don't change, what w

faisal islam, our economic editor, thank you.ations of the uk is how to get children and staff back to school in a way that's safe and minimises risk. the bbc has seen research exploring the views of more than 250,000 families in england, wales and northern ireland. more than 80% of them told the website parentkind that they would be unhappy if schools reopened soon after lockdown was eased. 0ur education editor, branwenjeffreys, has more details. dean jones is grappling with one question — how can he keep children safe if they come back? having looked at our staircases, they're not sufficiently wide, so they would have to be one way, up here, down elsewhere. to keep corridors clear, it will be teachers moving wherever possible, rather than students. here's a fairly typical classroom that would normally hold around 30 children. typically, now, we expect it to hold 15. for the key workers' children at this sheffield secondary, a taste of how it might be in the future. it'd be unusual because, like, you wouldn't see your friends an

faisal islam, bbc news.e government's coronavirus response says he disagrees with the decision to ease lockdowns across the uk, because the level of infection remains in his words "very high." from monday, up to six people will be able to meet outside and in private outdoor spaces in the uk, as long as they adhere to social distancing measures. the use of bathrooms in private homes will also be allowed as long as they are disinfected afterwards but meeting within homes is still forbidden. the easing of measures comes despite the office for national statistics estimating that there currently 8,000 cases of the coronavirus in the uk alone. professor john edmunds says it was a "political decision" to lift restrictions and many scientists would prefer to wait. we could stay in lockdown, or we could keep measures in place. and in scotland for instance, they are not using restrictions anywhere near as much, and wales as well, as much, and wales as well, as much as in england. the government here in westminster cle

faisal islam, our economics editor.fficial number of deaths from coronavirus recorded in the last 24—hour period increased by 627 to take the total to over 32,600. but there's another measure favoured by some experts which compares the number of deaths across the uk with what might have been expected without the pandemic. this measure, known as excess deaths, suggests that since mid—march, there have been around 50,000 additional deaths. our health editor hugh pym has more details. these are traumatic and testing times for many care homes. at this nursing home in county antrim in northern ireland, six residents have died with coronavirus. i love you. staff pride themselves on treating residents like members of their own family, but they feel they've been left to fend for themselves. i feel that we were left on our own. as if we were forgotten. we were forgotten as well as the wee residents. northern ireland's department of health said coronavirus planning for social care had begun at the same time as planning for hospit

with the latest, here's our economics editor, faisal islam.t open, neither do the brewers, and so the government's job scheme has helped hugely keep 8.5 million workers on payrolls, on tap effectively, including him at wild card breweries. but any change to that generosity might push some over the edge. it would not be viable for us for the furlough scheme to diminish and us to contribute more if we don't have clarity as to what is going on because at the end of the day, if a bar is closed and there is no money coming in, how are you supposed to financially contribute to that scheme? that is simply going to mean lots and lots of people out of work. at least those 8.5 million workers will now continue to get the bulk of their wages paid for by the taxpayer. injuly, this can now be on a part—time basis, offering flexibility for companies phasing workers back to work. in august, the government will continue to pay 80% of salary but firms will have to pay national insurance and pensions — about 5% on average. then in september, the taxpayer contri

faisal islam, bbc news.n and the labour leader have clashed at prime minister's questions, as the government was accused of mishandling the crisis in care homes today. mr starmer said care homes were told infection was unlikely. downing street has dismissed the accusation. the prime minister also announced a further £600 million for care homes in england. the row comes as the latest official figures show that in the last 2a hours 494 people have died in care homes, in the community and in hospitals. that brings the overall total to 33,186 people whose deaths were linked to coronavirus. here's our political editor, laura kuenssburg. the places that provide homes for the vulnerable and elderly, were they ready for this crisis? are they coping they ready for this crisis? are they co ' they ready for this crisis? are they coping now? managers fear they are being asked to take too much risk, hospitals requesting they take in elderly people who have tested positive for the virus. we have refused them and a lot of

more on that and the lockdown in a moment but first here's our economics editor, faisal islam.idlands airport there may be no passenger planes right now, but cargo carries on. the pandemic means new patterns in the goods being traded back and forth as the world's major economies face recession. coronavirus per se hasn't taken shipments out of our network, but the quarantine and lockdown and people working at home and factories being closed has. i can't predict the future but what i would say is that business heals. and it will have to be resilient, the bank of england today sketching out that the pandemic and the shutdown have plunged the uk economy into the sharpest downturn in history, a far worse start to a recession than the financial crisis over a decade ago, than any recession ever, but with the hope of a rapid rebound. morning, governor. so quite different in shape to that last recession says the governor of the bank of england. i think it is unprecedented in the history of this institution. i would say it's different in two respects. it's a much sharper downturn, so the

back here in the studio, faisal islam is here, our economics editor.sis and has been for months now, but tell us a little more about the economic crisis that they are also having to deal with. two crises here, as the prime minister says, hopefully the coronavirus has peaked, but if you cut through everything the prime minister said today, what you get is the fact the economic lockdown in essence stays, largely, and indeed is extended in terms of things like restaurants, cafe is antenna mars, we will get the detail tomorrow, intojuly. that's we will get the detail tomorrow, into july. that's another seven weeks. in other areas though, you will have heard the change in tone, the shift of emphasis as the prime minister called it, from stay—at—home to minister called it, from stay—at— home to stay minister called it, from stay—at—home to stay alert. what's that about? now, i think when the original prohibitions and lockdown was brought in, i think the government didn't expect so many businesses and so many workers that did have some discretion to still wor

our economics editor faisal islam joins me. more people to return to work, possibly as early as tomorrow, in context with what is going on in the economy? there is an awful public health crisis getting slightly less bad and a severe economic crisis that will not necessarily be revealed to people until they get back to work, which is getting worse by the week. the two things are connected and when push came to shove the prime minister chose, understandably, to privatise the public health crisis, not to be led, as he put it, by economic necessity —— to prioritise the public—health crisis. but he has just tried to get people to use some of the discretion already in the rules. the rocked out —— the lockdown was not watertight. you we re lockdown was not watertight. you were encouraged to go to work if you should. he is making that a little bit more explicit and sending a message to employers to make it easier to reopen the economy when that comes back, that is why the "stay at home" messaging has changed to "stay alert", but that h

it all adds up to a level of government borrowing not seen in peacetime. 0ur economics editor faisal islamd billions there, just put it into context for us. more incredible numbers, actually, from the government's official, but independent, forecasters, who updated their analysis of what we are seeing. back in march, the 0br, as they are known, at the budget, they projected that borrowing, so they projected that borrowing, so the difference between taxing coming in and spending going dead, would be 55 billion. that was two months ago, as the virus was beginning to take hold. today, on the second update because of coronavirus, that has gone up to nearly £300 billion and that includes some of the extra spending on rescue schemes, we have seen spending on rescue schemes, we have seen today, the first billion pounds claimed by the self employed under that scheme, that has kicked in a little early and we heard about the extension to thejob little early and we heard about the extension to the job schemes, paying millions of workers, but that is obviously a huge number, hundreds of billions and,

faisal islam, bbc news.starting to flicker back on. a2 million people travel to the city every year — and with many jobs reliant on tourism, businesses are doing all they can to encourage visitors to return, as sophie long reports. the party that once raged here is over. the big question is — will revellers ever roll back into town? tourism is to las vegas what the automotive industry is to detroit, what music is to nashville, government to washington, dc. without it, without the people, there is no party. and the economic impact of this eerily quiet and empty strip is rippling across the city. at the peak of the great recession, our unemployment rate in southern nevada was about 13—1a%, very high by historical standards. as you and i sit here today, that unemployment rate is roughly 30%. so even if we bring two—thirds of those employees back online, we are going to have an unemployment rate that is substantially higher than we've seen historically. people here are conflicted. they're desperate to return to

faisal islam has the latest. when the pub don't open, neither the burros.rnment wasn't new scheme has helped keep eight and a half any change to that generosity might push some over the edge. it wouldn't be enough for us for the scheme to diminish and us to contribute more if we don't have clarity as to what is going on, because at the end of the day, if our bars close and there is no money coming in, how are we supposed to financially contribute to that? that willjust mean lots and lots of people out of work. at least those eight and a half million workers will now continue to get the bulk of their wages paid for by the taxpayer. injuly, bulk of their wages paid for by the taxpayer. in july, this bulk of their wages paid for by the taxpayer. injuly, this can now be ona taxpayer. injuly, this can now be on a part—time basis, offering flexibility to companies facing workers back to work. in august, the government will continue to pay 80% of salary. in september, the taxpayer contribution will go down to 70% and then 60% in october. workers will have to get a

faisal islam, bbc news.n and the leader of the opposition, sir keir starmer, have clashed at prime minister's questions, as the government was accused today of mishandling the crisis in care homes. mr starmer said care homes were told infection was unlikely. downing street has dismissed the accusation. the prime minister also announced a further £600 million for care homes in england. the latest official figures show that in the last 2a hours, 494 people have died in hospitals, care homes, and in the community in the uk. that brings the overall total to 33,186 people whose deaths were linked to coronavirus. here's our political editor laura kuenssberg. are you all right to help... were the places that provide homes for the vulnerable and elderly ready for this crisis? are they coping now? some managers fear they're being asked to take too much risk, some hospitals requesting they take in elderly people who've tested positive for the virus. we've refused them, and i know a lot of other homes have refused them

faisal islam, bbc news.w by pauljohnson, director of a leading economic research group in the uk, the institute of fiscal studies. great to have you with us. are you as optimistic as the bank of england seemingly is that there will be a sharp recovery? i am optimistic there will be a sharp recovery but there will be a sharp recovery but the question is whether it is as sharp as the bank suggests and we really are back to normal levels really are back to normal levels really quite quickly. and that is actually what i think will determine the economic history of this country over the next five or ten years. if we can get back as quickly as they suggest and this will be a problem that we face over this year and get back out of it within a year or not much more. but if it is a bit slower, even a bit slower than that, that creates all sorts of problems, additional problems for unemployment levels and huge additional problems for the government in terms of their borrowing and the deficit they will be facing into t

here's 0ur economics editor, faisal islam.es right now, but cargo carries on. the pandemic means new patterns in the goods being traded back and forth as the world's major economies face recession. coronavirus per se hasn't taken shipments out of our network, but the quarantine and lockdown and people working at home and factories being closed has. i can't predict the future but what i would say is that business heals. and it will have to be resilient, the bank of england today sketching out that the pandemic and the shutdown have plunged the uk economy into the sharpest downturn in history, a far worse start to a recession than the financial crisis over a decade ago, than any recession ever, but with the hope of a rapid rebound. morning, governor. so quite different in shape to that last recession says the governor of the bank of england. i think it is unprecedented in the history of this institution. i would say it's different in two respects. it's a much sharper downturn, so the initialfall is much more because the economy

first up, faisal islam from the bbc. thank you.essage to workers who work for companies without the cash flow to pay even their national insurance and pensions contributions and the self—employed that 100 billion is your limit, and unemployment will spike? and, then, more generally, to stephen powis, perhaps, what is happening with the assessment of the joint bio—security centre? a lot was made of this by the prime minister when it was first announced that the lockdown was to be loosened. is it at four, is it at three, is it between them? if it hasn't gone down, why are we loosening things up? thanks. in terms of the employer contribution and will employers be able to meet it, a couple of things. first of all, in aggregate, the scheme is generous. eight months is a long time to have the support. if you look at the total employer contribution over that entire period on a typical employee average employee on the scheme, it will amount to the employer making a 5% contribution of the total employment cost they would have otherwise have

a moment, we'll speak to our political editor laura kuenssberg, but first our economics editor faisal islamome context for us, in terms of the hit to the economy, if you like? 6.3 million is a mind—boggling number. you're talking of just mind—boggling number. you're talking ofjust shy of one in four employees, paid for by the state. 80% of their wage, up to £2500 a month. and £8 billion isn't all of it, it is roughly speaking an average of about a month's wage for each of those employees. so, you're talking, when you think about the office for budget responsibility‘s forecast, 39 billion for this scheme, from march untiljune, that is looking possible. on the one hand, the government says this is a sign of success, that their plan to provide a bridge from one side to the other, to park these workers so they can be taken out of the fridge and reheated after the pandemic passes, well, that, ithink, they will feel confident that has worked. but the cost is around the same per month as the nhs. and i think there are some conversations about how expensive this is, and how they might want to wind

our economics editor faisal islam has been speaking to the governor.nk it is unprecedented in the history of this institution. i would say it is different in two respects. it is a much sharper downturn. so the initialfall is much more — the economy literally went into shut down very quickly. the recovery is actually much faster, because we believe that with the right measures in place on the public health side, and the fact that it is supported by the very sensible things that the government has done, that economic activity can resume much more quickly. the bank of england sees unemployment more than doubling up a million—and—a—half to rates not seen since the mid—1990s, and taking and taking two years to then fall back. people at home — they see that chart, and it looks quite scary. the chart reflects the reality that we've been in now since march. where i think they should be reassured is that i can tell you both the government and the bank of england have put in place a very big package of measures. and we will go on utterly focused on that. our uk

our economics editor, faisal islam, has been looking at the economic cost of the pandemic.big in northampton, made sales to cafe is generating vat, paid corporation tax, business rates and wages to staff, meaning income tax and national insurance. now far less of that is happening, just online orders. instead of adding to the treasury coffers, many staff wages have been paid by the taxpayer. times this by a few million and you get massive historic levels of public borrowing. here at the treasury, the money coming in is slumping, the spending going out is surging. it always happens during recession but never quite like this. last month, the difference between the two, borrowing or the deficit, was at £62 billion for april, a record. and more in one month than had been planned at the budget for the entire year. but that doesn't include everything to stop the entire cash requirement of government was £88 billion in april. again, a record. and you can see why by looking at how taxes coming in have fallen off a cliff. vat receipts were down on last april. partly due to a policy

here's our economics editor, faisal islam.tting jobs at this west midlands fittings factory for shops and libraries, just like the officialjobs numbers. but only 12 workers, one third of employees, are manufacturing the now in demand protective screens. the other 26 workers remain on the payroll, officially employed but at home with wages paid by the taxpayer. when you look at the alternatives, which is like redundancy or being laid off, then being on furlough is a really good thing. it gives business an opportunity to carry on with its workforce. the boss is grateful and unemployment has been kept down. the furlough scheme has really worked well for us. and if it wasn't for that, i don't know where we would be. the government's crisis jobs scheme have concentrated tens of billions into controlling unemployment but official jobs numbers will soon catch up with the pandemic crisis reality all round us. and other figures today did show how hard thejobs market has been hit. the 865,000 extra people claiming jobless benefits in ap

public sector deficit balloon by hundreds of billions of pounds this year. 0ur economics editor faisal islam consequences of this pandemic. the office of budget responsibility is the independent forecaster of budgets and at the budget two months ago, they predicted borrowing annually for the government of 55 billion. after two updates taking into account coronavirus, this is what has happened to the forecalves. up to —— forecast. up to 300 billion. half of thatis forecast. up to 300 billion. half of that is a reduction in the tax take you get in a recession and the rest is the spending on rescue programmes, whether paying wages or the self—employed scheme. these are huge sums. the government is able to borrow the money from an office in the city. but this what is that huge number looks like in historical context. it is 15.2% of the size of the national income and we have not seen that in peacetime. it is more than the year around ve day, 1945 to 46 so we have not seen that since world war two. some will argue, well, world war two's debts when it was big, it took decades to pay them back and

our economics editor faisal islam has been speaking to the governor.ed in the history of this institution. i would say it is different in two respects. it is a much sharper downturn. so the initialfall is much more — the economy literally went into shutdown very quickly. the recovery is actually much faster, because we believe that with the right measures in place from the public health side, and the fact that it is supported by the very sensible things that the government has done, that economic activity can resume much more quickly. given the uncertainty, this is not a formal forecast. there given the uncertainty, this is not a formalforecast. there may be more ofa formalforecast. there may be more of a glint of optimism here. never in the history of this institution have we seen it anticipate a recession quite so sharp. the hope is that the rebound will be almost as sharp into next year — but that is as much a matter for doctors and politicians as economists. but despite the economic damage, there's no pressure here for instantaneous lifting of the

let's get more now with our economics editor, faisal islam.nomic impact of this pandemic, what does today's news tell us that we didn't know before? the aviation industry isn't typical of the entire economy, but it is typical of the type of industry that will be changed fundamentally. now people are not buying airline tickets for holidays or business travel and so you won't get that sudden bounce backin you won't get that sudden bounce back in the aviation industry and, as the rolls—royce chief executive said it takes years to get back to normal. the bank of england governor said his forecasts are predicated on how long the lockdown lasts. that is still uncertain. 0ne how long the lockdown lasts. that is still uncertain. one thing giving room for manoeuvre is the fact that inflation has come down sharply. down to below i%. that mean it is bank of england might have more room for manoeuvre to help support the economy next month. but that has not come in time to help these workers. thank you. the government says it will listen to the concerns of

here's our economics editor, faisal islam.in bangor, northern ireland, they are happy to help the national efforts on personal protective equipment. but what they really want to be making is aeroplanes. and with empty industry order books, they now face further pressure from the threat of a travel quarantine. i think the aerospace supply chain in general are all looking at their strategies, they are reviewing how that will be in the future. they are trying to estimate what that might mean, in terms of the capacity they have to provide. i think it would be naive to suggest that everyone will get through this. unfortunately, there will be casualties. it is the extreme situation in industries like this that have led to this economy—wide number — the british economy shrinking by 2% in the first three months of this year. the last time the economy performed that badly was the financial crash at the end of 2008. in fact, since modern records began, there have only been four other occasions where we've seen a worse economic decline o

andy verity, bbc news. 0ur economics editor faisal islam is here.ast that many people already suspected? yes, you do have to step back. it is simply extraordinary to see a chart like this, never seen in the 300 here history of the entire institution. it goes down so sharply. perhaps thatis it goes down so sharply. perhaps that is not surprising given that swathes of the economy have been shut down. that is a very sharp fall. but a sharp rebound too. we know the downturn has mostly happened already. that is in some of the data they are looking at. it is a bit more hopeful, this sharp rebound, and it depends notjust on economics, it depends on epidemiology, it depends on politics and the response. the interesting thing is despite this economic damage you are not getting a suggestion from the bank of england or economists to lift the lockdown immediately, because actually that second wave of the pandemic, as deadly as it would be, would also be the sort of thing that would interrupt the rebound of the government hopes for. thank you. the prime minister

furloughed, 80% of their previous salary now coming from the government. 0ur economics editor faisal islamany, but i imagine they can't go on forever, can they? there are a series of difficult dilemmas for the government as we ease out of the lockdown. i thought it was really quite telling that the prime minister in the comments referred to the economic disaster as being a second peak in the pandemic —— in the commons. that shows, it tells us, that on sunday, it won't be a radical change, it will immediately be step—by—step change to the lockdown, may be a plan for further on. you have also come in a practical application of this in lockdown, you have got tension between the unions and business who are worried about different interpretations on workplaces and in the furlough scheme, you do have a dilemma for government. 0n the one hand, they want to say to employers, this thing is not going to be around forever but they also want to say any changes will be eased out, there won't be a cliff edge. i think on cost, onjobs won't be a cliff edge. i think on cost, on jobs and won't be a cliff ed

immediate bounce back, and the economic recovery will be slow and painful. 0ur economics editor, faisal islamed, but no doubt there will be more of this to come. —— rolls—royce workers. aviation is an industry when it is difficult to see how you get a rapid bounce back from coronavirus. things have changed fundamentally, people are not buying airline tickets for holidays or business travel, so airlines are not buying aeroplanes, in a are not buying aeroplanes, in a are not buying engines, and so on. one worker in the sector said they had done all their orders for engines for this year, and they have no idea if anything will be ordered in 2021. so you can see that you're not good to get a rapid bounce back. andrew bailey, the governor of the bank of england, saying that he fears that, until we know for certain what is happening with the shutdowns, that he cannot predict exactly where the economy is going to go. some room for manoeuvre for the bank of england, though, because inflation has fallen pretty sharply, the sharpest fall for nearly 12 years, so it means that the bank and might be able

which we haven‘t seen, and of course that will have an impact on employment. 0ur economics editor faisal islamlihoods of ten million people will not last. and now the chancellor whose schemes are built around the idea of a rapid bounce back in the economy says it is not obvious that that will occur. that‘s bad news for young people about to enter the workforce. maja gustafsson is from the thinktank the resolution foundation. the problem is that, for young people especially, hospitality and retail are sectors that typically are the first kind ofjobs when people take on when they go into the labour market and it‘s where people work in the first two years, a lot of young people. even if it does bounce back eventually, these sectors, it‘s a huge problem now. in the here and now, people are losing theirjobs and their being furloughed, and people who are leaving education now will not benefit from the job retention scheme because they haven‘t had a job yet. so for as long as these sectors are down, this will increase the risk of long—term pay scarring and long—term employment scarring effects for th

us economy, if states extend their shutdowns.0ur first report comes from our economics editor — faisal islamst midlands fittings factory for shops and libraries, just like the officialjobs numbers. but only 12 workers, one third of employees, are manufacturing the now in demand protective screens. the other 26 workers remain on the payroll, officially employed but at home with wages paid by the taxpayer. when you look at the alternatives, which is like redundancy or being laid off, then being on furlough is a really good thing. it gives business an opportunity to carry on with its workforce. the boss is grateful and unemployment has been kept down. the furlough scheme has really worked well for us. and if it wasn't for that, i don't know where we would be. the government's crisis jobs scheme have concentrated tens of billions into controlling unemployment but official jobs numbers will soon catch up with the pandemic crisis reality all round us. and other figures today did show how hard thejobs market has been hit. the 865,000 extra people claiming jobless benefits in april was a record mont

earlier i heard from our economics editor faisal islam. extraordinary to see a chart like this never seen in the 300 year history of the entire institution because it does answer sharply. that is a very sharp fall, but as andy just said, sharply. that is a very sharp fall, but as andyjust said, a sharp rebound too. the thing is, we know the downturn has mostly happened already, that is in some of the data that they are looking at. it is a bit more hopeful this sharp rebound, and it depends notjust on economics, simon, it depends of course on epidemiology, it depends on politics and the response and the interesting thing is that despite this economic damage you are not getting a suggestion from the bank of england from economists to lift the lockdown immediately because actually that second wave of the pandemic, as deadly as it would be, would also be the sort of thing that would also be the sort of thing that would interrupt the rebound that every one helps for. i'm joined by rain newton—smith, chief economist at the cbi. thank you forjoin

chancellor, rishi sunak, has been giving his reaction to those figures to our economics editor, faisal islamsense, they're not a surprise, in common with pretty much every other economy around the world, we're facing severe impact from the coronavirus, you're seeing that in the numbers, and that's why we've taken the unprecedented action that we have to support people's jobs, incomes, livelihoods, at this time, and support businesses, so we can get through this period of severe disruption and emerge stronger on the other side. i know it's a technical definition but it now looks pretty certain, given what's happened in this quarter, that this is the start of a recession? as you know, recession is defined technically as two quarters of decline in gdp. we've seen one here, with only a few days of impact from the virus, so, it is now, yes, very likely that the uk economy will face a significant recession this year, and we are in the middle of that as we speak. let's speak to our business correspondent, ben thompson. and first of all — the economic figures, not a huge surprise the economy is suff

he's been speaking to our economics editor, faisal islam.ke. the scenario, i should say it's not a forecast. we have been very careful about this. we don't feel we are in a position to do what i would call a normalforecast. it's really a scenario based on gradual lifting soft restrictions from the beginning ofjune to the end of september. and thereafter, not all the economic activity comes back. there's quite a sharp recovery of economic activity, but we've also factored in, people will be cautious of their own choices, as it were. people in a sense will be cautious. they will not engage and re—engage fully. it's only through until next summer fully. it's only through until next summerand fully. it's only through until next summer and thereafter that activity comes summer and thereafter that activity co m es fully summer and thereafter that activity comes fully back. then finally, we have the question about how much long—term damage to the economy is done. again, we've made assumptions on that. but they are quite limited and the reason for t

first up, faisal islam from the bbc. thank you.he cash flow to pay even their national insurance and pensions contributions and the self—employed that 100 billion is your limit, and unemployment will spike? and, then, more generally, to stephen powis, perhaps, what is happening with the assessment of the joint bio—security centre? a assessment of the joint bio—security centre ? a lot assessment of the joint bio—security centre? a lot was made of this by the prime minister when it was first announced that the lockdown was to be loosened. is it at four, is it at three, is it between them? if it hasn't gone down, why are we loosening things up? thanks. in terms of the employer contribution and will employers be able to meet it, a couple of things. first of all, in aggregate, the scheme is generous. eight months is a long time to have the support. if you look at the total employer contribution over that entire period ona contribution over that entire period on a typical employee average employee on the scheme, it will amount to the emp

here's 0ur economics editor faisal islam.rport there may be no passenger planes right now, but cargo carries on. the pandemic means new patterns in the goods being traded back and forth as the world's major economies face recession. coronavirus per se hasn't taken shipments out of our network, but the quarantine and lockdown and people working at home and factories being closed has. i can't predict the future but what i would say is that business heals. and it will have to be resilient, the bank of england today sketching out that the pandemic and the shutdown have plunged the uk economy into the sharpest downturn in history, a far worse start to a recession than the financial crisis over a decade ago, than any recession ever, but with the hope of a rapid rebound. morning, governor. so quite different in shape to that last recession says the governor of the bank of england. i think it is unprecedented in the history of this institution. i would say it's different in two respects. it's a much sharper downturn, so the initialfa