and i basically assumed as we all did that not only, that fdamental premise is that human beings act in their own long term self interest most of the time. but the general belief of all economists who are forecasting, is while it is not only most of the time but when it isn't, it's random. and you can disregard it because it can't be muddled. what shocked me is when i started to try to actually model it and i was getting extraordinarily, extraordinary results. >> rose: and what were they? >> basically, that so-called animal spirits, which is a term -- >> rose: talking abouthe john -- >> precisely. and they are deep seated aspects of human nature. predictable ways. for example, you can measure fear. everybody responds to fear when their values are say life and limb and net worth under stress. but how they react will be different person by person. by major problem that we deal with here is that fear is the most prominent factor in people's decision-making response and which is far greater than euphoria or greed. the way we do that is if you take a look at the business cycle and put one