in febary, you gave -- actuly you gave us three possible scenarios for stocks. how are those played -- how have those played out? i talked about an l-patte which didn'-- that didn't work out, in factwe're 900 points onhe dow above there now. >> paul: uh-huh. we went down to 6,600 on the dow. i looked for the s&p to go down to 650. that's what we did. we bounsed smartly from there. my outlook right n, certainly the docould move up to say the ,000, 1500 level and s&p up to s 1,100ut in the bigger picte, this is a trading environment. one must trade this market tre this market. to buyn hope won't work anymore my opinion. >> paul: you gave our viewers two buy recommendationsast bruary of a bearish nature. let'see howhey've done. we'll puthem up here. pro shares, ultrahort obviousl haven't fared well. down 34%. and the -- yore not still holding these, i asse? >> we tre in and out of tho thgs. and as y can see from the chart, shortly after i recommended, they we up about 50%. that's what we've got todo with these things you cannot hd onto them. you must tra them. ey a

. >> we started seeing mild recovery, january, febary. we were rocking. thingseally came back. d then once the news headlin once again gotad again in california, we virtually g back to wherwe were in prices and yields in california. but thatsn't true for other states. >> reporter: cen says the reat of defaults in the muni market is real. the number of deults hit a record lt year. but she sees the biggestisks mostly for small, low-qualit issuers of govnment debt. f.m. bonds analyst jay abrams sees a similar picture. >> cities and states wil typicalltalk about cutting programs, talk about reding seice on train lines. ey'll talk about reducing th nuer of times garbage gets picked up. but i nevehear a discussion of maybe should cut back on our debt service. they know the consequencwould be too gre. reporter: the obama administration's stimulus program is ao helping the marketby creating a new class of mis: "build america bonds." unlike traditial munis, the income from these bos is taxable. but abrams ss he's noticed indivial investors are now buying "build amica bonds" for their i.

reporter: overall, the administration estimat the stimulus has creat or saved 150,000 jobs since febaryoblem is that numb is swarved by thelmost 2 million jo lost over that period. and another important administration eimate has turned o to be wrong that the stimulus plan would ke the employment rate below 8%. in fact, uneloyment hit 9.5% lastmonth. economist mark zandy thinks t stimulus will eventually work althoughaybe not generate as many jobs aspredicted. >> think we need patience. the stimulus is just n getting benefits later this year. e the >> the wte hou also counsels tience. officials say the bulk of the stimulus package is just kicking in and they are accelerating spendi wherever possible. for w, they seeo need for a second stimuluslan but -- and this is iportant --y are t ruling out asking for a second packa down the road if needed. >> lisa -- >> melissa and contessa? >> you came upith that numb for how ma jobs were saved or created. how doqutify that? >> well,irst of all, there's the bureau of labor statistics hasndicated there is no official govert measume for determining w