, the fed has acted?oing to speak later in the news conference. >> absolutely. you have the market rally. watch the levels. 1435, 1436 level. 14 r 1450 is the next area you're going to look at resistance. the fed is telling you it's safe to buy. >> you have people making predictions of 1500 on the s&p by the end of this year, before new year's. on the other side of the break, we'll bring you dennis gartman and talk to him about what gold and the rest of the commodity spectrum looks like on the heels of this big fed decision. we'll be right back on "halftime." icans believe they se in charge of their own future. how they'll live tomorrow. for more than 116 years, ameriprise financial has worked for their clients' futures. helping millions of americans retire on their terms. when they want. where they want. doing what they want. ameriprise. the strength of a leader in retirement planning. the heart of 10,000 advisors working with you one-to-one. together for your future. ♪ >>> welcome back. stocks right now

what does that say about the fed culture about the fed kind of isolation from everybody else. well again if you go back historically there was a time when you know f o m c decisions were not communicated at all that they just sort of were drip fed into the markets and as you said you know chairman greenspan was was notoriously unclear i think you know ben bernanke has made tremendous progress this way. but it is it goes a bit against the legacy culture within within the fed and every organization has its culture and its means of communicating there is a formality to the the the fed culture the fed style it is a bit self serious and and. not compared to some other central banks but certainly compared to if you look at mark carney who's now moving to the bank of england where you know the media environment around the central bank is is fairly it's not adversarial certainly in gauged and so it's you know as we move towards these less and less formal environments it's going to be incumbent on the fed to really fight against that legacy culture and get out there and get the message

is that the fed's change from the fed change from tying interest rate guidance to a date to saying this the fed currently anticipates that the exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above six percent and inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the committee's two percent longer run goal a fancy way for saying two to africa cent and longer term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored so they're tying the guidance now to economic data so that's a big shift a big change to talk about what all of this means especially in the context of remember global currency wars which he has been talking about for so much longer way before it became in fashion to do so jim rickards is here author of tangent capital partners or excuse me capital partners author of currency wars the book you see there and really the man to talk about the fed with on a day like today so jim rickards thanks so much for being here thank you are great to be here yet so le

the next fed.ointed out there is a heck of a job ahead of the new fed presidents and you cannot have somebody like warren summers coming will be bombastic and captain ahab steering the ship wherever it may go. you need consensus and steam working cleaning up the so-called mess. cheryl: i want to bring scott martin into this. one of the things you said on the show several times about dollar destruction, and do blame the fed policies for destruction, fair enough. is there someone in your mind who could replace him and may be strengthened the u.s. dollar and strengthen the economy? >> it will be tougher. to gerald's point, we heard it destroyed the dollar. everyone calls this quantitative easing. it is quantitative sneezing. they made the dollar sick over the last couple years with printing. it is natural economics. you make more of something the price of its goes down. the reality is we are already there. another name my would throw out is robert schiller of yale university, great track record on psy

so the whole reputation angle of the fed and the efforts the fed has undertaken to better communicate really have been resonating with me lately and it's you know we've seen a few struggles and misfires out there and i think that's why we're here today yeah so before we get into some of those let's just talk about the importance of communication for the fed we know that it is extremely important for the fed is that as important as the fed's actual monetary policy because that then can print but attitude in expectations about the economy and the fed abilities are what can cause people to actually lever up and affect some of those behavioral decisions right right exactly and within the federal reserve there's a tremendous sensitivity to how policy is communicated i think it would be fair to say that for the for the communication is considered as important as the policy itself it's what determines whether or not policy will be effective i think that's where we start to see some of the struggles and that these these are ph d. economists and professional bankers and people whose natural te

this is just a confirmation that the fed is all in. it doesn't speak to what is going to happen to equity prices on its own, but it does speak to certain things. it speaks to a weaker dollar, probably higher gold prices, and more interday volatility. >> susie: so that begs the question then, what should investors be doing with their money. they know rates are really going to be super low for a while. we know the wall street saying, "don't fight the fed." so where should people put their money right now? >> the most likely scenario is that you get a bit of tranquility and then something breaks. and it breaks in the sense that systems are not built to be run at artificial interest rates. and with the fed being both a player and a referee in markets. so the most likely outcome is the benefit of tranquility and then a higher risk of something breaking. so what we're doing is taking down risks. it is a wonderful time for risk assets. it is time to reduce your risk exposure, and it is time to build a little more inflation protection in your

don't fight the feds or the trend. even on a day like today, it's fascinating in a down day that europe is beating the u.s. beware of the funded extremes, investors across the glop positioned, most underwait places in asia. makes us bullish. david: one sector not fighting the fed are the financial sectors benefiting nicely from the money printing. they got a lot of heat, of course, from regulations en, ect., but so well capitalized the the momentment do you think because they are capitalized and set to grow, that they are a buy at these prices? >> well, excise i agree with. the data, many, many financial firms back to where they were before the financial crisis, i don't know about the earnings part. the earnings outlook for a lot of major firms still is not really great. financials wind up being the best performing sector of the year so far, but not brave enough yet. >> chris, tas nateed with the trend -- fascinated with the trend, but what sectors, and europe is controversial, but which parts? there's southern and nor

look, the fed was in a quandary.was doing this twisting operation, buying the longs and selling the shorts. it no longer has any shorts to sell. so its choice was do we do nothing which would be a modest contractionary policy or do we just leave on the buying of the longs which would be a modest stimulative policy? of course they chose the latter. liz: professor, one of the things ben bernanke also said was with this new move we are quote, not ramping up stimulus except when you look at the fed's balance sheet it is 2.8 trillion. by end of the next year under this program we'll be at 3.8 trillion. what does he mean he is not ramping up stimulus? is he being honest about that or being a little less than up front? >> i'm not sure. i wasn't at the press conference to ask him questions. sounds like the wording was we're not accelerating. that is we are in stimulative mode and we're continuing in that stimulative mode. we're not really ramping it up. i think in a mine nor sense they are ramping it up because of keeping on

so that's his view i said government i should have said fed and i should mention the fed may also be trying to prop up asset prices to avoid a deflationary to leverage ing that is so painful so that's another commonly given reason now with first said to us our viewer are new to just how to thought when the fed makes future announcements someone from capital account should be in the press gallery to ask questions well with first another dear viewers have i got news for you take a look at this and we roll some video see that redhead in the background looking very astute as our own segment producer just dean underhill she wasn't called on this time to ask her question but just you wait we will keep sending her until she gets a question in and in response to our discussion with eric sprott earlier this week for britain's stallions said why so nice to eric sprott and so incredibly rude and disrespectful to peter schiff who was a guest we had on last week. i do not know what people think would be disrespectful or rude about my interview with peter schiff it was a very fair interview yes we

because the fed can print but attitude and expectations about the economy and the fed abilities are what can cause people to actually lever up and affect some of those behavioral decisions. right exactly and within the federal reserve there's a tremendous sensitivity to how policy is communicated i think it would be fair to say that for the for the fed communication is considered as important as the policy itself it's what determines whether or not policy will be effective i think that's where we start to see some of the struggles in that these these are ph d. economists and professional bankers and people whose natural tendencies may not be to communicate in the most transparent mode know that's that the fed is actually very aware of that and it's very sensitive and has a tremendous effort underway to try to be more transparent but as you and i have discussed separately sometimes it takes interesting forms and doesn't always achieve what they're seeking to achieve absolutely and in terms of said speak and its value what is it because i have to imagine that there is a perceived valu

eastern when the fed made the decisions known. take a look at the financials, giving us a sense of how sensitive it got. as you can see, pulled back half a percent to the upside at the moment. bank of america, jpmorgan, citigroup, wells fargo, all of them in the green but not as far as they have been. in economically sensitive group. up about 1.5%. similar story for dupont, gold corporation holding onto most of its leads. let's find out what the traders made of it. you were there in the thick of it at the new york stock exchange. >> as you say, he hadn't said hello and left us at the altar started talking. this is the difference between what the policy says and the reality underneath the policy when the fed chairman, ben explains what they're doing. number one is that we determined the advocacy of the e-zines is not doing the trick, they will go to plan b., whatever that is. he said they do not have an unlimited bazooka so to speak to do this. that put a reality on the market. ultimately what will happen is they will put in a lot

the global u.s., the economy is of the fed, by the fed, for the fed. we have now $65 trillion worth of global assets tied up at zero interest economies. what's that doing for economies? they are looking for yield, junk bond issuance at its highest level ever by allotted, so you're seeing -- that's where this trade is going to keep going. investors setting themselves up for a lot of trouble. the third thing is now basically investors are at sea. what do you do? i'll tell you a very telling story. bank of america 2013 outlook. they are super bullish and hung a 1600 on the s&p next year and said the biggest downside risk improvement in the u.s. economy because that might get the fed to scale back. that's how you show how dependant we are and what little confidence they have of what's going on in washington. >> does that mean if we get a deal any time soon out of washington that the market rallies and the volatility ends, or what are you expecting? >> i think the volatility will end somewhat at that point. as the other guests have said, i think there is tr

under 2%, the fed official target.dy dandy new chart they have been giving us which is a poll the 19 members, their thoughts on the appropriate timing of policy when they should start to tighten policy. two members believe policy tightening should begin next year, 2013. we begin in 2014, the majority, 13 of them believe it should start in 2015 and one believes the fed should wait until 2016, ashley and tracy, back to you. tracy: peter barnes, thank you very much. ashley: unemployment consistent. on the floor of the new york stock exchange as we do every 15 minutes. nicole petallides, the markets did a double take when we got this announcement from the fed but now moving nicely higher. nicole: we have that back-and-forth action as we got the play-by-play. in monetary policy remains much of the same, very accommodated from our fed head. with them doing just that, that basically says we are here for you and we are ready to back just about everything and give the opportunity for the market to continue higher. moving equiti

dow up 80 points until the fed chairman spoke and now we're down 6. heard a lot about how companies will have to lay off workers if we go over the fiscal cliff so why does a new manpower survey show more companies are planning to hire workers in the first quarter of '13 than lay them off. we'll speak exclusively to the company's ceo to try to figure this out still to come on the "closing bell." stay tuned. try running four.ning a restaurant is hard, fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase. you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our support teams are nearby, read

fed's done a lot. it seems to me it has to be much more on the fiscal side than the regulatory side to get things moving -- >> what the heck are you doing then as an investor? what are you supposed to do after all this? >> what i will say, andrew, that one thing that concerned me a little bit is the market actually closed down slightly. that there was initial reaction to it, and you never want to see markets sell off on what should be -- >> doesn't look like it's going to open much higher today. >> right. you don't want to see markets sell off which should be good news. other investors are coming to the conclusion that you have diminishing marginal returns. >> listen the fed can literally drop money out of helicopters. they've been doing that. the problem is it's going directly into bank vaults. the velocity of money continues to go down and it's very, very hard -- >> so give me the investment idea. >> the investment idea to me is that it's not going to help. and that i think the other -- we actually t

will there be a fed policy? admitted he bernanke did say that 6.5 -- >> isn't he going to stop buying treasuries and mortgage dash back security -- >> hold that thought. >> okay. >> what happens between 6.5 unemployment and 5.5, which is the natural rate. or where the fed thinks the long run unemployment rate. is when do you do that? and finally, the thing that i would come back with t.to, whate gauges for qe. there are two policies, tyler, and two rules. qe policy is not the -- >> is bond buying. >> it is different from the rate policy, which is tied to 6.5% unemployment. what we need to do, what your other investor guys, is sell me a derivative that takes my bond portfolio and henls my equity portfolio to those two numbers. because remember, we had a time limit mid 2015, that correspondents to the time in the bonds. i don't have a product right now that will protect me for 6.5% unemployment and 2.5% -- >> someone is on the derivative right now. >> i should do that. >> don't you have an incredible need to open

me versus giving out the treatment to the disease that was originally meant to fight but what the feds really fighting is the depression that they won't use that word we've been depressions and two thousand and seven we've had zero interest rates since two thousand and they will probably have them until two thousand and fifteen so whether friday is deflation and depression now things and we say depression because rates have been there for so long that there's just nothing at all we have a very low growth when you can have growth in a depression the problem is you don't get trend growth trend growth is sort of four four and a half percent something like that we're getting one one and a half percent sometimes two percent a good quarter so when you're when you're trying to grow so it's it's the gap between trend growth and actual growth that is depressionary and also deflationary the fed's frightening that now the fed's very good at telling you what they're doing they spend chairman spend an hour and a half answering questions and told you what he's doing they're very opaque about saying

>>> welcome to fed ex field, are the redskins are smelling blood in the water. this sold out crowd is about to let loose. welcome into nissan sports xtra. i'm scott smith. the redskins have 3-point lead with under 3 minutes to play. try to close this thing out and head to the postseason for the first time in five years. try to close in on that seventh consecutive victory. there are some big performances all the way around for the redskins. let's start first defensively. allowed less than 300 cowboys total yards and picked off tony romo three times. rg3, not a great performance, just 100 yards through the air. but on a somewhat less than 100% knee he ran for about 60 yards to keep that cowboy defensive honest. alfred morris, closing in on 200 yards rushing. absolutely shattering the franchise season mark in terms of yards rushed for in a season. clinton portis was on hand. rob jackson with an interception, and now the skins are trying to milk this clock and work it down to zero. already have an idea of what they will play in the first round of the playoffs if the

but the thing is, if the feds, if dr. bernanke's policy is one that encourages more transparency from the fed and they are going to use this means of communication, then have you to be consistent. the minute we aren't consistent on that -- >> back to the original question, what does it maeb ean terms of prediction for 2013? >> don't ignore her. >> i am not used to being ignored. >> really, tie it all in. >> basically when you are facing a world -- let me back up one second. i could colorado hauld have giv advice three and half years ago. and if you had just done that and chaenged, you would be a winner. think i everyone gets too caught up in drn- >> what was the advice. >> be long security, be long gold. >> has anything changed as a result of the environment of the confusion we are in. >> the one big change is that rates wsh treasury rates, are ridiculously low and there is no value there. but in terms of credit securities, long equities, long gold, in a world where we are just printing money and that the only policy -- >

poll, we asked, fed chairman bernanke is rating. how would you grade the fed? f, the fed needs to stop all easing and let the economy reset. wow. new york attorney general announced a push for more disclosure today by proposing new regulations that would force nonprofit groups to disclose more of their political activities. here to explain further is the new york attorney general himself, eric snyderman. welcome back to "power lunch," mr. attorney general. good to have you with us. >> good to be here, tyler. understanding who exactly is effected here and how. these are 501 par c-4 groups. who are they? >> 501 c 4 groups aren't like c 1 where they have more restrictive activity. they can be lobby or other things that intersect between public policy and politics. they are not supposed to engage in campaign activity, however, other than to really a very sort of dimin muss extent. >> what are names that i might recognize, mr. snyderman? >> 25014, in new york i regulate the chair knits new york state. we have thousands of charities. including c 4s, from the rifle as

nobody understands this at the fed. >> you're right. what about the fed, harry?you pleased or unhappy with the fed action this week? what do we have going now, qe4? >> it's absolutely desperate that you have to keep upping the ante, and showing how weak the economy is. we're still in critical care, on life support, and we'd be in big trouble without $1 trillion in stimulus. in europe the stimulus stopped working in 2012. in 2013 the stimulus is just not going to make an impact. these more wealthy people that will be spending will be hit by more taxes and they will slow down and i think that you're going to see the economy be much worse in 2013, but, you know, we may get more stimulus first in china and europe so i think it's going to be see-saw first half of 2013 and then i think the markets will head down seriously in the second half of 2013. >> but, again, to his point, the wealthy includes savers, both corporate and individuals, grandma and grand past the fed is killing them. >> killing them. >> so if we don't reball the equation, i don't think we'll make any

i think most people expect exactly what eric miller was talking about from the fed. and bern bueno ben bernanke hasn transparent and telling people well in advance what he is going to do. the $85 billion should continue building up for our taxpayers balance sheet. >> susie: how does all of this play out in the markets. all of the bond buying, companies are still holding off from hiring and spending, and now the risk, possibly of a recession. how does it play out in the markets for 2013? >> what has happened, with all of this cash going into the market -- into the economy, not only from the u.s. fed, but from europe, from the central bank there, as well as from china, don't forget, so we've had this liquidity which has taken asset prices with the stock market and the bond markets, pricing it way up, it is actually helping housing after a long wait. moving into the future, there will be some reduction in really the fear that people have. it is not only a lack of confidence, but it is a fear of things going wrong. as we get day to day, i think the fed has been the only

the fed -- a lot of people blame the fed for everything, seems a little ludicrous, what the fed is saying, listen, guys, compromise and if you don't, you got to expect stocks to go down. consumer confidence coming down, small business coming down, compromise or else here is the future. the future is lower stock market. >> right. >> so i think that there is a -- there is a very funny thing going on. we have rich people coming down to washington saying, listen, we will take our taxes but got to give a compromise. there's this curious where's tim geithner with specific doubts really get this thing going? what do they come up with? what did eamon javers come up with the other day? raise taxes a little less than you thought. he comes out and says, listen, medicare, make it this new able. we'd deal. but it's the president that is -- >> a deal if it gets done, how you get there is a question mark. does he finally need to know they are going to proceed to the increase in tax rates that he wants or close to it, then come with the spending or what comes first? >> the chicken and egg, we are startin

because the fed can print but attitude and expectations about the economy and the fed abilities are what can cause people to actually lever up and.

how will the fed's announcement impact the dollar?ring in paul richards of ubs with your money in motion trade. he joins us on the fast line. nice to talk to you again. >> how are you? >> good, thanks. talk to me first about euro/dollar. are you surprised where we sit right here giving the news we got yesterday? moti leaving early? berlusconi coming back maybe? >> i think the market is overreact ing. at the end of the day it's italian politics and berlusconi we're dealing with. it doesn't surprise me we bounced back to 1.30. it's not a december trade. when we get closer to an election in february we'll start to take a look. it was way too premature to react given all we know about italian politics, scott. >> we're watching the fed i know as you are. how does your trade factor in to the fed meeting if at all? >> look, i don't think the market will get much out of the fed tomorrow than we already know. you know, we're likely going to see operation twist get replaced with longer dated bond buying to the tune of $45 billion. we know that.

feds rund rate. is that the case and more generally can you talk about what this framework that you set up today says about the exit strategy you laid out some time ago and whether that is a evolving or changing. >> that's a good question. first of all, we don't have a precise estimate of the long run sustainable unemployment rate. in the summary of economic projections today as has been the case for a while, is 5.2 to 6.0%. so it could be well less than 6.5%. that gives us some time. but anticipation is that the removal of accommodation, after the take off point wherever that occurs, would be relatively gradual. i don't think we are looking at a rapid increase. that depend on where inflation is and other conditions. but it is -- the path that we're basing these numbers on is one that assumes first of all, as you anticipated, assumes an increase in funds rate first occurring sometime after unemployment goes below 6.5%. but does not necessarily assume a rapid increase after that. what we said in our s

liz: the fed, the fed, the fed. they're not going to do anything, but they might announce some sort of easing that is what we constantly talk about and wonder because that has been the trade. with it had a decent rally, the market up double digits the past year and a half very much in part because of the fed pillow put under there. what do you think happens and will there be tougher trading until then? announce a purchase program about $45 billion per month. that will accompany mortgage-backed buying program announced it is september cme. the fed will be buying up about $90 billion in securities between long dated treasuries and mortgage-backed securities so the fed balance sheet by thie financierthistime next year shor to 4 trillion is compared to where it is today close to 3 trillion. they will continue to monetize the debt, as you and your viewers should know, this debt will not be sterilized so bank balance sheets will continue to expand. lots of capital chasing even fewer yields in the market and that in itself