new fed's talk on monetary policy, a voting member of the fed policy committee says the fed should definitely have more data before it decides to taper its effort. david: oversees it has been a bloody day in egypt. at least 149 people have been killed in clashes between security forces and the supporters of mohammed morsi. liz: a down day for investors. cutting the guidance for the whole year. david: farm equipment giant beer which raised the forecast. beating estimates. liz: federal prosecutors announce charges over the 6 billion plus london wales trading scandals. accused of "fudging the numbers" and in some cases making them up. david: and the tech blog all things d says amazon is hiring staff for a secret warehouse in new jersey. the amazon fresh grocery delivery service that could be coming to the new york area very soon. a very busy day. "after the bell" starts right now. liz: can the delivery truck stop at my house in new jersey first? i love it. we are only delivering to manhattan. let's go to today's move. investment senior equity analyst whose last stock pick is up 11%, and in the p

the fed may actually be in a position now -- i know bernanke is denying this, but i believe the fed may be in a position that in order to remain as stimulative as they are now, just to keep things even, they have to taper to match the decline in treasury issuance as we go through the next year. >> brian, so if it's going -- if it's going to be a little more difficult perhaps to make money in the second half of the year, it must be a stock picker's market more than ever. >> very much so, and, in fact, scott, our work shows the correlations have fallen pretty dramatically. i think a lot of investment managers have missed that. we also show through our work that the top 50 institutional investment management firms in america have been becoming even more so tracking their error very closely in the benchmark, meaning they're hugging the benchmark. and they are indexing, meaning they are worried to give up the gains. i mean, common sense-wise tells you that the market has to have a little bit of a respite. we're up 20%. it's august. this is very normal. we're talking way too -- we're putting

the markets are going to be pushing the fed and the political season is going to be pushing the fed. so the fed is going to be stuck if it doesn't get started soon on cleaning up its policy for the last five years. >> larry mcdonald, do you think the fed is going to get started soon? soon meaning september. my view is soon in september would be a bad idea. wait until the end of the year or maybe longer. what do you think? when do you think they're going to do this? >> i've been in the september camp. i'm going to move. there's a scene in the classic movie "frankenstein" where the doctor loses control of the patient. if you look around the world, that's exactly what's happening right now. the indonesian long bond, the ten year, the ten-year bond has dropped 25 points in 60 days. banks globally own billions of dollars, billions of dollars of government bonds and these government bonds around the world are in sheer collapse. this is going to force the fed. >> great point. let's stay on the scene for a second. india looks like it's hemorrhaging and collapsing. nobody wants to own the rup

there are people on wall street only believe on the fed, the fed.verall, sooner out of this thing, the better. ashley: better. >> might hurt initially. the better. ashley: about time we stood on our own two legs. absolutely. tracy: charles payne, thank you. ashley: still quarter past the hour. check these markets. nicole petallides on the floor of the nyse. what are you hearing on the floor? >> traders watch the dollar carefully and we're watching which is jumping versus rivals. that is something worth noting. we saw the dow jones industrials fall to a level of 14,880. that was a loss of about 122 points. so that was, at the moment, just after those fed minutes were released were at session lows we've seen here in these last few minutes. we have since recovered some of those losses. that is worth noting, the vix, fear index which shot up and pulled back but still has up arrow. on the dow though the market breadth has been across the board not only on the dow but across the board. market breadth is very weak, leaning toward negative side. dow jones i

this is a fed survey. mind if the fed tapirs in september with there would be saying, and no one your opinion on the steering, that they are done. in other words, not that it worked them but that the rest no longer justify the potential reward. they're three and a half trillion on the balance sheet. they can't do anything more. maybe just give it to the free-market even though our economy is not necessarily ready to run on its own. >> you know, i think that what we're in the process of doing, and that think it will be a trading range market for the rest of this year because we're taking a pause because we have to decide whether the great fed med is factor fiction. right now there are a lot of people that think it's fact. you might see that in the survey i don't know. we're cautious about the future. that will slow things down. my point is, let's say we get to the end of this year and the economy is doing okay, drawing had to adapt percenter something, the stock market is around 1650, looking a cake. yields

the split in the fed itself doesn't help the markets. and we didn't get anything that said actually we are going to give ourself the escape clause. >> the market wants more clarity. the market would love the federal reserve to come out and say at this time we are going to do xy and z. they are not going to want to say anything that is too commit al that paints themself into a corner. they will have an opportunity to look at what the market was looking at. if i start in september maybe i only do five or ten not 20 or 25. >> guys, can i point out something here? >> i want to caution against making any interpretation about how the market views these minutes in the first 15 minutes, after they come out. there is a lot of blocked box training that comes out. few human beings about the decisions. i would not draw the conclusion about what the minutes say. i think this is clearly about they would do it. i think the market reaction. the amount of volatility that surrounds fed announcements in the first 15 minutes. you could be 50 points up or do

, what the fed will do next. what do you think was the message of the markets, and just what do you think in general what is next for the market sns. >> i think the skiddishness about the market may be more than the minutes today. i don't know that that provided a lot of additional color but we put a note out we thought the fed would pull back. it's part of the reason for that. again, i'm not so sure the minutes specifically were a function of today's volatility. i think we're just in a fairly skiddish environment for the market, at least in the short-term. >> we know the bond buying will end. what we don't know is when the end will begin. what is your guess? look, i mean, we have no reason to think it will be other than what the consensus believes, which is at least an announcement on september 17th or 18th, which is the next meeting. and maybe an announcement as well as the beginning of a tapering. the treasury is issuing fewer treasuries right now so i hope when the fed does it, they put the tapering in. so th

the fed is trying to play defense. the first attempt to play defense was to talk back that pull back the tapering. the second attempt was to use its second instrument to try to compensate for the effect of the first. the second instrument is experimental forward guidance. would you see now is the fed attempting to convince people to do things by using aggressive forward guidance in order to limit the impact of high interest rates. the one thing to remember, and this is really important, is that we are in a period where the fed is using experimental policies that have not been tested. it is like a doctor that gives you a medication because he or she has to do so that hasn't been clinically tested. when that medication doesn't work well, i will give you a bit more of it. not any better, i give you a bit more. that is why this notion is so important. >> let's talk about the fed's unconventional policy. have we created new sources of financial instability? >> i would say the caveat is it is harder to get out. they need to

nearly twenty six hundred dollars according to alan blinder as a lender of last resort the fed has the authority to lend money to any person government or company it chooses but it's chosen to fill the reserves of the biggest brains. all this monetary doping will eventually have to come to an end just ask a rod and the twelve other baseball players who are on suspension for allegedly using performance enhancing drugs at least they use on behalf of the entire nation's financial brains to continue this conversation follow me on twitter at period in our two you. then it's great to see you again this is manny from breaking the set. and no comments on the chairs today no i like the chairs i've decided ok good let's get to refer stuff like if you like on millet online retail giant may we suggest a struggling newspaper industry amazon c.e.o. jeff bezos recently bought the washington post in a two hundred fifty million dollars deal newspaper revenue has drastically declined over the past decade so what's to gain why what's to gain as well bezos is doesn't exactly have a great track record othe

so the fed is keeping their options open.ve four more weeks of data and another employment report. >> steve, did you learn anything new? >> you know i -- >> from the fed. >> -- i thought the split was a little more than i had thought. it was a very symmetrical in the language, maria, when they said the members shouldn't do something now, and a few members think we should. it tells me there are questions about what to do in september, and it makes me think september is less likely than i had thought and maybe less than 50% possibility, unless the data improves. one of the things i learned is the fed is more concerned about low inflation than i thought they had quite an interesting and robust discussion about it. no particular conclusion. but a substantial part of the committee is concerned about low inflation here. >> yes. gee, they may be backing away from september, maria. >> yeah, we've been saying that. >> yes, we have. >> rick, we've been watching the 10-year, as i am sure you are, it popped, and it's holding unlike the s

>> i read it as the fed was going out of its way to say nothing. they crafted a statement that reflected some developments in the economy but they sent no new signal about their plans for winding down bond buying or changing interest rates. it was a no-news event. >> woodruff: let's talk about the position of being the chairman of the federal reserve. how important a job is this, not

another fed president weighing in on monetary matters saying that the fed could soon begin reducing thee of bond buying stimulus. no one defined it soon. peter barnes is in washington but the latest. a huge question for investors. when will this happen? the speech was canceled, but one voice is loud enough today. >> also not saying when she thought that the fed should start tapering qe. in a speech a little bit ago he said, there has been meaningful improvement in both current labor market conditions and the outlook for the labor market since the fomc launched the current asset purchase program. employment growth has been stronger than expected, and the unemployed married today is more than a half a percent lower than projected last september. in light of this progress and if labor remains on the path that it has followed since last fall i would be prepared to scale back the monthly pace of asset purchases. also the latest fed official to weigh in on the prospects for tapering qe sometimes later this year, chicago fed bank president charles evans said he would not rule out tapering in t

beta the fed it can tell you that buying a six hundred billion dollars in mortgage backed securities but after the first dose the markets tanked and the fed announced another round dubbed q e one in march two thousand and nine and in stop there q.e. two was announced in two thousand and ten with an additional six hundred million dollars was stimulated financial markets such as the stock market but failed to do much to the general economy in two thousand and twelve the fed went all in and announced q e three an open ended economic performance enhancing asset purchase program of forty million dollars a month for the un for seeable future but i don't even that can stimulate the markets enough because the fed then roughly doubled it to eighty five billion dollars a month just a few months later and this is where we are now here's a clip of bernanke outlining the goals of q e three. purchases was initiated last september the committee stated the goal of promoting a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market in the context of price stability and noted it would also be taki

well two trillion dollars of this freshly minted money currently sits at the fed earning one quarter percent interest the fed controls the monetary base or the actual amount of dollars both digital and cash and existence however banks can choose to loan this money and increase what's known as the money supply the fear is that the fed will lose control of those extra two trillion dollars spring high price inflation here is federal reserve chairman ben bernanke speaking about quantitative easing at the most recent press conference. a second policy to be employed by the committee's asset purchases specifically the committee has been purchasing forty billion dollars for a month an agency mortgage backed securities and forty five billion dollars for months in treasury securities. quantitative easing in the us the first began in late two thousand and eight and response to the financial collapse as we've coined it q.e. the fed it continued buying a six hundred billion dollars in mortgage backed securities but after the first dose the markets tanked and the fed announced another round dubbed

no longer listening to what the fed does. that is my issue going forward, i am worried the fed knows they have to be really careful of how they go about this. charles: right now i want to bring in the managing director. we're talking about this week, the normal pullback despite the fact it was the worst month of the year. there is a lot of confusion over what the fed will do. walk us through what you are saying. >> i think we will have a normal pullback because of earnings. i hear this talk about the fed, you and i ha talked abou this, where is the dotted line behind pending bonds and earnings and having the stock market go up or the stock market go down. i don't understand how people in our business continue to support the idea printing of money is pushing stocks higher. stocks will go lower. i don't get it. >> i watched the market and i watch what the market has done. >> how does it connect to earnings, gary? >> it doesn't. but go back to '09 when the fed announces it and printing, the market goes up, the stock market corre

viable the fed has to leave determination of the fed funds rate to the market it no longer will set the short term interest rate in the market and that would really become quite revolutionary for monetary policy in the united states the e.c.b. has used term deposit options to sterilize. interventions in the european bond markets but i should emphasize that many of those options are felt meaning that the european central bank was not willing to pay the interest rates that the banks were demanding now that didn't cause any crisis because the e.c.b. is currently in a loosening mode but if the fed were in a tightening mode and those options were to fail i think you'd see enormous disruptions in the u.s. market i agree with you completely thank you for joining me this is ben stiller author of the battle of bretton woods and the director of international economics for the council on foreign relations. coming up we have an interview with veteran futures trader larry williams we get into some shop talk but we also talk about how he turned ten thousand dollars into over a million dollars in a tr

the feds on fuse too. they are actually not the greatest teller of future events as well. >> we are trying to figure out the fed's hokey pokey. he wants to see the rates head up further. the bazooka you are talking about, letting the market calm down which brings treasury yields down. major support here in the long run and it held in on monday. >> here is the problem that i have. they have been effective with talking down long-term rates when they have tried it. >> it has been five years now. >> here is the problem that i have too. when the chairmanship switches, it seems to he wants higher rates. >> one major thing here that folks in the market the velocity of this move to nearly 3% the fed is troubled with that and they want to walk it back a little bit. the chicago boys have been heard from. >> we will check back later. >> thank you. >> the dow having it's worst period ever. little bargain hunting. sima has been taking a look. >> there is a bright side to every story. even though the market has been und

or fed chairwoman.is decision will be made based on group think. who will it be based on that? >> i think all the evidence is pointing towards president obama and the people close toast him on the economic issues, larry summers right now. i think it is becoming more of a -- a political calculus is the -- is the pullback they will face. others on the left in the united states, is it worth appointing this guy who has plenty of enemies, if they think it is worth it, they'll pull the trigger on that. janet yellen is only of the major candidates expected to be here in jackson hole in the next couple of days. i expect she'll lay low and she moderates one panel but doesn't have a speaking role. i think we're in a strange season where all the candidates are kind of keeping their head down and see how it shakes out. but i think all the evidence is it is point toward larry summers now. >> yellen will be there. she's only going to be moderating a panel. yellen is certainly seen as the more dovish one. and presiden

>> absolutely. >> you think the fed starts next month? >> we do. and what's really interesting about this is if you go back through all of the cycles, there's been a discussion, for example, about low readings of inflation. maybe the fed shouldn't do it, because they're missing the 2% target mandate on the downside. in 1983 1994, 2004, the last three asures were falling. one labor factor improved, the labor market, and it began with the firing slowing, the falling jobless claims, and like nightle tos day, the hiring starts and we've had a pickup in the labor market and that's what triggers the start of the normalization. >> although you may not get any meaningful inflation period in this global system right now. the high productivity based on technology, low wages, based on the fact that the rest of the world is emerging. and while rages are rising in the rest of the world, they're nowhere near in europe or the united states. we could have a new normal of an extremely low inflation environment for many, many, many years. >> i guess the reason i don

david: what could the fed do? the fed has spent so much over the past few years in terms of trying to keep interest rates low. is there anything, if rates continue to go up, that the fed could do to pressure them to come down a little? >> well, first of all, question where, only the market really knows where rates should be. we have artificially suppressed rates. on top of, 30-year rally in the bond market, david. tough realize, rates peaked 30 years ago, a little over 30 years ago at almost 16%. so at the end of this very long bull market, in order to revive the economy and create a wealth effect and all these things those argued for this program argued, we then went through operation twist and we began to buy $85 billion a month in securities and that has driven interest rates to not only lows of recent memory, but the lowest rates in 237 years of the united states history. obviously that is not sustainable. and any trader or any investor worth their salt would know that this can not go on forever. so, it's a qu

you have had a long period of stocks advancing and the fed easing then the fed finally decides as the economy gets better it's time to normalize policy. look, our broad theme is that we think the economy is getting better. and we've reaches a real reflection point. uncertainty has boosted capital investments, labor investments, so things are generally getting better. but the market discounted that. up 20% year to date. >> we are up double digits this year. everyone's talking about the federal reserve and when the fed is going to start lowering that stimulus, winding down, beginning to wind down the $85 billion in bond purchases, what's your take? when do you expect the tapering to begin? >> two things. i think market participants invested, pun intended, with a lot more weight psychologically than it probably has literally, meaning we live in a world of $60 trillion, $70 trillion of securities floating around between bonds and stocks. buying close to $900 billion of those a year then revolving them. it's still not moving needle kind of event when you look at that as a global thing. it'

were good enough for a problem tory then imagine what passes for now and switching gears yesterday the fed released its last minute meeting but it's just more of the same and maybe that will taper maneuvering in the evening and there is however more relevant news that's flying under the radar they've appealed a ruling asking them to lower a transaction fee every time we swipe our debit card unfortunately these lower transaction fees have already been passed on to consumers so later i talked to both ben's. we'll and larry williams about our global markets and up next just be in charge of what's called the carry trade. so what gets to what's in your mind interest. when the first begin talking about tapering last april many investors became worried naturally then no surprise treasury yields shot up so since may of this year or ten year yields are up about one hundred thirty basis points so for more on this we turn to prime interest producer justin underhill just seen how does this have international consequences well when treasury yields increase the spring it affected something known as the

the monetary reins on the fed's balance sheet is. stream of the bloated compared to where it would normally be by the end of the year for example the fed will have one point five trillion dollars in mortgage backed securities which it says it is not willing to sell this means that it will have to use untested mechanisms to tighten monetary policy in the united states and i think that's going to cause some anxiety in the markets yes and one of the other things bernanke he has said himself that he does not want to do this but he could actually sell some of these assets that would be the m.b.'s utilities and the treasuries do you think it's possible that the fed will be forced to be selling some of these assets when it's one of the biggest purchasers and what would be the consequence of. the fed would be willing to sell treasuries under the right conditions but he has already stated that the fed would not sell its mortgage backed securities and that means that it may have to resort to as they said nontraditional means of tightening mone

fed taper and how? when you put the whole picture together, there is a lot of uncertainty the market is now starting to price in. >> our area of expertise at pimco would be interest rates and you're getting crosscurrents here in the united states on the tapering side, rates will rise. if this conflict with syria escalate escalates, rates would presumably go down. which way do you think they are going? >> down than up. the reason why they over shot on the way up. let's also not forget unfortunately, bill, our economy is not maintaining velocity. we're stuck in second gear. so the market overreacted and understandably so but overreacted to talk of fed tapering and now other factors are playing in. only the long term if you're talking many years, we're going to have to normalize interest rates at some point. >> all right. last time that you were on mohammed, you said investors should walk away from risk. you said don't run, just walk away from risk. at that time rates on the ten-year were rising. what is y

other top fed officials will be here like bill dudly, the president of the new york fed, jim from st. louis and john williams from san francisco along with christine la garza head of the imf and central bankers from around the world. big top picks will be whether quantitative easing will be working and if not, what the federal reserve should do instead. is the strategy adequate? the conference beginning tomorrow night with a dinner and academic papers and discussion over the next two days and i think one of the things i'll

well, the fed has pushed it to a crescendo. that changed the whole discount factor in the equity markets. smart business people understand that and also they understand that the cost, if they are depending on bank lending, may well increase sometime in the reasonable future and so they have cleaned themselves up. they are ready to roll. >> yeah. >> but they need fiscal guidance. >> you know, you make so many good points. i could not agree more in terms of clarity. that's what i'm hearing from managers of businesses. ceos, all the time as well. north point you make is the impact on the market. so from practical standpoint, how do you exit from here? you have raised concern in the past that something done the wrong way could lead to market havoc, if not done properly. so what is your view in terms of how to actually begin this wined down? ? a way that doesn't impact stocks, incredibly negatively? >> we have begun to socialize the idea. i think again, we agreed at the table. the chairman should mention that press conference which

he doesn't think the fed should be in a hurry to do that. >> the fed has to do a mandate. we know inflation and employment. if you look at both of the level where is we are, inflation is too low and employment is too high. if you think of the data points we have just gotten in the last month, forget about u.s. corporate earnings in q2 which were soft and everybody is waiting for the second half recovery as far as earnings, i think that's put on hold a little bit from the guidance. i don't see how they can taper here with rates where they are. didn't they kind of affect the change they wanted to through the mouthpiece of may and june. >> the question is do they have to follow through on what they said? remember, as you said, they affected the rate structure, affected the whole thing going out, and there's a sense that maybe we're further -- we're closer to where we need to get than we are from where we were before. 2.80%, 2.90% on the ten-year is probably more than halfway what we need to do but the question is following through and one of credibility. that's one i kept hea

she knows the fed. she's a woman. president likes that too because the president is very cerebral and very smart. the question becomes quite frankly does the president go with someone he knows and trust or make history and go with janet yellen. >> the president was asked about who the next fed chair should be. he pointed out the two things that need to be dealt with. that is the -- >> unemployment -- >> he started with the inflation rate and jobs thing. the way i read it he seemed to be blaming ben bernanke nor not doing a better job of creating jobs with the monetary policy. >> didn't read it that way. >> my point is i wonder what he expects larry summers to do. >> stabilize interest rates and look at this from a quantitative standpoint. >> robert may very well be right but -- >> there you go. >> if that's what the president wants he's moving in the wrong direction. clearly unemployment, the need to create jobs and i think the fed mandate to continue with some sort of qe or some sort of effort to have some sort of mo

form will the story that i would put is that if you go back to the earlier period we always said the feds are clamping down because they were worried about inflation so that meant they raised interest rates brought the economy to a halt we had recessions seventy four seventy five eighty eighty one for those reasons what happens later is we don't have the same sort of inflationary spiral because workers don't have the bargaining power so what you had will go back to the early ninety's you had you know a budget deficit the clinton ministrations that will get the deficit stone and then we're going to rely on low interest rates to spark growth and then actually did happen but the main impact that low interest rates had in growth in that period was through the stock bubble low interest rates will always lead to a bubble but in that situation they did so that's how we got the stock bubble that bubble burst in two thousand of course we got the recession two thousand and one the fischel story that's a short mild recession in reality we didn't get back the jobs we lost in two thousand and five tha

bubbles and how the fed got as here with dean baker in just a minute and here is what's in your interests. i i. i. i. increasingly we live in an economy that's driven by fire that would be finance insurance and real estate now over the last three decades it's quadrupled in size relevant to the size of the rest of the economy here to discuss this and the nature of how financial bubbles are fueled and destroyed is dean baker he's the co-founder of the center for economic and policy research and also author of false prophets dean thank you for joining me so how did we get here in this fire economy over the last three decades well soused part of this long process the u.s. we had this sort of golden era coming out of world war two where we had rapid productivity rapid wage growth for broadly shared prosperity wobblies things were going right that sort of breaks down for a variety reason in the seventy's and then we get a very very different regime beginning in the eighty's and that's really the send and see if finance in over that period you've seen this enormous growth in the financial sector

peter: we have more fed speak on when the fed should begin tapering.t has been a big issue for investors. he will be giving formal remarks in a speech on monetary policy which we expect will cover some of this. he will push again to wait on dialing down quantitative easing. he said "inflation has been running very low. i have been concerned about low inflation. he said it is important for fed credibility to hit that target that it has set for itself. there have not been much indication so far. markets are trying to digest this latest paper talk. the ten year treasury is about flat. since bernanke, the fed chairman, made those original tapering comments back in may, the yields have gone from 1.9% to 2.17%. an etf for the homebuilders is trading lower and is down over 9%. liz: that would be, of course, jpmorgan, wells fargo. thank you very much, peter. watch the ten year. we can actually put that back up so people can see. definitely watch the homebuilders. we are waiting on james bullard to start speaking. every time somebody inside the fed makes public

the fed is trying to play defense. the first attempt to play defense was to talk back that pull back the tapering. the second attempt was to use its second instrument to try to compensate for the effect of the first. the second instrument is experimental forward guidance. would you see now is the fed attempting to convince people to do things by using aggressive forward guidance in order to limit the impact of high interest rates. the one thing to remember, and this is really important, is that we are in a period where the fed is using experimental policies that have not been tested. it is like a doctor that gives you a medication because he or she has to do so that hasn't been clinically tested. when that medication doesn't work well, i will give you a bit more of it. not any better, i give you a bit more. that is why this notion is so important. >> let's talk about the fed's unconventional policy. have we created new sources of financial instability? >> i would say the caveat is it is harder to get out. they need to

vaults to make sure that the gold is actually there but the feds first refused to permit germany to exult examine its own gold then the germans apparently assisted in the fed did open only one of nine rooms but they were not permitted to either enter or touch the gold the german government has stored about half of its pool supply with the us federal reserve so they are understandably nervous this makes not only germans nervous of course u.s. financial institutions have a history of selling things that don't exist one example last year goldman sachs were proven to be selling gold certificates to the public saying they were backed by real gold in their vaults but the story leaked out of they'd fact held no gold at all and were doing so called fractional reserve gold banking on the basis that few people would want to claim their gold at any one time and looking further back in history during world war two the fed came to many countries egypt like america and africa. and told them their gold holdings might not be safe because of the war and that they should permit the fed to take all of

the fed minutes. >> breaking the fed minutes. >> straight ahead.at 10:00 a.m. existing home sales. plus, target in the red after earnings report this morning. that stock is down more than a percent. find out how you should be playing it. thank goodness we're going to be joined by also classy but dodgy kelly evans, simon hobbs. it's all coming up on "squawk on the street." (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. voted "best investment services company." in a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking

louis fed president bullard suggests that the fed wait for more factors in the economy before tapering the bond buying program. he says caution needs to be taken basing forecans for policy alone. david: 7 million-dollar i insider-trading scheme. sec says the employee repeatedly obtained earnings data and traded in advance of its public release. that is a no-no. "after the bell" starts right now. david: let's get right to today's action. we have david steinberg, with three ways for to you play the market and tim mulholland in the pits of the cme. tim, i want to start with you. i want to look at gold. never has the gold price been directly ccnnected to the jobs report as what we saw this morning. we have a figure to put up. as soon as jobs report came out there was positive news. let's look at a five-day chart. that he is where you see a spike to the downside a tremendous spike to the downside right as earnings, right as the jobs report came out. there it is. and the reason for that was because at first it was all positive, meaning that the fed would not be printing as much money as it h

how different could the fed look next year? >> this is a very complicating factor for the fed.ing to rely more on forward guidance on interest rates and less on qe at a time when the very structure of the fomc is very much up in the air. we have got, as you know, a number of openings coming up, and the chairman himself is leaving and that obviously is a very contentious battle right now. so it really makes it very complicated to rely on forward guidance when we don't even know what the fomc is going to look like six months from now. and it is also complicating their ability to communicate. we haven't heard from the vice chair. she's usually very reliable. >> that's exactly the problem we have got here with bank of england. you know, if you're issuing forward guidance and getting new members joining your board, are you binding them to the forward guidance had they're supposed to be independent. i don't know how that's supposed to work. >> it is a complicated thing. for the bank of england hasn't been working out so well, has it? >> we're just about to start this experiment, we'r