the fed would not stand by.iseits scouate orceanksase i the centraba the sult--foreiginvestors the earned more interestby. itaiseits scouate orceanksase i and left their money in u.s. banks. th ended theoldrain. t raisg thdiscount rate had other, less fortunate, consequences. if the federal reserve raiseshe discount te, that transmits a message banksnd the money market thatt wants be strictive. for the economy as ahole, the result was disastrous. high interest rates discouraged borrowing, choking off business credit. more businesses failed, more jobs lost, the country was pushed deeper into the great depression.ed. well, professor, if you graded the fed-- a, b, c, d, f-- what would it be in the 1930s? i would grade it as an "f" applying today's standards. probably a "d," applying even the standards-- the most advanced standards of tt day. sure, you can criticize the d. it made mistakes. but what it did wrong was a matter of degree, mostly, ther than... total mistakes of policy. the men who met around this table

they see the fed hitting the higher rates in 2016 than the prior survey. whatever the outcome it seems the market has new faith in the new fed chairman janet yellin. 30% think they can execute the monetary policies smoothly, up 10% from the last poll, just 7% believe it will end badly with the stock market. half the surveys. and the fed chair gets higher marks for being clear, even better marks then her predecessor. will it last? yellin has a tough month to go, and she will need every bit of market faith she can gain to be successful. for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >>> he is an economist at the center for policy priorities and former chief and economist economic policy adviser to vice president joe biden. jared, good to see you again. is the economy good enough in your view for the fed to stop buying bonds and raise interest rates? >> well, definitely low on the latter. i think that the tapering off on the bond buying program, we should get to the end of that in late october has been going along steadily and has not shaken the economy mu

only fed ex goods.what tiris driver was doing on august 8th, 2011. after picking up packages from the distribution center just outside of sacramento, quinteros failed to stop his 25,000 pound box truck for stalled traffic along interstate 5. he crashed into donald taylor's parents' car at around 70 miles per hour. >> their bodies were burned beyond recognition. >> the high school sweethearts were killed instantly before their vehicle burst into flames. the accident also killed a toddler, injured seven others and totaled six cars. >> there is a guy rolling out of the vehicle who just got out before the whole car went up. >> reporter: the truck driver survived. >> i can't stop shaking right now. >> reporter: according to this accident report, quinteros had no valid license, let alone a commercial license to deliver fed ex packages. and tiris was doing business without a valid operating authority. >> just a multitude of violations, things that should have been red-flagged by the department of transportatio

the fed waiting too long to hike.you monitor where inflation expectations are and wage developments, they are basically where they want to be. >> so you are acknowledging there is a difference between -- >> not at all. i did not say that. no., bolivia, but -- good, olivia, but no. perhaps of at neurotic focus on the words considerable time, and i think to the extent that phraseology is left -- remember, at her march press conference, chair yellen was asked how long is a considerable time and she said six months. i think the folks who are more dovish will look to see if the element stays. clearly if it is taken out in conjunction with the 2017. shifting up, that will be viewed as a hawkish communication from the fed. >> the statement comes out at 2:00 p.m. and the press conference at 2:30. the question is, what does fed taper mean for emerging markets? we will discuss that yet -- we will discuss that next. who communicates better, janet yellen or ben bernanke? tweet us @bsurveillance. ♪ >> this is "bloomberg surveillan

what the fed is doing.the first thing. the second thing is those bond yields, particularly the ten-year is maintaining that 2.62 level, level that it rose to coming out of the statement. that's a hawkish signal. stocks seem to be like, everything's fine, full steam ahead by the federal reserve. so i'll say there's a very mixed message for markets here. i don't know that you come in tomorrow and see one coherent headline about how markets reacted. >> fair enough. it's just irresistible to pair the all-time closing high with the biggest event that happened today. but point taken. tim, i wonder what you would recommend. looking across not only what we've just heard from the fed but also on the back of the chinese central bank doing a couple of things to perhaps shore up that economy and the impact that's already had on commodities, where does that leave us? give us a couple of ideas here trading-wise? >> i don't think you can make a blanket statement. on china, that market deductible matter about the macro. it

fed unfortunately has history of this. they have a history of not only printing money but intervening with interest rates that prompt malinvestments. what worries me, melissa, you're starting to see cracks in the facade. high-yield bond. leveraged loans, they're starting to hit multi-month, in some cases multi-month lows. that is sign that the good times in terms of credit. melissa: steve moore, real quick, less than a minute. what is the reaction? >> i'm with richard fisher. i think that should happen faster. rates need to go up. one thing i never understood is why wall street thinks that the tight money is bad for stocks. >> you know why? >> they're good for the economy. >> the reason why because they can sell more alibabas. i heat to say it. >> it is crack cocaine. crack cocaine. >> 100% agree. melissa: james freeman, 10 seconds what do you think. >> this is seen as tradeoff we have to accept for labor markets. i remind people we still have terrible labor market six years after cheap money. melissa: nobody move. we're m

fed seeing inflation moving further. risk to outlook for economic activity and labor market are nearly balanced. let me tell you what the principles are maintaining reinvestment of principle from their quantitative easing programs. the policy normalization saying we agree on a set of principals. they will adjust funds rate first as needed to adjust funds rate because of money in the system they adjust the interest on excess reserves and then use reverse only as needed and only to the extent necessary. the balance sheet they will reduce in a gradual manner by ceasing to reduce principle. that is they don't intend to set assets pretty much. the fed will hold no more securities than necessary monetary policy efficiently and effectively. these are statements of the fed preparing to normalize rates while trying to say it doesn't mean we will raise rates sooner. >> thank you very much. the dow just turned negative. it was at 171558 and at 17,127. we have seen stocks fall off about 30 points. the ten-year yield up three basis p

the only way there can be bailouts is if the fed is easing. the fed has to be printing money. if they are tightening and racing interest rates and banks fail no one is there to bail them out. congress doesn't have the money they have to get it from the feds but the federis are taking money from the banking system so the banks fail and when that happens the shareholders are going to lose money, the bond holders going to lose and the depositors are going to lose. the fdic only has money if they get it from the feds. so if we have an increase in interest rates, the banks would fail and the government would have to default on its debt and the country will implodes. that is why the federal reserves can talk about raising interest rates in the future but they are never going to do it. when the feds first did qe and said it was temporary i said no it isn't. they will do it again i said. and they did do it again. i had qe2 and i said there is going to be more qe's than rocky movies. it is never going to end. it can't end because it can't work. whenever the federal reserve does qualita

>>> the fed, the economy and your money one hour until the fed's latest statement followed by janet yellen's news conference, investors focusing on two words in the language of that statement. here they are, considerable time. will they be there? will they be amended or left alone and what will it mean for your portfolio? the early reviews are in. how good or how bad are the two new iphones? the 6 and the 6 plus. we have one of the first reviews of the 6 plus coming up. airlines flying high. i am supposed to stay here, ladies and gentlemen. not so fast. in the midst of one of their most profitable years ever but should they be making more money. and shares of reebok robotics. one week of 87% but taking a -- rewalk's exo skeleton helps people with lower limb disabilities get back their mobility. they can stand and walk by themselves. rewalk's ceo will join us live with a demonstration. sue was at the nasdaq today. >> we will have gnat intthat in it is fed day. the dow setting a new record high right now up nine points. the s&p and the nasdaq up for the second day although the s&p has just tur

you are not too far from the fed over there. >> i have my ears trained i am here with a couple of feders and listeners. we will talk about what the fed might do. folks, welcome. we just saw that the dow is at a record high. have investors decided the fed can't hurt them anymore? >> so much talk about how the fed might take out this sentence about keeping rates low. there has been a rethink of that correctly so in my view. i think the fed being conservative and dovish would be reluctant to take that sentence out. they might add qualifiers. given that the economy continues to proceed as they expect there isn't a compelling reason to take that sentence out right now. >> what we know is that interest rates are likely to go up and that the federal reserve is going to stop buying bonds at the tonnage that they have been doing. the markets seem to have diskounlted all of that. >> seems they have been doing a good job without having to do actually that much at all. as the previous survey that you guys mentioned showed investors are moving forward the time of liftoff. investor put out a note t

separately, down here, more portly, this is where fed policymakers believe the fed funds rate will be at the end of the calendar year. 2015, the median figure was him -- 1.13%. dan -- janet yellen will have to explain why the numbers are creeping up and does it reflect outliers, or is the consensus view still consistent with what we saw in june. just to tell you, interest on excess reserves, we know separately, we use it as the repo facility. proceeds from the vents bond holdings will only end after the interest rate starts to acquire. the federal make economic contingents to determine if the reinvesting should come to a close. a lot for janet yellen to consider. >> all right. peter cook, thank you. let's get quick reaction from our senior markets correspondent. julie hyman, the market has fallen right now. >> they are right now but that is an important distinction. now they're coming down. takes time for investors to look at the statement trying to figure out exactly what it all means. have the s&p 500. and thene spike up sharp movement downward. it is a sharp movement downward, left

the fed can do whatever they want. at the end of the day, the markets lose the term in the long bond. prepared, dying derivatives. >> what can you do if that happens? >> the derivatives get extensive, so it is a concern. we are hopeful that it will be slow because the fed is conscious of the fact that the past has been unable in a real way to regulate the longer bonds. >> we see housing rapidly increasing from recession lows. but is there a sense that whatever rate increase happens or whatever happens in the market share with rates that we will have more workers in the housing market? >> that is one of the concerns, that we would not be able to. in the beginning of the year, art of that had to do with the weather, but part of it had to do with interest rates. the fed is trying to avoid that. >> basically housing is not going to come back completely. we still only have about 400,000 or 500,000 housing units built. year. >> when you talk to some of the homebuilders, they sound very happy about the prospect. the market is

louis fed president james bullard. they will be speaking at st. louis fed conference. spur the markets one way or the other. >> they certainly can. hopefully in new york we'll not watch traffic jammed up. >> yeah. >> "the willis report" is next. gerri, looking at new warning for consumers regarding alzheimer's. gerri: that's right, cheryl and dave. thanks for that. the price of one of the nation's most popular alzheimer's drugs is going through the roof. we'll have details. coming up on the show, is at&t or verizon better carrier for your new iphone? what about smaller companies that are rivals? we'll have the answer. >>> protesters back on wall street this time complain about climate change but is american big business really the big problem? >>> saving money on soda. can home soft drink machines, yes there are soft drink machines you can use at home, will they save you cash? we'll have the answers. "the willis report" where consumers are our business starts right now. gerri: we begin tonight for good news in the market for consumers looking for a car. prices of used

we have the results from the latest fed survey. it looks like wall street is putting more faith in janet yellin. >> i was very surprised by the results. 37 people we surveyed and asked about fed communication. let's see what we got here first. let's see. do we have any of it? let me tell you what it said. it said will it end badly or well. 44% now think it will end smoothly up from 34% in the prior whereas we asked badly is 34% and now down to 17%. is communication clear and credible? 73% say fed communication is somewhat or very clear and credible. that is more than bernanke ever had. she will need this if she is going to negotiate this type of change in interest rates. 49% believe the fed is -- there is the chart. 73% say clear and credible. 22% say not clear and credible. next one the same thing. >> clear and credible because they never varied from what they said they were going to do. >> you could have responded to my survey. we had john copter -- can you go to the first quote that we had stacked up there. brian was not prompte

of course it is fed day. the fed had huge influence on what the markets did. we have brian boil, from boyle capital. cautiously optimistic as stock valuations remain stressed. mark travis from intrepid capital managements that lee picks for investors. todd horowitz from the pits of cme. todd you and i share a concern, a great concern about what janet yellen is doing about the fact that middle class has not been keeping up with the upper class in terms of gaining on the stock market because of what she has been doing. however, you tell me that you're long on the markets, is that right? >> no, i, as i said last week, hi, david. i said last week, my long term retirement accounts are long because i don't play with those. those are invested money. my trading accounts are short. david: i see. >> i want to be short here. i think what janet yellen doing here is insanity. my question is, is, if the economy is doing so well and growth is coming back and everything is great, why can't they raise interest rates and bring the middle class in. last week you asked me if i th

i think that the fed is certainly not going to be hurrying. they will keep policy accommodating still for quite a while. so i think on the whole that there are risks big out there, global risks, does the data look a little better in the u.s. and a little more soggy in other parts of the world? we have to keep an eye on that. >> there were two dissenters who will be leaving the voting rolls on the market next year. has janet yellin proved she is in charge of the fed fully? >> i think so. of course it is a consensus building institution, and you will never get everybody on the same page, people have different views on how the world works. i think the dissenterss are on the edge of the core so are not really reflective of the opinion. i think the chair, janet yellin has done a good job. >> josh fineman, great to have you here. >>> and one of the sticking points for the federal reserve has been the inflation rate running below the central bank's long-run forecast. and today, more evidence of low inflation at the cash register. cons declined 2/10th

one of the big stories of this week had to be the fed. the market was all amped up anticipating that the fed might end up tinkering with it's statement. it didn't which had everybody thinking that rates are going to stay low for forever. is that the right assumption? >> forever is a very long time. that would be an exaggeration however the fed has been very cautious in with drawing it's stimulus and they're very worried about rattling recovery and pulling the carpet out from under the people who need the fed's support the most and so they aren't going to move until they actually have to. the considerable time that the fed has said it will wait before raising interest rates is linked to the end of its bond buying program. now that won't actually end until october. so the fed still has several more meetings to figure out exactly how it wants to convey it's plan for when it eventually raises interest rates. >> it will eventually have to raise them. i wonder what investors should do to prepare if anything right now. >> one of the things we po

what the fed is doing. he will be here to explain. >> which is very different from the way we used to think about the fed. don't listen to what they are saying, just pay attention to what they are doing. but now, paul is turning that upside down and taking a different tack. we will talk with him about that coming up. >>> and would you mcbrunch? mcdonald's issing an ling to get into the brunch business. yeah. really. we are not kidding here. is this the type of move that could turn that stock around finally? >> it is the underperformer today, the nasdaq is off about four points. s & p down one point to 1994. some of the other signals from financial markets, bill, from the strong dollar to inflation expectations to what's happening on the yield kur that have has people talking ahead of that fed meeting next week. >> let us talk about all that coming up in our "closing bell" exchange today. we have heather hughes, peter anderson from congress wealth management, jim lowell from adviser investment he is and rob

have a listen to the fed chair herself. no mechanical interpretation of what the term considerable time means. repeatedly, the decisions that the committee makes about what is the appropriate time to begin to raise its target for the federal funds rate will be dated and. forhere's my bottom line you, caroline. nobody knows what a considerable time even means, not even janet yellen. i listened to the whole press conference and had a headache by the end of it. greenspan used to say, if you think i was clear, you probably misunderstood what i said. she avoided everything she was said to meet >> she has unemployment is still a concern, the labor market is still a concern. things, the side of market reacts to that and suddenly you are seeing interest rates rising that much faster than they did. >> janet yellen has come out in let'sst and said that -- bring up the dots. have a look at these dots. it's where they think federal reserve rates will be in 2015-2017. 1.375%.at a rate of that is higher than when they put these forecasts

ela n, one of the big stories had to be the fed anticipating that the fed might end tinkering with her statement. >> i think that would be an exaggeration. the fed has been very cautious in withdrawing its stimulus. they are very worried about rattling recovery and pulling the carpet out from under the people who need the fed support the most. and so they are not going to move until they actually have to. the considerable time that the fed has said it will wait before raising interest rates is linked to the end of its bond buying program. that one won't end until october. the fed has seven more meetins.s >> i just wonder what investors should do to prepare, if anything. >> one of the things, we see the bond market as having interpreted the action as a little bit of a tightening. within the statement, there is a survey as to what they think interest rates will be over the next years and the expectations went up. we saw a bond yield start rising and that has been continuing over the past couple of months with stronger economic data. we do think we're getting closer to higher rates. i sti

would be and the fed is here.hat xaccounts for the difference? >> i think it's the fed's expectations, your survey is simply saying the inflation is probably the primary factor driving any fed aggressive tightening. and in terms of the federal funds rate, and we don't see it. >> john, what are the problems in the economy that the economists want to see, the government or somebody address? >> well, two big issues. one is the housing continuing to be much weaker than expected. housing formation is picking up with jobs being created, but the housing start numbers remain pretty weak. then second, just consumer disposable income. what is going to kick that into gear? a lot of jobs being created are part-time jobs. not all full-time jobs. and the wages in total compensation are modest. >> thank you for joining us and congratulations on becoming the president-elect for business economics. back to joe in new jersey. good morning, joe. >> good morning, steve. and we'll be watching to see what mr. evans says later. >>> comi

the fed wants price stability but when it comes to oil the fed wants it lower.t creates nothing for this country or it's people. how about food. the food price index has been crashing back to levels we haven't seen in four years. ever hear that good news told? here i want to tell good news. the fed wants price stability but when it comes to food the fed wants food prices lower so we have more money left and go to the supermarket. when the fed raises rates oil and food prices typically fall. that's not lapping without raising rates. i say terrific. at the same time there's no inflation at the retail level because the internet lowers the price of everything by pitting companies against each other. amazon and the chinese company that will soon come public alibaba are companies that serve to lower the cost of the consumer to you of goods. you can save a fortune on that thing. that's what the fed wants and doesn't need to raise rates to do it. that's terrific. the marketplace and the internet are doing the fed's job for them. why do we hear the fed has to take action

the fed has been -- over 100 years, under the fed a dollar depreciated 94%. the fed made presidents, broke presidents, was behind presidents, was propping their campaigns, propaganda, et cetera. what do you do with it did when we started lamenting that plan, that drastically or program? what do you do, how did you with the fed? something you haven't raised. [inaudible] >> okay. [inaudible] >> i'd like to come and speak to the people. since the day we got the fed whose only to have the job responsibility is protect the value of the dollar and ensure full employment. since that day we that mass inflation, massive drop in the dollar and massive problems with unemployment. so i believe that it is at the root of many if not most of our problems, ziad. i agree with you. i would audit the fed. >> weight. the question is would you curtail the power of the federal which end of the fed, or what exactly speech i would like to end of the fed. reality, we're probably had to audit the fed and curtail the power of the fed. the reason people are so scared in government and t

nothing as important as a fed day.r, david speaker, thank you for your time. >> thank you. >>> meantime, the alibaba road show hitting london today, days before it goes public. seema mody is there with the latest. >> that's right. it's here in london, the financial hub of europe, where investors from london, paris, barcelona, and berlin are in town meeting with alibaba's top management to learn more about the chinese e-commerce giant. sources inside this building right now say the focus of these meetings not only on alibaba's growth prospects in china but its ability to expand internationally and at some point compete in markets like the u.s. as well as europe. another talking point at these meetings that we're hearing about, valuation. alibaba is deliberately pricing below market expectations to leave room to run. as appetite grows for the ipo, we're told plenty of hedge funds based here in europe are trying to get a piece of ipo, but it's not certain if they'll be allocated shares. the onus really on institutional sa

as fed chair janet yellen gears up for news conference tomorrow. investors waiting to see what, if anything, could change in the fed's statement. thanks to jon hilsenrath, extremely knowledgeable about the fed and can read the tea leaves better than anybody. jon, you came out online on the wsj. let's tell our investor viewers what you said and what got them so excited and why the market reacted the way it did? >> there's a debate going on in the market right now. and actually inside the fed as we speak, about whether to change two words in their policy statement. the words are considerable time. and the question the fed has been saying sing march that it expects to keep interest rates near zero for a considerable time after their bond-buying program ends, the bond-buying program ends in october. the question is whether they're going to take the words out of the statement and say something else, and i offered analysis, we had a chat on our website today, and you know, my expectation is that they keep those two words in the statement but qualify them

fed talk isn't tightening.y when that happens, it spruces higher volatility. >> how would you describe yesterday's speech? >> i mean, people can call it whatever they want. again, it's dovish in the sent that the two most important parts remain. everything else is people trying to get too cute by half. they left those two items in. that is what a lot of people thought they would amendment and they didn't. that is a dovish development. the fed rates are expected to rise more da mattockly in the out years. at the end of the day, that's a good thing. the fed is getting more confident about growth. that is probably premature, but the point of the story is the general narrative hasn't really changed. it's finishing its program and is going the raise rates in the spring or summer of next year. >> stick around. we want to see what that means for equity markets. >>> coming up next, you asy arabia's chief. no boots on the ground and the fight against isis. stay with us. want to change the world? create things that help

of course it is fed day. the fed had huge influence on what the markets did. have brian boil, from boyle

fed chair janet yellen, if the improvement is more rapid than the fed anticipates, it could move up the timetable. >> we're in the view of the summertime, but the most questions we're getting is, you know, could it be earlier? could it be -- particularly, people have their eye on the march meeting of next year as a possibility, again, conditional on the jobs numbers looking, you know, good over the remainder of the year. >> reporter: key areas to watch in audition to jobs, the labor force is up by 200,000 as more people are attracted back into the stronger labor market. people working part time for economic reasons up a small 22,000 over the past three months and real wages, well, after adjusting for inflation, they are up .02%. that's a number yellen thinks can be much higher. what would it take for earlier rate hikes? >> i think we have to see, you know, perhaps unemployment down more than just a tick, two ticks or so and we also have to see, you know, evidence of wages really starting to pick up. >> a rate hike three months earlier than planned isn't a big deal. what would matter is

the fed might hike interest rates. might be a problem for high-yield bonds because people say, look, this area of the market benefited the most from the fed stimulus. if the fed takes the party away, this area will see decline. they don't want to be caught on the wrong side of a market that is getting harder to trade in. >> it's getting less liquid. >> it felt a little bit -- i'm hearing that the liquidity feels shallow. >> the tone has changed. over the summer, because the volume was so low, it did not gain any traction. it's different now. >> if the fed is going to keep rates low for longer -- bill gross was on talking about how this is going to be the persistent environment for a while, this is the time to go to corporate's. what if it's not or what if something prompt the fed to hike rates faster than expected? that could derail the rally. >> you say a lot of high-yield bond sales have come through. what about investment group on sales? >> there is more persistent demand on the investment side because it is a safer

that is another reason for the fed to drag their feet. the dollar has become an issue for the fed.were never concerned about it but now they have to be. reason why iother think 2016 looks like it is going to be the date they are going to hike. >> i want to get your take on bill gross and his departure from pimco. that came up,ics i believe tom keene brought it up as a question, has the fed in some way forced his hand? in other words, in this low interest rate environment is it increasingly tough for fixed income managers, especially one of bill gross's size, to get the returns that they had in the past year? should we blame janet yellen for his underperformance? ai think that is a bit of reach. the low interest rate environment affects everyone. ng to't see anyone wanti leave vanguard or fidelity. what you are saying about the low interest rate environment and that is changing the way fixed income is being viewed. theses why we are getting unconstrained funds being popular, because they have the ability to go short in case there is a rising rate environment. i think what is happeni

of front and center is the fed -- upfront and center is the fed.f you look at the ecb , what can they buy? this is a market they need to create. that will take time. shrunk balance sheet has 33%. >> will be back in a couple of minutes. ♪ >> still too many people who want jobs but cannot find them. too many who are working part-time who would prefer full-time work. too many who are not searching for a job, but would be if the labor market were stronger. >> that was janet yellen. a dovish tone after yesterday's policy meeting. she maintains a commitment for low rates for a considerable time. when rates start going up, they might be going up faster. our markets editor was speaking to the chairman of the world's biggest wealth manager. he joins us now from zÜrich. >> i was surprised. we chatted and he said the risk is that the fed is too far behind the curve. the two schools of thought that are involved in the federal reserve. when you look at last night announcement and the good old dots, the dots say it is all over. rates are going higher. he had is

k, the fed will be in focus today.the market will be holding on to the and that is considerable time. that will give us an idea of whether the fed will raise rates sooner than expected. on that note, let's switch over to the ftse cnbc 3 hup. up about 12 points on the day, diving into the european markets, as well, you will see that it was positive across the screen the last time we checked. gains continue throughout the day. the italian, german market up about 40 points. the ftse 100 up about 111 points. but, again, as some studies or polls suggest, the no vote is gaining momentum. we're seeing the ftse 100 higher on the day. >>> and the day is finally here, seema. the janet yell.'spress conference comes this afternoon and much of the anticipating will rest on whether the fed will tweak its guidance. how do you trade on these markets? >> it hasn't changed through the entire career. a rate hike discount around the middle of next year and shallow rise in rates thereafter. we are in the minority that think the language ch

you need an exceptional report to get the fed move -- the fed to move earlier. this amazing the 10 year between in the u.s. and the 10 year in europe. year ago,und 90 a around 108 at the beginning of the year, and there was a limit to that divergence. >> i am glad you bring up europe and this gap between the two. we sought ecb yesterday with this surprise news, cutting the benchmark rate and buying out security. with someone who gave his skeptical take on what this latest move means. i want you to listen to this. >> it doesn't really matter whether it is a public asset like sovereign bonds. effectively what they decided to -- the target throws it -- target slows it to $3 billion. it will have a significant impact over time together with other policies, like fiscal policy and reforms. do you believe it would have a significant impact? havedon't believe it would a significant impact on the economy unless it encourages governments to do what they need to do. ,nd he made clear what that is fiscal responsibility and structural reforms. those are the key issues to get

the fed is more hawkish and we had, you know, some talk of guys like steve and also san francisco fedeport out overnight saying that the public is underestimating how hawkish the fed is. and, you know, fact of the matter is even a strong dollar could be good for the market and certain sectors like consumer and means there's an adjustment period which is why i was looking for this weakness happening right now. >> the fed tweaking is an important move and agree with steve on that. we didn't see the 10-year move. i don't think that's responsible for the decline, the little move to the downside we saw. i think this thing with scotland took people by surprise and i think, remember, scotland 25% of the uk right now very labor oriented. if they move out of uk, you have a lot more tori base in the uk and more hostile to the eu and a wild card nobody anticipating. >> michael, i appreciate what your' saying but are we overplaying the scottish aspect? a couple of polls. too close to call. >> it is but the point is treasuries are moving around. net-net they haven't moved. the excess volatility --

>> i think the fed is appropriately cautious here.he fed has to think about this from a risk management point of view. we don't have an inflation problem in the. inflation is a small moving problem. we're not going to get runaway inflation in the next several years. the fed looks at what happened in europe and what happened in japan where they did not get a full recovery and their economy and ended up in deflation or near deflation. that is a much more dangerous thing. llen correctly understand, get a solid recovery in place that you are confident about and then withdraw the stimulus. they are correctly balancing the risks here. the main risk is not getting a full recovery in the economy. there are other risks, including from abroad. the economy stalling out. isn't there a large chance that all of these things are going to start winning on you -- waiting on you? >> you have weak growth globally . europe is showing a bit of stumbling. the very low-wage readings out reasonse -- one of the why we are so low inflation as well. is notbal b

on slesn't. >> all eyes on the fed of course.d we are watching the yields on the ten year bouncing around but remember over the last month it is up sharply. anthony, what do you think the fed is going to say? how do you think it will impact rates. >> i think there are going a dovish fed because they are going to -- intensify the focus on the labor market which has been weak lately. so i see a very dovish fed. i see interest rates moving lower. >> interesting. do you think the chart shows the same trend? >> jackie, too far, too fast. almost 10% less than 30 days. come on. i think the market is priced for a hawkish fed. if they disappoint it's been buying the rumor. we are going to sell the fact tomorrow. looking for a close i outline below 2.55 and yields come off. too far too fast. >> views on both sides of it. we'll be watching closely. tune in at 1:00 because wither talking to bill flecken stein. he's going to tell us if now is the time to short. scott, back to you. >> thanks jackie. we'll see you in a bit. coming up in the moo

report is it shows it's not all fed wealth creation because oil is not a phenomenon of the fed.nd silicone valley was the number three in terms of growth. tech is not a function of the fed, either. so the top three seeds of growth had nothing to do with the fed. >> i think you should dig in more. come on. >> no, no, i'm finished pretending to -- no one would really believe -- don't millionaires pay more taxes? they're in the top bracket. doesn't it generate more for the government to blow on things that don't -- i mean, it does, right? it does generate more revenue. so it's a good thing. but -- no, no, my next question -- oh. the other thing -- >> i don't know where he's going now. >> it's ameritocracy, too. it's not money stuck in one place, where you're a futile system where you're a duke and it goes to his son and it goes to his son. most of these people were self-made, right? maybe they were born where they could get a good education, but they did it through hard work and through succeeding. >> yeah. over the last eight years, we've had more than 1.5 million people get into

>> the fed is being very cautious here. they did not change the considerable time, their commitment not to raise rates after concluding the asset purchases. they are getting ready to change their stance over time. over andlen was saying over again, this is all that data dependency. we have not changed anything. we are getting more ready to change our stance later on. >> we are not changing right now, but we are getting ready to change. what does this do to the job of people like you? >> it's a wonderful proof statement of the value of a liberal arts education. we are talking about monetary policy. we are parsing sentences and talking about word choices. i think this fed considers communication to be as potent a policy tool as interest rate policy. there is no change in the pace or the path of fed policy today. if anything, the fed is try to recalibrate market expectations a little bit. the 2017 dot chart helped -- >> explain that. and 2017.m 2017 seems like a long time away. >> the medium estimate for the feds funds rate 20

how high does the fed go and how fast?hat would it be if you could cut it below zero given the qe and everything else? rates not only deeply negative, but still going in that direction. the more aggressive the fed is doing that, the harder it it's the economy. caution fromued janet yellen and company. >> we will have live coverage of the fed's decision at 2 p.m. tomorrow. plus a news conference half an hour later with a chair janet yellen. stay with bloomberg for comprehensive coverage on wednesday. the export-import tank is the official credit agency of the united states. it supports a number of american companies that provide equipment and acknowledge you for energy production all over the world. the banks are in authorization is set to expire on september 30. ambassador ron kirk is cochair of the clean and safe energy coalition and the former u.s. trade representative. he joins me now in the studio. line." why domn you believe the export-import bank last charter should be reauthorized? >> a big part of our economic reco