then second element of cost is the fed recent ja minutes or the fed meeting was held. and both cases, it suggested that interest rates will in fact be lower for a longer period of time than what the market had once again, suggested that there's a difference betwe the fed is right now on interest , if you have inflation that is running below wh it would seem an odd time at all to raise interest rates at all. sources in one of our stories said that -- who thinks i agree with you, tyler.t rate when the fed emphasized the inflation expe and i think it told a lot of people that if the fed were to hike rates it would what we're looking at nowst is again this situation where fed is giving us new information, it's creating some confusion in the marketplace. but it certainly does delay any interest rate increase. >> let's just step aside from interest rates for a moment. how would you describe the health of the economy? we see the unemployment rate is coming down. sure there's this inflation issue but how would you describe how the economy doing right now? >> the domestic econo

but the fed is carefully watching these overseas moves. it even debated at its october meeting whether to say in its policy statement that foreign weakness raised the risks for the u.s. economy. but will it keep them from hiking? >> if things fall hard enough in europe as an example, then yes, i think it could actually attenuate the cycling in the united states. but we're talking about a backdrop that would have to have deteriorated in a material way. >> reporter: others have already changed their views. citi moved ahead its first forecast for the rate hike of december 2015 with from september. and a money manager said foreign weakness and central bank easing is going to make the fed wary about moving too quickly. >> i think the fed recognizes that the risk of tightening too soon and ending up back in the ditch is much harsher than waiting too long and having to fight perhaps growth or inflation down the line. i think they would rather err on the side of too much ease and then, you know, ratchet back than to tighten too soon and really run

and where the fed is. there is a big gap. this is one of the things where brian probably has a closet in his den that is full of stuff and doesn't have to worry about now but he is eventually going to have to worry about it when he has to look for something. this problem about the difference between the market and where the fed is on the outlook for rates is something they will have to deal with. every day that goes by the day of reckoning comes a little bit closer. they talked about it briefly when they said maybe we go to a consensus forecast rather than what is a random average. it is a little technical but ultimately the fed does not have the language yet to begin talking to the market about how it is going to raise rates and the speed of that increase. the only thing we have is that one paragraph at the end of the statement that says below norm. >> the other thing the fed did emphasize in the statement and i'm assuming also emphasized in the minutes now is that everything depends on what happens to th

of the fed. do they have a credibility gap here? >> not at all! i got to tell you something. >> jack! >> this is doing what they should be doing. if anything, she's come out and said exactly what she should have said. in the statement today, if you read it, she said something that was very, very important. >> it was minutes. >> what is taking -- what is going on around the world is not going to affect or might not affect what is happening here. do you know how big that is, rick? >> as big as -- >> she's making it up as she goes, jack. >> as big as chamberlain's tombstone. >> the market is going up to steal a line of larry kudlow, profits are the mother's milk. they're making money. >> corporations -- >> that's fine, jack. >> that doesn't -- >> sweeter, jack! >> no. but doesn't change the fact -- >> wait a minute. hang on, everybody. hang on one second. hang on. hang on one second. jack, let's start to you and then get peter in real quick here. listen. same question. we heard what rick had to say.

coming up, crunching the fed opossum numbers. 's the fed numbers. "bloomberg west" continues in just a moment. ♪ >> will come back. this is "bottom line." more now on the fed minutes. i'm joined by meg mcclellan. welcome back. it is good to see you again. how would you describe the overall tone of the october minutes? >> we are still just parsing through them. a lot of the questions we had coming in up to at been addressed. our primary questions were around inflation. the minutes are a big concern about inflation. lastabor markets -- the set of federal leases was much more hawkish around the labor markets and underutilization. this seems to reinforce that idea that labor markets are strong in the pet is confident in that. deal when youed have weakness in japan and additional weakness in europe? how does that filtered through to expectations in the u.s.? says things like lower oil prices will help the consumer. inflation still remains below the fed's threshold of 2%. is that a cause for concern? >> great question. there is a couple of issues here. to

, and that's not the fed. other areas. let's look at the fed's record. not only did they not regulate and supervise the banks to prevent the crash of 2008, they had specific information about rigging the market, they did nothing. they had specific information about jpmorgan's high risk trading in their london operation that led to the $7 billion london whale loss, and they did nothing. they had people in size saying we should supervise and regular goldman sachs. they fire the person, and now today, in the senate banking committee, they will ask questions of the new york fed, where goldman hired a new york fed official who apparently has confidential information from the new york fed that they then used for goldman clients. so you have a captured regulator who is now going to do a self review to determine whether they are captured. i am not optimistic. >> what are you not optimistic about? would you say this is a step in the right direction, that the was theseizes there incidents, and how they took their eye of

james, i empathize with the fed. it doesn't seem like they would raise rates once we see a pick up in wage inflation. >> there's a time of external headwinds. we don't know was going on in europe, what's going on in china. the fed is trying the forecast in a difficult economic environment. at the same time, even if it's forecasting abilities were perfe perfect, it has to manage market expectations. we've seen that the market is, to some extent, hooked on the fed's kool-aid. they have to prepare the ground cautiously. they have to clearly signal well in advance that changes are coming. and i think that to me is the key message from yesterday's set of minutes. there is a change coming. it's probably going to be a small change, but in the december meeting, we're probably going to see that key phrase, the considerable time phrase. everybody is focused on that and we move to a more data dependent level. i think yesterday was the warning that we should start to prepare for the first teptive step in tightening. >> and the o

calmed the fed whisper. joining ussure tradeers from the new york stock exchange, the cme and, of course, the nymex. jon, i want to begin with you, what is your takeaway from the minutes, and who in your opinion is the most important fed members to pay attention to as we move into the final trading month of the year? >> well, so my main takeaway is the fed has its eye on a bunch of problems right now that could derail its forecast. weak growth overseas, looks like inflation is slowing down. market volatility, but none of these concerns are serious enough at this point to change what they're planning to do. that is to move towards it raising short-term interest rates sometime next year towards the middle of next year. cheryl: okay, let's talk about the things they are most preoccupied with, the volatility in the markets, they talked a lot about that. there's a three week lag here, how much can we take away from commends about the market, not just the stock market but the labor market. they seem bullish but th

keeps the fed checked.t's why he thinks it's unlikely the fed will raise rates in 2015 and certainly won't happen in the first or second quarter. no wonder the yield is down 2.3%. meanwhile, the yield on two-year treasury is 2.5%. believe me, if fed were to raise rates, we wouldn't be sitting next to historical lows, which brings me back to the volatility index. perhaps it's because equity markets lack interest rates. take a look at this daily chart of the s&p 500 and the volatility index. the last time the stock market figured out janet yellen wasn't going to do anything any time soon was this past may when the bond market yields took a really nice tumble, okay, about a month later, the s&p was hitting new highs on a daily basis and the vix was trading down to ten. see, so that was the bond, figured it out rates weren't going to go up, vix goes down to here. sebastian thinks the same pattern could play out once fed watchers realize the yellow is not going to raise rates next year and certainly not in the f

there's the fed, under me today..tiny discretehave responsibilities, so some things fall through the cracks. itsthe cf tb has turned attention to the payment system. i spoke to the director here yesterday. i asked him why payments? >> we need a faster payment system, and that needs to be faster access to people's money so that the benefits flow through the consumer. it needs to be real-time account information as well. protection against rod, and it needs to be disclosed so that consumers can do -- >> so from your perspective, there is not enough of all of those? >> there is a lot of potential for consumer confusion. somewhat embarrassing that we are lagging behind the rest of the world in this area. at the same time, as you build a real-time payment system, there is a lot of competition for that. there is a lot of competition outside of the normal channels that is being developed including digital currencies and other elements. it is very important that consumer protection be very right and center in people's minds

actually the release of the fed minutes from the most recent fed meeting.ed meet something two-day meeting that begins december 16th and announcement what came about will be december 17th. >>> it was a busy day on fox business. here is look at some of today's highlights. we start with former home depot ceo bob nardelli who told maria bartiromo how the new health care law personally impacted him. >> i have to buy insurance for myself and my family and i have seen the rates go up 300% on my youngest two sons. >> wow. >> who live out here in california. one of the first carriers canceled. they wouldn't insure anybody in california. then blue cross-blue shield, 2:30% increases. then they canceled the plans. we had to go to boutique. on personal basis i felt impact of this plan. >> a lot of these lessons i really learned from working with steve jobs that, to look at a company like sony that did the walk mann and a wild success. did the television as a wild success. now they're struggling, when they come out with smartphones they have maybe 40 different skus on s

>> this came from somebody outside of the nfl, david, who went to the feds and feds only probed the lockerthe visiting teams because carrying prohibitive drugs across state borders would be much more severe penalty than intrastate. david: of course, carrying across state lines of the question, is the dea, first of all, unfortunately the track record for our war on drugs is not very good. do we really want them leading a new war in the nfl? >> they're really concerned, i've been doing some legwork and calling, making phone calls on this one. there is concern at the league level too you have injured players playing on painkillers and could be really severely injured and knocked out of their entire careers. so really interesting thing is why did the government do this on gameday when there is so much scrutiny? doesn't seem like a pretty smart move but there is serious concern t was a shocker though. they didn't expect this lawsuit filed by these players to basically lead to the drug raid by the government. david: it does seem to be a little bit of grandstanding here, j.c. you used to play bas

it does not change the focus for the fed. next. ♪ >> welcome back, let's get back to bring you the most important stories you need to know before the bell. olivia sterns and brendan greeley are joining me. number one is the u.s. economy. added 214,000 dollars last month son in the upland rate to 5.8% which is the lowest level since 2008. we are pretty much at pre-recession levels in jobs and yet if you talk to the average american, they can hardly feel that right now. >> one of the things we learned in the election that jobs are not as important as wages. the median wages have been going down and were already going down before the recession and plummeted after that. in 2000, it was at 55,000 and now it's a 51,000. people do not think about investments. they think cash and cash a monthly basis. >> in this labor report, we did not see anything significant rise in which growth. it was lower than what economists protected. >> it's just not enough. it was a very modest improvement on the long-term participation rate. below 60%, it

the next fed meeting isn't until late december. so we have this voice of information, although i think what we're going to be looking for is, obviously, holiday sales to be a point of bailing us out in terms of giving you some information. given the fact that we've had dramatic fall in oil prices which is supposed to be a tail wind to consumer spending. all eyes are point to go what retailers will be expecting here in the coming weeks relative to what kind of activity we might so he seem to hear in the weeks leading up to christmas. >> so, bill, the lower oil pries, will we see this christmas affected by that in terms of positively? >> we are definitely going to see a jolt in consumer spending. sometime end of this year, early next year. what we're worried with more is what is monetary policy going to do next year? >> more about that than oil prices in the consumer? >> oil prices, it will participate unless you continue to believe oil prices are going to go down below $70, $75. no one has that target in mind. the policymakers of th

>> obama and the fed focus on the year ahead. the president prepares to outline his big plan on immigration. >> china's challenge. manufacturing flatlining. >> and earnings. is the transformation >> obama and the fed focus on the year ahead. the fed it weighs its approach to money 15. -- 2015. >> hello. welcome to "countdown." i'm mark barton. i'm anna edwards. >> i'm manus cranny. >> caroline is here. it has been four years. proposinghey will be $.11 on the euro. 210 euros is the net income. there was a loss previously to that. 127%. that is a beat on analysts estimates. we're seeing the industrial solutions picking up in terms of growth. looks like the only real area of loss is the u.s. unit. it has been a thorn in their side. sell.ave managed to also outlining savings targets. had been 2.3 billion euros. they are upping it. lifts.ture of >> this companies history was all about getting steel out of the ground and back in the rural region. 20% of the revenue is what is dedicated to this area. they are ever supplying. thehas been

occupy the majority of the fed's mind.n that context it is quite sensible that the 15% was externally influenced and perhaps being slightly detrimentally affected. just a weakening in global growth. it isn't that much of a concern at the moment. of the backdrops is the decline in oil price. and saidhrough them that may offset the strength of the dollar on the currency side. how much of a boost is that? two things about oil, it will challenge them quite hard on their inflation target in the near term. we'll see the numbers out later today and cpr reacts quite ignition only -- significantly to some of the oil prices we has seen coming through and that pushes a profile lower into the end of the year and gives the fed more scope to keep rates lower for longer in our view. think that on a two or three inflation returns toward the target. they're quite comfortable to take the short-term falling inflation to help stimulate the u.s. economy. , you can gets real varying estimates of how much money the u.s. spends on gasoline but it

i like the saint lou fed. wall street reads the st. louis fed. watch what the st.ed is watching delinquency rates. the delinquency rates are trending down. they have been trending down for the last four years. the balances are cut by a fifth. delinquency rate on credit cards is lower than it was in 2005. when you have younger households deleveraging that is positive sign. liz: discover, mastercard and visa, these would benefit because they're to takers on credit card usages. what do you think? is this good thing, bad thing and am i missing an area of investment here? >> this is great for the credit card companies given the fact delinquency rates come down and remain very, very low. if that starts to rise, that could be a problem. consumers, obviously, 4% is not that big of a move. in general with rates being low, i don't see it being all that problematic as of now. when you look at stocks themselves, most are range-bound for most of the year. they had about 20% move to the upside just in last couple months. i'm not sure if it is a best risk/reward at current levels

what does this mean for the next fed move? 200,000 jobs, we have seen this now for nine months straight. -- should we be having a bull market partly? >> during expansionary periods over the last 20 years, 200 jobs per month is about what you do. we are doing better than that. the six month or 12 month average, 200 20-240,000 jobs per month which is good. the unemployment rate is 5.8%. the numbers are pretty good. when everyone ago was crying and ready to jump out a window and saying we are falling off a cliff, where did that come from and how are we back to the moment where the economy is great. >> i think you're going through a significant divergence, global growth versus u.s. magnet -- manufacturing in the u.s. has been trending about one percent the last few months and europe is doing the exact opposite. it has been slower or stabilizing. the global economy is still slow. japan is slow getting stimulus and europe is slow but the u.s. economy, a closed people are worried about exports falling up because of the strong dollar.

if i saw that the fed was putting them back within the fed, not reinvesting, that would be a differentame possibly. right now, no. liz: listen to what milton has to say. he's not. milton, you say bond buyers beware, but x a certain realm of bonds, correct? >> depends where you are in the market. the fed has told us they're going to raise rates. so i don't see very much prospect looking at over 6, 9 months, maybe the next few weeks there will be movement in this direction. the european central bank is going to keep rates low, pushing to keep rates low are in china. over the long haul, i'm talking six, nine months, the fed told us they're going to raise rates. the treasuries and high-grade paper, a crummy yield and prospect of capital loss. if you want to take credit risk, that's something else, munis, like taking credit risk, that's something else. areas where people think first about bonds look dangerous. liz: you disagree with ira. we'll leave it at that. we'll bring you back to fight it out. thanks to traders at the nyse and cme and nymex, the closing bell is ringing in 38 minutes. u

speaking of central bank policy, boston fed president eric does not say when he expects to fed to start hiking short-term rates. he warns sluggish wage gains and a stronger dollar could make it harder for inflation to hit the fed's 2% target which we were just pointing out. rosengren says weak inflation must remain very low which gives the fed little room to react if the economy runs into trouble. >>> we see a laterally in europe yesterday which means we posted small gains. at the moment, the stoxx 600 is up 0.4%. let's look at the individual markets. up 0.5%. the individual markets, you can across the board and nowhere is really tearing ahead. what's leading this? there's no specific europe-wide reasons for it today, but there are some interesting stocks that we'll get to later in the show like vodafone. as you can see, a bit of strength across the board, but nothing too significant. germany is up 0.4%. france, slightly ahead of the rest, up 0.25%. let's look at bonds. on the u.s. ten-year, 2.63%. september was range bound between 2.4% and 2.6%. we dipped below that in october with mor

without question, the modern fed's greatest critic. ,llan meltzer and david malpass the day the fed build the nation. it is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ >> good tuesday morning, i am tom keene with olivia sterns and stephanie ruhle. they will be off thursday, i will be working. top headlines. your headlines, violence or rubs in ferguson, missouri, protesters looted businesses, torched police cars. chaos broke out moments after the announcement that a grand jury would not indict the white police officer who shot an unarmed black teenager there last august. police used tear gas to try to break up the protest. several people were arrested. feel guilty about eating a big tub of popcorn at the movies? it will get worse. the fda's moving to new menu labeling for many theaters -- for movie theaters, restaurants, grocery stores. they will have to disclose how many calories are in snacks and meals in an effort to fight obesity. a film biography of apple cofounder steve jobs finds a new home. comcast has picked up the project less than a week after sony bailed on it. it is based on the best selling

head of the new york fed a senate appointment. don't miss it all straight ahead. it's more than the driver. it's more than the car. for lotus f1 team, the competitive edge is the cloud. powered by microsoft dynamics, azure, and office 365, the team can gain real time insights and instantly share information around the globe. when every millisecond counts, staying competitive begins with the cloud. this is the microsoft cloud. >>> seeing more truth in the market. this is an expiration day. futures and options off the board on the close today and might get volatility and volume. dow up 96 points right now. both in record territory and the nasdaq is up 15 points. >> yeah, the dow starting to flirt with 18,000 mark. is this a sign that the economy is booming? before the break, we asked what you thought on this. polls are open right now. cnbc.com/vote. let us know if you think the economy is, in fact, booming. >> while you're multitasking there, let's talk about this with steve englander and says there's a decent chance that the econom

we do run the fed's model which is now available from the fed staff.nto the public domain. we run other models. we try, even when we take the entire message from all these models, even it with hopefully good judgment, but some judgment. >> crude oil, danger to the market? >> net benefit. it might be a slightly smaller net benefit than it would have been ten years ago because of the increase in domestic u.s. oil production. the benefit the consumer sees in declining oil prices. on net, it's a positive important the growth side. >> $2.96 was the average price at the pump. >> do we hang around in the $70s? >> in the $70 to $80 range depending on what grade. >> good to see you. >> thanks. >> some reports swirling right now around russia and ukraine of a massive invasion that have commodity markets on the move. has the kremlin reacted? >> no specific kremlin reaction to this report. moscow has of course denied previous reports of a large russian buildup along the border with ukraine. always denies any russian involvement militarily in ukraine. keep in mind,

the fed is making the assessment that the u.s. economy is able to stand up on its own two feet by itself. that's an appropriate assessment. they'll contemplate when they start normalizing rates from the very low zeros. that does not mean they're not helpful. they still are because zero interest rates are very helpful. >> that gets us to the question when do interest rates actually rise. are you looking at the second quarter of next year? the third quarter? >> you know when the data permit, i do listen to janet. i think that's probably the second quarter of next year. i think we have to watch wage rates. i think we'll start to see as unemployment rate has fallen below 6% the beginning of some moderate wage increases. when i talk to ceos they're short labor. skilled labor in particular. >> that's good. we wanted more inflation and more strength in the consumers hand. >> agreed. if we get some of that that's a missing ingredient for the fed to say okay time to raise rates. >> we have been watching a lot of differ things. a lot of num

market but the fed can't determine the quality of jobs that get created.t has more to do with congress and the white house do with the range of policies on things like tax reform, immigration policy, fixing our infrastructure, trade liber liberalization with the rest of the world and will shape going forward the kinds of jobs our companies in america creating and hopefully having high and rising wages. those are the policy things we need to focus on more now. >> and to flip it, you can, back to the market, as well, dennis, as you know, the gains are often made all the way up until the point at which the full recovery is kind of upon us. so perhaps this report further evidence that there's still time to get in and involve. uchb right on the dollar and talking about oil and to be clear to everybody out there, would you recommend that for now coming to the u.s. stock market that they get involved? >> they should be involved. should they get dramatically involved? if you haven't been involved probably getting dramatically involved at this point might not be th

you have the fed trying to tighten. cboe is not far behind the fed.stuck in the middle. , phil is thece biggest loser? they are playing against each other, almost. >> there is a sort of beggar thy aspect. one of the ways quantitative easing works is through the foreign exchange markets. have been a number of policy maker meetings over the last few years where the japanese have really stepped of the line and have been explicit about the fact that they want to see a weaker yen. they have said it is purely domestic, which is not the case. yen is ones of the of the main levers the bank of japan has to produce the japanese economy. we've seen mario draghi moving very much in the same direction. you can imagine german exports, thinking hang on, the yen-dollar is heading towards 1.20. as well.moving they are not happy about that. it currency market is one of the connecting factors between the divergent monetary policies. >> we will talk more about that next. staying with us for the whole hour. pay out. taxing time for the u.k. the battle over a 2.1 billion e

>> let's get back to fed monetary policy.re on record saying you would like it sooner than later. forecast would call for it in the spring. are you more concerned about the possibility of letting it go too long as zero or raising rates and then having to go back the other way if the economy falters? thee do not want to do latter because that would undermine confidence and there are arguments for waiting, so we see things exactly where they are, the whites of the eyes, so to speak. i used on cutting -- duck hunting. if you want to a-game allard, you do not shoot worthy duck is presently. we can shoot for our inflation target right on spot. history has proven that every time the fed has done that, it has been had to tighten and drives us into a recession, so monetary policy operates at a lag. at a zero interest rate bound, and we are not sure what the lag is. therefore i want to anticipate. it is a difference of opinion. i view the economy's progression a little bit faster than others at the table. you said at the table and arg

is the feds pay for our bill. in kennedy figured out a way to rip off the feds about $400 million a year. >> this the latest in a string of videos surfacing when they wrote about how to handle the stupidity of gruber. the lack of transparency about the law. the president disagrees. that brings us to look who is talking and democratic leaders are reacting. nancy pelosi saying she is never even heard of gruber. >> i don't know who he is. he didn't help write our bill. the person who wasn't writing our bill commenting on what was going on when we were writing the bill. they have withdrawn soem of tme statements that you made. let's put him aside. >> she sited him on her web site back in 2010. even mentioned him by name during a press conference back in 2009. >> i don't know if you heard of mayan mal sis like the comparison to the status quo and comparison level to our bill and seeking insurance to the exchange and our bill takes down the costs. >> she doesn't know who he is not that she is never heard of him rather w

particularly the philae fed which is an astounding number to all of us. as long as that trend continues and we stay up at this level, it would be surprising for me to see a blow off rally. >> let me interrupt you. russell up three-quarters of a percent. you've been a big believer in small caps even though they've lagged over the past eight months. >> sure. look at year to date. s&p over 10 percent. russell 2000 barely break even. >> why do you like it then? >> we love things cheap and at a favor. if you look at the s&p 500, you've got the popular sectors. telecom. things like that. i want to get out of them. and buy the things not very popular like energy and things like that. >> sandy is doing what i often felt is the best thing. it's the buffet thing with a twist. don't stay in where everyone is diving in, but you don't want to miss another upside move. >> that's exactly right. if you can buy these things now and have a three to five-year horizon you can make good money holding your nose. >> speaking of energy, that's right up your alley. i'm more inter

the fed is making an assessment that the u.s. economy is able to stand up on its own two feet by itself. and i think that's an appropriate assessment. they will contemplate during this long period in between when they start normalizing rates from a low zero. just because they are not doing qe does not mean they are not helpful. they are still because zero interest rates are there. >> that brings us to the next question as to when do interest rates actually rise? the second quarter of next year or the third quarter? >> when the data permit, i do listen to janet. i think that's probably the second quarter of next year. i think we have to watch wagerings. i think we'll start to see as the unemployment rate falls below 6%, the beginning of some moderate rage increases. when i talk to ceo, there's short labor, skilled labor, in particular. >> that's good. we have been wanting a little more inflation and wanted more strength in the consumer's hands. >> agreed. if we get some of that, that's kind of the misingredient for the fed to say,

if you look at where market expectations are for the fed, they're way below what the fed's own expectationsarding its own policy. i don't think the market is pricing in a whole lot of action from the fed in 2015. maybe a little move later in the year. by and large, the fed not going to be a major issue for markets in the u.s. in 2015. the european central bank will be doing a lot more. the bank of japan will. in the u.s., i think fed policy won't be the biggest driver of stocks. >> bill, what would you be talking to investors about in relation to the election? there's energy, health care, the possibility of comprehensive tax reform. i guess a lot depends on what obama says this afternoon, on whether he's going to stand there vetoing or whether there's compromise to be had. >> yeah, i think you're right to say the baseline is probably not a ton of change. you can see on the energy front, maybe more prodevelopment. probably a higher chance that we get the oil exports approved. maybe a higher chance of some comprehensive tax reform. honestly, that's still a hard thing to do no matter what's go

the fed is going to watch. it will be okay to be the first central bank to raise rates. it doesn't want to get too far ahead. as we know from several leading central bank officials they believe the worst mistake they could make is being too early. this could stay their hand if it doesn't spark growth overseas. >> they are worried about being too early. it almost feels as if there was a tone of urgency and desperation. he was criticized for so long for inaction. now it feels like he is too late. >> there is also a comment i'm getting that draghi is going to have to deliver. he has been talking about this next step for a long time and has excused because of the abs program. he is going to have to come up with qe heavy. >> i said that talk is cheap when it comes to draghi. don't tell me watt you are going to do, just do it. >> that is a political game he plays over there. we wait to see whether or not he can manage. >> the game of talk is in its ninth inning. let's see some action. >> he has played it pretty well. that's the amazing part. >> i'm not saying he is losing the

without that, the fed is not able to do its job.ve to remember -- >> ira green with you on that -- i agree with you on that. >> either you need to fix it, or we will get someone who will. >> it was not just elizabeth warren, leaving the hearing i asked if she wanted him to step down and she did not answer that question. thee pushed back against .uestions of a hearing >> these are usually more amicable affairs, bill dudley gave us much as a god here. was sonusual that there much contention, but you have a lot of regulatory powers after dodd-frank. verylicans are looking fo awayat some of the powers from the fed. and then there's the institutional pride. there are a lot of people at the fed who believe they are doing a good job and want credit for it. >> thank you. still ahead, we will look at what the travel association calls u.s. martyrs. - work martyrs. ♪ >> it is time for the latin america report. they extended their weekly rally to the highest point since march. %,ey strengthened 1.3 the biggest increase after russia's ruble. at

what actually happens to the fed market -- to the market when the fed moves. doing in the markets? it's wanting to strategize about it, another thing to do. what do you do? >> remodel 40 asset classes and we invest in -- >> i have no idea what she just said. >> oh, i'm so relieved. >> near diversified across the globe. oh, come on. we are diversified across the globe. >> i get it. liz ann sonders is going to brazil. >> not yet. but we are in india. we have a position in india, it's one of our favorite emerging markets. ofwhy india i'm not a zodiac -- and not brazil? has a spectrum of commodities. that is key. politics have been coming into play and will continue to come into play more than probably anything i've seen in my career. i think politics particularly comes into play when you have a reform agenda. in the case of india, it's both on the monetary side and on the fiscal side, which i think is a positive. >> health care has been the leader. what is the lead in next year's volatile environment? >> i think investment will be more investment driven, capex dr

november philly fed, 40.8.'s only one number i see in my data base goes back to '90 that is a bigger number. that was from december 1993 at 41.2. this is a whopper on any level. let's look through the internals. employment 22.4. jumping basically 10 points from its last read. new orders an important area. 35.7 versus 17.3. i know our economy's improving, but i think the water in philadelphia has something special we should pass out through the rest of the country. back to you. >> i'll be first in line. thank you. >> let's bring in steve liesman. this is a huge number. >> what rick said about the water in philly, i think he's right. this is a strong number. i wouldn't extrapolate this kind of strength in the overall economy from these numbers. i was looking at the employment indicator in this. it almost doubled from 12 to 22. the new order tells us things will be good in the future. all those are capital expenditures. 23 versus 18. all indicators here positive. i would not extrapolate broad strength but the word

we have the fed in play talking about removing tapering. they are removing any form of easing going forward. it is already priced in market. also we had draghi yesterday, obviously the bank of japan the week before. this is going to affect the currency. is it going to affect interest rates and evaluations of the currency markets? without a doubt. >> quite a performance by draghi yesterday. the market giving him a great start. how important is that for you as you look at the markets here in europe? >> hugely important. i think he managed a lot of the questions very well and i think going forward, what we'll see here is a continued weakness of the euro. especially against the dollar. we have changed our predictions of the euro down to about 118. we can see that happening within the next couple of months and given the momentum of the currency markets, we can see that going well through that. in 2015, you can see the euro dollar trade significantly below 118 down to probably about 110 if not lower. >> if we can head to 110, euro dollar. towards

i think that brings the money as well. >> enough said there. -- cymer 17 fed meeting december 17 fed. that was the taper meeting of the year ago december >> was it? >> we have photos as well today. brendan greeley, these are smart photos. >> thank you. number three photo, memorial ceremony is held in amsterdam for the 290 people who died when mh17 was shot down in july over eastern ukraine. 1600 people at the sermon including the prime minister of the netherlands. 298 candles were burning memory of the victims. two thirds of them were dutch. the next photo, that that does not contain what you think it contains. it is oregano. 25 grams of it. william the hands of bratton. commissioner bill de blasio announced new york city's start giving out tickets instead of arresting people. it is just a traffic fine. >> tom is celebrating. doobie brothers. >> i can only imagine it is a doobie brothers song? >> "china grove." >> $100 ticket for the first time, $200 for the second. if there's something other than oregano in the bag. baskin robbins celebrates veterans day today with camouflage ice cr

the white line is the fed.e lines do not measure is the value of each balance sheet. .he white line is the fed japan is in red. europe is in blue. >> the blueline rolls over. >> they are pretty much a 3.3%. the green line is china, brazil, india combined. they make up a most 8.5% of global gdp, more than the u.s.. and the u.s. has been arguably the most aggressive central bank. king was way out in front of this on level matters. there is something about the blunt interest, the blunt reality of level, isn't there? >> i think the biggest take away is that china is becoming much less responsive to basic liquidity and credit stimulus. over the last three years, for every one dollar and china, they have been able to grow less than basically $.30 per new gdp. that is telling you the productivity growth is coming off in china. a lot of investment is going to wasteful investment, a lot of it is maybe going to manhattan real estate [laughter] . --do you believe what are it larry summers says about china reverting to the

an off the charts philly fed number. better than expected home sales. you got to feel good today if you are long this stock market. right steph? >> there is a lot to cheer about. but i would say while the philly fed was very good, it is a regional series. so let's not extrapolate it and get totally crazy. >> from 20 to 40. >> when it is negative or bad i say the same thing. regional indicator. very good in terms of new orders, employment. now ism new orders and the philly fed new orders being very good. so that is great activity. future indications of activity. so it is encouragings. also is retail sales. the companies are coming in better than expected. in addition we've got lower oil price, so yeah a lot of good to cheer about and it sets us up into the end of the year. >> you put this with your jobs readout yesterday. you must be feeling good about where the economy is today. >> i feel good no matter where the economy is scott but i feel a little better when it is like this. two conclusions i get. one is the economy looks to be accelerating. would no

liz: but the fed has been the driver behind a very strong stock market.an you imagine, seriously, can you imagine what the market would start to do if it perceived. a huge hurt moving, treesuries, if it perceived that the fed might pop off at the knee. >> politicians might be dictating federal reserve policy, that's the pushback by janet yellen. liz: careful what you wish for. >> this legislation would be a grave mistake. liz: tea party candidates who perhaps a government shutdown during the debt ceiling hike. that was terrible for the markets, correct? you got to be careful there. peter barnes. we are watching again, very close race here with 30 minutes to go before the closing bell rings. we've got the dow moving higher but red on the screen as the first polls begin to close at 6:00 p.m. eastern, this critical midterm election vote omes just as the major stock averages are hovering some of them near record highs. i want to get to nicole. we're on track for one record close that involves big, big manufacturing, correct? >> indeed, you must be talking abo

>> i don't think the fed will move. liz: we'll get fed minutes tomorrow. that will shed some light. tracy, fed governor powell had a quote, if we stay on the current path work make sense to do it in 2015, perhaps the middle of it. go to fed president bullard who has been dovish. he still thinks the best time to raise is still 2015. in fact at the end of the first quarter. will we see this now that japan in past 24, 4hours gone back in recession? >> here is with japan they keep blowing taxes out of the water. washington should take a lesson pro tax front in japan. rates, up inch them up, that gets housing market going. hey, if rates go up i have to pie soon it will get banks to loan again. right now i have no incentive as a bank to loan you money if i'm not making any. liz: i am with you, tracy. it won't kill us to tighten a little bit. agree or disagree with the panel join us in the conversation. will japan as recession slow us down in our economy. >> text us @fbnatb. we'll read some of your answers. moving on. mortgage rates at 4.61%, teeny. so low is it

the fed is pulling out a bit. would you say stay in equities, there's a screaming buy signal and it's the central bank. >> i think you are exactly right, liz. david hit it on the head when he said u.s. stocks are responding because they're seen as the best place. we continue to believe what's happening around the world today is positive for u.s. equities in particular, and think today is a catalyst and continue to like u.s. equities in the near future. david: garreth, i love brian, you can't have it both ways. either you believe in what the fed is doing by pulling back or believe in what the european and chinese and japanese central banks are doing by putting in. by printing more money, by doing what bernanke did, not what janet yellen is doing? which is it, garth? >> today's market action is positive. overall, the important thing for us next year will be what the u.s. markets do with the effect of stimulus overall. higher rates are on the way, everyone knows that. the ecb has been behind the curve for three, four

she went to jail. >> the feds can lie and the people can't?eme court has ruled that inexplicably but it has. >> thank you, judge. >> you're welcome. >> so weird. >>> the feds calling for a nationwide recall of millions upon millions of air bags with the potentially deadly defect. this is serious and could affect millions of drivers. fox business network's gerri willis has the info you need to know. looking for the fox business network it is easy, fox business.com/channel finder. >> headlines. police say they believe they found the bodies of a missing beauty queen and her sister. they disappeared last week in honduras. police say the sister's boyfriend confessed to shooting her because she danced with another man. then he apparently shot miss honduras 2014 as she tried to run away. cops say he and another man buried the bodies in a river bank. >>> scientists in europe say the spacecraft that landed on a comet might get another chance to catch some rays. the craft bounce landed last week and ended up in a shadow where its solar power batteries c