is the fed behind the curve? >> the fed doesn't want to do any harm, what is telling you? >> will the fed, to the panel move t high, too soon and there by possibly increase the risk of tipping the economy into a recession. we don't seeny of that right now. growth is good global growth is good. trade tensions are building and tariffs are coming from every angle and emerging markets are slowing. >> we don't know what the tariff situation is going to be >> what takes chairman powell off center here, we all established there's been a death in the phillips curve. this is good to tyler's point is this as good as things get? we're looking at historically low unemployment growth may be slowing, but the united states is full steam ahead, what changes his policy plan what's the biggest thing they're looking at they cannot explain lack of inflation. >> the markets are a forward looking instrument what do you do if you think right now is as good as it gets. >> i think you have to go sector by sector, stock by stock, and find out the best long term opportunities that aren't going to bl

fed. this is the fed fund future spread. there's one prominent list that suggests the aouncement that it was already baked in. investors are off to the races to readjust. this is the spread between july 2018 and october 2018 on features. this is toward 2019 january. you can see everyone is adjusting to this reality. kathleen hays will be here for more on that. let's go to the active stocks we mentioned. time warner, at&t, merger, you typically see the stock down and that continues to behe case. off a h opening floodgates for merger frenzy. get fox up in a big way as comcast comes in with a $65 billion offer in a showdown with disney. netflix set a new record. there's a big evaluation by goldman sachs that will overtake the market value of many other companies that already took over disney earlier ts month. date to seeting to the follow-through in the thursday session. haidi: sue, let's take a look at su, let's take a look at volatility for bitcoin, four days, 20% decline. su: a pretty shar

tell us about whats iving the fed. leen: jay powell says confidence is rising, hans economy is doing well. they raised the key rate. that was not a surprise. four more hikes are likely, because one person changed their mind -- i would love to know who that is. what markets are responding is to is that the fed is moving in that direction. here is how jay powell put it at the beginning of the p conference. >> the name takeaway is that the economy is doing very well. most people who want to find jobs are finding them, and unemployment and inflation are low. interest rates have been will for some years while the economy is recovering from the financial crisis. kathleen: let's look at the numbers in terms of how the forecast changed. a little bit stronger, but unemployment down to 3.5% by the end of 2018. already one of the lowest rates we have seen in 40 years. core pce rising to 2.1% in 2019. some confidence that, yes, it is gradually rising. jay powell says inflation has gotten to target faster than they thought. looking

let's talk about the fed. here is what the market is pricing in, divided between three and four hikes this year. we saw an uptick in inflation reigniting speculation there could be a total of four hikes in 2018 and a total of five by the end of 2019. markets are certainly watchingstorynd the one you mentioned at the top of e program. the big deal getting approval, at&t getting the thumbs from a federal judge to acquire time warner and that $85 billion deal. we have se a wholeost of deals already so far in 2018 heading into this announcement. wead already seen in the first quarter, as we track this through, the highest level of global m&a activity based on the value of the deals since 2007. basically the biggest run in deal activity so far in this bull market. we have seen energy deals, health care deals, global deals coming out of china appears certainly now there is an expectation we will see a lot more media deals ahi with at&t. continue the conversation and what effect it will have on m&a and more broadly.

is it the fed, the chinese data, the mix.uch in still a number of questions around the balance sheet and the neutral rate. w' leaed lot mor the communication policy from the powell fed. we have the u.s. 10 year yield at 2.95%. we are now back below 3%. one blog talking about how this is no longer a fed that is scared of it some shadow, different communication strategy perhaps or pace of action. the euro against the dollar, in honor of you being in latvia, and we wait for details of that timetable from the ecb. we did see a bit of a selloff as a result of the fed's hawkish move but some of that was toward the end of the session. a quick word on what's coming up during programming, later we will speak to the rbs chairman, howard davies, at 10:30 a.m. u.k. time. word news the first update with juliette saly in singapore. fed chairman jerome powell has snad growing optimism in the u.s. economy. he tried to reinsurer investors the ecb will not aggressively tighten monetary policy. officials raised interest rates by .25 points for

time for the fed decision with bill gross and the former fed vice chairman.im jong-un has said president trump offered to lift sanctions on his regime when they met in the singapore. this contrast the rhetoric that the sanctions would remain. president trump says he is certain kim jong-un is on board with denuclearization. >> we have developed a good relationship in terms of getting something done. it is a terrific document. we negotiated after that document are y important. we are going to get rid of certain ballistic missiles. uliette: the u.s. special unsel has warned that russian intelligence services still has evidenceoks into rega2016 eleions. russia continues to engage in similar activities. angela merkel is turning the tables on president trump, saying the u.s. is running a trade surplus with europe. exports werean discussed at last week's summit, when the president threatened new tariffs on auto port which would hit german carmakers the haest. the trade surpluses today are calculated in an old-fashionedw. if you incde services in the trade balance, t

the fed raised rates. why did the fed raise raids? they're confident the economy has momentum. tracking 4% during this quarter. we'r averaging almost 200,000 jobs created net. we have a room to run. adam: susan, do you think there is more room to run or fed could wind up with pien its own face? >> i was talking to traders before this decision, they were looking for hawkish statement. they're look for banks and financial to get more into the rally to broaden out the gains we've seen. it is interesting to me as we push closer to 2800 on the s&p there is resistance. is there belief interestate increase or we left the door open. adam: gary. >> one thing to add, every asset price, every data point in the economy here and around the globe has been based off of 10 years of easy money, both here and around the globe. on top of that gargantuan amount of printing of money. when that changes, if it continues to change, the question is, whatappens to asset prices. will they react in a negative way? i also have to tell i think a lot of the economy has been based off the wealth effect off of

unless the fed don't go. i strongly believe the fed will go it's upside.y has been as high as >> moynin. >> love you larry, speedy recovery get back to us quickly pallo networks the ceo and vice chairman go on "mad money" with jim cramer one week ago next morning the stock bottomsed at 195 concerns about the new ceo no ceo transparency is important. i bought the stock yesterday insider buying you love te that from the c suit swooed. >> very big "power lunch" with a fed decision begins right now. >>> the countdown is on. the federal reserve getting ready to announce its latest decision on into rates drops in just an hour. we are expecting a quarter point hike but it is the language that e investors will be focused on. >> we are live in the nation's capitol waiting for the big decision at 2:00 p.m the fed chair will give a news conference shortly after that,

bob: we think the fed is moving.s my colleague on the clip earlier said, we think it will move three to four times this year total. june and then september and probably december. we do not think they are going much above 2.5. the market is priced for a 2.5% terminal rate. the gap in the dots. the market is a probability weighted pricing mechanism, so it includes probability of higher rates and lower rates. the long-term neutral rate in this country is under debate. there is a fiscal policy impulse that is kicking in likely to impact growth and inflation for the next several quarters. in the overall medium term, we just don't think rates are going as high. jonathan: do you agree? robert: i see them going higher. they are going to have the scope to continue. i agree that once they get to a day they perceived to be as neutral, the onus of proof will rise. you are in a world where here in the u.s. people are thinking, 2% or 3%, these are not high interest rates, but around the world, rates are low. after being as high as

we begin with a big issue, emerging markets asking the fed for help. >> the fed is always clear theyre making policy for america. even if you do consider the rest of the world, you are not making policy to bail out countries that are running their countries badly. >> the fed is guided mostly by u.s. factors and it would take a massive global crisis to change the fed behavior. >> when people make the comparison to 2013 and say the yen is in a better place, but we are missing the point there say the e.m. is better place, but we are missing the point there other vulnerabilities, not just external anything but in places like brazil, public debt is a huge issue. >> the emerging markets appears to be contained to argentina and perhaps turkey. this is happening in a period of strong growth globally. if it is going to happen, it is a good time to happen. it's when institutions can best respond. >> this is an asset class where crossover money overwhelms the dedicated money. when crossover money decides to exit, which is what is happening these days, then most countries are impacted. >> i hear

the fed is guided mostly by u.s. factors and it would take a massive global crisis to change the behavior. people make the comparison to 2013 and say the e.m. is better and is better than the 1990's, but we are missing the point that there are other factors. there are also places like brazil. >> the emerging markets appears to be contained to argentina and perhaps turkey. ofs is happening in a period strong growth globally. if it is going to happen, it is a good time to happen. >> this is where crossover money overwhelms the dedicated money very when crossover money decides to exit, which is what is happening these days, then most countries are impacted. talk about the crisis in emerging markets and it is nonsense. it depends on what the dollar is doing, but there are some that are weak. they should be avoided. that, we have a full house. joining me is andrew chorlton, berry, head and jay of u.s. security at j.p. morgan. it is great to have you. this is a broader asset class story. not a single idiosyncratic like we

confere following every fed meeting. that's going to start in january of next year, 2019, and then interest if youk at the statement, it really signaled that they are no longer worried about the economy, he's positive about the economy, now what they are worried about seems to be inflation. that's the main concern now. also, towards the end he made i thought a very interesting comment, quote, trade changes would be disruptive, yes, that is the conversation we have been ha fox business, i there going to be a trade war between the united states and frankly europe and canada and mÉxico and, of course, china, hello, everybody, i'm cheryl casone. i'm in for liz claman, thank for joining us on countdown as we cover the market-moving event. of course, markets did move on all of this news immediately falling to the lows of the session. session on dow was down 77. the high was 41. now we are down 19. s&p is down 1. here we go. we are fight to go get back in positive territory. we shall see, we have more than half an hour to go. s

dated ease concerns when it comes to the fed? the fed will raise rates. the little turkish, argentinian tantrums calming down, there's nothing to stop them saying that they will raise rates, that the data is showing that inflation is going back up. so three is for 2018 four will be on the table. the table?lose to over here, or right in front of them? i think that is a big part of why asian markets today look very frozen to me. nobody really wants to go anywhere up or down at moment. the has combeen forgottehe markets. so to, meandering speak, especially what we saw here in the united states, slating to asia. in the meantime, bond markets are looking for the interest on excess reserves. what are we watching for? garfield: we are watching to see whether it will be a 20 or 25 basis point increase in the rate. that is again all part of the balance sheet adjustment, and what goes on with that, also affects how everything else prices throughout. a have had a little bit of drop off in rate slowing down the curve, but it is because it was only 20 as opposed to 25

the fed took over in february. >>chair, i hope to foster a onversation about what the fed is doing to support a strong and resilient economy and when practical steps in doing is to have a press conference like this after every one schedule meetings. we're going to do that beginning in january. that will give us more opportunities to explain our actions and to answer your questions. >> taking a s wait and approach on how much fiscal poli boosts the ecomy. said it would provide significant demand but uncertain if it would change supply of labor or investment. that could boost productivity and the economy over the long-term. business leaders indicated the fed officials concern about trade policy and some suggest it could be holding back investments. showing us to be a chairman and answer our bquestions, to do so in fewer words than his predecessors. and one sign of that, the fed's policy statement now down to just a single page for the fst time in quite a while. for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman in wash

the fed is moving.my colleague on the clip earlier said, we think it will move three to four times this year total. so, june and then september, and probably december. but we don't think there are going much above, at least for the time being, much above 2.5%. the market is priced for a 2.5% terminal rate. 2.60, something like that. the gap in the dots. the market is a probability -weighted pricing mechanism, so it includes probability of higher rates and lower rates. the long-term neutral rate in this country is under debate. there is a fiscal policy impulse that is just now kicking in and it is likely to impact growth and inflation for the next several quarters. but in the overall medium-term, with the demographic trends and of the technological innovation impacting inflation, we don't think rates are going as high as the clock suggests. jonathan: do you agree? robert: i see them going higher. they are going to have the scope to continue. the economy is good, and they will continue. by agree that once

the focus may change as the fed fund rates go higher. people realize those expectations are inverting. jonathan: let's continue the conversation. coming up, the auction block. italy bringing some relief to the markets following this week's meltdown in the nation's bonds. elsewhere, live pictures of the white house where president trump is expected to meet with north korea's kim yong chol. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: this is "bloomberg real yield." i want to go to the auction block were italian bonds have gotten a little bit of relief through the week. the company selling 3.6 billion euros worth of five and 10-year debt. substantially higher than at last month's auction. and there is this in politics showed up in europe, were in poland davis cup there only regular bond auction, leaving its calendar blank for the first time this year. in european corporate's -- >> we have breaking news right now he would we are looking at the north korean vice chairman of the central committee kim yong chol arriving at the white house. he i

next topic withne the fed.nflation expectations and where the fed is positioned, peggy, how will the markets be prepped for that? >> i think the fed moves are priced in for a hike after tomorrow's meeting. seell question whether we four rather than three rate hikes this year. i think investors are ready to look ahead. this will move rates for consumers on loans, student loans, housing loans, car loans. bond funds take a dive so far this year in terms of consumers panicking as rates rise, but we will see whether that changes as rates increase. alix: mike, the talk one to four rate hikes this year? >> the markets could read it that way. we get new economic projections from them and they raised inflation expectations. you can also see a market move. doesn't look like lower unemployment will have a lot of effect. another thing to watch is for guidance. they have been saying the level of interest rates will be below the median target and accommodation will continue for some time. if they drop that, that could be sig

time for the fed decision.leader has saidth o ft sanctions against his regime when then a in singapore. the claim contrast with the u. pre's rhetoric that the structures will remain. that comes as trump repeated his belief that he can deal with north korea, saying he is certain that kim jong-un is a board. >> we have developed a good relationship in terms of getting something done. i think it is a terrific document. there are things that we have negotiated after that document that are also very important. we are going to get rid of certain ballistic missile sites and various other things. japan's biggest power utility says it is ready to work with rivals to reduce the nation's 47 tons of stockpile plutonium. the u.s. state department has asked japan to cut its inventory ofar fuel. heays it ia catch-22 situation with no nuclear plants er japan >> [inaudible] it to be used as soon as possible. we do not have any power plants with that here. juliet: global news 20 for hours a day on air and twitter, powered by mor

and the fed is not even net negative liquidity mode yet.here is too much focus over how many more hikes the fed will do this year, what will happen with the flatness of the yield curve. the most important thing happening in the bond market, rates, is the reduction of the fed's balance sheet. certainly, the supply-demand imbalance of that is creating, along with other demand provider stepping away, such as sovereign buyers, russia -- not one of the largest but there was a story this week that they reduced their treasury holdings by $50 billion. banks are becoming less regulated which means they will provide less support for that part of the market. that 10-year in point of the curve will continue to struggle and move higher, not in a straight line, but it's hard to imagine a scenario in which the 10-year goes back to the high 1's. jonathan: basically, quantitative tightening from quantitative easing for several years. you have the fed, boj, and european central bank, and you get to the back half of this year were things get interesting. what

i would think google and apple would want accounts for the fed -- with the fed.t. the political dynamics at this moment are difficult, but it could open up over time. joe: they will put up a fight. are a transaction costs critical issue. >> that's right. ,ulia: thanks so much morgan law professor at vanderbilt. scarlet: breaking news from at&t . the u.s. government and at&t agreed to end the waiting. to close the deal on time warner. at&t will manage time -- turner networks as a separate unit. at&t and the u.s. filed a motion to modify the u.s. court order on closing terms. all systems indicate they will go ahead with the deal. at&t has given the go-ahead -- has been given the go-ahead by the judge to purchase time warner because the judge ruled against the department of justice, saying it didn't harm competition. if you look at the after-hours trade, are there any moves? julia: very little. scarlet: up 1% from the close. coming up, don't miss this. the bank of japan announces its june monetary policy decision with a news conference. a busy week for banks around

starts to accelerate, that's going to concern the fed.ey look at the pce and they said over and over that they want symmetry. what symmetry means is that they will tolerate and inflation rate above their target for a period of time. ramy: i'm curious about how long they can tolerate that. people say they can overshoot, but for how long? constants: if her overshooting on inflation, they're going to be able to overshoot longer. if are not seeing the pace picked up, the year-over-year rate that is higher, they are not going to worry. also seeing the near-term pace pick up and that will be more of a concern. you cannot just look at the inflation rate in isolation. report on adding more press conferences, how much of a game changer is it if from now on every meeting is live? >> in the sense that having a press conference, the ecb has press conferences every meeting, it is not changed the ecb. at the concern the fed months are to have should they need to go more frequently is that the market would become surprised that they were going to move a

back to the fed.ve liesman joins us now from cnbc headquarters with the reaction to yesterday's fed meeting. saw you in that light-colored suit summer, good day for it. >> is it safe to say this basically the fed is the last to know they go to 2.7 yesterday, they finally -- are they always the last to know they don't want to be, in terms of their statements, i guess, they don't want to be ahead? they don't like forecasts. they like things to be almost in granite before they acknowledge it do i have that wrong was that a led line that we might be at 2.7 or 2.6 >> 2.8 is their number >> you're faster than they are >> we have the rapid update. you ask good questions as always i think the fed has a view of the world that gdp numbers will not change much relative to their outlook. they see this fiscal stimulus coming down, they waited on that, then upped their forecast when they saw the simplus picture, but they did not change the forecast for the years ahead. i want to talk about the ecb, they are set to

we begin with a big issue, emerging markets asking the fed for help. >> the fed is always clear theyre making policy for america. but even if you do consider the rest of the world, you are not making policy to bail out countries that are running their economies badly. >> the fed is guided mostly by u.s. factors and it would take a massive global crisis to change the fed's behavior.

it is fed day, we have a huge day for you. this afternoon,n importt fed meeting. yo get david rubenstein of the carlyle group for most of the hour, kevin cirilli from singapore as well. you get david rubenstein as the media landscape changes. we'll talk to him about m&a. there is singapore. we are looking for kevin ciri this is bloomberg. ♪ what's a gig of data? well, it's a whole day's worth of love songs. 300 minutes of baby videos. a gigo lg waillion chat messages. that's why xfinity mobile lets you pay for data one gig at a time. and with millions of wifi hotspots included, you'll pay less for data. it's a new kind of network desied to save you money. click, call or visit a store today. ♪ tom: the president has landed. wargames iwashington. the pentagon is furious. on capitol hill, a debate on immigration. .t is a live meeting wage growth is dead. chairman powell will answer questions and a peaceful voice. comcast and disney declare war. , the game ofei thrones where dreams do come true. good morning everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am tom keene i

they were looking for 2% versus a 3.4% fed funds forecast.the forecast for 2018 back through years ago look at the forecast for this year they'll have 2.8% gdp growth with a 2.4% fed funds forecast that shows you relative to where they were -- >> more dovish >> thank you thank you. >> all i heard yesterday was hawk, hawk, hawk it was like an aviary. >> it's one month to the next they're hawkish. you go back and think about what they thought would happen this year, they're dramatically more dovish now than previously >> a lot of viewers may not be bond traders >> i think most -- i hope most are not. >> they care about interest rates, maybe for mortgages, credit cards >> they do. >> how much has the european central bank impacted our interest rates >> it's hard to tell i think it acts as something of a drag on the fed. the fed would be more or less where it is now relative to whatever the european central bank is doing. it's given the fed a bit of room to move without dramatically impacting the u.s. >> yeah. >> call it 50 basis points, maybe 10

intersection of the fed over the u.s. banks like j.p. morgan chase bank of america goldman sachs and in europe other banks for example the e.c.b. european central bank has jurisdiction over door to bank or u.b.s. the swiss bank and so forth so all of the biggest banks yes have colluded with the central banks but the central banks have also polluted with each other to keep the overall level of money available to these larger banks or larger corporations that they select in their various countries motivated by extra cash basically as opposed to using that money in any other purpose or simply not giving it to them right let's talk about the role of the central banks basically in terms of the overall relationship i mean really when we talk about the g. seven meeting sure the presidents will show up and kiss and shake hands but they're the day that does seem to be a very tremendous financial implication and sort of motivation to a lot of the deals being made there from these major companies countries but. what strikes me is that we're talking

the issue is with the fed. you could argue the fed has been signaling rate hike and balance sheet contraction for a long time. governor in an op-ed last week pointed out the surprise element, the u.s. fiscal stimulus. on one hand you have the fed balancing its sheet. suck out sack out -- lots of dollars. whammy witha double respect to em financing. you could've had the situation where emerging markets tried not to follow this idea. once we have our own idiosyncratic thing, we will not follow it. i am not sure that a lot of countries with money due in 2019, that is an option any longer. in just a moment. he will be back to discuss the outlook on the rupiah. onting closer analysis indonesia's central bank governor, telling bloomberg he stands ready to hike again, if that is what needed. rishaad: a look at india's state owned lenders. the very moment when most need a firm hand. why the chief executives are coming under pressure. ♪ rishaad: this is bloomberg markets. i am rishaad salamat in hong kong. indonesia's c

what is the fed saying?is grand, everything is good, and therefore we are taking an appropriate response to the. i do not think that is necessarily being seen as a signal to slowdown tightening in europe, because what the fed is saying is our economy is doing great, how about yours? david: i was suggesting the reverse of that. they are given some headroom, they are moving up, so we have a little more flexibility coming up a little earlier. paul: we have to remember, there have been factions on the ecb, the ecb president mario draghi -- clearly the rehabilitation program is working, and he has weaned away from that. there is a split in europe. everything is a compromise all of the time. wei think it is going to be will end bank by the end of this year. alix: taking a look at the ecb vs. the fed, you are looking at the financial index in both regions, much higher in the u.s. vs. the european index, which does not have as much loosening. thes well below that of u.s. i feel part of that, canad dice, is closing o

it will only take one member o fed to push the fed took four hikes this year. cleared to launch, at&t-time warner get the clearance to merge. in doubt,t error one faces a fight to keep in power as emerging markets suffer with the fed normalizing policies. david: welcome to "bloomberg dareak" on this wednesday, june 13. they made their announcement of the host of the 2026 host. nafta might not be there, but we will all play soccer together. you will have games all over? canada, three in mexico, three in the united states. inent to a couple of matches 1994. it is a big deal. alix: i'm scared. i'm scared. david: the host country gets a alix: even if you're terrible, you will make it? david: hopefully we will not be terrible. alix: in the markets, boring. s&p futures go nowhere. up despite industrial output disappointed in europe. we could get a fed rate hike today, the dollar flipping into negative territory throughout the morning. the spread one to watch, flat, flat, 40 basis points is how we trade. crude softer as well. russiay, it ial about wanting to pump more

the same applies for the fed as well. that is, the u.s.my is accelerating going into the second half. as long as it continues to do that, i think rates probably rise as a result. if that is not the case, things will revert that. -- revert back. jonathan: let me stress tests of that argument. if the ecb was not in the game, do economic conditions exist to justify the german curve to be negative about six years? krishna: ecb is in the game, so that is like saying, if the sun was not there, how would the day look like? central banks have an enormous influence from a policy standpoint on where rates are. ecb is in play because they want to support the economy. i don't think you can take it out and arrive at some natural rate of interest rates. jonathan: i'm guessing from the way you are sitting, you are more worried about what is happening in europe than krishna is. oksana: yes, and here is why. you cannot discount what the ecb has done. the ecb has created a essentially, a completely artificially priced asset class in europe. the reason that

andrea: i think the fed should continue, and that is what powell said. , the fed has to continue on that path. the fed hiking and the ecb staying unreasonably dovish is indicative of the the synchronization of growth we've seen between the u.s. -- the desynchronization of growth we've seen between the u.s. and the eurozone. jonathan: give us the perspective from london at the moment. what are the appropriate traits you've got at the moment that capture the kind of story we've been debating for the past six minutes? terms of income streams, it is pretty hard in government bonds. in terms of the u.s., a mild preference of flattening. our work indicates that the curve, when it moves, it tends to trend. but late in the game, it is hard to make money. here in europe, we think italy is a little overdone. draghi is effectively, one of the great things he has done, i suppose, is he's calmed down the italian situation. inicro situation we like europe is portugal. we've got a big football game tonight, portugal versus spain. you've got about 50 basis points spread over spain, and portugal is on it

jonathan: can the fed carry on going it alone?rea: i think the fed should continue, and that is what powell said. he said to extend this expansionary period, he needs to continue to hike, and the fed has to continue on that path. the fed hiking and the ecb staying unreasonably dovish is indicative of the desynchronization of growth we've seen between the u.s. and the euro area in the last six months. until the euro area growth can continue back to trend and move higher, we can continue for that to be the story. we can expect this to continue to be the story. jonathan: give us the perspective from london at the moment. what are the appropriate trades you've got at the moment that you think capture the kind of story we've been debating for the past six minutes? alan: in terms of income streams, it is pretty hard in government bonds. in terms of the u.s., a mild preference of flattening. our work indicates that the curve, when it moves, it tends to trend. but i think it is late in the game and hard to make money. here in europe, we t

i did not expect the fed to say including this is a fed that is acknowledging fiscal policy. he talked about incredible demand janet yellen would have said let's wait and see unless they're seeing it very differently than how they're acting right now, he talked about demand through 2019 and '20 and then he talked about the supply side. he also said two things to me that tell you he's a lot more hawkish than this sounded like first of all, he tells you the economy is sounding great and he telgs you labor is scarce, workers are hard to find flatioich is fed'sipe for wage biggest issue. bottom line is if people think this fed is going to go softly, i don't think so this is a guy that thinks this economy deserves much less accommodation. one more thing, mel, sorry he's taking away the toys. he was he's taking away the oioer, we don't need to get into that this is a policy statement i'm going to tell you we're not changing a thing, but i'm changing a lot. >> isn't it exaordinary then the markets really had very little reaction. >> little reaction. wkish than people thought atore t

it is the scenario where the fed, the fed hawks basically think they can move forward once, twice, but say to ms. the last. kathleen: see the curve here, looks like it is not auctioning very well. a little more relationship but many fed officials don't think it is broken. they expect wages to move higher and inflation to get to 2% and stay. there is caution on that expectation. haidi: it is going to be pretty busy going into central bank meetings around the world, starting right here in sydney. what are we expecting? kathleen: i think it will be interesting to see the policy statement, with the chief of the rba says after the meeting, when it comes to trade and trade tensions. no hikes seen yet. you are right. private investment, no longer feeling like a tailwinds very there are headwinds. you have tame inflation, below target, weak wages. the rba will probably be on hold all of this year and next year. we don't expect a lot, but we have to listen to the language that comes out. we have the reserve bank of india, the fed, the boj, a lot of central-bank activity. i am happy. haidi: [lau

what else can we expect from the fed? >> it is a full docket. you mentioned the number of the things. we are having a public board meeting tomorrow on this single counterparty credit limit provision. we also have quite a lot of work to promulgate rules after s 2155. we have a lot of work to do under that. we have to think about how we would reach below the threshold to assess and supervise , regulate financial stability risks below that level. what am i missing their? net stable funding ratio is out there to be done. there is a lot of work to do. if i can take this opportunity to say that the financial system all but failed 10 years ago. we went to work for 10 years to strengthen it. liquidity, stress testing, resolution planning, we want to keep all of that. we want to make it even more effective and efficient. we want to tailor those regulations for institutions for the strongest provisions to apply to the most systemically important solutions. we are committed to preserving and enhancing that structure. we are finding a lot we can do in the w

charles: we had a light session sell-off as the fed raised rates. i have got to tell you, they had a lot of great things to say about this economy. riding that pro-trump wave. last night a republican south carolina congressm mark sanford, a frequent trump critic, he was ousted by say they arring ton. he tweeted my political representatives didn't want me to get involved in the mark sanford primary think that sanford would easily win. congratulations to katie arrington. arizona congressm a business, member of the committee the freedom caucus. it's corey stewart won in virginia, you get mark sanford off. clearly it's so interesting. a couple weeks ago boehner was saying this is trump's gop. i think he wasn't saying it as a compliment, but it is trump's gop. >> as you know most of presidential nominees, they are the de facto leader of their party from the time they secure the nomination. president trump has had to fight for 24 months to get that role and can effective. i think what you are seeing now is he's going to be effective, and i think people lo