ears. >> looking at this holistically, it is really going the way the fed would like it. >> what fedakers need to do is double down on their commitment to inflation stability and targeting inflation. >> i think it is less what the fed speakers themselves say. i think it will come down to the data. >> the market recognizes what the fed is trying to do. the fed recognizes the fed will be data-dependent. >> retail sales supports the consumption side being weaker than we have seen. >> and with later, it shows a different picture when it comes to retail sales. >> the market more concerned that maybe the fed is more backwards looking and not interpreting, not fully appreciating some of the recent slowing of some of the data. >> backward-looking can be very dangerous in an environment where you have a lot of noise in the data. sonali: there are a lot of questions out there about how the current level of interest rates are starting to impact the economy moving forward. let's take a look at insisting home sales data to begin with, because the redline here is a month over month decline that yo

at that point the fed funds rate is over in inflation target well above the fed target. give the rate hikes time. the tenure just peaked in october and november. the funds rate just eat. come back to us in 2025. we believe the rates are working. we are seeing it in the data. we always expected the rate hikes to be back into this year. it is not change the story for us. sonali: how do you feel about the trading strategy given what we know today? gargi: the thing we have been talking about from the start of the year is the fact that we do like fixed income but where you own duration is important. keeping that duration contained in the belly of the curve, the front end to the belly, and then recognizing that this is an environment not for owning duration but for clipping coupons. allocating across ig, cross high-yield with active strategies that can clip coupon at these extremely attractive levels. you can build a portfolio earning at 6.5% yield where you look at a much riskier and higher volatility portfolio. you do not have to do that anymore. fixed income makes a lot of

what should the fed do?n say okay, these -- in a lot of the parts that are needs-based inflation are also very, very lagging. so why are insurance premiums up? because car prices and home prices rose. so first we have to get car and home prices down before we're going to get any -- we're talking about a five to eight-year change if it even resets lower. when if ever should we expect some relief in kind of needs-based inflation and what should the fed do about that? >> well, i think you're going to get it with a lag like you said. unfortunately i don't think you can do anything about it which is why it's super interesting that they focus on supercore which has essentially been a one-trick pony which is auto insurance. and you saw supercore this morning printed actually negative if you kind of unround it. and that was because auto insurance actually printed negative kind of weirdly for the first time i think since 2021. so focusing on supercore is kind of the wrong thing if you want to look at the things you a

we have put together our own mock fed consisting of market experts, former fed officials, economistsnd a realize giant. don peebls, roger ferguson, claudia sahm and paul mccully. and we asked them to vote as a mock fed governor would and decide whether to cut, to hold or hike base on their areas of expertise and how they see the economy. and here is their decision. with the exception of one person, don peebles the mock fed overwhelming voted to keep rates right where they are right now. let's bring in some of the members of our mock fed panel now to get them to share on why they voted the way they did. don peebles i'm going to start with you as the outlier, you say cut rates. don't just lee them where they are. explain your reasoning and get the conversation going. >> well, great. the first two reasons why is the consumers, who make two major purchases in their life time, and that's a home and it's a car. they do it with debt. so, up until 1983, the cost of capital interest rates were included in the calculation of inflation. and since then, they haven't. and as a result, we've used

that's because it believed the fed and the fed was saying, i love what's happening to inflation. of course, they got the shock of january, february and march. so, this fed feels burnt and, therefore, is not taking enough of a strategic view of the economy. >> why is that embarrassing. they reacted, haven't they, as they should, as the data changes, the market reprices the idea of when they think there are going to be rate cuts. it's not like the fed cut and had to go back because inflation all of a sudden perked up to start the year. they didn't have to do anything. the market had to adjust itself. whose fault is that? >> you forget about forward policy guidance. you forget about why we have dot plots. you forget about why wehave a press conference. the whole idea of forward policy guidance is to provide an anchor to the market. it is not that you swing the market around. you talk with liz ann about how low equity volatility has been. that's not the case for fixed income volatility. look at the four weeks with the last fed decisions. we had two-year go up to 5%, go down by 20 bas

and what causes them to get to the fed's target of 2%? back to the question i asked tim, do you have to have a recession to get there? >> tyler, we were saying that this was a supply driven inflation shock and inflation would come down despite all this government spending. that was the case for about 18 months. then all of a sudden in january, inflation trend turned for reasons that are not clear to me and i think many others. what that means is the fed has to take a much more cautious approach. i agree with what tim said. the fed will have at most i think one rate cut. that will happen after the election. fed needs three if not four good months to offset what we have seen. i expect inflation to moderate because i think the economy will weaken. i see some cracks. right now it will be more gradual than expected and not enough to get fed to ease soon. >> back to the point you made, tim, which is time may be the weapon. go ahead. >> joe, how about the mosaic of global central banks? what does that mean to you? it doesn't have to mean anythin

a week of so much fed speak.e have some key data and this they tension that has been culminating this week. over the weekend, a series of s&p forecasts to the outlook for years end. at a time when it is really being driven by a fewer and fewer group of stocks. we look at julian emanuel is that this upgrade is because of ai. i think it interesting to turn it on its head. should we be worried that the rest of this market isn't playing ball? >> this is something that is making her really uneasy. she can understand the logic but this is a record divergence with the small-cap stocks. you have to wonder at what point people don't participate. it just raises the question of the vulnerabilities. the fed maybe is going to cut this year. if this a market that is broken and there are too many price insensitive fires? -- buyers? lisa: it raises the question of what could potentially go wrong. when it comes to the political risk, it is impossible to be able to really price that out and yet last week it really was what happene

but it's not the jobs fed the feds job to make up for various inequities in society it is really hardo hit the two goals and i think defining the maximum employment goal so it is consistent with the price stability goal would be -- helpful in focusing them where they need to be. >> so -- let me brian let me give you a chance to talk about how you -- deal with qe and framework that mentioned in the framework. it doesn't show up in the summary of economic projections. it's clearly once said here, why do we call this unconventional monetary policies so do you think they need to elaborate on how they look at qe and when they do it? >> yeah. can i make a comment before i answer the question -- so -- >> yeah. i agree you know, the framework review did seem too specific to the problem of the day following up on what don was saying and if you think you want a framework that's robust to variety of academic changes and policy challenges i think really the -- the pieces of it that are robust to all of that are one inflation should average 2%. and 2 policymakers should be aggressive enough to kee

game of the fed staff, of economists throughoutthe omy, of trying to help the fed use the labor market information in a wbe helpful. >> would you revert to the deviations from its maximumlevel if you framework? >> i think i would. that's. >> the fed talked when they started this, it was about strategy, communications, and tools. were rewriting the framework? >> i think i would. that's. but they were silent on how they plan to use two of that have been used quite effectively in the last 15 years . forward guidance and quantitative easing. what would you have them do about those if you were helping them real whiteframework? >> a good way to put it. framework review should encompass two parts. one is the published in 2020 which included average inflation targeting, it included the shortfall of language but the other is the tools. but clearly they are using to deliver average inflation there were some mistakes and lessons to be learned on how they were implemented over this period. that would be a very important part of the review and really, learning about the tool is important more broad

to the fed.hole day talking about the. plot. the former st. louis fed president jim bullard, you remember he was the guide that left the. therefore years. he said i'm not playing this game anymore. lisa: he doesn't like the dots any think it's silly and he doesn't want to play but i'm excited he will play with us. i know that someone in our world is to blame. jonathan: go, perdue, indiana. lisa: that was the reason why we booked him. jonathan: 90 minutes away that conversation. the biden administration is looking to further restrict china for artificial intelligence. officials are looking to target new type of chip design used to process ai it's unclear when officials will make the final decision. we will talk about that later. europe and the united states are pushing back against china's advance. lisa: the way they are pushing back is different. we will parse that through over the next few months. there is a question of an effective band versus making it more expensive which is not really a ban

. ♪ coming up, fed divergence.t calls for one cut this year as markets and other central banks are more dovish. u.s. yields are driven lower as inflation data and consumer sentiment starts to cool. u.s. junk bonds head towards the strongest weekly return in six weeks as investors bet on more cuts. we begin with the big issue, deciphering the fed's message. >> the theme is patients. >> it is stay the course. it is cautioned. >> the fed will remain data dependent. >> there is no clear indication they will need to rush to cuts. >> if you look at the conference of look at the economy it is relatively strong. >> like they did not overreact a stronger inflation data, they are not going to overreact to the weaker inflation data. >> having been burned by the enthusiasm at the end of last year and the reversal on inflation, they are not going to want to reverse so quickly with just one good print. >> there will be cuts by the u.s. federal reserve at some point in the second half of the year. >> they will start cutting somet

the fed. look. as for his the eurozone is, the fed is the world central bank.he world's reserve currency. the fed is the driver for so many rates markets around the world. some central banks try to front run. the fed, it is a dangerous game to play. so for the ecb has gotten away with it. all the central banks that cut aggressively early last year were faced with crazy weakness. it is a check and balance. the markets had come hold on. you really can't cut this much. how the market can still turn on many economies around the world. jonathan: we will see the same thing happens. thank you, sir. swiss have gone. the president to see the major -- unprecedented to see the major banks. lisa: 4g10 countries have already cut rates. it seems like investors are on board with this and to expect the fed to join this incredible rate cutting party. as you saw coming that second strongest inflows in global bonds since july 2021. jonathan: can you imagine if chairman powell did the same thing? the political blowback in d.c. coming up, we will catch up on gamestop delivering a s

the latest fed inflation, i'm sorry. nothing to do with the fed.n with the big issue, evidence of disinflation. >> we are expecting a downside surprise in ppi. we were expecting a .2 encore cpi yesterday. we

let the fed's job to make up for it various science.it's really hard to hit those two i think defining the ultimate goals which consistentoal would be helpful and focusing t market does not show sharpen the economic projections. whywhathis unconventional monetary policy is become prettyentional. do we need to elaborate on how they look at qe? trucks yes go to make a comment before answer review deducting to specific to the problem of the day. if you think you want to framework that is robust to economic situation i think the pieces oft that are robust to all of that are inflation should average 2% and two policymakers should be aggressive enough to keep expectations near 2%. by the sea make the most robust properties of the framework. those are the most robust i'd not showing to review every five years in some sse the framework should be long-standing. maybe the five-year review should be what worked what didn't?úvd the situation brooks qe i think it's important to draw lessons. f it ends up in the new framework. as you nt was not in th

i guess we have fed speak to go on. >> we do have fed speak and the first wave has plenty of relevanceh back on, recharacterize or emphasize. it does matter. the market the last couple of days has come around to the idea that not too much changed about the fed stance, even though the market is getting impatient to see a clearer window toward potential ease. at this point i think we can live with it with longer term yields coming in a little bit. the industrials moved on. that was one of these little clusters of high fundamental conviction. you do have some of the names playing off the massive capex move. fastenal up 40% in the last year. so i think the idea people got a little too comfortable with raising earnings estimates and having this little bit of a jolt is a correction in a very strong theme not necessarily something that says the economy is in trouble. >> all roads go through technology right now? >> yeah. still do. i mean, apple is very significant, but the move in semis is just kind of white hot at this point. you have to be careful. there's been a ton of net inflows in the e

the bank of england are both head of the fed in this. monetary policy statements with pictures and layered communicat it. that's designed for people tounderstand. the big challenge is engagement for the bottom line is too big ofhe togive normal person of choic of reading a fed statement watching ephedra press conference or watching cap videos on youtube they will choose the cap videos almost eve the exception is when inflation gets really high. when did they pay when you're not achieving. it's l game. they do their job wellin the background nhey get attention. and then the research going on at the moment about how we can do this, what gets through? one worth mentioning we don't do reform central banker. i still say we. things in a very precise way. but also inlear that the links we have and our heads. they will say a series of statements thatess as a yes the model here.t a moderate rage. htness. inflation is still too high ther are no link or it's for normal people do not have form a narrative. and this confuses people. crucial you have

that is telling me the fed is changing more toward labor.gislature are sending letters to powell emphasizing this employment mandate. to be clear senator warren has been calling for rate cuts when inflation was 8%. she does have a good point in that the labor market is softening. there is lot of things causing inflation not within the fed's control. for example, i would say, trillion dollar deficit forever, probably is beyond the fed's control and causing upward pressure on inflation. now that is something squarely within senator warren and her colleagues. charles: joe, i love the point you made with the labor economists. i always told people it has been my experience 99% of them have been very progressive. that is not a surprise. 30 seconds to go. point out to the audience, we've come back here in the stock market, treasury auction. near where you wanted to go off on yields. dealers had to take less. direct bidders were strong. indirect were okay, maybe less than average. this was pretty strong auction on an important day. it saved the mark

the fed held stud , policy this time. the fed held study. making _ policy this time.he fed held study, making no _ policy this time. the fed held study, making no change - policy this time. the fed held study, making no change the| study, making no change the current benchmark interest rate. that stands at 5.25% — 5.5%, more than two decade high. officials consistently said they want inflation, and understandably toward 2%. this marks a seven street meetings without cutting interest rates. the summary of economic projections known colloquially as the dot plot showed that members of the fed are on average projecting one interest rate cut before the end of the year. there are only four meetings left this year which leaves questions about whether the fed will lower interest rates in september, the last chance before the us election, or it could cut in november or december at the tail end of the year. erin delmore reporting from the org. i have been speaking to hamish preston, head of us equities at index provider s&p dowager dynasty and he told me how the data were affec

the fed's inflation win. the s&p and nasdaq hit new records as cpi comes in soft er than even jerome powell expected. we will debate. >>> and banks breaking out, ending a three-day job draft, but one big name didn't come along for the ride. the stock on the sidelines and what it means for the sector. >>> plus, tim's blicep's trade gets a boost from lyft's surge. energy stocks take a hit. and an interesting trade in gamestop peaks our interest. what's behind the late-day selloff here? i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. we start off with markets pairing their gabs after jerome powell's press conference. but closing well off their highs of the session. the dow down about 35 points, take a look at some of the big winners of the day. banks rising more than 2%. home builders up more than 3%. apple and nvidia seeing outsized gains today. more on apple in a minute. but we begin with the headlines from the fed

data and the fed notes. now we have gotten most -- both, but it's interesting that it does not seem to be that one clear narrative markets are running on. we saw the core cpi rising at the slowest pace in more than three years, so raising hopes we would see that soft landing. as for the fed, the change in the outlook for interest rates coming in a bit more hawkish, but it seems that the s&p 500 running above 5400, the mega caps getting lifted overnight, the initial exuberance in asian markets did not quite translate into what we are seeing. the kospi paring gains from earlier on in the session. we are seeing the dollar pickup. the korean won is benefiting from lower u.s. yields, but look at the way the yen as well as the japanese currency are faring. we are keeping a close watch on what we are going to get on the boj tomorrow, but let's also digest and unpack what we got from the fed messaging. >> we see today's report as progress and as, you know, building confidence, but we don't see ourselves as having th

what is under the fed's control is that 0.1% year-over-year. the fed's job is done. in a million years i would never agree with elizabeth warren. my mother's watching but here i am, because for what the fed can control they have controlled for. charles: the fed and powell really focus on what people believe will happen, right? we had ned new york fed, consumer, see inflation a little higher. you saw something in the numbers was fantastic. where folks think they will be next year, vis-a-vis unemployment. a lot of people lower income, undereducated they're bracing for really ugly jobs market. >> they are, if they make less than 50,000 a year. if they're the least educated this is not a happy place for them right now. their paychecks are not outpacing, they're not outpacing. charles: we got it on the board. here we go, folks, look at this, the last four months, a spike, those with high school diplomas, see unemployment going through the roof, those making less than 50,000. lower end of income strata, will the fed wait for rich folks to scream uncle or at least listen to

>> if you're hoping for a week so the fed may cut, you are trying to thread a needle. >> the fed can cut but if they cut what is priced, you will not get any fully easing and financial conditions. >> they won the battle on inflation, they do not want to lose the war on a soft landing. >> there's no way they can signal a cut in july with this data. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern. jonathan: let's get the week started. good morning, good morning. bloomberg surveillance starts right now. your equity market negative .2%. it is super bowl week on wall street. it is all about wednesday's doubleheader. cpi in the morning, 8:30 eastern. later in the afternoon the fed decides. in a news conference with chairman powell at 2:30 after we spent the weekend waving goodbye to july. angela hollen horst going from july to september -- andrew hollenhorst going from july -- lisa: at a time it seems like the labor market will not give the open door to the federal reserve. where they put the balance of risks. do they upgrade their expectation

how do we fix the fed how do we fix the fed that's an interesting question.sident trump speaks to the business roundtable or it might not but we're going to preview the whole story, we have fed governor kevin worsham, what would he do if by some chance he were in charge. we will ask him. remember "kudlow" available as a podcast, a different outcome episodes available every weekday right after the show on spotify, apple fox business podcast.com, we'll be right back. it's payback time. all these years, you've worked hard. you fixed it. you looked after it. maybe it's time for your home to start taking care of you? we've invested in our home, we've worked on it, we had a whole lot of equity just sitting there, you paid down the mortgage, invested in your home. i guess, you could say, your home owes you. if you're 62 or older and own your home, learn how you can access a portion of your home equity to give you cash. a reverse mortgage can put more money in your pocket by eliminating your monthly mortgage payments, paying off higher interest credit cards, and cove

folks how do we fix the fed? how do we fix the fed? there is an interesting question.t might come up tomorrow when president trump speaks to the business roundtable or it might note. we'll preview the whole story. we have former fed governor kevin warsh. what would he do if by some chance he, wash, were in charge? we'll just ask him. remember "kudlow" available as a podcast, oh, no. the different episodes available every weekday right after the show on spotify, apple, foxbusinesspodcast.com. whoop dedoo, i'm a podcast. we'll be right back. me! we're talking about cashbackin. we're talking about cashbackin. we're not talking about practice? no. we're talking about cashbackin. we're talking about cashbackin. we're talking about cashbackin. not a game! we've been talking about practice for too long. -word. -no practice. we're talking about cashbackin. we're talking about cashbackin. i mean, we're not talking about a game! cashback like a pro with chase freedom unlimited. how do you cashback? chase. make more of what's yours. ♪ in any business, you ride the line between nu

how do we fix the fed how do we fix the fed that's an interesting question.president trump speaks to the business roundtable or it might not but we're going to preview the whole story, we have fed governor kevin worsham, what would he do if by some chance he were in charge. we will ask him. remember "kudlow" available as a podcast, a different outcome episodes available every weekday right after the show on spotify, apple fox business podcast.com, we'll be right back. daughter: hey, dad. dad: hey, sweetheart. daughter: what are you doing? dad: i'm gonna clean the fence. daughter: it's a lot of fence. dad: you wanna help me? dad: aim at the wall, but get closer. daughter: (gasps) what the?! daughter: alright. dad: side to side. when you work with someone who knows a lot and cares even more... you can do this. ...you're unstoppable. (♪) wow... are you kidding me? you can do this. at truist, we believe the same is true for banking. if your business needs a new application then developers will have to write code. a lot of code. if an application needs to be moder

which should the fed be tackling?t's been the wild card that makes this feel different. >> well, the inflation environment has stayed high for long. and although it helps our business, and i'll explain why in just a second, the reality is especially on the lower end consumer, the longer it goes, the more pressure that's out there. i think people are being creative on how to overcome those incremental inflation costs. working from home, less child care cost, less commuting costs. but for us, in our business, the reason inflation is actually somewhat of a positive for us is seven out of eight consumers purchased their ownership ten years ago. so they're vacationing for 2015 with 2017 dollars. when a hotel has gone up 30% in a given year, our consumer is saying, i paid for mine ten years ago, so why wouldn't i go on vacation? we're in a really good spot, because we saw coming out of covid, people are definitely going to travel. it's just how. and our business model, inflation has not hurt us really much at all over the l

you have the atlanta fed now down below 2%.p is now running below the fed funds rate. so you still need to get to that point, hey, you know what, maybe policy is restrictive. maybe we can see our way toward -- a week from tomorrow the fed meeting starts. a lot of these numbers are what we're working with when powell comes out on the stage. >> you heard robert kaplan, no june, no july, talking september. >> september needs to stay in play, i think. >> good stuff, mike. thank you. mike santoli, see you tomorrow. i'll send it into "ot" with morgan and jon. [ bell ] >>> well, a mixed bag to start the week as investors weigh soft manufacturing data against enthusiasm about nvidia's new chips. the dow closing well off lows after dropping more than 400 points earlier in the day. and the s&p closing a little better than flat, feels like a victory. that is the score card on wall street. but we'll stay late. welcome to "closing bell overtime." >> late-day buying. coming up this hour, we'll talk to t. rowe about the new headlines from nvi

they are also coming before the fed and before clarity around what the fed will do next.een a lot of interest in to european equities for this very reason, not only for home investors based in europe, but also for u.s. investors as well if you look at u.s. etf flows. there is an appetite for your -- there is an appetite for european exposures we like that through an active lens. industrials and energy, and this is how we want to play europe. jonathan: many officials on the governing council would argue they are independent on the federal reserve. how dependent are they on what happens? wei: if you had asked me at the beginning of the year do you think the ecb would go before the fed i would have said no. i would have said no. the fact they are going this thursday is remarkable. they will start first but we do not think they will go far if the fed does not follow. there is a narrative of divergence as a result of the ecb going now and who knows when the fed will go. ultimately they are related through the currency effect. jonathan: you think that narrative is overstated? w

that's not where the fed is at. he's happy with it and he's happy with their trajectory on rate cuts which is for one, cut this year as well. this is just a forecast and only as good as what the someday tafanely is and totality of the data so he's going to wait it out. he's comfortable waiting it out and stapedius muscling where they're at. he doesn't want to -- standing where they're at and doesn't want to make the one extreme error that a central bank can make and prematurely cut rates when inflation is still as high as it is. liz: what with thought was the most anticipated part of the meeting was not the seventh pause, it was the dot plot. nor those not knowing what the dot mott. it's the individual quarter that with them and getting medium forecast with the issues and the dot plot for those and one rate cut down from three last time we got a dot plot in plot in march and four of 19 participants here and? >> on the new rate cuts some have had rate cuts and having a rate hike here and going to guess and sitting at

the nasdaq getting a big boost from broadcom and back to the fed. fed holding on rates and for now at least forecasting just one cut this year. chair jerome powell saying the central bank is ready to act if the economic picture changes >> if the economy remains solid and inflation persists, we're prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate as long as appropriate. if the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or fin flakes were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we're prepared to respond. >> we're also taking a look at the bond market's reaction to the fed decision and the powell presser, specifically the ten-year yield you can see here after the presser just ticked up a little bit. if you want to look at the fed impact on the market, specifically the bond mark, jocks report and big spike to the upside, ten basis points and then stayed at that level after the core expected cpi report again, a bit of an upturn after the fed signaled higher for longer that's your morning money setup. we'll turn back to the market whic

of the big fed decision at 2 p.m.e girard is the head of u.s. business of natwest market and joints me now. you have the market exuberant just from the stock market to the bond market. if you see the move we had and bond yields today alone, do you think they're justified? >> i think the market is certainly anticipating that it will be easier with more evidence that inflation is moving lower for the fed to move policy to a less restrictive stance. you see in the bond market, the market is pricing in fed rate cuts earlier than expected, more than had been feared would be the case when we had stronger data. for the equity market, also the benefit of the fed pivot being much more likely now and being able to look ahead while the economy is still showing signs of relative resilience to be able to think about the fed doing what it can to support the economy, avoiding a hard landing by taking -- by having more room to take his foot off the brake if it can before the end of the year. sonali: what are you looking for today fro

the fed is unlikely to do anything. in other words, the fed is less mild -- the 2% target is longer than what was expected, which is different from the ecb, by the way. >> very much so. let's continue focused on the fed for now. it's changed significantly from six months ago. ultimately do you think we'll get clarification on whether we're going to get any rate cuts this year? >> look, i think we should eventually. today the fed is going to provide some signaling to that end in the form of updated dot plot. the dot plot was showing three cuts this year. i think that's definitely going to change, probably to two cuts at most, maybe even one. that's because since then things have not played into what the fed expected is. actually the forecast from the fed today are probably going to show sticky inflation and softer growth. >> if we indeed see the fed challenge the dot plot to one rate cut this year, what could be the implication on the markets? what are we likely to see on wall street in the wake of that? >> i think the m

the fed cuts, the fed stays on hold. the reality is that the data has been pretty mixed.ion from earlier. bill dudley, wonderful to speak with you. let's get you an update on stories elsewhere this morning. here is your bloomberg brief. yahaira: a chinese spacecraft carrying samples collected from the far side of the moon has returned to earth. it landed in inner mongolia carrying materials from one of the oldest impact craters in the solar system. this was one of the first sample return missions to go to the moon's far side where communications are more difficult because it never faces earth. the gag order against donald trump in his new york hush money case has been lifted for the most part. a judge ruling trump canal talk about witnesses and jurors, though he is barred from revealing jurors' identity giving him a way to criticize the proceedings as he campaigns for the white house. the former president had said that the gag order prevented him from responding to attacks. trump and president biden are due to debate tomorrow night in atlanta. new hampshire is suing tikto

— used otherwise that they are bein: fed? ., , being fed? that might be part ofthe being fed?nvestigative l of the story but investigative journalists have gone down and investigated the fish factories investigated the fish factories in west africa just as was done recently by feedback global and they show just by the norwegian salmon industry over 2 million tonnes of wild fish are being taken from west africa to feed the salmon industry in norway. you are sending this open letter to the un. what is it you want them to do about it? we want them to clarify the position on sustainable aquaculture. right now, the communications are very misleading. aquaculture is a very broad term, it refers to everything from seaweed farming to small scale bivalve farming to small scale bivalve farming to carnivorous fish farming. we are asking them to clearly define that sustainable aquaculture does not include carnivorous fish farming like salmon, sea bream and sea bass. if there is this need for protein around the world, what is the alternative solution? well, if that is the need, that carniv

fed and on rates.wo cuts could still be in the cards for this year. markets are once again ahead of the fed meeting hitting new records. tom lee is here to lay out why those fresh highs may not be done just yet. elon musk is threatening to keep iphones from entering the doors of his companies. it is tuesday, june 11th, 2024. you're watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. i'm frank holland. thank you for joining us. let's pick up with a check of u.s. stock futures with the s&p and the nasdaq hovering at fresh record highs. look at futures. they have been in the red all morning along across the board. looks like it would open 100 points lower. the records we saw yesterday came despite a poor showing from apple shaved more than 30 points from the s&p and notched its worst post worldwide developers conference reaction in a decade. two big dips there is the reaction to that big a.i. announcement. >> the introduction of powerful new apple intelligence features to ioa 18, i pass ios 18 and make these rele

if we look at the san francisco fed's proxy fed funds rate which factors in other monetary policy tools, we're at 6.3% right now. this is pretty restrictive given the environment and the progress we made on disinflation. so, i think this actually makes the case for a july cut. i don't know if the fed will be that bold to do that, i think we will get a september cut if not a july cut. >> mohamed el-erian was with us and argued for the same reasons you mentioned too, he thinks the economy is weaker than most people would otherwise want to believe, that they should cut now. they should cut in july. now, i think the chances of that arereasonably low, right? pretty low at this point. others make the case that rate cuts for any reason are going to be positive for the market. that the chances of us going into a severe or steeper recession between now and the end of the year unlikely. but the fed wants to cut, they keep telling you they want to cut. bostic said, yeah, probably appropriate to cut later this year. and that's going to be positive. why get negative in front of that? >> i think that

he has every right to remove the fed chair and put a different fed chair in.n markets? the former president tends to respond to market action. jonathan: i think we are all listening in the last hour ago, all thinking the same thing, thinking about november. demand for ai service fueling a big jump in sales while it also raises outlook for the year. server railing is spurred big gains at the likes of dell and supermicro. rallying this morning big time. lisa: really we've seen the winners and losers of who is adapting ai quickly enough. we've seen salesforce fall out of bed because they can monetize until 2025, and then the likes of hewlett-packard being able to monetize a more significant way. that is what i'm watching in the months to come. jonathan: let's turn to that bond market rally, hitting pause . were nude optimism for fed rate cuts. income saying a generational reset on yields is said to spur a bond revival. the bond manager policing is secular outlook saying active fix outcome is positioned to perform well if there are no recessions and even better if

when people are fed, futures are nourished.n the movement to end hunger and together we can open endless possibilities for people to thrive. visit feedingamerica.org/actnow people couldn't see my potential. so i had to show them. i've run this place for 20 years, but i still need to prove that i'm more than what you see on paper. today i'm the ceo of my own company. it's the way my mind works. i have a very mechanical brain. why are we not rethinking this? i am more... i'm more than who i am on paper. >> a strong report. >> stronger than what people expected going in. >> it does close the door on a july rate cuts. >> i think the fed would still like to get a cut for two done. >> i still think september. >> we think the fed will be able to cut in september and december because we think inflation is going to recede with moderation. >> in terms of equities, the fed pushing out with cutting is good news. >> if you get it wrong and you weaken too quickly it will be a difficult mistake to correct. paul: bloomberg tv guests reacting t

the problem is this fed pivot because if the fed indicates they're going to pivot sooner rather than later that's a sign that they're clearly winning the war on inflation. and we don't quite have that. so that's what the problem is. and if there's a down side to this i would say that right now i think it's probably going to prevent more money from coming into the market. maybe that's a good thing. we're at new highs right now. but i think that's the clear down side. but as you can see from the modest decline here when you have disinflation, rising earnings, a big shiny new tech paradigm in the form of artificial intelligence and a couple years out of a recession still growing, that's enough to support the market. guys? >> and it is for now. bob, thanks. we appreciate it. bob pisani. >> let's go to chicago for reaction from the bond market and rick santelli. hi, rick. >> hi, tyler. indeed, modest progress is what everybody seems to be hanging their hat on. and as you look at a two-year, that was right around 2.68. yes, we've moved up a couple of basis points. then opened a chart up to

louis fed president. he's the latest fed president to take office just in april. this is his first speech that we've been able to see so far. he says the early signs of continued progress on inflation, and that financial conditions are accommodated for some parts of the economy, restrictive for others. he said it could take quarters to determine the right time or conditions to be in place in order for the fed to cut rates. if progress toward the goal stalls or reverses, the fed should act promptly. but he's optimistic that price stability can be achieved. so maybe a touch on the hawkish side, which would not be unusual for the st. louis fed president traditionally anyway. but he's now the fourth fed speaker of the day, and really we're no closer to understanding when the federal reserve may cut interest rates. >> i think it's more difficult the more fed speakers we have. thank you, steve. >>> lennar beating the top and bottom lines. but shares under pressure after the home builder's third quarter delivery forecast fell short. our next guest has a $198 price target

would ask her about the fed. it would be interesting to see if she talks about it but fed treasury secretaries don't usually talk about it. i was interested in what she was saying how sustainable the deficit was over a period of time and i'm sure you are thinking and as treasury secretary she's sat there and presided over a pretty meterik rise over deficit. >> a fair and good question. steve, thank you talk to you in just a little bit. >> sure. >>> when we come back, don't miss our exclusive interview with thereby secretary janet yellen come up at 7:30 eastern time "squawk box" returns after this. consider ders even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade brilliantly with schwab. wall street forecasts over $100 billion in s

fed, in terms of the asymmetry of the fed.ed to this very disported form of what we have today. >> there is something for everyone in this. this is not just government's fault. this is big corporations that want bailouts. >> yes. >> but they ruin capitalism, too. we have problems from government and corporatism -- >> the problem is -- it's a cliche. the gains have been privatized, the losses have been socialized. >> the moral of the story remains that if you can -- they're both at fault, governments and corporations, but capitalism in its purest form is the way we need to go. >> i'm not sure you can say that either because you also talk about competition. >> yes, but i say in the book -- >> that there's not enough competition. that goes to the government part. >> and that hurts capitalism. >> but you need government to do that, maybe. >> the risks, andrew, tent to be business. who are the people able to gain the regulations, to pay for the entire regulatory environment? it's principally big business. the cost today on wall str

we've got to get you on the mock fed, mike.you would be in the cutting camp for tomorrow, but the expectation is no cut now until september, december? >> our survey -- let me give you a fresh quote here. you're just at 54% -- sorry, i need my glasses, i apologize. you're at 51% for september in the market. our survey was 46%. but let me add one very quick fact. 66% of our respondents think the biggest risk here, the most likely outcome, is the fed cuts too late. so that is the risk right now that is most on the minds of our respondents to the survey. >> gentlemen, a pleasure. thank you both. >>> next hour on "power lunch" don't miss the debut decision of our mock board. we'll speak with six of these seven names next hour. >>> the market may be at all-time highs, but there are a handful of companies punished. my next guest says it wasn't warranted in all cases. he has three names with attractive entry points, including lows. that was our history chart. david cat >> the ceo at matrix asset advisers. david, before i dive into lowe

it's fed day so nick wells on our data team puts together the then and now, so before fed started towhere we were now on things like mortgage rates. it's interesting to look, this is how it feeds through, how it affects everybody. mortgage rates, big jump since back in march 2022, when they started. the 30 year fixed mortgage, remember 4.32% now we're above 7%. credit card rates big jump to 20%. used vehicle, this was already march 2022, when there was anticipation of hikes. used vehicles 9.1% to 11.5. this is how it feeds into the economy and what the fed wants to see as progress, lagged impact, stronger, higher rates, hurting the consumer, hurting demand finally seeing inflation come down. if that's the story today then fed has to be really happy. >> at least we got real wages. positive for 13 straight months. >> even better news. if they can accomplish this inflation coming down, while protecting jobs and wages, that's the ultimate soft landing and win for the fed. >> let's get what investors are expecting from the fed and the market. wells fargo, cio wealth and investment managem

the fed. first half of the year, all we talked about was the fed.ed matters for investors right now. >> really? you are saying this debate has taken the focus off the fed? >> i think the focus has already come off the fed. we entered the year hoping for six rate cuts. we're down to two, maybe even one. i think you could make an argument for investors all looking past the fed at this point. >> gunjan, with the new article out. word of the day trump-trade. thank you. one quick look at futures before we let you go. futures have been higher all morning long. the dow would open up 20 points higher. that's going to do it for us. "squawk box" starts right now. >>> good morning. democratic party fund-raisers are sounding the alarm after president biden's debate performance last night. some long-time backers are raising the prospect of changing him on the ticket. we will have the latest from the candidates and the comments on inflation and the economy. >>> later this morning, we get the fed's favorite inflation gauge. we will tell you what to expect from the

so this fed has not a clue, but that doesn't make it distinct from any other fed that we've seen overo my forecast has generally been status quo and that is that the fed has already overtightened but they won't realize that until after the wheels fall off which they're starting to do already in the economy. it hasn't yet manifest or been reflected in the markets but i believe that will. charles: right. >> at which point the fed will panic and reverse course and it will overstimulate. then we'll have the inflation problem again and lather, rinse, repeat. am i too jaded? charles: no, no listen, this is why we love you, but you do the work, all right? people, you've got a strong reputation on wall street and you're seen as a voice of reason. there is a echo chamber, particularly amongst economists because i love having you on the show. i was going to say mr. magoo always did find a way to always land on his feet. one thing that bothers me, they keep saying they're data dependent. they have 400 phds, they have can't figure anything out until the data comes out but who can depend on the da

pricing in a full cut from the fed for november but we will hear from the fed today. bloomberg's mike mckee joins us. let's start with the may cpi, flat month over month in may. mike: i feel at the halftime host giving highlights of the first half because we are only half way through the day and we have to get to the fed decision and jay powell's news conference. started off on a good fit next foot because cpi comes in lower than -- foot because cpi comes in lower. driving down the year-over-year which wasn't expected. the core comes in up just .2 percent wish -- which pushes it down. a good result. what did we see happen? basically, the super core for the month comes in negative for the first time in many months and that is good news for the fed because they have been anticipating that. you can see what we see on our function, you can see the breakdown of what happened. the overall number basically did. what did the undercarriage look like, the biggest contributor is gasoline, down 3.6%. that is good news. motor vehicle insurance down for the first time since october

charles: kudlow for fed chair, next fed chair, right? >> i don't think so. charles: got one vote here, that's for sure. thanks a lot, everyone. good afternoon, i'm charles payne. this is "making money." breaking right now, we are in a market that it want to go higher, pretty obvious, right, unsure what the proper catalyst should be. yeah, bad news will bring in the fed, good news also brings in strong earnings. then of course there are those who say look abroad for your next big move. meanwhile all eyes on jay powell but we forget why the fed was created. i will give you a hint. you have to be a bank to be in the club. 401(k)s are in a lot of hot watered, folks from politicians, who say simply not living up to the hype. how to make sure your golden years are truly golden. wnba superstar caitlin clark score a big winter gig. we'll talk about new investor into a professional womens winter basketball league. talking about people who love to work as much as i do. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: you know, this current bull market was born

so what does the fed do in that context? is 2.4 good enough or do you want unemployment to go to 5% or higher to get from 2.4 down to 2? >> we're going to get pce this week and i think many assume that it's going to be a reasonably favorable reading my question to you, i suppose, at this point is what's it going to take, is it even worth thinking about, what it would take to make july a live meeting? >> you know, scott, i think that's an excellent question and i tend to think july is more live perhaps than the market does we're looking at 10% probability on july. >> wow >> i'm just trying to think about -- and here is what i'm gaming out -- is dan still there because i'd love to hear what he has to say about it? >> i am, sir i am. >> all right, dan, work with me on these numbers here. if the forecast is right, 2.8 to 2.6 and let's say you get 2.6 down, that's how many months in a row? let's count it, april was good, may was good, june was good, july would be good that would be four months in a row of good inflation and powel

the fed next week at the ecb forum?yes. sarah will be interviewing him. i just want to say one thing. i understand why these pre-eminent economists here on the panel are talking the way they are. they're talking within the framework the fed has laid out. that's the kind of forecasting that they need to do for their customers. but i think there's another way to think about it, which is the framework the fed hasn't laid out. let's go back and talk about the fact that we're coming up at the end of this month on the 12th month or the one-year anniversary of the fed being at 5.38. of that period of time, the inflation rate has fallen from -- which number do you want, kelly? let's give you the core number of 4.20, down to 2.60 today. over that time, there's been no relief at all in the funds rate. and so to me, sticking there, i think, is taking a very high risk that the economy suffers much more than it otherwise needs to, because they had set a rate, the funds rate for one level to bring inflation level down. it's come down