the federal reserve is a contested terrain. the idea is that the federal reserve is a very important macroeconomic and political institution in our economy. and being such a important institution because it sets interest, it regulates the banks, etc. determines unemployment some extent. and all of this interest groups and all classes and subclasses are all fighting for influence over federal reserve as they are central banks in other countries as well. and and so the federal reserve in principle can be influenced by banks, by outside groups, by politics, loans, etc., depending on who has levers of power to influence it. and i do think there has been a change. we did our in the 19, in the ancient, it was the eighties when we did our way. and then in the 19 6870s and eighties, i guess in that after the i think a lot of it had to do with the occupy what the financial crash occupy wall street people mobilized but even more so when when george floyd was murdered and black lives matter became very active and a lot of federal reserve

government has over the federal reserve at the moment? answer to congress and that is something that is important as well and congress could change their mandate. the idea that we have a 2% inflation target is not a law. the idea that we have sort of very loose guidelines on what the fed does is part of what is guiding the fed at the moment and that could be changed by congress. so if they wanted to have more er sight there are areas that they could do that. most countries have gone towards more rural based kind of look at their central banks so the central banks are even more independent in terms of the political pressures. what is best for everyone is for inflation to get down and the federal reserve to do it's job. doing that within the least amount of consequences for unemployment as possible. >> so let's look at this environment that we are in. there may be some americans who would say we would like interest rates to be lower and mortgage rates to be lower and like the fed to lead that effort by lowering interest rates. you have j po

the federal reserve a corporate. you are supposed to pay for your operating costs off of positive cash flow. right now, the fed has negative cash flow. it is not entirely unrelated at the federal reserve is operated $133 billion loss on its balance sheet this year. it's not the right approach, i think to be paying that much out. . holding capital in the fed when he could be deploying it in the market. right now, the interest you are paying money market funds exceeds you are getting on the $7.6 trillion balance sheet access that you have to the tune of $133 billion asset. the fed is operating at an operating loss. what is the path to cash flow positivity? >> as you know, for many years, we've contributed way over $1 trillion in good earnings to the bank, the treasury department. you cannot look without mentioning we've been giving $100 million a year in profits every year to the treasury department. you've decided that when we raise rates to do the job you have assigned us to get inflation under control, when we do th

your thoughts on the us federal reserve and what it i us federal reserve and what it will do with interestutlook? you will still get cuts in interest rates and i suspect they will be two, maybe three and they will be delayed because they need further convincing. the last mile in reducing inflation has been run and one and they do not have that yet. it will be slower, possibly one less cut this year but nevertheless i think that will be the trend. in recent years, mexico has experienced a major uptick in capital investment, largely through the phenomenon known as nearshoring. amid the trade war between china and the us, scores of chinese companies have been taking advantage of conditions in northern mexico to get around us sanctions on chinese goods by making those same products in mexico instead. at the same time, some big us firms have relocated from asia to mexico too. while nearshoring has provided the mexican economy with a major boost during the global economic downturn, many are asking if the boom can last. our mexico correspondent, will grant, reports from the northern city of monte

when the federal reserve was created in 1913 the economy did not run on all this debt, the federal reserve does not work anymore or very delayed, the reason why the longer for hire narrative that is happening right now with the federal reserve is taking a bit of a toll in the market because it eventually absolutely hit the margins for companies. if you look at u.s. investment-grade debt for the year there is $800 billion of debt set to mature in 2024 that is a lot of debt being refinanced at the higher rates. maria: what about the broader earnings, how do you see? >> right now the market is expecting 7% earnings growth for the last quarter with earnings, that seems pretty high. with that being said consumers have the spending addiction that i was just talking about the beginning where they will take out new debt and are comfortable with taking out new debt. in 1913 when the fed was created people did not have cars, cars were not around people did not take half credit cards and take out debt, the comfortability in the mindset the philosophy around debt is a lot different. i think consumer i

. [30 head of any eventual cut by the federal reserve.— federal reserve.rve. do you think this is turning the _ federal reserve. do you think this is turning the tide - federal reserve. do you think this is turning the tide on - federal reserve. do you think this is turning the tide on the | this is turning the tide on the negative narrative about the city, about london, pose brexit, for example, the concern that there would be less attractive place to do business, also today we have got the news that chief executives in the us are paid a lot more than they are in the united england, the latest statistics coming out to show that, and therefore, this could attract out of bosses over to the united states, there is always the conversation, isn't there? , ., , ., there? yes, there was one long-term _ there? yes, there was one long-term worry _ there? yes, there was one long-term worry in - there? yes, there was one long-term worry in fact - there? yes, there was one long-term worry in fact for long—term worry in fact for capital markets here in the uk in londo

governor and the first ever federal reserve bank president. these are historic milestones that show that we are making progress to the leadership of our economic institutions, so i want to applaud that, and mr. chairman, i hope that progress can continue and extend to the rest of the federal reserve staff. >> thank you. >> i agree with my friend, the ranking member, that when you tell a story, you should tell the whole story. mr. chairman, are you aware of the washington post article that says the economy is roaring -- and immigration is a key reason? >> i don't recall that, but i would've read it. >> let me read it to you. immigration has propelled the u.s. job market further than just about anyone expected, helping some of the countries economic rebound from the pandemic as the most robust in the world. it goes on to say, economists and labor experts say the surge and employment was key to solving unprecedented gaps in the economy that threatened the country's ability to recover from prolonged shutdowns. would you take issue with those state

austan goolsbee, federal reserve bank president. good to see you. >> great to see you again. what the fed does at the next meeting? >> great relief to my colleagues and as i always start, i do not speak for anyone else on the committee, i speak for myself. neil: you seen these crosscurrents. >> crosscurrents, we are in an environment like you said with crosscurrents for the second half of 2023 made good progress getting the inflation rate down from the unbearable peace that it had reached and we did that without a recession which was virtually unheard of and now at the start of this year we've gotten multiple inflation readings that are higher than where we wanted them to be. one month is no months, but 2 months you've got yourself a real months and now we've got 2 to 3 months of cbi inflation. we will see what happens on pce inflation but we must get inflation back down, the law says we need to maximize and play men, stabilize prices, and if we are not getting the job done we have to get the job done. neil: we are told personal consumption particularly the core part of that

—— could the federal reserve's delay... ...ible the riht thin for our econom , the right thing for our economy, but of course _ the right thing for our economy, but of course we _ the right thing for our economy, but of course we are _ the right thing for our economy, but of course we are looking - the right thing for our economy, but of course we are looking at - the right thing for our economy, but of course we are looking at the | but of course we are looking at the federal reserve, and our us colleagues have pushed back their own expectations of cuts to december this year on the back of the report, on the back of the previous... report, that their economy is... strong and the recession dynamics are very strong. the latest cuts to the cycle could maybe have... inaudible no... from but from bank of england,...— no... from but from bank of encland,... . . ~ england,... bare central bank... inaudible _ inaudible you mention the european central bank there. in the eurozone, they were among the latest that are raising rates and i

maria: you mentioned whether or not federal reserve going to get political in environment commoditiesre we've economy that shows growth in jobs, and questions about whether or not federal reserve should be cutting rates at all, some people think the fed is going to do i it nay because they align with democrats, jim grant with me a few minutes ago watch this. >> i believe, that the fed itself regardless of potential secretary determine for donald trump a clear and present danger to our june that is why -- >> politically, very much aligned with democratic party. maria: what about that stephanie pomboy does that work into thinking in terms of where the fed goes now? >> well, one thing for sure. donald trump is a clear present danger to jay powell, because always already said will not reappoint jay powell, so -- >> interview in february said i am not going to reappoint him. >> exactly, so, i mean jim grant is correct, i don't know if applies to fed more broadly i wouldn't understatement entire to cut rates in advance of defection would underscore something we said average american out you

right now with former federal reserve governor kevin washington. it's great to see if we thank you so much for joining us this weekend. i went to your take on what we are in terms of the inflation story and the growth story but how would you assess the macro story today? >> i think the number one take away is that inflation continues to eat away at real incomes, real take-home pay is not keeping up with the surge in prices over the last several years. the knicks nick's of policies e bite administration of the bryden biden/yellin access is doing real harm to prices the average basket of prices that are typical consumer would pay as up more than 20% in last two years. real take-home wages are up about one half of that. no wonder the american people feel they need a change in policies. >> were getting sticker shock every time you go to the grocery store for sure. you got all of the essentials rising wouldn't gasoline up 52% on joe biden's watch consumer prices up 18.9%, credit card debt up 46%. wages are down in the middle of all that down to nap% on

the federal reserve�*s next policy meeting will start at the end of april.sions in the middle east have also been weighing on markets. and the conflict in the region has been cited as a risk to recovery for the global economy by the international monetary fund. in its annual report, the imf said growth would remain steady this year largely propped up by emerging economies like india. but high inflation and weak demand in china and europe are major challenges. the bbc�*s economics editor faisal islam has more from washington dc. we have got new numbers from the imf, theirforecast for the world economy, and it shares a world economy, and it shares a world economy, and it shares a world economy that is more resilience and mainly driven by what is happening here in the us and in some emerging economies, such as india. there is a big black cloud over the world economy in terms of the economic consequences of what is happening in the middle east. actually, the impact in energy and oil markets has been far less than expected given what happened over the weekend, th

congress as chair of the federal reserve. we thank you for your service and commitment to congressional oversight. it is very much appreciated. i will now recognize myself for five minutes. let's begin with what is top of mind. two issues are top of mind with the fed. regulatory policy and interest rates. will will will will we are in a political year. this falls heavily on all parts of the government. this is after the past three years of high inflation and the impact on american families. now that inflation is receding there has been a great deal of speculation about when the fed will cut rates. some say there will be a lot of rate cutting this year, some say none. what say you? >> i say that really will depend on the path of the economy. our focus is on maximum employment and price stability. any incoming data will affect the outlook. those are the things we will be looking at. i can go further if you would like. >> at what point will the fed be forced to cut rates? what data would you point to and do you have any updates

jon: you were bullish, but that was independent of a view on the federal reserve. you said all along that the federal reserve may not cut that much, if at all, in 2024. that hasn't changed? john: it hasn't. when the fed gets to cutting it may not be cutting because we are in a recession or the fed fears we could move into one. it has the job done and it might be considering that it has 2% in sight, on the horizon, or that we have arrived at. i can't tell, but we have been big fans of the fed for years. i have been in the business for 40 years and i learned early on -- voelker was the head of the fed in his second term. i learned fast that if you don't get attuned to what the fed is doing -- and sin bernankec the fed has been so communicative. it has been helpful to say the least. lisa: the bears have been humiliated. there is the question of how do you get more bullish when everyone seems to be coming to your side? don't throw the babies out with the bathwater and if you see babies who have been thrown out, cuddle them and bring them back in. is there bathwater bei

, the central bank of america , but people think that because they say the federal reserve is dependent on the federal government, when it is not, it is a private company. now this is a separate issue. dear journalist , you aired a part about the student protests in america, this is nothing new, the vietnam war, how many lies to the people, preparing the people to send their children to the war, and then they found out that america's governors lied , the things that they said were lies. arrived somewhere for example, in connection with an officer who ordered the attack in vietnam in 1969, a part called hamburger hill, the us soldier was awarded a reward of 10,000 dollars. leave it for the person who kills it. between 1969 and 1971 , there were 730 cases of attacks on american officers in the vietnam war , with grenades, 73,730 cases, which were written in this book, america without masks, this year, 1,378,79. between the vietnam war and the protests that are now in the united states, well, when the american soldiers of the american army actually fled from the war in vietnam th

neil: the federal reserve will wrap up a today meeting tomorrow but it could signal concerns. >> they should signal concerns. it is clear we've had three months of month over month trending get at higher inflation. you can't hide it anymore. they are not doing anything in june or july. neil: what if there is no cut? there shouldn't be a cut. >> empirical evidence shows when the misery index is going up we found we had negative job losses in the third quarter of 2,020 after revisions. people 1:45 thousand 20 after revisions. people losing their jobs at the pace at which they are over which there is no control is rising, the fed should be leaning and lowering interest rates providing relief from lower income earners. neil: feeling the next move. i understand. you know i was prescient enough to see that the fed wouldn't move out all but i also said the yankees would do that. but let me get your take on that, forcing the mcdonald's thing on the consumer, he or she is inclined to to do but all price points are not the same and i get that but up to the consumer to keep it going. what if he

the prediction of the federal reserve's policy regarding the increase in interest rates also changed the trend of the gold and silver markets. gold, which had rejected the range of $2,300 per ounce for the first time due to the inflationary policies of the united states and the storage of gold by some central banks, now with the policy change towards increasing the interest rate to control inflation reached its lowest level in the last 3 weeks and decreased by about one and a half percent. with the retreat of gold, silver lost the level of 28 and 9 dollars per ounce and the policy of increasing interest rates reduced the attractiveness of this metal and reached the range of 27 dollars per ounce. unlike other markets , the steel industry not only did not improve, but reached more than 3060 uan per ton. latest customs data. it shows that steel exports outside china increased by more than 25% compared to the previous year in march and reached about 10 million tons. maryam on behalf of sed and sima news agency, thank you for your attention . we will present the news at 19:00 in the next

the federal reserve is only nip tent, becoming even more powerful as we speak, and it's opaque. from jekyll island, that it was designed and works specifically for large banks and ultra-wealthy the folks, and that's one of the reasons people were sort of hoping you would have access to it, because they impact all of our lives. how do you feel about this? we've only got a minute to go, but are you confident about this appeal, and what are you going to do to let the public know that, hey, this is not right and everyone should be offended? >> well, boy, senator pat toomey took the gloves often on the fed and so did anthony scaramucci and your colleagues, and we've had quite a bit of press coverage of this. and, look, we're fighting. the state of wyoming joined us and, unfortunately, the federal judges concluded the federal reserve is more powerful than one of the united states' states. and and so we'll see what, what comes. we don't have an announcement yet, but we are far from done. we are, like i said, on the front lines fighting this debanking by politicized federal bank regulat

you've got a federal reserve trying to rein in inflation, and biden wants to spend more money.sing too few goods? he says he wants to follow the law and have law in the society, and yet he's blowing off the supreme court and wanting to forgive more student loan debt in the face of the supreme court saying, no, this is unconstitutional. so, you know, when e he says trump is a detriment to democracy, i think most people wince and say, no,, actually, what you're doing is at threat to democracy. and you've got your opponent holed up in a manhattan courtroom while you campaign all over the place. >> well, look at the facts -- maria: those are the facts. i'm looking at the facts. >> the fact is that you had legislation agreed on, and what happens? donald trump says, no, don't passes that legislation on border security because it's too good of a political issue for me. maria: no. >> we can't give president biden any wins, and we'll do it and we'll just hold back. so the question is, why do we have congress there? congress needs to do it job, update our laws. the way that we fix the il

it is federal reserve independent.e authorities have the ability to really intervene even if they wanted to? essentially that indicates not so much for that as we heard from mark mobius, the fact that they didn't make a move last week tells you a lot. jonathan: dollar-yen, 151.65. let's check in with your bloomberg brief. yahaira: ubs says it plans to buy back of the $2 million of its shares with up to $1 billion of that total expected to take place this year. the swiss bank confirming the repurchase plan today after having suspended its previous plan a year ago amidst takeover of former violet credit suisse. it expects to complete the merger by the end of the second quarter. meanwhile at citi, more job cuts. a fresh render productions some managing directors and the technology, media and telecom division plus equity capital markets leave the wall street lender. the latest cuts coming of citigroup says it has ramped up the major actions surrounding its reorganization plan which aim to streamline operations by eliminati

let's turn to the federal reserve, day one of the two day meeting for the federal reserve, widely expectedd. we are looking for a hawkish tone from jay powell tomorrow. elsewhere, a people at paramount, shares are lower in the premarket as the company replaced the ceo with the management committee and they will lead the company as they negotiated potential deal with potential individual producer sky dance media. bloomberg intelligence joins us now. the big exclusive, the earnings call, can you describe what happened on the earnings call yesterday afternoon? >> thank you. this was unprecedented, this was the shortest call ever i've seen in the history of media earnings, about eight minutes long. it was bizarre. there was the management committee that spoke briefly then you had the cfo delivering the results. there was absently no question from the analyst community and the investment community so it was really more not what was said but rather what was not said which tells us that a deal is imminent. jonathan: can you talk to us about the so-called management committee, this trio of executi

you say it's the wrong interpretation of what's happening in the federal reserve?t narrative. i think they are saying that it is a bump. bogged is the new transitory. when their telik -- bump is the new transitory. when they're telling us it is not moderating, if you get a couple more months we know that goods inflation is done. if service disinflation doesn't continue to slow down i think that that is where this patient narrative is going to run. jonathan: can i quote you that bump is the new transitory? i think that's brilliant. can you tell me how many bumps are not just a bump and is a problem? what does that look like? priya: i think a couple more. the first one you can ignore come the second one you get nervous. the third one, not to draw a trend with three data points come you start to say ooh, and at the margin people get nervous. the next two months, and then we have an election, so no cuts this year would be a big problem. i think that it is key. a soft landing requires the fed to cut rates. this is why not everyone is on board, but i think with real rate

whether or not the federal reserve will cut interest rates and whether they'll do it this summer ordo it all year. the yield on the 10 year, 4.63%, down 3 and-a-half basis points. the wall street journal reporting even if the fed cuts the days of ultra low rates are over. chris, what are you expecting? >> i think we still expect a little bit of a cut can. people are saying no, pundits are saying maybe no cut is necessary with the commercial debt out there we believe it's necessary. it's a weird market. you can't paint it with one brush stroke. everyone said google is done, no one will google anymore. they're paying a dividend and doing a stock buyback. microsoft is churning along. on the other side of the coin, the cycle with zuckerberg, hate, love, hate, they hate him again because we're in a cycle of big time spending. in general, i think the fed has to do some cutting. i think if we don't do a cut we already saw four or five regional bank failures, the number could be 30, 35, something had has to happen to alleviate the commercial real estate crisis in my opinion. maria: that's a

the federal reserve has a target of 2%.n order for the fed to get to that target they want to lower interest rates. but with an economy that's ripping and roaring the way the report suggests it doesn't give the fed a lot of room to cut interest rates. >> bill: $4 gasoline by the summer is what they're saying. no fed cuts in 2024, would you call me crazy? >> that's exactly one of the federal reserve officials said. i'm pen silk in two rate cuts. there is a chance we'll see no rate cut at all. if that's the case we'll see a stock market sell-off. >> bill: in the meantime a lot of people are predicting we'll see an economic boom on monday. they say the economic impact of this solar eclipse could be $1.6 billion. some people think the contrails could be $6 billion. here is what they're saying. air for more than a billion dollars. hotel close to a billion. what americans are doing for the eclipse. they're buying glasses. you could buy them for $7. how do we go from $7 to 1.6 billion. >> there are a lot of things people are looki

if you look at the federal reserve, june is looking a little bit premature in my opinion. even july might be depending on the data might be a little too soon. i think we will have to wait until q 4-6r7b in the u.s. >> bloomberg's executive editor for asian markets. something to tell you about. we have the japanese bank governor meeting with jerome powell in washington, d.c. to discuss the current situation of the u.s., the chinese economy as well as far as monetary policy and financial stability again. the two, the governor of pboc and jerome powell meeting in washington, d.c. coming up, we'll get eric francia's energy outlook. first, releasing the fourth quarter results. that is coming up next. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take

federal reserve chairman jay powell admits to the lack of progress happening teresa federal reserve target inflation how investors are poised to move admitted the uncertainty. you are watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. stay with us. ♪ ♪ ♪ (luke) this will be a gold mine of local intel. (marci) so, tell us about this corn festival. (stylist) oooh you got your corn pudding... (marci) so...is it safe around here? (stylist) sometimes. [luke gasping] (marci) no eyebrows? (luke) think of how light it'll feel in the summer. we gotta run. eleven thousand more neighborhoods to go! (vo) ding dong! homes-dot-com. if you have wet amd, you never want to lose sight of the things you love. some things should stand the test of time. long lasting eylea hd could significantly improve your vision and can help you go up to 4 months between treatments. if you have an eye infection, eye pain or redness, or allergies to eylea hd, don't use. eye injections like eyla hd may cause eye infection, separation of the retina, or rare but severe swelling of blood vessels in the eye. an increase in eye p

but inflationjumps — dashing hopes of interest rate cuts from the federal reserve.adhg enright. we start with big tech — and what a difference a day makes! this time yesterday, meta — the owner of facebook, instagram and whatsapp — rattled wall street with disappointing forecasts — making it clear that the billions its spending on artificial intelligence could take years to pay off. well, new updates from two more tech giants have calmed those nerves. microsoft — now the world's most valuable company — and alphabet — which owns google — have both seen their profits jump thanks to excitement about the potential of artificial intelligence. let's show you the details. in the three months to the end of march, microsoft made almost $22 billion, that's up 20% on this time last year. and alphabet made more than $23 billion over the same period. that's a jump of 57% on last year. erin delmore has more from new york. among the dozens of companies reporting first—quarter earnings on thursday, alphabet and microsoft alphabet and microsoft took centre stage. both beat expectati

paul volcker, the chairman of the federal reserve board, has been implementing policies that are exactly opposite in basic thrust from what you recommend. he has been squeezing the productive sector of the economy in favor of the speculative sector. now, i mean, frankly, mr. president, there are important sections of the american economy that are about to go under and won't even have an opportunity to benefit from the programs that you're putting forward, because of the federal reserve's policy. i have a two part question. first of all, do you think that objective economic conditions justify the interest rate levels that we now have? and i don't mean for your answer to imply criticism of the fed. it's just objective question. and the second question is, are you concerned that there might be a sabotage, so to speak, of your policies by programs that the federal reserve might be putting forward? no, i'm not concerned that there would be sabotage. i've met with mr. volcker and not with the intention of trying to dictate, because it is an independent agency, and i respect that. but i think t

investors are now trimming their expectations that the federal reserve will cut rates before septembero china now, where the country's biggest auto show has kicked off in beijing, with car makers showing off their latest electric vehicles. china is currently the world's biggest car market and the world's biggest car exporter, and has seen stiff competition over the past year especially amongst domestic players. i spoke to auto analyst bill russo who gave us his outlook for the chinese car market. there is a focus on electrification with the dominance of the chinese companies who now have almost 80% share of the electric segment. that's eaten significantly into the gasoline powered vehicles which are down significantly from a few years ago by more than ten million units. the other important trend is the emergence of these smart device companies that are now present on the landscape. shaomei. big attention given to their product are shown at the show which by far attracted the biggest crowds. and the emergence of a company as both a supplier and manufacturer through contract manufacturer

let's say you name your next federal reserve chair. what is the first question kthat everybody is asking? have you made a secret deal with the president? we're aware his allies are working on a secret deal >> i would say did you have any agreement with the president before hand to consult with him? othe otherwise, you could say i didn't have a secret deal. >> the public will sit around as we are this second and say there is something untoward going on here. >> after what happened to jay powell and all through the first term -- god forbid all through trump's administration, who would want the job given the daily tongue-lashing jay powell got. >> a lot of people would like the job. >> they would be taking it eyes wide open to what to expect from what we saw with the jaw boning on jay powell daily. we already saw how relentless trump was with lower rates as a real estate guy. i don't know there was any scenario and most presidents are like that. they want lower rates. this he they want to have a strong economy. >> this very concept that t

investors are now trimming their expectations that the federal reserve will cut rates before septembern reporting on newsday, us secretary of state is meeting chinese officials on a three—day trip. tensions over economic ties have been a flash point between washington and beijing. antony blinken has called for a level playing field for american companies doing business in china. our business reporter this morning monica millerjoins us live from the newsroom. explain to us what mr blinken means by fair treatment for american companies? yeah, well this is the latest _ american companies? yeah, well this is the latest high _ american companies? yeah, well this is the latest high level - this is the latest high level meeting between washington and beijing, officials. and one of the things he did raise concerns is about some of china's business practices, nonmarket practices as well as manufacturing capacities. 0ne manufacturing capacities. one of the things that washington is toying with is the idea of imposing tariffs on products such as electric vehicles which china makes many many of th

inflation trickierfor the federal reserve.be closely watched as things — as well to see if things are turning around for the economy. then on friday, trade data, this is going to be key to help us understand why manufacturing activity in china has expanded for the first time in six months. priyanka kishore from research company asia decoded said a lot of focus, though, will be on the us. i expect that headline though, will be on the us. i expect that headline inflation in the us will continue to diverse. we have seen rising energy price, that means month on month inflation will remain elevated at a headline level and you could see the headline jump and you could see the headline jump again around 3.4% from 3.2% last month. on the other hand, will be supported declining — declining inflation will be supported by slowing inflation and a decline in used car prices. that actually keeps in place the support for rates from fed even if you know headline inflation remains around 3% over the rest of the year. however, i must add that g

the chair of the federal reserve said policymakers hadn't seen enough progress on inflation since its rapid decline last year. and with inflation likely to take longer to return to the fed's desired target of 2%, a cut in rates, he said, didn't seem justified. we've said at the fomc that we'll need greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% before it would be appropriate to ease policy. you know, we took that cautious approach and, sought that greater confidence so as not to overreact to the string of low inflation readings that we had in the second half of last year. the recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it's likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence. today's remarks highlight the different paths being taken by central banks around the world, with the european central bank's christine lagarde reaffirming that the ecb was still on track to cut rates. many people expect the ecb will cut rates injune. now, the timing of the first rate cut here in the united states this cycle has become a subject

what is your take on the federal reserve? we saw some good numbers on jobs, and a lot of people are questioning whether or not the fed has so much room to cut rates, and the market is expecting three rate cuts this year. >> yeah. i mean, i think it's a coin flip on whether we get one or two rate cuts this year, especially after this jobs report and where energy's sitting. for miss -- us, we're taking this day by day because so much things on where oil prices are because oil prices feed into with everything from the milk that's shipped to your grocery store to plastics and everything else. watching oil, which is up 20% roughly year to date, that's the biggest linchpin of what the fed decides to do. as you know, a lot of that's geomid call -- geopolitical, so i think you have to take this day by day. maria: a great point. in fact, when we were teasing you were coming up, i said this is the one thing that dan niles thinks is most important, and that is oil. so what do you want to do with oil close to $90 a barrel here? that's go

binini's policy of the federal reserve regarding the increase of interest rates also changed the trend of the gold and silver markets. gold, which had rejected the $200 per ounce range for the first time due to the expansionary policies of the united states and the storage of gold by some central banks, has now reached its lowest level in three weeks with the change of policies towards increasing interest rates to control inflation. the recent arrival and a decrease of about one and a half percent. with the withdrawal of gold and silver, the same level as 28 the dollar lost per ounce and the interest rate increase policy also reduced the attractiveness of this metal and reached the range of 27 and a half dollars per ounce. unlike other markets, the steel industry not only did not improve , but reached more than 3060 yuan per ton. the latest customs data shows that steel exports outside of china compared to the previous year in. in march , it increased by more than 25% and reached about 10 million tons. maryam fadaei, sed and sima news agency. end of capital market news, god guard. the

stuart: it was a politicized federal reserve and won't raise rates to be friendly to biden.u agree with that? >> i agree the fed is political, but they're trying to stay out of it. i've long said on this show repeatedly the fed is a political and don't want to get in the way of an election and a rate cut would be helping biden. but if you remember during president trump's tenure, he also requested a rate cut too. it happens on both sides of the aisle. they all want the tail wednesday and it's not going to happen. if you get a cut, it's november or december. stuart: just like trump for leaning on the fed. he did that . lou, hold on a second. in addition to nearly everything else and the price of stamps could be going up again and, lauren, what's the price of first class stamp now and where do they want to move it up to? lauren: 68-cents and increase by a nickel or by about 8% to 73-cents. that would happen in july. i mean, there's been five stamp ibram creases in the past two years and two in the past monarchies. people are going to stop sending christmas cards of kids and gr