eve at the lowest in decades for that day and that's after donald trump lashed out at the federal reserve system the only problem our economy has is the food they don't have a feel for the market they don't understand this is three trade wars or strong dollars or even democrat shutdowns over borders the fed is like a powerful go for who can't school because he has no touch he copilot. following the statement from donald trump rumors started circulating that he might even sack the head of the federal reserve bank jerome powell despite hand-picking him as the chairman a year ago it would require congressional approval to fire mr powell but the news was certainly enough to push down the markets even further and in a bid to reassure investors after one of the worst weeks in a decade the treasury minister made what many are calling emergency phone calls to the head so if the six largest banks we spoke with jeffrey tucker editorial director at the american institute for economic research who thinks in order to avoid a crisis u.s. trade policy among other issues should be significantly changed this is

at the federal reserve system the only problem our economy has is the food they don't have a feel for the market they don't understand this is three trade wars or strong dollars or even democrat shutdowns over borders. following this statement from donald trump and rumors started circulating that he might even sack the head of federal reserve bank sharon powell despite hanna picking him as the chairman a year ago would require congressional approval to fire power but the news was enough to drive the markets further down in a bid to reassure investors after one of the worst weeks in a decade the treasury minister made was calling emergency phone calls to the heads of the six largest banks. jeffrey tucker editorial director of the american institute for economic research things in order to avoid a crisis u.s. trade policy among other issues should be significantly changed this is actually a very bearish sign about our economic prospects in the future and that's why people are talking about a coming recession the economy is still strong on paper if you look at the data is strong but the

the lowest in decades for that day and saw after president donald trump lashed out at the federal reserve system. the only problem our economy has is the food they don't have a feel for the market they don't understand this is three trade wars or strong dollars or even democrat shutdowns over borders well the following statement from donald trump rumors started so elating that he might even stock the head of the federal reserve bank jerome powell despite hand-picking him as the chairman a year ago it would actually require congressional approval to fire mr powell but the news was certainly enough to push the markets down even further and in a bid to reassure investors after one of the worst. in decades the treasury minister made what some are calling emergency phone calls to the heads of the six largest banks. and we spoke to jeffrey tako editorial director at the american institute for economic research you things in order to avoid a crisis u.s. trade policy among other issues should be changed. this is actually a very bearish sign about our economic prospects in the future and that's why peopl

lowest in decades for that day and comes off the president donald trump lashed out at the federal reserve system. the only problem our economy has is the food they don't have a feel for the market they don't understand this is three trade wars or strong dollars or even democrat shutdowns over borders the fed is like a powerful goal for who can't school because he has no touch he coped pot the treasury minister has been reassuring investors after one of the worst weekly fails in u.s. stocks in a decade steve said banks confirmed they had ample liquidity for operations after holding what some are calling an emergency meeting with the country's six largest banks jeffrey tucker editorial director of the american institute for economic research things in order to avoid any crisis u.s. trade policy among other issues should be significantly changed this is actually a very bearish sign about our economic prospects in the future and that's why people are talking about a coming recession the economy is still strong on paper if you look at the data is strong but the job of the stock market is not to read

next year, the federal reserve system will be doing an assessment and review of our existing frameworkseeking input from a wide range of experts and stakeholders. we are going to try to get ways we can refine our framework. vonnie: richard clarida on bloomberg this morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: qualcomm has ruled out any chance it would return to its bid for semiconductors. this is after china opened the door following the g20 talks to looking at qualcomm and xp again. qualcomm revisit the $44 billion deal? >> i think this ship has sailed. qualcomm has commenced a buyback program using cash that had been earmarked for the deal. the dynamics of the semiconductor industry have changed. when qualcomm made the bid two years ago, the semiconductor cycle was on the upswing. now you are not seeing that. there are a lot of concerns about slowing growth across the spectrum of semiconductor components. to make this kind of big bet right now does not add up for qualcomm. vonnie: is there another company that might take up the idea that it might be up for sale or merger? >> that is the que

reporter: the federal reserve's beige book said growth remained modest to moderate but saw some signs of slowing. the beige book collects business anecdotes from around the federal reserve system it said optimism has waned behind that was tariff uncertainty and rising rates and market constraints tariff induced cost increases spread more broadly. tariffs were mentioned 39 times in the beige book, elevated for an issue that didn't exist all that long ago. gains were reported on the higher side of modest, overall prices continue to increase at just a modest pace several districts noted rising freight costs and higher home prices, but falling oil prices the slowdown reported in the beige book backs up those who see the u.s. economy slowing but not as dire as the resentresent- recent u.s. market selloff indicates. this could raise questions for not only 2019 but even in december >>> seema shah is still with us. many analysts are revising down their outlook for growth next year, not just in the u.s. but in the rest of the world what does that mean in terms of how you're thinking about your investment portfolio >> i think the forecasters have gone too far the u.s. will be slowing do

vigilant to safeguard the resilience of the financial system when times are good, also when vulnerabilities may be building. that's why the federal reserve now actively monitors the potential vulnerabilities to the financial system. last week for the first time we released our assessment of the financial stability report, and of want to just say how much i appreciate all the hard work that went into that report from the staff in the division of financial stability. let me just spent a moment talking about the outlook and then i will turn to what that means in terms of how iss financial vulnerabilities and touch briefly on the implications for policy. domestic economic momentum has been strong as evidenced by the labor market with november date in hand, payroll gains have averaged about 170,000 per month over the past three months. that's well above the pace necessary to absorb new entrants into the labor force. they share of the prime age population that is working is close to its precrisis level, and wages have survived over the past year and they are now going around 3%, the highest level since the crisis. these are all welcome develop

that said, next year, the federal reserve system will be doing an assessment and review of our existingrts and stakeholders and we are going to get a sense of ways we can refine our framework. tom: so much of that comes from domestic analysis. every conversation i see is on the global economy. is there a disinflationary impulse out there separate from the fed, separate from america that you have to consider? richard clarida: those have been at work since i first started doing your's show, 20 years ago. globalization can have a .isinflationary impact we are in a world where central banks are focused on keeping inflation away from disinflation. tom: let us go to columbia. 101.re in econ ?hat is a powell put michael mckee says powell put is media language. what does it mean? richard clarida: mike got that right. i do not think of it as a useful way to describe what the current federal reserve is doing. i think the term came about 20 years ago. 3.7%we are focused on is unemployment is pursuing a policy that make sure the economy can sustain this. it is not a useful concept. useful? the dots

remarkable exercise that required involvement in hundreds and hundreds of people throughout the federal reserve system, to conduct those tests. they clearly had to be credible. i think they were credible. there was a commitment that we would force the firms to go out and issue stock and raise capital. if they couldn't do so, the government would inject capital. and many of the firms, the government didn't end up at that point injecting capital. paul krugman: injecting capital means the government buys stocks so the firm has more money that can be lost ahead of hitting the debt holders. janet yellen: that's right. paul krugman: it's a funny phrase. you have federal officials with syringes but it's basically the government buying stock and diluting the existing stock. janet yellen: exactly. but quite a few of the banks were forced to issue stock to the public. they didn't want to do it. it diluted existing shareholders, but that was, i think, april of 2009, and that was a turning point for the financial system, but still, we had 10% unemployment. so this was going to be a long, slow slog to get out of d

we have announced that the federal reserve system will be -- an assessment seeking input from a wideders and experts. still with me on set is laura and michael mckee. i feel like this week is the fed deluge. everything out there so nothing gets caught in the foreground. we don't know what the economy is going to look like in 2019. michael: going into december, that rate hike is baked in. they are not going to disorient the markets. 2019 is going to be data dependent. said today that we don't know by 2019 whether the economy is going to be very different. the tailwinds we have gone from the tax cuts are going to start to fade. we've got 90 days to see what will happen with trade. we don't know what is got to happen with a government shutdown because that is going to be postponed for a couple weeks. a lot of risk factors, not to mention europe and italy. the fed does not know. it was easy to say we are going to raise rates one rates are at zero. now that you are close to neutral, they want to take it step by step. alix: there is a wide divergence on strategist estimates for the s&p nex

understanding what that is telling us here and abroad and finally one of the strengths of the federal reserve systemwe have the 12 federal reserve banks, we as presidents talk regularly to people in businesses who are telling us what's going on today. >> but if you're hearing the message from the market, are you listening? in the sense you that you raised rates on wednesday how do you justify that if you are listening to the market? investors who are putting the money on the line have decided that, a, there's not much inflation concern in my purchases of fixed income bonds, i'm going away from stocks how will do you justify the rate increase if you're listening to the message of the market? >> we're listening but we're looking carefully at the data and talking to business and other leaders in the communities around the country and trying to incorporate that information together to get a view of the economy so right now we have a strong economy, we have 3% growth this year unemployment is near 50 year lows and we expect this economy although having slower growth next year but very solid growth and go

>> i think there's a confused message from the federal reserve system it started in october, got fixednovember and then screwed up pretty badly in december i don't know how easy it will be to come back i thought john williams did a great job with you guys the day after the fed meeting and i think john and rich clarida are probably going to be two guys to clean up the mess a little bit i don't know how long that will take and what we see from jay will matter in the coming months but this was not what the market was expecting, a kind of -- it reeked a little too much of politics and lines in the sand and then to have the president come on afterwards and fight it out, it has people people questioning the force of the d fed. >> because of internal dysfunction or external pressures or what? >> i think it's a mix of the fed taking its independence very serious seriously. and jay showed stubbornness. there was more hue tillty from john williams and that's what the market wants to see. i don't think the economy is hon a precipice like people do but you want to know that the fed is there if it

tom: you worked at the federal reserve system.ss -- effects of a political process. is chairman powell overwhelmed by the politics of the moment? abby: i believe the happiest woman on the planet right now is janet yellen. i have jerome powell who think is doing a solid, credible position andicult one of the things i scratch my head about is the following -- i am not sure mr. trump was the fed as hebone was looking to find somebody to blame it on. if you have a scapegoat, the fed is always good. a lot of people do not understand what it is they do in the fed is not popular popular views, among people who are not into the weeds as we are with regard to economic policy. weeknk the fed was ok this in terms of what they said. i believe that the markets reactions, some would say overreaction, would have been different if not for the rest of the context and the background of what has been going on in washington over the last few weeks. i love the question you posed over whether markets, how queasy they should be about the fundamental out

joining us, we are thrilled to bring you the former chairman of the federal reserve system, alan greenspant, this afternoon. stay with us worldwide. . this is bloomberg ♪ viviana: this is "bloomberg surveillance." a british drugmaker and pfizer have agreed to a joint venture. brands include sense of thine -- sensodine. later, we will speak to the ceo of glaxosmithkleine. tom: there is an an incredible amount of stuff out there right now. rita is with us. with all of the analysis i have about andill talk -- davidd citigroup shepard today in the financial times absolutely kills it with a data laden summary of where we are. i don't think most of the world understands what u.s. oil is doing. u.s. shale juggernaut russia. the u.s. oil production increase in 2018 is roughly equivalent to oil output of iran's to the market in one year. and the united states, is larger than the individual output of 8 of opec's 14 members. how is the u.s. going to drive oil in 2019? are we going back to $30 a barrel? >> if we continue at these kind of levels, the one thing i would add is the 2 million barrels of gr

central banking system the federal reserve as the main source of the problems and it's even compared it to a powerful golfer who can putt there are some though who are blaming the market instability on another source computer technology around eighty five percent of all trade is controlled by programs designed to buy and sell according to market data the algorithms work much faster than humans and can check huge volumes of numbers in seconds financial commentator charlie predicts more people head for wall street . with us now we've got economist and professor richard werner to see what he makes of all this welcome to our see so is it president trump is it the computers what do you see as the main catalyst for all this. well i think we shouldn't think to mention another set of very important players and these are of cause the central banks the central banks have been playing a very important role in this past year two thousand and eighteen but also in fact very visibly for the last ten years since the financial crisis. so in what way is the central banking system to blame or to be doi

what people don't realize is with the federal reserve system, you have an entity that sets -- 6 peopleecide what your interest rate will be and it is like a crime or anything else, you follow the money. i am a libertarian, i will admit it or read it is not controlled and people just don't see the forest through the trees. host: do you see any interest in congress in trying to rein in the fed more? caller: sure. the federal reserve is out of control. i guarantee in five years, you will be able to use dollar bills as toilet paper. they print too much money. host: how do you plan for the future? great financial wizard, but i see the forest through the trees. i have social security and a pension from ups at this point. host: that is tom in missouri. this is tim in arlington heights. says the stock market has had a major impact. go ahead. caller: i retired from the postal service 11 years ago. 2 years ago i put my money -- i still have the thrift savings plan, the 401k and since bush maden two years ago, i $27,000. i think he is pretty good for the stock market. host: andrew, rochester, new

system. federal reserve is the main source of the problems in a tweet even compared it to a powerful golfer who can't part there are some though that are blaming market instability another source computer technology around eighty five percent of all trade is controlled by programs designed to buy and sell according to market data but the algorithms work much faster than humans and can check huge volumes of numbers in seconds financial commentator charlie ball predicts more people head for wall street. the next year is going to bring a crash much worse than two thousand and eight we had a lot of systems are good make based trading and a lot of financial products that were basically made up and systems were enhancing that but then you have the human nature side of markets which which corrects and as it as it should these these bubbles are going to correct again and this is why we're experiencing a dip in the stock market at the moment we've got these artificially inflated stocks all around the world and interest rates have been crazily low the only people who have been benefiting from that is the

but the federal reserve is the backbone, is the bedrock of our financial system. it's set up to be independent. i don't believe blaming the federal reserve for this or that or whoever the president our congressman or senator is, helps matters. the president cannot fire the chairman of the federal reserve, except for cause. i think chairman powell, myself, is doing a good job. >> brennan: all right, senator shelby, thank you for joining us, you have your work cut out for y than >> bnnan: we democratic senaton tester. he's also one of only two moderate democrats to win re re-election in a reliably red state. good morning to you, senator. >> good to be here, margaret, thank you. >> brennan: your colleague, senator shelby said negotiations are at an impasse they need to find out what democrats want and when. as democrat here, what can you explain? >> well, first of all, margaret, i would just say that we passed a bill a couple of weeks ago to keep the governmop house refused to take it up. i think that the fact were at government shu shutdown is nothg short of ridiculo

central banking system the federal reserve as the main source of the problems in fact in a tweet he even compared it to powerful goal from camp but some are blaming the market disability on another source computer technology they're going off another tangent here an eighty five percent of all trade is controlled by programs designed to buy and sell according to market data the algorithms work much faster than humans and can check huge volumes of numbers in seconds we heard from economics professor richard werner about this theory he says central banks are behind the instability. i think mostly we're witnessing the results of this policy of central banks massively expanding their balance sheets creating a whole lot of money and purchasing financial assets and investors realizing that some stage you know there's this game can't go on. in the us the central bank has already over the past year given clear signals that they want to change things and they have tightened and they have reduced their credit creation their money creation and also the signal that most people watch interest rates wh

debt write down i there they they would call it a junk for equity swap it so the federal reserve build out the banking system after two thousand and eight. cents a credit for credit for junk swap and of course the u.s. also did force many european nations to forgive germany's debt after world war two how did that go down and what were the arguments for against it at that time that's a wonderful example to look at because that's that was germany's economic miracle and people think the economic miracle was a free market but what was freed was all of the debts the internal debts were all cancelled except for what employers owed their employees and minimum working balances and it was easy to cancel the debts because most of the debts in germany were owed to the nazis they were the creditors so emerged from world war two and so the allies said we don't want the nazis repaid so we're going to cancel the debts now and i move on because there's another interesting case study here john maynard keynes had argued at versailles that saddling germany with unforgettable debts after world war one would result in a horrible

any president, democrat or republican, to comment on federal reserve because federal reserve is an absolute keystone of the whole global financial system. hope jay powell can explain this to him. we're not that far apart, let's about this. we will not end up much higher on interest rates than we are now. stop talking about our decision-making. upset do that, you will global financial markets, part of what happened this december. everything , i take you are saying and it sounds very smart and sensible, but i of fellow nk a lot investors out there, having watched the way this has gone so rhetoric are saying, david, that is adorable, i don't think the president is going to to the fed chair. so what, sort of press you on this a little bit. outweigh the rewards for a meeting like this? you could have the president say out and essentially i've got an agreement with jay powell he's not going to do more.ng david: that would be damaging, if he did that. have to jay powell will then put out statement saying we have no such agreement. nd the federal reserve will make decisions independently and he doll that. he will assert that independent bernak

bank was also called a troubled institution of long ago by the federal reserve so the pressures very much on doj of bank to get their systems right to be compliant with national regulations and the specially to make sure that there's no money laundering potential inside the institution basically it's clearly the senators are saying through daughter banks operation the u.s. it's a landing page for all the money from everywhere in the word so they want to know whether dacha bank has a good system in place and then that world is trying to clean up its act also restructure. its also trying to merge with combet spunk that's something that we been talking about for a long time now where when's it going to happen. it's a good question i mean for now their stated naim that this is going to happen very soon i think the pressure as though looking at the share price looking at also a change in thinking and. the finance minister of germany was quoted as saying various times that we need one strong to lend and that they're working on it so i guess there is more momentum out of also to enable a more tax efficient structure here and poten

federal republican. there's democrats and republicans over the years that i've been here have tried to influence the fed to do what they thought was best. the strength of our system is that the federal reserveis independent. can make independent judgments. some of them are not politically popular, which is why the politicians way in or say don't do it. >> neil: or right, they can be botching it. very few have orchestrated safe landings. >> exactly. now, as it relates to the economy, very frankly, the economy has been a growing economy now for 90 plus months as you know, which is phenomenal in many respects. both under obama and continued under president trump. but not withstanding that it was growing very rapidly and well, we did a 1.5 trillion stimulus, which i thought was ironic in a growing economy and we didn't pay for that stimulus. so i think it has the possibility of providing for an economy that won't be as steady -- >> neil: why is that stimulus the problem and not the trillions more in spending? >> well, the trillions more in spending is mostly in defense, as you know, and the republicans have been very strong supporters of that spending. that's where we -- >> neil: not exclusivel

federal reserve? >> there is lots of noise in the system i do think the one thing and we spent a lot of time in the reportg on this, the one thing that should not get lost in this is the market has gone a three-year window where the profit cycle accelerated. i'm now it is the beginning of where we are seeing deceleration. that creates all sorts of challenges for what type of stocks are going to lead us through this. timelieve we are in this when the market is repricing leadership. as the profit cycle slows, are takeaway is remain focused on the visible earnings companies, there is noise in the channel but i think that fundamental switch when profit cycles go like this to start to slow, this is a tough time for individuals and markets to adjust. so you're going through that now. do we see pain? afterwards a single we track that went negative in the summer and then later on, the signals has since stabilize and from positive. we think that some of the critical elements like the crown and we were seeing in the blue chips, those readings are now benign. we are also seeing the valuations of the russell 2000 rel

federal reserve and current risk in the financial markets. i think things have improved, but that i think there are .igantic holes in the system the tools that are available to deal with emerging problems are .ot great in the united states leveraged lending which i talked about. i don't think the banking industries have sufficient tools. with that if it is a safety and sound problem for banks, but it is a question of selling risky things into the market that can undermine financial stability, we don't have the set of tools to deal with that. we are seeing pushed back against regulation and to some extent, after eight years of writing thousands of pages of regulation, it should be adjusted around the margins, smaller institutions. but we are seeing more than that happen now. we are entering again only a and erafter the crisis when there is a huge focus on deregulation. i would say there was an agenda of unfinished work. we made some progress. there was a big to do list of things that still need to be worked on. i am not sure we are working on those things in the way we should and there remain holes in those. yellen talksjanet crisishe 2008 fi

federal reserve was created. james was working on editorials on systemic risk eight or nine years ago when we crossed paths and i was working trying to get documents on lot of those issues. it seemed like a pretty good issue for us to tackle. of course, citi isn't the only one that is come close on this matter. there's a couple runners up. you've had chase, jpmorgan chase and its predecessors have had these bits of instability. bank of america and continental illinois came together with their own separate paths back in time with had instability. but i think one reason to track citi was because of the lineages, the lineage back in time was a lot more clear. you have from about 1812 through the 1990s where there wasn't much in the way of mergers. it was mostly just organic growth, so it's an easy path to follow what is an institution is a lot more complicated path to kind of unwind everything. then the last issue i think to mention is that the stories that we found as we dug into citi max history were just perfect for james journalistic storytelling approach. that's not the primary reason we went with it but once

there are a number of worries whether it's the federal reserve removing money from the financial system direction of interest rates, the reduction of the balance sheet, the trade concerns, much to be made about that. even slowing growth around the world. what can you do as you're still chair of the ways and means committee, what could you do? we're talking about tax cuts 2.0 is there anything you can do between now and then to give this economy some balance? >> can i make a point? dagen: yes. >> and this happened from time to time. there's a bit of a disconnect between the stock market and the economy back home. back home and across the country , you know, what's holding our economy back is workers. we don't have enough of them with the right skills, every business i talked to large and small, is leaving economic growth in projects on the table because they cannot find enough workers and i think that's the case throughout the country. i know there are some of these uncertainty issues, but i think back home, and again, main street boy the conference is very high, they're looking for work

a lot of my colleagues have talked about the potential the federal reserve can destabilize when they inject money into the systemsystem. that can have ripple effects and not actually helping the economy. >> is it impacting liquidity from your perspective? selloff,rly around the many seem to be worried about the balance sheet, whereas it had not been an issue before. do you think the fed is draining liquidity from the system? >> we have this huge skyrocketing of the balance sheet over the past 10 years. they own a lot of securities and debt assets. people have been talking about how they should continue that. to theyit is and ought have all that money in assets. a lot of people say they should be unwinding it, whether that is not renewing securities as they reach maturity, or an outright selloff. i think people have been talking about this for a long time and expecting it. i would not that is the cause of the recent downturn in stock prices. there are so many things going on right now. >> does any of the reasoning behind the downturn in stock prices, fed-related, trade-related to white house-related concerns, do

understanding that it's important for customers and for the system that they work most pressing on all of these banks. it was completely absent of the federal reserve please don't leave this room thinking that there is any shred of hope these people are getting, they just don't and i think the book makes that very clear. in terms of updated ethical standards, whether they happen or not i will tell you this anecdote because i think it sort of serves to make the point a few months or it could have been a year before bill buckley re-signed there was a story that was published in which she hadn't disclosed he had a conflict with respect to a family member working at another bank that he hadn't disclosed and i go back to my point it's like a slap on the wrist. it's not a question of there not being ethical rules. these things are common sense. i will tell you this, there are thousands of things in the u.s. into compliance and legal officers. there is no need to have a revolving door. if you are going to go down that path, you can make this a sort of creative power tracks at once you are a regulator you're always a regulator and that it. i can see proble

federal reserve on the other. the federal reserve yesterday clearly indicating that it believes the economy is strong enough to withstand future rate hikes. wall street, it wants to keep the money in the systemt because that really helps advance his economic agenda and help him have some credit for economic growth. and no one really realized how far apart the two sides were until yesterday. up on the floor here, it was a dramatic downward turn as soon as the feds announced its decision to go ahead and raise rates. look, the market is still digesting this news, so who knows where we go from here. one thing is for sure. when the market is confused and uncertain, this particular time it is just going to be pessimistic and assume the worst. there are a couple of warning signs that investors are looking at. they think the federal reserve is ignoring. one of them is a slow down in global growth with disappointing data out of china that is giving investors pause. also some companies are warning of the negative impact of the trade war and tariffs on the bottom line. this is a lot to invest here, but investors are not in a good mood, and we could see the market go down from here. i'm not hearing too

he's recognizing the federal reserve is not just rating interest rates but also pulling liquidity out of the system to the tune of $50 billion a month. there's many things that are buttressing these markets and everything does matter. >> neil: you know, much has been said about whether we're in a bear market, you have to be 20% off of your highs to do that. we're about in the vicinity of 12 or 13% when it comes to the dow and the s&p. you know, maybe in the vicinity of 16 or 17% in the nasdaq. as you reminded me, underneath that, a lot of the issues, the stocks are in bear market territory and then some. does that make you worry that so many of the indians are selling off in the bear market territory, it's a matter of time before the chiefs do? neil, we have to keep things in proper context, if we will. we went through a period of zero interest rates seven or eight years where the fed was a -- accommodative. now we go through this normalization period which has been well-telegraphed by the previous fed and the current fed. so you have a stock market that went from the trading lows, if you want to u

it really is actual hard money that is being pulled out of the financial system by the federal reserve had a conversation with bankers recently saying what would you like to see more, would you want to see the tightening quicken the pace or do you want to see interest rate increases, maybe they don't need to do three rate hikes next year if they're going to be doing this $50 billion unwind every month. dagen: the balance sheet's below $4 trillion. it's fallen below that amount. it's hard to he see the impact but it's popping up. it's whack a mole. maria: we are expecting a rate hike next week when the fed meets. dagen: yes. maria: we will see that rate hike, the fourth this year. >> dagen: right. but wait and see from here on out maybe by the central bank. >> we'll see if we can get out of this historic period of money printing. the fact they've stopped money printing or in europe is going to stop, that's a positive sign. maria: we're watching markets this morning. our top story is china and the trade dispute. the wall street journal is reporting beijing is preparing new policy, promis

i think the end of all of this is the federal reserve will be very, very cautious about allowing this slide that we're in to tern into something systemic i believe the fed will pause monetary policy and stop hiking. i've been on the side of they're going to keep going until they induce a recession they have in wild card event on the table, i think they're going to announce they're going to slow down and any further damage will draw a response >> jon najarian wants to get in for one second but i want to follow up on that. do you think we're going to get no rate hikes in 2019 or the first half, and do you believe they could pause their quantitative tightening as well? >> brian, i would say it's 50/50 that we get a pause in march depending on what happens with the market and the economy, because we are starting to see weakness in the manufacturing sector we got the richmond pmi. i think there's enough uncertainty here the fed can pause just like it did when oil collapsed in 2015. now will they change the balance sheet policy i really believe they've overdone it. i think the pace is double what it should be the fed may realize it would be

system. conversations with retiring members of congress saturday at 8:00 eastern on c-span and c-span and c-span.org and listen with the free c-span radio app. the federal reserve announced it will raise short-term interest rates by another .25 percentage point but the wall street journal ranks that official signaled a milder path of rate increases. we will have the press conference with jerome powell in about 45 minutes. right now house speaker paul ryan gives his farewell speech. he was introduced by congressman trey gowdy of south carolina.

high pressure it will freights a federal reserve which will be forced to react to such and such a trend in the inflation and they mix so the. over the global trading system is one of the key and they get you from bets on the global agenda and the second one is of course on growing the slowdown. of the global economy due to the fundamental reasons i mean and what it covered girls in the united states and the europe structural slowdown. in china and blow all blow up of the unsustainable growth models in countries like. and turkey mr rushton how has your ministry coped with the task of becoming the ministry of the future this is the definition that we heard from you once well it's pretty simple we need to make the seasons now which will impact the future of the country so when you propose ideas and you know me that will be having a long lasting impact so we're in now what ever the. business we're looking at what will be happening within two years three years five years from now what about the idea of russia's national export strategy on the website of your ministry it's been saying since twenty thirty that this strategy is being redeveloped. well the news o