a locality lot will go to the federal treasury. most will go to the federal treasury. but we need to give producing states a fair share. and, again as i've stated, that's for two reasons two very important very basic reasons. first of all those states bear a burden. they have impacts from that production. including environmental impacts. they need funds to deal with those impacts. it's manageable. it's worth doing but there are impacts. secondly maybe even more importantly providing that revenue sharing for producing states host states, is the most important way we'll get more producing states, we'll bet get more host states, we'll -- we'll get more host states, we'll have more american energy. so that's what this is all about. my amendment again it will be amendment number 80. i look forward to a vote on the senate floor soon. it is simple and straightforward. it does several important things. first, it would expedite outer continental shelf lease sales and move forward with a positive o.c.s. lease plan. by expediting leasing and opening up more areas to production we

it's the us federal treasury. the medium exchange of choice, cash for criminals. we actually see these industries are still succeeding in transferring money. i would like to know why ej -- stossel: most cash money is not even in america. hundred dollar bills are overseas. >> hundred dollar bills. the treasury printed $1.2 trillion in cash. most of that is in 100-dollar bills. i don't understand why he's going off the mom and pop down the street, bitcoin which is a fraction of that amount. >> we worry it's cash on steroids. most of them are done in cash. they're small scale. hard to move large amounts of cash overseas. very difficult to put in a bank account. very difficult to pay people a lot of zeros. >> it's just bad law enforcement to go after the medium of exchange. go after the criminals. find a good way to go after the criminals not something innocent people are using as well. >> silk road did allegedly a million dollars -- stossel: they're out of business. >> they were shut down in an old school sting operation. stossel: why blame bitcoin? people did busine

did is interesting that he brings up money-laundering and grows the biggest laundromat is the federal treasuryge of course, -- a choice. john: most dash money is not even in america. the treasury has 1.2 trillion dollars. i understand why he goes after mom-and-pop laundromat down the street as it is just a fraction of that amount. >> but most criminals is very difficult to put into a bank account to pay somebody a lot of money in cash. >> is bad law enforcement. go after the criminals and find a way to catch the criminals not what's innocent people using as well. >> with $1 billion of transactions. john: that is what he was complaining about the silk road was shut down in a sting operation they did that transaction of drugs. john: people did business on the internet. >> because bitcoin and allow people to wire large amounts of money without going through a wire transfer. at. john: i want the government to know everything i spend money on. >> but those who are oppressed every single authoritarian regime does the exact same thing right now to hide it abroad and bitcoin is a way that they can do

it's the us federal treasury. the medium exchange of choice, cash for criminals.ally see these industries are still succeeding in transferring money. i would like to know why ej -- stossel: most cash money is not even in america. hundred dollar bills are overseas. >> hundred dollar bills. the treasury printed $1.2 trillion in cash. most of that is in 100-dollar bills. i don't understand why he's going off the mom and pop down the street, bitcoin which is a fraction of that amount. >> we worry it's cash on steroids. most of them are done in cash. they're small scale. hard to move large amounts of cash overseas. very difficult to put in a bank account. very difficult to pay people a lot of zeros. >> it's just bad law enforcement to go after the medium of exchange. go after the criminals. find a good way to go after the criminals not something innocent people are using as well. >> silk road did allegedly a million dollars -- stossel: they're out of business. >> they were shut down in an old school sting operation. stossel: why blame bitcoin? people did business on th

unlike other central banks, the reserve bank of australia, the ecb doesn't have one distinctive federal treasury security that it can use to monetize and expand the supply reserves. does it go out and buy all 19 of the european union countries right now? if it does, does it buy germany and does it buy greece as disparately as they are rated by the ratings agencies, or do they go out and do something even more extraordinary and buy stocks which is something the bank of japan has already done. do they buy corporate debt? i suspect they will probably demure and probably when it all comes -- when all is said and done will disappoint us. they need to expand and they need to go in and do something dramatic with kwooesing. they just don't have the ability to do it unlike our fed. >> dennis, it's tim. i know the bar is very high. i agree with you. let's assume they disapoint. it's been one of the big macro trades over the last month. does the euro real look at difficult rengsz and even the dax versus the s-and-p. on the side of a weakening euro and stronger dax and having to catch up to bunds. where do

as of september 13, federal employees were delinquent on $3.4 billion in taxes. yep, that's right. 1,500 treasury employees were delinquent owing close to $10 million. now, while in the grand scheme of federal finances this is a very small amount -- i understand that -- it's tremendously galling and sends a terrible message to taxpayers to know that many of these employees were awarded bonuses bonuses -- they were awarded bonuses -- even though they owed back taxes. let me be perfectly clear any employee who deliberately ignores the process and procedures for fulfilling their tax obligations like every other american, must be held accountable. this is a basic principle upon i think we can all agree. when these public employees serve at the i.r.s., their lack of willingness to pay their tax obligations calls into question the integrity of the agency. it's really unconscionable that there are tax delinquents working as tax collectors. it is very clear the i.r.s. is not conducting itself again with integrity and fairness. far from it. the crux of the issue is that neither the congress nor the taxpay

if we don't act to slow down the rate of increase in federal spending, the united states treasury will be legally obligated to spend more than $360 billion in fiscal year 1976. even if no new programs are enacted. these are not matters of conjecture or prediction but simple arithmetic. the size of these numbers and their implications for our everyday life and the health of our economic system are shocking. i submitted to the last congress a list of budget referrals and decisions. there will be more cuts recommended in the budget i will submit. even so, the level of outlays for fiscal year 1976 is still much, much too high. not only is it too high for this year, but the decisions we make now will inevitably have a major and growing impact on expenditure levels in future years. i think this is a very fundamental issue that we, the congress and i, must jointly solve. economic disruptions we and others are experiencing stems in part from the fact that the world price of petroleum has quadrupled in the last year. but in all honesty, we cannot put all of the blame on the oil exporting nation

. >> do you think the federal reserve could start selling treasuries on the balance sheet?ink they will hike rates before the year is out. we think they will be pretty cautious about it. you've got this pretty weak global economic backdrop and the reason they will do rates is because, at least you got a fighting chance of understanding the mechanism. qe, we think we know what the transition mechanism is. raise assets and lower the cost of capital. what you don't know is the speed with which that would turn around. i don't think they are selling assets. >> from a flattening yield curve in the u.s. to an inverted one in greece, i was looking at the greek debt market this week. i saw a blowout of 280 basis points. you can start writing headline greece about to fall off the cliff. here's my question to you. you go back to your desk, sit at your trading desk and say, i want to buy some greek debt. how difficult is it? >> it is very difficult to buy greek debt. as you know, the vast majority of the market is held by official institutions. to get a liquid market, you need to get a

done in seven years for corporation after corporation pays its lobbyists more than it pays the federal treasury. as you look at corporate tax reform, is it important to close loopholes that the same time would make any changes to the statutory rate? >> if you consider just corporate taxes, you should consider revenue neutral approach. quite a few of the proposals we here would go away with sound decelerated appreciation. i'm not sure that will help in terms of capital formation. compare around the world with other countries. the world and does their spirit asks entrepreneurs how to be a status. we are number seven in the world in very close to five other countries in those rankings. >> thank you. mr. reichert. >> thank you, mr. chairman. congratulations again. like my colleagues, i support a robust trade. i come from washington state and i think most everyone knows watching and state is going to microsoft and other large corporations, 40% of the jobs created in washington are a direct result of our strong trade. not only most of the colleagues on this panel agree with the strong trade agenda, b

segregation and the treasury and other federal agencies was unprecedented. and it drove trotter nuts. >> it is in the public domain and they can go to youtube and find opportunities to watch the whole thing. i will show excerpts through the hour. we will talk about after we start it. some slaves shown in demeaning roles in the early part of this movie. [video clip] >> what is the time period? >> before civil war and this is what is known as part one of the movie. the notion here is to show that -- in demeaning roles, but they are a fun-loving bunch of slaves, a kind of harmony about it. and peace and well-being in a way. this is part of looking back to the pre-civil war years that is part of the so-called lost cause and nostalgia for a time that was not so bad really for everybody. >> where was this location? >> in the fictional town of piedmont, south carolina. >> one of the things you notice when you watch the movie is some blacks are actually black people and other are blackface. why the mixture? >> i do not know exactly. the overwhelmingly majority of ac

the federal reserve is ready to buy all the debt the treasury cares to issue china stands ready to buy a bit. i don't know why they are doing it. the point is a mystery to me. >> i can tell you. the president wanted to say something about saving for america in the state of the union. >> you are a hater. >> it was done by -- >> what do you make of the idea? i'm on the other possible list here, this would be a way for young people, in particular who are leery of the market or concerns about the market to invest on the government behalf. >> sure. certainly, we need to encourage retirement savings. this is not the way to do that. this almost sets up young people for failure by investing in low returning investments rather than appreciating the free market. this is -- if this is the obamacare of private retirement savings, it's what we don't need as a vehicle. >> what do you think? >> i couldn't disagree more. this is an opportunity -- >> that's a bit of a -- >> i couldn't disagree more. this is not for half the work force. lower income, young people millenials are going to be a part of the

construction spending dipped in november on fewer new projects from the federal government that pushed the yield on the benchmark treasury note. fell back to 2.1% today. but strong economic data was a big part of the solid gains we saw in the markets in 2015. the big question now is for the new year will the economy and the markets continue to grow? steve liesman takes a look tonight. >> reporter: shoumd find the missing link. surge market and runaway, second quarter of 2014 the best six months of growth in 11 years. but what's been painfully absent is improving fortunes for average americans. many economists think that could change in 2015. >> the wages are going up 2% i think, next year they go up more like 2.5% heading up to 3% in 2016. >> reporter: add to that plunging gasoline prices and a 30% decline in natural gas costs and consumers should have more money in their pockets this year. filling in that missing ingredient of the recovery. and there could be more firsts this year. >> i think sometime around the middle of this year the federal reserve will start rising rates but more important than that the pace is goin

the swiss economically is a small part of the world economy so when the federal reserve, actually the u.s. treasury issues it's report a couple of times a year about foreign exchange market they give the swiss national bank a pass because it's too small to really matter in the global event from the federal reserve and the treasury's point of view. >> it clearly matters to markets. >> often times they come from places that we weren't watching that you didn't think mattered all that much. >> it's is a well established international currency of risk reserve. >> the swiss franc can sink us. >> go ahead. >> it's a very small part of global reserves. this is a important for speculators and some investors but at the end of the day it's more indicative of the pressure of other countries as well with falling oil prices experiencing deflation and disinflation and what it really turns into is very low nominal growth. this is a challenge not only for the swiss national bank but all central banks including the federal reserve we also have low nominal go from the u.s. >> they going to raise interest rates this y

recession and has advised numerous government agencies on the national economic policy including the treasury, federal reserve and the congressional budget office. he received his phd in economics from mit and ava from the university of california berkeley. we want to welcome you doctor hall. we welcome you to the senate finance committee and we thank you for appearing before us today. so please proceed with your opening statement. >> thank you for the opportunity to discuss the u.s. labor market such as a specialty of mine and i will also comment on the international trade improvement and taxation particularly the latter. with respect to the labor market, the labor market is now back to normal. it's not in the doomed state either. it's in between. for example the unemployment rate in and the 5.6% is just below on there than average. employment hasn't grown by its normal amount in the expansion. that is the reason the family incomes haven't grown satisfactorily. they have grown the problem is that it isn't grown and the combination of the two is left with stagnation. to continue on this point with res

treasury? >> the u.s. economy is growing. the federal reserve is expecting to raise interest rates.n addition to the damage from earnings from the oil sector and the mining sectors. >> is there something they should be concerned about? >> at the necessary price to pay -- it is a necessary price to pay. it is inevitable. i think the federal reserve is going to be deterred by some downgrades to corporate earnings. the view is corporate earnings are going to be high enough. >> do you imagine this is going to be the big theme for corporate earnings and 2015? >> the big theme may well be the u.s. struggles a little bit. we're already seeing that. while we see continued downgrades in u.s. corporate earnings, we are seeing improving trends in some of the markets. later in the year we might see some positive u.s. surprises. the reason is it will eventually feed into better growth. >> are you talking about the economy or markets? >> i am talking about markets. i think the markets massively outperformed. it is not going to continue forever. i guess the u.s. is going to take a breather. >> the

. >> has anybody at treasury or-- or the federal reserve or the white house come to you and said, "lookosecutions. some of these organizations are still very fragile, and we don't want to push them over the edge"? >> steve, this department of justice is acting absolutely independently. every decision that's being made by our prosecutors around the country is being made 100% based on the facts of that particular case and the law that we can apply it and there's been absolutely no interference whatsoever. >> the perception-- i mean, it doesn't seem like you're trying. it doesn't seem like you're making an effort that the justice department does not have the will to take on these big wall street banks. >> steve, i get it. i find the excessive risk taking to be offensive. i find the greed that was manifested by certain people to be very upsetting. but because i may have an emotional reaction and i may personally share the same frustration that american people all over the country are feeling, that in and of itself doesn't mean we bring a criminal case. >> if you had said two years ago that

and despite rep -- it is quite likely this summer when the federal, and the available proceeds treasury funds dwindle we may face another debt ceiling standoff. .. borrow money or unthinkably raise taxes. they posit that these options would ha a further consequence. whatever option he chooses will be in direct contradiction to a statute andption he chooses will be in direct contradiction to a statute and would fail to execute a duly enacted law. i attempt to analyze his options under the test prescribed by justice jackson. now, i am sure most people are familiar. but it involved president truman's unilateral seizure of the american steel industry. and justice jackson offered his concurring opinion. for questionable cases of exercise of presidential power. they fluctuate. he offered his famous three zone template. now, the president acts pursuant to explicit or implicit congressional authorization. the president's powers are at there apex. all the powers of article two. in the second so we deal with situations where congress has chosen to remain silent. the distribution of power. in this

down here, that's when the federal reserve sent a note to the treasury and to the congress saying the housing market is the most important thing for us to support. what happened over the next year? you had this major rip in 2012. then, you had a year of going nowhere. where people have placed bets, both sides of it, the things are going to fall apart if rates go up. but now we're starting to break out. you have two tail winds, and these lines are important as they say. the longer the line, the longer the time, the more important the line. i think if you have a breakout here in the itb, what you're getting, that could be the trade of 2015. >> i'm going to draw on two technicians. the longer in base, the higher in space. and also carter braxton stood at that very smart board, b.k. and said itb was ready for breakout this year. >> smart guy. >> guy? >> no triple tops. b.k. has a chart in front of him. levels we banged up against early 2013, early 2014. the fact that we're here closed basically on the high leads me to believe that b.k.'s probably spot on. love it, by the way. >> who doesn

the treasury has a little known bank the federal financing bank. it has financed solar projects. the us postal service. housing programs. less than 1% interest rates. and unlimited financing. it's tesla. it's google. it's morgan stanley. they come in with their projects and get this money backed by us taxpayers. and i'll tell you something, neil another issue here. when the federal government weighs so deeply into the credit market and takes funding out, that's money that could have gone toward good projects. neil: the author is talking about, that does make sense whether you accept the premise or not, you have to prioritize. our government does not. >> we are talking about expanding it. we're talking about public buildings now. infrastructure, we've been hearing that. this is not like the export/import bank. all these things need to be thrown out the door. >> do you know how many empty federal office buildings there are across the united states? neil: it's ridiculous. >> it's who we lend to the money to. are they creditworthy? will we get paid back? neil: just because he cries t

withdrawing from consideration for that post, he has taken a job as counselor to treasury secretary jack lew. and a federal judge has struck down south dakota's ban on same-sex marriage. judge karen schreier ruled the ban "deprives same-sex citizens of a fundamental right," but she placed the ruling on hold pending an appeal. same-sex marriage is currently legal in 36 states and and washington, d.c. and those are some of the headlines, this is democracy now!, democracynow.org, the war and peace report. i'm amy goodman and aaron mate. >> welcome to all our listeners and viewers from around the country and around the world. as we continue to cover the fallout from last week's attacks in paris, we turn now to look at the growing field of so-called terrorism experts. >> with me is nbc news terrorism analyst evan kohlmann. >> that exists in print society between muslims and non-muslims are far more severe than in the united states. >> lie from paris, he is the author of "the islamic state." >> the landscape of jihad is an and terrorism is deeply changing and proving to be a much harder task than it used to be f

alexander hamilton later secretary of the treasury converted this episode into a thread of federal government and the dangers of the modern mutiny and demanded that if a federal capital was to be created that the government, the congress must have exclusive authority on its turf which basically meant that people would be subject to congress and couldn't vote in things like that. so this was realized in the constitution which gives congress the exclusive authority for this matter. in 1790 the president had the right to look into the city and he did so 11 miles upstream from his plantation in mt. vernon and the next year in 1791 peter charles l'enfant presents his famous survey map of the city. the roads are laid out in radio fashion similar to imperial france and at the same time there are plans for parks and fountains and gardens and everything else everything you can imagine that a modern lovely city would have. but this never realized ultimately for reasons that will be described but it creates a pretty good effect. as a symbol of what has become l'enfant inspired not soon after he presents

billion dollars by monday earnizing the treasury department expanding innovative programs for our citizens and protecting interests. he was a subject of a federal investigation and wolf released another statement saying they were not aware of the investigation when they released a statement about him resigning. >> that's why in the right way at the right time i will be making comments but not right now. thank you very much, seriously. >> in his resignation later, his last day will be on february 12th but he noted he did not have a job lined up. nbc 10 news. >> and with the weather now you may be seeing flurries. this is how it looked a short time ago. >> flakes fell in ardmore and montgomery county too. nothing sticking to the ground here. >> let's get the latest from sheena parveen. >> yeah at this point it looks like we could have a chance for a few light snow showers early tomorrow morning. we're still tracking very light snow right now across the area. even into the trenton area and this continues into much of north new jersey. also in the philadelphia area delaware county and parts of new jersey. but again, this is very light snow. however

majority leader mitch mcconnell, it is quite likely that this summer when the federal -- when the available proceeds, when the treasury's funds dwindle we may face another debt ceiling standoff. to date, the seminal academic analysis of the standoffs was provided in an article in the connecticut law review to my professors neil buchanan and michael dorf, who i should point out have been very helpful in my own research. they refer to the situation as an incipient constitutional crisis. they refer to as the trilemma. and basically if the debt ceiling is ever, if the debt ceiling is ever breached, the president will be forced to choose between three options all of which would be directly contradicted by the statute. he will be forced to either unilaterally cancel federal programs, borrow money in excess of the debt ceiling, or unthinkably, raise taxes beyond the levels prescribed in the internal revenue code. and the professors posit that any of these would have a further consequence, that the president would be forced to violate the constitution because whatever option he chooses will be in direct contradiction to statute

. >> he >> he goes to the white house directed down the block to the treasury department and be told to make good. >> or a federal penitentiary. gentlemen, stay with us. we're going to talk to you about 2016 a little later in the show. >>> right now disturbing new evidence that isis is already planning to create the next generation of terrorists. now recruiting young mothers teaching them how to raise jihad i did babies. and katherine joins us live with the details. good morning katherine. >> thank you, judge. in the latest chapter of its recruitment drive i.c.e. sis targeting young -- isis is targeting young mothers. this toddler is the youngest recruit, can't be independently verified, but analysts say it's more evidence isis is taking the long view and understands it'll take at least a generation to reach their goal. >> it encourages the use of violent imagery to desensitize children to this jihad and opens them up to the idea of playing with guns and going after the non-believer as a valid target for the jihads. >> according to the middle east media research institute or memory, a sister's role in jihad recom

can i have the chart from the federal register police your agency frankly along with treasury, the fed fdic, sec, and had i know like most charts it is somewhat difficult to read but on the horizontal axis, loan-to-value axis loan-to-value ratio. on the vertical axis is default rate's command to the far right-hand corner you see a precipitous rise in default rate when you go from 90 percent loan to value and particularly an incredible slope from 95% as we reach no down payment whatsoever. again, this is information that is coming from your agency along with just about every other provincial banking and housing regulator. so doesn't that seem to indicate that again at 3% down 3 percent down payment not only is not too good for the taxpayer you are once again putting people into homes that they cannot afford to keep. i have always believed you cannot make a loan to somebody who cannot afford to repay it. this is data from your agency and others. why is a sustainable? >> i have not changed my position, and i want to assure this committee that i have not changed my position. you should nev

he goes to the white house he should be directed down the block to the treasury department and told to make good on -- >> or a federal penitentiary. gentlemen, stay with us. we're going the talk to you about 2016 a little later in the show. >>> but right >>> but right now isis is planning to create the next generation of terrorists. now recruiting young mothers teaching them how to raise jihaddy babies. and. >>> and >>> and katherine harris joins us live with the detail. good evening. >> thank you judge. isis is targeting young mother to groom these so-called jihadi babies. analysts say analysts say it's more evident isis is taking the long view and understands it will take at least a generation to reach their goals. >> it encourages the use of violent imagery to desensitize children to this jihad and opens them up to the idea of playing with guns and going after the nonbeliever as a valid target for the jihad. >> according to the middle east media research institute or memory, a manual recommends that martial arts. isis outreach to women goes well beyond child rearing to hair and beauty tips, even recipes to make th

focal point of the opposition in the first congress to secretary of the treasury alexander hamilton's plan for the states, for the federal government to assume the death of the states. hamilton realized this will get every state off to a good footing. would restore the credit of the states. it would cement the union and tie the union together. well, the southern states had more or less paid off the bill. the northern states more or less had not. the southern states wanted to know why they should pay twice for their war debts when they had been frugal and in their opinion worked hard to pay down the debt. the northern states said if you won't come to our aid, what's the point of being in the union with you at all. people were talking about recession. a bout of influenza hit washington, d.c., nearly killed george washington, a precarious time for the country. thomas jefferson runs into alexander hamilton, well-dressed, clean shaven. looking none of those things in front of his house. jefferson said, what's wrong. he said my report to the public credit is going to fail. and what thomas jefferson did was brokered a deal over

case in point. 1966, united states treasury secretary joseph barr, he had 155 high income households paid zero federal. members of congress, they were receiving more letters about the 155 than the vietnam war. what happened? of course, you know what happened. a new tax was created that became the alternative minimum tax. this tax has been amended a whole bunch of times in recent years. to give you an example of how insidious this became. remember the number one 55. a couple years it would hit millions of people. four and a half million people mostly middle class earners will be hit by this tax that was supposed to real in 155 people. now, president obama wants to go after the iras because there are 300 super wealthy people like mitt romney. they have more than $25 million in the retirement program. to make it fair, ultimately it will be capped $3.4 million. you should be able to live off $2 million annually. how about the irony of it all? go back to 1966. those wealthy families earned 200,000. a family in new york city would barely make ends meet. hillary, a lot of irony here. a lot of moving parts is

. >>> the federal government's 2015 budget deficit will fall to its lowest level since president obama took office. the deficit for the u.s. treasuryfall slightly to $468 billion this year. that is according to the nonpartisan congressional budget office annual budget outlook for 2015. >>> the death toll from faulty general motors ignition switches has been raised. at least 50 people have died in crashes involving those gm switches. with only four days left before the deadline, more than 300 death claims have been made. claims are being accepted until january 31st. >>> and it's reported that the government has been secretly spying on millions of cars in the united states. "the wall street journal" says the justice department has been gathering and storing hundreds of millions of records about drivers' vehicles. the program run by the drug enforcement administration is intended to seize automobiles, money and other assets from drug traffickers. anne-marie? >> jill wagner at the new york stock exchange, thanks a lot, jill. >>> straight ahead in sports now, an angry new england patriots owner lashes out at the nfl and the media. i fou

treasuries in the u.s. with the ten year falling precipitously, this is a flight to quality. is that wasted money knowing that the retail sales number was so bad, the federal reserve will jump in and stay there, and will not tighten rates, so stocks are the best place to be? >> i wouldn't say that, liz, treasuries, as much as i think are much higher in yields toward the end of the year, i don't think this move is over yet. i think you're going to see new records set, record lows in long bonds, might get to 2.25 or 2%. ten years can get to 1.5. as much as i think it's money poorly spent, that's the direction we're going. >> 1.8% for the ten year. you say 1 1/2 might be it. stay in the bonds, japan, 0% yield for the . >> mortgage debt growing, that came down, but it's going up, and assumed debt. everyone is going to pay their bills. out from the gas tank, into the debt financing. >> okay, well, i'll tell you something that happened overnight. david wilson was watching it, we have him on the phone from london, citigroup's director of metal and research industry. you look up and copper is falling more than 5%, david, aggressive selling by what, china funds? >>

we see this when people buy treasuries long-term treasure treasuries, which the federal reserve usede normality, but it's not happening. people are wondering why. put all that together, stock investors like it. we're going to get another rally. several days in a row of triple-digit moves. volatility is back in the stock market. the federal reserve is no longer so involved in the markets. >> that's a good way of putting it. >> it makes absolutely no sense. why are oil prices down? >>my michelle? >> so right now, roughly the world is producing about 90 million barrels per day. and we are roughly consuming about 89 million barrels a day. so we have a million barrel per se surplus. china isn't as strong as we thought. here in the united states we're not driving as much. we have more fuel efficient cars. and there's a real trend away from the use of oil. and we are huge producers now in the united states in a way that nobody ever expected. we're now one of the biggest crude producers in the world. that's happened in a space under five years. it's been an incredible transformation because

as you know, interest payments on treasury debt have been low the last several years. as a consequence, even though federal debt is historically high relative to the size of the economy, interest payments by the government have been quite low. so interest payments this year, 2015, we project will be 2020 $7 billion, 1.3% of gdp -- $227 billion, 1.3% of gdp. but we expect that interest rates will move up and as the treasury needs to finance new deficits and rollover the existing debt, the interest rate it pays all the outstanding debt will rise. -- on the outstanding debt will rise. with that as high as it is, interest payments will rise significantly. interest payments that this year will be tortured $27 billion will be a hundred $27 billion -- $227 billion will be $847 billion in 2020. as for wage growth, compensation growth since the recession has been a good deal lower than it was before the recession. those of measures of compensation growth picked up last year -- although some measures of compensation growth picked up last year, they remain below. that is a consequence of the slack in the labor market

majority leader mitch mcconnell, it is quite likely that this summer when the federal -- when the available proceeds, when the treasury's funds dwindle we may face another debt ceiling standoff. today the seminal academic analysis of the standoffs was provided in an article in the connecticut law review to my professors neil buchanan and michael dorf, who i should point out have been very helpful in my own research. they refer to the situation as an incipient constitutional crisis. they refer to as the trilemma. and basically if the debt ceiling is ever, if the debt ceiling is ever breached, the president will be forced to choose between three options all of which would be directly contradicted by the statute. he will be forced to either unilaterally cancel federal programs, borrow money in excess of the debt ceiling, or unthinkably, raise taxes beyond the levels prescribed in the internal revenue code. and the professors posit that any of these would have a further consequence, that the president would be forced to violate the constitution because whatever option he chooses will be intrinsic contradiction to statute an