the market needs now more than ever guidance from the feds.and i think in the back drop of the confusion from the march meeting she simply wanted everybody on the same page to make sure a unified message was conveyed to the market, that message being a very dovish message. >> all right, lindsey, thank you for translating it for us. >>> and despite the gains, a weaker than expected report out on wholesale inventories prompted j.p. morgan chase to lower its forecast for first quarter overall economic growth from 1 and a half percent to 1%. but the bank did raise its outcome for the second quarter, which we're in right now by the way from 2 and a half percent to 3 and a half percent growth. >>> and there is still a lot of work to do to get the american economy where it needs to be. >> we took tough decisions, you know six years ago. and we stuck with them. we have our economy growing. we reformed our financial situation. we have our fiscal house in a much better place, and by world standards we're doing better. as long as there are millions of am

what did they hear from the fed? >> the markets are already looking forward to the june fomc meeting. there will be a lot more information. are at thatwhere we point. we will have a couple months of not only acceleration of growth out of the winter slowdown. we will have a better slow down of what is going on in the housing market. from what i recall of what peter mc's assessmentfo was that housing recovery remains slow. that is notable. normally ring is the selling season and you expect a bomb -- normally spring is the selling season and you expect a bump. >> michael mckee, is that what they have been talking about? the winter drag. >> that is what we do not know in the housing market. the housing market has slowed more than people thought. there were a lot of optimists going into the spring selling season. one of those things in the markets, i reckon speech us -- ira can speak to this. mye speculation that fed cutback less on mortgage bond buying because they want to simulate the housing market. we have not seen mo

to say the fed is transparent, yeah, that's right, to say what the fed is doing what it's doing. missed the crisis in formation. >> completely. they missed sub prime. >> and the money -- and the certainty that we're looking for has got to come from not only investors but has to come from ceos. those are the guys that put the money on the table every single day to bring jobs to america. >> their confidence is improving. >> well, it is improving but 0.1% growth is hardly -- that's not hardly good. >> oh, come on. that's an aberration. let's call it what it is. >> aberration or not. >> i don't know about you guys, the economy came to a grinding halt as far as exports go, 100% of the great lakes frozen over. can you not ship anything out of the northwest. >> let's face it. >> all weather-related. >> all weather-related. >> we're going to see some big snap-back numbers starting with friday's unemployment number, by the way. >> i have to interrupt here because for so many years now we've all been talking about the second half recovery. what second half? if you look at the earnings seas

the new york fed president.he end of the year we will be entering six to nine month window, that is a reasonable baseline assessment. >> i think that is when it becomes a real challenge for the financial markets because by the end of this year the fed is getting engaged in this debate and we saw what happened last year when the fed got engaged with the debate on tapering. it can be very tumultuous. liz: how will they make sure the market isn't taken by surprise any way or form? >> they have to call it as they see it. the economy is doing better, they're going to have to call it, basically. >> i think the economy already is doing better. that continues. the way the fed is going to anchor the treasury curve is by reputation. it really say we will raise rates, it will be slow, we will stop off. liz: well into 2015 in the form of reverse repo. thank you so much. great discussions. >> we have to see how that debate comes in. liz: we really appreciate your insights, thanks to both of you. the closing bell in 15 minute

the stock market hearts the fed.omeback from the recent selloff after the fed minutes were released about an hour ago. don't fight the fed, i don't know. >> we had to declare what we were fighting, right? this was the fed meeting where afterwards janet yellen came out and when pressed

peter: the fed actually held two meetings in march. fatah members wanted to drill down into how they wanted to change the so-called forward guidance on when they might begin to raise short-term interest rates. in addition to the righ regular meeting in mid-march, they held a conference meeting on march 4 and the minutes show a lot of debate. some arguing hard to keep quantitative guidelines, numbers feeling a commitment to low interest rate is the fed did not hit the unemployment or inflation target, but as you know they ended up deciding to drop the quantitative guidance in favor of qualitative guidance with general descriptions of economic conditions that could trigger rising rates. the take away seems to be this was more dovish, less hawkish. liz: i find a meeting very interesting. very reminiscent of what we saw during the financial crash and the concerns with the secret meetings. tell our viewers what was discussed. >> whenever they have a major, major policy item on the agenda like changing the forward guidance it is not unusual

more on the latest fed minutes coming up.he executive vice president and portfolio manager at bonds giant inco will join me coming up about 25 minutes right here on "bottom line." let's turn our focus to the architect of the biggest municipal bankruptcy in u.s. history. detroit's emergency manager says the city may be able to conclude its record bankruptcy by october, which would be less than 18 months after seeking .rotection from its creditors kevyn orr joins me. let's get right to it. the city of detroit agreed to million bonde $388 holders are owed. will it be enough to encourage other creditors? >> i know some people say they were supposed to get 15% under our plan, but as we have always said, the plan is dynamic. this represents a big movement for them over what is a plan.ted we certainly hope this spurs some of our other groups to come in and make deals. we are open for business. we hope to make plans so we can preserve the grand bargain that was orchestrated by the chief judge. >> if the remainder of the balance will

there is a fed meeting this afternoon, slack is the word of the moment for fed economics. chair yellen used the word 14 times in her recent speech at the economic club of new york. others say stagnation. any economist at brown university. his situation was with a guy named krugman, bernanke, michael woodford. i don't know anyone who had a trial by fire like you did against those three heavyweight. how do you define stagnation and slot? >> the question up until now has -- this mightsing drag on for longer. indeed it may. that is a lot of possibility. >> you studied with michael woodward when heated interest no one reads it but everyone loves it. as any modern economics and woodford's book or krugman's book? are we on original territory? >> do you mean the current situation we are facing now? >> is it a textbook meeting the fed has today or are they on original ground? >> if we find ourselves in the situation for much longer it might pose challenges we did not anticipate in the book of .oodford in 2003 we have some answers during that time with japan. there were certainly so

. >> the fed continues to taper, the fed continues to taper, cutting its bond purchases by another $10 billion a month as expected. the policy statement is almost identical to the last one in march except for the economic analysis which is somewhat upbeat. quote, information received since the federal open market committee met in march indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions. labor market indicators were mixed but on balance, showed further improvement. the unemployment rate however remains elevated. household spending appears to be rising more quickly. business fixed investment edged down while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. of the fiscal policy is restraining economic growth although the extent of restraint is diminishing. inflation has been running below the committee's longer-run objective but longer run inflation expectations have remained stable. the rest of the statement is almost identical to the statement in march. i will skip ahead. the fed c

we are getting fed minutes later on that will hopefully give us an insight into fed policy.ok at some of the carmakers. that is what we are watching out for. cutitalian prime minister the government forecast for economic growth late last night. he renewed the promise for benefits for civil servants. we are also watching pound-dollar. we have a fascinating conversation coming up on "the pulse". treasuryexander of the in the u.k. it seems the treasury is doing great at the moment, the imf saying it is one of the strongest within the g-8. guy johnson and i are back with coming up next. you can follow me on twitter in the meantime. i will see you in a couple of minutes. ♪ >> toyota slaps on the brakes. safety fears forces it to make one of the biggest recalls in history. meets hisnt putin government to discuss stopping the ukraine's gas supply. >> and angela merkel says europe's debt crisis is not over yet. ised on the fear that greece expected to announce his return to the bond market. ♪ >> good morning, everybody. you are watching "the pulse". we are live from bloomberg's head

changes to fed policy?going to make adjustments as necessary, do what they need to do. no question. when we talk about inflation, inflation that has impact on us is when we start to see wage inflation. we have not seen that at all in the least bit or many years. not think that want any impact on what the fed decides. we do have some commodities that went up, but commodities go up and down. off itss still recent highs. you cannot state a whole lot in the inflation numbers because of the supply and demand and the changes of the nymex of the of demand market -- an individual markets. >> forecast sales came in just ahead of $10 million. good news former is a meyer, the stock is trading slightly higher in after-hours. one thing is very interesting that they have now given us an insight into what is going on with mobile. that is something that investors have been getting very impatient waiting to see what is going on with their mobile this is the best is the cut so much success delivering revenue through mobile g

she tried to outline how the fed thinks bout things because the fed dropped that 6.5% threshold at that meeting. and did not replace it with anything. there was confusion about the charts and whether they meant anything. she said, never mind all that. what we're looking at are the gaps between what we expect full employment be, which is somewhere in the high 5% range to six percent range and inflation, which is our target goal of 2%. as long as those gaps are white, we will stay on the job and key policy easy. >> michael mckee, thank you. other news today, the annual new york auto show kicks off today. car makers around the world gather to show off their latest models. that is where my colleague, matt miller will be camped out all day. talking to the biggest names in the history. what is most interesting? >> as far as cars, i think the editionyce ghost second , you should have one of those. i may pick one up on my way out and drop it off before i head back home. the interesting thing that people are talking about, a couple of things. gm recalls are front and center. rapected after mary

they have a lower fed funds rate than the fed itself projects. >> but are you buying what the fed is selling? i don't mean literally. you know what i'm talking about. >> what makes you think it's wrong? >> i think they're trying to talk down long-term rates, but as the unemployment rate goes down, we'll have asset bubbles. >> you just put your finger on the biggest most important question, are we in a place right now where david is right, where wage inflation picks up. once you figure that out, how long will janelle yellen and how high will she let wage inflation run? my guess is she's going to let it run longer than david kelly believes it will. it will be an epic decision she's going to have to make. >> hold on, let's goodic to anika, has the unfortunate privilege of not sitting around the table and getting yelled at. >> our fortunate privilege. >> but it makes it seems like janet yellen can control that inflation. >> no, no, that's not what i'm saying. >> do you think she has that power? >> well, you know, we got the eci number today, and we saw hardly any wage inflation. so i thi

meeting. >> not with the fed meeting. nicole, you stand on that floor every single day. fed meetings tend to crystallize what traders are waiting to hear about and they start trading right after. what do you expect? >> before, after, they wait on, hang on every single word, liz. on one hand everybody is so tired of fed speak, they know the economy is not a great story. housing picture goes back and forth. honestly they hang on every single word the fed says. that provide clarity. that is what everybody looks for very closely. i see ted weisberg over my shoulder? you spy ted? david: he is talking to the australians. >> sky news sister station. david: right, exactly. he said he will be finished with the aussies by the time we want him thursday or friday. mark, one thing that the fed is going to do, vanely i assume will have impact on markets. that is when they stop buying bonds. they're eventually going to do it, they say sometime this year. what happens to the market when they stop buying. >> effectively it is raising inte

do not fight the fed. last week, as you told us, we heard the most dovish speech i think i've ever heard and today the fed actually came out and said that they are making a mistake in the way they actually handled the fact that they will start raising rates a lot, i guess, they said they would raise them sooner rather than later and they were wrong, so all of that tells me that easy money is here for a lock, long time, and if that is the case, then companies will continue to make money, this earnings season is going to be right there, and i agree 100%. i think just about anything that you throw a dart at over the course of the next six months will be a winner. >> rick, rates moved pretty swiftly on the minutes? >> well, they did and they didn't, okay? i mean, if we want a real read on what's going on, consider the following charts as i'm talking. can you look at the intraday 5s, the 10s and 30s, definitely steepening but anyone watching the santelli exchange should realize that's the only permutation that

the fed chief's reassuring speech boosted the idea. the dow soared 162, the nasdaq jumped 52, the s&p added 15 points. >>> and now more on that speech by janet yellen, in a major address in new york yellen said interest rates will stay extremely low for a considerable amount of time. she said they're trying to thread the needle, that is getting inflation up closer to the target of 2% and get unemployment down closer to its target of full employment, between 5 and 6%. that, she believes, could take a couple of years and will acquire a generally accommodative monetary policy. >> good evening, new fed chair janet yellen in a major speech today before economists in new york, suggesting it could take two years before the economy meets the goals. >> it is a far sign on how far the economy has come, the return to full employment is for the first time since the crisis in the medium term outlooks of many forecasters. it is a reminder of how far we have to go that the long-awaited outcome is projected to be more than two years away. >> the fed s

fed tapering today, richard fisher says the fed forward guidance must be limited.laming operational regions, mcdonald's suspends its restaurants in crimea. >>> citibank's ceo says he believes high frequently trading dispense an unfair advantage. speaking to reporters at the an mull meeting, the curb from u.s. regulators. he says what we are trying to do is run a market where everyone is on an even footing. td is canada's second bank but has a large presence in the united states. high frequency trading makes up more than half of its volume that accounts for a smaller portion of the market. now let's get back out to lake como. >> high frequently trading and the concerns that investors have about this. talking about the financial trust index, right now in the financial system, this is just another blow, isn't it? >> we look at participants. if we look at the volumes in the equity markets to the financial crisis, there's a fraction of that. you said that the u.s. was deteriorating. run by corrupt appreciate politicians. where are we on from that quote? we are talking a

that fed ex hit a tour bus with students. the crash happen just after 5:30 this evening on i5 near orland. about 20 miles west of chico. both the bus and the fed ex truck that hit it burst into flames. patti lee has been following the breaking news, she's in our newsroom with information. >> reporter: right now that section of i5 is shut down in both tkráebg. we know a fed ex semi collided with a charter bus headed north filled with high school seniors. these are pictures just in to channel 2 in the last hour showing the verity srer -- showing the severity of the crash. you can see teenagers helping each other off the bus. some struggling to bus, others covered in blood. , but these were the lucky ones. the 18-year-old from palm desert who called her family to let them know she survived the crash but didn't know where she was being taken. here's what we know from passengers on the bus. most were students from the southern california area on the way to visit humble state university for the school's spring preview day. the scho

the fed is looking past this.e confident, trading in their own forecast for what the fed is going to do. the reaction has been strongest with the five-year note, what they call the valley of the curve, which would cover the period in which the fed will start tightening. people are backing off in their assurance that the fed will start acting in that time. one central bank has been affected, the european central less likelyseems the fed will tighten, and the euro is strengthening, and that is bad news for mario draghi and company because this inflation stays on track, their economy might grow more slowly. >> what do you think, mario gabelli? >> the jobs report is an element in the total mosaic. improvements will occur. the private sector is improving. this morning, for example, class a truck orders are coming in attic celebrated rate. there are a lot of dots to connect. comment --, april, may, we will get past the weather. >> given the fact that the fed has said we will do away with engine marketing the policy -- ,

>> it should be the view of the fed.ou just mentioned a whole bunch of fed members, holding completely different views. >> it's hard to push the consensual view, that's the point, isn't it? therefore you do need the minutes to know what the range of views are. >> except they're heavily cooked. it's not a transcript. >> it's not a transcript, unlike the bank of england. >> exactly. it's not a transcript. it's a managed document to give some kind of view across. you don't get the sense of how deep the defense is. it's a difficult document to read. most of it is pretty dull. there's the talk at the end about fed action, what they discussed, what they thought was right or wrong about a statement. are they feeling more hawkish or are they not very good at forecasting, so a couple more pushed up this time. >> it was six months, rates are up six months at the end of qe. we're not really going to know that until six months after -- well, at least until qe is finished. >> you might know it in april of next year. one way you can r

and at the margin, the fed moves market a lot.hen the fed starts selling, when it goes the other way, you could see a major movement in long-term rates. then you will see at love traders try to get out real fast and they may get out -- liz: don't you think that janet yellen, that's the last thing she wants to do is see any kind of shock for the markets? therefore they will very, very in detailed way telegraph the message to the markets well before it happens? >> well they tried that in the past. the history is not so good about that i mean, in the past when they have started moving, rates have moved faster than they intended for them to move. i mean the fed's not been very good at economic forecasting. it usually reacts after the fact. it almost always reacts after the fact when you have significant changes. david: well we have significant change in the wrong direction as far as growth is concerned, much less than we thought it was going to be. how about if we have more of this, a continued slowdown or if we go into negative their

can the fed accomplish both goals? is it possible for the federal reserve to benefit everybody, right? >> i don't think the federal reserve is benefiting anybody anymore. it would be like giving me a city map of d.c. and i live in chicago. i'm sorry, i think it's outlived its usefulness. the taylor rule dictates about a 1.25 rates and keeping rates too low will have negative consequences. >> rick santelli, good discussion. thanks very much. appreciate it. >>> on deck, yahoo surging. as the clock ticks towards that big ali baba ipo, could this be the perfect time to sell yahoo? >> the biotechs have been taking a beaten. could a bound-back be around the corner. >>> first there, smarty-pants melissa lee, can you guess -- this is the mystery chart, this is the top performing biotech. it's up about 13%. i do not believe we told you prior. >> no, you did not. >> so let us know. hit up melissa on twitter. guess. we're back after this. for what reality teaches you... firsthand. s.ce. in the face of danger, and under the most d

that fed ex hit a tour bus with students. the crash happen just after 5:30 this evening on i5 near orland. about 20 miles west of chico. both the bus and the fed ex truck that hit it burst into flames. patti lee has been following the breaking news, she's in our newsroom with information. >> reporter: right now that section of i5 is shut down in both tkráebg. we know a fed ex semi collided with a charter bus headed north filled with high school seniors. these are pictures just in to channel 2 in the last hour showing the verity srer -- showing the severity of the crash. you can see teenagers helping each other off the bus. some struggling to bus, others covered in blood. , but these were the lucky ones. the 18-year-old from palm desert who called her family to let them know she survived the crash but didn't know where she was being taken. here's what we know from passengers on the bus. most were students from the southern california area on the way to visit humble state university for the school's spring preview day. the scho

market is running on the fed minutes.nd i chatted with arthur cashin from ubs he said, market is running up, accommodative fed. higher rates will come later. the bond market is reacting. bond market is 2.69%, melissa. you see it right under 2.7%. back to you. melissa: nicole, thank you so much. if your mom or daughter is staying out of the workforce might be the best thing you can do for their financial future. i know. a new study by the pew research center, daughters of stay-at-home moms grow up to have higher household incomes than their peers and that is because they tend to pick wealthier spouses. let that marinate for a second. here to break it down, charlie gasparino and james freeman are back. and the princeton mom herself, susan patton. she is the author of "mary smart." no coincidence there. i want to say out of the gate we're bound to offend everyone with this conversation. no way to do it. i apologize ahead of time. i thought this was staggering the research they found. so if they didn't work, their parents did

liz: let's get to today, call it what it is a fed fueled market reaction. mike floor ren tino, global financial capital chief global strategist. he give investors what he says three unloverred stocks that will pay investors well. bryan piskorowski says you should not sit on your cash right now, no way. todd who are ritz -- horowitz, we begin with todd. what was it? was there a specific line in there? >> hi liz, hi, david. look it when, they come and say we'll basically day trade the market, keep interest rates low, there is no hint we'll go higher which janet yellen said two weeks ago in chicago, we'll not raise rates anytime soon, that fueled the rally. right now unfortunately for me there is no place else to go with your money and it is being pushed into the equity market however we are still in a sweeping range of 1840 on the downside, and 1808 to 1890 on the upside, depending how you look at it in my eyes we're coming up to good selling opportunity f you're bull you're saying hey, we're making money. david: one trader quoted on market watch, there was n

fed chair. liesman monitoring all of that. we'll bring you the head lines and the market moves as a result of all of it in new york city. >>> coming up, two major bank earnings on top before the bell. so which one is your best buy today? john najarian and mike murphy face off, and you'll crown the winner. here's a live look at how the companies are reporting after the bell. how they're doing right now. there you go. amex, google, ibm, ksu, and sallie mae. we're back after this. in today's market, a lot can happen in a second. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price, maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. but with so much health care noise, i didn't

is the fed clear? 64% say fed monetary policy is clear and prevalent.ee if this decline is a trend. 36% not clear and credible. some of the commentary. you know the notes that come along when your kid gets his report card. here are some of them. going forward, the fed needs to articulate a what if strategy. what do we do if it falls short? bob brusca said the fed needs to make its inflation target a real promise. finally, the exit strategy could be more difficult than the fix-it strategy. coming up at 10:00, the fed's views -- i'm sorry, the fed sraeur on t's survey. for a good time call andrew. it's signed j.k. i don't know what could could mean. >> did you make that up? >> no. it says it right there. i'm not making it up. >> are there phone numbers? >> 867-5309. >> joe and andrew, together forever. >> that's andrew's phone number, 867-5309. >> jenny, jenny. >> andrew, who can i -- ♪ >> ♪ >> great song. tommy tutone. what's his name? >> i think it is tutone. ♪ jenny, jenny, who can i turn to ♪ >> what was the real point of this song? >> that number was

the needle has moved to the fed.ason why you see the euro staying at such high levels against the dollar for the time being. if the ecb doesn't do anything, germany is such a money machine. there's so much capital surplus. it still remains relatively strong. >> do you agree that japan, maybe we are seeing some positive signs that could aoe merge from this long period of -- i don't know what you would call it. >> the trade in japan is the widow maker. i remain dubious they will be able to perform well. i think it may be losing its luster as a safe haven currency. we have 21 consecutive months of current account deficits right now. they are running big trade deficits continuously. they will run them for as far as the eye can see. i think the attraction of the yen may come down a little bit which is why you see the dollar pick up today. whether japan can really recover, i think the jury still out. i'm just not smart enough to hazard a guess on that. >> you said you were against consensus. >> good reason why they are ske

sure enough it looks like the fed put maybe back on. there was a unanimous decision to drop thresholds being used to telegraph a possible rate hike. and the markets, you saw the dow yesterday, it took off, adding 180 points for a better than 1% advance. the s&p 500 gaining over 1%, adding 20 points to close at 1872. finally we are above where we closed the year last year. we're looking at a gain of 23 points for the course of this year. the nasdaq stormed back. internet and biotech names lead the way. it added 7 points. in europe right now, markets around the globe taking cues from what they've seen right now. i take that back. you see red arrows. the dax in germany down by 0.4%, the cac down by 0.4% and the ftse down by a few points. dow futures down by 52 points below fair value, s&p 500 futures off by just over 6 points and thes that dock down by about 15 points. the bond mark set where a lot of the attention is being paid. the ten-year is 2.545%. the markets get the weekly jobless claims report coming at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. econ

the fed blew the move.nd, tpaopb. >> why do you say it means nothing now when it means so much then. >> at these level of rates of moving other directions isn't going to stimulate or hurt the economy. >> it doesn't indicate the economy isn't going to do 3%. we're still going to do 3% this year. >> you're going to accelerate the second half of the year. it will be very healthy. second quarter, maybe you get a little hit. great wall street journal article about tax receipts. get the people nervous about spending they will pull back. worry about the second quarter a little bit. even though we're optimistic on that. the second half of the year or you're getting close enough to rate hikes. ceos are saying should i make the investment now or wait. understand that the clock is running. they're going to begin to invest. >> really? >> yes. >> we have had five years of 2%. at best. >> yeah. >> zero rates have helped keep the economy low. >> things are positive enough it's going to uptick from 2 to 3. >> we can see th

here is something interesting about the fed.dy noticed that the fed tapering, at least no one has told the bond markets. the 10-year note yield is lower than it was before the fed started tapering. the fed tapering had no effect on the cost of money at this point. adding more to it will not help. >> to what do you attribute that? our investors that worried about the global situation right now? right rate the's global economy is slowing. the u.s. economy is healing, but it's not taking off. we are looking at an economy that will grow maybe at 2.5% real. in a world where the fed maintains short rates low for an extended period, it only gets to a two percent real or two percent nominal. i think that is really what the market is realizing and if that is the case, low interest rates will also support the healing process in the equity market. >> low interest rates as far as the eye can see. and a market that continues to move higher. and equity market that is up so far this year, was up a time last year. not a lot of economic data to

host: if interest rates are raised by the fed and bond buying is lessened by the fed, is that going toring a shock in the system which has been used to it for so long? guest: that's right. that's a very good question. and i think the fed will have to carefully orchestrate any kind of reversal in policy and so right now, as i said, the fed earlier this year began withdrawing or reducing the bond purchases, buying $85 billion a month of treasury and mortgage-backed securities to last year and it has been reducing in the last three policy meetings, it reduced by $10 billion and it has been trying to reduce it gradually and doesn't want to do anything abruptly because you're right, the markets might react to adversity and you might get shocks and of course we know what a shock can do for the economy. and the same with interest rates. that's why the forward guidance, sort of laying out the roadmap and giving investors and others clues and information about what it's like and what would trigger those kinds of actions and i think those are very important. host: we have a question for don lee

projections that the fed puts out.we thought it was prior surveys. take a look another place where they are somewhat more hawkish. we ask people if you're wrong about the federal forecast, how do you think you're wrong? will the fed be more dovish than you expect, more hawkish or is it balanced? >> 50% think that the fed in '14 and '15 could be more dover than they expect but look at here, '15, 40% compared to 21% are worried about a more hawkish fed in 2015. perhaps that's because of growth. take a look at some of our results from economic growth projections. the lowest probably that we've ever recorded in the entire years that we've been doing the survey, 14.6%, average probably of recession in the next 12 months. that goes along, guys, with somewhat higher growth forecasts for next year, along with this year here. go to the next one, 3.7%, there it is right there, 2.7% growth forecast for this year, going up to 3% next year. that would make sense to go along with a somewhat higher forecast for the fed funds rate. ba

because it is fed day. just minutes away from the latest policy statement. everybody wants to know after that the soft gdp number, whether the american economy is actually weakening and what the fed chair plans to do about it, mandy, if it is. >>> it is still down, and we'll keep an eye on that. let's look at what they're doing. the 30-year at 3.47%. take out your pencils, write down what's happening, as the s&p is very slightly to the up side. >>> and as always, folks, on these fed days we have collect add small group of people to have you make sense. they are both in tv land, but here on the said jpmorgan funds. >>> we are expecting a quiet fed statement. we're expecting no dissents. so as we look at they numbers, a lot of the change will likely be in the economic outlook paragraphs. we are probably going to see some slowdown in housing, but that's about it. >> what about you, david kelly? what does it mean for stocks? >> when you have the ten-year as you mentioned, we have the s&p close to an all-time record high, the economy is weak, but it's crouching f

most of what she had to say was in defense of how the fed goes about it. it is important, she said, to use forward guidance to try to influence the direction of interest rates, and that is what the fed has been trying to do. the question is -- what is their forward guidance telling us? if they're going to go to this model of minding the gaps, then the forward guidance will be .ind of murky that is one of those takeaways that is counterfactual. you don't know what it would be otherwise, but you don't know what they are going to use, so you kind of have to guess for yourself what the fed is doing, you some quantitative analysis, and that will be an interesting debate in the markets and among market participants to exactly what they see the economy doing. i'm already getting messages from various economists who disagree over whether the economy is firming, whether there's a lot of slack in the labor market, and whether inflation will pick up quickly. >> right. you said the job market has been disappointingly low, inflation persistently low. how do you think t

what is the fed going to do?n issue. >> she said it's the lack of inflation. >> her base case at this point is that we're dealing with more of a risk of deflation or disinflation than hyper inflation. that's her bias. but if it turns out that forecast is wrong. >> if this is a situation where we're watching inflation numbers running low and a lot of people have been anticipating, other people buying groceries or gas, they will tell you a different story. but things turn quickly generally when you do see a spike in inflation. do you worry about that. >> it can turn quickly. and i do worry. i think what you're hearing from phil is what i say about the reaction function. if inflation turns out higher, then we will do this. it is getting away from the unconditional promise of zero rates. that is the real message the fed is trying to get over. people want to listen through the filter of she's a dove and she's telling us rates will be on hold even longer. i'm not sure that's right. food prices. they are a devilish this

during her first public event as fed chair... she talked about what the fed can do... machine turning on and humming the machines were humming... and the students were singing the praises of an advanced manufacturing program... as janet yellen toured the city colleges of chicago. she applauded the inexpensive... short-term program.. teaming up business professionals and academics to try to close the skills gap... but said such efforts aren't enough to lower nagging unemployment -- declaring the fed's 'job is not done.' "i think this extraordinary commitment is still needed and will be for some time." yellen "also" told more than a thousand community development professionals that the fed has its eyes on 'slack' in the labor market. that's when the pool of "skilled" workers seeking employment.. outweighs the jobs available. " no amount of training will be enough if there aren't enough jobs to fill." the fed head hints that interest rates will likely remain low until unemployment declines further... an attitude that turned into a market mover. "today's rally suggests tha

fed had ay that the big role in that. if we are to assume the fed is going to continue to be there and we can quote you earlier saying it was the most dovish speech you've ever heard, should we assume that the market is going to get better? all aboutering is handing the economy off to its own internal momentum. i don't think we need the ever-expanding balance sheet. go back and look at the balance sheet expansion since 1913. it wasn't driving the dow jones industrial average since 1913. when the s&p was 600 and change back in 2009. i have been thinking about this all day. trying to -- the credit markets didn't really do much. there is no sort of panic selling or the cusp of the names. this looks like a rotation inequities, a lot of people with a lot of positions that are getting tested a little bit. >> we have remained in a pretty tight range. >> may be in the first quarter, change a few portfolios and maybe rethink the valuation. >> we talked about the minutes in the earlier segment and the dots really threw us all for a

the feds theoretically hates inflation. aboute people so worried the falling inflation rate ahead of the latest government report? turning to michael mckee. i imagine people are getting what this says or does, we are not seeing any inflation and begs a lot of questions. lex it does. people do not like inflation. a sign of economic weakness. no one getting the benefit anywhere. paying your bill back with dollars that are worth less. also, you do not want to get any closer to deflation. that means no one buys anything down the road. the fed target is two percent. the have been below that for more than a year now. they put that in place when inflation was well above two percent. they are trying to get out of that. generally week economy is the real reason. no pricing power. no one is getting raises and no one is able to raise prices. energy and commodity prices falling as well. that has been starting to change. the government sequester, a two percent cut in medicaid payments. that pushed the sequester down starting last april.

everyone seems to believe the fed.ots of work on this and we think that the on a blended rate is a pretty good measure of the speed at which capacity is being used up. >> is they're going to, moment -- everybody has been stunned about how strong the euro has been. what effect will that halfback into the inflation story? a the u.s. economy is reasonably closed economy. it does not export that much. to notgs in a dollar have a huge impact on the inflation picture. what is crucial is what happened in the labor market. if wage growth starts to exaggerate to four percent and productivity growth remains low, which we think it will, then you will see price pressure start to develop regardless of what happens to the dollar. >> thank you so much. paul dale. we are back in a couple of minutes. ♪ >> welcome back. you are watching "the pulse." all morning we have been taking you to the shores of lake como. let's bring you live pictures from there. i am told by italians. it's foggy and damp, but it looks pretty nice to me. >> we sp

of this is the result of the fed.nvestors are breathing a sigh of relief that interest rate will not go up soon. we want to get additional comment on the fed minutes and the market from julie hyman. >> we continue the phenomenon rate where the fed comes out and said something and the markets are spooked because the rates are going to go up, and then you see a reassurance happen. that is what seems to be happening once again. it is all about the mulligan today, and this time on the upside. had momentum really catch investor attention, whether it is falling or rising. facebook is up again today. you saw a lot of the biotech up again, and a lot of the technology. i know you are looking at some breaking news over here. >> looking at some news on new jersey. but anyway, this market has clearly seen a lot of upside here. because of the fed. that is a big part of it. the way, we want to move onto to the roundup. these are the stories we are talking about ahead of tomorrow. nat is kicking it off. we were talking about toyota

fed ex freight is a massive the company. they have more than 20,000 vehicles and employ 35,000 employees. as with all employees, they must undergo drug and alcohol testing. investigators will be looking at all these factors to determine a cause. and that could take anywhere from three to six months. live in the newsroom. elise kirschner. >>> we're going to continue our coverage of the bus crash. we have a slide show of raw video of today's news conference with the ntsb. we're constantly updating that story. >>> new video tonight connected to a suspicious fire at oakland children's hospital. oakland firefighters released this video surveillance of a man who they describe as a person of interest. according to investigators, the video shows the man walking into the area your the fire started last friday morning. the fire burned part of an administration building on 53rd street. firefighters have not released what started it, but they say flames caused $150,000 worth of damage. no injuries were reported. >>> nearly a quarter mil

overall, the feds' report overall, the feds' report suggests in the a lot moderate hiccup from mid marchhrough early april, particularly in regions that had been heaard hi by winter weather. there was something to the fact that the freeze was keeping everybody in indoors. consumer manufacturing increased while the outlook for housing remains a bit cloudy. today, we got data and comments from the if he had chair, herself, about this. i will get to janet yellen in a moment. first let me talk about housing. housing starts, now, these measure groundbreaking activity for new hose. they rose 2.8% in march to the fastest pace so far this year. >> that's a monthly number, monthly gain of 2.8. permits to build houses, a barometer for future construction activity fell 2.4%, dragged down by meulti-family homes. they are apartments, how you might think of them. industrial production, i want you to see this, messuring the output of industry, mines, factories, it was un7/10ths in march. the february number -- a lot of these numbers are revised when we get the next month's number. february was revised

with a straight face. >> you mean because of the fed? >> yeah, because of the fed. tell me that prices are not manipulated in the bond market. >> you can say that at any point because of the u.s. government. the u.s. government can step in and change the rules at any point. that's the always been the case with any market. >> not to this extent. normally bond prices are allowed to find a more normal -- that has not been the case since the financial crisis. that is something jim chanos will talk about later on this morning. >> even libor, compared to holing the ten year -- >> one goes to trust and confidence in the government, but there's one thing -- >> no, there's not. >> but i'm saying there's an established rule and this is something very different. >> the s.e.c. established these rules. >> he thinks you're due for something. you may not pay attention to the jobs numbers, but would you pay attention to a broader macro issue like that. >> i think the fed has been supporting the market for years now. >> that goes without saying. >> yeah. they've been impacting the y

economy to accelerate and it puts the fed in a difficult position. they see inflationary pressures being quite low. they are looking at wage pressures, looking at the housing markets. those are a couple of factors that inform my views. i want to give, david levy the benefit of the doubt. let's say that interest-rate stay where they are the rest of the decade. what investments should you be in the rest of the decade? >> we remain bullish on stocks. to look atstarting international investing, probably at about six months to a year. i just came back from a five-city tour of china and got a lot of great input from southeast asia. adjustablerst, rates, fixed income instruments, anticipating the longer-term rates slowly go up will be the second choice. and we probably continue to avoid the hard comedies. we love the dividend growth stocks. we like companies that have broad exposure, have the ability to maintain profit margins, and are in position to be able to meet global megatrend demand, whether food, water, cyber security, health care, energy, many outs

the c-h-p says the drivers of both the fed-ex truck and the tour bus are among the dead. investigators say the other seven people killed are all passengers on the bus, but its still unclear whether those were teenage students. the freeway was shut down in both directions -- and the c-h-p says this area will not reopen until seven oc'lock tomorrow morning, while officers complete their investigation. police on scene say, the 46- passengers on the bus were students from three different schools in los angeles. headed through the town of orland to visit humboldt state university. the c-h-p plans to investigate what happened throughout the night. humboldt state university released a statement after the crash tonight -- saying quote. our hearts go out to those who have been affected, and we are here to support them, and their families, in any way possible. fed-ex *also released a statement tonight -- saying -- quote -- "our thoughts and prayers are with everyone involved in the tragic accident on i-5 in california. we are cooperating fully with authorities as they investigate."