the fed woulnot stand .iseits scouateorceanksase e instido si the sult--foreiginvestors earned more interest and left their money in u. banks. th ended theoldrain. but rag thdiscount re had other, less fortunate, consequences. if the federal reserve raises the discount rate that tramits a message banksnd toney marke thatt wants be restrictive. for the economy as a whole the result was disastrous. high interest rates discouraged borrowing, choking off business credit. more businesses failed more jobs lost and more banks collapsed. the country was pushed deeper into the great depression. well, professor, if you graded the fed-- a, b, c, d, f-- what would ibe in the 1930s? i would grade it as an "f" applying today's standar probably a "d," applying even the standards-- the most advanced standards of tt day. sure, you can criticize the d. it made mistakes. but what it did wrong was a matter of degree, mostly rather tn... total mistakes of policy. the men who met around this table were some of the country's most

what a fed day. it's our own version of march madness, by the way, is what's going on here. >> eight minutes to go into the close, and the dow looking for a gain here of almost 200 points. that u.s. 10-year treasury yield below 2%. the s&p better than 1% session, up 22 points. the nasdaq up 41. even oil is green. gold up. look at that almost 20 bucks on the session. and the heat map tells you just what kind of session it is. one in which about 9 out of about 10 names are positive on the session. >> about four hours ago that was a very red chart. turned around big time. we'll have much more on the fed policy, what it means for markets and your money still ahead on "closing bell." stay tuned. if you're running a business legalzoom has your back. over the last 10 years we've helped one million business owners get started. visit legalzoom today for the legal help you need to start and run your business. legalzoom. legal help is here. do you have something for pain? i have bayer aspirin. i'm not having a

what the fed did was twofold.supplied liquidity, through ordinary open-market operations and through use of the discount window -- very standard techniques of supplying liquidity. but, under the guidance of chairman greenspan, they also sought to reduce the demand for liquidity in other words, to use what you might call tender persuasion to convince people that they needn't go seeking liquidity bidding for liquidity, that it would be there. schoumacher: in 1929 the fed tightened the money supply. this time, greenspan did the opposite -- the fed's message was, whatever you need, we'll give you. greenspan had said the magic words, but was anyone listening? on tuesday morning the market continued its dive, plunging 225 points. by noon, the market was approaching complete meltdown. buying was at a virtual standstill. then, buy orders began trickling in like water upon parched land. the buying trend accelerated and wednesday morning, the world awoke to headlines touting the largest rally in the big board's history. 6 f

will the fed become impatient? you heard her say no not so in deciding when to raise interest rates, quite the contrary said chair yellin. said the fed will remain cautious and focused on economic data and some of that data said the fed indicates the pace of economic growth in the u.s. has moderated lately and that launched stocks like an f-18 off a carrier deck. rose 227 points. close above 18,000 trading in a 1400 point range. nasdaq gained 45. s&p 500 tacked on 25. the yield on the 10-year bond fell back below 2%. and one of the biggest moves was in the currency market as the dollar slumped and the euro jumped. two reports tonight. bob pisani on the markets. sharp reaction from the new york stock exchange but first, hampton pearson has more on what some are calling the federal reserve's most important policy decision in years. >> reporter: federal reserve chair janet yellin and fellow monetary policy makers appear ready to open the door to a rate increase later this year. but they also appear to be in no rush to

the fed does listen and the fed listened today.trength of the dollar 15 to 20% over the last 16 months makes a significance difference in terms of our internal inflation and growth rates. >> maybe missed in this is the projection on short term rates, effectively slicing them in half later this year and next year. that is moving the shorter end of the curve right now. what do you think they would do that? and as a guy who runs a bond fund what are you doing about it. >> i think they did that because of the strong dollar. the bank of england today came out with a dovish statement and said the pound was too strong. so countries around the world, central banks around the world are fighting a currency war and it's about time i suppose, that the united states joined in this particular conflict. so i think the dollar was dominant and that interest rates have been brought down in terms of their projections in order to weaken the dollar somewhat going forward. what does that mean for bonds going forward? to me if the fed funds rate is lower

it's obvious to me that the audit the fed effort is to not address auditing the fed because the fed is is audited and every day you publish the numbers of things you own and the credit facilities you put in place during an emergency, all of that is audited now, so, to me, it's an attempt to allow congress to be able to put pressure on fed members relative to monetary policy and i would just advocate that that would not be a particularly good idea and it would cause us to put off tough decisions for the future, like we are doing with budgetary matters. do you agree? >> i strongly agree. as i indicated, well, let me say more generally, i think if you look around the globe in modern times and you consider ef country that's gone through a period of chronic high inflation of hyper inflation, what you will find is the central bank that was pressured to print money by -- politicians who were unable to balance the budget. >> so, i'm closed. i thank you, mr. chairman, for a little extra time. i think one area that greater transparency could be utilized is in the regulatory area around things li

the fed's the main story today.at happens on the day fed announcements happen. back to 2010. what happens on the day the fed announcement occurs in the market? 38 meetings since 2010. s&p 500, not impressive, up 60% of the time. average gain 0.3%. the best trade you could make buy at the open sell at the close, we asked, it was the financials. s&p financials xlff etf. low inflation, strong dollar a string of disappointing economic numbers. sara, gdp number's going to be much lower than expected for the first quarter. i think the fed will remain dovish. the joke here is they'll remove the phrase "patient" and put back "considerable time." remember that? that's the phrase they used to use. i wouldn't be surprised if they tried to do something exactly along those lines to plug the hole that will exist once they remove that word "patient." right now, down 81. >> nothing i love more than jokes about fed language. thank you, bob pisani. let's go to the bond pits. rick santelli in chicago with the ten-year drifting down to

when is your fed rate hike?> the move in the interest-rate projections, the statement at the press conference were pretty much in line. i saw the move probably a little bit more than apparently the markets were expecting. our call was for a june lift off. we are obviously on our heels after today's news. it does look like the center groups are probably more aligned with september. it does present a challenge to our cause for sure. >> take a look at the futures rate you see an increased probability of a rate hike increasing to 40% probability. carl, what do you think? >> i think september is probably still a main target here. they could go as late as october. i do not think that happens. i think the fed wants to wait to see what transpires in the economy in the first half of the year. we know the first quarter of data looked weird because of the weather issues. sit back and get a good sense of what q1 looks like an q2, -- alix: the better question is when is the next time they raise? >> your point, we were just t

are you more worried about the fed moving too soon or too late to raise rates now that fed chair janet yellen has opened the door with the potential to rate hikes? tweet us. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ omar:tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." olivia just mentioned the german 10 year. let's get to our top headlines. brendan: we begin with the federal reserve. it has opened the door to the first interest rate increase in almost a decade. the fed does not seem to be in a hurry. when they start raising rates, they will do it slowly. the price of oil is falling again after a brief rally. west texas intermediate is trading at under $44 per barrel. also crossing the bloomberg terminal, investigators are trying to figure out why a navy seal plunged to his death. his parachute failed. penn state's president's warning students involved in the nude photo scandal could be expelled. they posted photos of women naked and unconscious on facebook. police are also investigating. coming soon, your favorite tv shows on your videogame console. playstation has its view service. i

to senior fed officials the fed found serious deficiencies.k management and operations, revenue projection, modeling fundamental parts of running a bank. here is a direct quote from the feds report. widespread and critical deficiencies across the banks capital planning processes. numerous and significant deficiencies approaches to loss and revenue projection. these are things that should raise red flags for shareholders and customers. in the case of bank of america the company can proceed with its dividend and buyback plan on the condition that it resubmit's i capital distribution program to the fed by september 30, and they gets approved. weaknesses in certain aspects of bank america's loss in revenue modeling practices and in some aspects of the dhc's financial -- from the standpoint of the fed there are problems. alix: to eric's point, it is the second time around they have a new chairman, new ceo, and they continue to have these issues. what you think about the foreign bank? >> there are real some -- some real concerns generated with these

the fed focused on what fed chair janet yellen has to say and the market is sure to react.or the opening bell. check out the futures this morning. when we first came in and started looking at things looked like futures up about 10 points for the dow. an 80-point swing, dows down by 87 points, cnns&p down by 7.5 and the ftse is up 10 points. and. >> a lot of stockings to tell you about. fedex earnings beating the street. shares of general mills getting a boost in earnings beating. and the company expects strong growth to continue. it also plans to cut 800 jobs. then adobe, reporting smaller than increased projections. and current earnings view is light. and oracle topping consensus and compete is raising its quarterly dividend by 25%. then nekis tar therapeutic, being a buyingeing a big loser today. its breast cancer drug didn't reach its goal. and herbalife suggesting a district court has dismissed a shareholder lawsuit against the company. don't know how much that was weighing on the stock. pandora getting a bump. it cites more favorable counting cost scenarios. we have al

i'm fed up with the fed, and i think you should be too.o here's the thing, i think there should be no fed, no bailouts, no corporate welfare. if you agree with me, tweet me @cbpayne. let's borrow the line from td ameritrade's commercial, whatever, janet. now let's go to nicole petallides on the floor of the new york stock exchange. i want the pulse of the market to see how they really feel down there about the fed, nicole. >> charles, on today's pulse of the floor, get an informal survey. walked around, talked to the traders about what they thought. 100% of the people that we surveyed actually think fed was necessary. but they had tons of complaints. it's too secretive, it's too reactive, it's too much service for equity markets and not enough for regular folks. that being said, another big, big complaint and another theme that we saw is that it's a political tool. ted weisberg, seaport securities said exactly that. so there were a lot of complaints about the fed. but it's something that everybody seems to believe is that the fed is necess

investors will be listening when fed policymakers wrap up a two day meeting the fed might remove an assuranceill be "patient" before adjusting interest rates. opening the door to increase as early as june. gay marriage getting the blessing of america's largest presbyterian denomination. leaders of the presbyterian church usa changed their definition of marriage to include same-sex couples. the church has nearly 2 million members in the u.s.. a historic arrest in what was your's -- europe's worst civilian slaughter since world war ii p seven men have been taken into custody by serbian police. prosecutors say they murdered nearly 1000 bosnian muslims in 1995. the first to be charged with the massacre. kraft foods is recalling 6.5 milling boxes of macaroni and cheese. some boxes contain small pieces of metal. the boxes were sold in the u.s., puerto rico and parts of south america. kraft says 8 people found metal but it has no reports of injuries. internet explorer heading to history's dustbin. the browser was an internet mainstay for 20 years. being kicked to the curb by microsoft in favor of a

if we do get a fed lift off what will it look like?t will the trajectory and pace be in your point of view. >> as long as they control the fed you can guarantee yourself it will be extremely slow and methodical. we have to ask ourselves are we repeating the mistakes of keeping rates too low for too long. we have already done that. six years at zero creates major distortion in terms of cost discovery. there's a lot of rot at having rates at zero but that said the pace of increases is going to be very slow and potentially messy. >> fed decision coming out at 2:00 p.m. eastern. thank you for giving us your perspective. 2:00 p.m. eastern we get the fed decision followed by the news conference. cnbc will have full coverage today on power lunch. >> the first pilot to attempt to fly around the world without using any fuel started the third leg of his journey. the swiss solar powered plane took off from the indian city this morning. the plane will then fly further east by china and mayanmar. he is the cofounder and ceo and pilot. he joins us l

last fed statement in january.surprise here. inflation making a big appearance what about the buzzword patient. is the market ready for a rate hike. plus, we go under the radar. nintendo making a move you might haves missed. it is shaking up the stock. and we count down to the european close as well. equities across the pond mixed today ahead of the fed's decision and its statement and news conference we're back after this. sometimes romantic. there were tears in my eyes. and tears in my eyes. and so many little things that we learned were really the biggest things. through it all, we saved and had a retirement plan. and someone who listened and helped us along the way. because we always knew that someday the future would be the present. every someday needs a plan. talk with us about your retirement today. ♪ ♪ (under loud music) this is t♪ ♪lace. their beard salve is made from ♪ ♪ sustainable tea tree oil and kale... you, my friend, recognize when a trend has reached critical mass. yes, when others focus on one thi

what we learned from the fed yesterday from senior fed officials is the fed is fine with that.ing because shares of all three of those banks are up today 2% or 3%. they delivered for their shareholders. bypassed wall street, the new jordan belford. ♪ betty: we all know jordan belford and the fortune he made in penny stocks. turns out there is a new wolf of wall street in town though he never worked on wall street. josh is 27 years old and invested $200 million in penny stocks himself go. a great article from zeke in bloomberg this week. when we know about this 27-year-old millionaire who was six years ago living with his parents on long island? >> he was in a band hoping to be a rock star when he learned this one weird legal trick that lets you make huge returns on penny stocks which are usually a horrible investment. the way it works is instead of buying the stock, he loans companies money and then gets in return millions or even billions of shares at a big discount to the market price. betty: so the loans convert to stock. at a huge discounted price. what happens if those com

fed just bought several trillion dollars worth of bonds. >> i know what the fed did. >> the fed hasl in history. the ecb -- you think -- >> paul volcker did something unusual in history. >> you think the german bund yielding 7 basis -- >> 27 basis points. >> you have to go but inflation will be a problem. we're running wage costs now better than 4%. >> all right. >> watch out for inflation in years to come. >> we'll have a part two coming up. >> watch for deflation. >> ron, david sowerby, thank you, gentlemen. we have more on oracle's earnings report with josh lipton. what can you tell us josh? >> kelly, it might be unusual in an earnings release for a company to directly call out a rival but that is exactly what oracle's larry ellisson does here saying we're well on our way to selling over $1 billion of new software as a service and platform as a service business in 2015. ellison goes on to say sales force has announced it also expects to add $1 billion of new business in these areas this year. so it's going to be a close race who sells more in the cloud this year. us or them. stay

we are missing to fed members -- two fed members here. the staff is going to contribute their forecast to the projections, but when you get somebody to take those places, it may change again. we don't know which the dots ar e, but you have to take that with a little great of salt. but if they do in general, it will be a slower pace and that will please the market. scarlet: there is a factor the fed cannot overlook. what kind of allowances or concessions does the federal reserve make with regard to the dollar? edward: the fed certainly takes into account exchange rates in setting monetary policy. exchange rates are not simply set the fed, but also set in interactions with other banks as well and the ecb has been the primary player in that scenario. if we are looking at exchange rates, it has not so much to do with the fed and much more to do with the ecb and the bank of japan as well. i do think the discussion on exchange rates it tends to be over emphasized. while exchange rates are orton and they do affect the economy and trade patterns,

but not everyone thinks the fed will be quite so easy. >> i think the fed has been slow to act and is a little behind the curve, and as a result they may end up moving a little faster than what the markets have priced in. >> reporter: in fact 54% of respondents to the survey think the fed is too everybodyasy, behind the curve. by complicateing the fed decision is a strong dollar. that could give the fed pause from hiking rates too soon because inflation will remain below its 2% target. >> i don't think the fed is so much on the verge of raising rates right now. think they want to. i don't think the day that will accommodate it. >> reporter: but the if ed is only clearing the runway by removing patience. for "nightly business report," i'm steve leisman. >>> let's turn to our two economic experts who have different points of view on how fast and how far they think rates will go. bob bruscoe, chief economist with fact and opinion economics. and joef n n tachltaroff. joe, you see rates moving a quarter point at a time all the way through the end of next year so we end up at 3.25% by chris

the fed becomes irrelevant to the dollar move. what does the fed do? it steps back.aying at some point there's going to be an issue where the fed won't be able to control the markets, if they get the wage and price inflation ultimately that they'll get. >> go ahead, steve. >> very very quickly, i think what we're getting and underlying joe's comment here is the fed making a policy mistake right now by paying the too close attention to the market? i don't think there's evidence of that right now, but it could show up. over the six-year period we've been talking about this it doesn't appear as if the policy itself has led to -- >> but the great moderation itself didn't become evident until many years later. it's like a sunburn, you don't pay for it until years after the fact. >> well put. make sure to catch rick santelli's exclusive interview with dallas fed president richard fisher of a like mind with mr. santelli. that will be tomorrow on squawk on the street. time now for a business news update this hour. here's sue herrera with our headlines. sue? >> indeed bill. h

fed meeting.pping central bank activity is the new trader's love and believe me if janet yellen sticks or removes patience, watch the euro downside over the next several days. tyler, back to you. >> rick thank you very much. we are having a look at tesla shares right now. the ceo elon nuskmusk gearing up to speak any moment now about the future of the auto industry. and there you see the stock basically flat at this hour 195.67. will he say anything about tesla's future? we have all the headlines as they cross. >>> plus he's only played for one season in the nfl, but a young star already calling it quits out of fear of developing a brain injury. could his decision become the nfl's next headache? if you're running a business legalzoom has your back. over the last 10 years we've helped one million business owners get started. visit legalzoom today for the legal help you need to start and run your business. legalzoom. legal help is here. now with the xfinity tv go app, you can watch live tv anytime.

one of the things about the fed, a transparent fed, people feel like they're sending the wrong directionthey're look agent dateing at data dataness uneven. >> oil bowelo 43. opec leaving their forecast for nonopec supply unchanged. they think later in the year we might get change in output. >> i'm looking at the numbers, a very good oil company announced a secondary, it shows you how these guys need cash flow 4.5 million shares a very good company i was looking my guys rbn, who i use, they come out with an interesting report. peripheral fields beginning to get shut down. the field in utah new field was there, they're not drilling. you're going to see at this time next year not drilling issues are going to start making so our depletion is for real but it's this time next year. this first quarter is breakout quarter for oil production in the country. >> that's goppinging to hurt airlines. >> s&p one of the greatest mutual funds. take them out, they have allergan, perfect, what a great win, add american. who knows what they're up to next. they are really fantastic managers. >> market weight

let's get back to our fed roundtable.oining me this afternoon, constance hunter sebastian gailey and lisa abramowitz standing by with wall street's reaction, scarlet fu. what more reaction are we seeing on wall street from this latest news? scarlet: we are holding on to our gains. you can see on the chart behind me, following the fomc announcement we have continued to build on our advances. at the best levels of the session. it is pretty much across the board. the only sector not participating its consumer staples. lisa just mentioned the higher rates in the credit market. maybe a rush to refinance debt as well. for equities it would increase the cost of share buybacks for companies that tap the credit market in order to get cash to buy back their stocks. which could mean less ability for companies to boost their earnings-per-share number. in the slow-growing economy, there is struggle to grow revenue. companies were able to engineer their eps by cutting costs and boosting their earnings-per-share through the effective sh

does the fed need to wait to see it? is there something different this time or should they trust it's going to happen and move now? >> well, there was a lot of jambalaya in that question. here is what i see. i see it takes an awful lot of addictive liquidity to get a certain amount of growth and every else is superfluous to the discussion because the reality is that we have 11 basis points up on 10s on the day, a quarter point up on the week and the stock market is down 250 pounds. i'm in the guy adami camp or he's in my camp because in the end we've all heard it dozens of times. rates going up is bullish. i would like to think so but i think that the stock market is going to have to recalibrate to a new world if the fed normalizes rates. the problem is that the fed is now a coho salmon. they missed opportunities to normalize rates, now they're going to do it and they need to do it but they're doing it at exactly the wrong time. they're going against all the other central banks, against all the growth trends in china. so

guy: don't fight the fed. a rally is amid speculation yellen isn't in a rush to raise rates. >> insiders tell bloomberg the chancellor is looking for a compromise. guy: and time is money, as they unthe latest watch. we speak to the c.e.o. in an exclusive interview. guy: good morning, everyone. we are live from bloomberg's european headquarters. i'm guy johnson. francine: i'm francine lacqua. janet yellen opened the door for an interest rate rise, but indicated that dropping the fed's patience stance doesn't mean they will be impatient when it comes to monetary policy tightening, leading to predictions that it won't come until the autumn. guy: bonds jumped on yellen's comments, while the dollar saw its biggest drop in six years. for more, we're joined by our chief economics correspondent, simon kennedy. she just backed off a little bit. the market can now rule out june and we're on to september. simon: maybe not rule out june quite yet. if the data picks up, june is still a possibility. but yes, the consensus i

our number one story is the fed. fed day.ou -- ray dalio founder of bridgewater associates, saying there is a risk the federal reserve could create a market rout similar to 1937 if it raises rates too fast. rates could rise in june or september. what is the chance you see the fed raise rates fast? michael: zero. if it is even perceived they are going to raise them too fast, he is saying we could have a problem. we have someone who is going to be happy jeff goodlatte. alex: he called the fed a blockhead. i agree, i would say the chances are low but it is worth it for investors and others to come out and say make sure you do not do this to quickly. just for the possibility of it happening. michael: janet yellen has said that. she has told us she's not going to do it. the fed from bernanke to janet yellen has been saying what they are going to do. to the extent that you can believe her, you can, you should. betty: i'm curious when you guys say something like this. they are using a public platform to tell the fed what? michael: w

on the one hand the fed did remove that clear wording of patience suggesting that the fed was ready toaise rates in the near term as soon as possibly june. on the other hand the fed significantly lowered their forecast for growth inflation as well as the pathway for rates suggesting that the time line for lift off was much further out into the future. so although this did seem seemingly contradictory this is a very crafty move by the fed. on the one hand they were able to control the market's reaction or overreax to removal of the key language. they were able to extend the market eck peckation for a mid year rate increase out to the end of the year. by doing these two moves in tandem they were able to control an overreaction by changes in language. >> we saw the u.s. ten year back around the 1.9 levels was back in late february following congress. rate rise expectations back closer. should we be more focused on the data. data continues to be good. >> exactly. you have to look at one thing it is the data. the fed has been clear that they remain data dependent. if they continue to underp

i wish the fed good luck in persisting the cure. the fed has us on seven years of drug induced low interest rate policy. and as we remove from that, seven or eight groups aren't going to like it. treasury market, mortgage industry is not going to like it. the dollar is going to appreciate, that's going hurt u.s. manufacturers and also the earnings and the market, of course, is going to come down. and i'm just saying this is a very difficult period to get through for the fed. how they get through this without a congressional inquiry, i don't know. liz: that is a huge statement. i go ward and say look, they are trying to please all people all the time. that's tough. they did remove the word patience. we are one step closer to actual tightening. because we remove patient doesn't mean we are impatient to raise interest rates. what's your best guess, ward? when will we see the rates tighten? >> for over a year now i thought it would be a fourth quarter phenomenon, and nothing has changed my mind. while the word patient was taken out of p

a look at the premarket as we bounce back from fed day, a couple of fed days."squawk on the street" straight ahead. hello. i am here to offer sophisticated investing strategies. my technology can help you choose the right portfolio. monitor it. and automatically rebalance it. all without charging advisory fees, account service fees or commissions. that may be hard to compute. but i'm a computer. so trust me. it computes. say hello at intelligent.schwab.com can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready? ♪ ♪ can it track my crew's performance, and protect their heads? ♪ ♪ can it tell the flight attendant to please not wake me this time? ♪ ♪ at cognizant, we see opportunities for every company. to meet the new digital demands of their customers. can it process my insurance claim? like, right now? can it download a track while i'm sampling it? can my keys find me? with the power of digital, analytics and automation now every little "thing" can provide even greater value. ok, so can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing? the answer is y

it's the fed.y/wednesday fed rate meetings ultimately with the decision and the one key word and i will channel my inner gun ss n' roses, it's all about patience or the word patient. will it be in the statement in does that provide a catalyst for more nashth volatility in those three are just a few of them. obviously a lot of them out there but janet yellen probably the top of the list for market fear factors next week. back over to you. >> thank you, dom for now on the second of what did you say there are going to be three friday the 13ths this year? >> i think it's in november. >> tomorrow is ultimate pie day as well. that's an important one to flag for your viewers. >> make mine apple. >> 14 minutes to go to the close. speaking of numbers, the dow is off 170 points. now, that nasdaq last week closing above 5,000. this week 4,866. off 27 points today. >> she's behaving herself but you have no idea how excited kelly is for pie day. >> you will get another reference tomorrow. >> $100 million to the

the fed's intention is not to do that. think where markets are getting comfortable is that a rate hike is coming at some point, it's going to be a one and done type of scenario. it was enough last week to kind of take the pressure off of the u.s. dollar rising, lift the names that have been laggards this year. and i think even now, if the u.s. dollar resumes its up trend kwh is what i expect, you'll see other sectors participating and overall, that's still a healthy condition for equities. >> pete, you have a couple of notes of note out there today. they put something out that asks the question, if the dollar starts rising again, could the u.s. dollar strength crash the s&p in the second quarter? >> i don't know that it necessarily crashes it, but it's certainly going to have an impact. one of the things we saw since wednesday last week, three monstrous days. something we had not had in march at all. volumes were extremely light. they were absolutely in a tail spin. suddenly we're trading 4 million per day options compared

the fed has to wrong here. you don't need an economist to do this. >> these banks are over capitalized. they're way over capitalized. >> absolutely. >> what we need is more velocity of money, more activity and they're in a great position for when the economy gets better. >> an incredible five six years it has been since this crisis. today marking an important point in that recovery process. thank you so much for joining us. chris whalen david ellison, jack mohr. we'll have much more on the banks' stress tests. former fdic chair sheila bair will weigh in on the results and whether the fed made the right call. she's been a long time proponent of breaking up the biggies. we'll hear what she has to say next. you total your brand new car. nobody's hurt,but there will still be pain. it comes when your insurance company says they'll only pay three-quarters of what it takes to replace it. what are you supposed to do, drive three-quarters of a car? now if you had a liberty mutual new car replacement, you'd get your whol

do you expect the fed to add anything?indicates that june is a live meeting and june is a possibility for rate hikes. so i would expect patient to get modified and probably disappear from the statement. but ultimately i think putting june on the table is not the same thing as actually hiking in june. i think that probably still will come later and our expectation remains september. >> we're out of time. quickly, you mentioned one 25-basis point rate hike and a subsequent rate hike in two or three months. what does that do to the markets? there's going to be turbulence. does it upset the market or do we sail through that? >> depend on what the data look like. if we have the same kind of economic picture where the economy's growing at an above-trend pace 3% or so we're still adding payrolls at a level somewhere in the 200,000s and the fed does 50 basis points of cumulative hikes through the end of the year i don't think it's a big problem. i think the problem arises if you were to get downside surprises on growth and the fed

the fed wants in. today we had a panel that included the man who created the worldwide web, tim burners lee. he is only worried about one thing. david you would love this. he is worried about the government getting involved or one gigantic business taking over. it should be open, free, real capitalism. it is the wild west right now. we're watching all of that. coming up in this hour we'll talk to two leaders in all of this, charles drucker. wait until you see what he is doing in the mobile payments world. this is extremely important for anybody who is getting prepared to just start paying without real money. and, coming up also we have the mozetos chief market officer. you got to hear what they're doing. it is markets that go front and center david, with the russell 2000 closing at a brand new record. david: free internet, free internet. got to stay free. otherwise it won't be innovative. we have look at today's wild market moves. kimberly moss says dropping patient doesn't guaranty anything. mark mads

now, the fed countdown is

word you need to focus on there is fed, fed, right, rick? >> exactly. boy, you know what? i'm agreeing with everybody today. today is the eighth day in history that we've ever traded above 5,000, but out of these eight times, only two have closed above 5,000. of course, until eight is now. all the other dates are march of 2000. i'll tell you something fascinating. warren buffett was on and we were all mesmerized but we missed something important. at 8:30 eastern when we saw january spending it was down 0.2. you have to go back to the first quarter of '09 to find negative back-to-back spending numbers. it's all about income and spending. we used to say jobs jobs jobs. but whatever the quality of the jobs is it's hard to discern. what isn't hard to discern is that there is a problem, houston. that if we are creating jobs either we're not doing it in the right areas, the money is not enough or the workforce is too small but we need the numbers to upon higher. >> margie some people looked at the savings rate and said maybe there was some wacky w

the fed controls interest rates. puts out fed minutes. all that is market moving.n 2012, the minutes were somehow leaked about a day before they came out publicly to everybody else to some sort of market research firm. what senator warren is doing right now, you know, she's one of the chief watchdogs of the banking system and the fed as well, she wants to know specifically, was that leak thoroughly investigated because it's been two years and nothing has gone on? where is she looking? she's looking at the internal investigative arm of the fed, which comes down to the office of inspector general, which is a guy named mark bealik. he has not been subpoenaed. the thing is not focusing on him right now. clearly they're looking at the potential of a conflict of interest. that's what i'm hearing. nice guy probably. liz: nice picture. >> he runs it. he's the guy who runs it. he has a whole staff. they're looking at the notion of a conflict of interest at some point between the fed itself which pays the salary of the office of inspector general. that is something that has

equities first the post fed surge. ftse 100 up 3.5% today. >> you were supposed to do that in 30 seconds. that was like a 60 second hit right there. >> i just kept going. >> here's another chart you may want to focus on today and that's amazon. they may be one step closer to using drones to deliver them to your doorstep. landon has the latest. >> good morning to you. the faa has granted approval to test this experimental delivery drone outdoors in the home state of washington but that comes with several restrictions. amazon can only conduct points at 400 feet above the ground or lower during daylight hours. the drone must stay within sight of the pilot or observer and the person flying the drone must have a private pilot's license and they must provide data on hardware and software malfunctions. they want to make deliveries within 30 minutes to sites within ten minutes of a warehouse as part of a service called prime air. drones can fly at speeds of 50 miles or 80 kilometers per hour and can sense and avoid objects. bu

and a billionaire investor has work for the fed. jeff predicts the central bank will have to reverse course if it raises interest rates this year. the cofounder says the federal reserve is intense on being a blockade and is worried the fed will repeat mistakes. in pro football, one of the biggest checks is going to a defensive back who is leaving the super bowl champion patriots and coming back home to the jets on a five-year, $70 million year. those are your top headlines. in a good day and the stock markets. the three main benchmark indexes fell marking the worst day in months for the s&p 500. it appears markets are in the mood for a good old-fashioned tantrum. mike is here and one of the catalysts come the reason we use the word tantrum, a temper can trim, a cliche from last year. is it happening again? >> the jobs data on friday as well as speeches from fed officials like richard fishel yesterday, are really having people push forward the timeframe when they think rate increases in the middle of the year toward the end of the ye

louis fed president james bullard also warned of potential volatility. but this time in the equity markets as the federal reserve gets ready to raise its benchmark interest rate. >> the temper tantrum in the summer of 2013 was all about markets being surprised that the fed was going to pull back on qe sooner than it thought. there was a mismatch between what markets thought and what the fed thought. and we do have some potential for that today. >> steve liesman has more on vice chair fisher's speech today in new york and the road ahead for rates. >> reporter: federal reserve vice chairman stanley fisher said the fed will likely hike interest rates this year but gave no clue as to what month, if he said it was june or september or some date in between or some date after, that essentially the increase will be from a fund rate to a low funds rate. >> here's how he put it. when we raise the interest rate as we probably will do one d from 0% to 25%, -- from zero to 25 to 25 to 50 basis points to an extremely expansionary monetary policy. >> reporter: as to wh

and this is not a hawkish fed. this is a fed that wants to in the fullness of time get off of zero. your point is the existential point is thatthat the ecb will be at zero for the rest of our adult lifetime. >> for forever. >> steve, against my better judgment i'm going to let you back in the conversation here. >> i don't mind taking it from them but from you -- >> let's do this anyway. if these guys are right, if we are talking about parity in the next six months how does that change the conversation at the fed's perspective? because all of a sudden you're talking about really probably getting a strong dollar. >> paul's as good as a governor probably better because he can actually talk. but a shock works its way through the system and doesn't end up creating a year over year change every year. this is the way i see it. you get to parity and as paul said it's only five dips away. it's not like it's 25-1. in december when they met, the euro was 1.24. they got back together in march and it was 1.05 or 1.06. that's a big change. so this idea of confidence in the inflation outlook is on

the fed has slashed -- $300 million. the fed has slashed their view of where it would be by 50%. they are saying rates will be 0.625%. a big move in the two-year bond yields. the dollar giving volatility a whole new meaning. the dollar index. the biggest move cents march 2009. it was hitting 10 year highs against the euro. the dollar strength was mentioned by yellen. i love what deutsche bank said. that is an indirect protest of the dollar strength. dollar down by 1%. we are just coming off the lows. lovely line, this up trend will indeed be be. oil markets, look at this. a ramp up, 3% in the oil market. six days of losses. it and then reality kick in. there is a little bit more oil in terms of supply. the reality of what is going in the commodity kick in. down 2.35%. you are seeing the oil market and gold markets move. let's check in on gold. they are tempering their view on inflation. the one thing that affects the gold market is the perception of inflation. rally yesterday. we are just kicking that higher on gold. over $4 billion wiped off the gold market in march alone. the b

so we do think the fed is data dependent, but from our vantage point right now, we think the fed willbut we don't think they're glued or anchored to that month. >> i was going to go to guy. what's your favorite dollar play? if we believe the dollar continues to strengthen before the fed raises rates or even as they raise rates what's your favorite play? >> i think the fed needed to talk down the dollar a little bit. i think they were successful. it will last a little bit longer, but i think the movement of the dollar to me to the upside is still intact against the you're o and all major currencies. to answer your question i think the tlt is the play on the back of it because i think rates are going to continue to ratchet down in the united states. if the bond market wanted rates to go higher they would have been higher six months ago. if the economy was the strongest the stock market suggests rates should be significantly higher. so the move in oil coupled with what's going on in the bond market to me speaks of deflation, u.s. rates lower. >> michael yoshikami weigh in on that. thinki

it's not just the fed in play here.he liquidity is coming from everywhere else. >> where will you make money, david? after the fed has spoken here are you going to go with a growth strategy the cyclicals in this case or will you be a little more defensive since they're going to keep rates lower? would you go with those that benefit from low rates like utilities that have been so strong this year otherwise? where are you going to go here? >> i think you still want to be in the sectors that have the earnings visibility. so i would say, you know, this health care bill notwithstanding the fact that the group is expensive, yes, it does. does technology fit the bill? yes, it does. industrials will probably do well. i actually think that the consumer discretionary group is going to be an area you want to be involved with as well especially because wages are probably going to be stirring and that's going to spur on consumer discretionary spending. so i think that to answer the questions, those are the sectors i think with the e

the fed has a different direction in mind.lobal easing trend, is that something that is going to last throughout 2015 and drag other central banks into it? andrew: i think what has happened is more about divergence. in the u.k. and the u.s., there is an expectation that rates will begin new rise at some point. in europe, there's an expectation that rates will stay low. central banks get caught in the middle of that. in a sense, they worry about the exchange versus the euro. relatively weak against the dollar ahead of a surge yesterday. they are going to feel some upward pressure on the currency. anna: you say it is about divergence. how divergent can the usb, can the you k -- can the u.s. be, can the u.k. be? andrew: i don't think it is the u.s. being de-coupled from the global economy, in the sense that the u.s. economy is growing reasonably well. other parts of the global economy are growing reasonably well. the global economy is generally getting a boost from low oil prices. there is a spectrum. the u.s. and the u.k. at the