fed funds are zero.low and we're arguing for midland or high or punitive rates. we're arguing for low rates, very different from zero. >> bob doll, david kelly, guys appreciate it. see you soon. >>> we are not anywhere close to being done. we've got more big money reaction from the fed coming your way. bill gross and dan fuss bond titans in their own right, are going to skroen us.join us. counting you down to janet yellen's news conference. perhaps more clues on the rates and economy. ndom. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. leave early go roam sleep in sleep out star gaze dream big wander more care less beat sunrise chase sunset do it all. on us. ge

still below the feds 2% threshold -- fed' threshold. is enough intention being paid? the fed needs to watch the concurrent metrics of activity, job creation, movement and the on implement rate. inflation is ultimately going to move higher. -- unemployment rate. looking at merely domestic inflation without looking at the amount that exists around the world is difficult. which is why she has brought in global factors. greece.beyond china is still recovering a bit, but quite slow. europe is down in the dumps. japan made a bit of progress last year but is not very active. as a practical matter, are competitors are not allowing us to grow and allowing our inflation rate to gross and blue because they will dump using their currency if necessary, paying the price advantage. is it going to get worse or is it going to get better? looking at the broad macroeconomic picture, the huge oversupply of labor and what to make ait's hard case for the resurgence of domestic inflation. mark: dan talked about the domestic competitors. what do our competitors want to hear from janet yellen

very quickly, waiting on the fed, oil is a little bit elevated. let's go to the fed.s a conversation with peter cook who has familiarized himself. peter what do you hope to get out of the press conference that we will see? guest: i think janet yellen will be pressed on whether or not she feels they need to hold their fire. maybe december and maybe 2016. the thing i am most interested in is what she has to say about the outside rusher from madame lagarde and others suggesting the fed needs to hold the fire in 2016. what weight is she giving to those calls, giving her close relation -- given her close relationship with christine lagarde. tom: mr. wu was with us earlier talking about the asia slowdown. you wonder how the international economies will hold into the fed debate. guest: they are not supposed to, directly but you know that greece will be part of the conversation today. you have to touch on it in some form or fashion. not just the situation, but as we said, what is happening in emerging economies, the pressure she feels outside the economy to be very careful. s

however, fed policies do matter.are that going into every fed meeting from now on there will be an unholy volatility that could be worse than the aftermath of even the meeting where tightening is announced. both before and after the meeting may be a good time to do some buying. similarly if you were going to commit money to retirement seemingly you could get flexibility before you put the money to work. you may want to attend a fed meeting before you put all of your money in at once. notice, the bad damage comes from the fed meeting that is how it always works. at a time when rates rise you get a better chance to get income in a safer way with less risk. now for the younger people watching it should be nothing to you. you should go about investing the way you always invest. you have your whole life ahead of you, older people be aware of the higher rates where you can expect the bond and bond funds you were currently in. as well as stock funds and equivalent -- you can take hits. i would make changes now to the alloca

you're not on the fed anymore. >> if you had been on the fed, would you voted against today's policy moves? >> no, and i actually think janet handled the meeting exceptionally well. she gave a very balanced view. the fact is, this is data dependent. i have been eager to get the process started. i should tell you that internally in our deliberations as far as my interventions were concerned, it was just getting the process started. but i fully agree with something she articulated which is that doesn't mean you move automatically at every point. it means you are data dependent, you look at things, the economy's improving. we are seeing less slack in the economy. i don't think the committee should be as worried now about slipping back into deflation or even further disinflation. the trim meaning of disinflation used in the deliberations has been running with one exception for almost a year now at 1.6% to 1.7%. so we're getting closer and i thought she articulated herself extremely well at the press conference. >> we have talked here lately richard, about how it seems that various member

those professionals are here at the fed and they're waiting to see what the fed will do. janet yellen and her colleagues will be open to criticism if they start to move and people don't feel like the economy can handle it. that's one of the things they have to weigh. janet yellen has to testify not too long from now. she will have to articulate that two members of congress. scarlet: as investors tried to extract the thinking, where is the best place to look? the fomc statement just came out. not a lot of change from the previous statement. we have the new gdp forecast. 's addition to janet yellen answers to whatever questions arrived today. where would you look for insight? tim: i will be interested to see what her comments are. there are not a lot of secrets here. they are looking at the data, taking a dovish interpretation of it. i don't think there will be a lot more news. coming inncreases september and maybe two after that. i don't think there is a lot more to be revealed. they have taken a dovish stance and it's hard to conclude otherwise looking at the data. lisa,

guy: which is more significant the fed or greece? bob: i think the fed. in a statement from janet yellen, interest rates will go up, but the pace will be slow, and the quantum will be as well. i stick to my view, the fed rates will raise 50 basis points . hedge funds rates will go to 1%. the size of the fed balance sheet is important. since lehman brothers went bust the balance sheet increased 3.6 trillion. i am assuming they will hold their balance sheet to current levels. if they start to reduce the size of the balance sheet, that is something we have to watch carefully, that would be negative for markets. the statement from the fed underpins markets for the moment. i think it is interesting, coming back to the swiss bank, a number of the external stress points are either swiss bank or gold are not moving that much. guy: we will talk more about the rate trajectory. merkel is still speaking in berlin. hands -- hans was talking about the greek communication with the german people this morning. this is her putting the german point of view clearly across sh

economy is not the fed's mandate. erik: stan fisher the fed should take that into consideration. take these issues into consideration but their mandate from congress is full employment and price stability. this appropriate? carl: this is an inappropriate level of interference. now they're telling janet yellen you should have a press conference after every fed meeting. we would tell you when to raise rates. going too far. i think it may create more reason for the fed to say one and done. shiva in september. -- see you in september. lisa: i would not expect -- joe: i would not expect the fed to take the imf fragmentation too seriously. issed itsas m inflation target for years. it does not strike me -- erik: hang on a second. joe: wait till 2016, that's fine. carl: wait until -- has moved beyond jobless numbers. we're looking at inflation closely. inflation is not one nation. it is a global affair. you can't have one nation so easily attached from everywhere else in the world. carl: the fed has the dual mandate. part of it is employment. employment is a concurrent economic indicator

but that is not going to move the fed. the fed is focused on the u.s. >> all right. professoblinder, always great to see you. thank you fo welcome. >>> and now an issue the markets are watching closely. greece. the deadline to reach agreement with creditors is fast approachin and today greece's finance minister said a deal was unlikely to be reached as the euro group meeting scheduled for tomorrow. meanwhile in athens protesters to the streets for the government and against changers. >>> fed ex reported disappoint fourt quarter results today, coming in below wall street estimates. and disappointing current qu guidance. despite the muted growth outlook, the company does plan to increase capital spending by 7% to keep up with rising demand for online shopping. shares dropped today about 3%. >> tie a record fine for at&t. 100 million dollars. the federal communications commission said the tele com company misled customers about unlimited data plans. they slowed speeds for customers with those plans and failed to notify them of that practice violating an fcc rule. >>> th

the fed has to break the cycle and raise interest rates.e have a redistributionist monetary policy going on to complement the fiscal policy, keep interest rates low for the borrowers, yes, it hurts the wealthy americans with money to lend. everything i've seen out of the entire administration for seven years says it's going to be a one-way ticket downward on interest rates. there's no increase in interest rates. i find it very hard to believe we're going to get an increase in interest rates out of this group. liz: and you know what? warren buffett said the same thing, not going to happen this year. michael, i like what you said, we may not see one until after the election, 16, 17 months from now. we'll keep the conversation going. thank you for joining us. michael cox. >>> what happens to the markets? now suddenly heading closer to the flat line and what happens to your money when we see the teeny tiny rate tightening. we're joined by kevin and mark matson ceo of matson money. mark, to you first, if she hasn't telegraphed we're going to see

speaking of the fed, it's useful to look at what's happened since the last fed presser.year yields are generally up. u.s. stock market small moves up in the s&p but not good. german stock markets peaked out the second week in march. the real big rally has been in crude. crude bottomed in the middle of march and has staged a spectacular rally. low 40s into the below 60 range. there's the big move up although it hasn't resulted in a big move up in emergency stocks. what's going on with the fed? they're data dependent. let's look at the data. misses recently? industrial production, housing starts consumer spending missed but there have been some beets. nonfarm payrolls. ism manufacturing, retail sales were inline. and building permits also had a nice beat yesterday offsetting the slightly weaker numbers on housing starts. it's a bit of a wash for them. i think the fed has three problems. greece is a major problem for them. very interesting to see what they have to say about that and if they will acknowledge whether a resolution of the greek issue would make it easier to rai

is well aware of that area as we go into the fed meeting, june is theoretically in play but the fed is not going to pull the trigger, especially not ahead of the greek resolution in europe. what the fed does is the tinker with their economic effect -- assessment. they moved in a negative direction last meeting. this time they will backtrack that somewhat. they will need to adjust their growth forecast for the year. currently they are looking for 2.5 percent gdp growth area that requires the economy to grow 3.5% per quarter in the current quarter and following two quarters later this year. that does not seem feasible given what we are seeing in the data. they will have to scale that down. see howam excited to the adjust inflation. we're looking at the cpi versus tce. what do you think the fed will wind up saying about inflation? they keep saying it is transitory but the pce continues to be way down. this economy is strong enough and the potential growth is lower because you have got less labor supply and less productivity growth. you do not need 180,000 jobs per month to keep the une

the fed has advised the bank of japan. they are always telling smaller countries what to do with their economies. we should get over it. they listen though? does janet yellen say, yeah, let's talk about this? that yellent think is going to consider what christine lagarde has said it all. i do not think it will have any impact on policy, but i did not find it that ridiculous. we did wind up seeing a reaction in the bond market. year yields were up 1%. we had the 10 year up at its highest level since october and it kind of reversed. we came up from that. the yield continuing to grind lower here. there is more money into the safety from inflation space. joe: we have that crazy today move in then it faded a little bit. -- when i first saw this, i was really stunned. then i pushed over to the other side. the other point is the argument from the pew were data perspective. for the fed to tighten too soon and that if they're going to be data dependent, wait a few more months. but they are kind of right. the fed has missed its infl

we have the feds latest rate decision and statement. and fed chair yellen's news conference.l investors get new clues about future rate hikes, an all-star line jup. pimco's ceo scott mather. and bill gross of janus. just to name a few, a lot more you can't afford to miss, join us two hours on "power lunch." all here for fed day. >> we'll be there, thanks so much. >>> shares of david's tea and starbucks on the move. dom chu at the market flash desk with that. >> shares of david's tea, very much in hot water, please forgive the pun. the stock down about 20%, the canadian specialty tea retailer reported a loss in its first quarterly report as a public company. high-profile ipo this month. the company blames costs related to the poir aipo and a stronger dollar. we will say it's tough, no analyst coverage, no comparable estimates, they do say though, current quarter they're going to post a loss, that's why the shares are down. starbucks in the news, closing its 23 existing la boulange pastry shops, starbucks will continue to sell the la boulange products in its stores, but says th

she is gone from the fed now, now writing -- mr. fisher was not a mainstream thinker on the fed.elle. in your first writings, you take extremely strong issue with the idea that qe was a success. you find a lot of problems that it's setting us up for down the road. danielle: you can characterize it as a success with the financial markets. we called it quantitative pleasing bu because it pleased the financial markets so much. we will have further consequences this time around as well. i don't think we will have different outcomes. we have a bubble building -- mike: we have a bubble building in the markets? danielle: stocks are the most overvalued they have been since 1999. that doesn't help me sleep at night. vonnie: based on what metric? danielle: schiller's tenure paper valuation metric. or the stock market valuation overall compared to gp. -- gdp. the valuation measure is more overextended than it has been at any other point since the 1990's. brendan: you have to stand outside the door and wait for them to throw you table scraps. mike: spent a lot of time outside the door. brend

alix: and the elephant in the room, the fed.ve seen the balance sheet we saw and at one point, it almost hit $2000, so what happens when the rate cycle begins? >> a lot will depend on currency, we have the view that the market may be in its final phase, according to foreign exchange research. if you look at historical data, in the last four cycles, when the fed gets around to increasing rate, the dollar tends to pull back. if that happens again, but if it does happen again, it is likely to support gold. at least in the gold market, like every other market, the fed hike, when it does come, has been placed in the market, so i don't expect it will be a great blow. alix: real rates are still negative, so when that happens, coal is still an investment. >> that is a good point. it is a by no means just a u.s. centric game. alix: what is fascinating is have -- u.s. point buyers dropped off the face of the earth. long does that last, what changes that? >> there is a level of price sensitivity, even in one market. the claim market is res

fed's long run rate is 5.1%.ked the full employment level or level at which unemployment i would start creating inflation. 4.8%. a ways to go here for this panel before the unemployment rate gets low enough to cause inflation. we did see inflation in the actual inflation forecast but not a whole lot. here is the forecast this year. sorry, 59% see labor slack in the economy. the current headline rate year over year, minus 0.2%. we are seeing it as the full year for 1.2% up about 0.2%. moving back towards the fed's 2% level. it is going to be hit next year according to this panel. 2.3% is the estimate for next year. that's up 0.3% from the april survey. remember, the cpi runs hotter. what we see is that most of our panelists, median forecast is for a september rate hike. some like you just heard are forecasting a later hike. >> exactly. let's dig into this more. thank you, steve liesman. with regard to what yellen and the fed do tomorrow joining us is ted peters chairman and ceo of bluestone financial institutions,

the imf coming out publicly like this and commenting on fed policy reflects a division within the fedfrom stan fisher at the fed is going to take into consideration when setting its next interest rate, the impact that will have on non-us economies. i know for a fact that there is not unanimity on that issue. stan fisher having been the former deputy managing director of the imf makes me wonder whether the imf is channeling stan fisher in an effort to give his trend -- his position more weight in the fomc. jim: their position is consistent with his. you had a voter in charlie evans coming out and saying the fed should not raise rates until the first half of 2016. everybody is all over the place. the fed has never been in this environment on the same page with each other. i think that if the imf wants to force their opinion upon the fed or the ecb or anybody else, that is a bad precedent for them to set especially when the market was already there to begin with. they were thinking there was not going to be a rate hike in june. some think it's going to be in september. i think they are n

the fed has a domestic mandate. fed has socialized the whole notion of higher rates for almost nine to 12 months. they want to raise rates. the question is are they going to have enough reason room for that bias to be realized. i suspect it's not about inflation, it's not about jobs, it is about growth momentum. as long as they are seeing stronger growth and you can pick your number, it is the direction of growth, higher as opposed to flat or lower, that will be sufficient to get them off the theyin september alix: have said data dependence, but which data point? what ends up being more important? if you look at the data meeting,t april's fomc they had a three-month average that was negative. when they meet in june, assuming we get a 1.5% for next week, he will be .8%. the isn is moving higher. durable good orders have been a weak. for them it's really the pattern. a week, firstnt half is temporary, and when they come through the june meeting, i think these famous thoughts everybody talks about are going to be criti

i cannot believe the imf is telling the fed what to do. the fed -- they have advised the bank of japan. -- i think americans think, i cannot believe they are telling us what to do, but they should get over it. yellen isthink janet going to consider what christine lagarde said at all. i do not think it will have any impact on policy. but i did not find it to be that ridiculous. alix: we did see reaction in the bond market. -- we had the 10 -- year yield at its highest level since october. the yield continuing to grind lower. joe: we had this crazy three-day move and then it faded. imf -r point about the -when i first saw the news, i was really stunned, but i switched over to the other side. the argument from a pure data perspective. it would be risky for the fed to tighten too soon and if they will be data dependent, wait a few more months. they are kind of right. the fed has missed its inflation target for a long time. no indication that inflation is about to overshoot. i kind of think they are right. what is the rush? why hike in septembe

the feds got a break.ike so many people come on tv talking about inflation, yellen knows if the feds set country into severe recession when raised rate tooz soon. in short, the feds not going to pay attention to those who think like during the green span days that it is time to raise rates well, um because it's time. janet yellen is far more away of the impact a rate increase will have on the world. here's the bottom line bad news, oracle, guess what tomorrow we'll be focused on greece again and if talks are still acrimonious, we will forget what was said by this wise women who runs our federal reserve. gary from north carolina. gary. >> steve:caller: today is there were two companies, j & j, and roach i want to know your opinion on that. >> i can't recommend glass co smith on a take over basis because i think the company is not doing well. that means i'd rather you be in a drug company that is doing well. how about bob in new york. >> caller: booya jim bow. >> hey bob. what's up. >> caller: long time list

so the fed had to be the grown up in the room. whether the wealth is spread out democratically, level less than v half own stocks, less than half own homes. it's not 95% of americans have jobs, it is really in the 60s of the people who can or should be actually working. but even that job creation, that lower of unemployment you're talk about, what we're seeing in the last few years is remarkable wage stagnation. so we haven't created wealth or prosperity for the least among us. >> no, that's right. i mean the recovery is still far from complete. and you see that in the wage numbers you just referenced. i mean sort of nominal wage growth not even adjusted for inflation is running just over 2%, been that way for the past two years, not a lot of pickup i'm firmly convinced it would have been worse had the fed not have done what it did. the monetary response to the crisis aftermath is it's just kind of uncertain about how much of an effect it had and it's a pretty uncertain tool so again it is not the optimal response. i would have ha

should the fed delay the cycle?it start in september, or should it wait because of the greek crisis? some americans are worried about this. the u.s. treasury secretary phoning alexis the press warning he needs to get serious about some of the reforms. -- alexis tsipras. we have a number of speakers in the spotlight. the ecb will meet to talk about emergency liquidity assistance. will the greek banks continue to make the grade to be allowed to have that emergency assistance? we get that decision from the federal reserve followed by a press conference from janet yellen. and then madame lagarde will speak later. this a day after tsipras said the emf bears critical responsibility for the situation. a big day, and that paves the way for the meeting we have tomorrow and luxembourg. tomorrow he will put that in perspective. let's begin with the greek story. the pensions are -- tensions are rising as the deadline to find a solution to the debt crisis rises. our international correspondent joins us from berlin. how has it ts

number one, everybody, when will the fed raise rates? i don't know but we could find out today at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. note that janet yellen will not tell us when the fed raises rates but we will get an idea when she holds a news conference at 2:30 p.m. and i will say this to everybody out there -- please, whatever you do -- stephanie: just whisper it to me. erik: do not say all eyes on the federal reserve. stephanie: why not? erik: because not all eyes are on the federal reserve. our eyes but not all eyes in the financial market. i urge you folks. stephanie: i will give you number 2 -- let's put all eyes on opec. a slump in revenue. last year, petroleum exports plunged below one trillion for the first time since 2010. this is according to opec's annual report. we are kind of stating the obvious. erik: we are stating the obvious, but this is the tension point between opec. saudi arabia once prices to drive out show producers and the impact, of course, is that it reduces revenues for the likes of iran. russia, venezuela, the countries

a war and come you are focused on the fed. lauren: absolutely, sandra appeared how many hikes will receive this year? train to nicole, you are looking at the battle with the fed. nicole: metlife taking on the government about its designation too big to fail. maria bartiromo will cover that. sandra: first is an breaking news. major floods in texas as the remnants of tropical storm bill move across the state. is it expect it the same region that was hit by the deadly floods during memorial day weekend. some parts of the state could see up to 12 inches of rain. forecasters say the system will generate intense rain and eastern half of texas and oklahoma, missouri as well as arkansas in coming days. the golden state warriors are nba champs. they clinched the title, beating cleveland cavaliers 10521097 -- 197. andrÉ was named series mvp. he and beth curry had 25 points each and defeated lebron james for 32 points for the cavs. federal reserve policy makers wrapping up their two-day meeting today. lauren has three things to watch. la

the s&p clawing its way higher after the fed announcement, after fed chair janet yellen was speaking. point out at one point the dow jones industrial average rose as much as 93 points off that high, but still finishing about 30 points higher for the day. we have oracle earnings crossing right now. julie hyman has those numbers. julie: it looks like the earnings-per-share coming in well below analysts estimate. $.87 is what analysts had been anticipating. adjusted

it's all about the fed. european equities treading water as they anticipate further guidance on when the fed will raise rates and how much of a threat greece is to the global economy. >> raising a glass to the u.s. after strong demand helps offset weakness in china. shares in the french drinks maker shooting higher after hikes it's dividend. >> ceo of russia says russia's con move should not put off investors. >> you cannot say things like that happen only in russia and don't happen anywhere else in the world. if you go to russia things are going to be bad for you. this is not true. >> protestors gather outside as government gets ready to present a highly controversial reform package. >> let's have a quick look at sterling. we're awaiting data from the u.k. it's up a little bit in the last few minutes and the data has just come out. we're looking for the bank of england minutes and also recent unemployment data. let's have a look at what's coming out at the moment u.k. polly will not be determined by other b

we will skip plenty of fed meetings between rate hikes, so the fed is not going to be aggressive. what you want to wonder about is the magnitude and the pace, not necessarily the timing. but they don't need to be in a hurry. lisa: i do think that this week was significant from the treasury respective. we have seen the steady grind upward of yield. today the 30 year yield going the highest of the year, the highest since november. there is an increased expectation of inflation, even looking out over the last 10 years. you did see it rising to the highs of the year. there is a reassessment of inflation. alix: i keep hearing pimco coming out and saying, we are worried about rising inflation, to your point. lisa: so even if people do not expect that much by way of the fed, they are reassessing inflation. joe: speaking of the fed, bank of america came out with a note saying what asset classes are vulnerable to a rate hike. scott, what areas do you think you should avoid in terms of preparing for a fed rate hike? scott: i think what you want to do, and i will speak from the equity standp

lisa: it's not just the fed. we're talking about inflation data with economic growth improving their. when you have a strengthening dollar, that means a weakening of currencies and other places. do they have to sell their reserves to potentially bolster their currency and what does that mean for u.s. assets because a lot of their reserves have been held in u.s. assets. could this add to the weakness in credit markets in general? this is a big concern because once you get a real shift, people are concerned money is going to start flying around and it could be violent really quick. joe: one of the things that was brought up is this rising correlation between bonds and equities, so there's no place to hedge. what are people on the street doing about it? lisa: more cash allocations, people are looking for corners of markets that are not as correlated, but it is a tricky science. this is why you see record flows into unconstrained funds. the question is whether they are really uncorrelated or not. alix: stick with me.

even when the fed raises them, they will remain low on the historical standard. estimation and my colleagues at wharton, a lower discount rate means a higher average valuation for the stock market, so i certainly don't believe that this is overvalued at current levels. >> that is a key point, at what fundsre do you think the will peak once the federal reserve is at the apex of the tightening cycle? , one belief is, and here of the rare times i agree with the bill gross, we haven't disagreed over the last 5-6 years, but he named the new at 2%, fed funds rate and my own populations confirmed that. rate oververage fund the next decade will remain at 2%. it does not mean that at the peak of tightening it will not be above 2%, it could get to 3-4%. but then it will be brought down below 2%. that is when the economy softens. we will have a lower average level of interest rates, rates coulde fed peak above 2%. but it will not be the 4% that dock,w the fed has in its that it puts out every quarter in protection. valuation, is there a range that has you concerned? >> my f

what do you think the fed does and should do and we had some comments today from new york fed president bill dudly who did sound a little bit like he's ready to go, conditions are there. >> right. well kelly, i think rick is right, the fed is at a window where they could raise rates. the question is will they do it. it's not so much about the actual rate of policy. what fed numbers are most concerned about is the fallout. you hear fed speakers stanley fisher earlier this week suggesting that risk assets may reprice. it could be a volatile exit from zerp. then you had the imf chiming in. so policymakers would like to go. but they're scared of the fallout. and i'm with lawrence behind lindsey. the longer they way, the more volatile reaction they will get. >> all right guys thank you all for your thoughts on what has been a pretty interesting day for the markets and the economy. have a good weekend. >> and speaking of anticipating what the fed will do the financials leading the way today, as some of the big banks and regionals climb to new multiyear highs. it's been a different story so fa

coming up, the feds in focus. reaction to janet yellen's comments with our next guest who seems best season signs of a turnaround. you are watching "first of. up." ♪ angie: checking headlines around the world. tempers have flared in hong kong as rival groups and protesters faced off outside the territories where pro-democracy lawmakers said they would reject the china backed election plan. on vote is expected later thursday. after six hours of debate wednesday, none of the legislative council pro-democracy members say they would support the plan. the bill would allow a citywide election for the next chief executive in 2017 from a list of candidates approved by beijing. continuing and parts of southern china following record rainfall last weekend. swollen rivers have why still he and caused landslides. heavy rain also caused flash flooding in shanghai, prompting a social media storm about the poor drainage system. final testing is underway on high-speed rail. the $7 billion line runs from a city in the north from -

how do youseptember, see the fed hiking rates -- when do you see the fed hiking rates? michael: my answer is not this year. i'm still a skeptic on wages. one issue with wages, and i think this is a global did wages, how much really come down during the recession? did they really come down a lot? they didn't go down, they didn't go up, they're just kind of stuck there. they never went away all that much. this is good. the other thing about the fed's i'm still in that camp at the fed says they are data dependent. if they were data dependent, they would have hiked rates three years ago. now watch inflation -- they are not going to do that. they are scared to death of theg anything to upset credit markets, too upset emerging markets, they don't like the strong dollar, say what you will, president obama said something about the strong dollar over the weekend. nobody makes stories like that. everyone is focused on this -- we don't want the dollar too strong. they are focused on volatility in the markets. a report came out that said they are actually reducing their weight in s

when you think about what the fed cares about, the fed will give lip service to international the developments. it but that phrase in the statement of publishers ago, but it does not -- the fed cares about the financial markets. if something goes badly overseas, the fed will pay attention. it did in 1998. 2008 you could argue was a huge global meltdown. the fed is u.s. focused front and center. by the imf picking up, it did not make it that much more difficult for the fed. at, why isle look the imf talking about the u.s. now? it has never really focused on the fed very much. i do not think it has put that much more pressure on the fed. schumacher, head of global rate strategy at ubs. thanks to lisa abramowicz. prices are, oil falling ahead of tomorrow's opec meeting. mark: we will have the latest on why members are expecting to keep production levels unchanged . ♪ welcome black 2 -- welcome back to the bloomberg market day. i'm betty liu with mark crumpton. mark: welcome and good afternoon. julie co if you look at the three major averages, we are pretty much below the session. we have seen the

that is a problem for the fed.ive, no one will care with the inflation rate is. people will just assume inflation will happen. the fed may be in this situation where inflation is low and it may accelerate rapidly and they not worried about what the imf says. tom: breaking news right now and let us go to that. this is with indiana. vonnie: opec is keeping production unchanged. saudi is saying that opec decided to keep the target unchanged. oil prices are trading at $61.99. pretty exciting. it sounds like opec doesn't really have any power anyways. tom: using that several few. what is the difference? vonnie: is the cartel over? can we use that word anymore? richard: the cartel was saudi. they shocked us around thanksgiving saying that we would not cut back production. the cartel is saudi arabia in 11 other folks around the country. tom: i have to jump in. brendan: the saudi oil minister says that it was opec's most amicable meeting. eating doughnuts and jerking copies drinking coffee. the situation is not changing fo

actually dipt going into the fed statement.g, we had gotten the latest gdp were bit -- revision which had shown the weakness in the first quarter. what about the meeting before that? that was sort of, let's take a look here. this was more a classic fed day where you really see no activity . and then the big movement once the fed statement comes out, this was march 18. at that time, it says the data does not suggest a lot of growth in that growth in fact had moderated. then people pushed expectations be for when the fed would raising rates. we saw a big surge in stocks and -- higher.or 2% hot now it's look and see where it is trading today. we do not have a lot of action, though it is pushing higher going into the press conference, 2.37% is where we are now. the dollar as well. we heard earlier from joe of bloomberg news. he and lisa writing a winners and losers column going into the fed statement. the dollar could be one of the winners. it is little changed right now, saying that when rates go up, the dollar could -- continue t

it seems everyone has an opinion on the fed. the imf has waded into the debate about the timing of a rise. we are joined by su keenan in new york. this is very unique. su: a very big voice and you are correct. all kinds of investors and strategists that engage in a game, when do you think the fed will raise rates. mixthe imf to way into the is unusual but it does come as part of the annual view on what the fed economy is doing. and the market are giving his weight -- word they are giving is wait. higher policy rates could lead to market volatility with stability consequences that go beyond u.s. borders. weighing risks, we think that for waiting to raise rates until there are more tangible signs of wage and price inflation then our currently evident -- are currently evident. in other words, we believe that a rate hike would be better off in early 2016. specifically, we'd for the first half of 2016. an elegant way of saying u.s. fed, do not rock the boat. su: imf saying that they took the forecast for the second time. they are con

fed survey showing a record 60% of respondents write in saying it's past time for the fed to hike.gns that lower oil prices have produced broader deflation pressures. fed policy has overstayed its welcome at zero says john riding. leadership at the fed grappling with other issues. rebounded strongly enough from the first quarter. it also has to factor in the consequences of a strong dollar if it raises rates amid continued european and japanese easing. it's looking for that confidence. inflation is moving back to 2%. all of which combined to provide the reasons why the fed will wait at least a little longer. a day may come when the fed has the courage to raise rates when it zeros interest rates. but it is not this day. joe? >> yeah. i don't know where they will be able to draw upon the courage to go up from 0% after nine years. i hope we have some stall worth people to make that decision that could have such wide ranging ramifications for the entire world to go to 25 basis points. courage. courage. you used to say that. mie idol dan rather used to say courage before he had that nat

changes, not unusual on a fed day.ht for fun, we could look of the past couple of days when we had a fed meeting. take a look at my bloomberg wasinal there and this april 29, the fed. 18 point swing before we closed lower by about 4/10 of 1%. revised numbers for first-quarter gdp which showed not a very half picture for the economy in the first quarter. that also weighed on stocks. olivia: so many people holding their firepower, i would be interested in seeing what volume is. it is the q and a. julie: 2:30 p.m. olivia: now i want to turn to asia. the nikkei -- one big story as of the region, japan reporting this writing --de data across asia disappointing trade data across asia. , singapore, both reporting figures, both missing estimates. singapore reported a drop in shipment. japan is out of the bright spot. if you get china, india, taiwan, all these places reporting their own drops in exports. the external demand is not yet ideal at this point. one of the stories the finance pros are interested in thatmorning, here i

does anybody listen to lagarde in the fed -- and the fed?the fed will do what the fed will do and i think that fed will raise rates later in the year. that is much more dovish. i was at the event at the end of march. very few were talking september are december. we actually think it does not come until much later in the year because some of the economic data out of the u.s.. lagarde's comments come i think her opinion will do with the data will tell it to. and opec will do with the data tells it. ryan: where is god -- what is -- where is oil going for the rest of the year? jason: there is an outside risky for the next fed meeting. but the price could go back up. you look later in the year you see all the monetary policies that have been accommodative globally right now, you've got most central banks in the world either in some way adding a further accommodation or they are not removing the accommodation a policy. that gives you growth. it is not a unique recipe. that means more oil demand growth. ryan: we are seeing that demand. you talk abo

are the markets ready for a fed rate hike? it doesn't matter how long we are talking about it investors could still be caught off guard. as we had to break, it here is a look at the big interviews we have. from the institute of international finance, we will be talking with the boss of one of germany's biggest banks. he will talk to us in his first interview of the day -- stay with us for martin blessing's take on greece and all things macro. later, former european central bank board member lorenzo joins us for his first interview of the day. plenty more coming from that conference. stay tuned. ♪ anna: welcome back. it is quarter past 6:00 in london. here are some of the stories you need to know. alexis tsipras will meet creditors again today in a bid to pledge a new aid package for his country. he left the meeting yesterday without a deal and leaders said they had made little progress and no breakthroughs. the latest round of negotiation comes ahead of next year's a.m. bailout expiring -- next year's bailout expiring. he will

the s&p sort of clients way higher after the fed announcement after fed chair janet yellen was speakingthis is the second day of climbing for stocks. i should point out the dow jones rose as much as 93 points off that high in one day, and still finishing 30 points higher for the day. we do have oracle earnings crafting right now. julie hyman has those numbers. julie: it looks like earnings-per-share are coming in well below what analysts had estimated. what analysts is had been anticipating. of $10.7revenue billion is a declined year-over-year. that was expected, but the decline looks to be larger than analysts anticipated. the company is reporting it looks like $10.7 billion. the key for oracle is going to be how many of its customers are i -- are migrating to the cloud as a platform for services. it says here that the company's total cloud revenues rose 28 percent, but that increase would have been up 34%. --stant revenues were up 5% fell by 5%, but would have been up by 3%. analysts and investors were looking for a decrease based on the effects of currencies. as i mentioned, the soft

how is the fed supposed to act right now? that with a dollar that gets continuously stronger. there are many skeptics whether she can move. janet yellen will take the mic in 30 seconds. peter are barnes has the news. >> no change in rate guidance, trish, no change in interest rate guidance from the fed at this meeting. the fed continues to say that raising rates will depend on incoming economic data. after a bad first quarter the fed says that the economy is now expanding moderately. let's read the economic analysis now. quote, information received since the federal open market committee met in april suggests that economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter. the pace of job gains picked up while the unemployment rate remained steady. on balance a range of labor market indicators suggest that underout tilllation of labor resources

. >> what the investors care about is the fed and when the central bank may move on rates. today the head of the monetary fund said not so fast. lagarde said she wants to delay raising the rates until next year. and she's not alone. others express concerns about moving too soon. steve liesman has more. >> the i monetar fund not mincing words asking the hold of raising interest rate rates until 2016. saying they should raise until rates and inflation starts to rise. >> a suggestion that a interest raten wait a little and such interest rate hike can wait until 2016. forward governor hail brainerd said the economic weakness may not be all temporary. and issued caution in rate hikes. he is uncertain about whether the we tempora but there are more questions about the economy now than this time ted is looking at two criteria. first whether the job market is improving and er moving back toward the 2% target. but recent economic suggests there is a third criteria. officials are waiting to see if the economy can handle what they call rate normalization, or consistent march hire rati

a former fed president. eric: no, though i wish i were. alix: former fed staffer.hat would you do? eric: i would not hold off until 2016. domestic mandate. they have socialized the whole notion of higher rates for 9-12 months. they want to raise rates, the question is will they have enough breathing room for that bias to be realized. i suspect it is not about inflation or jobs. it is about growth momentum. as long as they are seeing stronger growth, it is the direction of growth. that will be sufficient to get them off the market. alix: they have clearly said data dependent, but which data point? retail sales and durable goods are not great. which is more important and how do you ignore the week signals? eric: if you look at the data since the last fomc meeting, they had a three month average that was negative. if they meet in june, it will be about 0.8%. durable goods orders have been a bit weak, but across everything else we are beginning to see something better. for them it is really the pattern. the week first half is temporary. these famous thoughts that every