on the fed and the economy.ur thanks to you. >>> my thanks to you, kayla. that will wrap it for the first hour. the fed decision coming right up. brian will pick it up. our finans are free to realize a plan to fit your family's unique needs. we'll listen. we'll talk. we'll plan. baird. or the freedom to choose what doctor you want to see. so if you have medicare parts a and b, consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, these let you choose any doctor who accepts medicare patients. you're not stuck in a network, because there aren't any. plus, these plans help cover some of the part b medical expenses medicare doesn't pay. so why wait? call now to request your free decision guide and find the aarp medicare supplement plan that works for you. like all medicare supplement plans, you'll be able to stay with the doctor or specialist you trust, or look for someone new - as long as they accept medicare pa

the fed -- of the fed. the fed has often been too close to wall street. but history shows repeatedly and vividly that in the case of money creation, the perils of market excess are more extreme than the risks of regulatory excess. thank you very much. >> if you had to choose between janet yellen and christina romer for a spouse to have racist, superior children, who would you choose? >> happily, i only have to choose one of them, not to be my wife. i'm happily married. >> it's a hypothetical. >> thank you. >> thank you very much. [applause] [laughter] thank you. very good, professor kuttner. now, dr. murphy, will you please call your first witness. >> yes, your honor. i would like to call johnalson to the stand. >> yea, john allison. [applause] come on, give it up, people, come on now. let's hear you participate! this is freedom fest, this is not a library. [applause] >> mr. allison, please raise your right hand and place your left hand on this copy of your favorite book that you make all of your employees read, atlas shrugged. [laughter] do you swear to

louis fed president alert said the fed should start raising interest rates.seeing this reaction in the markets right now. atant to point out we are the 1922 mark and we are still on track for a negative for the week. we did see this in the green earlier. we would be positive for that week. we will be looking to see what happens when the vice fed chair speaks. i want to show you the imap. financials have been down the most. with financials in particular, down by 2.4% for most of the day. the left over in energy is coming from transocean, up by 3.5% right now. pfizer was getting an upgrade from morgan stanley. let's head on over to commodities. over to gold. gold is jumping to a one-week high. you will remember it have been falling all week because of that jobs data. taking a look at the dollar. the dollar is falling to a two week low. you can see that plunge around eight: ready or so. lower against the japanese yen. finally another job. still below the 2% yield mark. the fed vice chair will be speaking. betty: thank you. be golden age of college may drawing to

muted on the open, nicely up ahead of the fed and slightly down after the fed.ve the composite index up more than 1%. let's look at some of the worst and best performers today starting with the worst performers, walgreens. are off sharply after the company trimmed the top side of its earning estimates range for 2015 to the mid part of the ranges $.14 below consensus at 454. investors do not like the news and the shares are off 10%. another stock we have been following all day is biotech giant reporting nice after the bell today. boosting its full-year revenue and 30e range between 30 $1 billion. it fell short of estimates of $31.5 billion. those shares are off sharply as we go toward the close. up's take a look, apple put a very strong september quarter beating analyst estimates. apple said it is expecting another record holiday selling boosted by strong iphone demand. the company offered fiscal year q1 revenue guidance that straddled analyst estimates for , delay what some called concern over growing growth. investors seemed to like all of the news quite a bit

i'm not a fed watcher.ust listen to the fed governors for these last three or five months and there are things like we want to normalize interest rates. they almost believe the current rates are abnormal. is look backl you years andt 20, 30, 40 look at the utilization with the unemployment rate. everything used to move in sync with fed funds and everything has improved but said lands haven't. they haven't moved in a normal pattern. alix: what would normal look like to the markets? our economists will look at about 75 aces weights. they don't have to do it aggressively. the vice chairman, stan fisher, has said things like the current and if it's are transitory. core cpi has a move that much but they have had to get behind that curve. i think most economists worry about that because it is a difficult these to fix. we think we are going to 2200. we have not changed our view even during that august and september shock to the market. scarlet: we started this segment talking about how deals might be getting done

changing after the fed statement, after the fed took away the commentary about being emergency.ommentary of just heard as well as things i have been reading, it is saying the fed at the very least leaves the door open for a rate increase, something the market was not pricing and. the probability being priced into futures before the statement was in the 30% range. it has gone up to 35% and you see the chart on the bottom here. this was a 10 minute lag here and i want to note that we see it bouncing around within the 49% range. the probability for the march meeting goes to like 70% or what effect does this have across management question mark we saw downward in the stock prices after this came out, most stock investors have been fairly content with the stimulus we have seen it we have seen a long bull market, it has been accommodated. we see them trading higher at two -- .2%. similar movement that we are seeing across the stocks. the dow jones industrial average down. we're seeing it across the yield curve as well in the treasury market. yields are going higher and the 10 year yie

and then there is the fed. take a look at my bloomberg what calculus the probability that traders are pricing into the market based on fed funds future. only a 4% move -- a 4% likely head of a move. to 43% in january and about 60% now for the march meeting. yesterday,er said find me those people who are pricing in the 4% length. they are not looking at the news apparently. what is interesting is that if you look in the divergence in yields between new york and here, we are continuing to see a rally on the tenure. your notes over in europe, italy turned negative yesterday for the first time. there is this divergence. julie: divergence between europe and other central banks around the world between the easing track and the amount using track. i do not think we can call it tightening here. it is just non-easing. if you look at the 10 year note here, we are seeing a little bit of a bump in yields at 2.60%. it is a pretty depressed level overall to what we have seen historically good take a look at the dollar as wel

the fed can't do it all. >> i know for a fact that kevin thinks that part of the continuing sluggishness in the sixth or seventh year of a recovery is because of the fed not their -- >> no, i don't really see it. but i would agree that a better policy would be a better mix. the fact that the fed is the only game in town means that the fed has to do too much. the fed is being relied on too heavily. >> when you decide that you're going to conjure animal spirits and hopefully the underlying economy catches up with the asset -- the price of assets going up from easy money, i understand that rationale, but you must think in the back of your mind that some people are doing things, taking risks and there's no way to gauge how much, how big, whether that comes home to roost in some horrific way. >> financial instability after what we've been through is a huge concern. fed is very, very engaged in this. under my chairmanship the fed restructured itself internally and put lots of staff and resources into monitoring the

david: do you think fiscal policy has helped the fed achieve its goals, or been something that the fed had to fight against? john: that is a big question. package, i do not think it worked out too well with the obama administration. i don't think that is surprising. we have learned that these temporary stimulus things do not have much affect. that is what i think about the fiscal policy. i do think that the unraveling of those has required some contraction. the andthink that is of these inevitability things. i do think the issue of the debt is a problem. it is a little stable now, but it will explode. the fed is affecting that to some extent. i think that is a problem. t seems to me that the fed -- sometimes there is the idea out there that we are the only game in town. fiscal policy is not working, so we have to do it. we can do it, and everybody wants you to do it, sea doing so you endi think -- up doing too much, i think. there is this kind of pressure all over the place to do something. just say, no, that is not our job, we are not a multipurpose institution, we are a focussed inst

that is the challenge for the fed. so far they have been very balanced and kept markets call read -- markets calm. gaming this out before the fed meeting, which is how would the markets react to? would they take no rate hike? we keep getting more stimulus. or is that going to be that news? markets fall after that decision not to do anything. does that show you the markets are more fragile than we thought before? josh: markets start to recover. traditionally there are expectations over time. mark: is the slowdown going to have an impact on american jobs? josh: the biggest concern i had was what we call the confusion -- what we call the diffusion index. what that tells use the breath of it job -- of job gains is shrinking. we have less well diversified growth in the workforce. that suggests we don't have the resilience we thought we did. it is something we keep an eye on going forward. betty: where are we going to get wage growth? josh: it is one of the most lagging indicators. it is a lot harder to change someone's sala

fed policy.-m that point of view, the china is still more important than the fed as far as the market is concerned. scarlet: we will get back to china in a second, but i want to go to a you said. youdo you ever -- how do view earnings reports coming out this week? s&p 500 just revise the forecast down and i think we are basically the most conservative forecast for equities. clearly, we are more concern than the rest of the industry about the outlook. and especially given that the market is tightening. many have engaged in engineering alter their numbers. it is basically windowdressing. joe: all around the world, no sign is happening anywhere that inflation is happening. if you look at europe, japan, and obviously the u.s. atyou think will look back this time frame and start to tear up the textbooks and wonder what our the central bank actually has as far as stoking inflation? david: honestly, yes. all qe has done in the past five years is forced china to leverage up in a big way. now that china n

what fed funds futures telling us. it looks like traders are betting on a move not before early next year and they will be scouring for arcane language in any minute change there might be. back to you. angie: thank you so much for that, su keenan. get more on that story and all the rest of today's market moving news and our analysis on .ur website, bloomberg.com we have all the business news from around the asia-pacific. sign up for global alerts. we have breaking news right now crossing the bloomberg terminal. cominguarter net income in at $902 million. for 885 million dollars. that was third-quarter results .or ocbc coming to macau for the opening of the new $3 billion studio city resort. robert de niro, leonardo dicaprio graced the red carpet along with james packer. it is hoped the venture can revive the fortunes of macau and .uer gamblers back revenue has slumped 36% so far this year. next, great expectations. what are economist expecting from this week's fed policy statement? we will discuss that and more when we

the fed is going to raise rates. the dollar goes back up. the fed does not raise rates.ike we have graded a new cycle of fed will, fed will not. david bloom stays with us from hsbc. global head of fx strategy. the iranian diaspora is large. now, with sanctions it to be lifted, some smell opportunity in coming home. bloomberg has been finding out more. >> if you are an iranian, you speak the language and understand the culture, iran will be looked at as the biggest front your market opening up. we do see a significant amount of interest. >> these are asked bankers who gave up their jobs in london and dubai to set up a capital firm in iran. >> we are a small group of 13-14 employees. what you see here is the market research and private equity team. post-sanctione opportunity was too good to resist. iran,ou are> compared to some of the other countries in gion, it is more developed. but this developed happen between 2007 and now. which we are somewhat nearing the. when the country was relatively isolated and not a lot of foreign investments command. >> they want to raise mon

by the way, we think people talk about fed hawkish, fed moving. think the markets applauded what is the right move today. >> i certainly think the fed should have raised a long time ago. i think there had been windows a year ago, maybe a couple years back where it would have been a good time to do it. at the end of the day, does it really impact the economy? probably not. but i still think from a risk and rewards stointd, that they are going to not be a leader here. i think they're going to wait, as they often do, and i think they'll wait until probably march at least. >> what do you think? >> i think it's going to be a hard one, because the data, you need to have some decent payroll numbers. you need to have eci to be reasonable and global markets and economies to be reasonable. so i think there's a better than 50% chance that they're going to go. but listen, it is a fed that has waited a long time. could they wait longer? certainly possible. >> i'll just push a little bit back on carol's point. i've been pointing to the 2013 example, when simila

regardless of what fed is doing. the whole discussion as to whether rates this low and the fed balance sheet this big are able to stimulate the labor market like they think it does. clearly there are diminishing returns here. >> the market reaction has not been good. dow futures down 161 points. the treasury note yield slipped below 2%. the first time that's happened since the end of august. >> interesting to see that move below. it's been flirting with the 2% level this week. a lot of tumult in the bond market. there the spread is key. bringing down borrowing costs never hurts for those looking to enter the capital markets. that's been the case for a long tim time. >> it is quite interesting, if you look at the news flow from companies, job cuts seem much more common over the last couple weeks. that seems to be the phase we're in. >> on conagra, walmart. >> caterpillar and hp. that was about 45,000. >> now reports of sprint. it keeps coming. also the dollar is getting whacked. for more on jobs and this sharp market

when does the fed move, if ever? we bring in our all-star panel, each one has a specific area of expertise, tara sinclair. >> i have none. liz: without charlie, former federal reserve chief of richmond award mccarthy, and dagen mcdowell, verbally an expert, and fox business senior correspondent charlie gasparino. is this real number? teddy weisberg just walked past, he said why does anyone pay attend shown -- attention to the numbers, they are revised. >> i think what is really surprising about this number is how low it was compared to the record job openings numbers we got from the report in earlier this month, reports that end of july we had 5.8 million job openings, we're thinking that employers are saying they want to hire but they are not filling the position, and not raising rates enough t to entities -- to entice people. liz: ward does this eliminate a rate tightening this year. >> >> i don't think so, i think it takes october off the table. they will want one more report. the big problem for the fed in delayi

the fed is continuing that as a problem but it seems to me that the fed actions sometimes the idea isut there we are the only game in town. fiscal policy isn't working so we've got to do it. the bankers are out there and their advertisement as we can do it and everybody wants you to do so you end up doing too much. i think central banks, the bank in 2009 the governor said mr. taylor my government is telling us to do the same thing as the fed is doing. can you give some ammunition so we don't have to do that? this pressure came all over the place to do something and i don't think that it was -- sometimes you say no, that's not our job. we are not able to purpose institution. >> slid his contract should very and they should also do that or just say you voted for these clowns. >> they should look at the overall economy. including fiscal policy. >> congress gave us a clear mandate and that's what we need to pursue. it doesn't say anything about we have to take the world as it is and of course we need to put all the tools we have available. obviously i would have liked a fiscal policy diff

discussing the fed nondecision. big moves by the head. -- by the fed. bloomberg "surveillance." good morning. ♪ tom: there was a debate last night in boulder, colorado. washington reacts to the debate this morning. mr. rubio did that are then good. an important fed meeting, more and orton -- more important than many thought. we are giving you coverage of that today. right now, a is this flash with vonnie quinn. vonnie: deutsche bank settling claims over a violation of u.s. sanctions. a 200rman bank with billion dollars to settle an investigation by the federal reserve and new york state regulators. the bank broke u.s. laws on dealing with iran and other blacklisted countries. a $50 billion cash pile. the korean electronics company will use the money to buy back shares. it will boost capital spending by 14%. it is struggling to cut into apple's share of the market. sony returning in the second quarter. sales of the playstation 4 soard and the movie "hotel transylvania 2" said the box office records. that is the business/. -- the business flash. tom: we a

glencore, k+s, the fed all in the mix.like a very positive open for european equities. 1.8% to the upside. 1.5% for the next. we will see you tomorrow. ♪ jonathan: good morning and welcome to "on the move." i'm jonathan ferro. just moments away from the start of european trading. glencore surges. the hong kong listing jumps as much as 72% following reports the company is talking to potential buyers for its agricultural business. vw's existential crisis. the incoming chairman warns that the emission scandal could threaten the survival of the world's biggest carmaker. asian equities rally. the regional benchmark heads for its longest winning streak in months. ahead of the open, i've got futures higher, much higher. ftse futures up 109 points. dax futures up 170 points. it seems that knows is once again good news. let's get your market open with caroline hyde. caroline: it is lower for longer. cheap cash keeps on coming. as we see that very or u.s. data coming out last week, on friday, 142,000 jobs added. well below expectati

louis: the fed is not helping.y point is the amount and anxiety is wholly disproportionate to the economic impact. the getting that move out of the way -- the first move really is important, because it reaffirms to the market that the fed can move. it takes out the notion that you will never get a fed move. is that volatility generated by the lift off debate so disproportionate to the economic impact? what accounts for it? uis: the stock market is a beauty contest. everybody knows it's important and it becomes important just because it is important. even though you're not thinking about the actual economic impact. the macro impact is minimal. joe: there is a small chance that the fed might not be able to raise rates. the mechanics are different because of the gigantic balance sheet on the reserve and a rethink. how concerned are you about that? i'm not concerned the fed would be able to raise rates if it chose to, but you have to knowledge the possibility that the world may be weaker than you think. there is some c

dependent fed is the one that reads the leaves. the fed is chased by the markets.he market does not like that. i don't think that is going to change, because that is the sort of framework that janet yellen has. tom: most of our audience understands that. give us an update. given the disinflation we have seen, given the struggle we have seen, what would be the appropriate model that ecb should follow? the same they should've followed since 2008. a good long-term strategy. we have to stop reading tea leaves. we have to stop solving the problem of the day and looking at the longer-term issues. we need to provide an environment that is predictable. we don't have that. we have one where everybody is chasing central banks. we have an environment of currency wars. that volatility is what to spike again. the only way to get away from tom: saw thesign article, the bank of italy with negative interest rates. axel merk when i look at negative interest rates, an indicator of a topsy-turvy world. how urgent is the chronic since we are in three years in the merck economics? axel

economy and the fed's response to that.'s several factors all working together and each day brings new information in one of these factors. so it's easy to see on a day-to-day basis volatility can remain fairly high. >> thank you for joining us. much appreciated. chief economist at wells fargo securities. now former fed chairman ben bernanke recalls lehman brothers. now his memoir will be published on monday. he describes the event which ignited the worst financial crisis since the great depression as a blur. squawk box has a discussion with him monday morning at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. >> the community of roseburg gathered for a vigil to honor those killed at the shooting. >> reporter: as the night sky marked the end of this dark day, candle light found it's way to an emotional stewart park. >> i had a moment this afternoon, just got emotional. >> bill johnson is an 80 year veteran of the southern oregon town and he was one of the hundreds that packed this vigil tonight. >> in a town that's this small and this tight knit i

when will the fed run out of excuses. >> the fed is not in charge of making sure investors make money, they're making sure the's financial stability is in short. that is the concern. >> they look pretty good for the majority of the committee that they will continue to grow at some point this year. our guess is december. it will have an impact on the dollar, but the fed hasn't placed a lot of weight of the impact of foreign policy. >> the exact timing of the move is not decisive for the bank of england. we will take our responsibility and will determine the timing for the start of the process of monetary policy normalization consistent with the u.k.. >> i am in favor, as soon as it is possible to normalize what we do with monetary policy. us, but is ahead of let's not postpone it. it is the right time. >> the fact is, america's recovery is anemic. i think they did the right thing. jonathan: let's could the investors take now, we're joined by michael metcalf. michael, great to have you with us. i am waiting for the fed minutes. how close were they to hiking? it seems they weren't that c

signal a fed rate hike? the probability still trust 50% s 50%.ll trump mario draghi talking up the eurozone, saying growth is returning. a propseeing oil getting higher up 1.5%. asna putting fort stimulus we get more than 2000 thousand jobs being added in the u.s.. copper is on the downside. it doesn't seem to be an obvious trend. gold is a big trend. we are set for the worst week in gold since march. want to quickly show you some stocks. air france is going to be affect the cap's this morning. they are going to have to reduce themselves. planes because14 they could not get an agreement with their own pilots. aon, waiting for them to open. saying we chancellor need to support our utilities. jonathan: thank you very much. gains across much of europe. they could be wrapping up a choppy week on a high. there wrapping things up over in a shift with juliette saly. juliette: hong kong markets came back online today after that public holiday yesterday. a look at the game we have had. over 2.5%, the hang seng rising

market players say they were pretty surprised to see a moderate upgrade by the fed after the fed dropped its previous warning on global risks and global financial and economic risks exposed from the u.s. economy for the latest statement. so the unexpectedly hawkish stance rattled the markets and we may see volatility and so far, we are seeing some gains here in tokyo, ramin. >> mai, there's a potential for a rate hike likely for this year according to a lot of analysts we're speaking to. how is the dollar playing out today with some of the key players? >> with the potential hike back in play, the dollar really soared while the euro dropped and the euro slipped below a dollar and one level and it is still below a two and a half-month low and the monetary policies between the european central bank appears to be growing even wider. the dollar rose against the yen, but not as much as compared to the euro as we're facing the bank of japan tomorrow. the market will likely move on the fed's decision, but we're also expecting earnings from big japanese companies like sony and panasonic. it will

your reaction to the fed.cott: i think this is exactly what the market wanted, the fed provided more clarity, they are laying the groundwork. it started the weekend after the september meeting. janet yellen piled on. the statement filed on. i feel pretty good that we will have a rate increase in december. the market wants clarity. this is providing clarity and that is in my mind the main reason why we have had this big rally off the lows. angie: it really is as if good news is good news again, that the u.s. economy is looking that it is going to be pretty resilient here despite the rate hike and the jobs forecast as well. you saw also the uptick in banks and financials overnight on wall street. didn't do well today and i do not think interest rates are going to move up -- banks did do well today and i do not think interest rates are going to move up. some were arguing that the fed if they did something in december, it would give people more confidence that the fed had higher confidence in what was going on in

we have four fed speakers on.illiams, all speaking this week, all probably speaking the same way as the fed speaker this morning did, that it is potentially still on the table for 2015. you do not want a rate height at the back drop of weaker u.s. data and pmi supports a little bit of weakness as the jobs report did things could get ugly quickly. >> markets could test another low, but on the other hand we have the kickoff of third quarter earnings season, bob. that sometimes is a catalyst for a big swing upwards. don't you believe that this time around we could be seeing better earnings? >> i think so but, again, the stock market trades into the future. one of the things i worry about right now, again, i'm bullish just not yet. i think what's going to happen is the same thing that happened in 2011, the way those lows played out from may to late july, took about a month and a half, two months for the bottom to form. i don't think the bottom has formed yet. as big as the volume we didn't see as big of a swing. it te

it tends to be the fed the started.en that next year is election-year in the states, unless the fed goes in december, that could mean the fed is then stymied until 2017. the bank would then have to say we need to do something and go first. that is something that is going to be weighing in their minds. if cc months is the wrong number, what is the right number? jamie: it could be february. murray, thank you. -- let's move on to another big story. the head of volkswagen in the united states will turn to it a congressional meeting in the united states today. affect --ion may let's go to berlin. hans nichols is in there. what did they know? hans: here is what volkswagen has said. michael horn said he was made aware in the spring of 2014 of possible noncompliance on emissions. in 2014, i was informed that the technical teams had a specific plan for remedy to bring the vehicles into compliance and they were engaged with the agencies about the process. volkswagen spokesperson said they did not know that he did not know the com

now the fed in the new language has the flexibility to hike.t doesn't mean the december rate hike is a done deal. it does mean the december meeting is a live one where the fed could hike, if the economy goes along pretty much as it's been going. so, that means the bar may not be all that high. for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman in washington. >> and here to talk more about the fed and the economy more broadly is richard fisher. he's a former president and ceo of the federal reserve bank of dallas. mr. fisher, it's always great to have you here. >> thank you. >> take us inside the meeting room over the past couple of days, and then parse that statement that the fed put out. do you put as much importance on those words "at our next meeting," as the popular press seems to? is that a clear signal that a rate hike is coming in december? >> i actually don't think there's a whole lot that's new in this statement. there was some change of emphasis. they took out this emphasis, for example, on international developments. but the chair hers

the fed has been on hold. the last time the fed raised rates was back in 2006. a little bit longer is going to be prudent for the fed to make sure their stability, not only in the u.s. employment market, but also in the overseas markets. >> tony, thank you so much. talking about that today fed meeting. the fed's announcement comes out tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. apple is out with the fourth quarter results. how big of a by will china take out of the profits? we will have a preview of the copies earnings later on. ♪ scarlet: from bloomberg word -- world headquarters, welcome back to the "bloomberg market day." we check in with mark crumpton. nationsunited condemning the embargo against cuba has one overwhelming approval. the u.s. and israel were the only company's money against it. the resolution announces the commercial, and financial boycott against cuba. it had the support of 91 countries, the highest total ever. u.s. officials say iran is being invited to participate for the first time in international talks aimed at bringing a peaceful and just serious civil war.

a look at the fed funds future confirms the fed is not anticipating any move until the first quarter of next year. joining us with more, are bloomberg stocks editor mike reagan, and the founder and research from chicago. you have been saying that the fed should have hiked rates, right? but they haven't, and they are likely not going to move. where does this -- where does this leave the market? >> and control. -- in control. the thing -- the thing the feds did not tell us in september is that if the market does not price it in, if the market does not expect it, the fed is not going to move. you look atnt when things like fed funds futures or the eurodollar futures and what they expect for the market. as you pointed out, they don't have a great rate hike priced in this year. betty: does a good for the -- is that good for the bulls? >> yes, it's very good for the bowls. -- bulls. the market does not want a rate hike. all that talk earlier this month in september -- the market once the fed to raise rates, that was never the case. it was the talk of rate hikes that bothered it. it was the

liz: fed can't either. december 5th tenet. >> the fed can take credit or blame for anything.hey have done a really crummy job past year. prior to that since 2008 -- i think they should. a lot of smart people, people who know a lot more stuff about this than i do, markets would be better, world would be better, one and done off the stage. and they didn't do that. they have a chance in december to do that. if they don't do that, they still have the cat tonic state. liz: have bonding session with mike jackson, autonation. >> he is very good guy, isn't he? david: you are compass mentis. good luck, mike with the mayor ton. >> thank you. liz: that will do it for "countdown to the closing bell." david, melissa, we happened you quite the while. david: you did. who knew apple was sue which -- suigeneris. thank you, mike. why did he miss out on the first vote? melissa: congress wants to impeach john koskinen. we'll speak a former irs official that the commissioner did nothing wrong. david: interesting. we're tracking a runaway military blimp over pennsylvania? have you heard about this

the fed was very aggressive with monetary policy.maybe we could have been more aggressive or moved more quickly but basically we provided the sort of monetary policy support the economy needed. but after the initial fiscal program in 2009, the congress basically went into a contractionnary mode, the sequestration which cuts spending, other budget cuts. budgetary and fiscal discipline is important but what the congress was doing was overshooting and delivering cuts at a time when the economy needed more help. one of the outcomes and results of that was with fiscal policy not being very helpful, and i would include the state opened local governments as well as the federal government, so much fell on the fed that the fed was really being asked to do in some sense too much, and that to some extent is still the case today. >> rose: i'll come back to that moment. did you use all the tools we had? >> if you go back, we never sent interest rates negative which you -- >> rose: you set them close to zero. >> yes. >> rose: you said in fact you

i don't agree with the fed. move slowly on interest rates, the idea we could overshoot on unemployment, let it go low eric and raise living standards out there like we saw in the 1990s. that's something that missed in the speech, a lot of people did not pay attention to. the heart and humility shown as well, aleving the escape hatch, yeah, raise rates in 2015, i want to get there, but if the world changes, and the forecasts are not great, and all the rigor shown understanding inflation, it can be wrong. that was a a huge escape hatch, and that's what markets are reacting to. the larger picture of the feds' job is not to discipline congress, but congress has to do their job, and the fed has a job within the mandate and law, they are doing it. >> kevin, we focus on the overnight rate that the long rate does not move, right? when people go to buy a house, the mortgage rate is based on what the temperatun year yield doing, and that yield is barely budging. i don't know if they do anything on the short end, that move

fed makes one of nervous. there are a lot of known unknowns.he data, but were not sure who owns it and where it is the system, and that makes people nervous. that is white em is d rated. for a long time, at this point in the em weakness that we have had, we've had problems somewhere. but we have not had them yet. em has been out of favor for 5-6 years. policy has been week for a long time. we have not seen meaningful issues yet. that has me confident. scarlet: rather complaining -- rather than comparing em in the past to now, what about to the financial crisis back in 2007? ben: it's slightly different. the crucial difference is the currency mismatch. asset liability mismatch, how is that being hedged? it's a crucial difference here. back to what i said earlier -- a lot of information that we don't know. naturally that makes people very nervous. they vote with their feet. doesn'tly when em normally do well with the fed rate. those of the two big worries for investors. scarlet: ben is sticking with us. road andna's new silk where ben sees the op

news, and let's not forget about the fed. two-day meeting and expectations that we were not see a change in rates. on the earnings news, we see all three major averages rising. i want to check on rates. look at the 10-year note to see what is going on there i had of the fed decision or lack thereof. you can see a little change in the 10-year yield. thisck check on w rip -- crunches the numbers from fed fund futures to figure out what the probability is -- at least with traders think the probability is we will see you rating beats. i think it was you who talk to dan mcmahon who said i want to know those people are because i do not know anyone that raise -- thinks they will raise rates. betty: he said let's smoke them out. let's talk about moving stocks. julie: aig definitely one of them. carl icahn urging the company to break itself up. shares are up by 3.5%. he thinks they should be three different companies -- a property casualty insurer, a life insurer, and one that tax mortgages. ai -- backs mortgages. theyas come out and

this is the before fed and after fed markets.une in around 2:00 and see if they say anything that moves everything around. let's show you what's going on in europe which is broadly higher like the u.s. futures are. you brought back greece. thank you. which is higher by more than 1%. >> there it is. >> it's the outperformer. >> do you think it should be there? honestly? should we have it -- >> i was surprised it was there yesterday. give it another couple of months. >> then we have to bring it back as a permanent fixure again? >> yeah. the republican candidates continue to battle for the white house. can tonight reignite the struggling campaigns of jeb bush and carly fiorina or will trump and carson remain ahead of the pack? joining us is the founding partner and managing director at the glover park group. and he is an informal republican presidential campaign advisor. we'll start with a softball. joe i assume with the dominant narrative being trump second to ben carson at this point he'll be going after ben carson in a big way to

more dovish rhetoric, the indianapolis fed president saying he is open to more negative fed rates. what do you think about that? do you think that is warranted? not think he is representative of anyone other than himself. yellen, you may recall, was asked about this, and she said we are not considering negative rates at all. he is about to retire, too. i would not make too much of that. i think the fed has pretty high resistance to going negative on interest rates. keep in mind we are not talking about more stimulus. the rest of the committee is talking about paradigms. speaking about stimulus, drum beats,s quiet morgan stanley and others. could we see qe4? you see qe4 versus the vix? freakinghis is people out at market volatility rather than fundamentals. is this anywhere in the cards for you? if we are talking about a theoretical conversation -- joe: yeah. michael: let's keep it here. if we see a big disappointment, it off thel take table. i think you we four is a last resort for the fed. i think you would really have to see material deterioration, back above 6%oing or something.

fed funds futures a push that the idea of a fed rate move until march.d today by peter fisher from blackrock. we thank you for coming in today and being with us. he is the investment institute in your director, but you were at one point a senior official at the federal reserve bank of new york. i have to ask you the fed was russell defended -- threshold dependent, then time-dependent, then data dependent which is where we are right now. why can't they make up their mind on what they want to do? you said they were late and moving. why are they not moving? >> they started on a bad qe, the forward path, the calendar and they are trying to move their data -- their way back to data dependency. i think they are having different arguments. we see it in public with voices like very summers. -- larry summers. there was a view thinking dealing in working is zero interest rates. there was another that thinks zero interest is not working. that is not a matter of degree or a question of timing. viewsare very different of whether the interest rate channel is working t

the fed lowering

fed was being asked to do too much.harlie: i will come back to that. did you use all of the tools you had? mr. bernanke: if you go back, we never sent interest rates negative. wishie: you did say you you had gone to zero right after lehman. mr. bernanke: i think we made a mistake not cutting rates at the 2008 meeting in december. the reason was the meeting was very short and it was after the lehman failure and we had not had time to reflect on it. over the next couple of meetings, we had cut rates all the way to zero and we were much more aggressive than other central banks in other industrial countries. we were aggressive on monetary policy. charlie: describe the relationship between you and hank paulson and tim geithner. mr. bernanke: three very different people with different backgrounds, but quite competent entry. -- complement three. hank is a consummate wall street guy. very energetic, always on the phone. it was important for us to be able to understand what is going on in the markets. i was the academic, a quiet

disagreement and the sort of congeniality of the fed. if they don't go on december -- idea waiting about additional information, it makes very little sense. they really elevate the importance of inflation in the global economy and the response function. frankly that may prove to be too soon if they shift toward the brain or position. scarlet: we are going to get more into the fed and monetary policy. coming up, is the weaker dollar better for the global economy? we are going to discuss the dynamics next. alix: let's get to first word news this afternoon. with the john brennan, who may have been a hacking victim. breachedlaims to have his personal e-mail account posted documents online, including e-mail addresses reportedly from his contacts. claimse person or group to have breached an account belonging to jeh johnson. the cia has referred the matter to the proper authorities. in presidential politics at least one leading democrat thinks joe biden be too late to the party. dick durbin of illinois says he is not sure the vice president cou

the market -- you know, this is the fed has trumped technical analysis, the fed has trumped fundamentals and the job that we have is you've got to deal with the cards you're dealt. you still can't fight the fed. >> right. >> it is hard to believe that we are here so many years later to the conversation with ben bernanke this morning on squawk box. what i look about your strategy is you are picking home stocks, things relate to the housing recovery because that is a good story whether the fed does or not. >> exactly. the fact of the matter is 142,000 jobs september typically has a revision up, but the wage growth is good for those who can buy houses, not everyone can, but for those who can wage growth is good, rents are getting high and the mortgage rates are coming down as that ten year yield pushed down below 2% mortgage rates came down. i think you still have a nice run with housing stocks and products that fix up the house, all the things that go along with t we think that still has a nice run and that had a nice pull back. >> what do you think about the continued selloff in biotech,

that would add to their capital part. " let's look about the fed. the jobs picture and the fed. say about the state of things in the u.s.? a huge advocate of this low interest rate environment. our week at the end of the quantitative easing cycle, no, not at all. frederic: i am not that big of a fan of economic policy. it lasted too long. they are a good economic booster, they create distortions in asset prices. manyuch money chasing too -- chasing to less assets. at fed will raise rates here -- raise rates. we seem to think so in december. money will be available and that's where personally i remain positive. progress scenario of and improvement of the economy in the eurozone. the local commodity price is not that bad. assets this category of will be considered not that expensive. manus: you think they will extend qe in 2016. frederic: maybe a little bit longer. manus: great form. range ofd a broad issues. a great deal of tablets back in 2011 himself. he grasps the issue and message. anna: manus, thank you very much. manus with that exclusive interview with frederic oudea. .et'

there are reasons why the fed -- it's reasonable for the fed not to act in terms of raising rates. i do have tremendous problems with the communication strategy that janet has been using in the following sense, which is that they -- in september the statement said they were not going to raise. there were all these reasons to not raise. there were uncertainty in the economy. inflation was too low. was not clear inflation would rise back to levels that it might otherwise do. and to reach the target. now we're in a situation where the data has come in quite week in terms of the employment report. however speeches that janet made and bill dudley shortly after the meeting kept saying they would be likely to raise in -- by the end of the year. that's not consistent with the statement. possibly not consistent with what the data is saying. they should move away from the timing exactly in terms of a date, but actually describe the conditions under which they should tighten. if data comes in that's not strong, inflation stays low, it's completely reasonable for them not to raise rates. in th

you will have a fed hike instead of easing.oe: what you normally expect the reaction to be, we probably will not get that. maybe not bullish this time. alix: let's get to the top headlines. the latest computer model say hurricane joaquin will miss the east coast. the storm pounded parts of the bahamas. forecasters say a slow weakening of storm should begin tomorrow. the coast guard is looking for a cargo ship 33 people on board. education secretary arne duncan is leaving after seven years on the job. don't get is -- duncan is one of the longest-serving obama cabinet ministers. president obama is planning to put john king junior in charge. touching alle areas of the company. walmart trimmed its annual earnings report. it marks the largest cut it headquarters since 2009, 1 800 people were let go. joe: biotech is one of the main sectors that has gotten clobbered during this bout of volatility. alix: the index has fallen more than 20% since july. seeing a rebound. buy tom is that you should the biotech floor. you are bullish. why?

the fed is affecting that to some extent. it seems to me that the fed actions -- sometimes the idea is out there that we are the only game in town. fiscal policy is not working so we have to do it. bank holds out there advertisement, we can do it. you enter doing too much. central banks have the same problem. i remember visiting the bank of india in 2009 in the governor said, mr. taylor, the government is telling us to do the same thing that the fed is doing, can you give us some ammunition that there was pressure from all over the place to do something and i don't think -- sometimes you just say, no, that is not our job. we are focused institution. the stimulus is contractionary. or fed should offset that say, america, you voted for these clowns? they should look at the overall economy? >> including fiscal policy, yeah. cleargress gives a very mandate about employment and price stability. that is but we need to pursue. say anything about contractionary fiscal policy. we have to take the world as it is. we need to put all the