jonathan:: from new york city i am jonathan ferro. "bloomberg real yield" starts now. coming up, u.s.-china trade talks wrap up in washington. the everything rally continues. global stocks top credit. is it time to start fading the rally? >> this is a good time for investors. >> we are running a cash balance. >> owning more cash than normal and more high-quality bonds. owning less high-yield. >> our tendency is to reduce credit risks over the next six to 18 months. on the upside in credit. towarding the portfolio high-quality treasuries. >> ultimately you have to pick up the ball. >> the headwinds, a lot of good news priced in right now. jonathan:: here in new york, my let's begin with you. it is a good question. the turnaround from the fed has been sharp, it is difficult for to see how quickly markets need to re-price. in picture sense, i am cautious with risk assets because at the end of the cycle 18 months away, i know the next big move will be a risk off move. are dealingis we with investor psychology and the behavior of the federal reserve being independent. they

alix: i'm jonathan ferro. from new york city, bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. -- jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. from new york city, bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ coming up, trade talks wrapping up in beijing. president xi hailing great progress. looking to stabilize further signs of slowing growth. chinese credit surges, and struggling to get a read on the u.s. economy. small cracks begin to emerge. we begin with a big issue, struggling to get a clear read on the u.s. economy. >> i wouldn't take too much based on one data point. >> it is one month of data. >> it will depend on how the economic data evolves. >> we don't even know the data yet because of the shutdown. >> what's interesting about the u.s. economy -- >> given the bad news. >> there was no silver lining. >> the first time we are starting to see a fading from the tax cut boost. >> i count this as an anomalous data point and i don't think it is consistent. >> it is very possible that we continue to have strong growth in the u.s.

i am jonathan ferro, bloomberg real yield starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, hopes are high as.s.-china trade talks wrap up in washington. no sign of testing the federal reserve patients anytime soon. and local stocks mount up and credit cranks tighter. we begin with the big issue, is it time to start fading the rally? >> this is a good time to do risk. >> we are running cash balances. >> owning more cash than normal, more high-quality bonds. high-yield, less levered companies. >> our tendency is to continue to reduce credit risk over the next 18 months. >> into more bonds right now. >> there is cash on the outside and credit. >> halting the portfolio towards high quality treasuries. in group that's been great -- investment grade corporate funds. have -- market has priced and a lot of good news. jonathan: joining me around the .able, our guests let's begin with you. is it time to fade the strength? >> the good question. the turnaround from the fed has been so rapid and sharp and stark, i think it's difficult to catch our breath in terms of how quickly markets have moved to repr

jonathan: from new york city, worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg real yield starts now. coming up, u.s.-china trade talks ramp-up in washington. little sign of anything testing the federal reserve's patients anytime soon. credit grinds tighter. we begin with the big issue. is the good news baked in? is it time to start fading the rally? >> this is a good time for investors to de-risk. >> owning more cash than normal. owning more high-quality bonds. >> time to take -- off the table. >> owning less high-yield, less levered companies. >> our tendency is to reduce credit risk over the next six to 18 months. >> there is a cap on the outside in credit. >> helping the portfolio toward high-quality, investment-grade corporate bonds. >> ultimately, you will have a pickup in defaults. >> the headwinds are the fact that the market has priced in a lot of good news. jonathan: joining me around the table is invesco advisors chief income strategist, and in london the senior investment manager at aberdeen standard investment. let's begin with you. is it time to fade to strength? it is a

s jonathan: i am jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg really old. i want to start with the option -- bloomberg real yield. i want to start with the auction block. lilly's mna, eli , tapping the investment grade market for $4.5 billion and offering as many as four tranches. in china, fortune land sold over half $1 billion in two-year bonds. it has been selling debt at its fastest pace in three years. the appetite for all things china and em quite remarkable. let's pick up where we left off. the situation in china and why we are still seeing such resilient demand for some of these chinese debt issues. >> it is pretty remarkable. it is early in the process. hasink hard currency, china roughly $1 trillion of financing to do in 2019. post the fed's dovish turn is not surprising. i don't want to make too many judgments about how successful it is going to be throughout the year, because it is going to be drip, drip, drip. the macroeconomic environment will play a part. i have concerns. share size of issuance is a concern. jonathan: the market has moved ahe

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. "bloomberg real yield." starts right now. coming up, pessimism returning, stocks ended the week lower on quote concerns and trade doubts. the german yield curve drives deeper into negative territory. january offers a big month of gains in risk assets. we begin with a big issue, is i t time to see the strength? >> we just keep seeing more uncertainty. >> it is time to sell or take chips off the table. debatings what we are now, do we ride the technicals, momentum, or start chips off the table, recognizing there is a cap on the upside? >> the fed is not going to allow the expansion to come to an end. saying that we cannot rally further, but this idea that there will be no issues the rest of the year is crazy, especially when the same people saying that said the exact opposite a month ago. >> having the optionality to take advantage of these situations. i talked to the fed ad nauseam here. very tenuous. >> have things gotten a little frothy? yes. if you look at the underlying economy, it is strong. credit spreads are tightening.

>> from your city, i am jonathan ferro. bloomberg yield the -- bloomberg real yield starts right now. coming up, pessimism returning, stocks and in the week lower on trade doubts. sentiments hours, the german juncker drives deeper into negative territory. gains in riskof assets. johnathan: we begin with the big issue. looking at this big rally we have had. >> we can't predict how this will shake out. >> we are seeing more uncertainty. >> it is time to sell or take some caps off table. >> that's what we are debating right now, to we ride strong technicals and momentum, or do we start taking some chips off the table and recognize there is a cap on the upside? >> they sound the alarm that everything is all clear. the fed is not going to allow the expansion to come to an end. >> nothing we can rally further, but this idea that the bonds are going to be low and there are no issues for the rest of the year, it is crazy, especially when the same people saying that say exactly the opposite a month ago. >> having the option in your

from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am jonathan ferro. yield" startsl now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, another month for the payrolls report. selected and a fed retreat helping junk bonds deliver the best january in a decade. coming off a record-breaking month of european issuance. $255 billion in bond sales. we begin with the big issue, another solid jobs report. >> this is a blockbuster jobs report. >> it is impressive. >> another strong number appeared >> the virtuous cycle continues. >> we are the hottest economy in the world. we are proud of it. >> this is a number great for the fed. for now, i think they can ride this out and they still will not make another move until the second half of the year. >> are they really data dependent? are they stock market dependent? is inflation ultimately going to become the only thing that pushes them off of this? >> i think people continue to underestimate the strength of the economy. by the way, it is not inflationary. >> their mandate is a full employment price stability. we are not at full employment

. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro.bloomberg real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, pessimism returning, stocks ended the week lower on growth concerns and trade doubts. as sentiment sours, the german yield curve drives deeper into negative territory. the strength of january after a big month of gains in risk assets. we begin with a big issue, is it time to fade the strength? >> we're looking at this big rally we had. >> we can't predict how this is going to shake out. >> we just keep seeing more uncertainty. >> it's time to sell or take chips off the table. >> that's what we're debating now. do we ride the technicals, strong momentum, or start taking chips off the table, recognizing there is a cap on the upside? >> they sounded the alarm that it's all clear, the fed is not going to allow the expansion to come to an end. >> i'm not saying that we can't rally further, but this idea that volatility will be low and there will be no issues the rest of the year is crazy, especially when the same people saying t

." ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg "real yield."e go to the auction block where we begin with even more european sovereign debt issuance. demand for italian debt rising 43-your notes. this comes out week after record bids for italy's 30-your bonds. elsewhere in the u.s., investors jumped into the cash. indirect bidders to the largest portion of the $50 billion sale since july 2011. soldly incorporates, at&t $5 billion of triple b bonds to help to refinance its debt. fourthtes due 2028, the most active in the investment grade market. that is where i want to begin. at&t, the largest nonfinancial issuer of corporate debt making debt reduction a top priority for this year. with us to discuss is michael vimplecom doug peebles, and krishna memani. let's start with michael. as at&t caught what you consider the new religion for the c-suite? michael: absolutely, telecom is the poster child right now for balance sheet religion. they are focused on deleveraging. at&t being one of the largest issuers, it's been given the mandate. ratings agenci

." ♪ ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro, this is "bloomberg real yield."ant to head to the auction block, where we wrapped up the busiest month for high-yield since september. january pricing more than $17 billion. the highlight of the week , trans dime posting the biggest , jump bond offering since 2016. meanwhile, the u.s. treasury with plans to issue another record-breaking amount of debt, its long-term debt issuance refunding auctions to $84 billion. $1 billion more than three months ago. in europe, what a month. the primary bond market racking up a record $255 billion in sale s in january. issuance jumping 18% versus last year, with sovereign deals pulling in massive order books. still with me to discuss is jim keenan, tony rodriguez, and matt toms. your thoughts on the insatiable demand for european debt at a time when the economy is looking worse and not better, matt toms. matt: i think ultimately with global rates looking to stay low, people are looking to stop up any rates they can. the ecb not being able to move, it means you need to get away fro

kudlow joining jonathan ferro in the open in the 9:00 hour.eport after that shutdown. to the markets, chairman powell moving the markets. with us, queen victoria street, london. this is "bloomberg." ♪ ♪ i'm a veteran and the army taught me a lot about commitment. which i apply to my life and my work. at comcast we're commited to delivering the best experience possible, by being on time everytime. and if we are ever late, we'll give you a automatic twenty dollar credit. my name is antonio and i'm a technician at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. tom: this morning, it is jobs day. across 90 minutes this morning, the american jobs report. sentiment and the state of the auto industry. in this hour, bruce kasman of jpmorgan. italy in recession, a german slow down, inches of snow in oxford. ever, the british vortex, the brexit vortex staggers into the weekend. no word if the prime minister is noted. also, there is a football game this weekend. kevin cirilli reports on the percent of america that cannot stand tom brady.

ferro added the third in the second half, but five minutes later, he was sent off for this challengee final score. olympic 800m champion caster semenya's appeal against a regulation, restricting testosterone levels in female runners began on monday. the iaaf, is attempting to limit the levels of testosterone in her body, which they claim gives her an unfair advantage. semenya is seeking to overturn the rule at the court of arbitration for sport. if she loses, it will have a huge impact notjust on her career, but the sport as a whole. reports from lausanne. you have to walk before you can run. she is challenging new regulations that will require female athletes with naturally high testosterone levels to take medication to lower the hormone prior to competing. her lawyers claim that is discriminatory. obviously the evidence will be very aided at the end of this week. so today is the start. they argue that hyper androgynous, a condition characterised by a higher value of male sex hormones, naturally. but they fear that if left unchecked, women athletes with naturally elevated testostero

we are bringing in greg ferro, what is happening? >> first off, some background.ational enquirer entered into basically a nonprosecution agreement last summer for their role in violating campaign-finance laws on behalf of stormy daniels. now we have this issue this week with a jeff bezos. and an alleged extortion threat from the national enquirer. the fact that the prosecutors in manhattan are looking at this ami,s a real danger to the publisher of national enquirer. jason: we were speaking with a jessica roth, a former prosecutor at the u.s. attorney's office in the southern district, and she said this is almost textbook what you are not supposed do once you have made this agreement. >> exactly. it is like, go and say no more. and any hint that you are doing it makes it much worse than if this is a first-time offense. if it is interpreted, they are looking into it now, but if prosecutors determine there was criminal activity, particularly in terms of a campaign-finance violation with helping the president, or an attempted extortion, they could go very heavy on th

ferro brief today, greg on the aftermath of the cohen testimony.ill be joined at some point by kevin cirilli from hanoi, because there are reports now that north korea, the government, will be holding a news conference. we will bring you the details as soon as we have them. first, let's talk about mr. cohen, what did we learn yesterday? there was a lot of heat and light. greg: it is not so much that we learned a lot fractionally, most of the revelations were out there. but i think the value of yesterday was to basically give voice to someone who has been portrayed as a liar, to put him under the microscope, and he seemed to hold up well, despite the relentless pounding from republicans.

ferro you miss the real experience is there more to be an experience here no mukalla where you'll be that is if where the more so then maybe that. all. oh you only. believe can really believe all in the world damn early. in the. ass to be. innocent of the. song quote the scene of a dozen of almost. in the all those dares it quote on a polaris unseen. seem cool yes the am is a but. certainly didn't get leave because the only result. he doesn't you know see similar stuff on poor form and can also tell us he. gave out almost and the league and cia does this and the legal system it is so even though they still says it's course us in thousand spoke up local us to see that they took. one of. the. the. elite both do you know which i believe. is if you the ultimate to kill innocent people. with him her that guzzles ended up as a media well. i mean. those you'd be mad now though. if curtis is the words there you will soon. see this and i want to write to him i want to force. the. good to be an enemy. and end up doing. that but that he didn't say anymore the. people. who are living the life so

>> i am jonathan ferro, real yield is starting now. >> coming up, hopes are high as the trade rested -- goes up in washington. in the rally continues, stocks are mounting up. issue,n with the big it's time to start trading the rallies. >> this is a good time for investors, -- if we look at our portfolio we are running cash balances. high-yield, on fewer companies. we are into more bonds right now. halting the portfolio towards high quality treasuries. the market is pricing and a lot of good news right now. table,ing me around the we have the fixed income chief strategist and portfolio manager -- in london, we have the standard investment. let's begin with you. this is a good question. rapidrnaround has been so and sharp and stark, i think --s difficult to capture nothing has really changed. we are at the end of the cycle. know that the next big move for me is going to be a soft move. the behavior of the federal in mye is very much opinion -- it's not on hold for that. we have seen this already. -- we are at the end of last year. you want to see this showing up on the fourth quarter,

he spoke with jonathan ferro about the expectation. >> the president is reasonably optimistic about thisxi sent a lovely letter, a very positive letter, in good faith. i think the talks on wednesday and thursday in general had what i call a good vibe. we are not ready to put things down on paper, we are away from that, much hard work is still in front of us, what nonetheless we did allow some new ground and so far as talking about pacific's that hereto for this chinese did not want to talk about. whether you are talking about ip after force transfer technology or ownership or cyber interference or tariffs or nontariff barriers -- we tackle the tough issues in very specific ways, which i think is a big plus. but let me put this thought on the table which is terribly important -- the march 1 deadline that remain that president trump is sticking to. timee have for quite some -- -- and i would just a to you, that is a subject which is absolutely essential to successful trade talks. manus: most people would agree to you and there are many people that don't even believe the chinese gdp numbers

julie: from new york city -- jonathan: from new york city, worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro.berg real yield starts now. coming up, u.s.-china trade talks ramp-up in washington. little sign of anything testing the federal reserve's patients anytime soon. credit grinds tighter. is the good news baked in? is it time to start fading the rally? >> this is a good time for investors to de-risk. >>

[applause] ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am jonathan ferro.erg real yield" starts now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, another month for the payrolls report. selected and a fed retreat helping junk bonds deliver the best january in a decade. coming off a record-breaking month of european issuance. $255 billion in bond sales. we begin with the big issue, another solid jobs report. >> this is a blockbuster jobs report. >> it is impressive. >> another strong number appeared >> the virtuous cycle continues. >> we are the hottest economy in the world.

jonathan: from new york city, to our viewers worldwide, i am jonathan ferro.mberg real yield" starts now. coming up, another month for the payrolls report. u.s. hiring topping all forecasts. a fed retreat helping junk bonds deliver the best january in a decade. coming off a record-breaking month of european issuance. $255 billion in bond sales. we begin with the big issue, another solid jobs report. >> this is a blockbuster jobs

jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. from new york city, bloomberg "real yield" starts right now.g up, trade talks wrapping up in beijing. president xi hailing great progress. looking to stabilize further signs of slowing growth. chinese credit surgeries. -- surges. struggling to get a read on the u.s. economy. small cracks begin to emerge. we begin with a big issue, struggling to get a clear read on the u.s. economy. >> i wouldn't take too much based on one data point. >> it will depend on how the economic data unfolds. >> we don't even know the data yet b o

marilyn, the issue -- jonathan ferro has made clear to me there is a profound demand for fixed income. why is there a huge demand for credit debt in europe? there is a huge demand because investors are looking for yields to master liabilities where they can find it. because weit space have seen with the actions of the ecb, then yields are low or even negative in some cases. with the changing demographics, when you look at the demographics in europe, they are aging and investors to have liabilities to match. we are seeing a positive tone to the market. in they in the u.s. but eurozone as well. has something to do along with the interests in the u.s. we see a huge demand for yields but only from european investors, but also from foreign investors. they have a huge demand. tom: particularly in europe, are we meeting our actual assumption? whether it is full faith in creditor, yields are low. the real yield is shockingly low. our pensions in europe making their actual world assumption? marilyn: it is difficult to get to those yields and meet those targets. they are having to diversify and

[applause] ♪ ♪ jonathan: from new york city, for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro.erg real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, pessimism returning, stocks ended the week lower on growth concerns and trade doubts. as sentiment sours, the german yield curve drives deeper into negative territory. the strength of january after a big month of gains in risk assets. we begin with a big issue, is it time to fade the strength? >> we're looking at this big rally we had. >> we can't predict how this is going to shake out. >> we just keep seeing more uncertainty. >> it's time to sell or take chips off the table. >> that's what we're debating now.

i'm jonathan ferro.open starts right now. ♪ jonathan: global equities inching lower. the optimism over u.s. china trade talks fading. chairman powell facing down congress. his semiannual testimony beginning in the next hour and elon musk facing down the sec. the regulator asking a judge to hold the tesla ceo in contempt. 30 minutes away from the opening bell. good morning. -.33% on the s&p 500. treasuries yields lower by 20 basis points to 2.63. we begin with our top story. one question as we await chairman powell. what would test the fence newfound patience -- what would test the fed's newfound patience? >> inflation. >> inflation is

i'm jonathan ferro.starts right now. ♪ powelln: coming up, patiently waited for cross current. the u.s. economy remains resilient. chinese manufacturing continues to slump. no deal in hanoi. the president walks out after kim jong-un rejected u.s. demands. good morning. futures off the lows and down .1% off the s&p 500. the euro positive. treasury yields back at 2.70. up two basis points. the economic data in the u.s. is still looking decent. the data elsewhere, not so much. >> we do see growth slowing. >> the wider environment of slowing global growth. >> we have a slowdown, we were supposed to have a slowdown. >> we were never going to say at this -- stay at the strong pace for global growth. >>

uhió'ñó jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, pessimism returning, stocks ended the week mobile on growth concerns and trade doubts. as sentiment sours, the german yield curve drives deeper into negative territory. january offers a big month of gains in risk assets. we begin with a big issue, is it time to fade the strength? >> we are looking at this big rally we had. we can't pre

thousand joining me now is the man in negotiating the deal minister of trade on foreign affairs for the ferro islands pull mickelson joins me now via skype from the capital torch on trade minister welcome to going underground so britain keen to emphasise the trade deal saying the pharaoh islands is an important trade. as well as switzerland and chile the big deals we've signed how difficult with the negotiations no i don't think they were especially difficult. we did do that in the in the beginning when the pressure was a reality we put on the framework for us it was very important that we we were nothing expecting to have a very different different agreement that we end with the e.u. but the important thing for us what that when the british that happened in that there was a hard or a soft one that we were we had an agreement because you case there were an important market for us so we had to ensure that our export was allowed to keep on going as we had been doing before we're talking about total trade for twenty seven thousand figures two hundred thirty six million pounds a year a hundred fo

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro.the open starts right now. ♪ jonathan: chairman powell says the u.s. economy is in a good place. that officials underlined global risk. central banks responding to those risk. a cautious tone from the bank of england follows india cutting interest rates. the european commission unjust into a tough the reality, slashing growth forecast. in the markets, futures -.5%. risk aversion out there. the dollar stronger again. you up -- euro-dollar 1.13. federal reserve chairman jay powell says the u.s. is in a good place. >> strength of the labor market. >> it has been quite strong. >> strong. >> a string of strong economic data points. >> a high level indicating continued expans

coming up next, bloomberg markets the open with jonathan ferro.d a five-day rally in the s&p, gm will propel the sentiment higher. the dax is still soft in europe. a broadly stronger dollar day. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. the countdown to the open starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, the president making another push for a border wall between one shut down and seemingly the start of another. and chairman jay powell delivering his first public remarks since starting at the white house with president trump. the ecb said to see note urgent need to welcome new bank loans. good morning. five-day winning streak on the s&p 500, futures barely positive. in the fx market, euro weakness again. at 1.1387. stands yields up by two basis points. president donald trump underlying the state of the economy. >> we have launched an unprecedented economic boom. the u.s. economy is growing almost twice as fast today as when i took office.