looking ahead, policies ahead, a pre-set course the next fmoc meeting is several weeks away and willlly monitoring incoming information. we will be data dependent, assessing the outlook and risks to the outlook on a meeting-by-meeting basis taking all of that into account, we will act as appropriate to support continued growth, a strong job market, and inflation moving back to our 2% objective. thank you and i look forward to questions. [ applause ] >> thank you, jay. and we do take cards as well as, so i would start just to reiterate in terms of data dependency, the importance of the bea and the bls. and it's been a long-standing interest to support those agency s. i'm curious if you could lend your support to those agencies, as well? >> i would be delighted to our work depends really heavily on getting timely and accurate data and also on being able to anticipate changes in the structure of the economy an ever-evolving economy and it's not as simple as just counting the things that are happening. it really isan important challenge that enables policy makers to do a better job for t

and the fmoc meeting. let's get more from hong kong. what is the latest? david: we are coming out of the lunch break, that is the weak spot across the asia-pacific. an ipo in hong kong in the first quarter, and hong kong activist running for election. that is leading to weakness. have a look at the other part of the market story, a move up in global yields. new zealand is up 11 basis points. australia, 10 basis points. south korean currency is leading the strength across emerging-market fx today. tracy: how are the indian markets faring? indonesia is reacting to rate cuts. markets are doing ok, 0.6% higher. for highing out with modi.ple along we will also be there at the summit, and people are looking at aramco. all of those things to be watched out for. thank you so much for that update. let's check in on the first word headlines. boris johnson will try again tuesday to get parliament to allow an earlier election. he failed monday to get the majority needed to push it through. johnson says he will submit a similar legislation and propose a date for the el

fed watchers had much to consider this week from the fmoc minutes and chairman powell's comments.traveled to texas for an exclusive conversation about monetary policy with robert kaplan. >> when you start hearing people like me and others saying i am agnostic about whether we move from here. that would tell you that if nothing changes, we are going to stay where we are. but i think we have so much uncertainty and so much policy uncertainty, i think it would be wise for us not to over telegraph where we are in the cycle. i have said though that i thought that this, this cutting we are doing should be limited, restrained, and modest, and not the start of a full-fledged cutting cycle and i still believe that. >> the question i am asked all of the time by people on wall street, what does the fed get from cutting rates? we are not suffering from an aggregate demand shortfall. how do you help? >> i do think when rates are this low, fed fund cuts, the marginal additional affect might be less than if rates were higher or credit conditions were tighter but that does not mean cutting the ra

i think if you look since the last fmoc meeting, what they've worried about has improved. >> this ise stock market >> it's purely about not repeating the fourth quarter of last year -- >> because it took the air out of the markets and so some degree -- >> i would say out of business confidence, too, maybe not consumer confidence but business confidence. >> if you could take the air out of the market without raising concerns about the functioning of markets and without raising concerns about spill back to the economy, i would say, yeah, do it but people are worried i mean, the fed is worried and the fourth quarter was a wake-up call for them, be careful because the spillbacks from the markets are significant. when was the last time you talked about the rico market >> yesterday we talked a little bit about it. >> yesterday do you feel better about -- >> no, i feel a lot worse. it's taken a lot longer to normalize. what you're getting is bits of illiquidity and that is telling you that certain sectors are over stretched very important signal there. >> it sends the wrong signal to ease >

manus: later in the week, the fmoc minutes show policymakers getting down to serious business and are on inflation. jay powell promising to offset persistent undershooting of the 2% target to run above that for a period of time. the problem is that powell may no longer head the central bank when it comes to the time to follow through on that vow. we got more with the global chief economist at societe generale. >> if we look ahead i would expect to see a further rate cuts from the fed at this stage. i think the trigger will be the economic data coming in, slowing pace of job creation, leading indicators on the pmi. i think that will feed into the decision process. if we look at just how low the fed will go, we expect that coming into 2021, we will see the range on the rate back to 00.25. one of the reasons for that is because we are building in this idea of a new undershoot-overshoot roll on the inflation side from the fed, which means it is not an exact science but it means we get about 50 basis points lower than we may have been otherwise if we were just mechanically applying the old

reserve's most ardent doves is are going once again for more rate cuts just today after one of the fmoc'snt hawks says she is not convinced more stimulus is needed. kathleen hays has this story. neel kashkari against esther george. who wins? kathleen: let's talk about what they said. neel kashkari, president of the minneapolis fed, he was arguing for 50 basis point cut. he has been firmly on this all year. important voice. today, he said the risks are rising. saggingal economy is and inflation is still far below its target. he said we should be supporting the economy, not tapping on the brakes. in one very distinct sentence, he summed up his most powerful point. >> i'm happy that we are cutting interest rates. i don't think we should have been raising them. how much more do we have to cut? i don't know yet. kathleen: let's move on to esther george who defended against rate cuts in july, in september. the argument has been for some time the economy is ok, the labor market is still strong. consumers are spending money. you don't need to cut rates unless the slowdown has deepened. if the dat

deliver when it needs to, not just on the rate that, which i think is pretty much guaranteed for the fmoc we see some announcement of qe that suggests they are getting on top of the reserves in the system? anna: good morning to you, john. let me ask you, because we just heard from the fed with guy johnson, charles evans, he said there was a confirmation of the fomc. the market is expecting too much datatober, this week already foreseen by the fomc, but markets have not responded in that way, and if anything, markets have sort of rallied in 10 minutes with the european trading session, so what is your expectation then for the next few meetings of the fed? john: well, again, if we see a confirmation of the week manufacturing data points today, especially close to 50, especially if we see very ugly payrolls, i think we are already there, about 100% for a rate cut in october, so we have to see the data, of course, but there are key focus points here, and it is the liquidity situation, what measures they are going to take to get on top of the liquidity, with the emergency repos into the end of

george says she dissented against rate cuts at the past two fmoc meetings.his comes after friday's jobs report was somewhat of a mixed bag. the unemployment rate is at a 50 year low. geoffrey yu is still with me. show they said it was a mixed muddle. on moreet is betting rate cuts. do you think we had a seminal moment on thursday with the services data? geoffrey: i would say it may you vogue -- i would say it may evoke a rethink. if that comes off the ball, we will have to reassess. it is data dependent. is it beyond easing and beyond cuts? what else is there? will be administration start to talk about some kind of stimulus again? there is talk about global stimulus here and in the eurozone. as draghi said, fiscal is the next move and that is why i think monetary policy needs to be a bit careful as well. manus: what is the biggest fiscal trade i should be trying to engineer? time to deliver a fiscal response on a global level, how do i engineer the portfolio that tracks that in the median term? -- that: global level is really important. a multiplier effect.

because of some of the uncertainty out there, and use all of that information as you walk into that fmoc table so let's take the time that we have to reserve what's going on in the economy and eric's right, the two rate cutses have not fed through into the economy yet. zblf >> i spoke to the ceo of best buy, and she said we're concerned, but we haven't actually seen a change in consumer behavior yet. what are you seeing from the consumer and are you worried it could change >> the consumer side is 70% of gdp. that consumer spending number is important and so what i'm looking for is are the weaknesses that we're seeing in trade and in maneuver going to spill over to the consumer so far, we have not seen that and our business contacts are telling us that the consumer side is holding up yeah, you're right, the data, the monthly data, there are some tweaks, but it's really what's going to happen going forward. you could think of a scenario where there's spillovers from the manufacturing weakness, the uncertainty over trade policy, that that kind of dashes the consumer but if you think about t

let's focus on the fed ahead of tomorrow's fmoc meeting. a third straight rate cut is expected, but the focus will be guidance aspowell's far as policy to come. powell has said the economy is in good shape, but gdp growth is expected to slow further in the third quarter. peterg us now is, peter: oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist, goldman sachs. what do you expect? peter: we expect rate cuts of course. our view is that would represent a pause, and there would be no rate cuts through next year. remainser economy robust, and inflation expectations have stabilized. the labor market is strong alongside the consumer. we do not think there will be rate cuts next year, and that is different from what the market is pricing. chartlet me show you a that the team and i are putting together. this is the s&p 500 against the equal weight s&p 500, and the point it makes there are five companies that have lifted the s&p 500 to the new highs by some analysis. how much are we reliant and vulnerable to disappointment from a handful of companies in th

we need better trade data or we need better trade progress fmoc tomorrow. and we also need to see earnings weech got earnings and any negative headline on trade is going to be perceived as a sell first, ask questions later. and that's what we saw today >> is that what's hurting apple? melissa mentioned it just down before handing over. was up a percent, record all-time highs down 2%. what's happening there >> i think it's silly to put that much into one headline that we saw today things are still moving forward and you heard the administration say, this doesn't mean that a trade deal is not moving or progressing forward. it just means that maybe it's not going to be done as quickly as the market had thought. it's got everyone back on their heels again. >> let's focus in on the big stories we're watching today phil lebeau has more details on today's boeing hearing bob pisani has a look at what we've learned from earnings season so far, as we reach the halfway mark and meg terrell is covering some big moves in the pharma space. phil, first to you on boeing >>

can occur and nelly when she was at the board, she developed the whole structure for allowing the fmoc to examine those imbalances and actually monitor them. >> and how much of a worry would you say today? >> well, some issues in terms of not financial debt levels being high, and commercial real estate pricing being high, but, you know, there are moderate levels that we can handle them, and it is something that we can think about partly because in theory, we would like to use the macro prudential rules to worry about the financial imbalances and mandate goals and in reality that is the hard thing to do, and because we don't have so many, and the fed did a table top exercise to have a scenario where the financial committee is in the stat, and the working paper is out in the cleveland website that is talking about those that is the tabletop, and it is really clear that when you get into the situation where, you know, financial instability issues come to play, we don't have many tools that we can actually use to address them. >> ben, there was some communication about the fed setting expe