respect for my colleagues on the fmoc we debate these issues we're trying to figure it out.hicago district, we have the most auto production of any district in the nation. that's a slightly complicated. if i had told you in previous times that they were going to raise interest rates 500 basis points in a year, what do you think will happen to auto purchase, you would say, it would collapse because auto finance would get so expensive because of the supply chain shortages, autos were already so down that this is like how injured are you if you jump from the window of your basement? not that injured so, they've actually come back some the housing side is a little more complicated because when the interest rate changes, it affects both demand and supply and you've seen that, the supply of housing for sale has been limited because people don't want to give up their low rate mortgages. so, we do need to get the economy to a stable balance. i just want to emphasize, steve, we've been doing it. inflation is down somewhat it needs to come down more but we've done it so far in a way t

course, we had factory orders that undershot the deceleration from april and also looking ahead to fmoc minutes, that come out in just a couple of minutes. >> get a little color on that last meeting our next guest isn't quite bearish yet. her year-end target warning of worrisome market sentiment, focusing on the resiliency of markets going into an earnings season that will give us some clues on how the rest of the year will play out lori calvasina is here with us on set lori, welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> you've got to feel pretty good about the range you've given the year so far. >> we've said all year -- first of all, our target was $4,100 for most of the year, we revised it to $4,250 we have basically three models that are kind of cautious and three models that are really bullish and $4,250 is right in the middle i put out a piece a couple of weeks ago saying these are the top five charts that kept us constructive in the first half of the year. one is starting to get a little bit worrisome. that's our sentiment model >> so describe that. what's your calculus in terms of how it

in a bit -- i'm not going to say they're in a bit of a box they've been saying -- only 6 of the 18 fmocparticipants think they're done on wednesday. the vast majority think they have more to go. and everything we've seen. we've had this hiccup in the commodity market that can't be ignored. and what financial markets are doing in general, right? the fed last raised rates was beginning of may financial conditions have actually eased i don't think that plays into a fed playbook that wants to see the unemployment rate go up to 4.5% from 3.6% so, that's the risk. president risk is wednesday's meeting, they're going to go 25, but i think the wording is not going to be friendly to the markets. >> i agree i think that would be worst case scenario if they saw inflation bubble back up and they declare victory too early. thank you. david rosenberg with updated thoughts from rosenberg research. >>> the ceo of imax is next. barbenheimer seeing the biggest box office debut can the movie industry bring viewers back to the theater beyond this pretty unique phenomenon we'll discuss. >>> we have piper sa

but i don't think the market's going to like this one logan making a very hawkish speech saying the fmocthe market. there's no evidence of the deterioration of the labor market logan comes from the dallas fed having run the new york fed monetary policy desk she was steeped in these issues of crises and financial crisis no indication of large lag effect, already htime to see effects and housing market looks to have bottom and rebound could cause risk to inflation. the outcome calls for more restrictive monetary policy and this is important, tighter credit conditions, she's judged, are unlikely to offset the need for high are rates again, that issue we talked about, the rebuilding of the general treasury account by a billion dollars not creating liquidity pressure the three things that might have stayed the fed's hands, lag effects, tighter credit conditions, rebuilding the treasury account, she's dismissing those as reasons not to stop. >> what about the story you just told us? >> she's not on board with that. i told you it was a story. it was something -- it was data, explains it. i know