the 10-year treasury is 13 basis points higher before the fmoc.e have seen a strengthen of the u.s. dollar which means that, all in all, the market sentiment is negative. stoxx 600 is down .60% after the weak hand over from asia. this is what we have on the board today. the only patch of green is the swiss index after the snb decided to not hike rates. they kept them on hold. 16 basis points of hikes priced in. good news for anyone who is long swiss stocks. the rest of the picture is negative in europe with the ftse mib down 1%. ibex down .70%. d dax is in focus. the cac 40 is down 1%. luxury under selling pressure with the links to china we had a couple of downgrades from brokebroker s yesterday. we have the ftse 100 which is down 1%. a huge day for the uk. i was talking through what was at stake for the bank of england decision. the market was leaning toward a rate hike and now the market is split. many say they don't need to go for the last 25-basis point hike. let's see what they do. in terms of sectors, this is where leadership is coming from

the fmoc participants talk all over the map. they have different views of the economy. they have different views of their mission. but that actually is a feature, not a bug of the federal reserve process. it's designed to bring a diverse collection of opinions to make a monetary policy. we focus on the chair, chair powell, obviously, powerful, but he's got to bring a lot of people who sit around the table to agreement. that's why it sometimes looks clunky, sometimes it's hard to figure out what exactly their message is. upcoming meeting easy. they were always going to pass. november's the contest. so we've got to look at the forecast, you've got to listen to powell at the press conference, to see which way, how far they're leaning toward restraining aggregate demand. >> vince, thank you for joining us. good to get your take. i wish one day, in my life, i could be invited in an fmoc meeting to hear that deliberation. but in the meantime, good to hear from you and others who have been there. thank you. >> thank you. >>> meantime, tech titans including mark zuckerberg and

if we missed that demand picture, that means the fmoc has gone too far.e, the stickiness of inflation is less than it thinks of t thinks. he is worried about the chaos with the election and the leading republican candidate of mr. trump and if his court case will be settled before or after what it means for the american people or society. he had questions and comments on i.r.a. he is saying it is interesting. the government and biden administration thought it would generate $270 billion of activity. it is generating $1 trillion of activity. that is fascinating. that is great news in many ways. is that inflationary? >> steve sedgwick from the shores of lake como. thank you. have a nice weekend. >>> one key word that every investor hair gro.now today and and tesla may be relaunching with the u.s. waiting to see it. only from nature's bounty. my cpa told me i wouldn't qualify for the erc tax refund, so i called innovation refunds. their team of independent tax attorneys will work with your cpa to determine if your company is eligible. [whip sound] take the fi

kashkari says the fed may have to rate rates to tame inflation and his comments come a week after the fmocof which he is a voting member, did not raise rates, but did signal they would move rates higher this year >> one thing that makes me cautious that we may not be as restick tstrictive as we think, out performing and the sectors that are most sensitive to interest rate hikes, autos and housing, indicated bottoming and starting to show some recovery that makes me cautious we may not be as restrictive as we otherwise would think. >>> open a.i. is in talks with softbank's mayo son to launch the iphone of artificial intelligence this is all according to the ft which says soft dlbank would brg in $1 billion of funding developers are aiming to create a natural and intuitive way for users to interact with a.i i saw this story, joumanna, on the way in to the show it caught my attention because it feels like in the tech space everybody is wondering the next major consumer device. it is not clear. we have just had the iphone 15 la launch nothing groundbreaking maybe the next consumer device is co

two-day policy meeting today with the economic forecast set for tomorrow afternoon jay powell and fmoc members are widely expected to keep rates on hold the markets have been bumpy since the july meeting when they hiked a .25% the s&p is down 2.5% since the july meeting let's talk about this vince larusso. vince, you are here in the house. >> great to be here. >> let's talk about this $1.6 billion in assets under management what are you telling clients about positioning and all allocations ahead of the fed decision >> we are active managers. we have been managing money for our clients. we have a team of analysts that look for opportunities we see all of the cross currents in the markets it is self serving to say that we have been doing that for 20 years. when you think of the uaw and the fed today and thinking about the dual mandate with lowering inflation and keeping labor in check. we are doing within the capital markets is seeing the consumer slowing down excess savings are depleted. interest rates will have an impact on delinquencies. we are finding sectors and themes within the ca

it is interesting the fmoc members are continuing to hold open the option we may need another rate hike. the pause is not the end. right now, bad news is good news for the markets. if we hear the lab oor markets e soft, we get a short-lived rally. i think the markets are ready to move past this. if we can get through this without the fed overtightening and turn a mild slowdown into something worse, that changes the equation. it is not all uphill. >> speaking of news, we got news from apple. chinese state officials say they welcome all devices. obviously responding to the announcement of the crackdown of apple devices in china. right now, apple is flat after that report from china. if we continue to see selling pressure on apple, does that mean another down day for the s&p? >> i think it goes farther than that, frank. i think that is the kind of concern that would affect significant portions of the s&p. the s&p is a very internationally driven set of companies where sales into china are not a significant part of the s&p sales. what is happening with apple is the tip of the iceberg of som

when you look at other economic indicators, unemployment rate, the fmoc expecting the economy to remain stronger. jay powell expected to peek in about five minutes. i'm going to go listen to that, guys. what we know now is the fed deciding to pause rates for the second time in about six feet meetings. >> thanks so much for the update. >>> still a lot of news to get to. we speak to the brother of one of the americans released by iran who was imprisoned for more than five years. we'll hear from him and get details on his reunion when we come back. >> tech: need to get your windshield fixed? safelite makes it easy. >> tech vo: you can schedule in just a few clicks. anwe'll come to you with a replacement you can trust. >> man: looks great. >> tech:hat's service on your time. schedule now. >>ingers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪ and i saved hundreds. with the money i saved, i started a dog walking business. i was a bit nervous at first but then i figured it's just walking, right? [dog barks] oh. no it's just a bunny! calm down taco. sit duchess. stop! sesame no no. archie! walter do

and that's healthy >> goolsbee is a voting member on the fmoc.g is still achievable, but he warned of risks that could threaten the fed's path. for more, we want to bring in grant's interest rate observer, founder and editor, jim grant. i say we put you in the camp of jamie dimon, neel kashkari, but maybe with more concern about how long rates are going to have to be high >> yes i noticed that president goolsbee, who just now quoted, said something to the effect that rates are restrictive but his own financial conditions index shows oddly enough that financial conditions as defined are looser than average, even after this kind of 0 to 60 and 3 -- like six seconds of a set of rate increases. so notwithstanding all of that, this is tighter, but according to the chicago fed, not yet tight. >> you are of the fb that we are in a long-term bear market for bonds, and i guess that means not just rates where they are for longer, but even potentially quite a bit higher from where they are right now >> that has been the form for a century half interest rate

and the fmoc knows it and that's why they're coy in their statement today.the chairman will be pretty coy in his press conference >> appreciate that very much see what happens this afternoon. hopefully get your take on the other side see you soon >> see you, thank you. >>> what's ahead for this market as we do await the fed's latest forecast our next guest helps oversee more than $300 billion, shifting his starategy a bit towards equities, joining us is christopher ailman head of the second largest public pension fund good to see you. since we've been talking fed and the economy give us your take on things today and the chances of a soft landing >> today is an awkward meeting, he's data dependent, watching the sta tis ikss the street is clear they're going to pause, which they should for today and then keep the cards hidden and the options open for the future. >> what's your sense of what should be done and what you're seeing on the ground to the extent you have an opinion here? >> david, i do you know, the fed only has short-term interest rates as its tool

know you don't necessarily cover the fed, but there is an ongoing debate about whether or not the fmocrice action that we've seen lately. you got reflections on that? >> yeah, i think it's difficult for the fed to completely know what's going on in the energy markets. my fear going into 2024 is that we see russia playing around once again with prices in the same way they did with natural gas last year. remember, for muchof the past 12 months, russia has maximized volumes over price in the case of oil. but that could change in 2024. and that may make things complicated for the fed. because commodity inflation tends to precede core inflation. it is the one asset class that moves at the fastest pace when you look across the broad range of price drivers in the economy. so, i think they can -- they can probably look at the first -- look through the first jump, but if prices do get into triple digit range and continue, it's going to be a lot harder. i would say maybe 95 they can look through, 105, 110, not so much. >> john, what about the dollar and impact there with oil prices. sitting at t

logan is a voting member of the fmoc. she added that skipping does not imply stopping rate hikes.ments follow those from new york fed president and fellow fed president john williams who said monetary policy is in a good place, but the central bank must keep options open depending on the d data. joining us now is head of jpmorgan chase portfolio manager. i'll not bury the lead. you think july is it? >> we think they will skip in september and as the data comes through, it will be clear that they have done enough. >> the lagging effect will become evidence. >> yes. it will become evident. we think it is evident. >> did you guys think how lucky we are? we have ready made news. general news is saying is there anything happening? there's data. next week, there's all kinds of stuff coming to give us an idea of what's going on. we're going to be there to report on it. >> absolutely. cpi and retail sales are the two big points next week where the fed will pay attention. retail sales to me is an interesting one. we have seen a lot of strength in the consumer in june and in july. you hear