in the fall of 2012, the fomc launched its current purchase program.this time explicitly tying the course of the program to evolving economic conditions. when the program began, the rate of purchases was 85 billion dollars per month, and the committee indicated that purchases would continue providing that inflation remained well behaved until there was a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market. cumulative rye grass toward maximum unemployment since the initiation of the program and the improvement of the outlook for the labor market, the fomc began reducing the pace of asset , stating last december that if incoming information committee'sorts the expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back towards longer-term objective, the committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured .teps purchases are currently proceeding at a pace of $55 million per month. consistent with my theme today, however, the fomc statement underscores that purchases are not on a preset course. t

the fomc's main policy tool, the federal fund rate, was well above zero. leaving ample scope to respond to the modest shocks that buffetted the economy during that period. many studies confirm that the appropriate response of policy to those shocks could be described with a fair degree of accuracy by a simple rule linking the federal fund rate to the shortfall or excess of employment and inflation relative to their desired values. the famous taylor rule provides one such formula. the idea that monetary policy should react in this systematic manner in order to blunt the effects of shocks has remained central in the fomc's policy making during this recovery. however, the application of this idea has been more challenging. with the federal fund rate pinned to near zero, the fomc has been forced to rely on two lists -- two less familiar policy tools. the first one being forward guidance regarding the future setting of the federal fund rate, and the second being large scale asset purchases. there are no time tested guidelines for how these tools should be adjus

they expect the fomc to soon begin raising the funds rate. fomc expressing concerns about softening in inflation, the fund rate had fallen to 0.8% and by october the forecasters expected the rate would range from zero to 25 basis point throughout 2011, as turned out to be the case. not only did expectations of .olicy tightening reseed plus, while it was roughly as -- 2010,in early 20, this came about i providing a more significant accommodation then anticipated. the followingted year. 2011, lou chip forecasters expected unemployment to fall to 7.9% by the fourth quarter of 2012. with the fomc expected to have rate byraised the mid-2012. this was associated with thanderably more anticipated. in response to signs of slowing economic activity, in august of what the 11 the fomc expressed -- august of 2011 the fomc expressed it forward guidance, stating it would warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at 2013. through mid- the following month, the committee added to accommodation by adopting a balance sheet policy known as matu

fomc's objectives is to pro meat a return to maximum employment. but exactly what conditions are consistent with maximum can be difficult to assess. tos far in the recovery and this day, there is little question that the economy has far from maximum employment. difficulties were not our focus. attainment of our maximum employment goal draws nearer, it will be necessary for the fomc to form a more nuanced judgment about when the recovery of the labor market will be complete. as the fomc state on longer term goals and policy strategy emphasizes, these judgments are inherently uncertain and must be based on a wide range of factors. the shortfall in employment relative to its level asonsistent labor market slack. and there are a number of indicators of this slack. probably the best single the unemployment rate. is now slightly more than one percentage point above the 5.2 to 5.6% central tendency committee's projections for the longer run normal rate.oyment this shortfall remains significant. baseline outlook, it will take more than two years to close.

>>what did you think about those fomc minutes? and the rally that ensued? >>i think the fomc minutes were exactly what you expectthat the fed was going to try and take back what they said and what janet yellen said after a last meeting and say that they weren't going to be in such a hurry to raise rates. but i think more importantly, the rally really came off of 1840 in the s&p, which is a level we've been trading back and forth for about the past 3 months. other than that dip down in january, 18.40-18.80 has been the level and i wouldn't be surprised to see us get back to 18.80 before it's all said and done. >>so would you call this dead cat bounce rally of another downward leg in the market? >>i do. i think that this is a great opportunity to sell if you are bearishas i am. you wait your opportunities and you look for a spot to sell.we are seeing a lot of weakness in the nasdaq and the russellwhich those are the indexes that dragged us up to the highs. certainly they can be the indexes that drag us down and help us make some lows. >>russia is talking abou

try and weight them in influence on the fomc. you can figure out where the policy path is going to be. on friday, what kind of stronger number would you need to say? , where the market is, would be good. especially if you had decent payrolls and maybe a tenth upt ick in hours worked. with aggregate income, that like the aggregate income. you can have a 200,000 payroll with wages going up that is good for the economy. >> julie hyman, how's the market reacting? >> we saw a little bit of a move upward and now we are right back to little change. if you look at the inner day chart of the s&p 500, we are, we up and then move we came right back down. feelingtill seeing this on the part of many investors. they want to continue to get that support from the fed. at the same time, if the fed is more optimistic on the economy, goodis theoretically a thing. all of that is still a cooling some indecision in the market. on the treasury front, they yields do not really move at all after the statement. really seems as though the markets are treat

>> yes, i think the fireworks will be in subsequent immediatings when you look at the fomc projections, because the recipe they have right now of having the ferred fund rate down, that's wrong. we know that's wrong. that will lead to overheating in the economy, and so they're going to try to get back to a normal federal fund rate, and watches the fomc changing their view on that. >> what could be the implications for investors then? >> what i think it means is that long-term interest rates, it's been a great four months for long-term interest rates coming down. i think they will march back up over the next two, three years, so it will be different for the next few years, but improving economy is still low rates is probably actually a pretty good environment for equity investors. i think the stock market can still move up. >> jack, are you out there? >> yeah, i'm here. i've just been waiting to jump in. we've heard this before about treasury yields moving higher. there will be a battle between a pickup and growth, but it's not inflationary growth. i'm not sure how high treasury yields h

what did you make of today's fomc meeting minutes? >> the fed delivered exactly what they were looking for, $45 billion of asset urges his, and other than that not a lot of changes. some changes to the outlook of the economy going forward, but for the moment isn't it sweet spot where they have made it are ato the market they lot thin. meantime, they are going to 10 you -- they're going to continue to wait for data to come in. they have made it clear that it will take a couple of months to get a cleaner read on what is going on in the economy. meantime, they are not being forced to have any greater ratesy on when they raise in the future. i think they are probably pretty happy with how the market has responded. there was no reaction today, which i'm sure is what they were hoping for, and they put in a lot of effort after the last fomc meeting to talk down the ratings. long-term rates and short-term rates are back to where they were before the march fomc, which i think are the rates they care about the most. even if the rates are more l

expecting the fomc to trim the monthly bond-buying program by another $10 million to $45 billion. taking a look at markets. could today's dismal gdp report be a game changeer? now let's go to peter barnes. >> the fed continues to taper, the fed continues to taper, cutting its bond purchases by another $10 billion a month as expected. the policy statement is almost identical to the last one in march except for the economic analysis which is somewhat upbeat. quote, information received since the federal open market committee met in march indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions. labor market indicators were mixed but on balance, showed further improvement. the unemployment rate however remains elevated. household spending appears to be rising more quickly. business fixed investment edged down while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. of the fiscal policy is restraining economic growth although the extent of restraint is diminishing. inflation has been run

information received since the fomc

on the dots, and so it looks like the district bank president is becoming more hawkish, but on the fomc, policy is remaining more or less the same, which is why janet yellen suggested we not look at the dots, but we do seed underlying problems and differences of opinion on the committee. >> do you think there wassing in that stood out for you, joe, that you didn't expect in the minutes? >> no, i guess, you know, yellen said ignore the dots, so steve said they had this emergency meeting on march 4th right before the meeting we had several pretty clear that they were going to drove the language, so if anything, i guess it tell me that what people say in public is pretty important. it's clear that the fed is not going to hold back people if they have certainly views they want to express. >> you talked about the regional fed presidents becoming more hawkish, but you had janet yellen in chicago last week becomes some would say more dovish. are we headed for a collision course? >> i don't think it's a collision course. the chairman controls the committee. you have the governors and the rotati

the fomc about two years ago wanted to make very clear that we have a very strong commitment 2% longer run inflation goal, and we, for the first time, issued a clear statement 2% is our longer run inflation goal, and we remain committed to it. this continues to be the case. inflation running at around 1%, at this point thomas as i mentioned, i think the risk is greater that we should be worrying about inflation undershooting our goal and getting inflation back up to two percent. of course, the fomc absolutely will be committed to protecting inflation if it threatens to 2% asersistently above well. completely clear that while monitoring the policy is very accommodated at this the needd i focused on to keep it so or to adjust it to make sure the recovery remains on track, as the recovery proceeds and healing occurs, it's obvious that we will need to tighten monetary policy to avoid overshooting our target, and we are very focused on that. this is a judgment call that the federal reserve needs to make in every expansion. we have learned in past episodes and past recoveries that overshooti

the fed and fomc statements point out with income growth accelerating, spending is accelerating we will see if that is true tomorrow and if it is you will see how sur out of the way. liz: we watch first-time jobless claims there is a sell the cme barely moved. it is almost as if the fed can't do anything at this point. >> they can't. as a previous guest pointed out people are feeling comfortable with the fed is going to do. there were no surprises today. at didn't expect any and if there were it would have been positive surprises. you won't see much movement in the rates. liz: volatility is pulling back by 1-3/4%. >> that is not a surprise either because things have been going nicely. we haven't had any external shocks with russia is on the sidelines for now. who knows what will happen? that has been the biggest driver of volatility of plate and that could come back and i don't think it will but it can. liz: khalil is below $100 a barrel. at the nymex what we did get inventory numbers for the week that were certainly bearish for prices meaning we saw better than expected build. just a c

>> sort of an average expectation as far as the fomc goes.ould deviate from plan. tapering is on track. there might be some nuances. not a spectacular type of event as far as tomorrow's meeting goes. the job numbers on friday probably represent more of the catalyst as far as changing the .ed's game plan >> what are you seeing on positioning? >> options volumes are hitting well. not seen the preponderance of hedging activity. there is not a lot of macro catalyst out there right now. there are sectors that are more hers, one of them being the higher dividend yield sectors like utilities, the reit's. these sectors have had tremendous runs. is upu, a utility etf, about 15% year to date and about 5% in the last week. other sectors like biotech -- .ech has gotten whipped around >> i want to mention bank of america. we have been watching them closely. there was some sort of mistake made on the fed stress test. they said they would postpone plans to buy back stock to raise the dividend. now there are talks that maybe the buyback will go away but the

our 2% target, and we also don't want to see inflation run persistently above our 2% target form the fomc about two years ago wanted to make very clear that we have a very strong commitment to a 2% longer-run inflation goal, and we for the first time issued a clear statement that 2% is our longer run inflation goal and we remain committed to it. this continues to be the case. so although with inflation running at around 1%, at this point, as i mentioned, i think the risk is greater that we should be worrying about inflation undershooting our goal, and getting inflation back up to 2%. of course, the fomc absolutely will be committed to protecting inflation if it threatens to rise persistently above 2% as well. and, you know, i hope it's completely clear that while monetary policy is very accommodative at this point, and i focused on the need to keep it so or to adjust it to make sure the recovery remains on track, as the recovery proceeds and healing occurs, it's obvious we will need to tighten monetary policy to avoid overshooting our target. we are very focused on that. this is a judgmen

stocks are extending gain after fomc meeting minutes are released. right now oil prices are pumping higher for a second day. let's head to james romelli at chicago mercantile exchange. why is oil rocketing higher today? >> we're seeing oil break through some key resistance levels at 101 and trading highest level in a month. reason behind this is elevating tensions in the ukraine. the u.s. is blaming moscow for protesting east ukraine. we're seeing a bit of a fear premium built into oil prices. recent highs past few months are 105. seems like crude could test the high if these tensions continue to persist. traders need to be careful getting long at this level, all of the risk in oil is tied to headlines. melissa: we had problems with cme with open outcry yesterday. how did that get resolved and what is going on now. >> cme had the halt -- melissa: electronic. the problems were electronic trading, not open outcry, pardon me, go ahead. >> yes they had a halt in electronic trading platform across two dozen different contracts. luckily for the cme it wasn

first, on tuesday, the fomc will kick off its two-day meeting on monetary policy.estimate for first quarter in gross domestic product is out. wednesday's also the deadline for victims of bernie madoff to submit their claim. activity in the sector and on friday, the big number of the week. the jobs report. one celebrity's new look caught twirt by storm this week. 51-year-old ronald mcdonald is ditching the jump suit for a blazer and bow tie. he's also got a second outfit for casual occasions. mcdonald'sç is redoing the efft to boost weak sales. the plans are to include him on social media. already trending on twitter, not loving it, pu tell us what you think. that's the show for today. i'm becky quick. thank you so much for joining me. next week, we'll be bringing you the show from omaha, nebraska, where families gather for their meeting which is hosted by warren buffett and charlie monger. i'll see you next weekend. really... so our business can be on at&t's network for $175 dollars a month? yup. all five of you for $175. our clients need a lot of attention. there

quote, the fomc is well aware that inflation could also threaten to rise substantially above 2%. rate the chance of this happening as significantly below the chances of inflation persisting below 2%. read that, guys, as her being more concerned about low inflation than she is when high inflation. scott? >> so, steve, you know, if you were looking today as a market participant for the fed chair to be as dovish as she has seemingly been in the last couple of weeks, it appears as though you're getting that today. if you put that into context with kocherlakota and his comments, we're both undershooting on employment and inflation, it would seem to be a message that the market would be soothed by. is that fair to say? >> i think so, scott. i think there is a certain amount of what was said before the speech, which is you hear what you want to hear. i don't think janet yellen is all as dovish as couldn'cotr an this idea, which i don't know if it persists in the market, that janet yellen would be quicker on the trigger of liftoff of interest rates than you thought before or then bernank

vicious out last weekend they got a speech of that team was again very president present in today's fomc minutes. it appears not only to be the view of the chairwoman of but also of several committee members that there is a long road to recovery ahead in the labor market this is going to be an ongoing theme for the financial markets however this out re stated ambition of day because the market to move stocks have been writing for the day however they took off after these comments are very dovish remarks how we solve all the snp in the dow jones average of about one point one percent in the day similarly bond interest rates i came down with the two year tenure treasury coming off about four basis points following those remarks of the near term focus is going to be up on this recovery in the us economy following the law of whether impacted data in december january and february when looking for the march data to show some improvement to the next major data point is that of retail sales on monday of next week and throughout all of next week will have an ongoing theme of the april data showin

long term unemployment remains of elevated levels we don't think the fomc is close to raising rates we think yellow signal that tomorrow. we also think that she will signal that they are watching these things very closely. and then when inflation starts to pick up as they expect certain transition to raise rates the new alexander from the morrow. thanks for much for watching. it's an overview of some of the global my kits the eye it is. more me. morning. do the historians believe the huge a treasure trove of old documents. he did in homes across japan continually an alien artifacts can become nineteen terrorists and potentially lives forever. what man is now trying to save them with the help of some i'm usually content. all japanese documents are written on washy paper made from a mixture of our fiber and water. some are hundreds of years old. passing time and attractive made them difficult to read. one man has come up with a low tech way to save these important records. a vacuum cleaner the electric blender and loss of patience. these are the tools used by traditional tiny in his miss

i like for example issued statements just a day before an fomc meeting would take place. not a thing of the pcb some unknown for choosing that there weren't very carefully and often it's up to us two tickets to read between the lines to interpret what they're saying but they weren't so simple that there today and no coat on to the fed christina mean that was pretty direct most of its one of top civil servants unto another one to get stopped. it is clear is that the button to push guarding the independence of the institution jealously is the place with pushing it out but yet what they were told that today was this issue of quilting using a mouse what christina gone was urging them to tune up for the first time that did say yes we did discuss cutting piecing a nurse to bring council meeting this morning and it won't discuss that we avoid unanimously agreed that we will use this in mind the mounties to place the place and or inflation as that the need arises but we've decided not to do it like now. ivy was also talk about the difference between europe and america in america

this approach underscores the continuing commitment of the fomc to meet team the appropriate degree of accommodation support to recovery. the tides of the label made in japan has stored the pull position high tech gear of awards. let harden reputation has taken a hit in recent years as a member of the giants of japanese industry have been forced to recall and repairs of products that are proven to be psyche has this sony it depends how those friends all making international headlines for the wrong reasons. the pair problems with their products but simply through his conduct was shameful. contending with the second largest recall ever did before the courts from hearing this the saudis were that the batteries of some of its flagship bottle computers can catch fire. and econs come under fire from thomas the broadcaster for issues with this lens is an allegedly for after sales service the company had acted quickly to meet un issued an apology on its chinese website and offered to repair or replace faulty cameras but the bad publicity has taken a toll. he touches are hovering at their lowes

. >> let's also take a look out the bond market today as a result of the fomc.uries and the reiterating that it's likely to keep the benchmark interest rate close to zero for a considerable time even after they and the bond purchase program. 2.65% one day around the 10-year note trading in a pretty tight range as it has for the last several months. for "on the markets," julie hyman. ♪

earnings reports helping to boost the major averages, and we are also looking at averages before the fomc. not a lot of changing treasuries today, but they are poised for the best month since january as the fed does meet. economists have forecast that leaders will scale back their mostly debt buying program. for on the markets, i am julie hyman. ♪ ♪ >> you are watching "bloomberg west," where we focus on technology in the future of business. i am emily chang. adam silver has banned donald sterling. >> effective immediately, i am banning mr. sterling for life from any association with the clippers organization or the nba . calle ban follows a phone captured on tape with sterling where he said racist comments, and apparently sterling confirmed it was his voice on the tape. >> you want to broadcast that you are associating with black people. i am not you, and you are not me. >> with me in the studio, cory johnson, and a former head of the memphis warriors. you have been with us all day long. you have heard what he had to say. what are your thoughts? >> i would give him a gold medal. gold for

kim.m yong it was at that meeting that the fomc opted to drop its 6.5% in employment threshold to increasemark interest rate -- industry. also on wednesday, the comcast-order cable -- time warner cable merger will come underscore me when comcast executive price president advised before the senate judiciary committee. comcast proposed $45 billion purchase still he could from the justice department and the fcc. earningsime again, season kicks off without clout leading the way on tuesday. other companies reporting about topics include retailers like bed bath and beyond as well as big banks, wells fargo, and jpmorgan on friday. jpmorgan will likely report a drop in quarter earnings. >> new stocks joining the ranks as well. what that is right. autoland don't -- auto lender ally financial will take as much as two point $7 billion in an initial public offering that for wednesday. it was rescued by the federal government back in 2008. the ipo will help the treasury divest part of its stake. they will start trading on the new york stock exchange on the 10th. under the ticker symbol ally. >> thank y

it came after the fomc minutes. one of the key takeaways is the benchmark and trust are qualitative instinct issue here. members agreed to completely remove the 6.5% unemployment target for raising interest rates ben bernanke put in a while back. they unanimously agreed the number was outdated. because we are awfully close to it writes now and the economy is not where it needs to be. so what is the acceptable jobless rate and when will the u.s. economy get there and sustain the shock of higher interest rates? joining me now, thomas perez, u.s. labor secretary for reaction. they voted anonymously to get rid of the 6.5% unemployment rate before they would heighten rates and some suggested make it so low it will be hard to hit 5.5%. what was your reaction first of all to that? >> the fed is independent, so we respect their judgment. anything we can do to continue to spur a faster pace of growth is something we certainly welcome. we have had over 49 consecutive months now to the tune of 9 million jobs. the president wou

price will start with the fomc's outlook which foresees a gradual return over the next two to economicnsistent with its mandate. while monetary policy discussions naturally begin with the baseline outlook, the path and e economy is un certacertan an effective policy must respond twistsificant unexpected and turns the economy may take. primary focus today will be monetary fomc's policy framework has evolved to the recovery through those twists and turns this framework is likely to imply as the recovery progresses. for omc's current outlook continued moderate growth is fall.e changed from last in recent months some indicators requiringnotably weak judge whether the data are signaling a material change. unusually harsh weather in much of the nation has complicated this judgment but my generally eagues believe the recent softness was weather related. the continued improvement in labor market conditions has been important in this judgment. of.7% has oyment rate fallen .3 percentage point since year.last broader measurements and those working part-time for economic fallen a bit more than the

the fomc widely expected to continue tapering its monthly bond buying by another $10 billion to standt 45 billion. it would then end the program if the schedule is maintained, sometime this fall, october is what we presume. and once the fed is meeting today, the senate banking committee is expected to approve president obama's three nominees to the fed board, fisher, brainard and powell, though the full senate may not vote on confirmation until lay may. >>> mary joe whitehouse testifies before the house financial services committee. she's expected to address lawmakers' worries about high-speed trading. while this is one of her primary concerns she's given no signals that the s.e.c. will try to reign in high frequency trading. >>> and on the agenda in the united states, the monthly s&p home price index. that's out at 9:00 a.m. eastern. prices forecast to have risen 13.1% in february. at 10:00 we get april consumer confidence. that's expected to rise slightly from last month and on the earnings front, looking out for numbers from bristol-myers, merck, adm, coach, forest labs, mgm mirage

out from china and also, of course, all the event risk coming out of the u.s., state side with the fomc, the pc core index, of course, and the all-important payrolls. the big mama of them all. ross, back to you. >> thanks to are that, sri. cautious mood may describe our guest views in a few moments. we'll get to mark farber. just before we do that, the imf says it's now cut its forecast for russian growth for this year down to 0.2%. it was previously 1.3%. it sees further risk to its russian forecast as well. it says the sanctions are hurting the russian economy. more on that. but first as i say, is a market crash just around the corner? mark farber says another financial crisis could hit markets the second half of the year and it could be worse than the one we saw six years ago. it is called the boom, doom and gloom report. >> absolutely. >> the valuations are too rich. where? >> well, first of all, you know, the markets are very big nowadays. you can have some stocks moving up and others moving down. and what we are seeing is high valuation in the u.s., particularly in social media st

think, with the latest fomc minutes showing that the federal policymakers remain concerned that growththis means interest rate tightening would be more far-fetched. we do not expect interest rate hikes until the second half of 2015. now with mr. draghi highlighting the need of policy action in order to fight against --lation, flat, as well this implies that the global monetary policies still remain growth supportive. with current tactical correction it also brings, a valuation of equity markets back to a more attractive level. >> to his point, how much of that is completely offset and russiaant when you have and the u.s. facing off, and china weighing in, saying it is deeply concerned -- russia blaming the u.s. for the latest military engagement, the u.s. blaming russia? >> this is largely political positioning. the posture put forward by the to raiseties is trying the political stance in order to de-escalation. i think the geopolitical uncertainties remain a major risk factor which still bother investors. at the moment, we still stick to a neutral stance on equities. is it going to ta

the fomc two day federal reserve meeting on interest rates, jobs numbers out on friday, consumer confidenceou. >> the fed and jobs clearly. what we have right now is a federal reserve that has been pulling back on bond buying products. there has been talk about when interest rate hikes start. when you look at what's going on in the economy and particularly the housing sector, you had a very large home builder on. we're seeing a home sector that is slowing down. i don't think the fed is anywhere near raising interest rates because this economy is not in a position to manage it. >> we're not going to hear anything in terms of guidance? >> janet yellen is steady as she goes. what is it going to take to really move the needle on this? >> my guess is we won't see any rise in rates if not after that. with respect to the president, i think it's clear there are three of four things that the country needs to do first and foremost as infrastructure. it's the fastest multiplier of gdp growth and it's jobs. second would be exports and we will talk about it later. so we need to consider it is different

>> really don't think, there is a lot of confusion following march fomc meeting presumeed a juxtapositiona adjustment some committee members moved forward their expectations for this first rate hike that is what the market was focused on. neil: that was chairman saying 6 months. >> she was refering to extended period. saying it could be 6 months, but also it could be -- other part. it could be 12 months, or 24. and fed is said that after that full employment and inflation target are met, fed may or may not remove a commendation -- acome tkaeulg, theaccommodations that statement, not yellen's comment about 6 month period but a statement convey what intentions for moptrary policy are -- monetary policy are should is dov dovish. neil: i represen respectful i de with lindsay, and i love her to death. calm down, and i wond ser that this enter the equation, is that propping them up falsely? maybe is the reality what is sinking in today? >> i agree, i respectfully des agree as well, market is falsely propped up right now with low rates there is nowhere to go for yield because so. liquidity is dr

some participants were concerned the fomc statement says the

whether it is that reversal of that big chinese carry trade, or whether it's a resumption of what the fomc is going to be doing, at the end of the day we've watched growth outperform value only three times since the last meeting. that's a seismic shift over what we've been seeing the last year. now we have they drawdowns going on with hedge funds. the market is going to do whatever wounds the most participants. biotech and internet retail was very crowded where you look at the sleepy tech areas, the ibms, ciscos, thee all benefiting because it was a crowded short for the hedge funds. they are shorting these names to raise capital. so this unwind is benefiting a lot of what we're seeing in old tech. bear in mind, guys we have a light week going on here. spring break going on. passover kicking off. good friday on friday, and then of course a four-day weekends because of marathon monday. so don't take too many cues off what's happening today, but the longer then with what we're seeing. >> kind of sad what you want there, but it is true. the market will go where it can wound the most participa

i think yesterday's fomc, the minutes, provided more clarity, which is a good thing in terms of monetary policy. they're data-dependent. it will be a slow process. i don't think they'll change rates or raise rates until at least 2015 and beyond. so that's the positive. the negative is overnight we got really bad china date that, really bad. but much worse than expected. and then we got really good initial claims numbers, right? so i think that we're trying to digest all of this in the face of right ahead of very important earnings tomorrow. that, i think, will be the real driver, when we get jpmorgan and wells fargo. >> it was a pretender's rally yesterday? the best move would have been, if you're still negative on this market, sell into that strength. >> right. >> and those who didn't do it are paying the price today. >> or if you're not negative, you still sell into the strength, because you're finding yourself in this range. we pushed all the way up close to the 1,880 level yesterday. volatility came out of the markets, got back underneath 14 last night. the mo-mo names, i'm not convi

the market obsessed over that a couple weeks ago and then today with the fomc minutes, it was, notedminutes that perhaps there was too much information in these dot plots and, i just think they maybe they should put those aside. david: jon, they tried to deny they're moved by the market or with concern about how the market will react, but don't they use market reactions as one of their mandates now? >> well, so, you kind of have to distinguish between the markets. do they care about market movements and market expectations in yes, absolutely, very much. but what they're most interested in actually is a market that we spend very little time talking about. short term rate markets. euro-dollar futures. fed funds futures. they want to know what the market thinks, they're thinking. they want to know how the market is pricing the for interest rates and they are definitely trying to influence that. you know when it comes to a day-to-day movement in the stock market or whether some hedge fund gets beaten out of some trade they overcommitted on, i don't think they care that much about that. i

we will be looking forward to of thety march minutes federal reserve and fomc. ♪ >> welcome back to "s 7:51ime in london a.m. jonathan ferro is here. the fed minutes long large on our evening agenda. >> they do. it is a bit of surprise for many people. rates might rise six months ds.er qe and -- enm -- at someooking for point you have to to start a hike in rates. at 4%.ople at -- looking the conversation around that subject is going to be quite revealing and it could give you a bit of a hawkish stance on the minutes. hawkish about the fortunes of the u.s. economy. they will drive the economy going forward. the u.k., another upward revision. >> looking ahead to this meeting , they were calling this george osborne's i told you so talk. >> that has been going on for 12 months. >> he deserves a bit of that. >> is stared he -- austerity does not work, all those lines from the imf. fundamentals, the debate will rage on. ithe will rise and deliver tomorrow. futures, it has been a funny few days since the end of last week. stocks are yesterday have taken a bit of a beating. >> futures pointin

>> jackie, they're laser focused on the fomc minutes.ere be a reiteration of the inflation target? janet yellen talked about it in the last meeting. honestly, jackie, we are seeing the crimea -- excuse me, the ukraine-russia situation, and one could argue there's more intensity over there, but is it moving gold? i like owning gold above 1,300. we saw a week ago it dipped down to 1,270 and bounced quite fiercely. right now, it's range-bound, but we'll see the minutes come out sharply. >> all right, brian, your take on the gold trade, as well. when you look at the chart, what do you see right now? >> well, when you take a look at it, and jeff mentioned the range bound, i think the range is 1,321 on the upside, 1,275 on the low side, a low put in place a few weeks ago. you'll see gold move in that range. to jeff's point, there is more fear and tension in the world. the stock market had a nasty shakeout friday and monday. so people are rotating into gold. probably the 1,321 level comes first on the top end of the range before the lower end.

percent, previous earnings helping to boost averages, and we are also looking at treasuries ahead of the fomchange in treasuries today, but they are poised for the best month since january as the fed does meet. economists have forecasted the policymakers will scale back their monthly debt buying and adam johnson is looking into insight and action. why wait for tomorrow's decision? we actually know the answer today. the action insight. this was a poll from abc news, and look at this, only 28% of those surveyed say the economy is getting better. that is not good. almost three quarters say it is either getting worse, 36%, or staying the same, 35%. you look at gdp growth, and you can understand why people are saying that. 4.1%. that is where we are here. i know 4.1% sounds pretty good, but look at this. over the past 50 years, 4.1% is way below where it has been for decades, all right, so that is the problem, the slow growth that the fed governors are concerned about, slow growth, and, in fact, the opposite of slow growth, where you start to shrink, that is deflation. the minneapolis fed presiden

at full strength, fomc has five members -- has 19 members.ut at this meeting, there were only 16 members. it is going to change the consensus forecast. a consensus move up in rates may not reflect what the fed is thinking. and the chart will tell you who the dots are so you'd know which -- so you don't know which are the voting members. so you do not know how realistic the median is. >> they are telling us not to look at the dots. what are we supposed to be interpreting out of the fed? are we supposed to listen to every word janet yellen says and assume that is where everyone stands? we just heard john explained there are a lot of different viewpoints out there. >> the key thing is that ben bernanke was communicating a simple message. we are not hiking. messages a more complex -- janet has a more complex message, that we may start hiking over the next few months. start focusing on the inflation numbers. that will be the key. >> unemployment is not dead. in the summary of economic projections, the expanded version that comes with these minutes

what is the direction that you're going to be listening for this wednesday as fomc meets?his wednesday's meeting will likely be like a nonevent somewhat similar to what they mentioned in the last meeting last month as well. we still expect the fed to $10 ue to taper by billion next month. and it should largely remain unchanged. the rates will stay low. any policy tightening would be data dependent. >> all right. so quickly then. before i let you go top recommendations against this backdrop? >> still like the market equities particularly in the u.s. our key tick here is that the conditions are quite loose and if you look at economic data say in the stumplet, manufacturing as well as employment are also picking up so that's quite positive. by the same time the central bankers are committed to pretty loose for the time being. >> all right. thank you very much for joining us this morning. up next, more arrests and a top-level resignation. the latest on the south crean ferry disaster -- korean ferry disaster. >> it's monday, april 28. these are your fx headlines. to kick things

i am looking at centering and options strategy around the fomc data.rticular is the may 2 40 half put -- trade i like in particular is the may 2 half put. 40.50 put. if we have are resumption of the january volatility, a 10% correction in the emerging markets would make that trade substantially possible. the risk is the premium. in theu can lose is $.45 event that it does not break strike. >> have you been surprised about the market reaction to the fed minutes in the last couple of days? it seemed like there was big reaction when janet yellen said six months and then we saw the minutes and there was a correction in the yield curve. >> the message has changed at each step of the way. six months was the target for an interest rate rise. she pulled back from those comments. she has become a little more dovish. that has created volatility itself. the interest rate curve is flattening. that has different repercussions for different parts of the capital market spectrum. it is going to be a very interesting process to see how growth targets play out versus th

i wanted to bring up the point, i am watching the fomc. >> and tomorrow we get the announcement wereother $10 million a month paper. ler housing index, prices expected to go up 13%. but remember, as prices go up it is harder to sell homes and over the past week and a half we have seen new home sales, existing home sales and pending home sales effectively declining. to there two sides equation. prices going up is good, but be careful. >> for those on bloomberg radio -- i just got a surveillance paper cup. --cut. >if i get blood, a four-minute minor. get a tourney kit, please. on my agenda is the ongoing controversy dominating the nba. forget the playoffs, everybody talking about clippers owner donald sterling's alleged comments, racist comments. 2:00 p.m. today and be a commissioner adams over will speak and present the league's findings of the investigation. our twitter question of the day -- how should the nba responded to :00 p.m. eastern time today? the first answer -- smart response. thank you for that. -- >> second answer -- >> well, this is very emotional. >> understandably so.

ahead next week to the fomc, netflix coming out, surging higher yesterday. up 22 after surging earnings, again, a big day to the upside there. expected to see continuation for the most part. we've been watching this divergent type activity that's developing. laggers right now are the russell and the nasdaq. so that's going to resolve itself one way or the other. you have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls at this point until we see significant pullback, this market right now continues to seek higher highs and higher lows. >> what do you think is going to happen in the slightly longer term when looking at the whole selling man go away and stay away for a couple of months? is that going to happen this year as well? >> well, that's a great question. everybody's been kind of predicting that for years right now at this point. it really has yet to develop. i think you have to focus on the areas of value that this market has been establishing on the way up. those have been the same significant areas we have been looking at on the way down. i'm not lookin

. >> we have two fomc meetings in this quarter.l probably drop to $35 billion a month. it's not going to make a difference as we had expected it ordinarily would. that is simply because we see the yields still stay low. they're still strong interest in treasuries. so i think that janet yellen also has been very good job in walking into her new position and not riling the markets. so there is no concern there. >> what one particular are you going to be trying to pull out? >> i want to see, for example, how intel reports. intel will be so important because, of course, it's a proxy for how so many hardware systems are doing around the world. because that's intel's brains. that shift is going to be a very important proxy. another one i'm really looking at is general electric. ge is going to be important for many reasons. but especially because they really have been strong in energy, these large finance projects that have focused on energy globally. so it's going to give us a sense of how ge is going globally and if the expansion is dri

he says the fomc needs to be more specific about its plans to hike rates. >>> joining us with his thoughtschief international economist at ing. rob, good to see you. i know you like to see the minutes before you comment on what they might say. what are we looking for? >> if the fed was doing a good job, the press briefing should have left the minutes completely redundant. we should know everything but they didn't. we had the comment from yellen, that six-month comment. was it a gaffe or wasn't it? since she made that comment, any number of the fed members have been out giving speeches. we haven't got the sense that it definitely was a gaffe. perhaps we have to see something which will reconcile that comment. >> you've got to express the consensual view, have you? or do you express your view? >> it should be the view of the fed. you just mentioned a whole bunch of fed members, holding completely different views. >> it's hard to push the consensual view, that's the point, isn't it? therefore you do need the minutes to know what the range of views are. >> except they're heavily cooked. it's n