gave you fomc minutes at the top. several members wanted to stop, considerable time frame, referring how long rates would be at zero. wall street is loving this. they talked about slack in the labor market. they talked about how wage growth is stagnant. basically trash-talking the economy. making excuses why they leave rates lower longer. that is what the market heard. we were up 78 points before the minutes hit. now we have doubled that gain on the day. obviously investors are liking this. >> look it, median is coming up in couple weeks. this is minutes. meeting will be they will stop qe. everybody will wring their hand to figure out when they raise interest rates. melissa: all right. uncle sam wants you to help identify isis fighters? i hope that is not their only plan. >>> plus it is the final county down. tesla is all set to unveil the d. is it a bird, a plane? or maybe just another car. more "money" coming up. ♪ when folks think about what they get from alaska, they think salmon and energy. but the energy bp prod

we expect that the qe program and is going to conclude with the fomc meeting later this week .s inwhat we have here effect the fed winding downs the millis, but at the same time raising rates, which market tchers expect i the middle of next year. but the fed says there is still slack in the labor market. are policymakers contradicting themselves? >> a little bit. from the projections of the fomc members, they expect rates to be thanr by the end of 2015 where the market is currently pricing. the expectation must the that they expect a significant recovery. our own feeling is that there is going to be a lot of challenges and crosscurrents facing the u.s. economy in that time. a delay, or at least a postponement in the pace at which the fed chooses to hike. >> what might those challenges and crosscurrents be? >> number one, we have some challenges with regard to global growth, that it is going to be a real question as to whether the u.s. can stay outside of the gravitational pull of some of these slow down that we see elsewhere in the world. >> since the first round of asset purch

was that the hawks on the fomc leading the discussion? >> it is interesting. hawks kind of got their way because you did see that foster and fisher, two hocks that had been dissenting in the prior meeting, did not dissent yesterday. overall, what you saw in that statement was relative constancy in how the head -- how the fed is approaching things. they remain focused on the data here at home, which is essentially what matters for their mandate of full employment and price ability, and they are not getting to, i think, responsive to market moves up in that, so i thought respect, it does seem a little hawkish, i guess, compared to what we have been expecting to see. i think there is a perception janet yellen will be overly sensitive to minor growth or inflation disappointments, and we saw, i think, instead, what looks like a pretty steady hand yesterday. >> speaking of statements, the fed kept its considerable time guidance language -- they kept that at least on interest rates. why has this phrase been used so repeatedly? what message did it send to the markets?

the fomc meeting does kick off today. we'll leave it there, david zervos, chief market strategist at jeffries. thank you very much. >>> just want to bring you some updates from italy. morale among italian manufacturers has risen unexpectedly strongly in october. it's the first four months of straight declines. the manufacturing business indicator has come in at 96.0 from 95.5 in september. expectation was for 94.9. so above expectations, the composite business came in at 89.3 versus 86.9 last month. the ftse mib would bounce back has moved to session highs following that data. 1.5% in the green. >> twitter's third quarter werings met analyst expectations, but the stock still fell sharply in after hours trade. the social media giant issued disappointing guidance and reported a 7% slide in user engagement. they played down fears over engagement growth. >> we believe that the interest that is measured by what people are coming to twitter to consume and the kinds of things they're engaging with give a specific view of what is

the fomc is expected to announce the end of its qe

the top of the agenda today was the fomc minutes. >> absolutely. investors are getting a sigh of relief after getting method fed members. members of the committee had concerns that the rate guidance could be misunderstood as a commitment. most policymakers would prefer the timeline be data dependent rather than a mechanical date. >> global economic weakness in places like france and germany is starting to be felt here, at the federal reserve's washington headquarters. and that could have an effect on interest rates. the fed in the minutes from its september meeting revealed concerns with floundering economies overseas saying, quote, economic growth over the long-term may be slower than expected if foreign economic growth came in weaker than anticipated. there was concern over the strong. the worries were that a strong dollar would reduce inflation since foreign goods become cheaper in long-term since the dollar is strengthening. fed staff economists said the central bank may not hit their target, quote, over the next few years. >> the dollar's move

very volatile after the fomc. >> thank you very much. our question today is did the fed's bond buying program work. we want you to weigh in. as you vote, ron insana will talk about whether or not he thinks it worked. what do you think, ron? >> without a doubt. in each case the fed's qe program 1, 2, 3, the economy continued to stabilize and grow. things were more affordable. banks, businesses were able to deleverage their value sheets. except for what both kate and diana talked about. the lending standards are offsetting the impact of the low rates. >> what about the fact that they kept rates for too long a period of time, that perhaps the core part of the economy is healthy enough or was to withdraw some of that stimulus? sfwhoo we had the taper tan item last year. i think if you look globally. deflation -- and this is the view of larry summers and a variety of other economists who are following this quite closely, there's a global risk and it could be important here again. it's not current in the united states but the fed has to watch

according to the fomc the committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month. turning now to interest rate policy, no significant change here. the committee anticipates based on its current assessment it's likely to be appropriate to maintain a zero to quarter percent target range for the fed funds rate for a considerable period of time even as the asset purchase program comes to an end. turning now to the assessment of the economy. since the last open market meeting in september, the fomc judges that the economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. labor market conditions have improved somewhat with solid job gains and o lower unemployment rate. on balance, job rate in the labor market indicates and suggests that the underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing. household spending rising moderately. advancing the recovery of the housing market remains slow. overall as far as the balance of the economy and inflation, the committee sees the risk of the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced saying here althoug

>> i think the fomc minutes have been over-shadowed by what we're seeing here.o the imf managing director earlier this week and she told me the imf global growth remains significant. that has broader concerns for any potential back to the u.s. >> elan, thank you so much for joining us today from the wall post. that's all we've got time for today on "worldwide exchange." i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm seema mody. "squawk box" is next. >>> good morning and welcome to "squawk box." worries about growth in europe, europe sliding again following a big tumble on wall street and a pushback by germany on some of the stimulus. but nobody feels that great about this whole ebola thing. >>> earnings indigestion. the results from yum brands leaving investors hungry for more profits. and a big box retailer going strong. costco rolling out better than expected results. it's wednesday, october 8th, 2014, and "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is off today. the dow suffered it

the fomc meeting, we had the owner of kfc doing badly in china, lowering its estimate there as well. plenty of physicals to come out ahead. elsewhere, time geithner is back up in front of judges and attorneys in the this court case, where morris greenberg the former ceo, wanting $40 billion in damage. he was instrumental in the fact that a 12% interest rate was attached to federal loans to aig. they put a time limit on that and the attorney for morris greenberg and the claimants was pretty aggressive in its questions to mr. geithner. >> that's one to watch with that powerful ruffle with the three aig guys. >>> cnbc has this new survey, things people are willing to sacrifice to be able to afford new tech. so what are the things they will give up to get the new iphone or samsung product? >> pretty much everything, actually, travel, food, health care. >> children's college? >> well, that may be as well. they can get a loan. but health care, which is such a battleground stateside the last couple years under president obama, these things will be cut back by nearly half of americans, 48% o

>> well, we already know rates jumped higher just this afternoon after the fomc announcement. we know they are the highest rate now in the last three weeks, but they didn't jump dramatically higher. we will see rates inch slightly higher but it will not be a big dramatic move. and what is important to note it has not been the rate but the credit availability that is really affecting home buying today. it is buyers who need to have good credit and have a down payment. they need to have full documentation. so i don't think we need to worry quite as much about the rate as we do about the credit availability going forward. >> absolutely, the process is really longer for any of us who have gone through this. thank you so much, diana olick in washington. >>> and still ahead on the program, twitter and facebook are two very different businesses but they're both struggling from some of the same issues. that story is next. >>> any investor will tell you that every second counts when executing a trade. and two new studies have found that hedge funds, high frequency traders and others ar

when we have an earnings season like this, fomc minutes, what tends to move the markets more?le under some sort of stress right now. risks to the downside in the market have been elevated. when you said external event, you refer to -- >> last week, there was a lot of activity in brazil stocks. there was a lot of options trading and results of spillover affects today. that seemed to be what is driving volume in the options market right now. >> one name we are focused on is yum! brands. they cut their profit forecast for the year. you would think that would be a negative catalyst but the stock is rising. what do the options thomas? >> the stock is rising but only marginally. that is not really a surprise. the options market is predicting a further selloff in the stock. we sought a buyout of january 60 options, the stop getting around $71. january 72.5off of strike calls this morning. options market does not really believe the downside in the stock is done. potentially, there could be a further selloff. >> you are looking into the next earnings report as well. >> the reports from

so the market reprising of more hawkish fomc has already made boj looking more dovish on the relative term. so i would say that probably reduces probability of additional easing near-term. >> okay. all right, what do you think the impact of this is really going to be on the economy overall, though? >> so, there's been a lot of discussions. i think on net, over the long term, weaker yen should be positive on the economy. you know, you cannot just look at the wider trade deficit or higher inflation. you have to look at the positive impact on income balance, japan's external assets and corporate profitability. however, near-term, there's going to be a divergent effect between exporters who benefit most, but you know, the benefit of exporters might spill over, you know, with some lag into household sector and service sector. >> okay. and speaking of the exporters, where are they looking at the yen to be at the moment? and how do you think it's going to affect them? >> that's a pretty good question, because this morning tankan survey showed exporters are assuming dollar/yen at around 100.

one thing that spooked a lot of investors this week is what they heard from the fed, from the fomc. the idea that you could be looking at these global downturns and that eventually pulling the u.s. down, that being a reason we need to keep rates low here. what do you think about that? could that be the right move? >> it could be. it's a double edged sword, if everything is synchronized. i think one of the good things is some economies look better like the u.s. some maybe a little worse, parts of europe. so maybe it ultimately makes the expansion last even longer in the u.s. just because things are a little less coordinated. >> you said you get a lot of questions from people asking about the strength of the dollar. that has been surprisingly strong, up something like 8% or 9% over the last month. and that has some people wonder about what that does for earnings to multinational corporations. will that put a dent in them? >> our work shows that the sectors impacts are machinery, personal products, chemicals, select pharma, select tech. but in aggregate, what's interesting is you can't

the fomc hands darling costs -- hints borrowing costs will stay near zero.australia tested for ebola. bringing one billion people online. live pictures from new delhi. facebook's mark zuckerberg is there. he is talking and saying interesting things. a vested interest, but nevertheless, a massive opportunity in that country. good morning to our viewers in europe. good evening those in asia. and a very warm welcome to those just waking up in the u.s. i'm guy johnson. this is "the pulse." live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. meet the man behind some of hollywood's most daring aerial shots. this package is unbelievable. wait until you see the pictures we will show you later. tesla's revealed. it unveil electric cars that will spark consumer interest. what is happening with the bank of england. european stocks rallying after the fed's commitment to keep rates low for a long time. what is going on beneath the surface? >> the markets are the big story. more than the fed. the fed looks worried. one of these stories the "financial times" is carrying

he says the fomc will have to change the right guidance wording at a statement in its next meeting.ys he doesn't think the fed can keep using the, quote, considerable time frame. >>> meanwhile, ben bernanke used to oversee the u.s. emergency mokt, but even he is having trouble getting a loan. he said on thursday he's having a hard time refinancing hirs morning due to tight credit conditions. bernanke bought his house in washington for 2004 for $840,000 and has refinanced twice before. "the wall street journal" says bernanke's issues may be loans may be too big to qualify for backing fannie mae and fredding mac. we want to hear from you on this. he's mortgaged his country, but he can't re-mortgage his house. on a serious note, has banking regulation on housing gone too far, even mr. bernanke can't refinance his mortgage? john tweeted in earlier to say banking regulations haven't gone far enough. there should be a demand of 25% down payment when buying a home. michael says the process of buying a home has gotten worse. get in touch with us via e-mail or twitter. >> aside from experien

the minutes from last month's fomc meeting are due at 2:00 p.m. eastern time this afternoon. investors will comb those floats for hints on when or if the central bank may start to raise rates. it will be interesting to try and see what yellen thinks about these things to try and figure out who lines up where in terms of the doves and the hawks. >>> beyond the economy, earnings are a topic for investors today. alcoa is set to post quarterly results after the bell. the warehouse club operator posting better-than-expected earnings. same-store sales rising 7% during the quarter. you can see that stock up by 1.5%. fast food giant yum earnings the mark. falling short of estimates. they do say they continue to improve in the region. >>> let's head overseas for the latest on the global markets. sri jegarajah is standing by this singapore. first, though, let's check in with seema mody. that's a good gig, seema. london. it's expensive, though. >> life could be worse. london is definitely good. but, guys, another tough day for the european markets. you're looking at the ftse 100 down ab

at the nextow that fomc meeting, policymakers will be keeping interest rates at an all-time low. know? janet yellen said so. tothere a downside transparency? trish regan joins us. you wrote an op ed on the communications strategy. >> in usa today i did. too much information. normally journalists recognize the value and all that communication. we like that. but we are in a situation now moving basedket is on what they think janet yellen is doing, and not even what they think. they know. it is being telegraphed so far ahead of time. what i am asking here is, why not have a little mystery between the markets and the fed? it is very interesting, mark. prior to 1994, the fed never told anyone when it moved on its interest rates. you had to gauge it based on what happened, and in the market the next day. we do not want to return to that, but it seems since and continuing with janet yellen, there is this desire on behalf of the fed to give the markets so much information. --ok, then is it the market' problem based on how they are interpreting it? >> you have a market that, i think, is o

traders he i speak to are staying cautious ahead of those fomc memberships.he process of rising rates are higher. >> on friday, we had good news out of the u.s. pushing markets higher. the last couple of days we've had bad news out of europe pushing markets lower. for once, the more correlated with the nud and the fundamentals rather than the opposite which has been the case in recent months. certainly over a couple of days, but quite an interesting factor to look at. >> great trend. >>> markets implying a lower open, dow jones down about 80 points in free market trade, nasdaq down about 20. s&p 500 following suit. this coming in ahead of what we will be hear from a different different fed speakers. plus third quarter earnings kick off on wednesday. alcoa expected to kick off -- excuse me, premarket trade. >>> the ftse global 300 index, currently trading lower down about 4 points after what was a rebound in yesterday's session. let's dive into the individual european markets following a weak session in asia. european stocks for the most part are trading lower

market is up 200 points off of the highs of the session on the fomc minutes he had a lot of news on apple. liz: charlie gasparino working the phones with carl icahn and will bring what he has gotten in just a minute. stocks jumping big-time thanks to what appeared to be angst and worry at the most recent fed meeting about what? we will tell you. the dow up 86 points, look at it now up 194. the fed is concerned of weak growth overseas so why did the transports, which were getting hammered in the negative territories turnaround and spike? helping to break it all down, he is here live. breaking news on ebola, officials will check the temperatures of travelers coming from west africa. five major american airports will be whipping up the thermometer. and coming hours after the death of thomas duncan arrived on a flight 18 days ago. let's start the countdown. we need to get to the fed because we all like to know what goes on behind closed doors especially when it affects your money. that is why the federal reserve minutes in the most recent meeting released one hour ago are so closely watched.

but arguably the most important datapoint or event is the fomc meeting.he market will try to interpret the fed's process of normalizing rates. do you think janet yellin and the fed will take into account the recent volatility? >> i don't think. i think that would have to be sustained a little longer as well. one of the things the market perfects is that the fonc is like and ocean liner and doesn't turn on the dime. it takes a long time to turn their policy. the market expected them to get out of qe and tighten a lot sooner than they planned. once they got into a schedule, it's going to take an awful lot to get them off that schedule, especially when talking about a fed that's probably more dovish than the bernanke one. so i agree it's the most important event, but we look at it too closely on a month to month basis. >> bob, chief market strategist at te isco partners. >>> which asset is spooking you? head to traderpoll.cnbc.com and you can see the trend. you can say on twitter using #traderpoll. >>> before we go, let's have a quick update on european mark

the fomc has indicated it will end their third round of bond buying aimed at lowering long-term borrowingget you set up for today's special broadcast. fed and weis at the will hear from him in just a few minutes. also joining me this afternoon in new york will be the chief economist of alternative investments at kpmg and kathleen gaffney and lead manager.of the bond fund also standing by with the wall aini,t reaction is mia s what is the street expecting to hear from the fed? >> >> the traders i have been speaking to, many say they are waiting. three big benchmarks -- the dow, s&p, and the nasdaq, flat session for the past two hours. you didn't see the s&p and the debt -- you did see the s&p and the dow toggle between gains and losses. now we are pretty much waiting. minimizing some of the earlier losses as they are waiting for the fed to continue the same, more of the same. many analysts are saying that there is no conviction in the market. the expectation is that tapering will and but with the markets will be looking for, what market participants will be looking for, include forward gui

and there is not an awful lot on the calendar and you get the fomc coming up next week. so i think people's attention will begin to shift slightly. but is the market still vulnerable? we can see that. 200 point moves day after day and opposite directions. pretty tough stuff. >> art, what strikes me in tech is old and new tech is up. you have emc up a percent. apple up near all time high lgs. hp and plus aside from yelp you have splunk and smaller names that trade up at the same time. what do you make of that? >> the same thing with the vcs. money is gravitating towards the silicon valley area. some before they come out public and everybody else is saying hey look, tech is safe again. let me get in it. so it was an underchased world for a while. >> and does this scrambling in short covering take us to new highs? >> it is that possibility. i would look at the s&p up around oh 1965 to 1975 in that area. and we'll see how we go. >> when you loo lose 150 hammeds in a few days and gain 100 back people say liquidity is going to be a story. volatility for months to come? >> i th

as brian was say tg is the fomc lift. now it is moving higher. still it is turning around. the airlines, this is the xal now down about 13% from early september highs. still in the red here. this is something slightly different. this is an ebola impact. the airlines are concerned about demand. >> i find that weird like no industry in the world is more susceptible to fuel prices. >> despite lower fuel prices airlines are down. i bring it down to ebola impact and what people think about traveling if we see further outbreaks or further cases. >> they also had giant gains. >> people have come to realize that flying is -- >> sucks. just really not fun. >> if you are a large person like yourself. >> i didn't want to say it. >>> a tweet byhas harry potter fans going bonkers today. >>> listen to what was said just yesterday. >> costco will release tomorrow. i think they are a buying opportunity at any price. i think they are the best retailer in the world. that will be interesting to watch. the conference call. the ultimate arena for business. hour after hour of diving deep, touchi

we'll see if the feds -- fomc can change that around with the commentary next week when they will presumablyweaken the dollar and raise the currencies higher. everyone trying to exploit deflation. glaxosmithkline did okay. heineken had a problem with a warm summer. and in the u.k., the price war continues. in fact walmart is winning the price war to a certain extent on the data we got out today. and they just keep tracking into negative territory. tesco. they have had profit warnings and tomorrow further profit data. back to you. >> simon hobbs. when we come back it appears twitter is listening to former microsoft ceo steve ballmer. >> developers developers. developers. developers. developers. >> twitter expected to announce new steps to bring app developers back to the social network. we have details and the man behind instagram's best known filters talks the future of pictures and video and mobile. cole rise with us later. "squawk alley" back in a minute. ameriprise asked people a simple question: in retirement, will you have enough money to live life on your terms? i sure hope so. with he

. >> however it appears the fed implicitly plans to begin to hike rates at the june meeting of the fomc, that is somewhat surprising because the market priced in a sent 2015 start to rate hikes. melissa: what do you think? >> yeah, i'm -- melissa: go ahead. >> i'm sorry, there is no surprise. this is with john. market -- they don't want to upset the markets right now. this is just a i don't know, pabulum statement coming from the fed. melissa: charlie? >> yeah. i mean i think the market is still digesting it. raising it sooner is interesting. melissa: raising it sooner? look at market trading down on this? >> i think that is the headline. >> yeah, without question. >> we should point out they're raising it from the lowest rate ever, zero. not exactly the -- >> in peter's summary was struck by lack of reference to the problems in europe and very certain influential emerging market economies like china. that is where we're getting concern regarding price deflation. commodity price deflation. >> it is possible, we haven't read the whole statement. there is probably a thousand caveats. meli

liz: number one thing to watch tomorrow, federal reserve fomc minutes from the most recent meeting innutes are set to be released wednesday, 2:00 p.m. eastern. investors will examine every single word, vowel, syllable, looking for clues when the fed might raise interest rates. for now is mid 2015. david: of course on a day when the market is down 270 points as it was today, on the dow, we're going to be watching right from the beginning exactly what is happening to this market. you have to stick to it, right here. maria, will take the ball and run with it at 9:00 a.m. tomorrow morning. half hour before the opening bell. liz: meantime, it is gerri and "the willis report." david: see you tomorrow. >> hello, everybody i'm gerri willis. another hit to your 401(k) with a selloff on wall street. the dow plunging more than 270 points. i'll tell you why you lost money today. >>> also coming up on the show, a family's heartbreaking story forces a town to take action with the first death from the enterovirus means for schools across the country. >>> also a new study shows just how dangerous, da

look at the fomc projections themselves, they're basically saying it is by summer 2016 that rates wille one point 25%. there is scope for a pretty aggressive correction which will lead to a broadly stronger dollar from here. you psych this sort of slow, gradual move by the fed. small? so you do not have that ratcheting effect. you think we will get a timesheet 2015 and rates -- a punchy 201%? >> from a yield curve veryective, it is complacent in my opinion. if you get a good market positioning, literally we still have a very large dollar short position until july of this year. remember. we are coming from seven years of having a very, very structurally weak dollar. with every other major central bank still renting money, it's hard to avoid the conclusion that the dollar -- strengthening of the dollar index which is above 70. it any figure above 70 means an asset is overbought. it's trading at 86. it's been above $.70 august. what is that telling us now? >> we've had an aggressive correction but it's been for good reasons. the two sides of this equation, it's pretty clear to me now the

>> tomorrow we have fomc meeting. hyg, that's your short. >> karen?ouched on nna, tanker rates moving up. >> guy? >> hartford financial, yesterday's quarter i think gives you a level to trade against. 35 on the downside. i think this takes the stock north of 45 bucks. >> our thanks to the bob peck of suntrust for sticking with us. i'm >>> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make a little money. my job is not just to entertain you, but to educate and teach you. so call me, or tweet me @jimcramer. this is the anti-charles dickens market. a market of not so great

minutes from the fomc, federal reserve minutes.d about the possibility of a rate hike? some say it won't actually happen. others say there is a possibility of rate hikes. we're getting a little too excited too son. premature to talk about hikes and dollar strength. what you've got here is a drop in the euro. obviously cutting the european growth rate. we have merckel. deutsch bank $1.25 by the middle of next year. .oining the bandwagon >> e.u. leaders meet in milan today to discuss jobs in the euro area. one-fifth of people out of work. matteo renzi says he has a plan to overhaul the country's labor issue. >> we will go to the discussion with our european partners with a plan of structural reforms that is the most ambitious ever conceived in italy with a time frame for implementation never seen in europe. >> forces broken out across southeast turkey. the advance of -- a 10:00 p.m. local time cur fefment w has been imposed. >> a 6.6 magnitude quake in china killed one and injured over 700 people as well as destroying almost 7,000 ho

investors are still digesting and dissecting every word of the fomc statement yesterday, including bloombergew columnist mohamed el-erian, writes that "the fed, rather than singling will telegraph signal for going forward and keeping options open in an unusually fluid economic local and global environment." .hat is his interpretation joining us now is the former fed reserve governor during the depths of the financial crisis. chicago at the booth school of business at the university of chicago. great to see you again. >> yeah, great to be here. >> would you agree with mohamed el-erian? they have several options, or have they actually narrower than? clearly finished the purchase program released this purchase program, but they said, well, we will have to see how the economy and inflation evolves over making any commitments about what time means. that is reasonable given the in the middleisks east or africa or the ukraine, to say that we're on a clear path to the economy's not quite right. but yellent right, did say that they continue to see improvement in the labor market. sunset after reading

there was the fomc minutes and a catch-up reaction to the rally in bonds. no one could identify one trigger. >> it is a draghi-wolfgang schaeuble fight. the imf has said europe, there's a problem in europe. europe has a problem? >> markets are frothing. >> first time i've heard that. >> a lot of what happens day today is random. it's noisy, there's a cartoon about what starts out as someone using the word "sell" becomes this giant climax, the same thing happens on the buy side. there's a tremendous amount of randomness. it is a crowd of monkeys punching keyboards. sometimes -- 300.0, down 300, up what happened that we didn't know? europe has a problem. ipos and tech, frothy. sometimes these things just begin -- >> you thought draghi could come to the rescue. we talk about his bazooka, "i'll do what it takes." when wolfgang shapleigh says -- when wolfgang schaeuble says no way, jose. they met in milan. problem between europe's policymakers. wein the u.s., even though have been cutting back jobs and the federal government's growing slower, by and large we've

we have the fomc minutes.versation that occurs in the minutes is a way of laying the groundwork for the markets on the change. >> jeff rosenberg with blackrock. out of jacob -- adam? >> look at where the markets are trading. i got so excited. s&p futures are up seven points, 1/3 of a percent. the 10 year is flat. the euro getting a bid, 1.2560. , finally up.p $.56 >> this is bloomberg "surveillance," i'm olivia sterns with tom keene adam johnson. our guest host's jeffrey rosenberg, chief investment strategist for fixed income at blackrock. dilma rousseff clinches victory in the first round of elections. the battle is far from over. plenty at stake. willem marx is in sao paulo. he joins us with more. good morning. it was really a very unexpected result. the incumbent walked away with around 42 percent of the country's votes. in went to aecio neves, third place over the last month. maria silva, 21%. later thisthat month, in three weeks' time, october twice six, we will have a runoff. the top two will be competin

the fomc could be assuming that theirlleagues -- colleagues are idiots and that the path does not correspondhey think. but it is conditional to all kinds of stuff. the reason why this is also compensated -- complicated is indicator of good what was happening in the market before was the unemployed men rate. today, it isn't. >> is that because it is at a low since the 1970's? >> the numbers fell on the jobs report, but the participation rate fell as well. the wages remain flat. this is something never happened before. very good indicator of slack. that is what the problem is. >> and the long-term for dissipation rate is the reason we are seeing sagging wages. rages rise fast in some areas. there are pockets. >> -- manufacturing wages rise fast in some areas. there are pockets. >> some bids will be growing fast and some will not. you pick something at the 99th percentile and says it's doing fine. i could pick something at the other end. says indicator at the mean nothing is going on. >> for investors, the message seems pretty clear, that the fed will be accommodative for as long as necessary.

. >> what are the pricing targets in terms of fomc tomorrow? back their expectations into next year. >> maybe we'll get some inkling on that. they have been very vague in their wording. thank you. we will be back on the markets once again in 30 minutes. next withkers" is erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. ♪ >> live from bloomberg headquarters in new york, this kers" with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. >> a slamdunk. madison square garden wants to separate to take advantage of record prices for sports. >> wal-mart thomases to buy an extra quarter trillion dollars worth. upwill see if they're living for their pledge. high-end haunted houses. how to scare the devil out of people for fun and profit

we have the most hawkish fomc that you can imagine.en vacancies on the board of governors. you're overweight on presidents. one more vacancy will probably get another dove. and then the two presidents are duds, and janet yellen, it took a while to get her feet on the ground. she's the new kid on the block. you're not going to blow up policies in your first meeting. but by january, the governors will be at full strength. the presidents will be dovish. yellen will have her feet on the ground. and heard dashboard is still not looking good. at best, not raising rates and probably go to qe4. >> you are saying no rate raise for all of 2015. >> not in my back yard unless they make structural changes. you cannot solve a depression by printing money. you have to solve it with structural changes. at the beginning of world war ii, we completely restructure the economy. i'm not rooting for war, but i'm saying it will take that kind of drastic approach. upmacare, regulation, raking the banks, these are the things that would get the economy moving -

. >> i think the members of the fomc are gradually adjusting their forecasts. wouldn't be surprised to see a rate hike starting as early as march. the real question is wage growth. what is happening here, this is almost a stealth recovery in the labor market where workers haven't recognized this nor have employers recognized how tight things are getting. the next percentage point down, everyone will realize you can find good workers easily and will see a significant pick-up in wages in the next 12 months as that comes home to workers and employers. i think this is a tightening labor market and will push the fed to tighten. >> i don't understand why small caps are not a screaming buy. the russell has been pounded this year. we know that against the s&p 0 500. small caps are not exposed to a stronger dollar. they are exposed to growth in this economy. the fact they've not rallied leads me to this question. is what we are seeing today in the market the strong economy, basically baked into the rallies we have last year and the year before? >> no. i don't think so.

investors will get those earnings as mentioned, we've got the fomc meeting. big day? ah, the usual.cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern. sometimes they just drop in. always obvious. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. once there was a girl who even in her laundry room. with downy unstopables for long-lasting scent. and infusions for softness. she created her own mix, match, magic. downy, wash in the wow. shyou see this right? it's 80% confidence and 64% knee brace. that's more... shh... i know that's more than 100%. but that's what winners give. now bicycle kick your old 401(k) into an ira. i know, i know. listen, just get td ameritrade's rollover co

. >> and the dove have the numbers on the fomc. >> especially heading into 2015.er things briefly to watch. the dollar is going to be one. >> right. >> that one, again, sometimes you have to look against the euro or the yen, sometimes just the trade-weighted index, but that's been pushing things around quite a bit. >> ford a couple of weeks ago came out in front of their earnings, here is what we're concerned about. this is why they punished the stock. but less so than they would have punished it had they kept their mouth shut. >> the interesting thing is the stocks that are as sensitive to the dollar moves, the ones that are doing most of their business here in the rust the ones that have fallen out of favor. >> that's why we were thinking the russell would get its mojo back. and it looked until the last half hour like it would. and again, to remind people, there might have been some ebola concerns contributing to the sell-off. does that make you -- how does that make you feel about the fact that we performed so badly at the close? >> i think as the market is a l

traders are looking at the release of the latest fomc minutes on wednesday afternoon. take a look right now. you'll see dow futures are down by about 69 points below fair value. all this is coming after yesterday's gains petered out as we got into session. you'll see in super, cac down by almost 1%. declines for the dax in germany and the ftse in london. oil prices below $90 still, down by about 39 cents this morning. 89.9 a for wti. if you've been watching what's happening with the ten-year, yielding 2.409%. joe, you missed it last week, but there was a lot of back and forth questions about where we are headed on this yield. mark graham sends me a note every day reminding me he's been calling for 2% before we see something like 2% or 2.5%. check on out was been happening tt dollar. the dollar is up against the euro, 1 is.2596. gold prices at r at this hour, 1,206.10 an ounce. >>> coffee, futures jumping to a two-year high. andrew, over to you. >> the ebola situation, north carolina drugmaker kumerick is providing an intrimtal drug to a patient being treated in dallas.

we've had a couple of those voting members on the fomc say, look, you may not need this by 2015. need higher rates. why do you think that you are sure to see higher rates by next year? >> first it's interesting. people talk about the minutes and they had talked about what's going on outside the u.s. as a risk. at the same meeting, they increased their expectations. if you look at your projections including what looks like the chairperson. so in the same way, yes, they look at that as a risk. but their baseline forecast is the economy is on solid footing. and in fact, they pushed forward the lift off of interest rates. so it's a risk. but at the end of the day, we don't derail the economy. >> what do you make of the so-called emerging market bond market? kazakhstan just sold 10-year notes at a yield of 4%. ecuador which defaulted because it chose to a few years back is now back as of last spring and bopds are trading at premium to par. there is, of course, a raging yield hunger which takes the form of ever-lower yields and ever-higher prices. how are you navigating through this? >

the fomc is expected to turn off its massive bond buying program while ensuring investors it will start ready to act should the economy be threatened. and we will have steve liesman joining us with the exclusives from the fe survey later this morning. the s&p case-shiller index, consumer confidence, and third quarter housing data. as for earnings, among the names posting quarterly results before the bell, dupont just hitting the tape. pfizer, auto nation, corning, when i will pool. coming this up afternoon, facebook will be on centers stage after a market closes. we have the dow looking like it will open higher. up about 11.5 points. the nasdaq will open higher, as well, by approximately 24 points. >>> earnings per share, sales, 7.5 billion. revenue is 7.87 billion. so it's a different number. 7.87 compared to 7.95. so maybe just a little bit shy of expectations. but pretty close. and then for the year, the company says it is backing its $4 to $4.10 number and the estimate for analysts is this $4. so analysts are backing $4 to $4.120. in fact, the first quarter for the fourth quarter of

if all goes expected, the fomc will turn off its massive bond-buying program and will also assure investorsans to stand ready to act should the economy be threatened. >>> also on the economic calendar, pending home sales today. tomorrow, durable goods. then thursday jobless claims and the first read on third quarter gdp. finally on friday, personal income and spending for chicago pmi and consumer sentiment. merck is the first big name to watch before the bell today and then we'll hear from twitter. michelle, over to you. >>> we'll check on the markets this morning with futures suggesting earlier on to look like it will be definitive ly a positive open. the futures are lower suggesting the dow opens lower by 16 points. the s&p opens lower by two and the nasdaq lower by roughly 3.5. >>> in energy news goldman sachs slashes the 2015 oil price forecast arguing rising output will outgrow demand. the changes make goldman the most bearish of the major financial firms. crude prices have dropped 25% over the past five months. we'll show you what is going on this morning. wti is at $81 per barrel whi

the fomc is expected to announce the end of its qe bond buying program that was first launched during the crisis. now the question is just how long janet yellen and company will keep the fed low. you'll see the dow futures are indicated positive, up about 18 points above fair value. nasdaq futures slightly weaker. if you watch what's been happening in the early trading in the european markets, you'll see at least right now there are green arrows across the board with germany up by 0.8%. the ftse in london up by about 0.6%. and in terms how how things closed, the shack high, positive territory 1.5%. hang seng up 1.25%. andrew, it's not only the anniversary of the 1929 stock crash, it's the two of had year anniversary from sandy hitting our shores. >> that is true. i had not thought about that. thank you. thank you for that. let's tell you a little bit about some stocks that are on the move this morning. electronic arts posting better than expected results and raising its forecast for a video publisher getting cost controls and strong digital sales. falling short of that mid shares. pan