earlier, after weighing the costs associated with various rates of inflation, the fomc decided that 2% inflation is an appropriate operational definition of its longer run price objectives. in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, however, achieving both this objective the othermployment, leg of the federal reserve's dual mandate has been difficult. ,nitially the unemployment rate the solid black line, sword, and inflation fell sharply. moreover after the recession officially ended in 2009, the subsequent recovery was significantly slowed by a headwinds,persistent including households with underwater mortgages and high debt burdens, reduced access to credit for many potential borrowers, constrained spending by state and local governments, and weakened foreign growth prospects. in an effort to return to employment and inflation to levels consistent with the federal reserve's dual mandate, took a variety of unprecedented actions to lower long-term interest rates. including reducing the federal funds rate, that is the dotted black line, to near zero, communicating to the public that shor

a doubling of the fomc members to four have pushed them past 2015. one even went negative in his predictions for federal funds rates this year and next. what does that tell you about the trajectory of burner rates in the u. s.? >> well, i'd say, up front, we have maintained december as our base case. we think that there's going to be sufficient agreement within the committee to regain control over monetary condition. they'll start a tightening cycle but get some of the liquidity in and try to test these for a little while to see how the economy evolves but the dispersion of these is now much wider. added 50 basis points and 1600 basis points in 17 to the range of the dots. and that is, i think, another reflection of this uncertainty that reigns over the medium run. >> do you think if the data was exactly the same yesterday as in december that they might still hike? my point is is this genuinely just a data dependent decision now? it seems to be a psychological battle between the members of the committee really debating as to whether they can afford t

i want to say that global markets are watching the fomc. let's check in on the european session on this tuesday. more pronounced declines, the ftse by close to .7. the cac down by 5. let's see how that's rolling into the u.s. market open. futures in trade telling us the implied open, we'll be down 4.5 points for the s&p 500. the dow is pricing at a lower start of 40 points and the tech heavy nasdaq may be declining by 12 points. >> let's remind you of the headlines before we head to break. investors wait for the sidelines for the fed with futures just below flat. they move closer to a deal after extending the current contract and the u.s. senate will vote again on a resolution to reject the iran nuclear deal. worldwide exchange, we're back in a couple of minutes. &t and d which means you can watch movies while you're on the move. sitcoms, while you sit on those. and even fargo, in fargo! binge, while you lose weight! and enjoy a good cliffhanger while you hang from a... why am i yelling? the revolution will not only be televised. the revolu

predictions out there we had a doubling of fomc members pushing out the hiking curve and normalization beyond 2015, what does that say? >> people are lacking confidence. they didn't get a idea that they had fundamental outlook and enough to hike i think. we've seen everyone push it back. particularly when people were expecting september or at least certain that we'd get december and that china volatility made everybody push it back a bit but the market itself clearly moved yesterday and some people were expecting a hike and didn't get it. >> speaking of china, it's interesting that one central bank is criticizing another central bank because in the press conference janet yellen was highlighting the lack of deafness from beijing authorities. should you be going out to criticize others. >> if i was yellen i wouldn't be going there. that's what i think. >> the debate wages on as to when the fed will pull the figure. they speak about their move. >> they have been pitching it for so long and basically promised 2015. i would say yes. what they want to do is start to renormalize to move that

i think that is where the debate is going to be at the fomc. how competent are we? we're nearing the point. and how competent are we we'll continue to make progress toward that point? i think most of the fomc has made clear that before seeing this recent turmoil that we -- we're very close to that point. and so the third big issue will be whether what is happening abroad can the u.s. economy remain buoyant in the face of that? alix: great you brought that up. we have a chart the term premium on the 10-year yield and it basically is the extra juice investors demand to wind upholding long-term treasuries instead of short-term securities and it is negative. that reflects to me, matt, there is some panic in the market. there is some trickle down from the instability we've seen. matt: yeah. it definitely hits at this point treasuries are being used as a hedge against a lot of uncertainty and things that could go wrong in global markets in the economy right now. so investors are not demanding as much of a premium to hold those treasuries as they otherwise might. in a more

finally, fomc participants project inflation to be very low this year. it is largely reflecting lower energy and non-energy import prices. holdingnsitory factor down inflation today and labor market conditions continue to firm, the median inflation just/10on rises 4 from cheer and.7% the reaches 2% in 2018. the path of the median inflation projection is a bit lower than in june. the outlook abroad appears to have become more uncertain of late and heightened concerns about growth in china and other emerging market economies have led to notable volatility in financial markets. since our july meeting including the drop in equity prices, the further appreciation of the dollar, and widening and risk spreads have tightened overall financial conditions to some extent. these developments may restrain u.s. economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. given the significant economic and financial interconnections between the united states and the rest of the world, the situation abroad bears close watchin

the bank of japan itself leaving policy unchanged while investors pause for breath ahead of the fomc meeting. >> stocks are going further into the red despite a crack down on illegal margin trading. >> we cannot coexist. alexis tsipras and his new democracy rival rule out forming a coalition as they go head to head ahead of sunday's election. >> auto stocks are shifting up a gear as they rose for the 24th straight month. they are not concerned by china's slow down. >> i guess nobody really could predict this. >> we are not so much concerned because we did our homework and we have a very attractive portfolio. >> let's get straight to it. checking in on european auto stocks, out performers by the names of fiat and diamler. let's get straight to the frankfurt motor show. a close to 10% increase in car sales in the month of august just below the average of its competitors and nancy just whole with the chairman and ceo of nissan and asked about the impact of a china slow down. >> well, you know, as ceo of renault which has no presence in china, the fact that the chinese market instead of

thank you for all of it as we await the fomc decision.ng up next, new zealand aiming to make rugby world history. we will get more on that ahead of the tournament's opening one "first up," returns. stay with us. ♪ rugby world cup about to get underway in england. teams from around the globe have arrived to chase their dreams of glory. defending champions new zealand has been meeting fans. they are aiming to make read the history by becoming the first worldo win consecutive cup. their first game is sunday at wembley against argentina. the finalist of the previous training, france, are also set to go. the french media has been more critical when the players campaign -- complained about being kept up late by a noisy wedding party. we have faced a big setback with two of their key players rolled out with injuries. wales has been drawn in the so-called pool of death, alongside host england, and two-time champions australia. >> it will be a very very tough pool to qualify. we have to be at our best to win it. we have to be at our best for austr

. >> for most fomc participants including myself, we currently anticipate that achieving this conditions will entail the federal funds rate this year. >> porsche's top man is expected to become ceo amid investigations and lawsuits. >> nike sees a 23% bounce in first quarter profits thanks in large part to china. >> get in line. apple fans form queues outside of stores across the globe as the new iphone 6s goes on sale. >> we pick up on the trail of pope francis as he visits the big apple. and an equity extradition. will the trader at the center of the flash crash allegations be sent to face charges in the u.s.? >> speaking yesterday chair janet yellen saying that the fomc still expects conditions to be right to raise interest rates this year but she caveated that by saying if the economy surprises on the downside, judgments would then have to change. >> for most fomc participants including myself, we currently anticipate that achieving this condition will likely entail an increase in the federal funds rate later this year followed by a gradual pace of tightening there after. but if the e

it's the final look at consumer behavior before the fomc decision.ards looking, but we already know that decent auto sales should feed into a healthy again. joe: and the consumer is everything. i'm also looking at capacity utilization tomorrow. that feeds through to inflation as industrial capacity tightens. i will be watching that theoretically, prices rise, soi will be watching that tomorrow. ♪ announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." charlie: we begin tonight with the migrant crisis, with the number rising sharply in the last month, people making a dangerous journey from syria and iraq, starting a conversation, and president obama said the u.s. would take in 10,000 refugees year, and germany announced it is expecting 800,000 asylum seekers and refugees by the end of the year. the go

. >> for most fomc par gattticipa including myself we think this will entail in increasing the rate this year. >> more heads are expected to role amid a growing pile of investigations and lawsuits. >> abenomics under pressure. prompting talk of further easing. >> get in line. apple fans form queues as the new iphone 6s goes on sale. >> good friday morning. i'm susan lee. coming up on the program, a nice seafood dinner but will he call back. it's lobster on the menu as president obama and president xi jinping meet up in washington defendant d.c. >> and is this the end of the line for the flash crash. and find out how nike is staying ahead of the pack when it comes to sales. >> welcome to the show. now the federal reserve continues to hedge it's bets. speaking last night, chair janet yellen said the fomc expects conditions to be right to raise rates this year but caveated that by saying if the economy surprises to the down side judgments would change. >> given the highly uncertain nature of the outlook one might ask why not hold off raising the federal funds rate until the economy has reac

see there wasuou one member of the fomc thinking about negative rates? is a signal for those were expecting rates to be at 2% or 3 % next year. they are applying their academic thinking into policies. i think it is a reflection of the personal opinion of where policy should be, not necessarily where it will be. rishaad: the p.c. deflator is what they love looking at. that has been softening and softening. hang on, actually. looking domestically, we are not going to move. >> i think that is obviously one very important -- wage growth is number one. . to some extent, janet yellen -- last night, they mentioned these measures are tempora. the strong dollar, -- these measures are temporary. so, from that perspective, we are aware these are typically factors. the question is how quickly will they disappear from the picture? ia emerging markets, we are back to where we were yesterday. the sense of anticipation, when does the fed hike? is that threat going to keep hanging over asia? >> unfortunately, yes. there are a lot of people i've spoken to who said let's g

the fomc meeting kicks off. he tells cnbc exclusively it's time for lift off. >> the underlying economic data in the u.s. warrants a rate hike. the economy, the u.s. economy can stand it. >> a late stage rally sending chinese shares sharply higher posting the best single day gain this month and fuelling speculation that the government has once again intervened in the market. >> a shining performance. all three stocks jump on better than expected earnings despite weakness in china. >> up to 30,000 jobs are set to go at the enterprise business sending shares down in after hours. cnbc will speak exclusively to meg whitman later on today. >> let's check in on european markets and how they're performing after the rally we saw on wall street as we have the fomc entering the two damon tear policy meeting. let's check in with breaking news coming in from the employment figures. >> sterling hit days high of 1583 at the moment. u.k. unemployment data has come in. average earnings coming in at plus 2.9% which is where it w

four fomc members see a hike after 2015. that's up from two.hree in 2016, one in 201 seeing the first hike there. they lowered the long run outlook for the funds rate. they're more pessimistic on hitting inflation target and more pessimistic on growth. i want to just tell you a little bit about the talk about the economy. they're saying the economy expanded at a moderate pace, that household spending increased moderately, and housing improved further. let me get now to some of the information in the forecast here. three in 2016 and one in 2017. so four now beyond 2015 for that first rate hike. and really in the statement there's no hawkish side of this that many expected if they didn't hike. it's still really ultimately a very dovish statement. on the outlook for the funds rate, they lowered it by 0.2% in 2015 and '16 and by 0.3% by 2017. the long run rate now 3.5%. they brought that down by 0.3 of a point. they brought down the unemployment rate and they also are not hitting their 2% inflation target until it looks like 2018, brian. i'm just g

it's the final look at consumer behavior before the fomc decision.ow that decent auto sales should feed into a healthy again. joe: and the consumer is everything. i'm also looking at capacity utilization tomorrow. that feeds through to inflation as industrial capacity tightens. i will be watching that tomorrow. scarlet: that's all for "what'd you miss?" emily: investors grow even more cautious about china's economy, but -- but could its growing internet industry give beijing a much-needed boost? i'm emily chang and this is "lumber west." alibaba fights back against the critical article. want to build a self driving car? tom-tom says no problem. and preparing to take san francisco with dreamf

the fomc meeting begins in washington and economists stay divided.ays the markets are vulnerable. the shanghai composite now facing a today losing streak. the worst-performing stock on the ftse 100 in 2015. ahead of the open, 20 seconds away. ftse futures are higher. a big surge in china to discuss. let's get the european market open first. echoine: like that rally -- yeley -- why the rally? two months of growth in the u.s., that seems to be tempering some of the risk taking or is it just that people are short covering and are getting in and trying to get out of their short bet ahead of the federal rate reserve. are trying toy understand what is behind the rally at the moment. 40 up zero point percent. whatever the case, volumes are lower. u.s. equities

heading into that vote later on today there's a dovish slant around the fomc table. >> the only hawk is jeffrey lacquer. stanley fisher, dennis lockhart and jon williams as well. in the dovish camp, janet yellen, william dudly and charles evans. cnbc has been speaking to the federal reserve presidents and their views on monetary policy. >> my preference is that we don't have the most telegraphed decisions as in 2004. data dependence is what we should be doing. >> from my perspective at this moment the decision to begin the normalization process at the september fomc meeting less compelling than a few weeks ago. >> i have been talking about the normalization of rates for sometime. this week's events complicate the picture but i think it's too soon to say it fundamentally changes that picture. >> the economy is returning to normal. we're not sure we're there yet. >> we're ahead of the fed decision. xetra dax just a touch higher but a little bit of weakness elsewhere. big deal in the cable space with altice and friends buying cablevision. asian markets were in rally mode ahead of the fe

these are the factors i think the markets had expected, already expected to hear from the fomc. that said, i think that in addition after hearing the comments by chair yellen at the press conference, i think another measuring prompt would be the prospects of 2% inflation in term. that wou be problematic to the policy. >> the fed's meeting in october and in december, and fed chief yellen gave hints in her news conference, but when do you see the fed moving on rates, and could it be as early as next month. yeah. think that the -- they conduct appropriate management for the policy by the fed. i think that the factor or most important factor will be the near term future cost of development of u.s. fundamental economy so that's why i believe, in my ew, that the december meeting will approiate because it's the time when the fomc members can revise their own advocacies next time. >> there's the emerging economies throughout the year because of the higher rates and stronger dollar. what's you take on the effect for japan, and specifically, china. >> yeah, this is a very important questi

a year ago the fomc said it would not start shrinking the balance sheet until it started raising the funds rate. so is it a concern that you are delaying normalization of the balance sheet? was that an issue that you and your colleagues discussed? thank you. >> we have been, and this was reported in the minutes of our july meeting, we have been discussing reinvestment policy. our normalization principles indicated that we would not begin to either reduce or eliminate reinvestments until after we have begun to raise the federal funds rate. our principals said that the -- our principles said that the exact timing of that would depend on economic and financial conditions and our evaluation of them. and that guidance continues to be accurate. we don't have anything further on it. but it is certainly true that we have committed to wait to begin running down our balance sheet until after we've become the process of normalization. so, yes, if we defer, this is not a very large matter that we are talking about from a stimulus point of view. but it is to some extent true that if we delay rais

two year treasury yields are spiking as the fomc kicks off. telling cnbc exclusively that it's time for lift off. >> the underlying economic data in the u.s. warrant a rate hike. the u.s. city can stand it. >> up to 30,000 jobs set to go at hewlett-packard's enterprise business sending shares down after hours. cnbc speaks to meg whitman later today. >> strike averted. fiat chrysler seals a deal with the uaw. it will end the controversial two tier pay system. >> founder mark zuckerberg makes a u-turn on the dislike button in response to user demand. >>> let's check in on u.s. futures and what they're indicating for the u.s. market open. we had a pretty good session last night. rally of 1.5%. really across the board. u.s. futures are telling us we're not looking at much movement out of the gate. the s&p 500 the implied open. we're down marginally, pretty much flat. the tow jones industrial is look at gains at 9 points and the tech heavy nasdaq looking at a decline of one point or so. >> just going to quickly jump in there and bring some flashes

francine: the fomc prepares for its crucial september meeting. is the world economy about the strengthened by the fed? the new labor leader prepares for his first comments clash with the prime minister and we speak to a top labor donors urging people to stay loyal to the party. welcome to "the pulse." i am francine lacqua. european markets are up this morning following from gains in asia and the world's count down to the federal reserve policy decision. members of the fomc begin their crucial meeting later today. for more on how the markets are cross straight over to mark. mark: gains, but why? that is the big question. because the odds of a rate increase our 32% and on monday it was twice 6%. so investors are less certain that the fed won't raise interest rates. 50-50 asked much whether they think they will raise rates. china did rising and what it always does is bounceback in the last hour. two-day three-day. it was lower 75 minutes ahead of the close. all the way up today and closing up by 4.9%. rose as highst 5.9% which was the biggest rally

the vote on the fomc last night. and drug he had to send it last night -- would had -- a and a druggie to boost inflation. what you got yesterday was a stronger euro and yen. this that increase that those two central banks need to respond? what i need for my show is someone that knows something about the bond market. i want to go to pimco. guy: looking for to that, jon. let me leave the program with a look at how the market story has been developing. this is the german 10 year. the reaction, yields coming lower here it -- lower. european equities, this is what we're looking at. a softer open. .5%. a softer open. you in the hands of jon ferro. see you monday. ♪ jonathan: good morning and happy friday, welcome to "on the move." i am in london, moments away from the start of european trading. let's get straight to your morning brief. hikes in global risks, tighter financial conditions, and stock inflation forces the federal reserve to keep monetary policy unchanged. is it a case of one and done? the u.s. bank signals a

pimm: it is the count down to the fomc.ors will pay to settle the government investigation of all to ignition switches, but they will hold a press conference to give details at exactly the same time as the fed announcement. pimm: crude oil prices are main the subject of debate. prices from opec. details ahead. matt: good fed day morning. i'm matt miller. pimm: i'm pimm fox. we are 90 minutes into the trading day. let's look at how markets are trading right now. ..s. stocks a little higher

francine: the fomc prepares for its crucial september meeting. is the world economy about the strengthened by the fed? the new labor leader prepares for his first comments clash with the prime minister and we speak to a top labor donors urging people to stay loyal to the party. welcome to "the pulse." i am fran

something acknowledged in the fomc statement last night. if the fed is getting boxed in, the opportunities to raise rates are looking limited. the dollar is closing. concern of the international developments referred to in the fomc , i think investors are that the external situation is worsening. the fed is losing control, is at the mercy of external events. risk offorward, if the a made in china global recession is going to increase, then the dollar is closing on the fed possibility to raise interest rates at home. matt: if you look at fed funds futures, they are only pricing in a 44% chance that investors -- that the federal reserve raises rates at the december meeting. is 2016.ly what do you think about the probability of a move this year? >> investors are beginning to think that the opportunity for interest rate increases is diminishing. that's why the market's giving these relatively low probabilities. -- a loto reason depends on what happens in china. maybe we should be listening to the guys at the people's bank of china. what's happe

they thought this month by recent remarks by fomc member show some disagreement. nicole: i can't even breathe waiting for the fed. what will they do? the debate goes on in '-begin-single-quote spirit it just shows the disagreement about whether they should raise. >> at night not make much of a difference. everyone trying to figure out what they will do. and asia down arrows for hong kong and japan down 2.5%. nicole: we still have junk rating this morning. pressure in europe at the cac down half of a percent. dax down 47. lauren: how were we shaping in the u.s.? dataset 57 points in the s&p and nasdaq about a third of 1% higher as well. nicole: here is a look right now. [applause] >> we believe it is the future of television. train for television. train for 10 cooks seeking to thousand of analysts and journalists in san francisco. okay showing off the latest product from apple. also a bigger odds ipad and a new iphone. investors aren't as impressed as the crowd listening to mr. cook. you can see apple shares fell about 2% yesterday, the slightly higher in the prema

interestingly, the other thing on investors' minds is the fomc. we have-day meeting, seen the dollar drop off by 2/10 of a percent. we would see any sort of rate hike come september. those futures funds tend to signal a 28% rise likelihood of the federal rate hike come september. much more probability later in the year, but money is being taken off the table when it comes to the dollar. on the flipside that is where you were seeing most of the trading. the euro is up some 2/10 of a percent, not music to mario draghi sears. -- draghi's ears. we have some interesting stories out there for you. one is in focus because of talk about the strategic reviews that could be coming as soon as october. there is a rice discussion in the market about whether they could the uploading a u.s. private banking unit. all eyes are ahead. visuel is up 3% and we could see the private media companies and friends rally after a big government u-turn. there was talk they could reintroduce evening advertising on tv. with a destabilize the media companies in terms of revenue

to sip prizes affecting the outlook for economic activity, as with those affecting inflation, the fomc would need to adjust the stance of policy so that her actions remain consistent with inflation returning to our 2% objective over the medium-term in the context of maximum employment. given the highly uncertain nature of the outlook, one might ask, why not hold off raising the federal funds rate until the economy has reached full employment and inflation is actually back at 2%? the difficulty with this strategy is that monetary policy affects real activity and inflation with a substantial lag. were to delay the start of the policy normalization process for too long, we would likely in that having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. and an abrupt tightening perhaps inadvertently pushing the economy into recession. in addition, continuing to hold short-term interest rates near zero will after real activity has returned to normal and headwinds of faded could encourage excessive leverage in other forms of inappropria

compared with the projections made in june, many fomc participants lowered somewhat their past to the fact that cap -- paths to the federal funds rate. most participants continue to expect economic conditions will make it appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate later this year. although four participants now expect with such conditions, they will not be seen until next your later. the median projection for the federal funds rate rises to and 2% in late 2017 and 3.5% in 2018. 2016 and 2017, the medians are about .25% below those projected in june. the media projected rate in 2017 remains below the rated most participants expect to prevail in the longer run despite the fact the median and inflation close to the 2% objective. a numbernts provided of destinations for their low federal funds rate projections. particular,ed in the residual effects of financial crisis, which are likely to continue to strain spending for some time, as well as headwinds from abroad. the restraining influence of , ase selectors -- factors the restraining influence of these factors unrea

compared with the projections made in june, many fomc participants lowered somewhat their past to the fact that cap -- paths to the federal funds rate. most participants continue to expect economic conditions will make it appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate later this year. although four participants now expect with such conditions, they will not be seen until next your later. the median projection for the federal funds rate rises to and 2% in late 2017 and 3.5% in 2018. 2016 and 2017, the medians are about .25% below those projected in june. the media projected rate in 2017 remains below the rated most participants expect to prevail in the longer run despite the fact the median and inflation close to the 2% objective. a numbernts provided of destinations for their low federal funds rate projections. particular,ed in the residual effects of financial crisis, which are likely to continue to strain spending for some time, as well as headwinds from abroad. the restraining influence of , ase selectors -- factors the restraining influence of these factors unrea

most fomc participants including myself, that is the quote from janet yellen. we'll get to that.

another guest to correctly predict, the fomc holding fire.y tuned for that. ♪ this is a great place to work. not because they have yoga meetings and a juice bar. because they're getting comcast business internet. comcast business offers convenient installation appointments that work around your schedule. and it takes- done. - about an hour. get reliable internet that's up to five times faster than dsl from the phone company. call 800-501-6000 to switch today. perks are nice. but the best thing you can give your business is comcast business. comcast business. built for business. great time for a shiny floor wax, no? not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about. i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for busine

i think the fomc itself has seen that.r, it may have a bit further to go. and that is more of a long-term thing. let me add one big thing that you didn't mention which i do a lot of work on.. and that is the behavior of foreign countries and just the foreign government in terms of saving and investments. it used to be that developing countries would borrow for development and then they would borrow from us and they would invest and we would export to them and we would grow. there were problems with that strategy. about ten yearsrójo ago after t crisis, kins really made a strategy. and what you see now is countries don't borrow for development as on the scale they did before and, in fact, on average emerging markets, thev6a r vast net lenders. we have a mad of money coming in and going out that we never had before. that is contributed to low interest rates in the u.s. it is also holding the recovery back to some extent. normally in a recession, when we have a trade deficit going into the recession, it goes away during the r

they should target zero like many former fomc members but cpi today, 1.8%, the core year-over-year. i know they don't follow the cpi. they follow the pc. enough., 2.0, close i think they just need to move so they get off of this zero lower bound, short end of the yield curve be determined by markets, instead of by phony baloney things, and then of course we will all or you they going to move again? if they do move i am sure they will reiterate we intend to be gradual and cautious. i don't know anybody who thinks if they do move they will move any more rapidly than every other meeting and it could easily be every third or fourth meeting. they are dated dependent and to me the data are screaming move rates up now. alix: jim smith, very passionate. we also liked your dog. thank you for joining us. joe: what university is getting paid interest on a bond issued in 1648? the answer, after the break. ♪ alix: before the break we asked which university is being part -- paid on a bond since 1648? joe: the answer is yell university. yale university. alix: we do want to get to the top headlines

you have this fomc, the fed meeting that sets interest rates, fomc meets the week after the deadline.tdown, could this influence janet yellen? >> i say there is never a good time to raise rates. when you look at this happening, you could almost argue they should have done it by now. they should have -- it is never a good time to start a diet. never a good time to raise interest rates. let me switch gears and ask you about donald trump. he will unveil his tax plan at 11:00 a.m. we will carry all of the details. he talked about it on "60 minutes." listen to what he said. >> there will be a large segment of our country that will have a zero rate. that's something i haven't told anybody. >> you are talking about? >> people in the low income brackets that are supposed to be paying taxes. many don't anyway. >> we know these broad brush strokes. the lowest bracket is 10%. the substance portion do not pay taxes because the way the tax code is written to give them benefits. cut corporate taxes. change that carried interest. does this sound like a presidential tax plan to you? >> two quick comm

♪ cause -- the fomc fomc's decision to not raise interest rates make moderate -- may make mario draghi'sicult. mario draghi may end up having to do more qe. hans: it comes down to the question for both janet yellen and mario draghi of how data dependent they are. mario draghi wants inflation to be higher. he seemed to be more concerned about the overall pace of gdp, how actual things are taking place. if they are data dependent, it looks more likely you will have an extended and expanded quantitative easing by mario draghi. there has been a lot of talk about currencies so far this morning. yes, the euro is strengthening against the dollar. the euro was almost up to $1.40. now it is down to the $1.14 range. if you look at what has happened in terms of exports, eu exports, you see a 20% increase from 2014 to 2015. the euro was trading at a much higher level. yes, the euro has moved a little bit. francine: when is the next opportunity? when is the next opportunity for mario draghi to do something? hans: i thought you were going to ask me on janet yellen's next opportunity. she has a speech

the swing from peak to trough moves40, the smallest meeting.ore the fomc with treasuries, a pretty clear-cut direction, but we are not getting that much in terms of movement. we do have lower prices, higher yields. the 10-year yield moving up. there is no clarity on what the fed does next, and the parade of fed speakers only serves to confuse the markets. as one person said, we are in purgatory right now. earnings, we do not get that until the second week of october. in foreign exchange, the euro is gaining ground because mario draghi says it is too soon it to see. time, andeds more they need more time. you get the idea, don't you? come inside the bloomberg terminal right now, because i want to show you one of the most popular functions on the terminal. this is a snapshot of what is going on in global equity markets, but what i want you to pay attention to now is this. this is volume, and the volume is at leastnd s&p 9% below the 10-day average, so we are not seeing a lot of activity. we are supposed to see a pickup in trading. we are not getting it right now because people do not know what

fomc's debate within the as to where the inflationary pressures going to come from?e fed has so does the ecb, it is out of their control. why are they hanging onto this? ignore that and focus on growth. dualw: the fed has a mandate. they cannot control the energy price. the has been a big driver of why headline inflation has come down. core inflation is stable. the fed with the dual mandate of ensuring the growth, they want to be careful they do not put the brakes on too soon. they equally do not want to wait too long and have to put the brakes on really hard. you put yourdy money? we've had a little bit of a correction in equity markets. probably going to see more of a correction? go intohe right time to fixed income? it is tough to make money. andrew: it is tough around the world. interest rates remain low. you got to recalibrate your return expectations. fixed income is not going to get you double-digit returns. there are still some opportunities in the corporate market. the dislocations both because of the energy sector as well as some concerns about tightening h

and how much will that factor into what the fed decides on september isth at fomc meeting when they decide the future of interest rates, at least for here and now. this report, everyone is incredibly important. peter will continue going through it right now because it is really freshest indicator we have how the fed is thinking. you know investors want to get inside of their heads, because, like it or not this market is very dependent on fed moves. we ticked slightly higher, up 1.3%, up 215. investors not getting takeaway that the fed will necessarily move come september. adam shapiro joining us with reaction there on the floor of the new york stock exchange. are people encouraged by this at all or are they still working through the details? >> they're working through the details. want to point out when peter reported fed numbers, dow was trading at 194. it has shot up to almost 210 points. not a huge jump. s&p went up two, three points when peter started talking about the fed numbers. the real numbers they're paying attention to here on the floor even though we're heading into the labor d

heading into today's decision there's a dovish slant around the fomc table. the only out right hawk is richmond president jeffrey lacquer there on the bottom right. vice chairman stanley fisher, lockhart and williams. but in the dovish camp is janet yellen at the head of the table and also daniel, william dudley and charles evans. now in the weeks and months leading up to today cnbc has been speaking to some of the fed presidents about their views on monetary policy. >> my personal preference is that we don't have the most telegraphed policy decisions like we did in 2004. i do believe that at a at a dependence is what we should be doing. >> the decision to begin the normalization process at the september fomc meeting is less compelling than a couple of weeks ago. >> i have been talking about the normalization of rates for sometime. this week's events complicate the picture but it's too soon to say it fundamentally changes that picture. in my own view the normalization process needs to begin and the economy is performing in a way it's prepared to take that. >>

bringne is being told, debt to market and do it ahead of the fomc, so i suspect we will see potentialrday's record broken in the next days as there is a huge push post summer to get deals on the table. there are a lot of big stock buybacks announced earlier and some m&a deals that have not been financed. i would not be shocked to see some $10 billion, really megadeals get announced in the next few days as people rushed to get ahead of the fomc. tchir that is peter who will stay for us for a moment. we say goodbye to tracy. thank you. scarlet: let's check in with julie hyman in equities. it looks like we have a second day of declines. julie: that's a big, however. we had the reversal and features that had been climbing and we had a big swing downward. looks like that downward momentum is intact as the regular session does begin. only barely asked all three majors are down, less than .1 of 1%. we will see what happens as the session progresses. next commodity trading. oil is higher, so we will see if that is enough to support the markets as energy stocks are on the rise. in terms of ind

janet yellen and fomc decided global economic uncertainty. >> nice to be with you. understandablyas a lot of interest in the fact ont there was so much focus the international situation. certainly i will recognize that. also, maybe there were not as many comments i did not last as long but she showed a lot about the outlook for in patient. if you are going to understand that policy policy and clearly, you first have to look at the mandate and where they are in relation. while heard was that labor markets may not be fully where they need to be, there is a little bit of slack. basically, they are not worried about inflation mandate so much. it looks because of these transitory things that the inflation outlook is going to be weak even longer. i think that was probably the main thing that drove the decision. it was supplemented i the decision on the international side but not driven by it. i have lost my sound. tom: you put your your back in there. in there.k tom: we thank you for listening. two year yield .6815. that is way in. that is the titanic 13 basis point move.

with constant at diction to fomc pump priming. i think we reached end of that rope. that is a very dangerous thing for investors. trish: teddy, they served and relevance at certain time and place, when we think back to the scary days of 08, they were there. they kept the spigot open. they had liquidity in the marketplace and they have kept that open and open. to the point where this may be a situation, law, teddy of diminishing returns. >> i think you're immediate previous guest hit the nail on the head i think they have way overstayed their welcome. they're way overthinking the problem. there is too much rhetoric creating too much uncertainty, lack of confidence. all, if you mix it all together it is an ingredient for negative markets because markets -- trish: i just want to jump in. she is talking again on thursday. we're going to hear some more. what is the market going to do when they hear that? >> you know what? i've been doing this a long time, i think your other panelists know this also, you can't talk markets up, you can't talk markets down of the people have

fomc is lowering medium long term fed funds outlook to 3 1/2%. down from 3.8%. neil: what does that mean? >> telling you fed fund will be lower for longer. that's what we all know because the fed did not raise rates. but bottom line -- neil: part of the markets like that, means steady as she goes environment continues. others who might be behind the curve don't like that. who wins the argument. >> no alternatives for people's money. you're not making money in your savings account or money market. not making money anywhere -- neil: good for the markets? >> good for the markets long term. >> the fed has lost so much credibility with this. this is such a joke, whether they do it now or december -- who mentioned october? this is like, we're in never-never land. neil: we could have another special in october. i say we do this at olive garden? >> yeah. >> i might vote, i never would say, ron paul because -- >> you said what. >> vote for ron paul. i never thought i say that. he wants to get rid of the fed. these guys are jokes. they're -- >> what i said was this fed wa

we're dealing with people at fomc they're not talking or thinking like you. >> yeah, exactly. all this, i got to tell you, we have, we have been below 300,000 on initial claims for 29 weeks in a row. last month we had 173,000 new jobs. somehow that turned into sign of recession. i think people have gone nuts. we don't look at facts anymore. we don't look at, we're not being serious about this. do you really think that apple thinks a global recession is coming and therefore they're growing to announce a new electric car? i mean, they don't care what the fed does. they're going to move and be a good company and make lots of profits and all of this focus on the fed i think is taking us off the right picture. trish: kimberly, they kind of put us in that position last several years. they made themselves the focus. they tell us every step of the way what they plan on doing. every single one of their members is talking to press constantly. as such you have a market and seem of investors that are overly reliant what the fed is doing. and i think there is a real fear if you take the pu

earlier, after weighing the costs associated with various rates of inflation, the fomc decided that 2% inflation is an appropriate operational definition of its longer run price objectives. in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, however, achieving both this objective and full employment,

so the s&p 500 is up an average of 0.49% in the 24 hours before an fomc announcement.his was a huge piece of news on the trading desk. this is the most important point they came to. this accounts for 80%, these eight times a year gains, accounts for 80% of the annual realized excess stock returns in the s&p 500. this got huge play on trading deb desks. the paper concluded that there were no similar effects in treasuries. they also noticed no similar affects in any other kind of macro economic news like the gdp. this seem s to be a unique effect. they saw some modest effect in other stock markets, but the biggest one was with the s&p 500. so there is some clear quantitative announcement that that kind of effect is real. the dow is up 40 points. back to you. >> we're watching some of these yields and the curve. let's get to the bond pits. let's get to rick santelli. >> is the deserve party over? i think it is. some of the people speaking up to nor rate increase are those that will most be affected. the big banks, big banks, they've enjoyed this. lots of business and acce

productivity growth, and pieces together add up to exactly the decision that chairman yellen and the fomc made, hold rates, don't move now, and even lower going into the future. alix: there is one chart going against what you are saying, tom, and it comes to us from deutsche bank. people who are available to work joba job opening is -- per opening is falling. the idea being there is not enough workers for jobs out there is the economy transforms. that's great, of course. job openings are up and it is time for employers to raise wages. as mike was saying, the proper chairs way up what -- profit share is way up over what it has been historically. put it back in the hands of working folks, working families. employers in this country have some strange of you that -- strange view that you don't have to raise rates in a tight market. one for theber nation come economic priority number one, on the way to get there is to keep rates low, let the economy continued to grow, let market forces then drive up wages in the way that they should. joe: much more ahead with our guests, tom palley and mike ko