the fomc voted to maintain the status quo late last night.nny blanchflower joins us from new hampshire. his first interview of the day. thank you so much. what do you make of what we heard yesterday from the fed? is this a pivot towards december? >> here we go again. we really would like to raise rates. ways, -- the data does not suggest they should go. inflation, there is no wage growth, and everybody else is easing. we will see on the strengthening dollar, not very great numbers coming out of big american companies. ford reports for earnings this week. -- reported for earnings this week. -- poor earnings this week. this is really wishful thinking. much ado about nothing. i suspect there is a big split within the community -- the committee. manus: a very good day to you. -- this is one of the interesting facts. i read a piece overnight and he is quite impressed by the unity that we have seen, that there is only one dissenter. janet yellen has done quite a good job bringing the cabal together. it together, but we have heard quite a lot from b

what have you seen after the fomc statement? >> good morning to you, too, ram ramin. the dollar and stocks rose right after the fomc statement and i'm seeing a pretty good morning in tokyo as stocks are kicking off the day higher and it's thursday october 29th. the nikkei is opening up above the 19,000 level, up 6 cents of a percent and the broader topics is up half a percent. let's see how other regional benchmarks are looking at this morning and the south korean kospi is up. and the csx is up rather slightly. we're seeing a positive morning after rallies in new york. the dow closed up over 1% and that's almost 200 points and closed at its highest level since july and the nasdaq finished 1.3% higher, but if you take a closer look at the chart, ramin, it shows the dow wiped out the daily gains right after the statement. u.s. government bond price s extended early losses. in the commodity sector gold paired gains and turned lower because the dollar jumped and that's because the fed left the door open for a rate hike in december. market players say they were pretty surp

finally, the fomc itself has rethought where we're going to end up. the most recent survey of the fomc in the summer of economic projections happened in september. members still think they will hit the 2% target. now they think once we get out of the soup in some longer run period nominal rates will raise to 3.5 and implied real rate is going to be 1.5. so everyone thinks this longer run rate is going to fall. we do as well. our goals here on this paper are in the end to think about what this safe rate is going to be in the long run. along the way we will talk about how it behaved in the past. help us get an idea how it's going to behave in the future. our conclusions here, number one, is -- we don't have this great quote that you have to have faith in terms of what you are finding. like some religious ideas maybe, they're hard to convey, hard to pin down. one reason this long run safe real rate, this equilibrium rate is hard to pin down is it's highly variable. if there once was a consensus that 2% was a reliable figure, that consensus is ill advised

look at the fomc statements. we are going to have a monetary policy designed to push the inflation rate up and unemployment down. interestift off, the rate, after we made further progress in the labor market. pretty clear to people. what is not clear is how the economy will actually perform. i think the issue is not how the that is going to react to incoming information. going to be economy strong enough to generate further improvement in the labor market to make us reasonably confident inflation will return to 2%? there is always going to be some residual uncertainty. john: you, in your remarks, a list of the factors and some sense of how you would react to those. i do not see that in this strategy statements. i heard you say it here. in the think it is there fomc statement, the press conference, the summary of economic projection. we have said what is important. growth rate economy. pressure on labor market. pushing unemployment down. and a sense this will be sustained. it is not just what is happening today bu

the september minutes of the fomc show that feelings about the u.s.invite threats from abroad. policymakers felt the slowing --wth raise risks speculation boosted stocks in asia this morning on top of the two point $5 trillion added to the value of global stocks. time, the malaysian ringgit is headed for the best week since 1998 as investors go back into riskier assets. bill gross is suing pimco. he accuses executives at the company he cofounded of pushing him out in order to get their hands on his bonus. he says he wants to expose what he says about -- he says is unethical behavior. likeis what futures look -- we are set for a decent start to friday's trading session, up on euro stocks. they are suggesting that the fed will be patient in its rate hike even though many -- it seems that the markets have gone a bit risk on as a result. around 1.3% on the euro stocks. let's have a look about how the messages from september's fomc minutes have been going down they werets -- talking points at the imf world bank annual meeting in peru and there was little c

today the dollar is taking a breather ahead of fomc meeting. it's now below 121 yen. longer term, the yen is weakening. the euro is trading slightly higher or flat ahead of the central bank meetings and major u.s. economic data due out later today including durable goods orders. i'll be back with an update in a few hours. back to you. >> thank you. investors holding off a hitle bit there. reporting live from the tokyo stock exchange. >> japan is being hit by many more typhoons than expected this year. we report on what japanese companies are doing to improve their preparedness for extreme weather and other natural disasters. >> violent winds. record-breaking heavy rain. a typhoon left big scars behind. one storm in july inflicted heavy damage in western japan. it killed 10,000 yellowtail being raised at the seafood company. the damage amounted to about 5.8 million. the company raises about 400,000 yellowtail in 40 preserves. they're cultivated for two years and then shipped around japan. officials are trying to prevent a recurrence with this, a preserve containing fis

globes around the appeared quite frustrated over their inability to anticipate the fomc interest rate and paths and in turn make their own sensible decisions. how do you react? michael: we are completely driven by the dual mandate -- mr. williams: we are completely trivial by the dual mandate objectives. we described that in our long-term goals and strategy statement. that is what is driving our decision. of course people in the markets would love to know -- are you going to do this or that? we did feed that expectation during the time of forward guidance, we are not likely to raise rates for two years. i think that that was appropriate for guidance back then. fever in such a weak economy that needed more monetary stimulus. now that the economy is stronger we will not be giving all of that guidance telling people what to do. and there is frustration because when you are data dependent people are saying that we don't know what you are going to do, but it will be driven by the progress that we made, the goals and outlooks. michael: there is more than a little bit of frustration, some sa

fomc members clearly spooked by developments overseas. they were worried about global and domestic financial market developments. they were concerned over the high level of the dollar and they were worried over the effects of slower growth in china and other emerging market countries. all of that created concern and put downward pressure on inflation. there was some lack or reduced confidence that inflation would, indeed, bounce back to the fed's 2% target. all of that said they did say their targets on the labor side were nearly met. many expected the conditions for raising rates to be in place later this year. growth was seen continuing at a moderate pace and labor slack was substantially reduced and some even said eliminated. the time for tightening was near but because of the other developments they thought it was appropriate to wait. on how the volatility in markets effected their policy decision, it didn't effect much except it effected their thoughts on the economic outlook. they were seen only having a small or transitory effect o

justealand seeing fractionally higher, not much people are waiting for the fomc decision.ralia, the asx 200 falling .4%. the australian spot is at 71 u.s. cents. that's head over to japan, the fell off yesterday. yesterday we saw that global rally. chicago nikkei futures pointing to a slightly higher open. slightly stronger yen. national australia bank shares looking like this. 1.4% down after it reported a 16% rise in full-year profit this morning. announcing a partial sale of its insurance unit. let's assess all of this with paul allen in sydney. plenty of news again this morning. let's start with that full-year result. not what analysts expected, was it? >> no, it wasn't. the headline looked good, $5.8 billion, up 16%. but the analysts were expecting much more, six point we 7 billion was the median estimate of analysts surveyed. the dividend at least was as expected, $.99. as you say, a very news rich announcement this morning. for news on the sale of the insurance unit as much as expected, as we discussed yesterday, they will sell 80% of that unit. 1.7 billion u.s. dol

they pointed out the labor market has improved considerably in made below the fomc's 2% target. dennis lockhart talked about the timetable for raising rates. >> i believe the economy remains on a satisfactory track speaking or myself, i see a liftoff decision later this year at the october or december fomc meetings as likely appropriate. david: joining us now is michael and mike. thank you for being here. has consensus changed mu andch since this announcement came out? thisere is no consensus at point. after people said it will do 2000 seen at other people say they will do it in 2015. none of it has to do with anything. at all balls run that lousy september jobs report will was not good or terrible either. it will depend upon the data. that sounds familiar. [laughter] and of the year, if the numbers do not get any worse, you now had lockhart and the new york president saying that he is still in favor of 2015. janet yellen says she is in favor of 2015. all of these people are voters. there is still a good chance it could happen this year but again, it is what the numbers tell the

ahead of the fomc meeting, which starts later today, one person is hearing both sides of the story.e has heard contrasting these from two former central bank officials. peter hooper has argued china is successfully shifting its economy away from investments and has the resources to sustain growth. coin, other side of the china faces a severe problem with the adjustment and is at risk for falling into recession. the outlook for china's economy expected to be discussed at the two day meeting starting later today. up for itsaring first airline ipo in more than a decade. indigo hoping to raise $.5 billion. enter globe aviation will also in the price span. that values indigo at $4.2 billion. 38%go has an impressive share of india's domestic air travel markets. in the past five years, its net profits grew at annual growth rates of 22.2%. china is the world's largest altruist and two online companies are joining forces which will see them control and overwhelming majority of the market. shares rallied in new york on a deal that could -- the company's control as much as 80% of china's hotel

. >> stay above 1929, and i wanted fomc to resign. liz: okay, he wants the fomc to resign. we hold off on that one. >> all right. thank you very much. 48 minutes before the closing bell rings, the dow is positive for the week. the s&p slightly positive. the september jobs report, right off the bat, we have confidence since this morning it was disappointing. but disappointing enough for the fed to leave interest rates up touched for rest of the year? our economic panel will battle it out. that panel, includes, a form reserve expert, and president obama will hold a news conference in about 40 minutes be we could get questions on syria, the oregon shooting, the jobs numbers, we're going to bring it to you live. no matter what you can find out what is going on through social media, our show in particular. @liz claman is hig my twitter handle, i am the one tweeting, i don't have someone else doing it for me, "countdown to the closing bell," live at the new york stock exchange, coming right back, stay tuned. liz: we're 43 minutes before the close, look at dow industrials up 110,

don't miss his interview with fomc member at 12 noon. ♪ >> the golden era.resident starts his weeklong visit to the u.k.. david cameron looks forward to nearly $50 billion worth of deals. slow and steady. the president of san francisco's federal reserve -- we give you an exclusive interview with john williams. and canada votes and justin audeau swept into office with

>> well, the way that path circumstance looking at the survey of the economy projections that will fomc puts out, really when liftoff circumstance one meeting here, one meeting there, this is the pacpath of interest rates aftere left off. most of us say a gradual path will be consistent with a continued economic growth. it is a gradual path up. liz: can i push you here? everyone just assumes a quarter of a percent rate hike but could it be less like 15 basis points. >> i would not 1u7 are on the -, that fine-tuning it to that level does not make sense. that is not historically what we have done, we did it way back in the day, but since modern history it has been quarters. move up a quarter, let the you know data dictate where we go from there my anticipation is that it is the economy evolves as i forecast, a gradual increase in rates. liz: listen you are not alone. you have esther george of kansas city, said, this is the time, now is the time. everyone seems to be speaking. we had jeffrey lacker who was on with pet peter barnes, then youe two fed governors who caution, wait we have to w

office september meeting of the fomc, an upbeat feeling about the u.s.my darkened by threats from abroad. officials felt china's a slowdown in growth and the threat to emerging market economies raised the risk that the dollar might strengthen further. that would make exports more expensive, and that could create an additional drag on the u.s. economy. are part of glencore's plan to cut expenditures. they already curbed copper and coal as they attempted to navigate the right of commodity prices. it briefly went to $6 billion from its market value. sab miller raised its annual cost savings target as it steps up its defense against a takeover bid. brewery is aiming to save over a billion dollars by 2020, more than double the target set last year. the move comes just days after it rebuffed a $100 billion offer of its larger rival. bill gross is suing pimco over his shocked departure last year. executives at the company he cofounded pushed him out in order to get his hand -- to get their hands on his bonus. he says he wants to expose unethical behavior. -- th

minutes from the september meeting show that the fomc was hesitant to pull the trigger on worries about global risk. most thought it was a good idea to wait but they still expect strong economic data to make a clear case for a lift off this year. >> not everyone agrees on the fed's decision to sit by and wait. he thinks the central bank should have raised rates in march of this year. he is speaking at an nyu business school event and the fed kept rates too low for too long. back in january he said he would put money on the fact that the fed would be hiking rates in 2015. let's bring in the managing director and chairman of the index committee visiting us here in london. good to see you. lovely bow tie as always. do you agree they should be hiking interest rates? >> no. i don't think they should have done it back in january or march at this point. way back then the u.s. economy looked soggy and so on. currently the economy looks a good deal better. the gdp numbers for the second quarter, the last revision look strong. there are some doubts that the unemployment report we saw recently was

in the last couple of days we've had very dovish tone out of the fomc.s that make it less likely that the fed itself will tighten because of what's happening in central banks around the world? >> absolutely. i think the ecb move, which was a strong one that we just saw, one of the most noticeable things of course was the impact on currencies. you know, janet yellen or her colleagues won't necessarily, you know, directly and explicitly address that. the fed obviously doesn't have a dollar mandate but the impact of a very strong dollar not just on u.s. exports and so forth but also as sort of a tail risk for global markets and what i mean by that is, you know, emerging market fx getting beaten up too much by an ever growing dollar. yellen has to be very cognizant of the risk. the ecb is leading the stance here and in a sense, you know, really kind of almost helping define the next moves for the fed or lack thereof i should say which means that, you know, liftoff is a lot less imminent than it was even if some of the u.s. data might suggest that it would be

the minutes of the last fomc meeting set to be released. the meeting where a lot of people thought policymakers would hike fast. not so fast. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. estment mana, we believe active management can protect capital long term. active management can tap global insights. active management can seek to outperform. that's the power of active management. [get up to 48 monthsw interest-free financing on tempur-pedic. save $300 on beautyrest and posturepedic. or choose $300 in free gifts with stearns & foster. the triple choice sale ends soon at sleep train. from and the people whought you underwhelbrought youet speeds. temperamental satellite television. introducing... underwhelming internet speeds and temperamental television... in one. welcome to the moment no one's been waiting for. the fastest internet and the best tv experience is already here with x1. only from xfinity. >>> let's go straight to julia boar zin for a news alert. >> some news on netflix. they're raising their price of their standard two s

see commodity currencies and higher ers falling today could the dollar advancing on the back of that fomc decision, leaving the scope for a possible rate hike in december. in japanese markets, we are seeing shares lower in the lunch break. we will be back in a few moments with the japanese movers. rishaad: one of the big movers in tokyo, nintendo shares down the most in nine months after the company said its new smartphone game will not be released until march. we get more on this from grace. app, wehis new game or were told it was on track and it does not seem to be that way anymore. >> actually, there was a lot of expectations after yesterday's earning announcements when the new president said he will have more details for the smartphone games coming today. everyone is surprised they are going to delay it. they said they would release the new game by the end of the year and then delayed until next march. one of the reasons the president gave to reporters this morning smartphonel launch a or device-based membership service with the timing of the smartphone game. in order to enrich the us

inflation, for most of the time since the crisis and the recession, we have been running below the fomcted 2% target. and we're currently in a globally disinflationary environment with the impact of the stronger dollar also and lower energy crisis playing their part. third factor i think, steve, is that there is a good bit of uncertainty right now, as you know, will is the debate betwwhr we've got xenlded cyclical effect or whether there is secular things going on in the economy that are changing growth potential and changing opt mall policy. i don't think the fomc is going to be able to disentangle that when -- before we have to make decisions. i do think it's probably wise not to be counting so much on past correlations, things like the philips curve which haven't been operating effectively for ten years now. and instead to really look for some tangible evidence of, for example, hiccups in wages or inflation that allow us to make informed decisions based on the evidence. >> given what's been happening with lower commodity prices and lower oil prices, the stronger dollar, it could mb m

what are you most interested in in the minutes of the fomc tomorrow?e last point, brian, all the things steve mentioned i will agree with. that's what you want to agree with. the international. how close they were to hiking rates and in particular how confident they are inflation will get back to 2%. the reason i changed is really many. it was a soft report, the employment number. two, the fact that gdp and i have been relatively bullish on growth, we will have a significant pull back on q3 activity on the back of weak net exports -- >> joe, joe. >> and the fed funds market not pricing a hike. >> i want to push back on the gdp number. are you cutting back domestic demand or is this a matter of exports and inventories? >> it is exports and inventories. the underlying consumption number should be pretty good. and what we basically have right now, steve, is an economy 70% of which the consumer is doing remarkably well -- >> so the weakness is a little overstated. >> exports aren't that big of a deal. >> it is a big deal. >> it is and is at any time -- >>

my model has always called for a november inkracrease even thoug there's no fomc meeting. that's certainly an out of consensus call. >> it sure is. we'll have to have you back in november, jeff. we don't want it to be this long again. thanks for joining us. jeff sott with raymond james. coming up, pens, papers and paper clips. meet the entrepreneur who's make back to school cool and giving back in the process. this month's bright idea is next. ♪ >>> here is what to watch next week. on thursday the federal open market committee will publish the minutes of its september policy meeting, and wall street will be watching. on the data front a report on international trade, consumer credit, among others, and alcoa will report its earnings, marking the unofficial start to the earnings season. and that is what to watch next week. >>> all right. we talk about it every year. parents can spend $200 or more per child on school supplies. those who can afford supplies, that is. teachers also spend money out of their own pockets. $500 on average. that's why one company got the bright idea

how the chinese markets fare after the golden week holiday, and if it gets the seat on the fomc.e that after this short break. ♪ jonathan: some of you will be pleased to know that the markets in china have reopened to the upside after a weeklong holiday. the shanghai index closed up nearly 3%. let's go to our chief asia economics correspondent in hong kong. enda, what is behind the china gains? are we playing catch-up or has there been a change in sentiment? enda: good morning. i just think it is a bit of a post holiday glow will stop i don't think the story on china has changed very much. it remains the same, but we are going into very important week, which will give us a string of top-tier activity data. we are going to get trade numbers, inflation numbers, gdp, which hotel is how the economy travels through september, and whether it is getting traction. beyond that, we will get the new five-year economic plan from the communist party. where they want the economy to go. we are heading into a busy few weeks on the china economy front. over the lastkly, week with what we saw on t

why is it so challenging over there at the fomc? peter: it is going to get very interesting.e have the ecb talking about negative rates, the bank of japan under pressure for more stimulus, the fed is really in a hole. it will be difficult for it to raise rates without causing volatility in the financial markets, the very thing it said it is concerned about in the first place. i think we would see a lot of volatility in the fx markets, the dollar would strengthen quite considerably and that would cause problems for the emerging markets and commodities, and everyone has tried to devalue their currency. the ecb is targeting the euro. the bank of japan has been targeting the yen. rishaad: the worst thing would be to hike rates -- peter: that would be disastrous. fomc.yellen has a divided i do not think she has a consensus at all on her committee about what to do. the hawks are just about holding the balance of power, but there are some major dissenters almost criticizing janet yellen's policy. angie: i wonder how much lack of discipline that it starts looking like for janet yelle

speak for myself, i see a liftoff decision later this year at the october war december fomc meetings is likely appropriate. reaction, i want to bring in our economic editor michael mckee. also joining us from boston is our chief u.s. economist. what is going to change in the next figures? >> we have a lot of data. the question is does the data show us a problem with the dollar were inflation? inflation is going to get a little bit better because while prices will be going back up again. price of lastil november and december you see a little bit more inflation, and a little bit less of the effect that we have seen. this is all short-term. october's off the table. december still a very life possibility. president williams yesterday they want to raise rates. offy: they want to get zero. what struck you about this? >> what struck me about his comments is that he tried to keep october in place. that hashis is a fed market expectations that are shifting that left off -- liftoff and now this dovish fed has to talk tough to keep the expectations back in 2015. faster inflation rather than low

average warm temperatures continue to cool things off as we get into the weekend will clubs at as fomc off in the distance we of partly cloudy skies the rest of. your knife it '70s and inland valley locations. east bay. shoreline bay finn francisco. opera '50s partly cloudy skies evening and then from coastal fog temperature. is 54 and the coast 55 for the day. 57 in the valley. noontime sunny skies high clouds in place. cooler temperatures tomorrow. no rain and the forecast for now. and we hallow pressure system drops down for pacific northwest in turn gives us will clouds in the morning hours. high clouds in the afternoon session of range charts as well. 5 a.m. to hand over 50 is in the valley is fed cities of the scope and still looking like mid-50s feature castro and the cloud over here and 7:00 p.m. on the coastal regions of the oakland hayward and san leandro. 10 a.m. widespread no. that. extending and the inland valley after nine hours with wind speeds tie klug. by the afternoon hours for. same pattern again to defend if. monday morning as well afternoon highs tomorrow 4:00 in t

agenda, athing on the meeting at the fomc.said -- the andad a couple of articles it is real simple all about the iphone and ratios and percentages of growth you will see in iphones. they always seem to surprise. that will be the focus of this afternoon. david kirkpatrick will join us in the second hour of surveillance and will look forward to talking to not only about our moore and facebook but the jon ferro world. the last few days, the decline in oil is front and center to west texas is $43.49. really for me, front and center. spreads, proverbial mario draghi, the federal reserve over the last couple weeks the debate over a fundamental economic concept. talk to me about how the debate is developed. it too early the morning to talk about the salutes curve? -- the phillips curve? economic models are tested. one of those is the phillips curve and where we are at the zero bound. we are exhausted. qe1, 2, 3, we are there right now. a real doubt about how that will effect monitor -- modern economics and the phillips curve. jonatha

francine lacqua in an exclusive interview, jean-claude trichet said that he trusts janet yellen and the fomc. >> i have full confidence in the open market, in janet, in all the members of the market committee, to take the right decision. they have the information, they know well what it is about. i trust them. i will not make my own guess. manus: [laughter] let's bring in alberto gallo. great to see you this monday morning. a lot to get through. the international voice on the fed, stanley fischer, saying it is very much in play, rate hike for 2015. alberto: but don't believe that. [laughter] albert: i think investors are tired of seeing it denied over and over. we think the fed missed the boat. the economy is still growing, but at a slower pace. risks to theare banking systems from emerging market. the u.s. banks and also u.s. bond markets have in lending a lot. there is now a deeper risk that the china's slowdown will affect other countries. debt,about yen-dollar around 10% of the u.s. market. manus: you said they missed the boat. wirp, that function on bloomberg -- october, 10%. christmas,

maria: that fomc minutes out today. were you expecting those minutes to show?an gold go? >> we see an increase on uncertainty, i don't think we will see enough uncertainty out of the fed. we do need to see additional quantitative easing. lot of credit risk in the market, deutsche bank coming out with negative earnings speaks to that. we are not seeing positive earnings but labour participation rates really low. where we should be at the cycle, we have positive figures across the board, and we are not seeing that. maria: we are debating whether the federal reserve should raise rates, forget raising rates, and to -- >> that is what the fomc minutes, a negative reaction for the markets. i don't think he will raise rates, the intermediate term into march at least, to seek how much. maria: even though janet yellen, there will be an increase by year end. >> that is where the fomc voted 13 of 17, to 2015. as the data comes up since that meeting, it has been sluggish, exports weighed down. it has been a deteriorating environment, i don't see it in december or march. >>

we were on the phone talking about it and i was an hour late for the fomc meeting.hich is an unheard of breach of protocol. i was trying to manage the monetary policy meeting and to prevent aig from failing. we came up with a plan. tim was the leader. we took the plan to president bush and explain to him that we had to do this very scary thing, lend all this money. to his credit, he said, do what you have to do and i will do my best to support you. he sent us over to congress. was at that moment meeting. after we explained why we needed to lend this money, why we needed to protect our financial system, the congressman said to us, very interesting, do not expect any help from us. this is your call, your decision, and your responsibility. charlie: who was at the meeting? mr. bernanke: the leaders of the house financial services and senate banking committee. the comment was made by senator reid. charlie: you have said congress was not much of a help. when you appeared before them, they were more interested in having themselves ask the tough beingons more than curious a

angie: is that enough to off-set the confidence in the labor market for the fomc this week. >> you have unemployment that keeps coming down. remember that number we had last month, it was 50, 70,000 jobs under forecast. they'll continue to look at that and all these announcements that i'm talking about are going to contribute to their concerns about that as well. so -- angie: so do you think then the market's right for having priced in pretty much keeping powder -- the month for if fmoc? >> i suspect you're going to get a good look what the markets will look like. that's a lot of chopiness and fed announcements. when you have a fully valued market based on ratios and whatever indicator you want to choose and with that high valuation it's going to make it hard for the market to move forward unless you get a real change in economic activity which we don't see right now. >> well, for a strategist like yourself how do you find value? w do you find growth in this choppiness? >> you want to under weigh things, things like energy. a lot of our tactical decisions have been around avoiding energ

obviously from the fomc statement and the minutes, people know that the volatility in financial markets volatility abroad and the prospect of the potential for downside risks to global economic growth were present for us and something we took on board and had an influence on the decision, i think. so i think there's been times in the past where we've overreacted to financial market volatility. particularly in a case like this, where it seems like the volatility is unrelated to follow the prospects for u.s. growth. it didn't seem to be a lot of information in equity market moves in august for growth prospects. didn't seem to be a lot of news that would warrant revising down the u.s. outlook materially. at times like that, it's tempting to pause for a while, but we've gotten into trouble by the past for pausing too long. for example, '98, we cut rates three times in response to the turmoil over the summer. we were dilatory taking it back, we got behind the curve in 1999. >> reporter: unfortunately, we're out of time, but we'll look to see if there is another dissent in october or later on

we heard a few people from the fomc say, hey, it was a really close call. yellen did not seem to convey that in her press conference. it turns out i think she gave a pretty accurate picture, because it sounds like most of the committee was fully on board with her pretty dovish message. more dovish rhetoric, the indianapolis fed president saying he is open to more negative fed rates. what do you think about that? do you think that is warranted? not think he is representative of anyone other than himself. yellen, you may recall, was asked about this, and she said we are not considering negative rates at all. he is about to retire, too. i would not make too much of that. i think the fed has pretty high resistance to going negative on interest rates. keep in mind we are not talking about more stimulus. the rest of the committee is talking about paradigms. speaking about stimulus, drum beats,s quiet morgan stanley and others. could we see qe4? you see qe4 versus the vix? freakinghis is people out at market volatility rather than fundamentals. is this anywhere in

jonathan: the fomc holds steady on rates but drops a line on concern about international risks.r is a live meeting. next week's pal payroll number, i know, everyone said this, every single month it is the biggest number ever since the last one and until the next one. speaking of the labor market, unemployment rate in germany comes in at 6.4%. in line with the survey. net change, minus 5,000. a little bit better than expected. the survey was minus 4 k. so much news out of germany. manus cranny standing by. i don't know with wr to start and then we have deutsche bank. nus: the deutsche bank news, they don't have a strategy problem. they have an impolicemenation problem. if you ever -- implementation problem. making a less risky business. i've written down here culture and core. changing culture and how you're going to renumerate your vem bank, one of the largest generating parts of your business. we don't have a strategy problem. we have a strategy implementation problem. he is going to change the process of retune in rapet rating people. reducing the core. that is a lot of assets

i think they want to go. 14 of the 17 fomc members have signaled they want to raise rates.ions should be they go in december. several things need to fall in place before that happens. like an easing of financial conditions. tom: it sounds like a hope. vonnie: yogi berra said there is in theory no difference between theory and practice but in practice there is. traders are saying the fed is not going to move. joachim: the market sees it as a less than 50% chance. if you look at the markets at the moment with financial conditions having tightened, at the moment it looks like they do not go. if markets calmed down, if we get further progress on the labor market and there are signs that inflation expectations star to stabilize, i think they will go. michael: will you be watching at 8:31 eastern time tomorrow, a change in market expectations. are likely to get some pickup and wages. i think the hourly earnings will be important. wage growth has been stuck around 2%. there is a chance that tomorrow we will see a pickup. i think that will increase the fed's confidence. get a goodt

fomc left off these are not seriously misaligned. universal messaging, which is one of the reasons people are so confused about what the fed is going to do next. david: it would serve the market interests well to have members of the fed publicly at odds with each other over the economy? >> of course not. the goal is to create some certainty for people to at least have a thought about what the future is going to look like. that is very difficult to do. we try and stay away from that stuff. giving you different kinds of information, how do you act on that? how can you invest that way? david: maybe that is the problem. forget about the traitor for the moment. the investor who wants to put money to work with confidence lacks the confidence. >> which is why you think long-term. you should eventually make money. stephanie: are janet yellen's fellow members of the fed making her job harder? they should express their views in private and publicly stand behind her. everybody has been asking for more transparency from the fed. you have to be c

janet yellen and the fomc absolutely no guts. they've missed the window. >> all right.mario, let's talk financials. bank of new york, you've got -- you have the big banks? >> let me flip a coin. it's a poor use of capital in the late 2007-twailt. they would not do anything. plus, you have sarbanes oxley, and you add the dodd frank, and i like the fact that that is a very good business model. >> he also like money managers, and it's another round of consolidation. love to hear what he has more bank stocks than i do. >> simple models. they can have huge up side if the rates -- >> well, rates have to go up, and the names will improve at some point in time. >> that's why i say to you doet -- >> if you believe the nims will will go up. >> interactive brokers. thomas, he has a lot of capital, and anyone that has a money market fund is paying negative cash flow. that's a plus. >> the up side there is huge. they talked to that affect. they'll invest more when rates move a little bit, and then the leverage, and they also have the money management business, the schwabs and td's i

i think the takeaway was that there's still -- if the fomc cannot get off the schnide and raise rates, they're not going to get any impetus from the beige book. i think the view of the overall market is that we're once again in nowhere land. we have no direction from leadership at the central bank of the united states of america. and when there's uncertainty, there's sellers. >> look at the dollar index. it's down almost a full point today. strong dollar being a big headwind. we heard it yesterday. some of these other big companies. a little bit of relief there possibly coming? >> i think the market's fairly valued. i don't know what people expect out of this market. if we're somewhere 15 to 18 times earnings, things are slow. nothing's moving all that fast. you can't expect much. but you certainly can't expect the headwind for multi-nationals bringing their money back because of the dollar. we don't expect that much, so it's a stock pickers market. you have to decide whether it's amazon or wal-mart. what's working? maybe you take a look. this is not just buy an index and hold on. you

also the fomc ends their policy meeting.ow we're looking at a higher implied open above fair value. the s&p 500 called five points higher. dow jones industrials should be up by 37 points and the nasdaq look like we're prices in gains of 16.5. >> right. the third republican primary debate gets underway tonight when the top ten polling candidates face-off at the university of colorado. now ult m polls have ben carson leading among likely iowa republican voters. the latest new york times poll shows the new york times neurologist seized a four point lead on donald trump. 26-22 while no other candidates are polling in double digits. support quadrupled since august. >> but both the gop front runners have gotten a lot of attention for their controversial comments throughout the campaign. trump kicked off his bid with an aggressive stance against illegal immigration saying that immigrants, quote, they're bringing drug or bringing crime. they're rapist and some i assume are good people. he has also come under fire for comments deemed

the more i watched janet yellen at the fed, the fomc, trying to decide whether or not to raise rates,ore i hear data dependent and listed excuses, the more i am reminded of his problem of conjecture. that is not to say that i think the fed should be raising rights -- i am slightly inclined to the larry summers you. but what i think is dangerous is permanent decision. there is an atmosphere of uncertainty around what the fed is going to do. we no longer have a clear feeling. all we are told -- it's injure says that is the worst kind of policy, because it is the absence of a strategy. manus: credibility begins -- many people are saying that the fed missed their opportunity. where do you believe they will raise rates this year? it is about credit -- the credibility of forward guidance. what do you think he would make of the credibility gap that now exists between markets and forward guidance from the central banks? niall: i think central bankers can learn from the world of geopolitics. credibility is a huge part of kissinger's theoretical framework. -- can use u.s. credibility the fed is

we have the fomc meeting next week. what is that meaning for the greenback?think we'll still fly higher here? >> i don't think they're going to tighten. i think they're going to still talk about tighten because they really want to. the dollar kind of stays stable. i think what really happens is we start to focus more on the ecb because it was extremely dovish, and they talk about new and exciting ways to pummel the your wroe. if it settles below 110.30, i think the euro could go back to 105. >> what does that mean for the greenback? we were close to 90 seconds here a couple of seconds ago. >> yeah, i don't think we see that moving the euro due to the fact that janet yellen is not going to do anything next week, and i don't think she's going to do anything in december. the dollar is going nowhere in a hurry. >> you heard it here. thanks very much, guys. have a great weekend. of course, can you get more on futures now at futures now.cnbc.com. see what some of the other traders had to say about the dollar next week. scott, back to you. >> thank you so much. comi

that the federal reserve members, the fomcs are eating too many cheeseburgers? >> no, they have to have a couple of more because they have to see this price inflation is more of an issue than they're worried about and to be less playful we see that in the new york fed survey of consumer expectations where they have come down 50 basis points over the course of the year anchored at food and energy coming down in price. so it's an important issue. >> you look at the employment levels and keep moving the goal posts in term of what full employment looks like in the u.s. we're at 18.4 million in car sales. that's an annual clip. that shows a lot of strength also in the american consumer. >> it absolutely does but in a fairly narrow portion. new cars are typically the upper 20 or 30% of the income strata which we all know is different. it isn't the entire u.s. population is doing well for job growth but you're right the top 20 or 30% is doing well. they are buying cars. >> let's also just touch on earnings in the u.s. do you think that will be a strong earnings season

i don't think the fomc is going to be able to disentangle that before we have to make decisions but i do think under these circumstances it's probably wise not to be counting so much on past correlations. things like the phillips curve which have been effective for ten years now and instead to look for some tangible evidence of, for example, pick ups in wages or inflation that allow us to make informed decisions. >> would you put yourself in the camp of one expecting a rate hike this year? >> i do want to orient toward how we're thinking about the economy. i will say that based on what i just said and based also on what one might call a risk management approach of being concerned that a premature rise might be harder to deal with than waiting a little bit longer, right now, my expectation is given where i think the economy would go. i wouldn't expect it would be appropriate to raise rates. but i want to hasten to add that is an outlook that is based on developments in the economy and our being forward looking about it. i do think there's been too much focus on a particular meeting and

other nine members of fomc voting to keep them steady. trish? trish: market falling off highs of earlier in the session. the market is now up just 84 points. i don't know that anybody anticipated that the fed was actually going to move at this point. nonetheless, this is more solidifying that the fed is essentially in a position where it can't do a lot right now as we're in a slowing economy, to move on interest rates. that is reflected as we have a market up as much as 129 as we went into the decision. the fed voting 9-1 to maintain fed funds near zero. been there six plus years. it will be there who knows how long. republicans picking nominee for next speaker. paul ryan appears to have majority of the support. if chosen he would be youngest speaker of the house in 150 years. florida congressman dan webster is not backing down. he is only candidate running against paul ryan and sending out emails to for money. blake, any real contest here? reporter: if we learned anything over last month or so, trish, first with john boehner, or kevin mccarthy,

that fomc meeting. i want to show you what's going on on the sector by sector front. in term of the worst performing sectors. what we're seeing by basic resources. that was one of the worst performing sectors. in fact the shanghai was down by 1.5% or so. banks also down by 0.1% and in terms of the best performers we have telco, autos, food and drinks. i want to show you what the markets are doing. ftse 100 up by 0.2%. the cac 40 up by .3%. the xetra dax is down quite heavily. i'm pretty sure this is yesterday's close. 10,692. the ftse mib is up by 0.7%. okay. barclays came out with news this morning as widely expected. it's confirming daily is to take over from the beginning of december. the investment banking veteran was tipped to take the top job and will be expected to reposition the lender with a focus on corporate and investment banking. shares down by 0.23%. again this had been widely speculated for a number of weeks. shouldn't come as a surprise and shouldn't be a big mover for shares. ubs shares down by 1.3%. he has re-signed from his board position at ubs to