kroszner, ofall course, a former fomc member.gramming note, tomorrow, do not miss a special edition of "what'd you miss?" in which we will -- tom: are you kidding me? scarlet: starting at 3:30 tomorrow. tom: slit my wrists. we must need to talk to every joseph: of goldman sachs -- every joseph cohen of goldman sachs as well. let's bring up the chart of where we are. this signals opportunity. we show this a lot. yellow line correction. i will put it out on bloomberg radio. in betweenetween -- a correction and a bear market. abby joseph cohen, are you lowering the boat after 11%? abby: that's a very charged question, mr. keen. let me ask a few questions and then answer. do we think this is a recession? the answer is no. you would think there are some idiosyncratic reasons why profits -- do we think there are some idiosyncratic reasons why profits -- yes, we do. some of it having to do with the currency adjustment because of the rise of the dollar. the profit picture will likely be improving in 2006 -- 2016 vs. 2015. we have,nclude,

did we really take that much away from this fomc statement yesterday? was it that much more dovish than what markets had anticipatanticipate ed? >> i think it was more dovish. if the fed had a clear conviction they were not going in march, they would have said so. they also didn't have a conviction to really want to ramp up on market expectations. i think this is the rough environment. there was no conviction within the fed. that doesn't really give markets any real conviction. >> i'm very kind of on the fence with regards to whether or not we're facing a new run of the recession or not. i listened to many analysts who say we're in a recession, you know, earnings actually aren't looking good, and then we had someone on yesterday who was saying, well, actually, things are looking rosy, don't worry about anything. the u.s. economy is a lot stronger than what we could have hoped for, and earnings season is going to be outperforming and we're seeing that already. >> we're still far from a recession, but we are extremely unbalanced. we're in a world -- you k

that is according to minutes from last month's fomc meeting.ses goingded below the lowest close in seven years. in some say that brent crude could slump to $30 in 10 days. the u.k. chancellor george 2016 is ays mission-critical year for the british economy. that as a dangerous cocktail of threats threaten the economy. is sending legislation to barack obama that would appeal obamacare. the house passed the measure yesterday following action by the senate. president obama has said he will veto the bill and republicans do not have enough to override. anna: stay with us, you have been watching these roller coaster markets. caroline: we have to put this in perspective. $2 trillion have been white -- wiped out of market valuation since we started 2016. that is in excess of the canadian gdp. on an annualrussia basis. and just 27 -- 29 minutes they lost that much. george soros is saying that global markets are facing a crisis. he says it is looking like 2008 all over again. one asset manager says this is insane. they have liquidated their socks -- stoc

importantgoing to be is see how much division there is within the fomc. they were able to get unity. that was unusual in the last year. and i suspect you are going to get a sense now that the hopes were -- the hawks remain hawks in the doves become more dovish. beid: brendan greeley will in d.c. for the fomc. mohamed el-erian what do you anticipate? >> their worried about their credibility. they're worried about their credibility. it's hard to say how profound that is. that's like a pitcher saying i'd can get my curve to break. what they are really worried about, and some members in the minutes are worried that inflation expectations are no longer anchored. they are actually dropping. this is terrible news. what it means is, we can no longer attribute tribute to the lack of inflation to just the short-term influence of the price of oil. people's attitudes of changed about what inflation is going to be, and i could create the feedback loop that will affect inflation five years down the line. david: we have heard from some numbers of the committee talking a

this fomc is willing to run the economy hot. what they have talked about in these minutes is keeping the rate of unemployment unnaturally low to get inflation up. on inflation, it's something they are very concerned about. several participants said that it was a close call, the decision to raise rates. here's a four letter word for you, credibility. they talked about the credibility of their at target. meaning that they are worried that market expectations are not coming up to 2% the way that the fed target for inflation has it. the other thing they're worried about, expectations. some members said that expectations are lower than they were for inflation. meaning that perhaps, perhaps expectations have been anchored at a lower rate and it will be more difficult to get them back up. there was a discussion of how dallas measures inflation, how cleveland measures inflation. they have to do is keep that target credible. if they use the word credibility, it means they are concerned about it. the other thing they are concerned about,

what stood out in the fomc announcement? >>> nothing.hter] despite the volatility of the market, a lot of stocks below 20% from their peaks, global stocks been tumultuous, the fed didn't say a single word about that. they didn't say anything about later this week, the q4 gdp. it looks like the consensus is less tn 1% annualized pace. when you un-annualized it you are looking at a slump ish economy. theyed has not yet -- don't meet again until march -- that they have not backed away from the prospect of four rate hikes this year. alix: so it is still on the table. >> i think the fed kept the door open. they haven't convinced the market that is the case, and fed funds rallied afterhey met. those interest rates fell. so my sense is that the federal reserve is the market less dovish than they expected. alix: we've been curious over the last few days -- we have seen a rise in long-term expectations, which is counterintuitive because oil has fallen off a cliff. you come inside the bloomberg terminal and i have charted 30 year break evens. a ra

fomc minutes and services pmi. in europe we're not hookilookinh brighter. plenty of reds across the screen. off by 0.9%. the xetra dax off by a similar percentage. many of the tech plays are suffering from the apple effect on reports of apple cutting orders for smartphones. now the latest on north korea. according to ap south korean spy agency has told lawmakers that north korea may have tested the a-bomb and not the h-bomb, not the hydrogen bomb so there's plenty of confusion as to what actually went on in north korea. now to give you a little bit of recap, north korea sparked international condemnation with an announcement saying it has successfully tested that h-bomb. in a statement they said the nuclear test was a measure for self-defense and described the u.s. as quote a gang of cruel robbers working hard to bring nuclear disaster to north korea. detection devices around the world picked up seismic activity along the country's northeast coast. alleged to be an artificial earthquake caused by the test. quick check also on the korean currency. sliding ag

are we going to get more dovish rhetoric from the fomc and the bank of japan round our way is the big open-ended question. markets need a positive catalyst right now. that's where we stand. will, sara, back to you. >> yeah, and what on earth is going on with oil. sri, thank you for the update out of singapore. back here in the u.s., a packed market agenda today. the data flow, economic, and earnings is heavy. we've got the federal reserve beginning a two-day meeting with a decision due out tomorrow afternoon. no change is expected. there will be a statement, though, along with this decision. investors are going to parse every single word. the s&p's case-shiller home price index out today. the report likely to show a solid gain in home prices. at 10:00 a.m., january consumer confidence. expected to remain unchanged, despite the market selloff. always watching those confidence numbers after market action like that. then earnings central, 3m, dupont, j&j, those are the companies reporting before the opening bell. the biggie after the bell, apple. also, at&t after the close. more on apple

some members of the fomc said expectations are lower than they were for inflation.t that means is perhaps, perhaps expectations have been anchored at a lower rate and will be even more difficult to get them back up. there was discussion of how dallas, cleveland measures inflation. how to best understand inflation. if they use the word credibility, they are concerned about. what we thought we saw was a more bearish fed. china's stock feds shows no signs of letting up. after the yuan reference rate was cut, they were forced to shut early for the second time this late. washe circuit breaker that instituted will need some tweaks. there is a halt of 15 minutes after the market falls by 5%. trading is suspended for the day at 7%. as soon as you start to get the 3% or 4% down, the market really starts to panic. everyone wants to unload their trades before trading gets suspended for the day. there is a snowball effect that makes the 7% cut off inevitable. clearly, there are going to need to be some changes. we are waiting to hear what the results are from that meeting/ . >>

we have to start with the fomc and how often they see risk.is something people do not really look at right away. this is this great chart that we put together. it shows how many fomc members of the 17 members on the committee see upside risks to their unemployment rate forecast. you can see there was a spike in september. up to six people thought it was likely the unemployment rate goes up and down. it explains why they took the path in december. it went down to two people in december which shows you they are more comfortable. joe: in the text of the minutes, it was clear inflation was going to have more anxiety. matt: that will take the front seat going forward. i think today is a perfect example of how little the jobs outlook matters compared to before liftoff. scarlet: construction jobs, we know there is tightness in that part of the labor market. does that seem to be turning around? matt: the good news is construction payrolls as a percentage of total u.s. jobs is going up. you can see it is still very low relative to precrisis. i think th

decisionave the fomc out tomorrow. what are you looking for in terms of any sort of acknowledgment about the market volatility and economic concerns that have dominated headlines to start the year? got to see we have is a delicate balancing act. the first point to make clear is the fed just about has the majority of economists on it. there are rather too many lawyers for my taste sitting on the fomc. economists live in the real world and they're more concerned with main street and wall street. they're looking at rising wages, looking at rising employment, and they're looking at a stronger housing market which has a positive wealth. ist is really concentration going to be. at the same time, the fed does not want to chuck a barrel of crude oil on the raging inferno of financial markets. they are not going to say anything which will shock the markets too much. my guess is they will continue to point to the ongoing steady pace of economic recovery. that leaves the way open to raise rates in march, providing markets that ar

the fomc meets for the first time this year later today. let's bring in the bank of japan mitsubishi's head. great to have you on. when you look at the fed, how are you expecting them to handle it? >> of course, they have to would knowledge what is happened. that is the crucial element. three weeks of volatility and turmoil, and perhaps a reference to monitoring developments abroad, which was something that was in september fomc statement. i think the other big change we have seen from lots of declines in certain asset prices, inflation expectations have come down by between 20 and 25 basis points. what the fed told us is that they are monitoring three elements -- actual and expected inflation and the labor market, in the context of their official mandate. the inflation expectation component is certainly a worry. i think actual inflation, we have had cpi. that has shown a pickup. of course the labor market has been performing very strongly. francine: are you expecting them to stick to those for hur hikes? >> well, our expectation was three.

this fomc is willing to run the economy hot.hese minutes is keeping the rate of unemployment unnaturally low to get inflation up. on inflation, it's something they are very concerned about. several participants said that it was a close call, the decision to raise rates. here's a four letter word for you, credibility. they talked about the credibility of their at target. meaning that they are worried that market

all eyes on the fomc, all eyes on the bank of japan. yes, draghi did utter some soothing words about action possibly in the march meeting, which is a live one. you can't take that away from him. but that draghi rally did not last very one, did it, in the capital markets, especially out here as well. so do we get another comfort blanket from the fomc? possibly. do we get it from the boj? maybe. does the overall impact help the markets? maybe just in the margin. but these rallies are fading very fast. very short-lived in nature. that's where we stand over here. china is back again in the center of this volatility globally. that's where we stand. back to you. >> thanks. amazing, still so much focus on the central banks. you almost forget we're in the midst of a busy earnings season. more talk about that coming up. >> we have a ton of companies reporting. also stateside this week. >> picking up here in europe on thursday. >> i just tweeted, who's bullish oil? i'd quite like to know who's bullish oil after these notes went out this morning w

the fomc widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but the big question here is, will that statement offer any hints on future hikes? will it acknowledge the recent market turmoil? here's what vanguard's global head of fixed income predicted here on cnbc yesterday. >> we expect them to dial back some of the rhetoric in terms of doing three or four rate hikes this year and continuing on that pace for next year. the market and economic conditions are just not supportive of that type of aggressive move over the course of the next year or so. >> now, as i mentioned, 2:00 p.m. eastern time, be here on cnbc. fed chair janet yellen will not be holding a press conference after the meeting, but of course investors will be parsing every single word in that statement. i think the big question is what does the fed, wilfred, say in the statement? how do they telegraph they're watching some of the pockets of weakness in the economy, notably in industrials and manufacturing, even some sluggishness in retail sales and consumption, while at the same time inspiring confidence and telling the market we're st

that's the headline from cnbc's most recent fed survey with respondents telling us they think the next fomc move will be to hike rates again but not until may. 56% of the economists, fund managers, and analysts we polled think that current market vol volatility will delay future hikes and none think the fed will choose to file today. steve liesman filed this report on survey results. >> there's been a lot of criticism of the rate hikes. but the 40 respondents to the cnbc fed survey say overwhelmingly that the quarter-point rate hike in december was the right move 80% of the 40 respondents say it was the right move. only 15% say it was a mistake. in fact, they think the federal reserve will do more. 100% say no rated hike at this meeting. 88% say the next move by the fed will be to raise rates. only 10% say will be to lower. only 3% say it will be new qe. rather than cancelling rate hie hikes, the panel believes the fed will delay them. here's the fed timeline. the next hike in the prior survey had been pril16. that's moved to may, as you can see there. may 2016. when will the balance sheet

since then we have had a variety of fomc members. there is still moderate inflation in europe.he dollar has strengthened and done a lot of heavy lifting. i think really from n economic terms they didn't need to hike in december. they did it for credibility reasons. to hike again this year? maybe not. will they? maybe not. anna: you don't think four, three, two, one. >> i don't think two or one. the first rate hike we got was a signal to the market that quantitative easing -- there is no reason for it to have been done for an economic perspective. we're expecting no rate hikes in 2016. you will end up with u.s. dollar weakness. you already have the dollar 20% overvalued ver u.s. is the euro. the dollar can only go in one direction from here which is generally weaker because of interest rate expectations. further hikes in the u.s. seem unlikely. that was echoed in davos. manus: any question to you, if i looked a 10-year government bond yields, trading lower. we lost another 1/10 of 1%. there you go. is it boring? the bonds delivered a moderately good return for january. are you c

the chair holds press conferences four times a year after fomc meetings, minutes of fomc meetings are released three weeks after each meeting and are available on the federal reserve's web site. transcripts of the meetings are released earlier than before, five years after each meeting and available on the web site, much earlier than most other central bank's released transcripts for obvious reasons. summaries of the economic forecast of participants including their projections for the most likely past of the rate are released quarterly. the board's office of the inspector general audits and investigates all the fed board. the fed board and reserve bank programs and frchg tions. these completed assessments and reviews are listed in the federal reserve's annual report. the fed releases detailed transaction level did the on th. this is relatively new, required by dodd-frank wall street reform law. clearly congress knew that the fed was not as responsive and open as it should be, and one of the things we did in dodd-frank was this reform. all securities that the fed holds are published i

as we have said, the fomc is meeting today.first time since they raise rates in december. four furthercted rate hikes. 2016 follow market seems to have done that work for them already. financial conditions of tightened material buyer estimations, the economic equivalent of four rate hikes, just coming from volatility. now we talked to what's going on with the fed great brandon, you are the expert. it's going to be behind closed doors. here's what we are looking for. barry: deutsche bank --dominic: --brendan: they did all this work to find out what we already knew to be true, which was that december was a dovish hike. they gave lots and lots of dovish signals, and they hiked anyways. s?vid: competition linguist brendan: how dovish are they feeling on what's not going to be a hiking meeting? what i'm looking for that statement -- how were they are about inflation. this is one of the things we haven't seen. if we can bring up the chart we were talking about earlier, one of the things we have been looking at is central bankers are

bullard is a centrist and voter on the fomc this year. is this the bottom? i don't think so you. first we're still dealing with the biggest issue of all -- just how much is the global economy decelerating. second, oil has not clearly bottomed. also it's not clear the fed is going to back off the aggressive rate hike policy. remember, we haven't dropped that much. right now we're in the middle a garden-variety correction. but remember, the s&p went from 700 in 2009 to 2100 in 2015. now it's only about 1900, so we're going to rally for seven years and then a garden-variety 10% correction? it just doesn't seem like that's enough. that's why the rally seemed tentative. no one is going all in, because there's still too much downside risk. for "nightly business report" i'm bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >>> as bob just reported, the global slowdown is perhaps the biggest issue facing the market, but how does an economic project spread, and then across the globe? dominic chu breaks it down. >> geffen all of the market turmoil, there's a lot of conversation, a lot of talk abo

the fomc kicks off its two-day meeting today. steve liesman will have the exclusive results of the cnbc fed survey. also in earnings central, super busy this week, especially today. we have j&j, proctor & gambl gamble, 3m reporting before the bell. apple reporting after the bell this afternoon. a lot of people watching that. the company expected to report that iphone sales increased slightly more than 1%, but that would be its slowest growth ever for the device. analysts expecting 75.5 million phones were sold in the final quarter of 2015. >> in huntington, bank shares is buying ohio rival first merit for about $3.4 billion in cash and stock. huntington offering about $20 a share. that's a 31% premium to monday's closing price. the new company will have nearly $100 billion in assets in eight states. huntington ceo will join us at 6:20 eastern time. and lululemon shares moving higher after hedge fund loan pine capital disclosed a 5% stake in the yoga wear maker. loan pine is run by stephen mandel. now owns about 6.4 million shares

but he says there's been little change in the economic outlook since that december fomc meeting, acknowledges that recent indicators have been on the softer side, but points out that labor markets look strong. 2016, he sees growth to be slightly above 2% and the unemployment rate declining further. core inflation is quite stable despite lower energy prices. here are the strengths dudley sees in the economy, consumer spending, lower oil prices, job gains, better residential investment and higher government spending. on the weakness side, the decline in energy cap x could get worse from here. notes that manufacturing has been soft, and that autos could be at a cyclical peak. a couple more comments. he is concerned about the inflation expectations or the decline in them, and it will concern him if the economy were weaker. i want to make one point here. dudley is the guy you would think of all the people being the new york fed president who would incorporate into his forecast what is happening into the market and what has happened over the past month. there's almost no mention of it. it's like he

, who knows what might happen next week, but if nothing wild happens i expect a statement from the fomco look a lot like the previous one, a kind of a status quo statement. she is no doubt scratching her head about what's going on, wondering if the fed should adjust its policy. but it's way, way too early to say anything like that publicly. so i don't think she will. >> let's turn away a little bit from the fed and toward the economy more broadly. today's unemployment claims were higher than i think a lot of people expected. yesterday inflation news basically zero inflation. and earlier this week china's slowing. are you concerned about the pace of growth in the u.s. economy? does this look like a good or a healthy economy to you? >> it looks like a mediocre economy, which unfortunately is what it's been looking like for a while. and probably in the fourth quarter worse than mediocre. a number of things such as inventory are conspiring to probably bring the fourth quarter lower than what's been the average over the last several years, 2, 2 1/4%. that's good but it's not great. certainly

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later this week, you have the fomc coming through.the short-term, we could see some rebound but longer term, we are quite bearish on equities. capital dynamics ceo says china is not what investors should be worried about. earlier, he said the real danger lurks in the u.s. >> i am more concerned with the shanghai stock market in terms on the global economy. the shanghai composite could drop back to 2002 and i think the world economy would still be where it is. what worries me the most is the and there's nothing the federal reserve can do. dropsu imagine if the ny 20%, what is the federal reserve going to do? rishaad: what can they do? >> they can't do anything. angie: that was the word from asia. rishaad: call minors and steelmakers are rising. large-scale cuts. it's all about overcapacity. withhave to get to grips it. the question is how they do it. >> misses some of the expected supply-side reforms that will be painful in the short term but good for these industries. coal and steel production facing overcapacity. council meeting frid

in addition we also have the fomc later today that is moving asset prices as well. irp.w.a.r .r. p interest rate futures. i have the chart of expectations for the march meeting. they have fallen off sharply. what investors are going to be looking for today is any indication that the fed is acknowledging the global market turmoil and potential economic turmoil and whether that will have an impact on the fed's decision-making process. foure seeing a look at interest rate increases this year. how is it working in other asset classes? we are seeing yields actually move higher. 2.04%. that sort of contradicts the idea that we would not see an increase in interest rates this year. if you look at the fx market and currencies. we have seen volatility in the u.s. dollar. the dollar versus some of the other currencies has been bouncing around. some uncertainty in the market about what the fed is going to do or more to the point what it is going to say. alix: let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. mark crumpton has more. iran's navy has warship.u.s. the agency quotes iran's navy c

david: you know what's interesting is, when you read the fomc minutes that were released yesterday, whatas really striking was all the emphasis on the downside risks to inflation. and since then we have only had the commodity complex take another big leg down. so we do have service sector inflation up in the u.s.. it has been the good sector. and that antidote just got a lot stronger. elusive movee ever towards the 2% holy grail target is push that much further into the future. toy two rate box as opposed four -- rate hikes as opposed to four is looking pretty prescient right now. betty: is that where you stand on the number of hikes this year? david: it is so situational. number they you a could be none and i could give you a number that could be four or five. it is so situational and it's not even dependent on the data. we saw in september, the fed was ready to go because of the data but was held back because of global concerns. voila, the global concerns are back on the front burner. no matter what happening on the domestic side, as long as we have local turmoil, the fed is going to b

finishing up on the dollar, day one of the fomc meeting. have plenty of coverage on that story. right. let's talk cyber security. let's go to tel aviv. let's join elliott gotkine. by one of'm joined the biggest cyber companies. great to have you with us on bloomberg television. let's get this out of the way. reports of israeli crackdown on a checkpoint. jp morgan has said -- is there any truth to those reports? >> as a public company, we cannot respond to humans. just back from a keynote interview where i talked about building a large global information company. that has always been our mission. it's going to do whatever is the right thing for a shareholders. where on a mission to secure enterprises around the world. elliott: let me rephrase it. cyberark thatout would be appealing to potential acquires? ofit's getting a lot attention because of our combined growth -- we do something that every enterprise and government needs. we have 2000 customers. we're just scratching the surface. are embarking on global expansion. elliott: you're not th

joe: today we got the fomc minutes. we are obviously in the hiking cycle.ew hikes taking a this year. what is the impact on china from a fed hiking cycle at this point? we are talking about the cycle that most people are predicting this year, that's definitely at the extreme end. china is in a perfectly reasonable position to cope with that area the problems are domestic. it's a big debt bubble. they don't have a lot of external debt. they are relatively well insulated from the fed. what decides whether china lives or dies is what the chinese decide to do. they are much less at the mercy of the fed than a lot of other countries. of course there's been great debate about the likelihood of a hard landing in china. take a listen to this. a hard landing in the stock market already. we had a hard landing in commodities. we might have a hard landing in the economy. we have a colossal credit bubble in china. viewsard landing school china as growing worse than expected, therefore on the cusp of rising unemployment. -- socialtability instability would bring the mira

not even the most dovish fomc member is below 3% for the long-term equilibrium.t really thinks the economy is going to go nowhere for a very long time. volatility,ind of though, does that create? the one-time the market has to reprice expectations, the fed has to reprice there is. doesn't that gap create traum ma? steven: the theme is that they make up the 52% inflation and they have to go to neutral very quickly wake up to 2% inflation and they have to go to mutual very quickly. i think if there is a sudden adjustment -- say, one day we wake up and the wages are picking up and it turns out we all agreed to pass the national rate and the fed has to move quicker, the economy is certainly not ready for that. scarlet: on the other hand, if the fed doesn't get there, you write that being at the central bank means never having to say you are sorry. if it is not in the realm of something we can achieve in the next 12-18 months, do you just set new targets, create new metrics to put on your dashboard to focus on? steven: if it is possible to send a delegation to venezue

julie: it is the sole piece of economic data today before the fomc decision. became it better than estimated, 544,000 new home sales in december, the annual take. 500,000 was what was estimated. this is up from 490,000 of the prior month. coming in better than had been anticipated. we have seen the lower trended markets overall. there are two culprits, apple and boeing. in particular, they are taking a big chunk out of the dow jones, accounting for about 100 14 points of the dow jones loss. boeing coming out with a forecast that trailed analyst estimates and they will be delivering fewer aircrafts. and you will hear more about apple in a moment with forecasting sales decline for the first time in more than a decade. betty: also, we have a date on oil inquiries coming up. industry trade data coming in last night. they give us a clue. the american petroleum institute same percent of the left 11 billion barrels of oil the last week, so we will get official word from the u.s. government, coming up. oil is lower by about 2%, not below $70 a barrel, but nearing the

the dollar moving lower after the fomc minutes. betty: the world bank coming out saying they are downgrading their forecast yet again to 2.9% globally from 3.3% in june. this is in line with some of the forecast from others. boost to someg a of the safe havens. julie: gold is catching a bit as we see more concern, people see a place to hide in gold today, up 1.4%. i want to touch on some of the worst performers -- apple lower on continuing concerns about what's going on with iphone demand. chevron, one of the big decliners on oil prices. a check on thet headlines with bloomberg first word news with mark crumpton at the news desk. mark: skepticism and condemnation is how the international community is reacting to north korea's claims that it conducted its first hydrogen bomb test. bill --e house says says they must have a d nuclear eyes north korea. >> it is provocative and a flagrant violation of un security council resolutions, not just one but any number of them. following a closed-door emergency session, the united nations secur

u.s.later today, the federal reserve releases the minutes from the december 15 fomc meeting at whiches were raised. will we get clues about the timing of the next move? we hope so. the markets hope so. we continue the conversation with jonathan bell. thank you for sticking around. we were talking before about some of the calls we are getting from the u.s., and you are saying we should not worry about the strength of the economy till the summer. at the moment, the markets are thinking the fed will do one thing. the fed are telling us they will be more aggressive. jonathan: the fed tells you they are going to be more aggressive because they are sending a message that everything is all right and the economy is ok and they will be able to raise rates. that is what you expect them to say. and you would expect the market to question whether that is the reality. there is a little bit of confusion with data this quart er. if we remember back to the first quarter last year, there was confusion about what data was coming through, whether the very cold january and the effects. so, there may be

i think this is a less unified fomc.they were able to unify around certain actions and has happened what subsequently, it is not their fault. china made policy mistakes that has complicated everybody's life and now we will see a much less unified fed and that matters when it comes to who is sitting in the chair. stephanie: david and i will argue that it seems no matter what janet yellen does, you hear all the other members coming out scmunified.ed, when we come back, we are talking more. plus, we will take a look at qualcomm on the way out. shares this morning are down after earnings at the weaker forecast and the smartphone maker is going on semiconductor orders. we will find out if his team is winning even if it is company is not. qualcomm shares down, take earnings week. stay with us. ♪ back.: welcome here is your latest business flash. was theficial, 2015 largest for automakers ever. themost $11 billion for year. the big reason, rising sales of suvs and the f1 50 pickup. caterpillar will keep stealing the impact of t

some of the fomc members are making us doubt their ability it reason, but they are moving ahead with this, if they are forced to do so by inflation in a environment, if rates were normal it would be easing, this will be a big deal. david: incredible, it would force them to choose between the economy or the market. the economy or the market. and we'll see how -- where they choose, they are supposed to be good for the economy not focused on the market, wit new next week, thank you, steven glad we had your mic turned on. >> thank you. david: wall street fearing 2016 frontrunner, donald trump and hillary clinton, they share a similar policy that could mean a loss of billions to wall street. >> if i become president i could not careless about my company, it is peanuts, i want to use that same up here whatever it may be, to make america rich again, and make america great again. . .. he was 34% eastern european. so i went onto ancestry, soon learned that one of our ancestors we thought was italian was eastern european. this is my ancestor who i didn't know about. he looks a little bit like

important ahead the fox news debate on thursday, the gop candidates and fomc meeting, federal reserve will talked on wednesday. have a great sunday. i'll see you tomorrow on the fox business network. \s >>> the two leading republican candidates, donald trump and ted cruz sit down with me. trump hitting back. your reaction? >> sarah is smart, and she cunning, and she's a good person. >> what about the media attack? >> they can attack. in the meantime she has one of the best records -- i will tell you ted cruz wanted her so badly, he almost cried. he's a nervous wreck. >> and a boast about himself and barack obama. cruz denouncing members of the media as out-and-out partisan. >> there's a reason they don't like the mainstream they're partisan liberals. >> every single journalist? >> they have an agenda. >>> new york values, the birthers flap and the way they're covered. >>> "national review" calls trump a hubs terr. >>> plus the press says hillary clinton is in trouble. weren't the pun debts just telling us she was inevitable? i'm howard curtis. and this is "mediabuzz." >>> just back fr

fomc minutes will be front and center for you guys too. >> they certainly will. good morning to you. it's not all brand new. it's show number four now. certainly still the first week and we're loving it over here. just missing you guys. as you said it the fed minutes will be important today but they weren't that surprising yesterday. yesterday comments there said some of the members were a close call but we knew it was a close call. otherwise they would have hiked already. the real news was from mr. fisher pointing to the fact that the expectations are too low. i do think that's pretty interesting because why hasn't the u.s. dollar in the face of that and in the face of the global uncertainty reacted more this week? . quite a lot of strong dollar expectations are priced in and it hasn't acted as the world's safe haven this week. the yen, the currency of choice for that and the yen is up some 4% against a lot of asian currencies this week putting a lot of pressure on the region there and of course currency has been front and center for asia. that's the focus today

the fomc committee and the notion a small group of people should control the price of money in this country or in any small group around the world, i think that ought to be under review. the issue isn't what's going on. reality is hitting. we can't point to the fed as responsible directly for this. the party had to end. zero interest rate policy was a price -- they kept it there long after the crisis. that's the issue. i declare that the age of transparency should be dead. it didn't turn out that we had blasted to see what was going on. what we actually had was a television. every time things weren't the picture they wanted us to see, they changed the channel. whether it was employment, the rate of unemployment, it all changed. more important, how many times today have you heard smart guests saying, oh, 292,000 wasn't really the jobs number when you look at this aspect and that aspect and the household survey and temporary workers and the holidays. it was really hardly anything. you know who we should hear that from? the fed. all along we haven't heard that from the fed. they createded thei

selloff yesterday, recoup it today, and tomorrow we've got fomc.i think investors might wait out tomorrow morning to see what really comes occupant of washington. apple -- comes out of washington. apple today, facebook tomorrow, so some pretty big earnings that could help this market. right now i think it will tend to stay higher as the week goes on. liz: well, color me green, larry shover. listen, consumer confidence for january hanging in there. the consumer looks semi-decent. and when we're looking at the case shiller home price index. this number goes back, though, it's a little delayed. it's from november, but it beat estimates too. is john corpina right when he says there's enough evidence for this market to stand on its own? >> i think he is dead right on that. i think we're underestimating the consumer. we look at the bad retail sales number, we don't realize that the consumer is spending money in other places. look at the service industry. we're so locked up with the oversold oil market, the stock market, we don't realize the consumer is d

thank you, ed, julie, most important ahead the fox news debate on thursday, the gop candidates and fomc, federal reserve will talked on wednesday. have a great sunday. i'll see you tomorrow on the fox business network. \s >>> the two leading republican candidates, donald trump and ted cruz sit down with me. trump hitting back. your reaction? >> sarah is smart, and she cunning, and she's a good person. >> what about the media attack? >> they can attack. in the meantime she has one of the best records -- i will tell you ted cruz wanted her so badly, he almost cried. he's a nervous wreck. >> and a

today is one of the most favorable days for the bulls ever in that the day before an fomc meeting has bias that's phenomenal. there's a regional fed study that indicates that something like 50 to 70% of all the gains in the stock market could be had if you just added up these days. >> there's some discussion of what investors would like to see in the fed statement this week. whether they need the fed to show support to the markets. whether they need to back away from the mention of increases in september. does any of that need to happen for the market to stay positive? >> the feds will be a little obstinate about things. at least they're carefully monitoring what's going on elsewhere and that they remain data dependent and they're going to wait for the thing to build up so that will give us a little bit of space. >> how much of this has to do with the fact that crude seems to be behaving. is that allowing people to kind of look beyond that at other things? does that mean that we should pay even closer attention to earnings this week? of course we have apple on tap after the close. tha

now the circulation is limited just by whatever the seven governors and five other members of the fomc decide. obviously, they'd like to raise rates. it's not a good idea for money to be free. if a distortion -- it makes it too easy or it overly encourages people, presumably, to make investments. on the other hand, the economy keeps sending back the wrong signals, and the rest of the world economies are, you know, basically going the other direction. the u.s. faced this in the 1920s when the federal reserve was very concerned about a depression in england. they didn't want england to lose gold and go off the gold standard, so we lowered rates really to help out england, and that really resulted in the final stage of the stock market boom in the '20s. how much janet yellen pays attention to the rest of the world, i think she's got a real problem because she's going to get into the election season, and that's going to make it tougher. i haven't answered your question though. [laughter] yes. >> hi. i wanted to ask is you about large banks that borrow overnight with other large banks or th

the fomc next week. so a lot is riding on their commentary and on their stance and also their rhettic. how dovish are they going to be? are they going to take a lead out of mario draghi's play book. you cannot take it away from the market. up almost 6% after the close. there's problems domestically. he is under a lot of scrutiny right now because of an accounting scandal apparently. so if he goes that's going to be a big, black eye for abenoics and set back for the trade deal as well. hang seng another market that overshot to the down side. overshooting to the upside as well. this is interesting. mainland china equities behaving themselves. not really going on for the ride. but stability up by well over 1%. so it's all about the central banks. are we going to get more hints or more candy from them than seeing if they do? if we do hear that then that could really feed this rally that we're seeing play out in the tail end of the week. >> european markets off 10 act at the close. a lot of dependence still o

next week we have the fomc and the bank of japan. will they deliver and take a leave out of mario draghi's play book? it's all about monetary policy and communication. how dovish are they going to be? that's where we stand. back to you. >> sri, thank you for that. we're following a developing story today. security forces have now retaken control of a popular beach side restaurant. gunmen stormed the place yesterday setting off car bombs and battling government soldiers. al shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack. 20 people were killed. >> now to our news maker of the morning. imf deputy managing director is in davos this week warning of a financial melt down citing liquidity concerns around the globe. he's joining us now live from the world economic forum. good to see you now. thanks for joining us. >> good to see you sarah, thank you. >> i want to start with the topic which is the stock market in 2016. it's been a brutal start around the world with some global markets and bear markets. you guys just put out a global forecast e