that fomc forecast that fomc members had had has not changed.dy wanted to raise rates as of threeherefore weeks ago, everybody wanted to raise rates this year. that is clear. regard toion is in the timing. the minutes were unhelpful in discerning that, but the main message is a rate hike this year is still a very good case. scarlet: with all the fed ,fficials speaking this week trying to keep september and play to give themselves maximum optionality. it creates a risk of damaging its own credibility. if they try to keep an option alive for too long and then keep not doing what they threatened to do, obviously the market doesn't particularly believe .hem i think you see this from the probabilities that the market attaches to a move in september, which are fairly low. i think that is a consequence of the fact that the fed tries to keep the option open, but then does not follow through. matt: it is interesting when we hear john wayne's talk about the neutral rate and where it should be, may be lower, when we hear that we need to nurture this inflat

>> the fomc does not sound concerned about that right now. of the parts where they talked about financial conditions, they pointed that those have actually altogether eased instead of tightened. we have stocks at all-time highs in the dollar has come down and that was a part of the minutes that was interesting as well. concerns about stocks being so high and several noted there might be financial stability risks they worried about, so it is a kind of counterbalancing point to weigh against the lack of concern about inflation but it is not clear how much that has risen in the debate at this point. been a lot of fed officials speaking lately in addition to what has been released today. which of those seems the most rush and given what we have learned in the fed minutes? whatll was interesting was phil dudley had to say yesterday. possible.rate hike is of tightening that the fed will have to do over the next year or so, those were his words, over the next year or so. todoes not necessarily speak an idea that investors are underestimating the lik

we've got a bit of fluctuation post the fomc minutes.icking up. vonnie: they say they don't think it tells us much about the september meeting. markets unchanged, feeling pretty much the same way. this is bloomberg. ♪ oliver: it is 3:00 p.m. in new york. vonnie: welcome to bloomberg markets. -- that is the takeaway from the july fed minutes. ,liver: stocks bouncing around more or less flat on the day. then, opening next week. steve on thisrom new project. we are one hour from the close of trading in one hour from the fomc minutes.

>> even the doves on the fomc are suggesting that they can afford to wait. the more hawkish members of the are taking the traditional phillips curve framework. they keep talking about resource utilization. once the implement rate falls below a certain level, you can't wait to see it in the inflation numbers. , but bear inn mind, we can wait to see it in the inflation numbers. we know what to do is inflation does go above target, we can raise rates and raise them a bit more quickly. we can't raise rates of tightening prematurely. pulse.": stay with "the there is plenty coming up, including the yen bridging the dollar. japan exports see their biggest the client since 2009. we look at the headache facing the world's third largest economy. to britainessage from germany's prime minister. hear the message from mainstream republicans, live from new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: this is "the pulse." let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. nejra: leslie has reportedly slowest sales growth -- nestle has reportedly slowest sales growth since 2009. th

we heard from her after the june fomc meeting.ould always point or not point in one way to september. .> that's what she's been doing unless she wants to go in september, which doesn't seem to be the case, that's probably exactly what we will get. build ugly was talking about how markets are underestimating how many hikes the market will have to do between now and the end of 2017. he says people are underestimating us over the next year or so. t's kind of like further out there on the horizon, we have this general sense that we are going to be doing more than the market does. but you know how quickly those plans can change. maybe it's not even that big of a disconnect right now. erik: also in september we will get a revised set of economic projections from the fomc, and a new set of docs as a result. >> a lot of people think those dots will come down. maybe 3.5% is still a little too high. they are going to have dots for 2016 as well. be a clearg to signal of what the committee is thinking, what is going to want to do, and we will

the fomc releases minutes to its july meeting later this evening.s, and officials will be looking for more evidence that the fed may be ready to move. both dennis lockhart and william dudley have suggested that the september meeting is one, and while the markets remain difficult, the odds of the fed hike rose above 50% for the first time since the brexit is nowhere near market pricing in separate hikes later in 2016. let's talk about this with richard jones, joining us now. hawkish. i'm struggling to interpret it, but the market -- maybe the media have taken that view. richard: i think as we have gotten to extremes in terms of dovish pricing, after the brexit vote, we have seen 10 year u.s. yields plummet, and they are trading within a range now, and i think people are getting excited that the december meeting is 50%, but that is not the market pricing in a rate hike in 2016. as far as investors are can turn into 2017 story. guy: you can understand the frustration of the senate and of dudley. ways, the biggest threat is that the fed does something.

in a couple of minutes the july fomc meeting will be released.e fed minutes because of the discover -- the discussion by fed officials about perhaps rethinking the fed paradigm. joe: it's interesting, they cut rates going back, cut them to zero and then embarked on qe and then decided to resident unwind qe by hiking rates. they got on this path but now that they are on it there is suddenly a lot of discussion about what is the best approach to stimulus in the first place. what was striking were the ideas that have been kicked around for a while but were not notable. we have seen dudley floating a balloon to the markets. clearly, they are trying to push -- what do we call it? maximum option now the? do you think they do that with ty?maximum optionali do you think they do that with the markets? joe: that seems entirely plausible. when thee been times minutes really diverged. the minutes was that set up the idea that they were going to get a hike at the end of the year. you can get real surprises, but i think that what you are seeing is exactly righ

we look ahead to the fomc minutes and the dollar rising.eck in where the markets are. the debate for the fed rate is on. in europe, thee ftse 100 is still soft with eight days of gains and two days of losses and the dax is off by one percentage point. basic resources of the leading loser on the back of a stronger dollar. a softer session in commodities. wti is marginally negative on the session. we will be on the front and of the yield curve on treasuries. we are looking had to the federal reserve minutes. alix: we have some premarket movers for you -- valeant is getting another upgrade at stanley. the price target is now $42. it got an upgrade earlier in the week. morgan stanley sees a clear vision for the company and perhaps new debt covenants will be modest. it's the idea they will be ok. we are also looking at analog devices which makes circuits. it raised fourth-quarter guidance. apple is their top customer at 13% of revenue for this company. we are looking at retailers. american eagle outfitters is down. mistwn brand estimates comment

. >>> fomc minutes dampening expectations of a dollar rate hike. giving tone to stocks. european shares trading higher. >> good morning. good morning. what a bumper morning it's been so far. a lot of news flow out. despite the fact we're in the middle of august market, this morning we're seeing buying back into european equities. we are called higher. yesterday we didn't see the same type of momentum kept throughout the session with our noses turning a little lower earlier in trade. hanging on to the gains. the polish market is trading a little bit off when looking at broader europe. glancing at the sectors as well and seeing where the majority of the buying is taking place this morning, you'll note oil and gas right back up there. financial services, basic resources trading higher as well. maybe though surprise given the price of oil at the moment. getting on to a commodity chat here later on in the show. about a half an hour's time or so. we hava guest on to cover exactly what is taking place in the oil market currently. imex and brent closer to 508 than 40. that rally

that is what the fomc is for.ll continue to keep our focus on issues we think are important to central banks. that was our morning must watch with esther george. hear it from every single central banker. they wanted so bad to be boring. it just is not boring. participants, it has been dead boring, but certainly, we anticipate something come friday. should it be all about that? she comes along and delivers a speech and it moves markets. alix: she says no, but the markets have a different take. joined now by the man who wrote the book on inflation, what is wrong with money? michael ashton says inflation could pick up as much as 2%. that could mean a 20% decline in stocks. welcome, michael. you agree with esther george? michael: moore esther is the prescription we really need at the fed. alix: she does want to raise rates. mike: absolutely. that that could have made a good case for hiking rates back in 2010. -- the fed could have made a good case. the unemployment rate is low. look at core inflation, medium inflation

that is what the fomc is for. we will continue to keep our focus on issues that we think are important to central banks. that is my goal for the symposium. david: that was esther george, the host of the symposium. we will have more coverage at the economic symposium throughout the day today and tomorrow. we will write down all of her speech that takes place tomorrow at 10:00 eastern time. don't miss some of the biggest voices tomorrow including james bullard, robert kaplan, and dennis lockhart. coming up, brazil's political landscape is on the verge of massive change as the impeachment trial of dillman set gets underway, and the conclusion to this process. short seller carson block is taking aim at st. jude saying pacemakers and different litters are easily compromised. the company is vigorously defending itself this afternoon, saying the allegations are absolutely untrue. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm david gura. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. it is time for the latest bloomberg business

the san francisco fed president fomc is in play for a rate move.ys that while he is not in a hurry, he does not want the economy to overheat. >> we start getting packed on the path -- getting back on the path of gradually raising rates, we can move a little quicker as needed. if we wait too long, we will not have that. we may have to move more abruptly. that is potentially a risky approach. manus: sounds like a hawkish john williams. so williams adds to the cacophony of discontent in terms of not getting on with the rate hikes. will they hike? >> they won't and here is why. i just don't think they will. they are looking at this and they fear -- this was in the academic writing of fed chair yellen. the big mistakes they have made in japan and germany were to tighten too soon. none of these numbers show them running out of capacity. none of these numbers show a wage price spiral. inflation is ticking up, but it is years away from becoming a problem. manus: that is the point. they are not facing inflation. talk to me about your note. i'm going to read

fomc heads who did not want to see that made, thinking that the u.s.my is a little less inflation prone. chair yellen, we do not know where she is in between the hawkish and dovish blank. inflation is not yet established. lasted cpi print this week was on the softer side. growth,etting good jobs no doubt about it, but were not getting much productivity, and is going to be hard for the fomc into relatively tepid income performance. i think they're going to do it. they will probably tighten by december. >> this leads me to a chart of the week. the purple line projected out -- the red line is what the overall committee inks the interest rate will be at over 3%. the blue line is the fed runs rate. if you trust williams, there is not much room to tighten. policy is not that accommodative right now, david. >> in the u.s. or in other countries? they weree issue is hoping that the fed would raise rates and do the job for us, and we hope for a fed rates rise in december. and it will continue to normalize and 2017. on thell help the euro foreign exchanges. but y

there was a hawkish court to the fomc minutes.wo big risk events but they had payroll , theys from may, brexit see the world as a safer place and outlook is about where they were in june. they envision tightening monetary policy and they think they will tighten it sometime soon. jonathan: the markets in the fed , the market is not buying it, why not? vincent: one, there is a lot of noise from the fed. there is a dovish coding to some of the minutes you have to admit. there were two fomc participants who did not think the case for tightening was made and that want to see pin placement take up more into link perhaps the u.s. economy is a little less -- prone,and preowned so they will have to be convinced and we do not know what janet yellen is, between doctors center and that dovish plank, and she will have to move her committee along. second is inflation is not debt established. last week it was on the softer side. we are getting good jobs growth, no doubt, but we are not getting much productivity. it is going to be hard for the fo

can i dare ask you which cap you would be and if you were a voting member of the fomc? we know back in june looking at the dot plot, there seems to be a split within the fomc. we know that from the debate over the last few weeks. which cap would you put yourself in? alfred: mark, i do not want to dodger question but in terms of , i immediate policy action would still be waiting for that job market report. to try to answer your question, i would like to see rates move up. that in thejustify fed can comfortably do that, i think a higher level would be a good thing for the public and the markets that we are beginning to move back to a more normal environment, so i hope it can happen. if i was on the committee and saw an unexpectedly weak report like we saw back in may, i would have to wait and think about that before favoring a move. mark: let's talk about further out. a lot has been discussed about the neutral rate and a lot has been said, and yellen referred today to how the fed has little ammo because the neutral rate could be lower than that historical level. what does

does that they represent what the fomc thinks right now -- does dudley represent what the fomc thinks right now? matt: i think he does. that doesn't mean over the next month or so or even the next three months. it could be that he has in mind something else beyond that. it is not clear that is necessarily a signal that people need to be preparing for an imminent rate increase. we will hear more from him today. maybe we will get more clarity on that. much, matt you very boesler. alan ruskin said yesterday they will be hawkish short-term. jon: a weaker dollar story, but much stronger pound as well. to take a look, simon kennedy joins us from london. retail sales, it is going to be ugly. brexit, consumers will be scared. it doesn't show in the numbers. simon: coming in much stronger than expected. way above what the median forecast was. we saw brexit in late june come sales inon was way on july -- the sun come outcome of people hit the shops, they bought more clothes. out -- thesun comes sun comes out, people hit the shops, they bought more clothes. sales will slow as unemployment picks

if we look at the minutes of the july fomc meeting, that shows no motivation for the fed to move, andlation has been a central factor in that. however, all the speeches and discussions by key fomc members over the last few weeks indicate that the u.s. economy is close to the point where a rate hike is warranted, and critical to that has been the improvement in the labor market. there is a lot of on how we are close to the point of full employment in the economy, which will boost wage growth in the upcoming period. our view is that inflation should start picking up as the drive from oil prices moderates into the fourth quarter, and that should be positive for one for the rate hike in december, in our view. yousef: all right. we will see how that plays out. chief economist at abu dhabi commercial bank joining us live. still to come on the program, a beijing-based bank is closer to the world's biggest share sale this year. we will have all the details next. stay tuned. ♪ yousef: welcome back. coastal savings bank of china said to be moving closer to what could be the world's biggest ipo

i think she will leave that for the fomc discussion when more data comes in. >> but you know the marketsill parse every word. >> of course. >> even if she doesn't say september or december or this year they will read into how she characterizes the strength of the economic recovery, how do you characterize that given what we've seen in terms of better jobs numbers but sort of lumpy and noisy everything else? >> so we've seen reasonably good job growth. we've seen reasonably robust consumption. we've seen reasonably not so good investment. both the productivity investments and the payoff from it and the amount of investment has not been very strong, and it's one of the key challenges and key issues that fed will be thinking about. if they start raising rates does that make it more difficult to get investment and make it more challenging to have more investment going forward. or is the economy sufficiently robust that we got to get going. >> you know, one reason that i think a lot of folks in the market are maybe frustrated or at least confused and tired of this process is simply because th

fomc is coming out wednesday, and u.k. data is starting to trickle out to get a full effect of how it will be affected by the economy. we expect the number two pick up as well. negative rates, plus the global bond rally and the outlook for central banks across the world with blackrock's cio rick rieder. that is coming up later in the program. jon, overall you are looking at equities still near the one-year high. positive for the year for the first time since january. you see it on the move today, up about .4%. the ftse up as well, about a quarter of a percentage point. futures in the united states possible -- futures in the united states positive as well, getting back to a record high. euro-sterling, that broke out to an august 2013 high at one point in today's session. better euro strength against that pound weakness. in a commodity market, wti crude closed out last week. positive again today, up .3%. $44.63. now at friday was all about weak retail sales. two-year note is coming in again, down a basis point. we trade at .

he is viewed as an important thought leader on the fomc. introduces a measure to deal with extreme price swings on its stock market. on monday, the company will roll out a volatility control mechanism for its largest securities. it will restrict its stock moving more than 10% during a five-minute period. the u.k. financial services industry has reportedly given up hope of universal access to the eu and stable market. the city is now seeking a bespoke deal to trade with europe with similar but stronger ties than switzerland. representatives from the industry will present their policies to theresa may next month. u.k. betting companies have abandoned their pursuit of william hill after it rejected --ir 3.1 billion pound did bid. under takeover rules, they cannot make a hostile bid for at least six months until someone else does. german chancellor angela merkel said she backs lifting russian sanctions if conditions are propelled. she said that unfortunately, she has not seen the implementation yet. her comments came during a state election cam

fomc minutes are due later today. day two of hard u.k. data. we get another piece of the post brexit economy with jobless claims do this morning. job cuts. a hedge fund shrinking its firm by 15%. up toisco plans to slash 14,000 jobs off the workforce within weeks. you are welcome. it's "countdown." i'm manus cranny. breaking news on the beer market for carlsberg. first half organic revenue rises by 4%. the market had an estimate of 3.2%. the strategy implemented across andgroup to try to cut cost take cost out of the carlsberg group. the target is to reduce their by 2022.apital that is making progress. how is their position in russia? beer volumes declined in the first half in russia. their share of the market in russia comes in at 34.8. organic operating profit rose higher than expected. they are expecting a higher than expected revenue growth, the organic operating profit, in the second half. russian market share, 34.8%. declinedan beer market 2% in the first half. these are the first half numbers coming through. waiting of ing, we are for th

position quite unlike what we used to see in the greenspan years when the different members of the fomc are behaving more like the british monetary policy committee, which has always been set up that way, with independent views and votes. for the longest time, under greenspan, there was never any sense of -- they chatted, and the chairman told them what they would do, and occasionally there would be a dissent. but now there is a spectrum and i don't think she can put that genie back in the bottle. that there is too much noise that can be damaging for markets. i think where it gets particularly damaging is where we have had occasions when the governor of the bank has been in the minority, which happened was are twice, and then the markets can get seriously confused. but i think commentators will have to get used to the fact that we are going to get different messages from different members of the excellent, -- of the fomc. remarks, there's are some people who were optimists and somewhere has missed. he gave reasons and one was i am an optimist, i think the u.s. economy will pick up. i ca

fomc minutes are due later today. day two of hard u.k. data.piece of the post brexit economy with jobless claims do this morning. job cuts. a hedge fund shrinking its firm by 15%. up toisco plans to slash 14,000 jobs off the workforce within weeks.

meets, they the fomc boj meeting in tokyo as well.t -- marks mobius does expect helicopter money and all by name i governor kuroda, but he does not reckon it will work. what is your view? i think the boj has been one of the harder ones to predict this year. we have been calling for some sort of easing since the start of the year. at the last meeting, they were disappointed. they did the bare minimum with etf's, but we are expecting more. i doubt they will name it helicopter money, but we will see some form of it coming soon. were dollar-yen is now, we have to see something from the boj. rishaad: final words about brexit, a bit like waiting for good tdot. they could do a bad deal, and that is the danger, isn't it? sterling gets weaker, doesn't it? >> it does. we are quite there is shawn stirling. we are quite bearish on sterling. there is no president for what , so thesee or expect currency will bear the brunt of that unknown and the fear of the unknown in the market. rishaad: thank you very much indeed for joining us. we will look at

saying they are not actively considering that even though it has been brought up by some members of the fomcdid note that the fed is considering 3% the long run range for the federal runs rate although wall street is pushing it much lower. she says the fed cannot -- pushes back against the fed not their reaction- has been removing the excess tightening. they could still lower rates from where they are. if you get into the bloomberg, look at function tayl . we will be speaking with john taylor later. you can see the spread between where he thinks the rate should be and where it actually is. michael mckee, we have to leave it there. mark: earlier today from jackson hole mike challenged jim bullard on the feds data model, particularly efforts to generate inflation along with kathleen hays. the datalard stands in interpretation and policy implementation. time to rethink our normalization plans and the way we are presenting our normalization plan. plotou look at that dot which has them going up any moment 200 basis points, i think that is the not -- not the right characterization so that is where

one is looking at the higher fomc rate hike. september or december.stion analysts wish to answer. but we are actually looking for a december rate hike by 25 basis points. for oil,e a bear case you will concentrate on the rate hike. that means more expensive dollar, more bearish case of gold. but if you look at what is happening in 2016, just look at history. we have bouts of stock lending fears in china. we had falling oil prices. we also have the markup from the end of 2016. the u.s. presidential elections, the brexit. everyone can agree what we can say, the truth is a full-blown consequence of the brexit is not here yet. that is because of the delay in triggering of article 50. so keep that in mind. if the triggering of article 50 may happen in 2017, that will be another wildcard into the global economy once again. due toould be supported save haven reasons in our view. so even though it is falling during of what happened that yellen speech just last week as well as from the increased probability for the rate hike. all in all, this should persist in

you can see the fomc forecast. you can see minutes. >> there is a function of bloomberg argues.s&p 500 fa. it shows where the valuations are in the fa market. you and yields are relative to what we are paying for rates. there are roughly 30,000 functions on the bloomberg. we enjoy showing you are favorites. maybe they will become your favorites. here is what function do will find useful. quicgo. you can get important information about it timely topics. this one examines the recent turmoil in turkey. president is using a failed military to to tighten his grip on power. more than 250 people died in the night of street battles and aerial bombardment's on the 15th of july, 2016. but for turks reveled is nothing new. in country experience coups 1960, 1971, 1980 and in 1997. the prime minister step down under pressure from the military. he has been encouraged by the up -- boston uprising. one and 18,000 soldiers, judges, academic and other officials have been rounded up. a division that is tearing the country apart. here is the situation. turkey's political identity echoes his younger

we have a is true divided fed, but we almost always have, that is the beauty of the fomc. some members are perhaps more equal than others. we are getting comments this morning from william dudley. he says the tide is turning as middleweight jobs continue to outpace low-wage jobs. vonnie: making hawkish statements is one thing. acting on it is a favorite thing -- very different thing. they have been making hawkish statements since 2009, that economic growth in the u.s. would pick up. everyar that statement month, that inflation is headed toward the 2% level and they feel confident about it. has not happened in eight years. it is easier to make hawkish statements because they do not want you to think nothing will happen and go more into a speculative binge. but as the fed's credibility sinks lower and lower, these hawkish statements lose their staying. i know you are not expecting a rate hike this year, but of course some are. let's say for arguments sake they could be right. if the markets are interpreting the fed's dovish, what pain could they be setting themselves up for?

you can see at the bottom of the screen the fomc forecast. >> there's a function i use that a, wheref shows where valuations are in the equity market and the thing i stare at quite a bit, looking at where dividend yields are. roughly 30,000 functions on the bloomberg, and we always enjoy you -- enjoy showing you our favorites. here is one function you will find useful, quic go. fastmportant context and insights into timely topics. this week's examines the recent turmoil in turkey. turkey's president is using a failed military coup to tighten his grip on power. more than 250 people died in a night of street battles and aerial bombardments on the 15th of july, 2016. revolt is nothing new. the country experienced coups in 1960, 1971, 1980, and the prime minister step down because of pressure from the military. the latest highlights one of turkey's biggest problems, a division tearing the country apart. here's the situation. turkey's political identity echoes its jogger v, straddling the middle east and europe, it is a nation where east meets west. the father of modern turkey is the mili

san francisco fed president john williams says septembers fomc is in play for a rate move as are all meetings. that is just a few days after he made headlines by calling for a new type of central banking. fed fund futures point to high gods at under 50% -- to hike od ds at under 50% on the year. let's turn to our guest. with me for the next half hour is michael dell. like, great to have you on the program. it has been quite a week. we had a lot of currency moves, said officials almost contradicting each other. mike: we think the fed are going to move this year. they are going to put one rate rise through, likely in december. the reason for that is we think you are starting to see wage pressures come through in the u.s. finally. now that unemployment is low, some people are concerned that if they don't move now, inflation could pick up and they would have to raise interest rates faster. i'm, i spent a lot of time rereading what john williams was proposing earlier this week. basically we are in a new normal and everything central banks have done so far hasn't done much. he's almost arg

waiting of course for janet yellen, who has, i guess kind of an outsized vote on the policy body, the fomccourse we'll be getting at 10:00 eastern tomorrow. we'll bring you those headlines first thing in the morning. liz. liz: you're in d.c. that is a fake backdrop. i shouldn't reveal that to our viewers. reporter: green screen. i'm in a warehouse in southeast washington. no, this is the real thing. it is beautiful. >> absolutely beautiful. thank you, peter. thank you. we'll see how beautiful the news is tomorrow. by the way, be sure to watch peter's interview with atlanta fed president dennis lockhart that "first on fox" interview airs at 8:50 eastern on "mornings with maria." >>> okay, we're 15 minutes to go before the closing bell rings. just when you thought the book was being turned into the latest viacom drama movie, a new chapter is unfolding. the move that has cbs chief les moonves raising some eyebrows. charlie's about to break that. more on countdown in just a second. ♪ approaching medicare eligibility? you may think you can put off checking out your medicare options until you're

the overall picture and that overall picture is more complicated but it's the case that we talk in fomcabout employment for particular groups and take that into account. fundamentally with some attention. i think a reasonable amount of attention to the situation of particular groups. >> just so you don't get only from one side you get a lot of criticism from the other size. it's not that there are concerns about brewing inflation as well as asset bubbles. is that an abiding concern of yours right now? >> well, it is always if you're a central banker. you're always thinking about that. you're always thinking about inflation and those are things we're talking about and we have seen little signs of leverage lending and so forth a few months ago. we talked about it. seemed to have had some effect in quiting that activity down but we certainly look at the data and worry about the data and analyze them but we're not seeing a lot. >> is it an acute concern about asset bubbles? >> but not one that we judged and reached proportions in which we need to take that as our main criteria. >> thank you

when it came to the line and this is a $10 billion plus portfolio fund came to the fomc the statement was make sure you have a coin in your pocket. how does the federal reserve restore the credibility it lost. >> i think about this all the time because i'm trying to figure out how the fed can create a monetary policy that is not dependent upon tomorrow's jobs report. it feels to me that the overall direction of a tanker should be determined not by the latest wave coming to the tanker. it should be more at stake here. so what i'm trying to figure out is it a matter of bad luck in that we've had all of these different shocks to the economy that are unexpected and so what the fed finding itself is wound up to do one thing and then you have something like brexit come along. i think we would be sitting here talking about the july hike or the certainty of a september hike if it wasn't for brexit. if that's the case the fed is no dump dumber or smarter than the market is. >> the market has been smarter than the fed has been. that's the issue that we once again find ourselves dealing with. if

that's the message from the minutes from the july fed fomc meeting. let me read from some of the text here. quote, many participants judged that it was appropriate to wait for additional information that would allow them to evaluate the underlying momentum in economic activity and the labor market and whether inflation was continuing to rise gradually to the fed's 2% target as expected but several participants, some participants, rather, concluded that the committee should wait to take another step in increasing rates until the data on economic activity provided a greater level of confidence that economic growth was strong enough to withstand a possible downward shock to demand in the economy. however, some other participants judged it that another, another increase in short-term interest rates was, or would soon be warranted with a couple of them advocating an increase at the july meeting. now, of course, the july jobs report came out after that. it was much stronger than expected. "brexit" is mentioned several times in the minutes as well but that w

you know, why would the fomc copy the homework of kuroda, draghi, who gets to pick and choose? not saying what is good and bad. i'm making generalities. do you think they're going to buy the corporate securities of companies that make cigarettes or fossil fuel or do you think they would be more inclined to renewable energy securities or healthier things and i'm not saying that there's a bad and good there. i'm just saying they should be involved in this selection process. it's really going to be full of issues that really shouldn't be part of the central bank that has 4.5 trillion on the balance sheet and finally it's all about gravity. if you purchase corporate securities you're creating an environment that we're not really standing on solid ground. we're walking on air and that's the problem. why they don't want to normalize. they don't know how much difference in height there is between where the markets are walking now and where they should be walking based on lack of or winding down of policy. mike back to you. >> thank you very much. meantime, mylan will launch a generic

minutes from the last fomc meeting suggest a split view on a rate hike. a quarter point rate hike. global market reaction straight ahead. earning central dow component, walmart expected to report in one hour. we'll tell you what to expect from the retail giant and controversy in rio. two olympic swimmers pulled off their flight home like midnight express. remember on that bus. as investigators look into claims that they were robbed at gunpoint. it's thursday, august 18, 2016 and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ ♪ that's great. good morning everybody and welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick. andrew is reporting live from olympic games. there he is. good morning andrew. we're going to get to andrew in just a minute. >> nice to see you. >> becky, andrew. it's becky. >> it's me, it's me. >> you were gone. >> here. >> let's check the u.s. equity futures at this hour. things are relatively flat. dow futures are down only about 9 points. s&p off less than a point. the nasdaq down by 5. overnight in asia, japan's nikkei fell

it's interesting the way the fed and in particular, you know, the fomc focus in on, okay, forget about. that doesn't matter. it's the jobs report. and if the jobs report was bad, which is was through two different months of the past four, then they'd say, okay, well, it's really the things are going to pick up in the second half, to steph's point, and we don't need to worry about the bad jobs report. in other words, economists are always juggling these things. ben happens to be one of the folks that has to do that on a broad basis for had. sbc. i understand why he's cautious and don't think that anybody -- >> i mean, historic, throwing shade all over the whole global story. >> yeah. >> and -- >> going to have to be cut down, that brexit will have a much bigger impact than people think. >> and when you test among the brexit thing, it hasn't played out yet. it played out for all of like 24 hours. that was it. >> we still have to see how that whole thing shakes out. >> tone. >> not willing to give it a total pass. i think europe is actually slowing and vulnerable. read his note. more worr

if i see by the run up to the fomc meeting data that are kind of consistent with that picture, my positionught to have a serious discussion. >> all right. at least a serious discussion about raising rates at the september meeting if the data keeps coming in. but there's also a meeting in november just before the election. i don't expect any action there. but then there's a meeting after that in december. so they seem to be teeing up a rate increase at some point later -- at some point this year. trish. trish: i'll believe it when i see it, peter. thank you so much. >> okay. trish: by the way, that is quite a backdrop behind peter, everyone. i just want to point out, it actually is real. it may look a little fake, it's just that beautiful out there in jackson hole, wyoming. let's take a look at these markets, we're off you can see almost 100 points there still on the dow. you know, earlier in the session we had been trading higher. but then things started to reverse midday, and it looks like we might end the day lower. it's clear, investors don't really know what to think of janet yellen an

he and stan fisher,s vice chair and the chair, janet yellen are the core members of fomc, the federalpen market econocommit the body that makes decisions on interest rates. the global economy does seem to be, again, the word stall speed. what i mean by that is the economy is still growing just above their potential. the u.s. of course, we see growth in the ones right now. growth potential somewhere in the high ones. if growth is below potential in any nation, typically means slower job growth. in the u.s., we'll see statistics and it's going to be important to the overall outlook. for the fed it's likely to accumulate data before it makes a decision to tilt toward and interest rate hike and markets get the idea it's doing so. >> based on your view of the economy and investor expectations and everything else, do you think they'll be able to hike in 2016? >> it does still semo owe there does seem to be a reasonable chance that the fed raises interest rates this year because the economy through it all, in looking at friday's data and final demand, which is to say to look at all of the ac

ideally, they would like to get to this fomc meeting with 40% probability.aybe they are hoping for 150, 180, a number like that. probabilities would go up further. alix: we have seen that reflected in dollar having yen probability. the fed meeting, jobs friday over the last month. you are looking at dollar having yen in 1995. what kind of disappointment will we have to get us there? a percentage is that they are running out of bombs to buy, that the negative rates -- that they are running .ut of bonds to buy now you're launching into a market that is thinking i do not think dollar-yen necessarily will go higher. they are running out of options. unless he can come up with some shock and awe tackett, i do not's -- some shock and awe tactic, i do not see him doing that. alix: if you are going to bet on a stronger jobs number, you will bet on a rate hike over the next two week spirit what happens if there is that disappointment as well? the ramifications for the emerging markets as well, coming up on "go," we will talk about the brazilian real. it is on its long

this just about 31 minutes after the fomc minutes were released. across the board, biggest moves within the equity markets are seen in the utilities if you pull that up on intraday basis utilities up by more than 1%. taking a check on oil, hanging around break even after up and down session. michelle. >>> jc penney ceo marvin ellison took over the company more than a year ago. since then the stock is up 20%. today ellison is meeting with analysts and also courtney reagan who's live from irving, texas. courtney. >> reporter: thank you very much, michelle. of course i can't come all the way down here for jc penney analyst day and not sit down with ceo marvin ellison. he took over just about a year ago. and so now he's here answering some of our questions. congratulations on the quarter you all posted on friday. here you laid out your three-year plan. i will tell you your stock is down about 3.6%. you're looking at comp sales to grow 3% to 4% by the year 2019. i'm not sure the market believes that, especially with mall traffic declining mid single dig

is the fed to academic, has this become something like a university at the fomc?d an economics phd to understand where these guys are coming from? must admit, my dream job after i got my phd was to be on the board staff and working on the model. for somebody with a phd, the fed is the holy grail. question, should chair yellen and the upper management of the fomc still be so focused on such academic topics? the answer is yes because they need the radical grounding for what they do, but they also need practical application of what the markets are looking for and give them what they need, which is certainty. theirif they are lowering growth forecast, that would be pretty clear to the markets and what isn't that the markets don't understand? every meeting is supposed to be live, the mythology that the fed insists on perpetuating is something they have to give up. we will move when the following conditions are there, whether it star, inflation indisposition, give us exactly what the playbook is. if you don't know, say you do not know. if they say that, that is where cr

we're going to be scrutinizing the fomc minutes tomorrow, but remember the u.s.lar index has not moved in a year. it's been tethered in 95. that brings a big smile to janet yellen, allowing all these other central bankers throwing a lot of easing on the fire. there's 260 billion monthly of qe-across the seas between bank of japan, ecb, that's just a wonderful thing for janet yellen to sit still and do nothing because her track record she's done nothing but be dovish. >> meantime seems like fed's lockhart is not the only one who is bullish on the economy. joining us on the show today on futures now we've got jim paulspau paulsen, he's bullish on global growth. and michael cohen will talk to us about what all this dollar weakness means for oil in particular going forward. join us. it's going to be a little bit after the hour, guys, because i'm wearing two hats today. we're talking about two types of commodities, not just oil and metals, but health care. more on that coming up on "power lunch." back to you. >> all right. bert bertha, thanks so much. up next, final t

the fomc is going to continue to be data dependent. they'll look at the data come in.hink september is certainly on the table. i don't think it's the most likely time to see interest rates rise. but i would be surprised if they don't increase rates by about a quarter of a point before the end of the year. >> all right. allen krueger from princeton, thanks for joining us and your insights. ashley, back to you. ashley: as always, thank you, peter barn. what an amazing background. it doesn't look real. whatever anyway, peter, thank you. so what do our traders think on the it floor about all of this and janet yellen's comments and how about the rig count, by the way, did not rise for the first time in nine weeks and what does that mean for oil? let's get right to the floor show, we've got traders at the new york stock exchange, the cme group, and imax. didn't increase the number of rigs pumping out oil but where does oil go from here do you think? >> well, last week we were talking about crude oil being at a top level. starting to come off. and it did. it came off several

fomc minutes will give further clues as to whether the central bank really is data dependent. ♪ manusgone 6:48 in london. 1:49 a.m. in new york. the weekend never ends until you are waking up on monday morning. stocks up 0.8%. a business flash. first-half profit more than doubled as a higher gold price boosted revenue and a lower rand -- and a weekend rand lowered costs. japanese tv maker sharp have continued to climb in tokyo after foxconn completed the purchase in the state of the company. the deal was completed in april but was delayed by chinese antitrust proceedings. --lionaire ones and you and and billionaire has received approval from shareholders to buy out his property units for $4.4 billion. it clears the way for hong kong's biggest ever privatization deal. they will move to mainland china where companies are high -- are fetching higher valuations. manus: the german supermarket chain aldi has always reveled in austerity. but, that hasn't stopped a widening scandal about the extravagant spending. the ongoing feud between the secretive family behind the budget brand has upende

my sense of the fomc and monetary policy, they are a bit like me and diets.n put it off until tomorrow you will. it really does not take much to persuade them to wait a little bit. the payroll numbers were strong. the u.s. economy is generating 1.7% employment growth on an annual basis in an economy where they are growing at 1% barely. we are going to go and use up spare labor but at the same time, year-over-year productivity is -0.4%, last quarter. to type going to need monetary policy at some point but they will always have a belief that it is better to be too late than too early and there is nothing screaming at them in the moment that says anything different. expect they will sound like someone who says they should get on with it in a hurry. indeed.: very much up next a rally emerges. stocks in emerging markets extend a one-year high as oil stages a comeback. caroline: a beautiful berlin sun is shining and the dax is up 0.2%. we have hit a level we have not seen this year. it's the first time that the dax index has turned positive for 2016. we're above wa

something along the lines of the fomc. you will be announcing its committee members -- india will be announcing its committee members. contribution that the governor has made in the past year, he went against bank bad loans. he is going to clean up the bank balance sheet problem, large part of it has been achieved. last point, yes, there have been -- he has been outspoken on areas on monetary policymaking. his policy has come under criticism for being way too hawkish. interest rates when they came down, many people argued they should've come down much earlier. establishmentling felt that he was often overstepping his mandate. you.: harsha, thank a very full take on the outgoing governor. executive it is a in mumbai, harsha subramaniam. breaking news, the second-largest reinsurer at 974 million. this is near double the estimate of oranges 79.1 million. 2016, they are saying they still see their target. 2.3 billion is achievable. this is their restructuring of their prime insurance business in -- in germany. net restructurin

fomc is coming out wednesday, and u.k.trickle out to get a full effect of how it will be affected by the economy. jon:

minutes from the latest fomc meeting suggests a split view on a rate hike. to a strategist next. plus we'll check in again with andrew in rio. >>> the olympic games may be taking place here in the olympic park. but i went out to go on a food marathon and i went for gold. when we come back, i'll show you a bit of my food race here on "squawk box." boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go! the market's hot! sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade amazing sleep stays with you all day and all night. sleep number beds with sleepiq technology give you the knowledge to adjust for the best sleep ever. the time is now for the biggest sale of the year, where all beds are on sale! save 50% on the labor day limited edition bed. know better sleep. only at a sleep number store. >>> you can't come to rio without going to a traditional ria. they're going a limit