i know why it is appropriate that clearly from the fomc members with potential trade? that people want to with those economic projection? payment we made one decision at this meeting to ramp up by 25 basis points. the projections are just individual projections compiled and you were mentioning the meeting as being close but i think with any forecast that will change over time depending outlook so that is all i can for now these are the best forecasts we could make and if the economy is stronger or weaker than it could be less gradual or gradua gradual. >> mr. chairman, just to follow up on that written question on trade what would have to happen in policy with retaliation from countries around the world for the outlook? and then you mentioned productivity and with policy changes? >> portrayed what i mentioned is the fomc participants reported concerns which were relatively new about future trade action and we see that as a risk to the outlook in what people are talking about would be more widespread retaliation interaction back and forth kind of thing. but in terms of

vonnie: we are now less than four hours away from the fomc rate decision.cks are fluctuating between small gains and losses. policymakers are expected to raise rates by 1/4 a percentage powell'schairman jay first meeting. here with what to watch is joe higgins, manager of the tiaa bond fund. what will you particularly be looking for out of today's news conference? guest: of course we will to see how the dot plots change. we think it is going to be four in 2018. the markets have that price dan about 45%, which is fairly high, so it is certainly likely. if they don't go with four, if they stay with three this year, we would expect the total number of dots to increase for 2019 and 2020. we are about at seven now. in our view it is going to go to nine, which is really where it should be relative to the strength of the economy and whatnot. shery: you can find the bloomberg function on the terminal and see those dots. you believe there will be a fourth. added to that. that.ourth dot added to when we had the testimony of mr. -- wouldn't that add to a more dovish t

the voting members of the fomc that this side that -- decide that. i am always loath to support interest because it opens up the the voting members of the fomc that this sideact. this is not a problem we need to solve because there is no difference between the two things. you be supportive or not supportive of legislation that would allow the district president to weigh in on a decision as well? if not, why not? >> i don't think we're looking legislation. >> in this case, we are looking for more stakeholders to be a part of the decision process. >> think the real decision that is made is the one that bank residents do take part in. they make that decision with us under the law. if i thought it was really unfair or a problem, i would support a change. i don't really think it is a problem. it is less so than it would appear. >> has been expressed from them that they would like interest on the. -- that. let me go to the federal open market blackout. -- period. that? you feel about just so we know and have an ability to find out what is ofng on during th

as you look around the table at the fomc there is wide-ranging views on timing of those. think we all hope they would be large. >> michael. >> mike from "dow jones newswires." i have a question about the futures of the mechanics of monetary policy want to know whether you favor sticking with the system you have now keeping interest on excess reserves, reverse repo rate to control interest rates or do you want to shift back to the old way of doing things at some point of targeting the fed funds market? and do you have any concern if you do stick with the current system, that is as rates rise you might see issues where the fed is being criticized for paying out ever larger shares of money to banks, to control interest rates, that some might perceive as a subsidy to the banks getting this money? >> sure. our current framework for implementing monetary policy is working very well. we have excellent control over rates and, it's working and it's, you described it accurately. we haven't made a decision to keep that as our longer-run framework. we haven't really addressed that qu

but when the unemployment rate was falling to strack one -- to strike everyone on the fomc. but i fell into the same category i also thought it was a mistake but this was 1996. i went to greenspan and said i will support you but i doubt that i can support this very much longer. i think the case, again, i turned out to be wrong but perhaps one could increase until late into the '90s and then inflation is very low focusing on productivity because of that technological change these are the ideas i was pretty sympathetic to and i wrote some things on that topic with those theoretical models he wasn't that familiar with. >> so math to academia and the governor and cia that was a great job. so what about your experience with the cea? >> you are involved with every aspect of economic policy with respect to the performance of the macro economy. and into the final month of 1989 the unemployment rate would have fallen 4% and inflation is running around 2%. >> it was terrific and certainly celebrating in the white house. and i participated in the event that the budget was balanced to r

how did you think about working with up to 19 people around the fomc table? janet: my style i think was very similar to yours, which i would describe as collegial rather than dictatorial. i wanted, especially for policies like running down our balance sheet, that something that would take place over many years with changing representation, voting on the committee, i thought it is important to have a program that is understood by the public, that will be -- get broad-based support when the voting members of the committee change, there should not be a change in this aspect of policy. there were other things we did as well. operational decisions about how to manage interest rates. the general notion that raising rates to a normal level, the new normal, lower than in the past, but we should do that gradually. i wanted broad-based committee agreement. to try to generate that, i let a lot of time for committee discussion. many meetings we would try to develop how we would run down our balance sheet. initially at meetings, we would have a lot of options on the table

a deviation or change to that expectation, something unexpected from the commentary today from the fomcnd jay powell, we could see a change with more tumult in the market. we have financial conditions in white. the two-year yield in yellow and the fed funds target rate, the two-year yield most closely tied to what the fed does as bp -- see the financial conditions have tightened considerably. widening a little bit in march from their lives. things to watch in the wake of the decision this afternoon. mark: yes. deutsche bank shares down substantially, the european bank in the news, warning of revenue headwinds from currencies and high funding cost. joined by our finance and investing managing editor. what happened in the last week? last week and things were looking a bit better but what happened in one week? >> the news today is not all that surprising in terms of the actual facts. talking about headwinds from fx which we can see but looking at a currency graph. surprising to investors was the different tone. report, a, the annual very optimistic outlook or trading business in 2018. well

coming up, more on the fed chairman jay powell fomc debuted. features flat. dollar a little softer into the meeting. we'll discuss the markets we will be watching with michelle meyer's. before we get to break, headlines and the bloomberg european capital markets for. barclays ceo jeff bailey being interviewed and deutsche bank the deputy ceo is also there. making some headline saying we are making progress in the investment banking and it is focusing on returning capital to shareholders and not taking longer than they thought for the banks revamp. they are considering buybacks as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ caitlin: bayer has cleared a big hurdle for $66 billion takeover of monsanto. the european union has given its ok for the deal. one condition, bayer have to sell its seed, pesticide and agriculture to dss. annualas increased its profit forecast for the second year in a row --second quarter in a row. fedex and its rival ups are cashing in on higher demand caused by rising online buying but there challenges that deliveries to holmes are less profitable -- h

multiple tightenings by the dovish core of the fomc, setting the tone for the fomc leadership going forwarde gradualism. i think this employment report is up their alley. inflation is building, but slowly, average hourly earnings of 2.6%, still ahead of the inflation rate, and gradual monetary policy normalization. they can stick to that script. jonathan: and momentum in the economy is picking up as well. [speaking simultaneously] jonathan: you just want to -- what do you think the fed will deliver versus what is priced in to the front-end of the moment? >> that is a fascinating question. the euro-dollar markets are basically pricing in two and a half to three rate hikes for the year. i am willing to bet that we move to the markets pricing for rate hikes. i doubt we actually get there. and what it comes down is the random nature of inflation prints in the short-term. we are calling january basically three things caused inflation to exceed our forecast, core inflation. one was a change in methodology in used car pricing. right? so i don't -- it doesn't get much more random than that. i am wi

aoking ahead to the fomc, loss for investors to contend with.ney. i am paul allen with the first word headlines. g20 ministers they'll to block trump's protectionist plans that threaten to undermine the global economy. they had little to show with discussions -- from discussions with steve mnuchin. the closing statement removed previous hedges to fight protectionism. tensions set to rise between washington and beijing as president trump forges ahead with global tariffs on chinese products. measures worth $60 billion could be imposed as early as friday for punishment over what the ministration perceives as intellectual property theft. forced to hand over tech know-how as a price of doing business in china. are investigating an explosion in a fedex facility in texas. it is linked to bombs that killed two people and often earlier this month. when employee was injured. police are now investigating another issue in -- another blast in austin at a goodwill store. a shooting in maryland left two students injured and another debt. and itge boy shot a gi

i mean, estimates of the economy's long-run growth potential, the fomc last, the median was 1.8%. that assumed a pickup in productivity above the abysmal levels achieved previously. so i can't say i'm really impressed with the pickup in productivity. it's being something that would boost it. but, you know, we do have things like fiscal policy, relevant to it. you know, when we're expansionary, physical policy fits long-lasting, has potential of boosting our star somewhat. there were always questions about, and initially i'd say my own thinking was that's reason our star seemed to be so very low was partly because of head winds from the financial crisis that i thought would dispate over time. i changed my view on that and became more convinced that it was productivity, demographic and other things more secular and longer lasting than we're driving it. but it is conceivable that there could be some pickup and there was something to that earlier explanation. but i don't really have a strong view on this. i think this this is a matter about which there is -- there is uncertainly and w

they are bracing for the first fomc meeting.is kristina hooper and she is global market strategist at invesco. is the facebook. something you are keeping an eye on, or watching from the point of view of social activity? kristina: this is an isolated incident. i was surprised that it was a catalog -- catalyst for yesterday's selloff. the bigger story was the you will been -- european tariffs for a bunch of tech companies. that is something far more important and because tariffs could be a headwind to economic growth. anotherwe are getting $60 billion and more coming for china this week as far as we understand from the administration. what impact do you imagine tariffs broadly as the chips fall will have on global trade and gdp? aistina: it is going to be problem. during the great depression, by the end of the 1930's, we had 20,000 tariffs on different goods. what it seems to be the beginnings of here, is something of force. we have only heard threats so far but only a few actual tariffs. that has multiplied over time, and we have

full force at the fomc. a great bloomberg story that is running around.velopment in-house on their screen technology. that's taking the edge off some of the technology players. around .5%. another factor is the political drama in japan. seems to be sticking to the japanese cabinet. bit more yenle strength coming through. once again, this is because of that japanese political story. we see the polls over the weekend suggesting prime minister's abe -- prime minister abe's cabinet is less nationalist than it was. the dollar spot a fraction of a percent as we head towards jerome powell's first real press event around the fomc. increasing interest rates could be the easy decision for the fomc this week. what kind of guidance and medium productions what we -- median projections will we get for 2018, matt? matt: girls are also seeing more headlines that i will bring to you right now. st inis planning to li london. this is a transition maker famous for its truck transitions, legendary muscle car transmissions from the glory days of the most they can camaro . a lo

we will be watching those tech shares, but more important we will be watching the fomc meeting and itsecision with powell of the head of the fed. haidi: we have futures pricing in. their chances are well over 90%. we are watching for the press conference, the town, any sense of extra hawkishness will be taken to mean a change in the dot plot, but looking at how we are setting up in asia, we have the fomc event clearly fun and -- front and center. the bank of it asia, new zealand central bank, the philippines, indonesia setting policy this week, largely expected to stay unchanged. new zealand has been trading to the upside. we have the u.s. dollar gaining alongside u.s. stocks for the first time. over theme optimism reckitt -- recent economic numbers. sydney futures look good going into the open. the aussie dollar trading 77.15. there is weakness with iron ore trading, so looking up for the likes of the hp and fortescue into that open. gold futures up a little bit and new york crude as well. trading at $62 a barrel. we see some sustained weakness across the industrial commodities space

. >>> of course, tomorrow it's all about the fomc decision and the maiden question-and-answer sessionerome powell. street looking for 25-basis-point now and two more this year. i think it can handle four, of course, if the data is right, but more importantly if the fed is careful not to admit they're going to do four before signs of evidence of inflation. let's talk about the fed and the market with jeffrey cleveland, a chief economist. >> hi, charles. >> how you doing? >> doing well. charles: what i found fascinating is jerome powell around for a long time, with the federal reserve for a long time. before that with the carlyle group, now he's a mystery, a question mark. all of a sudden the guy known as a dove, people think he has the talents and he's the ultimate hawk. >> i don't think he's a haushgs but he has struck a different tone than we saw with yellen and it's a welcome tone. instead of talking about headwinds that the u.s. economy faced, he's recognizing they shifted to tailwinds. a fiscal policy boost. we've got the global economy firing on virtually all cylinders, we think

were the effects of an actual trade war discussed at the fomc meeting this week?hairman powell talked about this at the press conference in the context of -- we are always looking at one of the upside scenarios and downside scenarios that could surprise us. six months ago we were not talking about trade as a downside risk to the u.s. economy. now it is a downside risk. i don't think we have a good sense of putting probability on it, but it is something we have to pay attention to. kathleen: is the biggest risk, oh, inflation? is the biggest risk financial instability? -- the chinese stock market selloff a lot of volatility in the u.s. around the world. not anything like that now, but it seems to me that this is something that could impinge on the path, but in terms of are you looking for something to change the path, what is it? neel: all the things you set are reasonable cases and we would have to look at it. my guess is it would be a shock to confidence. confidence is enormously important to the u.s. economy. if there was a trade war and a major shock to global

all eyes are on jay powell as he makes his fomc debut.r to 2018.ate hikes in vincent, great to have you with us. talk about what you expect from jay powell. ratehe indicate that four hikes are possible in 2018? and how does he do it? >> i think you will be positive. there has been more fiscal stimulus, the global economy seems to be in a synchronous expansion. he does not have to point to a 4th rate hike. ify will lean toward it but the data comes out like you would expect for the course of the year, markets will price it in. for now, get what you have to do over today. ay a coupleyou will p more times and everything is conditional. julia: he seemed quite optimistic when he testified in front of congress and then he had to rein it in at first the comedy has been concerned. --as far as the economy has been concerned. three or fed tightens four times, right now that is a theory. the theory that the unemployment rate starts with a 3, that cost pressures will emerge and inflation will pick up. there's been a modest uptick in inflation and cos

sophie: the first meeting as fomc chair, we have stocks under pressure in asia, in japan.of 1%. not only do we have the fed, we have the g20 meeting in argentina where tensions will be front and center. clinching a record fourth term as xi jinping voted unanimously for a second five-year term. abe might be looking at that enviously, given this landfill scandal. polls showing that public support is looking grim. tara aso will be facing the da for most of the day. exports rising a touch stronger than expected last month. still moderating from the double-digit growth we saw in january. exports to china did fall 10% but did rise to the u.s. and the eu. data from australia, we will be getting jobs data, home prices for february later in the week. before that, we have the aussie sticking below 78 u.s. cents, already under pressure. iron ore has followed to a three-month low. the aussie could get another knock. ahead of that meeting, let's check in on the risk radar, keeping an eye of the dollar which is keeping steady, after capping a three-week advance. treasury yields are pick

reporter: investors bracing for the fomc direction. higher by resource players. morgan stanley forecasted an increase in coal prices through 2019. i'll extending the climb on a three-week high at opec, rejigging expectations for rebalancing the market. rising for a kospi second day. when you took best take a look at the leaders in index points, lg gaining ground and reports that a 13 trillion won electric car battery order with volkswagen, yet to sign a contract. they are at the top of the leaderboard in terms of points. we have other algae related stocks also gaining ground. motors, up 7/10 of 1%. let's switch it out to check in on laggards in korea so far today. sharesighlight samsung that have been fluctuating down 2/10 of 1%. this morning, we did get the latest health check on korean trade. the first 20 days of the month saw exports rise 9.3%, picking up on the reading in february. checking in on the korean won, 1071 a dollar handle. our colleague mark cranfield could start -- won to enjoy a peace dividend as leaders in japan and k

participants in this fomc did bring up the issue of tariffs.e what came out of that, it was first that ,here is no thought, i think that changes in trade policy should have any affect on the current outlook. david: doesn't affect the current outlook. at the same time, the white house making some announcements. you are seeing the dollar weakened against the yen, so the market seem to be disagreeing with the chairman. constance: i think the markets and the chairman have different objectives. the objective of the fed is to look long-term and not in the business of speculating. when it is a want us, they are not in the business of saying anything unless there is a significant impact. whereas the market is very much in the business about what if, let's think four steps ahead, what will this do down the road? the fed is very much on a trend the path. and if we have a situation where tariffs occur and cause an inflation spike, for example, that is something that that will look through as temporary, just like a temporary oil spike. alix: but if you hav

is there a problem, or can the rest of the fomc state their views? or did powell win the masses? since ben bernanke took over, it has been about trying to create consensus well at the same time everyone having slightly different views. jerome powell didn't really talk about that. his communications policy seemed to extend what ben bernanke and janet yellen did during their tenure. mark: kevin, just coming back to tuesday, from what you have heard, how did the white house take the fed chairman's first testimony to congress? they liked it. i was speaking with a source before coming on, who noted that this pick, buy yes, he doesn't have the traditional background that other folks and other fed chairs have had, for the large part he has been a consistent successor to the fed chair yellen. with the exception, has mike mckee noted, regarding inserting his own personal thoughts on the economy. , but onumpian, and away the flipside of that i think he has been greeted warmly by republicans in all factions of the party, including the more conservative faction of the tea party, which to som

i don't think the new chair or the new fomc wants to signal they're depart frg this path one important point for your viewers to understand. the federal reserve bank presidents outvote the governors at this meeting. you have a new chairman. the new york fed has a constant vote then the other four voters are from rotating through the 11 banks. it's the federal reserve banks that control the vote here however, jay powell has extraordinarily good relationship with all the bankers. having assumed that reasonability in the board before he became chair of being the liason with the federal reserve banks. i don't think they're going to part from the path from a management standpoint, why would you? it would be an odd way to start off on that foot taz new chair. so i don't see anything new and exciting happening what i'm watching for is a con fir mag of what i believe, which is jay powell feels much more comfortable in front of a camera, in front of the press, than his predecessors. now because they weren't brillia brilliant, but because they had a different set of personalities. he's very comf

yesterday with the dow up triple digits as investors await a rate hike from jerome powell's first fomcng. for more, let's bring in david zerv zervos, barry banister barry, i'll kick it off with you. what was behind yesterday's selloff and what changed today >> a lot of yesterday started with facebook which has been a market darling with the faang trade for years but part of it is trepidation regarding the fed's upcoming meeting and what will powell do in terms of signaling for rate hikes as well as being more hawk iish. >> was yesterday's a pull back of the reflection of the markets digesting four hikes this year versus three >> i think any time we get close to jerome powell speaking or an event with this new fed the market gets self-reflective and a little worried about what this new fed is, it's a learning experience this is the first kind of -- first meeting but we had the first speech back in february and that really set a tone with the market that was pretty negative i mean, he came out very optimistic and that might sound good but optimism from a fed chair usually means more rate

we are looking at the fed and what you heard from the fomc, and of course looking at mark carney andful lot going on but the big story in washington was the snow. all towns shut down yesterday, except for the fed. -- the

yell and we actually got some insight into that in january, when the transcripts from the 2012 fomc meetings were released. and what it showed was janet yellen being very, verypp tive of qe3 while jerome powell was much more concerned about the bloating of the fed's balanceheet a really reluctantly agreed to embark on qe3. what we see is very significant differences already, and marke didn't necessarily expect that. that's why i think it's no surprise that we saw all this volatility this month just as the baton was being passed from janet yellen to jerome powell. >> when you used the word rlier, the normalization of monetary policy, i take that as code or economist-speak for rising interest rates as the economy regains its footing and its health. but that doesn't mean that you can't continu to make money in stocks, does it? >> no, absolutely not. and in fact let me qualify by saying, normalization in this case isn't just about rate hikes. >> right. >> it's about taking down t balance sheet. and that actually was the great experiment we've been in for past decade. but having said all that, wh

multiple tightening's by the dovish core of the fomc, setting the tone for the leadership going forwardwhich will be gradualism. i think this employment report is up their alley. inflation is building, but slowly, average hourly earnings of 2.6%, still ahead of the inflation rate, and gradual monetary policy normalization. they can stick to that script. jonathan: and the momentum in the economy is picking up as well. r.j.: in the short term. jonathan: what do you think the fed will deliver versus what is priced in to the front-end of the moment? guy: the euro-dollar markets are basically pricing in two and a half to three rate hikes for the year. i am willing to bet we move to the markets pricing for rate hikes. i doubt we actually get there. what it comes down is the random nature of inflation prints three in the short term. three things cause inflation to exceed our forecast, core inflation. one was a change in methodology in used car pricing. right? it doesn't get much more random than that. i am willing to bet that on the flipside, we get some data over the course of the next six mo

where there is so much data, information overload, but the key thing missing, how will the fed and fomcmation? julia: what is the biggest mistake jay powell could make here? whether it is the revisions to the outlook -- what is the big risk for the fed? bill: the big risk is that he says something that the markets will suddenly say, my god, he is more of a hawk than i thought he was. that would be disastrous. he almost stepped into that during his first testimony with the house. he kind of hinted, i am much more confident about the recovery, and he had to walk that back the next time. if you were to repeat that mistake again, people would say, he really is much more hawkish than we thought, and that would be disastrous. julia: always great to chat to you. bill lee, thank you so much for that. you can join us for fed chairman powell's first-ever rate decision and news conference. we will be speaking with former fed officials, and jeffrey rosenberg of blackrock. that begins at 1:00 p.m. eastern, with scarlet and joe. joe: can't wait. scarlet: we have some breaking news now. amazon has app

with the associated press you talked about projections based on the outlook of the members of the fomccan you tell us anything about the staff forecast and how that was impacted by the -- we had a $1.5 trillion tax cut, $300 billion in increased government spending the staff forecasts you are working with, are those reflected -- how were they impacted by that and how did it impact the discussions >> we look at the staff forecasts and the board forecasts and, by the way, there are 12 excellent reserve bank staffs who have their own views and do their own work. we look at those as informing the decisions of the policy-makers. it is really the policy-makers' views that we talk about in the sep. we don't talk about the staff forecast it's a particular thing done under particular rules and circumstances. really, it's the policy makers that then take it as input and create their forecasts which drive policy >> no impact though? [ inaudible that's a major increase in government stimulus. it had to have had an impact on the discussions, i would think. >> well, you're right. fiscal stimulus is

each member of the fomc will be writing down new monetary policy as we go into the march meeting threeeeks from today. inpowell was fairly strong saying the economy will expand at a faster the pace, which wil drive up inflation. he made no promises about rates. the implication was the fed could easily change its forecast at the march meeting. down more will -- dow powell'spoints after testimony in front of congress. >>-he was quite careful in his remarks. in terms of being hawkish, the bond market had a point early on upbeate painted an picture of the economy. there is no doubt he is rethinking the policy path, thr ee or four. the european union published a draft legal text that will form the basis of the brexit treaty. theresa may pushed back on that: eu proposal. no u.k. prime minister could ever agree to it. v one of the things underpinning everything in a forward-looking sort of way is the desirability for a transition period, and the necessity of it. what was said today puts doubt on the agreement. pushback not only from theresa may, but her supporters, the dup, the northern irela

. >> all eyes are on the new fed chair as jay powell makes his fomc debut.central bank open the door for rate hikes in 2018? >> eight point mood and the fed gets more hawkish. the real story is the dot plot, they are just one. move away from four rate hikes in this year, and 2019, the median moves up to 2.9%. 2020, two more. today's decision to raise the federal funds rate is another step in the process of gradually scaling back monetary policy accommodation as the economic expansion continues. this gradual process has been underway for more than two years. it has served and should continue to serve the economy well. >> we should not make the mistake in saying this is a much more hawkish fed. this is the fed that is acknowledging the improvement in the economy and thereby signaling a slightly faster pace of hiking is warranted. it is not a change of temperament, just a change of acknowledgment of underlying economic conditions. ♪ >> facebook ceo mark zuckerberg breaking his silence over the cambridge analytica scandal. promising to audit the data. as well as

what will the fomc be looking for as they meet?a has been mediocre and of course, you have the trade concerns, too. kathleen: it is not just jay powell. it is the federal open market committee. i want to start with what they are looking at. let's look at the case for four hikes. wages are starting to rise. were people saying inflation is going to hit 2% this year. it is want to get there by the middle of the year. maybe that encourages the fed. the hawks are saying we cannot let the economy overheat. we can push the economy into recession on this speed up argument. this is more leverage and all kinds of bubbles. keep a consensus at three hikes like you had in december. inflation still below target. as you mentioned, yvonne, tariffs, trade uncertainties. when theying the time white house is trying to speed up the economy, if the fed is hiking rates faster, maybe it looks like they are trying to slow the economy down. that would not be good. what if the fed raises its march?us to four in maybe trade has made more of a problem. that c

ben: there is an alignment in terms of political economy on the fomc. the show me inflation does who are seeing some inflation and our allotting with the we are behind the curve hawks. that will set of three or four hikes this year and it will take a big shock to throw them off of that. julia: we like some optimism in the morning. mandel, vince cignarella, great to have both of you with us. coming up, the silence that speaks volumes. the lack of public comments by deutsche bank on john cryan's future. you can turn on the radio and listen to our colleagues tom keene and jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz joins them at 10:00. beomberg surveillance can heard across the united states on sirius xm radio. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ kailey: this is bloomberg daybreak. up in the next hour, jim farley, ford president of global markets, live, new york auto show. and now to your bloomberg business flash. facebook has unveiled new tools to make it easier for users to see and access the data it holds on them. social networks as it has redesigned the setti

last night,the fomc it was not a surprise when it comes to the fed hike.the one thing that stood out was the 2020 projections. %, to be exact. that is well above the long-term projections they had for 2.8% or 2.9%. i think that is less likely. they do break through percent, will be very temporary in nature. that is why em remains insular. it is not about the absolute level of the yield. could be aressures concern. 3% is less an issue for us than em. rishaad: andre de silva, thank you. china mobile set to report earnings later. what investors should be looking out for. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ this is bloomberg markets asia, i am haidi lun in sydney. rishaad: in hong kong, i am rishaad salamat. china out with earnings, the company set to take a 4 billion dollar hit for selling supplies below cost last year. our guest is with me now. what are analysts expecting? what are the key points they need to touch upon? >> other than billions of losses , earnings will be good. the earnings probably will be tripling for the year, mostly because of high oil prices. natura

how might that influence the fomc? let's ask head of middle east research.i was just saying, we are expecting a rate hike next week. the question is, is it a hawkish rate hike or does it end up being a classic dovish hike? >> that is what we will watch to see in the minutes. forouse, we are expecting rate hikes. the market on the whole is looking for three. three point two is effectively what is priced in. if we get indications fed is for rate hikes, you will see it reflected in the value of the dollar. the chances are there will be a more of a bounce in the events that we see the markets realigning. powell's is jerome first proper fed chair meeting and will come with a conference. given that the last time he spoke in public, he did not some might your traditional central banker. to impact nextng week and what are investors going to watch out for when it comes to language from powell? >> the habit of the market is looking at specific wording. the fed is very much aware of this. i would be surprised if we see a massive departure from the way the fed has commu

the last cpi data before the march fomc was more of the same. >> i think people get worked up about inflationecause of the numbers and i would take this as a bit of a relief. i don't think it contradicts the inflation a generally trending higher but after a shocking number in month ago, this one feels more normal. a number we like? is it enough of a boost to inflation? should we be wary of this given that we will get a lot of fiscal stimulus? >> i think we are on track for an acceleration. if we continue to see the types of numbers we have seen in recent months, we will see an acceleration of inflation over time. sheri: so investors should rest at ease for now? the announcements from the fed should be coming as scheduled? >> we will see a move in march in march and the big question investors will look at is where the dots are for 2018 and the fed was saying three hikes. my guess is they -- the dots will still communicate three dots for 2018. people will eventually get for but that transition from the fed will probably come later. sheri: we also have retail sales numbers tomorrow. is a raving

and one of the most dovish members of the fomc speaks out.kashkari tells bloomberg wanted the rate increase this week. andks have swung lower higher, and right now they are on the downswing. taylor: recovering from our whiplash, it is really incredible. an hour ago, the dow was off as much as 6/10 of 1%, now up about 6/10 of 1% as we got a need

almost priced in now it's five rate hikes would be a big deal back-to-back rate hikes, back-to-back fomculd be a huge deal all allen. thank you very much for joining us this morning. >>> only a minute or two left. a few things to watch today. the february jobs report, that's at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. don't miss steve liesman's interview with chicago fed president charles evans, minutes after the jobs number is released at 11:00 a.m., catch our interview with u.s. treasury secretary steve mnuchin, critical to watch in light of the carve-outs we're seeing with the tariffs. futures we expect to open higher 52 points for the dow. the s&p is up about 5 points the nasdaq up 18 week to date, about 2% of gains for the nasdaq less than that for the dow and s&p. the third positive week out of four for those indices ten-year treasury note for you, close to 2.9 again 2.88% the yield on the ten-year. of course the dollar this morning is slightly higher because of the move against the yen and the bank of japan as opposed to something more broad. >>> i'm moving to closing bell on monday. i want to say

how does this cpi report this morning play into the views of the key members of the fomc?ps them on track for at least three moves this year. it could add pressure for a fourth, even though we saw stable numbers, we are seeing a slow build in inflation. over the last three months, we are expanding out more than a 3% rate inflation rising, so we are starting to see it builds. it isn't out of control and no reason to panic, but there is reason to believe that they will reach the 2% target by the end of the year. >> china's latest data goes somewhat against the narrative that the country is shifting away from old industrial drivers towards a consumption-led economy. put that in perspective for us, especially in light of a looming trade war, between the u.s. and china. guest: we are seeing surprisingly strong numbers out of china this morning. industrial outs, define expectations to accelerate in the first couple of months of the year. beneath the surface though, we see some signs of weakness in domestic demand. in particular, we saw land sales crumbling. of course, if domesti

coincide with a fractional change in core pci inflation, still the biggest question into powell's first fomc gathering remains unanned. investors don't have a bull's-eye. they suggest 3 rate hikes and 6ing is 4 suggest 4. -- so where to we go? conclusion in my mine that market is confused. but, you know sell-off not too much of a big deal. sheriff is in town, he has to get his posse together on getting on same page. i like powell did not take the boat obet on the tariffs, how wl wall street react tomorrow. bringing in our panel david nelson. and john and greg mcbride. john, maybe a grade for john powell's first time at bat? and what do you think? >> i am taking the easy way out, and say he got a pass as opposed to a fail, the market took what he said in stride. there were no major flubs, when janet yellen had her conference she kind of messed up by giving more detail than she intended on how much the fed intended to go. i think sh he did all right, wel see. most important thing we got out of this meet is that fed is looking at a more aggressive pooghpath of interest rate incrs it will take t

. >> each member of the fomc will be writing down new monetary policy as we go into the march meeting three weeks from today. >> powell was fairly strong in saying he thinks the economy will expand at a faster pace, and that will drive up inflation. he made no promises about rates. but just the implication was the fed could easily change its forecast at the march meeting. >> the dow down more than 200 points after powell's testimony in front of congress. >> i think he was very careful in his remarks. in terms of him being more hawkish, the bond market had a point early on when they sold off as he painted an upbeat picture of the economy. he did say the economies headwinds are training in detail wins. there is no doubt he is reassessing, rethinking the policy path, three or four. >> the pound dropping after the european union published date draft legal text that will form the basis for the brexit divorce treaty. theresa may pushed back on that eu proposal. p.m. may: no u.k. prime minister could ever agree to it. >> one of the things that is ort of underpinning everything in a forward-l

march 21st is when this first fomc meeting and conference, you know the very important document thatells about projections on fed funds. lauren: at that meeting the fed with expected to raise interest rates will have to see how many more times in 2018. train to president trump reportedly said to meet with them steel and aluminum executives today. we'll see if that meeting actually takes place. sources said the president could announce tariffs on imports from china which has been blamed for funding the global market with cheap steel. lauren: meanwhile a top adviser to president trump stepping down. big news yesterday from the white house syndicate that part of the story from blake burman. >> the white house knows they just have different communication direct their. hope this announcing she will be resided within the coming week a part of the president's campaign from day one thing in a statement help is outstanding and is done great work for the last three years. she's a smart and thoughtful as they come from a truly great person. i will miss having a by my side when she approached me

speaking of the tax bill, fed chair jay powell yesterday during his news conference said that the fomc during their meetings this week talked about trade policy, their concerns about the impact the tariffs would have on the u.s. economy isn't it clear that they're saying -- they are sending the signal to the administration that trade policy is at odds with what the fed is trying to do and what the impact of the tax cuts were going to do on the economy? >> i don't think so at all to the degree you're talking when the steel and aluminum, which is oupdslike you in part a are, a fraction of a penny on the cost of a can of beer- -- >> but the bigger picture. let's face it, tariffs are not a growth strategy for an economy, are they >> no, the question isn't are tariffs as such a growth strategy the real question is can we continue to afford these mammoth trade deficits that are sucking money out of our country a lot of the money that is being used for other purposes is money that came from us in the form of trade deficits these are not sustainable things so we have no alternative but 20 t to