can you give us an update on what the fomc thinks about wages? are we finally going to see the you're forecasting a little more inflation. will that translate through to wage growth? >> you know, wages have been gradually moving up. earlier in the recovery there were many different wage measures of course. but so just to generalize, wages running roughly around 2% and they haveoved gradually up between two to 3% as the labor market has become stronger and stronger. i think it is fai it say that some of us, i certainly would have expd wages to react more to the very significant reduction in unemployment that we've had. as i mentioned from 10% to 3.8%. part of that can be explained by low productivity, which is something we talked about at the committee and elsewhere. but nonetheless, i think we had anticipated and many people anticipated that wages, in a world where we're hearing lots and lots about labor shortages, everywhere we go, we hear about labor shortages. where is the wage reaction. it's a bit of a puzzle. i wouldn't say it's a mystery. i

. -- fomc meetings. we can explain actions and answer your questions. i want to point out that having twice as many press conferences does not signal anything about the timing or pace of future interest rate changes. this change is only about improving communications. my fomc colleagues and i will also continue to issue or economic projections on the existing quarterly schedule. now, let me go into more detail over people within the economy, economic projections, and/or policy decision. economic growth appears are picked up in the current quarter, largely reflecting a bounce back in household spending. .. foreign economies continue to expand and overall conditions remain accommodative. these are with the projection, that committee members submitted to the meeting. the projection for growth of gdp 2.8% this year, 2.4% next year and 2% in 2020. compared with the projections made in march, this median growth path is little changed. in the labor market, job gains averaged 180,000 per month over the past three months, well above the pace needed in the longer

not so much to the 25 basis point hike, because that was expected, but the hawkish tilts from the fomc and the expectation that there might be four hikes total through the end of the year. >> right. well, when you read the statement, the language, especially in the first paragraph where they describe the economic outlook for the next three years or so, lots more hawkish wording. but what was striking to me was when you go to the numbers, the projections that the various fomc participants provided, really not much changed at all from the last time they did a dot plot back in march. it's not much. it's true that the sequence of dots for the current year, 2018, now suggests that there are four rather than three, but that is just the movement of one dot. when you look forward at the projections, their projection for gdp growth really peaks in 2018, then there is a deceleration in 2019 and a further deceleration in 2020. the unemployment rate comes down a little more, so that's a little more robust. but the inflation rate is flat throughout this period. really, not much changed in the numbe

the yield curve is something people are talking about a lot, including fomc participants. you have a range of views, we are going to continue to be talking about it. it is one of many things we talk about. that discussion is really about what is appropriate policy. and how do we think about policy as we approach the neutral rate? how do we understand what the neutral rate is? how do we know where it is and what are the consequences of being above or below it? when people are talking about the sloping yield curve, that is what they are talking about. we know why the yield curve is flattening, we are raising federal funds rate. it makes sense that the short end would come up. the harder question is what is happening with long rates? there are many things that move long rates around. there is an embedded expectation of the path of short rates, the term premium, which has been very low by historical standards, and so arguments are made that a flatter yield curve signal embedded in it. what we saw most recently was risk on risk off. in a risk off environment, people want to own

will that hold after today's fomc meeting?nmentsa may's waiting to get a brexit compromise bill done by friday. the prime minister came to a a compromise -- bill. 's could take control of the negotiating process away from may. this clause she has to come up with by friday, how do you appease both sides? what will this clause be? >> that's the question. last night, after this great concession was given and there was this agreement and all these potential rebels stood up, hours later, each side had a different interpretation of what had been agreed. we've had this row in parliament today -- parliament will get quite a lot of say over the final brexit deal. if key thing here, parliament says we don't like it, according to what the rebels want, they should be able to decide or have a say in what happens next. with the government has always said is parliament has a say, if you say no to this deal, the alternative is no deal, no choice, a bad deal or chaos of a new brexit deal. we want to decide, we want to stop the no deal happenin

not so much to the 25 basis point hike, because that was expected, but the hawkish tilts from the fomcxpectation that there might be four hikes total through the end of the year. >> right. well, when you read the statement, the language, especially in the first paragraph where they describe the economic outlook for the next three years or so, lots more hawkish wording. but what was striking to me was when you go to the numbers, the projections that the various fomc participants provided, really not much changed at all from the last time they did a dot plot back in march. it's not much. it's true that the sequence of dots for the current year, 2018, now suggests that there are four rather than three, but that is just the movement of one dot. when you look forward at the projections, their projection for gdp growth really peaks in 2018, then there is a deceleration in 2019 and a further deceleration in 2020. the unemployment rate comes down a little more, so that's a little more robust. but the inflation rate is flat throughout this period. really, not much changed in the numbers themsel

the fomc's positive outlook on the economy signaled a slightly faster pace of rate hikes with two more increases expected by the end of the year. this move was reflected in the fed's dot plot which saw three more members update their look on future rate hikes the more hawkish line from the fed came from surprise investors who expected three rate hikes this year. >>> speaking after the federal reserve chair jerome powell outlined his thoughts. >> we've seen inflation move gradually up towards the 2% objective. part of that has been idiosyncratic things dropping out from last march, which were holding measured inflation down. part of it is the continued tightening in the labor market and the economy more broadly pushing inflation up we continue to think and the committee continues to think that we are just about at our 2% goal, but as i mentioned not ready to declare victory until we sustain that. >> it must be said that a hawkish fed has markets now trading in the red this morning. it is another big central bank day as well. we have the european central bank, the ecb meeting later today

those represent votes on the fomc.on monetary affairs, an important position, here is what he said about the it is not a solid signal. i would be inclined to think about ierms of re noise than signal. what the fed will do is look at the da and take his clue from there. the dots are an exercise in forecasting. it is true the markets also saw a hawkish change. inflation stronger. i think people should pay stron attention to what he said at the press conference. he sees uncertainty about the natural rate of unemploy he said the fed policy will be guided by incoming data. we will keep our minds open. we are seeingorhawkishns andne: up next is the ecb boj at course. what is expected out of mario draghi? mario draghi, in jt a few hours, and the bank of chinas expected to raise its rate by five points. there is mario draghi. they are seen discussing the qe exit. he is cautious. he wants to see inflion staying near thet. he wants to see the economy getting stronger. he is going to say yes, we discussed it. save the details for

the fomc statement -- how has that impacted the structure of the fx market?ments we saw from mario draghi and jay powell were reiteration's, monetary policy changes over the next year. flat to negative interest rates in the eurozone at least through the end of next year and probably another 100 basis points of rate rise in the u.s. thattraordinary diversions affects emerging-market currencies. vonnie: talk about em. we have seen ripples that could turn into tremors ndm countries em countries.in where are the red flags? , the the fed raises rates impact on high debt emerging markets is very consequential. i expect that trend to continue of weakening. vonnie: once the fed moves higher, more dangerous territory, or is it price dan? >> markets are efficient but with employment at the level it is, historical lows, increase tensions around trade, those are things that can contribute to increased volatility going forward. vonnie: i want to ask you about the code of conduct. you have been working on this for a long time and done about one year ago. the code of conduc

let's talk about the fomc decision yesterday. let's bring in julia coronado. your answer to this is butaordinarily transparent we also got the news from the fed that we are going to have a press conference at every meeting. this is good for the financial system? julia: i think so. central bank transparency is a good thing and the fed also reduced the degree of promises it is making on interest-rate policy and stripped away forward guidance in the policy statement yesterday. i think the press conferences every meeting remove constraints and they can make any decision at any time and it gives them more flexibility. at the same time of transparency, there is less walking in of a predetermined rate path, and they are removing some constraints put in place in prices. vonnie: what about constraints -- sorry, caroline. caroline: sorry, can strengths we are starting to see being used in the ecb, but do you make of the fact we could see some sort of sign of normalization from the ecb, perhaps not as quickly as expected on the rate hike path? julia: the market reaction

futures we have the fomc coming up all eyes on the dots a they're very much expected to be a hike. dow opening up aut 12 points lower. nasdaq about 1 point higher. lackluster as far as markets are concerned. that's it for today's show in a cnbc exclusive, steve sedgwick will be speaking with prime minister theresa may later toy. da >>> it is 5:00 a.m here are your top five at 5:00 a judge okaying at&t's $85 billion takeover of time warner. is a huge new round of media deals in the works >>> the federal reserve likely to raise rates again today, is this a threat to the bull market. >>> shares of zte plunging the telecom giant resuming trading following safsnctions alleviating. >>> and seattle rolls back its employee head tax. it's wednesday, june 13th.

can we get more consensus among the fomc meeting -- members? kathleen: yes.ke on wednesday, the conclusion of a two day meeting is a done deal. inflation up to target, retail sales have rebounded. employment fell again. the bottom line is the fed is expected to single a cautious gradual approach because they want to make sure inflation stays at the 2% target. let's look at a gtv charge on -- chart. the green line is 2%. you can the this white line, the main number, the headline pce deflator. but if you look back over six years, only one time have they gone above 2% and state there. the fed is likely to signal caution. how will they do this? they update their summary of economic projections. when people talk about the steps, that is what they are talking about to signal their forecast. bloomberg economics says they expect an even split to remain on the number of hikes, evenly split between one more or two more this year. if it goes to that larger number, if more on that side of the fence, markets will react. ramy: let's move across the pond and look at the ecb

they report in the beige book and then in person at the fomc meeting and they come back and say that concerns about changes in trade policy are arising, i think it's fair to say. and you're beginning to hear repos of companies holding off on making investments and hiring people. the economy is very strong. the labor market is strong. growth is strong. we don't see it in the numbers. it's not there. i would put it down as more of a risk >> steve liesman cnbc. you said there's a difference of opinion among economists, but looking a the longer run gdp growth rates, or the members of the committee, there's not a lot of difference. it's 182 or depending how you count it. is that showing us that not a single member of the committee including yourself, mr. chairman, agrees with economists over at the white house that they can achieve long run sustained growth rates at 3% or higher. do you believe in th? >>ou know, firstf all,at's a re think. it's not that we're on the same number but there are a range of views about potential growth. and there's so much untendercer around this. the thing ab

heard, jerome powell is giving himself more license to talk more regularly to the markets after each fomceeting. anna: we've had a few pieces of citing one person saying it's a big unanswered qution wit regard to the federal reserve. estions w much liquidity do they need to keep in the system as we've seen overnight interest rates increasin consider asave to whenve on from a time everything is very confident about what the u.s. economy is doing to the ce of rathere tightening than easing. and combined with what's happening with the ecb juncture we will talk about with our meeting later on today. there is a lot of nervousness out there about the amount of sovereign debt and away in which the fed wl talk to the market about re it. but were not seeing any really asar signs, to my knowledge, to any change in language about the pace of tightening. matt: yesterday we were talking abou forecast for the 10 2021yield to go to 6% by because of the amount of debt the u.s. is taking o at the same time money costs are being driven higher because rates are being raised. we saw the tenure go up to 3%, n

the focus next week is going to be on the meeting off the fomc, and they would like to raise rates.avier: thank you very much, and have a good weekend. and let's talk about one of the big players, apple might be scaling back iphone production. a memo in which they alerted suppliers it was liable to be ordering 20% fewer components in the next production cycle sparking rumors. it is a problem for taiwan-based fofoxconn, one of apple's top suppliers. foxconn has major factories in china and has to deal with the follow from the u.s.-china trade dispute. the company is optimistic and say the dispute is not about trade but technology. foxconn's founder finds himself caught between the top economies, and he believes there is opportunity. >> i believe this is a critical turning point, especially because of the ongoing trade friction between china and the united states. i believe this is not a trade conflict but a competition and comparison of technology. china lies behind the u.s., and that is why he wants foxconn to be a pioneer of china's smart manufacturing which leads on manufacturing

before the fomc decision at 2:00 p.m. tomorrow. thedollar firmer against yen and also against the euro as we head into the fed decision and ecb meeting as well on thursday. .2%. crude adding certainly a long way off from recent highs. for more on today's market bring inet's jpmorgan's asset management global market strategist. it's kind of the quiet period right now. we are in june and kind of looking for catalysts. willie fomc meeting provide any kind of catalyst for the rest of the summer, given that things ? ll be quiet >> think it's going to be a combination of the fed tomorrow and the ecb thursday. a big part to me of the dollar strength we've been seeing of late is an expectation the fed will keep hiking rates this year, that u.s. economic growth will be fairly solid and expectation the ecb is on hold. we will get a little bit of a glimpse into the ecb playbook, so i think it's the juxtaposition between these two meetings and the differences and facts that arise out of them that stand tove marke e rm. joe: you sometimes hear

the fomc meeting that we had and the movement on the dollar interest the e.c.b.s around the gold market but beyond the 1280 level, a technical support level, the level is 1250. this quarter is a weak period for physical demand but we're also seeing a number of the acro indicators line up to create a weak backdrop for the gold margaret. lower we see gold at a level. >> that's right. last time we were at 1250 was in december 2017, and just ahead of a december fomc meeting. at that point india and china came in and bought quite strongly. ndia, a key level to watch, 10 grand. that is a psychologically important level. haidi: we're looking at this correlation, the relationship with the dollar and gold. it is getting really quite confusing. in the correlation to the dollar, the lowest since 2016. we saw this similar phenomenon leading into the brexit vote and then it flipped, the correlation, that is. then we saw the rally. is that likely to happen? what sort of driving are we seeing at the moment? >> the dollar is the most important driver for the gold market at the m

fomc has, the fed or suggested they will raise rates to more times this year and probably three more times in 2019. in contrast, other centralks like the ecb, rba who are apparently in no rush to remove monetary policy, nation -- accommodation. generate upside risk for the u.s. dollar. the second theme supportive of the u.s. dollar is escalation in trade tension. that is a major headwind to global economic activity, largely because it impacts negatively economic and investor sentiment. it will also disrupt global supply chain. all of these are headwinds to global growth and i add to that the rising financial tension in emerging markets. all of these are major headwinds to global economic activity, and it is usually an environment where the u.s. dollar can potentially do well. we come to that team about emerging markets, as well, but i want to focus on the monetary policy divergence one and you suggest we have these rates differentials playing out in the dollars favor. but the bank of england, no change expected there. wel us what happens because have central banks going in very diffe

inflationry rates of by any means but there is an uptick in the numbers, and that is part of what the fomcccount. alix: i want to see where the price increase came from. mill productseel climbed over 4%. that is the biggt vance w have seen since february 2011. the cost of fuel surged the most in about three years. we also had some bottleneck issues, firms citing transportationotenecks and lack of truck drivers forcing them to pay more to get the goods delivered on time. a lot of the specific input costs being raised for certain companies. ira, how does the fed manage that when you have a bifurcated inflation and not a lot of pricing power? ira: the fed is more worried about producer prices -- consumer prices than producer prices. that is somethat t f re of. i don't think they are worried so much about margins. happen tof margins contract because prices in general are going up, we have to fight that. we don't want companies to have as much pricing power may be as -- because it is the consumer and household sector that get hurt. cpi you saw yesterday's number and you saw that real wages were

we think back to early this year before the march fomc meeting where even governor brainerd, one of the more coverish on the board of governors, gave the from head winds to tail winds speech, and there was much more enthusiasm around the tax stick husband earlier in the year. now wee heard policy makers pare back that tone. still, sticking to the gradual removal of policy is necessary, fund mental economy is sound. but the chair and others have highlighted that this was a low-risk before that has become a more prominent risk, but as yet, they don't see it impacting the outlook. but at some point, the writing is on the wall, and they need to build in the first round of tariffs into their outlook. vonnie: what happens when we reach the zenith? when there isn't an impact more that you can actually put tariffs on, do things escalate beyond that then to sort of treasury buying? does china start selling treasuries? if you look in the library, you'll see there's only so much that the u.s. can put tariffs on. ellen: right narcotics sense, president trump choosing 10% on $200 billion in chinese

most people are trading after the fomc and the ecb this morning.maybe the most reaction in the 2-10 curve, 27 basis points on a spread and it looked like it -- and it looks like it will continue to narrow, but if or when it goes to zero is another question. right now being played out in two different fields. we will see how that ends up in a little while and get the answer to the match in about an hour's time, but crude oil at 66.39, but that will change once there is an agreement between those two countries. can see a risk off tenancy in gold futures, and the dollar index is stronger. even some emerging-market currencies are also benefiting from the central bank actions of the last you days. let's go to a global macro movers. have some now that we certainty about the end of bond buying and the fact that there will be no moves on interest rates until next year, stocks are higher. south korea, down by 1.8%, and some other moves which we have already mentioned that australian dollar move is a fascinating one as well. comcast of course is in the news,

vonnie: just a quick word on the fomc decision.nt out the balance sheet will also be under consideration clearly by investors. this is where we saw the huge balance sheet run-up. we just started to roll off some securities. investors will be wondering how fast that will go. an interest will be important thing to watch and what the fed does with that. caroline: i love it. i sometimes think the simple ones are the winners, but this time i am going to have my allegiances particularly with the u.k. dani burger. it is my first time judging. it was a great chart. i really want to quote one of my favorite artists and say, you are never too big for your boots. caroline: fantastic presentation, brilliant ahead of the all-important fed decision. ♪ vonnie: breaking news, the nasdaq has hit a record. 7701 .02, up at 6/10 of 1%, 42 points. let's have a quick look at what is helping it get there. it is loading in my bloomberg. met pharmaceuticals as well as some other bioscience pharma companies are sending it up. lands end doing quite well, up

can you give us an update on what the fomc thinks about wages? are we finally going to see that wage growth pick up this year? i know you're casting more inflation, but is that going to translate to wage growth >> you know, wages have been gradually moving up. earlier in the recovery they were -- there are many diffe wage measures, of course but just to generalize, wages were running roughly around 2% and they've moved up to in between 2% and 3% as the labor market has become stronger and stronger i think it's fair to s that some of us and i certainly w have expected wages to react more to the very significant reduction in some of that was stemmed from low productivity which is something we've t about. nonetheless, we anticipated and many people anticipated in a world where we're hearing lots and lots about labor shortages wherest the wage reaction? i would say it's a puzzle. the it's a bit of a puzzle and frankly i do think there's a lot to like about low unemployment one of the things is you will see pretty much people who want to get jobs. man

this week has been a good week, a bullish week for fixed income even after a hawkish fomc.-year treasuries trading at 2.90, so not breaking through the 3% mark. also ten-year bunds retracing all the way back from 50 basis points 24-hours ago to 38.5 basis points now >>> the ecb announced they will end their asset purchase program by the end of this year but will keep interest rates at current record lows "through the summer of 2019 or as long as is necessary. that guidance sent the euro towards the worst week in 19 months, with analysts pushing out their rate hike expectations as they try to descipher the phrase through the summer. >> through the summer doesn't mean through september, if it was september we would say september. as i said at the beginning, it tells that this decision has been taken in the presence of a strong economy, with increasing uncertainty. >> while president draghi acknowledged political uncertainty has risen, he wentln italy's fears in the eurozone. >> we have 19 countries, we are bound to have 19 elections every now and then it may well be that diff

and nike moved higher and visa as take a look at 10-year treasury, that's moving higher ahead of the fomc next week. at 2.97% and the financials move higher along with that. nasdaq, we talk about the tech-heavy nasdaq, we watched , all-time high. third straight record close, 18th record close of this year and so many winners that moved it along including tesla. i'll get to that. the small caps are totally separa fm all things trade and the dollar, and know this particular index is up about 9% this year. another record. here's a look at tesla. i mentioned tesla. the shareholder meeting was yesterday after the bell. elon musk, very patient, hour and a half, answered all the questions, among which he said the model 3 is on target for 5,000 week, pumping those out. up 9.7%. be d in a couple of years, and also about batteries and the factory in shanghai. a lot of good news that gave it a boost. david: happy day for markets, no doubt. nicole thank you very much. melissa? melissa: let's bring in jonathan hoenig, fox news contributor, heather zumrawinga. one day we care about the trade war, the n

the reserve bank residents talk about it in the fomc meeting, and we talk about it in the minutes. risingoncerns seem to be . for the first time we are hearing about decisions to postpone investment, postpone hiring, postpone making decisions. is it in the forecast, the outlook? is no. -- the answer we don't see it in the performance of the economy, and we don't have any way to put it in the outlook just yet. that is what that is. stephanie: before we get on to the forward guidance, i'm interested in what governor say onand lowe have to the trade point. there is the perception that the countries that are more involved with china will have some protection. than directrather economy, the japanese the indirect impact on the japanese economy could be quite significant. tariffs byalation of and and china continues, actually implemented, that would significantly affect the east -- china,y chain taiwan, southeast asian economies. i really hope that this rescinded,could be and normal trading relationship between u.s. and china would prevail. this is a matter of great concern for japan. jus

also of course as we look at the fomc meeting, bloomberg economics is saying whatever that number comespect it to change anything because that is set in stone. looking at china, china's growth, looking at china's growth last 12 years, this is what it means, slowing growth, industrial output, the same as last month. fixed asset investments also. onight spot, retail sales. that might surprise to the upside. yvonne: thank you. as you mentioned, inflation growth, those are the key things to look out for. the central banks have that on the radar as they prepare for crucial policy decisions. let's get to kathleen hays, the global economics and policy editor. let's start with the fed kicking off the central bank's best on wednesday. kathleen: a rate hike, the second one this year considered a done deal. inflation has risen. it is near the target. retail sales are rebounding. lower unemployment, all expected to support the rate hike. the fed is expected to move slowly because they want to make targetflation at the 2% is sustainable. let's go to want to -- go to one of our charts. this is the co

so the fed's fomc meeting started at 1:00 p.m.tern time, it is under way, and tomorrow we'll get most likely that rate hike, trish? h: we'll be watching for it. thank you so much. you must tune in for our coverage, live here tomorrow's big federal reserve decision. big question, will they raise interest rates for the second time this year? you can find out at 2:00 p.m. right here on fox business. the conversation doesn't end here, i love hearing from you. head over to my facebook page, head over to my twitter account, don't forget that one, otherwise you end up with the dolphin lady, and don't forget to "like" my personal a facebook.com/real trish regan. it is an important time, and i think that every single one of us should feel a little bit better. i know there's a long ways to go and you heard colonel hunt say in the program, it could take two years for full denuclearization, but as ed rollins was just saying, look, this is a step, or as doug wead said in the show, a presidential historian. this is a historic step. we're all lo

. >> fomc is next week to your point.the talk about trade, this really has become a trade war of words between trump and macron and justin trudeau, in fact, i want to show you -- one of the tweets from president trump, there's so many to pick from. look at this one, please tell prime minister trudeau and macron that they are charging tariffs and the surplus 150 billion. canada keeps farmers and others out, look forward to seeing them tomorrow. >> the truth is a lot of the countries have tariffs in effect, in the case of carry, 275% and -- cheryl: 300% according to president trump. >> it's still a big number, it wasn't that long ago that canada was using promise doctrine to take intellectual property to hand it over to generic counterparts. the rhetoric is pretty harsh. cheryl: listen to what macron just tweeted. the american president may not mind being isolated but neither do we mind signing a six-country agreement if need be because the countries represent values, represent economic market which has history behind it an

interest rat ich brought flatio if you look at what volcker was go back and read the minutes of the fomc meeting and see how the committee thought about what they were doing. adopting a milton freeman -- milton friedman approach. reducing approach was money growth to reduce inflation. they abandoned the idea that they were going t pay attention to market interest rat during that regime. if you look at the data, what happened was that over the course of booker's tenure, -- of tenure, nominal interest rates came down, which is consistent with the story. story has the causation going the other way. think higher inflation -- sorry, did you have a question? julie:e have to leave it there. stephen williamson is a professor of economics at the university of western ontario. we appreciate it. secretary of state mike pompeo is set to join a press briefing with an update on the summit with north korea following the president's comments earlier today. thismberg. ♪ scarlet: "what'd you miss?" at the podium.is mike pompeo is set to make an appearance at the daily press briefing. we want to check in w

the yield movements could follow a lot from the other side of the atlantic after fomc is done.rt. looking at the implications for markets, there's a bit of a distraction with the geopolitical circus early on this week.this is the key reversal. long-term moving averages has historically signaled we are due for a shift. fundamentals when it comes to changed.t really what with the fed say when you take into account these more upbeat inflation numbers and their presumed carry through to wage growth, that would send the dollar to its next leg in strength? >> i think you hit the nail on the head. it is really about what aspects of inflation are more persistent, and which ones -- it would certainly not react too much to the basis of mobile charges or fuel prices stabilizing, they would not by oilct to inflation's prices going higher. extent prices are picking up and we have seen some momentum coming through in wages, we can't be sure, but if you were to plot core u.s. inflation and wage composite against unemployment, you see there is a bit of attraction in the phillips curve relation

one way to do so is having a press conference like this after our fomc meetings.will do that in january. that will give us opportunities to explain actions and answer your questions. aix: joining us now is themberg view economist and vice president of global asset allocations for a bank. ofl us the significance someone who comes in and says press conference at every meeting, no for guidance. what kind of fed or we looking at? >> a rational fed that is truly data dependent. the day his name came up as finalist for fed chair i wrote he will implement for press conferences a year. the reporters ask him about it. he alluded to this move, and then he made this masterful move. it was not in the statement. it is wonderful news. when it was in his opening statement, he said we will not start this until january. the markets freaked out, then came back. he calmed everything. you don't have august 2 on the table. aboutwhat is interesting the market action is the rhetoric he was more hawkish, but dollar rallied then sold off. the curve continues to flatten. the curve makes se

parent company >> ready for a rate hike the federal reserve is expected to raise interest rates at an fomcng alan greenspan will join us exclusively this hour. >> all right let's get to our big story, of course, for today and, in fact, it was yesterday when we finally heard from judge leon after his deliberations over the course of a couple of months after that trial that took place in which the government was trying to stop at&t from buying time warner but it simply, the government failed to do that. the 172-page opinion made it clear that he sided firmly with the view of the lawyers representing at&t and time warner, believing their deal to combine would not pose a competitive challenge, would not be a hardship for consumers in any way. and that deal will close after being announced more than 18 months ago it will close next week. that, of course, is good news conceivably for time warner shareholders, sh quite weak in part on downgrade this morning from the firm of mofet nathanson who is concerned about the increasing debt load at the company and its ability to maintain its current divid

three months ago they never really talked about it, now, at the press conferences, the fomc statementbook, we are seeing more and more where the fed is acknowledging that it's a threat, that it's got business owners anxious. that it's got prices misaligned with where they should be. won't impact the decision, i think more importantly you have the producer price index which is what producers take to make the products we buy coming in stronger than expected and the same thing on the consumer side. once you look at the core, that was relatively benign. the ks when they talked about the symmetrical targeting, in other words, if inflation hits 2%, all hell is goto break loose and derail this economy. and powel is saying, hey, that's not necessarily true. we're okay with it going slightly above for a little bit and slightly below for a little bit. i think the key with him is he worked on wall street. he's a carlisle guy. he understands markets a lot more -- neil: not an economist. could be in his favor. >> i think it's our favor as a matter of fact. he can relate to real world impacts. how

the federal reserve, obviously, a dark cloud over the markets but one of the fomc voting members is sayinghad a whole lot of enthusiasm at the beginning of the year, now we have mostly anxiety. so it's not -- it's neither here nor there, but it's that sort of question mark that puts a lot of big investors on pause. neil: couldn't you make an argument as some did with me, charles, that, yeah, higher tariffs, inflation, you and i pay them, not governments. but that they could also slow the economy. and the good news for wall street, perverse as this seems to sound, a is that they might be welcomed if they prevent the federal reserve from hiking interest rates. >> that is one of the ironies, because, of course, when it comes to the fed you don't want an economy that's taking off. their whole idea is to tap the brakes, and that could be one of the strange silver linings, if you will, of all this. we've got three members of the fed speaking today, two more speak after the close. i want to hear what they all have to say. i'm talking voting members, so it's critical what they have to say about th

market person, we have the triple crown of central banking this wednesday, thursday and friday with the fomcd the bank of japan. doctor, thiss a time where central banks have to recalibrate away from crisis-era policies, but that recalibration could be one of the biggest fundamentals to affect capital on the planet. your thoughts? >> these central banks are all really good at never surprising anyone and they do their jobs well. they let you know in advance what is going to happen. i'm not expecting any surprises this week. the fed will raise rates none of them will indicate much of a change in response to italy, much of a change in response to red hot jobs numbers we have here in the united states, but just a continued, very gradual predictive process of normalization. >> being predictable and not doing anything surprising, i understand that and it makes perfect sense. but that does not mean that e interpretation of those actions by the markets won't be a bit more surprising in terms of volatility we have had some temper tantrums in the past. this is going to be a potential global taper with

we'll be at a placvely assuming we stay on this path where interest rate be in the zone of what fomc participants think is roughly neutral. and at that point, it would no longer be accurate for us to say that the committee this that policy is accommodativwe kno com we kind of don't think it's here yet. it's certainly coming. i think the market will understand that. the real message is you're getting close to the neutral rate it's a characterization about where policy is. it's not a statement, really, that should upset the markets. but we'll obviously discuss it carefully in meetings and communicate about it>> japan ner would you expand on the views on the downside rusks especially in regard to our trade issues many people are concerned that the united states made the underpinnings of the liberal order, the united states has created and built up in the post-war environment that will of course have tions on the global economy as well as the u.s. economy so would you -- can i have your views on that? >> sure. so, you know, as i mentioned earlier, i'm really committed to staying in our l

they're saying the could also switch to holding press conferences following every fomc meeting in anaintain transparency after forward guidance is removed. which may or may not happen. you can see what the fed's problem isly looking at this chart. what happens in september why is that so low it's because there's no press conference there and it ticks back up i don't quite know exactly what's wrong with this process that the should really be thinking about raising rates every time it meets rather than every quarter. that system seems to work pretty well some people seem to feel that. the chairman apparently among them seems to think thinking about a press conference every month will allow to move and have greater flexibility i think this is something the fed is going to process these numbers today. certainly feel better about hitting the target and maybe accelerating a little bit the rate hike cycle here >> all right >> when you're at 8% o9%, you're trying to get to 10%, you do a quarter point every meeting. that's the way it used to be because you were actually trying to change it by

that change, kansas city fed president esther george becomes a voting member of the fomc starting withg call on disney this morning. pivotal downgrading the stock all the way to sell from hold. the firm noting that disney will either have to pay a higher price for those fox assets because of the bidding war that we're seeing with comcast, our parent or if it doesn't get the deal, then if it falls through, it doesn't get the synergies from the deal it seems like a lose/lose. joining us now, brian wieser at pivotal. when we ask you how to pronounce your name, you said like the band have you been watching the coverage or is that what you tell everyone? >> i just heard the tail end of it no, that is a simple way to describe how to pronouncit >> that's what i thought did you hear that, sorkin? anyone asks him, he says that. we spent the whole morning talking about that instead of your call, by the way, which probably isn't good. but initially when i heard it, it was like, wait a second if they keep trying, they're going to pay too much. and if they don't keep trying, then they don't get the

that will continue inflation is slightly above target range, which the fomc has said is okay at thisoint >> do you have one foot out the door or do you structure the portfolio to anticipate higher interest rates and higher inflation? >> i think you structure the portfolio to anticipate higher interest rates and higher inflation. luckily cash is an asset class that is earning something, 2% or so as such people are easily able to go to cash without having too much of an impact on their portfolio. in fact, if you look at the first quarter, cash was the only asset class that had a positive return >> so, stay -- you have not changed your asset allocation? have you raised more cash? is that what you're telling us to do under your breath or staying fully invested >> we're staying fully invested. several large clients have definitely changed some of their thinking and have put more into the cash and liquidity markets, just to sort of keep powder dry. if there is a market connection they can enter into it without trepidation or concern, and they have plenty of cash to do so great. thank you.

they will get to convey at three different w in the fomc statement is love, which they don't really changech. but they do get your attention. in the summary of economic attractions, the infamous dot chart and then how chairman powell presents himself at the press conference after the meeting. i like to listen for. maria: jon hilsenrath, the federal reserve may consider holding a news conference after every policy meeting to change the notion that policy changes are dependent on a news conference. tell us about this. >> right now for theast couple of years they've only moved when they've had press conferences. that kind of ties their hands. i think the idea of having a press conference every meeting ons and allows them tke a step that any meeting. i don't think it in any way suggest that their policy path. they just have more freedom of action. >> been sent, bob nardelli. one of the things you're responsible for his global strategy and economics. what are you telling your clients in the marketplace today on emerging markets investment opportunities, and better? >> so, the key issue is how s

the fomc decided at its last meeting in may to leave the cost of borrowing in the range of1.5to1.75%re wasn't time for it to be voted on. what sarah woollaston has said, the promised further amendment in the lords must resemble dominic grieve's amendment or lords likely to bring that forward and that to be passed. so it would appear she is expecting to have the promise at least of a dominic grieve—like amendment within the next 24 hours. it would suggest she and other rebels will vote with the government and take theresa may into a second day of difficulty here at the house of commons. but it is that meaningful vote that would cause problems if she loses that later. full coverage here on the bbc news. c myrie will be here. now the weather with matt taylor. it is a bit cloudier and fresher in some parts. but for the majority another dry day. that includes some in western scotland, where for the likes of stornoway, today is the 22nd consecutive day without rain. that however will change in around 24 hours. this area of cloud out in the at llan atlantic is getting picked by the jet stre

they interjected that wo back at the last fomc statement, that suggested they are allowing inflation to run hot >> we will wrap this up. we will be here for the next couple of hours. a lot more to do >> thank you very much >>> when we come back, did today's meeting change the hearts and minds of leaders around the world former australian prime minister kevin rudd will weigh in with his reaction to the summit give us the picture for stability in the region. >>> and the sector to watch today as the united states and north korea try to narrow their differences, we'll talk about the defense stocks in the next half hour. let's look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers it can detect a threat using ai, and respond 60 times faster. it lets you know where your data lives, down to the very server. it keeps your insights from prying eyes, so they're used by no one else but you. it is... the cloud. the ibm cloud. the cloud that's for all . ai ready. secure to the core. the ibm cloud is the cloud for smarter business. secure to the core. when it comes to travel, i sweat the details. late che