if that is what the fomc desk is that what the fomc is going to signal today -- is that what the fomc is going to signal today? deborah: i think so. as a slow growth environment continues to be slow and not picking up steam as well as not going into any type of expected recession, then for the time being, the statistical information they will be looking at will continue to validate that being on pause for a while in that 1.5% area is probably the right place to be. guy: breaking news. the lebanese prime minister is going to resign. we will come back and deal with that with a little more detail in a moment. let's carry on the conversation surrounding the fed. let's talk a little bit about the effectiveness of another rate cut or another two or three rate cuts. army reaching the point where rick cuts does have an actual meaningful impact on the u.s. economy? we must be at the point where the cost of money is so cheap that it is no longer an issue. deborah: i think to some degree that is absolutely the case. we are in an easy money environment or easy rate environment, and whether you ar

we are waiting the seventh decision, the fomc expected to cut its interest rate for a third straight. after the announcement at the top of the hour, jay powell will host his news conference. investors will be scrutinizing his every word, listening for a read on how policymakers will move next. i think the phrase of the week is hawkish i think the phrase of the week is hawkish cut. tom: hawkish cut. or dovish types -- we will see how we try for the composition. --for the composition. straightening out my bow tie. you know where the markets have been, the s&p of the record high. the dollar has been -- there it --we are rather blended index. we will talk to jeffrey rosenberg about this. one indication of bond-marke market dynamicst. on the treasury built to the benchmark 10-year spread. it is one of the spreads jeffrey rosenberg looks at. scarlet: joining us from los angeles is the guggenheim cio and cofounder. for the with us in new york is jeff rosenberg. does a hawkish cut look like, and how does jay powell communicate it? >> i don't think he wants to be too hawkish. they're looking

the dollar index weakening off the back of the fomc. cigna came in with great earnings and a revised higher full-year forecast. the stock taking a bit of a dive down 2.5%.5% -- coming up, we will hear from the ceo david cordani after that result. guy: let's talk about what is happening in europe. the oil sector is lower because of shell. the mining sector is down. chinese pmi data was super weak overnight. that is what we are focusing on, particularly the manufacturing side. we've got this sorry surrounding what is going on with the trade narrative. the lighthizer deal, basically the chinese aren't convinced. volume is reasonably good today. we are seeing a big moving yields, as you can see. bonds are bid, yields moving lower. we are -41 on the german ten-year. . chinese data is feeding into that story. treasury yields moving exactly the opposite direction you would have thought if the fed is going to stand pat from here. keep an eye on the $97 level on the dxy. euro-dollar, 1.11. we are absolutely flat on the session. vonnie: the fed c

we will speak to the fomc member -- member very soon. retaliation, the u.s.ill slap tariffs on european goods including craft whiskey and wine after a green light for $70 billion of product. uniting brexiteers, boris johnson presents his exit proposal to parliament with signs he has two new borders for the backstop that is gaining traction domestically very what will the e.u. say? matt: we are less than a half-hour open -- away from the open. $1502. trading for the question many are asking is why has not gold climbed further? one of the reasons could be because of the chinese on holiday. another reason is the curve is steepening and that is a reason investors could look to fixed income investment rather than precious metal. look at the futures in terms of equity index. we are looking at european futures trading lower, gas futures on .3%. cash futures unchanged with the ftse is down .4%. s&p futures are higher but it could be the same kind of head fake we saw yesterday. what do you see in the gmm? anna: good point because we were talking of u.s. futures in a p

while most em holding steady before the fomc decision.he korean yuan, the recent rally may have been excessive given the overall economic future for south korea. belowout the yen hovering 109. the boj meetings will be game changers. tracy: let's check in on india. we have a positive start to the holding. it's holding pretty strong actually at this point in time. contrary to the rest of asia, we have been holding onto stronger gain. it is off the back of the big move yesterday of 1.5%. 11,800 was the crucial resistance level to take that down. contributions coming in across the board not just from only the banks, but even the other smaller names within the index itself which has started to contributed. a more broad-based move into today's session. the mid-cap index has been contributing over the last sessions as well. whether or not this continues, we will have to wait and watch. this is the crucial monthly for the markets as well. you will see that spiking as we move towards currencies. in today's session, the key highlight has been the b

shery: in the meantime, we continue to see diverging views coming out of the fomc.we expect powell to stand in all of this? michael: everybody is about where they were. the people who have spoken out in recent days have basically reaffirmed positions that they have taken over the last two fed meetings. charlie evans is somewhat devilish. very debit is -- somewhat dovish. jimmy bullard is very dovish. neel kashkari also on the dovish side saying he thinks the economy needs additional stimulus, so no one has really changed their position which leaves powell with the majority going into this meeting if he wants to make a cut. shery: mike mckee, thank you for joining us from denver. the latest from the nab conference. for more on what we can expect, let's welcome our guest. dave, great to have you with us. we continue to see very diverse views within the fomc, so how important will the messaging be? dave: the messaging is pretty important because last year at in boston, that is when he talked about how good the economy was going and really increased expectation to rate

we have been seeing, and i think it will be very important to see the progression from here. >> the fomcng towards a rate cut, though. manufacturing is not a huge part of the u.s. economy, but it is a significant part of the u.s. economy. >> oh, it certainly is. and in my midwestern district, we have more manufacturing than the average, so i've heard more reports about this and the weaknesses and what comes from trade uncertainties. but i would say, the thing about monetary policy and what the right positioning is, i definitely think the fomc has been moving to what at one point last year looked like headed for slightly modest, a modest restrictive position. now we have an accommodative position and whether or not one more rate cut at this point is the right decision or not, i think we will just have to go into the meeting and see. >> the consumer is important, as you indicate, for the u.s. economy. nevertheless, if the fed waits until there are signs that the consumer is beginning to roll over, is that too late? >> yeah, i think that would be an important concern, and it's one reason th

dollar strength slowdown theounced fomc projects. but also because you look at inflation expectations in the u.s., they are declining. look at the 10 year treasury breakeven rate. years,age, over 10 inflation is expected to average around 1.5%. this is going to continue to put downside pressures on fed funds futures rate and contain u.s. dollar strength. on friday, ther nonfarm payroll number is very important. you mentioned the job number everyone is going to be watching closely. the survey is for the u.s. at 147,000 jobs. what is your expectation? how do you see those numbers going forward? they are expected by economists to slow. >> that's right. what's going to be more important rather than the pace of job gains is the pace of wage growth. the u.s. economy is basically at full employment, and it has been for quite some time. whether we are at 140, that's not going to be the big mover of u.s. rate expectations, or even the u.s. dollar. a bigger mover will be the pace of average hourly earnings growth. at this stage, judging from t

the fomc promised to monitor data.l justified central banks position in a news conference following the rate decision. >> the policy adjustments we have made since last year are providing and will continue to provide meaningful support to the economy. we believe monetary policy is in a good place. that was a key mission, acting as appropriate to sustain expansion. the markets don't seem convinced the fed is going to be on board. are you? >> we have been above the market in general, how we see the u.s. economy anyway. when you look at the rate cut, when you compare that, where the fundamentals are, where the inflation rate is, we think there is a decent chance the fed is going to be on hold for quite some time, unless we take a substantial hit. you think they are going to be on pause for a substantial period of time. the bond market does not. 2% by the end of the year. fidelity says the markets -- if we are on hold in the market is not pricing that correctly, where does that take you on tenancy echo >> we think going in

context, that's the section responsible for preparing the forecast of inflation and prices for the fomc. i have to admit that katia and i were long time colleagues. i want to assure any lawyers here none of our conversation should constitute my making a request of katia, the federal reserve system or fomc. our second panelist is jared bernstein, a senior panel at the budget on policy and been active many years in the labor market and inequality and policy both in the obama administration and in various think tanks in d.c. and you can read more about his thoughts on the economy. i will turn the presentation over. >> thank you very much, stephanie. it's a pleasure to be here. how do i -- thank you. okay. so, in the spirit of making disclaimers, i should also make the disclaimer that the views expressed here and in the following discussion are my own. they don't necessarily reflect the views of my colleagues at the federal reserve board or research staff at the federal reserve system as a whole. with that said, i will start my presentation by illustrating some of the points that our former

nejra: you've expressed in your view the fomc is more likely to concentrate on go through -- concernsn the near-term. some gdp growth used to signal recession but now, the store seed is around 1%. would you agree? structural and demographic reasons exist for thinking full speed for the economy is closer to 1%. we are some way away from that, and the fed is very keen to make sure we don't get too close to it. we are likely to continue to see easing as long as there is nervousness about the economy stalling. growth very much takes precedence over inflation concerns. ,e've seen core cpi above 2% core pce comfortably below. manus: can i ask, there is a greek -- great disagreement about the dollar high. the view is trump wants a weaker dollar. does a trade deal in your mind deliver a weaker dollar or as a chief economist for the americas , how much impingement has a strong dollar been, if at all in your mind? ofah: it is one of the aims the white house to go for a weaker dollar. a trade deal probably would be helpful in that respect. if we don't get a trade deal, we will see increased risk

the thing about monetary policy and what the right positioning is, i definitely think the fomc has beeng to what at one point last year looked like headed for slightly modest, restrictive position. now we have an accommodative position and if one more rate cut at this point is the right decision or not, i think we will just have to go into the meeting and see. >> the consumer is important, as you indicate. nevertheless, if the fed waits until there are signs that the consumer is beginning to roll over, is that too late? >> i think that would be an important concern which is one reason the committee has tried to get out ahead of this. we have repositioned the policy from being accommodative to policy to being slightly ahead of policy. i would say the weakness in the ism and in manufacturing is something that definitely increases concerns. i'm definitely looking at that data, but at the moment, it still looks like -- my outlook for this year is 2.25%. next year is about 2%. this is a pretty good growth outlook. the question is if we will be able to navigate the uncertainties and some of t

guy: does that point the fomc towards a rate cut? manufacturing is not a huge part of the u.s. economy, but it is a significant part of the u.s. economy. >> it certainly is. in my midwestern district, we have more manufacturing than the average. i've heard about this, and the weaknesses that come from trade uncertainties. the thing about monetary policy and what the right positioning is, i definitely think the fomc has been moving to what at one point last year looked like slightly modest, restrictive position. now we have an accommodative position. whether or not one more rate cut is the right position or not, i think we will just have to go into the meeting and see. have a discussion about that. guy: chicago fed president charles evans speaking to me other woerle iran, before the latest ism data. we spoke in madrid at the global interdependent central banking series. as i say, that was before the ism nonmanufacturing number came out of the united states. we did also see some quite weak pmi data out of the euro zone as well, and out of the united kingdom. the pound is actually

we could see a contentious fomc which takes that off the table.nother risk for the markets this afternoon, no one is expecting it. behindeems to be enough a 25 basis point cut even from fed officials who are pushing back a little bit. maybe that is not the biggest risk. romaine: our thanks. tonight, thehead second part of the david rubenstein conversation with supreme court associate justice ruth bader ginsburg. here is a preview. >> when president clinton became president, you were obviously somebody being considered and president clinton said women don't want her. how could that have been the case when you were the leading lawyer in gender discrimination? [indiscernible] >> i had a comment -- written a 100%nt and it was not supporting the decision. was, the texas law was the most extreme in the nation. ♪ romaine: live from new york, i am romaine bostick. guy: and i am guy johnson in london. this is bloomberg markets. we are looking at the changing state of demographics and what it means for economic growth. taylor riggs has more. to talk to me i

what happened is they held a meeting by video conference, fomc did last week, they're announcing it thisk. unclear why they're doing it at this time in this manner they're trying to tell us as they have for awhile that this is not quantitative easing the amounts, carl, are less than before and they're not designed at lowering long term rates these are purchases on the short end of the curve, carl >> steve, this idea of temporary to permanent, the extension into 2020 for operations, is that a realistic time line or does it extend out from there? >> it is unclear how they're going to handle this there are two things the operations themselves are temporary, but temporary operations they make are also temporary in the sense that they're doing these overnight. they go purchase them overnight. but they expire. what the fed needs to do to do what powell told us needed to be done, which is to get the balance sheet back to the sort of early september time period is to make purchases for its balance sheet to bring it up permanently, not overnight repo operations where they expire and go off balanc

four briefings a year, regular quarterly briefings for the board, fomc, on going monitoring.ework so everybody could see what we're looking at, hold us accountable, the precrisis system, financial crisis happens. call in the s.w.a.t. team and try to stop it. so this is a much more forward-looking thing. so we look at you know, we look at leverage in the banking system. leverage in the non-financial system, asset prices and stability of funding principally in the banking system but not exclusively. if we look across all of those today, i would say that the vulnerabilities for the financial system are moderate over all to say no not low, not high, particularly in areas we're monitoring. asset prices are high and particularly corporate debt. in non-financial borrowing you have household and businesses. households are in good shape. businesses are borrowing a lot. something we're monitoring carefully. again vulnerabilities are moderate overall. >> great. so when you first became chair, you were seeing, you were spotted numerous times carrying paul volcker's book under your arm an

down slightly ahead of that fomc decision.ssion in asia, so investors on hold ahead of the fed. let's take a look at the canadian dollar, popping against the u.s. dollar, up 0.6% after the bank of canada held firm on rates. as we take a look at the winners, we are going to see ge soaring 11%. the free cash flow forecast very constructive. mattel also soaring as an accounting fraud was proven to not be the case. ,o the downside, yum! brands the owner of pizza hut and kfc, those two brands not doing well. taco bell did a little better, but not enough. ,h robinson missed earnings down 14.4%. what youecision and have been talking about, take a look at the 10 year yield into that on the year, really falling. we could just see yields shoot higher. it will be interesting to see whether or not that happens after the fed today at 2:00 p.m. guy: everybody is going to be watching. and we get it hour earlier here in london as a result of the time change. also in london, we are going to get an early election. is it going to break the brexi

the thing about monetary policy and what the right positioning is, i definitely think that the fomc has been moving to what it one point last year look like headed for modest restriction of -- restrictive positions, and we have an accommodative position. whether or not a rate cut is the right decision or not, we will have to have a discussion about that. shery: coming up, boris johnson's plan b. the u.s. prime minister -- the u.k. prime minister said to be considering a backup plan. that coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: this is bloomberg markets, i am shery ahn in new york. amanda: i am amanda laying in toronto. we are turning to brexit. sources telling berdych that boris johnson has a backup plan ready. johnson is trying to reach a deal to exit the block. his first option may look more like a tough initial offer. emma is with us from london. what are we learning about this plan b? emma: this is a scoop from our colleagues in bloomberg news. what we are learning is that the prime minister is open to a plan b should his current blueprint, the one he submitted to the european union

investors are sure to react to the fomc minutes out in a few seconds. i want to go to our own jennifer schoenberger. she is at the fed. jennifer. reporter: fed officials were divided whether to cut interest rates last meeting but agreed that the fed is not on a preset course for monetary policy internal discussions amongst officials at the policy meeting three weeks ago. charles, fed officials decided they're not on a preset course for monetary policy and that they are going to review the data. in fact several members of the committee thought they should offer more clarity to the statement when the change of policy and response to trade uncertainty should be changed. as far as the decision to cut rates, of course there was quite a bit of division. on the whole, most thought it was appropriate to cut-rate by 25 basis points. for those who were in that camp, they wanted to take out further insurance against downside risks to growth, namely slowing global growth, trade uncertainty, lower inflation. a number of participant thought it would better align the

president said she dissented against rate cuts at the past two fomc meetings but would support anotherevidence of a sharper slowdown. she said the u.s. economy's moderation is in line with her outlook for the medium term and adjusting policy might be appropriate if the data were to indicate a broad weakening. global news 24 hours a day and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm selina wang. this is bloomberg. are going to bring back the lines we broke earlier with president trump chiming in on this whole operation in syria with the turkish forces there heading closer to the northern syrian operation-are the border. and the president saying armed forces will not be involved in this operation according to the white house. usour senior editor joining now. what you make of the reaction from the u.s.? it was really fascinating statement for the white house .hat just came moments before handss. is washing his quite frankly. the u.s. said that turkey is going to move forward. trump and one spoke. -- trump enters president erdogan

the fed releasing minutes from its september fomc meeting and on thursday, the main event. u.s.na trade talks resuming in washington. a final word from everyone, oksana are in off, we support -- aranov, lisa hornsby, and gershon distenfeld still with us. gershon: i think the confidence that we have a coherent policy, that it cannot just change on a dime is there. especially in politics, with the impeachment talks and who is going to be the president, what is going to happen in the election in 2020 is going to weigh on the uncertainty and does not bode well for people making long-term decisions. oksana: i do not expect anything at all. it will be a continuation of the one step forward, two steps back. there is no incentive on the part of the chinese to do anything more here. focus on the economic data and that is what will drive the markets. jonathan: lisa hornby, your take? lisa: i wish i could say something that has not already been said by these two, and we want something positive to come out, but we noticed whenever something positive comes out, we get something bad. last wee

the fomc won't have an ia with uk politics but it may feeler benowing regardless of the a second referendum up have potentially with no brexit or a deal that's now more solid between the eu and l uk muchs disruptive to global financial markets. that was one reason why you see interest move up in because there is risk taking on off the table with brexit. >> but beware of decemkr i thou hear you saying that. >> a lot can go wrong in december. >> ah, clkt. brian nick with new vine. thanks very much. >> thanks. >>> job broegt at private businesses picked up in october. according to adp employers adde0 12positions last month, that is slightly above expectations. education, health services ando trantion all saw job gains while manufacturing, construction and miningaw job losses. a separate report showed the economy great annualized rate of 1.9% in the third quart. banks to continue consumer spending offsetting a decline in business investment. r the was slightly better than expected. >>> the ceo of boeing was back on citolill today. dennis mulan rk answered questions from a house panel over the t

policymakers were debating how far the rate pro -- rate cutting theram should extend paving fomc in septemberinutes agreed the downside risk to the economy have increased since july, blaming the uncertainty at home amid the trade war and deteriorating positions across the world. the fed minutes seem to suggest they are thinking maybe one more insurance cut and then they will be done. is there still any value to staying in equities and that kind of environment? >> we have increased our positioning on equity. we still expect as a market one more this year but we think we are still expecting to see profit next year. cushion, inve some our view. that's why we don't want to give a nest -- negative message at this juncture. also we need to see what kind of slow down we are seeing in the which is more shallow recession than anything very big. we look at the three-month earnings and we are not too much concerned on how much is going to collapse. we came back at the beginning of last month after being rather findous, and it is hard to anybody really optimistic and bullish on the japanese economy in th

policyg about monetary and positioning, i deftly think the fomc is moving until last year and headed slightly modest and restrictive oppositions. cut being the right decision, i think we will have to go into the meeting and see. >> data dependent? >> that is right. it sounds like we say that all the time, but we are always looking at the state of the economy. thereat is the job and are many fundamentals which are really quite good for the u.s.. consumer spending is good and the labor market is good. it has been moderated recently. it is definitely the case that business spending has been weaker. >> the consumer is important for the u.s. economy. nevertheless, if the fed waits until there are signs that the consumer is beginning to roll over, isn't that too late? >> that would be an important concern and that is one reason the committee is trying to get ahead of this. we have repositioned policy towards one that is accommodative eric the question is how accommodative we need to be. accommodative. the question is how accommodative we need to be. it definitely increases concerns and i a

the fomc met on september 17 and 18th and said members agreed that downside risks to the economy had increased since the july meeting. they blamed uncertainty at home amid the trade war and deteriorating conditions in the wider world. the fallout from the protests in hong kong is threatening to spread to apple. the communist party's flagship mouthpiece is the people's daily and it has blasted the company for approving an act that tracks -- app that tracks police activity in hong kong. they say it facilitates illegal activity. apple has been put aside for allowing itunes to carry a song that has become a rallying cry to demonstrators. the prime ministers of the u.k. and ireland are to meet later thursday for talks that could seal the fate of brexit. boris johnson and leo bracco will explore whether they can get compromise over the irish border. the u.k. is set to leave the e.u. in three weeks without a deal. negotiations have stalled as the rival camps blame each other for the lack of progress. and italy has sold $7 billion of bonds, more than double its initial estimates, in its firs

want to talk too much about the next meeting but according to the minutes from the last meeting, the fomcdiscussing when it could end the interest rate cut. does that mean we should be looking for a change in language that after this meeting the bar is higher for extra cuts? would leave that to the chair. that is what he gets paid the big bucks to do. we will see where the committee comes down on that. we obviously do use language changes and have in the past. bloombergrg radio and television, a conversation with jim bullard. ugly chart. dakota hudson does not have a dot on here. he will be starting for st. louis tonight? are we going to move on from the dot? james: i am not really a fan of this dot plot but we are stuck with it, i guess. we are trying to give the best forecast we can. i don't think the dot plot probably reflects the true degree of uncertainty that exists. is that we dorio this insurance now but that the economy grows pretty well and labor markets continue to be maybe 2021.20 and we are may be able to take those rate cuts back in the future. if i am putting out my base sc

pmi fell to 51.3 but that is still above that 50 point mark wednesday, we'll see the release of the fomc recent meeting remember policy members voted to cut interest rates but they diverged over the central bank's interest rate path on thursday, we'll see high-level talks on friday, we'll look at u.s. import and export prices during september. >> a lot to watch out for. the u.s. has added 28 companies over a black list saying treatment of muslim workers precipitated the move. including hick vision, the world's largest manufacturer of surveillance manufacturers >> reporter: china's vice premier is headed to washington for discussions with his u.s. counter part, u.s. secretary and trade commissioner the talks will likely be complicated by the decision to black list 28 chinese entities for human rights violations of the muslim minorities, the uighurs in the west. saying it opposes the move arguing is will hamper efforts since it would detour international firms with communicating with the u.s. government prog rels already appear dim after weekend report suggest that china would take subsidi

that is where i think the debate is going to be going at this fomc meeting.this a midcycle adjustment given the tangible slowdown in the data? torsten: there's a lot of evidence it is late cycle. we seen a number of indicators in the consumer sentiment. people today are much more optimistic about today than they are about the future. normally, it happens later in the cycle. we are seeing the liquid see rates go up on the number of people behind on their payments on the consumer side. if you combine that with the trade war, the list of bullet points for why there are reasons to be worried to the downside is pretty long relative to the list of bullet points for upside risks. alix: i like that you brought up delinquencies. it is something similar to what we saw yesterday. the credit default cycle for this year, maybe next year, is ok, but by late 2020, we will jump from 3.5% to 10%. what are you looking at? subadra: the demand for corporate bonds has been extra nearly high. the supply has lagged for a good portion of the year. we saw gangbusters corporate issuan

normally, as you approach airmen fomc meeting, you get a rally.ime of the year, we are looking for the fed to be cutting. they have said they will go ahead with insurance cuts. market has built in more than a 90% profitability -- probability. the market also things with the good news we have been getting on the economy, the insurance need comes to an end with this, and the fed sits tight through the rest of the year. given that we have a trade deal right upon us, at least the first phase of one with china, and the president's tweets -- he will be in chicago. it sounds like the fed is one and done at this point, and they will see what they have to do next year, in 2020, when things give us a new look. vonnie: thank you. we will check in with you again today post fomc meeting. that is ira epstein of lin and associates. guy: time for a bloomberg business flash, the biggest stories in the news right now. at&t shares rising. they won praise from investor elliott management for a three-year plan. the telecom said it will do much of what elliott has been

tom continued his campaign for lower interest rates, saying the governor and the fomc in his view are worst enemies are he rounded off his tweet saying, "they do not have a clue. prophetic!" powell has yet to indicate whether he will cut rates again this year. china has given the upcoming trade talks a lift by agreeing to buy one million tons of u.s. soybeans. this after beijing issued more waivers from import tariffs. we are told state owned and private companies are just about 15 cargoes. mostly for shipment this year and the rest in january. the move may help a more conciliatory atmosphere between high-level officials when they need next week in washington. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. hong kong is reeling after the most serious clashes since widespread unrest erupted. sophie kamaruddin is in one of the districts affected by the protesters. really holding over hong kong this morning. i am outside an interest -- symbolic of the willingness

when you look at the composition of the fed and the fomc, it is much less clear going forward that you will get consensus for a rate cut in the immediate future. guy: has the bond market lost its mojo? a few weeks ago, the story looked absolutely cracking, but now a lot less so. periodsee this current coming to an end, and we go back to where we were? or do you see this current situation is being the new normal we will be in for a few more weeks? marilyn: i think for a few more weeks, we will expect to be pretty much in a range. when you think that we have had some alleviation of the outside risks that we saw, brexit is obviously one of them. also, u.s.-china trade talks. also geopolitical events in the middle east or elsewhere in south america. there has been a lot of risk events that have simmered down a bit. when you look at the data, it is more mixed going into the end of the year. we don't see a catalyst for a very strong rally that we had seen a few weeks ago. guy: in terms of the brexit story, how are you playing that? two gilts look rich right now? marilyn: the brexit story is

minutes from the fomc september meeting show that officials generally agreed that downside risks to growth had increased somewhat in july -- somewhat since july. joining us from dallas is michael mckee. you are also talking to robert kaplan later on in the program. walk me through what the conversation is. michael: you take a look at the bloomberg,on on your and markets have already all but decided we will get a rate cut, but the minutes have suggested not everyone at the fed are on board with that. there's also a question of whether they will accomplish that much now as chairman powell said this week the economy's real problems are slowing growth overseas and trade. coming up, we will ask the dallas fed president whether he thinks more cuts are necessary, and whether they are worthwhile. we will also get his take on companies in his district. what are they thinking about in terms of investment and expansion for 2020 in these trade war times? not to get you all excited, alix, but he has a lot of oil, nice in his district. the cpi may be on the move today, but in september, it was falling.

. >> the fomc has been moving to what at one point last year looked like a slightly modest position. now we have an accommodative position. whether or not one more rate cut is the right decision, i think we will just have to go to the meeting and see. alix: michael mckee is in d.c. michael: investors like to say that bad news is good news because i think they assume that means a fed rate cut ahead. today they will probably have to .eal with some good news factoring index that came out earlier this week set off a whole market tumble because everybody thought its adjusted a recession ahead. you look at where the nonmanufacturing index is, and it is way ahead of the manufacturing index, still very positive, right now at 56.4. the services industry is twice the size of the manufacturing industry in the united states. if this comes in as good news, it is going to make it even harder for the fed to justify cutting rates. we've heard from a number of fed officials over the last 24 hours who have all pretty much said the same thing as charlie evans, that we are going to wait and see. today w

the fomc met on september 17 and 18.embers agreed that downside risks to the economy had increased since the july meeting. they blamed uncertainty at home amidst the trade war and deteriorating conditions in the wider world. turkey says ground troops have moved into northeastern syria after hours of airstrikes against kurdish forces. townstelevision shows coming under attack, and the lira ls turkey came in for widespread condemnation -- the lira fell as turkey came in for widespread condemnation. president trump has since threatened to wipe out turkey's economy if it wipes out the kurds. global news 24 hours a day and on at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. : a bloomberg source says china is still open to a partial trade deal with the u.s. as long as president trump does not oppose anymore tariffs. let's bring in our china correspondent, tom mackenzie, chief economist. i'm kind of getting a brexit-y vibe. is anything new in this deal, or is

weakness, but the thing about monetary policy and what the right positioning is, i definitely think the fomcn moving to what could look restrictive. we are now in an accommodative position. i think we will just have to go into the meeting and see and have a discussion about that. data dependent -- guy: data dependent. >> i think that's right. at times like we are saying that all the time, but that is the job. there are many fundamentals that are quite good for the u.s.. consumer spending has been good. the labor market continues to be good. good fundamentals, but it is differently the case that business spending has been weaker. guy: the consumer is important, as you've indicated, for the u.s. economy. waitingless, is the fed until there are signs that the consumer is beginning to roll over? >> i think that would be an important concern. that's one reason why the committee is trying to get ahead of this. we've reposition policy from being headed for slightly restrictive policy to one that is accommodative. the question is how accommodative we need to be. at the moment, i would say the weakne

will not disclose things that have not been publicly disclosed, other than to say at the time of the fomcting in september, we announced these daily repo facilities and for people who were listening, what that does is help distribute a repo across the system. if big banks are not lending their reserves in the overnight funding markets, a standing repo facility has the purpose of getting rid of those frictions. we have been doing that every day. we are having more deliberations. we will be making some announcements in the very near butre, not just about repo about increasing the size of the balance sheet in a way that improves the reserve levels, especially in light of increased u.s. treasury issuance, tax payments, and other frictions we are seeing. we believe and i believe there is a need to do repo and increase the size of the balance sheet, in order to raise the reserve levels. we have lost reserves since early september mainly because of taxpaying incentives and treasury issuance. michael: jay powell said you are not allowed to finish your interviews without saying, it is not qe. mr.

keep that in mind as we had further into the day and get the fomc minutes and we head toward the endek. your 10 year yield going at 1.56%. yields, butof the well below where we were a few months ago. crude oil getting a bid and holding around the $53 level. those hedge funds bearish late positioned. the dollar flat today and a 52 week high of 1223, we are pretty much near that. a little bit of positive. , up 1.5%.e sox a lot of these names exposed to china. rallying to percent to 3% on some of those names on reports of prospects that china-u.s. trade tensions are going to ease. , these are the large-cap chinese companies, this is the main etf tracking those. 3%, not a massive rally, but something to keep. transports also getting a bid. this is mainly being led by the airlines. all moving higher today. gold interesting. despite some of the risk on tone we are seeing, bold is still holding higher. citigroup out with a note saying they are still predicting 1700 for gold if you can believe that. euro zone finance ministers today in luxembourg and discussing a wide range of issues from bu

the deputy governor coming out right now and speaking to reporters, saying the fomc rate cut actuallyeats market expectation. the korean lawn been under pressure after rising to a formant high this week on trade optimism. let's get the first word news. cut again, reducing interest rates for the third time this year. notual jerome powell signals more further cuts in less the economic outlook changes. treasuries weakened on the announcement while stocks in the dollar both showed slight gains. status ofthe current monetary policy is likely to remain appropriate, as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook of moderate economic growth, a strong labor market, and inflation near are symmetric 2% objective. pg&ere than 360,000 customers are still without power in california as strong winds fanned more fires. the national weather service called on extreme -- extreme morning for much of the southern half of the state through thursday evening with gust reaching 130 kilometers per hour. a-10 large wild are burning across the state but the winds ar

ent is there have been some former members of the fomc that would argue along those lines.? frederic: i think there's a problem here, which is you have to recognize that the central bank has actually, given whatever policies there are, it has to react in order to promote price stability and output stability. in that context, even if you hate the policies and know that you are standing behind the economy as bad policy is put into a place -- put into place, that is the agreement. if you try to actually do policy and say i am going to try to influence what the president does, this is a disaster for central banks because then we are outside of what we should be doing, and it is not consistent with democratic principles. guy: you talked about inflation a moment ago. if i look at the five-year five this. it's been doing it's not been doing this. how does the fed at least get it to 2%, and convince the market that it needs to get it to 2%? frederic: i think this is an argument for lowering rates. the problem is the fed hasn't been making the argument along those lines. if using th

>> miss george has been one of the great hawks on the fomc. she has dissented twice already.o hear that esther george is not amenable to a further rate cut. that is not surprising to anybody. the surprise would be if she was amenable to a rate cut. although it obviously has had some impact upon stock prices, before that comment came out, the dow was down 30. now it is down 70. that is certainly not shocking to me at all. stuart: dennis, thank you very much indeed. tammy bruce still with me here. is the message getting through to voters that this economy is really doing very well as a result of president trump's policies? is it really getting through? >> i give you an example how we can tell. dealing with enthusiasm. that will be determining next year. fox news reporting yesterday, rnc raised another record-setting month there in september, $27.3 million. amid the impeachment push. to give you the example between the republicans and democrats. this means that the gop had 59.2 million cash on hand. democrats were carrying 7.3 million in debt. so you're looking amazing amount of

a little bit of reaction to the fomc, and the idea that we still don't have a new location for apec,ven though president trump has promised that there will be one and that phase one will be signed. cigna has recovered all of its declines come out with a great orderly report today. sold a bit on the news, perhaps some people taking profits. if you want to hear what david cordani had to say, it is on the bloomberg terminal. we spoke to them a little earlier. guy: stocks are down by just a touch. chinese pmi data overnight also adding to downside pressure here in europe. we also have the oil sector lower. ell angs out from sh little earlier on is a factor in the market. -41 on the german ten-year. the hero just beginning to slide over the last hour or so. it was up earlier in the day. we are tracking the dxy level at 97. the market seems to be paying a great deal of attention to that one. . the fed cutting rates for a third street meeting, and fair -- for a third street meeting, and fed chair -- a third straight meeting, and fed chair they will signaling pause. >> basically, we are in a

have let the strong dollar at a global disadvantage he continued his andaign saying the governor the fomcre the worst enemies. he says they don't have a clue. pal is yet to indicate whether he will cut rates again this year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. paul: thanks. the global economy is flashing a clear warning sign with a wave of data showing manufacturing stuck in a slump exports falling and sentiment sliding. garfield reynolds and sarah mcgregor joins us now with more. numbers goten those released, we saw a profound reaction. the yields, dollar, stocks all down. how are we setting up her asia? garfield: asia will be more of the same. in asia come of the u.s. dollar will actually strengthen against currencies. asia is very export driven, very export oriented. so exports go to the u.s., if the u.s. manufacturing sector is doing this then that is bad news for them. it follows on some pretty poor pmi's across asia. also industrial production in south korea. i th

we are getting the fomc minutes on wednesday. what are we watching for in asia?aul: well, at the moment, we have the market open, new zealand that has been trading for a little over one hour. it is currently weaker by 1/10 of 1%. in australia, everyone back to work after the public holiday. futures pointing higher by one third of 1% after we did close recently higher on monday. futures out of seoul looking flat at the moment. payment datag for for the month of august. nikki futures a little weaker, even though the yuan has backed off a little. let's check in with the first word news. from the san index francisco -- china is probably growth isas it -- the likely more volatile than the numbers indicate. the physical activity tracker uses eight indicators including retail sales and exports to estimate how it deviates from the underlying trend. it says china is slowing but not about to collapse. trade talks back on track this week. the white house confirming top chinese negotiator will be in washington for negotiations on thursday. the administration says they will l

a brief respite but hard to say what we are going through here to the fomc. largely expected by the market deliver the third rate cut this year. the big question will be where do they go from here? that is what investors will be looking for. is this going to be the end of this rate cutting cycle or fitted leave the door open for more? that is definitely going to be a big focus for investors after that fed meeting this week. move, with this risk on we have seen the selloff of chinese bonds continue with the 10 year yield jumping the most since april. how far can it go? andreea: hi. that is right. we saw tat acceleration in the selloff in chinese bonds yesterday. it was the biggest jump in yield since six months. a few reasons for that, and one of the main ones is this expectation and this hope of some sort of a trade deal. on a more technical note, the central bank yesterday refrained from using a target tool to inject one-year cash into the system. that effectively took some funds out of the financial system. investors are paring bets of some ingressive inter