>> the fomc is pretty conflicted at the moment. i think jay powell has taken them to more of a dovish tilt for now. let's see what happens this is a midcycle correction. i think he's wrong i think we are in an end cycle in the u.s the curve back in august told you that we'll be living with that inversion the next six to 18 months it may be into next year before the fed realizes that the risks are still very, very high aroun that for now, i think we'll be on pause for the next quarter or two. the minutes are going to show the employment is okay, consumers is great >> thank you for that at the moment joining us live in the next half an hour, we'll cross live to moscow for comments from vladimir putin that will be at 10:45 central european time. coming up, the leaders of the uk's two major parties they faced off against each other. we'll bring you the details of that debate after this break it was sophie's big day. by the way, she's the next mozart. as usual we were behind schedule. but sophie's enthusiasm cannot be dampened. not even

eastern, we get the fomc -- at 2:00 p.m. eastern, we get the fomc minutes as well.uy: stocks in europe a little softer than they are in the united states, which is interesting. the trade story certainly front and center for most people. we are also watching what's happening with the hound -- with the pound. dropped first thing this morning, still north of $1.29. a little bit of a bid for the bond market. we are moving, as you can see, down by two basis points on the german ten-year. prices rising just a touch. we are now joined by viktor hjort, bnp paribas global head of credit strategy and desks analyst. good afternoon. credit markets and equity markets seem to be taking a different view about what is happening when it comes to the trade narrative. credit markets, particularly when it comes to primary issuance, continued for k very optimistic view of the world. why does credit stand out as having a much better view of what is happening? viktor: i think credit is supported by central-bank factors much more so than any other market. right now, said policy is generall

what else is the fomc talking about? it seems like quite a lot. michael: it all rebounds back to the united states. brexit is a unique issue for the united kingdom entirely, but for the united states, sluggish mobile growth in part is because the u.s. economy is slower. china is slowing down area both of those things have been influenced by the third, trade tensions, which is emanating from the united states. so it has an impact on what the fed is thinking, but in terms of what others are doing about it in europe, and asia, to boost growth, the fed can't worry about that at that point. the dollar has been an issue. the fed can't worry about that at this point. it basically looks like the best thing for the u.s. and makes policy according to that. guy: is there expectation that the curve is going to steepen up? the fed is looking down the front end. people are feeling a little more rosy about what is going to happen with the economy. can i assume a steeper curve? michael: that seems to be the assumption in the market. it is just a question of how s

the section that's responsible for preparing the forecast of inflation and wages and prices for the fomc. we've been long time colleagues and i want to assure any lawyers who are here that none of our conversations should be interpreted to constitute my making a request of the federal reserve system or the fomc. i think we're clear. our second panelist is jared bernstein, a senior fellow at the center on budget and policy priorities and he's been very active for many years thinking about the labor market, inequality and macropolicy from his position both in the obama administration and in various think tanks here in d.c. and you can read more about his >> thoughts at his blog on the economy. let me turn the presentation over to them. >> thank you very much. stephanie. it's a pleasure to be here. >> thank you. so in the spirit of making disclaimers i should say the views expressed here, they don't necessarily reflect the views of my colleagues of the board or the research staff at the federal reserve system as a whole. i'll start my presentation by illustrating some of the points in my op

inflation continues to run below the fomc 2% objective. the total price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 1.3% in the 12 months ending in december held down by declines in energy prices. looking ahead, my colleagues and i see a sustained expansion of economic activity, a strong labor market, inflation near our 2% objective as most likely. this favorable baseline partly reflects the policy adjustments we have made to provide support for the economy. however, noteworthy risks to this outlook remain, in particular sluggish growth abroad and trade developments have weighed on the economy and pose ongoing risks. moreover inflation pressures remain muted and indicators of longer term inflation expectations are at the lower end of their historical range. persistent below target inflation could lead to an unwelcomed downward slide in longer term inflation expectations. we will continue to monitor these developments and assess their implications for u.s. economic activity and inflation. we also continue to monitor the risks to t

in january, the fomc data to key decision to continue to implement monetary policy in an ample reserves regime. in such a regime we will continue to control the rates primarily by setting up our advanced rate and not through frequent interventions to actively against the supply of reserves. in the transition to the efficient and effective level of the reserves and the regime, we slowed the gradual decline in may and stopped in july and in response to the funding pressures and the markets that emerged in september, we decided to maintain the level of reserves at or above the level that prevailed in early september. to achieve the level of reserves he announced october that we would purchase treasury bills in the second quarter of next year and would continue temporary open market operations through january. these actions are purely technical measures to support the effective implementation of monetary policy as we continue to learn about the appropriate level of reserves and do not resent a change in the stance of monetary policy. thank you and i look forward to our discussions. thank yo

the fomc expected to cut its benchmark interest rate for a third straight meeting. >> the fed cuts rateduarter-point as expected and drops the phrase "act as appropriate to sustain the expansion" from its statement. instead, the policymakers say, the committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path for the target range for the federal funds rate. taking out the active verb suggests the fed is ready to pause the easing cycle, as long as there is no sign of -- significant deterioration in the economy between now and the december meeting. >> we are not thinking about raising rates right now. there will be times in the future when that will be appropriate. what we are thinking now is that our current stance of policy is appropriate and will remain so as long as the outlook is broadly in keeping with our expectations. >> he was adamant about pausing. that seems to be the consensus in that they want to pause. they want to move any future rate cuts out to 2020. they don't want the market to force their hand

all of this buying happening in the last two days before the fomc. reversing that now, picking up the basis points all day long yesterday. joining us for more analysis on the jobs report and also the china trade 10 bytes is nancy tengler. here in new york, we have our own carl riccadonna. carl, we didn't see much market , but effectively, china confirmed with the u.s. trade representative said a few hours are goingtalks well, and there seems to be an agreement in principle. carl: i think this means we are close to a phase one agreement. i don't think these one is that consequential. certainly, if you are a soybean farmer, this will help to alleviate the problems that have been plaguing that agricultural sector for much of the year. ,n terms of the bigger issues the root of the trade tensions, intellectual transfer, dumping issues all of the core of the trade war are entirely unresolved. maybe phase one happened but i don't think it means much. i don't think the success of phase one tells us anything about what will happen in phase two or beyond that.

wednesday, fomc minutes, and another democratic debate. thursday, inflation and pmi data.nt, perhaps the main christine lagarde making a policy speech. u.s. and eurozone preliminary pmi for the month of november. still with me are mike schumacher, matt hornbach, and kathy jones. let's talk about europe. there is a belief on the side of the atlantic that christine lagarde can do something mario draghi cannot, and get governments in europe, specifically germany, to spend. kathy, the good news this week is germany of voting a recession. the bad news, the government seems to be satisfied with 0.1% gdp growth, and no signs of that will lead to fiscal loosening. kathy: no sign that they are inclined to worry about their current account surplus. from the public statements at least it doesn't look like they are inclined to make much change in the budget. things would have to get worse before they would take action on the fiscal side. mike: why would they change? i have not heard any signal and in germany that is likely to change its tack. talking about hitting the nail target. i t

charles evans gave his first public comments since the fomc delivered a third consecutive cut. >> i am even sure what neutral is anymore. i think it may have moved down. we need to make an adjustment. i would say moving from leaning toward a restrictive stance as a path or leaning toward an accommodative stance. that is pre-much what we have engineered with a third rate cut. now, in my own mind, i am searching for something that was definitely accommodative, not hugely, but definitely on the accommodative side of neutral. on a long-run basis, my assessment of neutral is 2.75%. when westill below that paused. i think we are definitely accommodative but i am not entirely sure that the short run neutral funds rate is not a lot closer to two. nejra: that was chicago fed president charles evans speaking to bloomberg. a new york fed official says monetary policy has its limits, calling on stepping in for fiscal stimulus. >> going further negative will quite likely not have a positive output or inflation. for this reason, fiscal policy has to take over. it should not be simply an extension fo

policy is not on a preset course the fomc is committed to ensuring that its policy framework remains well positioned to meet its statutory goals. we believe our existing framework has served us well nonetheless, the current low interest rate environment may limit the ability of monetary policy to support the economy. we are currently conducting a public review of our strategy, tools and communications with the u.s. economy operating close to maximum employment and price stability, now is an especially opportune time to conduct such a review. through our fed listens events, we've heard a diverse range of perspectives not only from academic experts but representatives of consumer, labor, business, community and other groups we will draw on these insights as we assess how best to achieve and maintain maximum employment and price stability. we'll continue to report on our discussions in the minutes of our meetings and share our conclusions when we finish the review, likely around the middle of next year in a downturn, it would also be important for fiscal policy to support the economy. h

in january the fomc made the key decision to continue to -- in an ample regime. we'll continue to control the federal funds rate by setting administered rates and not through frequent interventions. in the transition to the efficient and effective level of reserves, we slowed the gradual decline in our balance sheet in may and stopped it in july. we decided to maintain a level of reserves at or above the level that prevailed in early september. to achieve this level we announced in mid october that we would purchase treasury bills at least into the second quarter of next year and would continue temporary open market operations through january. these are purely technical measures to support the effective implement tax of monetary policy as we continue to learn. they do not represent a change in the stance of monetary policy. thank you. i will look forward to our decisions. >> thank you very much for your statement. we will begin question-and-answer session. you can submit written answeques to be answered later. any members who with ish to submit questions may do s

negative rates have been rejected by the fomc.do not think it is an attractive policy tool for the u.s. the number two person at the european central bank also telling bloomberg that the ecb can keep buying bonds without hitting any limits. what is the message here? kathleen: the message is inflation slows, the economy in europe is still weak, they are going to keep going. >> i think it is not going to reach the limits. kathleen: asset purchase program is what he is referring to. interesting because this came out after the financial review warned of excessive risk-taking by some investment funds and insurers in some real estate markets. he said what they need now is that macro potential toolkit for the asset management industry similar to what they already have to banks. shery: thank you. the for the democratic debate happens later in atlanta where chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli joins us from capitol hill. we know 10 candidates are taking the stage. who are we watching? not at capitol hill, i'm here in atlanta, the s

most dovishwas the part of the fomc event. we did not get news on the balance sheet.hey performed on the repo market? sonia: the repo market is a thorn for them. they are trying to find ways to ease it over market operations. they are trying to expand reserves again. this also has to do with regulation and with the behavior of the large u.s. banks. it is difficult for the fed to influence that directly in the way that it would like. i think that the end of the day, we might end up looking at easing regulations even if it is not to the extent they would like it to. amanda: do we need to start talking about the effect of impeachment on the markets? a change of leadership potentially, theoretically, what that might do across the whole economy? biga: i think there is a difference between impeachment and removing the president. the chances of impeachment are potentially higher than the chances of a president actually stepping down. it is really only if the president's chances of stepping down or increased that the market is pricing that in. shery: you mentioned the gdp num

it also showed up in the fomc minutes.fy are not thinking controlling the longer end of the curve. if they go to yield curve control than they are thinking of controlling the shorter end of the curve. if and when the fed cuts down to zero and by the way, i don't think the fed wants to go negative. they could adopt a target for the two-year rate. thatot so sure whether would actually be necessary because i think an environment ,here the fed cuts to zero there's a good chance that u.s. treasury yields actually go negative. we already have a negative term premium in yields and so if the zero, thes down at negative yields elsewhere in the world are likely to drag treasury yields even lower. they may not even need that yield curve control they are talking about now. romaine: will come back to you in a minute. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is bloomberg markets. i'm taylor riggs. she bp revised higher to 2.1%. for more on how that is impacting municipals i'm joined by a fixed income portfolio manager at wells fargo asset managemen

notave had a fomc meeting, expected to cut. we will have a u.k. election and potentially a government shutdown or extension. that will be dicey. this is happening in the middle of december. i would not go home yet for the year. caroline: we managed to push higher on the s&p 500. we had a perspective where we were yesterday. >> i learned in the other day, it is called cucumbers. that is what they call silly season. it's just a random fact i wanted to get out there. that's a fact. >> part of the cucumber season as you have s&p 500 making a new record high. if it closes up two points after the record settles, that's a new highs. caroline: flat for the russell 2000. let's dive deeper with our markets reporters. abigail, what are you watching >>, with the small moves for stocks, it would make sense to look to other clues. investors look to the volatility index to see whether it is on the rise. whether these record highs can be sustained. another volatility index is on the rise. the index in white. some of them call it a panic index. year,e in july of l

we will have to see if that theme continues, but certainly it seems like the market is waiting for fomcp impeachment, so let's talk about it. at the moment, the market seems to be putting impeachment to one side, some plea for the reason that they expect impeachment, but no conviction. if there was impeachment and conviction in the senate come would that be good or would that be bad for risk assets? volatile,uld be that's for sure. would bem, i think it bad. depending on how the narrative evolves within the power structure in washington, i think that will be the longer-term impact. when you look at short aspects of it, i believe that certainly, it would be a negative if that narrative started to pick up steam. even though the impeachment in and of itself might not be impacting the market, think china is certainly taking a bit of a back set. as they wait to see how this unfolds. it is having an impact, does not may be the impact that many marketers bins initially thought it was going to have. market isade, the quite sanguine today. is there still an assumption that phase i gets done by d

said yesterday you would probably have dissented and voted against interest rate cuts at the last fomcrict is get a sense of the trajectory of the economy, and how much risks are being taken on by businesses and consumers. in my canvassing of the district and hearing from directors, we just were not hearing that in a material way. we had already done a fair amount of accommodation, we moved twice already, and it was my view we should really just let that go and see how it plays out. and if we see there is more need for accommodation, we could act. we have already done a lot and i was willing to see how that plays in the economy. >> are you concerned rates are too low, that there is an issue of where rates are with inflation? what would be the problem? >> first of all, we are slightly accommodative. and that is fine. i don't think our position now is likely to spark the economy into an overheated mode, where we might expect weakening in response to that. i worry a lot about the policy space that we have. when you think about a response to a recession, we don't have that much space. i wa

we saw him do it in the q&a session after an fomc meeting, read once again without a doubt they will watch the economy and that they will be data dependent and they reminded everyone is not on a preset policy. to me that was music to wall street's ears? >> i think what is music to wall street's ears, they just lowered rates three times. i wish i was doing the questioning of the gentleman because he is now adding more liquidity to the system than ben bernanke did when we had 9% unemployment and we were in financial meltdown and markets love that. three weeks ago i saw this. that is when i said i felt we'll have another leg up because of it. looks like away we go notwithstanding something extraneous. markets love easier money and you're getting it here. you're definitely getting it around the globe as negative rates get even more negative. europe who swore they would never print money again, started up a new one also. away we go. we'll see how far the market takes us. charles: dan, what are your thoughts what jay powell said today? >> i don't think we got much meaningful from powell. i

did we get any further insight into how the fomc is thinking? alex: not really.one is telling that line that they are going to be patient, they are going to look at the data. brent is still an issue. trade is still an issue. the president hasn't been as hawkish or punitive when it comes to trade, so the rhetoric has been dialed back a bit, but these are still issues out there, and they can still turn very quickly. i think the fed is cautious and aware of that, and i think in the short run, thinking about liquidity and the repo market, how they are going to manage year end because that is coming up on us quickly. vonnie: and of course, next week is the deadline for the president to decide on euro tariffs. europe has been saying there aren't going to be any on the part of the u.s. anyway. guy: absolutely. our thanks to paul christopher, wells fargo investment institute head of global market strategy, and alex harris, bloomberg market and rates reporter. thest want to highlight news on this case running in europe for three years. it is italian related. we're just ge

charles: what is not a non-event what happened since the fomc seems like there is another bifurcation. new york fed chairman president john williams bringing up two things. he talked about the global factors. why he is still worried to your point, worried about the economy. then he also talked, we have the by the way the quote right there on the screen, you know, that these global factors and others causing economy to slow more than expected. to slow more than trend growing on on going basis that could be argument for somewhat more accommodation. we may not be done with rate cuts. >> i think that is something we should bear in mind. there was a lot of celebration that germany did not technically go into recession. we've seen data come out since then, going it will have a flat line type of growth. we're not going to see the boomerang back up we would like to see. the oecd has leading indicators for global growth. hit a 10-year low. down for 20 month running. williams is justified saying, at some point, not talking about december 11th, but at some point 2020 all together rational market

that featured a jobs report and fomc meeting. >> we have ongoing growth in the economy. inflation near our objective. so the economy is in a very good place. we characterize growth as moderate right now. the global economy has been slowing and that is a factor. but the u.s. economy is very resilient, and these are good numbers. both the gdp number in the labor and the labor market numbers have been on the upside. that is a good thing. >> those numbers, those gdp numbers, are they politically acceptable to this nation? it is great for economists like you to talk about 1.9% as a center tendency, but is that politically acceptable? i am not going to get into the politics. our job at the fed, we have a dual mandate. maximum employment price stability. we have made some adjustments in our policy rate. we think they are and will continue to give significant support to the economy. and we have a favorable outlook. for the economy. jonathan: let's talk about the outlook and the balance of risks. how would you describe the balance of risk around that outlook? >> i would say for m

and the fomc room is where we go to meet.threshold, there's a certain reverence. and politics literally never come up ever. >> so you guys don't care what the -- >> we don't talk about it. >> you don't talk about it? >> we never talk about it. >> to anyone watching saying, i wonder if the fed kept cutting rates because the president kept telling them to. >> the answer is no. >> the president saying the fed is putting the u.s. economy at a competitive disadvantage? >> our work is to calibrate monetary policy so that we can achieve the dual mandate goals. it's a narrow mandate, and we have one instrument and two goals, price stability and full employment. we take that seriously. >> this is the longest economic expansion in history. >> which is terrific. look how many have been lifted up from it. >> you think it's got a lot more muscle? >> i think we have more muscle, more room to run. there are more people we can bring from the sidelines into the labor market. they can get into jobs and get skills in training and experience. >>

the fomc meeting minutes are released today.will include more details around the fed decision to cut rates in october. is retail in trouble? after mixed earnings, we get more of a readout from lowe's and target. candidatesdemocratic meet in atlanta for the fifth primary debate. the european commission will release a formal opinion on budgets of the eu member states. manus: part of the reason why they have chipped in is that we are hosting the new economy forum in beijing. we get some cracking guests over the next 40 at hours. -- 48 hours. plus, david solomon, the ceo and chairman of goldman sachs, will join us. that is tomorrow. this is bloomberg. ♪ nejra: i'm they rich a edge in london. -- chehiche encz it in london. manus: i'm manus cranny. rosalind: alibaba is saying it's mega stock offering will come at a discount. about $176y to price hong kong dollars apiece. the share sale marks one of the largest sales of the year and the biggest of hong kong since 2010. westpac has been accused of breaching money laundering laws more th

charles evans spoke to bloomberg in new york, his first public comments since the fomc delivered itshird consecutive cut. >> i'm not even sure what neutral is anymore. i think it may move down in the short term basis and we need to make an adjustment so that policy would be -- and i would say moving from leaning toward a restrictive stance to leaning toward an accommodative stance and that is what i think we have engineered with our third rate cut at our last meeting. now, in my own mind, i was searching for something that was definitely accommodative, not hugely accommodative, but definitely in the accommodative side of neutral. i think the neutral rate probably moved to. in a long-term basis, my assessment of neutral is 2.75%, and we were still below that when we paused. i think we were definitely accommodative. i'm not sure the neutral funds end up closer to numeral 2%. official heropean called for governments to step >> monetaryical policy seems to have reached an end. it would likely not have a positive impact on inflation. for this reason, fiscal policy has to take over. fiscal

look at the food everyone worries about the a hawkish or dovish cut it seems the love is leading the fomc and stay that is way once market participants get it it's off to the races for the market. >> match zbrup reporting the earnings the low after hours. and the chairman of boeing sitting down with cnbc we'll tell what you he said that gave the stock a lift today neve from times square in w york city, much more "fast money" right after this. ♪ ♪ i've been a caregiver for 20 years. no two patients are the same. predicting the next step for them can be challenging. today we're using the ibm cloud to run new analytics tools that help us better predict and plan a patient's recovery. ♪ ♪ ultimately, it's helping thousands of patients return home. and who doesn't love going home. hey. ♪hey. you must be steven's phone. now you can take control of your home wifi and get a notification the instant someone new joins your network... only with xfinity xfi. download the xfi app today. >>> well back to "fast money." we have the earnings alert on match group. the stock down 15% in the after hours sessi

officialseral reserve with a favorable outlook of the economy this week as investors await fomc minuteshairman powell was even more upbeat in the u.s. economy on his second day of testimony before congress, calling the usa reformer and seeing few threats that could derail growth. but what about the slowdown in the rest of the world? economics editor kathleen hays joins us. kathleen, fed officials seem confident they don't need more rate cuts. kathleen: absolutely, and it is understandable. jay powell, day two of his testimony to congress, answering all kinds of questions about the budget end economy and about so many aspects of what the fed is doing and looking at. but bottom line, it is clear that with jobs growing, with the consumer still spending, that the fed figures we have done three rate cuts, it is time to sit back and watch. here's what jay powell said. >> the u.s. economy is the star economy these days. we are growing at 2%, or in that range. so more than any of the other advanced economies are growing, and there is no reason to think that that can't continue. there is no reas

weaknesshe dollar coming off of the fomc last week i think would be the main story of support for themerging helps in bothat the emerging-market currency market as well as the bonds. this relief of funding pressure gives the emerging-market a lot the room to rally emerging-market countries. ony will have less pressure their funding channels for the dollar as well as not having to worry about reserves depleting. be the this is going to main story of support for us and that includes for asian credit markets as well. shery: we have seen relatively low default rates in china, which is really interesting. does that accurately portrayed a c.'s creditchina in profile? monica: our default rates are around 2%, and yes, it's lower than that of what is expected in the u.s. as well as --- i would make two observations on the default rates year to date. it startled the market last month that there was a china soe that defaulted and this was china's largest state owned potash producer. granted it was in a weaker province that was heavily debt laden. it did flag for investors that they needed a lot

typically what happens, a lot of people waiting to get that fomc meeting and the treasury refunding announcementy before they can come in so i think that might have contributed to the rally, but i think it is also skittish about data and trade. subadra: i think that makes -- megan: i think that makes sense. given there was so much optimism all of a sudden baked in on trade, wrongly, clearly, i think that should be a lesson, but i'm not sure that the markets have learned it. alix: just to pivot to the opening of the show, fiscal stimulus. everybody wants it. does it actually happen? the director of the wto said that when it comes to interest rates, they are lower for a long time. the global economy is in low growth and historically low rates. in the event of a new recession, governments have limited auditory and fiscal firepower to stop demand. the fallout of a serious downturn could get ugly. i thought was interesting here, even if you have fiscal come of that is not the huge bazooka you think. constance, where you stand on it? constance: we've had huge fiscal stimulus over the course of the tru

it would be good if the fomc clarified that a little bit more.fying what we mean by symmetry would be important. to me, it means we should average 2% over some reasonable time. we should probably spend half of our time above 2%. we spent our entire time below 2% since we call this out. being willing to go above 2% is something i think conservative central bankers have a lot of trouble with. i think the ecb has directly has had trouble with that. . if youlimit yourself, say our objective is to percent but really act as if it is a ceiling, that reduces the monetary policy space you have when you need to provide more competition during a downturn. it is why i think it is important to achieve our 2% symmetric objective. here.he words come out i have mild comfort with 2% inflation. perseverance is crucial. a powerful, full throated commitment to this asymmetry you speak of, it all speaks of outcome based monetary policy. let's dive into this. ago, we really need to pop inflation. we need an aggressive approach here. you follow on as a public official

you said you would probably dissent and vote against and interest rate cut at the last fomc meeting.e things we try to do in the six district is what is the economy and how much are the risks to being taken on by businesses and consumers? wering from our directors, were not hearing that and a material way. we had already done a fair amount of combination, we had moved twice. it was my view we should let that go and wait and see how it plays out. then if we see there is more need for accommodation, we could act at that point. we had already done a lot and i was willing to let and see how that plays with the economy. were you concerned rates are too low? is there a concern with where rates are? what would be the problem? raphael: we are slightly accommodative. that is fine. i do not think our position is likely to spark the economy to get into an overheated mode where we might expect there to be some weakening in response to that. i worry about the policy space , 1.75, that is not a lot 1.75, that is not a lot of space, when you think historically what the responses to recession, we do

economy was going to be meeting, but more recently, he is saying he is comfortable with where the fomcf the rate cut. saying the committee should pledge no tightening until the inflation target is reached. we believe that there for now. bloomberg's subscribers can go and wash on the terminal. r this weeko -- late as well as some of the events you might have missed earlier on. shery: markets open in tokyo at the top of the hour. let's turn to sophie with what to watch. sophie: looking like a subdued start in tokyo and seoul. holding steady at 109 and futures are holding lower, which comes after a sharp jump on tuesday. softbank in the spotlight with the groups earnings nightly defeat feature write-downs for wework and uber. note.ther stocks of this after we saw the telco increase its payout and a stock split. keeping an eye on shares which may come under pressure after the profit forecast. keeping an eye on takeda effort agreed to sell some assets. watching fujifilm as the company sees improved earnings on a deal to buy 25% of xerox after a merger attempt fell through. this is bloomberg

when he saw the minutes from the fomc, clearly they are on hold for some time.hear from president lagarde tomorrow and they are not going to be doing anything anytime soon. we are lower for longer, but there are a huge range of opportunities in this environment. , they look at the risks also produce opportunities. opportunities even on the curve in the u.s.. we like the front end of the treasury curve. decent liquidity, decent risk returns, and a hedge. in the u.k., likewise when you look at brexit and politics, we like a steep -- when you look at the different asset classes, it is really being nimble in finding these areas for investors. tom: i love the phrase steve short used the other day. outaid there is hopium there. that headlines on trade will materialize and lead to growth. explain how political process leads to growth. we need business investment, a resilient consumer. how do we get from these headlines to economic growth next year? corem: it is the political that the global economy can recovery next year. when you have political uncertainty that weighs

i worked for the philadelphia fed and i watched people on the fomc disagree about everything. for independence of the fed, and that is right because it is really a critical feature of the institution that it operates independently from politics. that is simply because the time horizon is different. this has happened before. the president would like to have lower rates to help the economy, but longer-term is what the fed needs to think about. what doesractice, that mean when you have a federal reserve setting rates indirectly in response to tensions with respect to trade, which is politically driven? luke: this is where things get difficult, but the fed's job is to respond to what is going on in the economy, so if there is a political issue that will end up affecting the economy, they need to respond to that. economy is going, if yields dive, they will respond to that. lisa: just to push back a little bit, because you are seeing jay powell saying a lot of what we do depends on trade, so it is not necessarily they are waiting for the economic fallout, they are waiting for what t

>> well, i don't think people were really contemplating at the fomc meeting in september that the fedo the tune of $60 billion a month with this new issue of wanting to have more reserves. we've heard before about an apple reserves environment but i now get the sense that $1.5 trillion which is 7 to 8 times more than is required -- there's only 200 billion of required reserves -- that has somehow become a mandatory level i think that there's, particularly for the cp banks, systemically important financial institutions, the regulatory pressures are causing them to say we just better comply and always maintain our intra day liquidity coverage ratios to where i worry that this whole relationship between the bank being pressured to have such high excess reserves in this relationship with the federal reserve is turning them away from traditional productive financial intermediation and into utilities of the federal government i think people will find there are other institutions willing to make loans because banks are so busy hiring compliance officers than hiring more loan officers >> now,