coming up new faces for the fomc.nd nouveau voters will influence policy for 2020. -- how new voters will influence policy for 2020. this is bloomberg. ♪ romaine: even though the expectation is that the fed will keep rates steady next year, the incoming voting members could still impact policy. peter, we are talking about loretta, patrick, kaplan, and neil. what will these people bring to the table? kashkari is the dove. he has been saying that monetary policy needs to be easier to keep the economy growing. he is not worried about inflation, he is worried about growth. the unemployment rate could go lower. that is going to be a strong message. it is important direct that he has been on tv, been on bloomberg, speaking at fomc meetings. the difference now is he has a vote. there is a dove going off of the fomc, tim bullard from st. louis. vonnie: what happens? to -- there are still plenty of people out there suffering. do they still have a case? peter: i think they do. it is hard for people to wrap their minds around th

then the fomc to digest from yesterday as well. it all has the s&p 500 at 3166, up another 0.8% on this thursday session. the dollar index is a little bit stronger. it had been weaker going into yesterday's fomc, and that again, this morning's activities changing a lot. 1.8 5%.ear yield up to some selling in u.s. treasuries. not exhausted the same situation in europe. you will talk about that any moment. i did want to point to the , leadingd gaming index the sb the hundred with the likes of wynn. we will bring you more on that any moment as well. guy: it is a big deal, the words of the president, talking about this deal, sending stocks higher. stoxx 600 up by about 0.5%. yields really turning around on this. you see the selloff in the bond market. we are now -.9, -30 on the german ten-year. .our basis points the pound a softer versus the u.s. dollar. vonnie: let's get into more detail on trade. it is literally the latest event impacting markets. a tweet a few mums ago from the president saying this. "getting very close to a big dea

cpi and 10 fomc rate decision. on wednesday, it is the swiss bank making their own decisions.is heading for its general election. the consumer back in focus with u.s. retail sales. if i know run of thoughts with p krishna.shon, and the rest of the world outperforms the united states of america. where do stand on that debate? the world rest of models along. we struggle to see where the rest of the world gets the -- to the extent that deceleration will slow down -- it has big applications for the dollar. if you get this big convergence in global growth, how much can the dollar weekend? you need the fed to capitulate. reassessment.rial only then will the daughter -- the dollar meaningfully -- gershon: you cannot generalize. response, you look at europe and how much ammunition is left. china has a lot more they could do should weakness emerge. krishna: for the overseas economies, basically the dollar has to weekend. or theoverseas reacceleration overseas has to be far more of substantial than it is in the u.s.. there is a case to be made. it is unclear whether that is the case. ex

you've made it clear you are one of the 13 fomc members. you must be one of the dots that sees no rate cuts, no rate hikes unless something happens in 2020. what has to happen? robert: there has to be a material change in the outlook, either for better or worse. i've already got baked into my outlook, we are going to have weak manufacturing next year, sluggish growth, pretty sluggish business investment, but with a strong consumer. there would have to be some material change from that outlook. i think it is fairly balanced at the moment. will get some stabilization in trade. i think the moves the fed has made have also been helpful. i would say the risks are balanced. kathleen: if you see the risks tilting toward the upside and the possible need for a rate hike, would that be hard to do in an election year? would you consider that ill-advised, something the fed will try to avoid? robert: it will not be a factor as usual.king, i'm going to divorce political considerations. i think we will try to make the best decision we can in light of the

as seen from fomc participants' most recent projections, the median expectation for real gdp growth slows slightly over the next few years but remains near 2%. the unemployment rate has been near half-century lows for well more than a year, and the pace of job gains remains solid. participation in the labor force by people in their prime working years, ages 25 through 54, has been increasing. and wages have been rising, particularly for lower-paying jobs. people who live and work in low-and middle-income communities tell us that many who have struggled to find work are now finding new opportunities. employment gains have been broad-based across all racial and ethnic groups and all levels of education. these developments underscore for us the importance of sustaining the expansion so that the strong job market reaches more of those left behind. we expect the job market to remain strong. the median of participants' projections for the unemployment rate remains below 4% over the next several years. inflation continues to run below our symmetric 2 percent objective. over the 12 months through

cpi and an fomc rate decision.day, the ecb and the swiss national bank making their own decisions. and the u.k. heading for its general election. friday, the consumer back in focus with u.s. retail sales. final round of thoughts with priya misra, krishna memani, gershon distenfeld. within the space of 24 hours, the federal reserve and the ecb, and a big consensus forming going into 2020, the rest of the world outperforms the u.s. where do you stand on that debate? priya: the rest of the world probably muddles along. we think the u.s. underperforms. we struggle to see, where is the growth engine for the rest of the world? the extent of this deceleration will slow down, so you can flatline. this has big implications for the dollar. if you get this convergence in global growth -- we have certainly seen it in global yields -- but how much can the dollar weaken? you need the fed to capitulate. the fed needs to say this is a material assessment and we need to start cutting. only then will the dollar start to fall. gersho

investors await the fomc decision in just a few minutes. plus a big week for trade negotiations while the u.s. mexico canada agreement could live the cloud over north american trade relations. uncertainty over trade and tariffs are still front and that -- front and center for investors. ken griffin, billionaire, has a lucrative money machine, more so than you might think. check: let's get a quick on the major averages here at and,of the federal reserve perhaps, more importantly, a sense of where it might be headed. saudi aramco trading for the first time today, up 10% on the day. broadise you are seeing markets trading sideways ahead of the action. a couple of stocks getting attention, including home depot down on the forecast. boeing trading on news that the planes might be grounded longer than some had hoped. loomingts are still over the markets and we have a wait and see approach for most of them. otherwise, sideways. a quick check on the pound, here is one that could well be influenced by events, but we have seen a continued rise in the

the question, what is the fomc itself signaling?hink most people think that probably next year, the median forecast of the fomc will be for rates to remain where they are, particularly in the election year. after that, looking for some gradual increases. romaine: a year ago, we were talking about the fed raising rates. we got three rate cuts despite the fact that we were never really headed for a recession. if we had not gotten those three rate cuts, do you think we would now be talking today about a recession as almost a certain date? -- almost a certainty? paul: that is a question about the potency of monetary policy. perhaps headwinds for growth. believe points, i don't that is the difference between butssion and plain sailing, continuing to monitor, recalibrate policy positions, make sure it is achieving its objectives. in retrospect, history will probably look back. we did have the president in 2018 saying the fed is going too far. as an economist myself, i did not think they needed to hike that much. might be a bitter pill to

rate tick down again back to 3.5%, next year, now finally, talk about that -- all 17 members of the fomc vetted to keep rates unchanged, that means this was a straight line, i called it last time it was straight line december, of 2015 back to you. >> thank you so much for that, here to discuss former dallas fed advisory, danielle, expect a planning chief market strategist jeff point bridge capital paul lambert, let's get into what we heard no change he in terms of the expectation, rates unchanged this is interesting, nothing coming down the pike in 2020. >> i think they want to say they have taken mid cycle adjournment deployed it going to be able they feedbackiexpect down next year no uncertainty terms not going anywhere 12 months we are going into a holding pattern this is the goldilocks scenario powell is looking for especially because he expects unemployment rate to take up a tiny bit tick back down he is expecting this economic expansion to continue. >> going to ask you watching the market dow down 20 points as fed says it is goings to be monitoring globe developments, we've got tar

paul: 4 fomc members potentially seeing a rate increase on the market.oes that mean maybe they think inflation will have a pulse in 2020? >> that's a good point. they think unemployment is so low, we are seeing wages start to rise. gradually inflation is going to follow along, and maybe it will. it's just that will be so surprising if it does. but i think on the other of that coin, you have people like neel kashkari, president of the minneapolis fed, who is going to become a voter in 2020. he certainly has been one to say he does not want to hike rates and still -- until he sees evidence it will not hurt unemployment. esther george, a well-known hawk, president of the kansas city fed, maybe she is looking for the rate hikes, but again, fed officials are due to independent. i think it's going to take a stronger economy, more consumer spending, or inflation starting to show some life it has not shown in a long time. shery: kathleen, thank you. on the back of that fomc decision, we saw bonds rising, the dollar falling with the fed sending that steady as she

i probably would have -- what is great about the fomc, we have a different take on this. looking at what potential growth does, i will be looking at what the trends are in the labor market, and yes, in addition, i will be looking at target. are versus our i will be looking at a range of factors and i will be also looking at financial stability issues in weighing whether some action is appropriate. i will be looking at that. david: that was dallas fed president robert kaplan speaking earlier with bloomberg's kathleen hays. coming up, we continue on bloomberg radio. we will have more with tom kehoe , an advisor to the u.s. to permit of agriculture. also joining us, we will talk about impeachment. this is "balance of power." ♪ what are you doing back there, junior? since we're obviously lost, i'm rescheduling my xfinity customer service appointment. ah, relax. i got this. which gps are you using anyway? a little something called instinct. been using it for years. yeah, that's what i'm afraid of. he knows exactly where we're going. my whole body is a compass. oh boy... the my

vonnie: the fomc meeting has begun in washington, d.c. you mentioned the focus will probably move to the physical in europe. certain countries will probably be on board. what is your base case for what kind of fiscal relief europe might get into 2020? christian: of course, we are talking about fiscal stimulus globally, but in europe, it is harder than most, as you just alluded to. some countries are on board with that, some aren't. it will really be up to christine lagarde to try and provide some sort of consensus. of course, she has a background. she was the french finance minister, and has spent many years at the imf essentially trying to advise countries what to do on the fiscal front. if anyone can do it, it is lagarde. what it is a very difficult task at hand, and i don't think the ecb is going to be able to completely sit on the sidelines. vonnie: is the market awaiting christine lagarde with an open mind, or is there something that could disappoint the market this week? think if she didn't maintain the dovish stance we heard under

busy: on the cusp of a week, fomc to the looming u.s.ariff deadline, how investors are positioning. >> repo blowup is not over. a morning that the funding issue in september was not just a hiccup, and says europe could be next. >> tv ads on the decline, global tv advertising sales fell almost 4%, the steepest drop since the depths of the economic recession in 2009. let's start with a quick check of the currency markets as we got this media reports that there was an agreement reached between the white house and the democrats on that trade deal. the house could vote on it on december 18, according to media reports. not a lot of reaction. so far, this was pretty much anticipated eared we had seen speaker nancy pelosi reviewing changes to the agreement that was reached with the mexican counterparts. they put it on paper over the past week. but today we are expecting lighthizer and his mexican counsel -- counterpart to meet in washington again. meantime, strength for both the cad and mexican peso. the mexican peso rising against the u.s. doll

he is a voting member of the fomc for the year 2020 coming up in just two days. the central banks are facing a moment of calm and liberty economics does not see the next downturn coming in -- and bloomberg economics does not see the next downturn coming. bloomberg expects cuts in markets and more reliance on fiscal policy. ratecould the longer environment leave central banks without the answers? discuss, analyst david powell. morning doess expect a cut from the fed in 2020, as well as the ecb. do you agree? david: that is not in our forecast. we look for the ecb to remain on hold in 2020. we also look for the fed to be on hold after three cuts we saw last year. withheme last year, central banks to adjust the economy, but those trade tensions will be dialed down a little bit. that has to be one of the dominant themes for 2020. what were they in 2019 that you expect to carry through? david: really, it will be a focus on how this conflict between the u.s. and china carries out. the trade war spilling over to europe. donald trump had threatened european automakers, w

cpi and an fomc rate decision.rsday, the ecb and the swiss national bank making their own decisions. and the u.k. heading for its general election. friday, the consumer back in focus with u.s. retail sales. final round of thoughts with priya misra, krishna memani, gershon distenfeld. within the space of 24 hours, the federal reserve and the ecb, and a big consensus forming going into 2020, the rest of the world outperforms the u.s. where do you stand on that debate? priya: the rest of the world probably muddles along. we think the u.s. underperforms. we struggle to see, where is the growth engine for the rest of the world? the extent of this deceleration will slow down, so you can flatline. this has big implications for the dollar. if you get this convergence in global growth -- we have certainly seen it in global yields -- but how much can the dollar weaken? you need the fed to capitulate. the fed needs to say this is a material reassessment and we need to start cutting. only then will the dollar start to fall. ge

when it comes to cutting rates, i don't think we know much about this fomc. to know more about the dots. there may be a dichotomy between the dots and what the market expects. with manufacturing, with the job markets, and the last question will be on repo. which is also something where creating some stress in the markets. i don't think we know more about the direction and amplitude of those rate cuts for the fed. the market is pricing currently 25% rate cuts by march. let us see. it is going to be extended anyway. pushedthe market has cuts into the long grass after this year. have a look at this. it's one of the >> this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." >> less travel south to have a dobby. the u.k. is actually gearing up to vote on december 12. tories are currently in the polls. tough 24nson has had a hours after he refused to look at a picture of a sick child in the hospital in leads. can i get your perspective, the markets are primed for a tory victory. they are going for a tory victory, but i want to get a sense from you. when you look at currency markets

the fomc, the fed, is holding its final two day meeting of 2019.vember jobs report will likely help bolster fed officials confidence in their decision to curtail rate cuts in december. erik nielsen, chief economist at unicredit group is still with us. you have said in the past that you think the u.s. is going to go into a recession next year. you think the fed needs to cut a lot more. is that right? erik: yes, that's right. they are done for this year. peters outtic demand in 2020 starting with fiscal stimulus. the job market looks strong right now but the openings are on a downward trend. we think it is a normal end cycle story that we will hit sometime in the second half of next year. we think the fed will end up cutting by 100 basis points next year. anna: that is quite aggressive, to go from being on hold all the way through the first half of the year to cutting by 100. they are waiting for something material to happen to enable a material reassessment. what will create that material reassessment? do you think they will run out of space to crea

here in a fox business exclusive, the number two man at the federal reserve, fomc vice chairman richard clarida. thank you for being here. through your lens at the federal reserve, how does this phase one trade deal look to you? >> well, it's too soon. what i would say is any reduction of uncertainty is a good thing. i think uncertainty about trade policy has been a factor in the economy and so any resolution of that uncertainty, assuming it's a good deal, is obviously a positive for the economic outlook. liz: powell, as we had mentioned, the chairman of the federal reserve, had said that it was not usmca or any other trade tensions that mattered to the markets and to the economy, everybody was watching this trade deal with china. now the president is saying that it will add markedly, even just this phase one deal, to gross domestic product, meaning growth here in the united states. could you say that phase one from what you can see here will add to gdp? >> well again, it's too soon to tell and i don't know what the details are. liz: is that part of the problem? that we don't know the a

the fomc kept interest rates on hold forecasting no change through next year's presidential election.man jay powell saying current policy will remain appropriate unless the alec changes. another rate cut is looming in turkey. president erdogan saying interest rates will be moving to single digits in 2020. most economists disagree with the view that lower borrowing costs brings down inflation but everyone in of bloomberg survey sees the march to lower policy continuing. brazil has lowered its benchmark point. a half percentage a record low for .5%. many analysts also expect policymakers to signal an end to the easing cycle at the central bank left the door open for additional cuts. election in less than a year. the country's parliament had until midnight to find a lawmaker to form a governing coalition but the deadline passed with the stalemate intact. the vote is set to take place on march 2. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you very much, i

labor market and does support thefe s presumed position notify to the sidelin looking atext we can's fomcome of theport was a one off return of gm workers but we saw widespr gains across health care business services and even manufacturingn neral. but i do think that there is still room for caution here. when we take a longer term this morning's report while positive doesn't dismiss some of e earlier anemic trends we saw in hiring for the better part of the past while this morning'seport certainly was enough to support a run up in the equity markets, there is still some concern that marketabout theor going forward into the new year. >> which sort of leads me to my question, i'm curio to know your answer to the point that ylan mui made at the end of the package how much longer in tight labor market can last. e and whands it? does it peter out? or what happens do you think. businesses are still very that hesitant to take on a verybu level of long higher wage employees. we a seeing a heavy reliance on part time and gig employment. this is a theme for some time also a renewed reliance o artif

jonathan: fomc, unchanged for the year, rate cut, rate hike? george: cut. kathy: unchanged.unchanged. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us. thank you to you at home. i will see you in the new year. enjoy the holidays. this was bloomberg "real yield." this is bloomberg tv. ♪ [ dramatic music ] this holiday... ahhhhh!!! -ahhhhh!!! a distant friend returns... elliott. you came back! and while lots of things have changed... wooooah! -woah! it's called the internet. some things haven't. get ready for a reunion 3 million light years in the making. woohoo! -yeah! manus: watching the best of bloomberg daybreak middle east. t again in lebanon. qatar's foreign minister tells bloomberg that his nation has held discussions with saudi rifts.about mending in saudi arabia's biggest bank has scrapped plans to reconcile with its rival.

jonathan: fomc, unchanged for the year, rate cut, rate hike? george: cut. kathy: unchanged.: unchanged. jonathan: great to catch up with you. thank you very much for joining us. thank you to you at home. from new york, that does it for us. i will see you in the new year. enjoy the holidays. this was bloomberg "real yield." this is bloomberg tv. ♪ david: he grew up in a trailer park in florida, where his father parked an old bus, but their modest means did not keep his parents from teaching their children to help those less fortunate. his circumstances did not get in the way of his dream to become a doctor. at duke, paul farmer studied medical anthropology, merging medicine with his mission to help those in need. before harvard medical school, he took a one-year detour to haiti. there, he saw friends die simply for lack of resources and adequate medical care. that spurred farmer to create partners in health. from peru to prisons in russia,

jonathan: fomc, unchanged for the year, rate cut, rate hike? george: cut. kathy: unchanged.: unchanged. jonathan: great to catch up with you. thank you very much for joining us. thank you to you at home. from new york, that does it for us. i will see you in the new year. enjoy the holidays. this was bloomberg "real yield"" this is bloomberg tv. ♪ taylor: i am taylor riggs in for emily chang and this is the "best of bloomberg technology," where we bring you all of our top interviews from this week. chipmaker rally, micron hits the highest price in 18 months after the company reports earnings. we will break down the numbers as semi-conductor optimism swells. holiday gifts on the brain, but how are they getting to grandma's house? we explore amazon's delivery system as it ditches ups and fedex.

yea this gtv chart on the bloomberg would be your function as we see all the dots in the most recent fomc. is predicting a rate cut, the minimum. is at current levels. could this be more hawkish relative to market pricing especially if you consider we could get the china-u.s. trade deal, the usmca, and if you get an inflation scare in the u.s., could than i move be up sooner rather than later? john: it could. historically rising rates have not been bad for stock prices despite what everyone what have you believe. . the reason rates would be rising is the economy is doing better than expected, generally speaking. if the economy is doing better, corporate profits are likely to do better which again helps stock prices. i don't want to say if you put your head down and don't worry about things, i have been at this for over three decades. we have done extraordinarily well in our newsletter by always keeping the faith and staying focused on the long haul and not worrying about all the things that might go wrong in the short run. there is always something to worry about. the fear is you will nev

. -- what is great about the fomc, we have a different take on this. potential growth does. i will look at what the trends are in the labor market. in addition, i will be looking at where we are versus our target. i will look at a range of factors and stability issues in weighing whether action is appropriate. that was robert kaplan, speaking to kathleen hays on december 17. he is a voting member of the fomc. federal reserve projections show no changes for next year. the rotation among voters could influence policy as incoming members include an outspoken dove and two hawks. he joins alongside robert kaplan . mike gallagher is still with us. you are expecting 50 basis points of cuts by 2021, from the fed. that make she bullish on treasuries. makes you bullish on treasuries. we areprime reason that looking for that is we see the slowdown that we have seen this year, going through to the u.s. consumer. we are not looking for the u.s. consumer to hit the brakes dramatically. we think there will be some slowing of consumption trends that have been evident.

he becomes a voting member of the fomc next year.ks expected to keep rates on hold this week. the bank of thailand is expected to keep policy. indonesia on thursday. decade.had have a still with us is our guest, head of asia research. in thailand, the bank of thailand is certainly in a bind. they have very strong currency. the economy is weakening because of it. they are not expected to do anything. what do you think is going through their minds right now? >> the bank of thailand, there's not a lot they can do. i doubt they want to cut rates further. they are worried about financial stability. they have already cut twice. it is not having a material impact. more on othero measures to encourage outflows. for the time being, my view is positive. i believe it can continue to strengthen even though we have had lackluster growth in thailand. robust current account surplus. , thething will month receipts that are generated continue to be converted into the real source of pressure on the thai baht. tell us about the other currencies regiona

person willonetary serve on the fomc has died. he left the richmond fed in 2005. for the fed board vacancy in 2017, he had a hearing before the senate banking committee but did not progress. the nomination left at 2018. he was 69. joining us to reflect on his contributions to economics is bloomberg surveillance host tom . view, what is the legacy? tom: this is the conservative end of economics. over therly the shadow committee. 1960's, they and worry about inflation was there. there was an intellectual architecture that said this is how we stop inflation. he was a young wonder child the academic movement out of phd, hey college, brown immediately got a claim at the richmond fed, where he ended up casting a character. romaine: sort of his intellectual state that he made on this issue to a certain extent might have cost him a job. tom: absolutely. no question about it. senator warren was one of the disturbing arch critics of what was proved to be inflationistas. they stumbled after the hearing of the fed over where was inflation. that has been a source of his resear

to talkbe back later on about the fomc. now by scottoined ceoer, horizon investments from palm beach. are you optimistic for 2020? scott: we really are. , we really just assumed there was a recession around the door, and it never happened. that was for a lot of reasons. 20/20 is going to be a year where everybody will understand that the recession never came and the portfolio is now in a great's -- great position for the coming boom. we are in a like melt up right now. how long does this last? what happens when it stops? good point.is a there's a little over enthusiasm right now. probably over the next month we are looking for some continuing buying as investors come back into the fold they have hated this market the entire time. back, as them professional investors get square, we think we could get another four to six weeks of pretty consistent buying of equity markets. and we will be due for a bit of a pause before we get the next leg up. about: i want to ask you the trade deal. there was a report that a delegation that w

the central bank's fomc is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged after three straight cuts this year. >> as boring as forecast, no change in rates today. need for aus is no rate move next year either as they stay on hold through the 2020 election. nobody is calling for a rate cut next year and only 4 of 17 see the need for any rate increase. >> elements emerged that caused -- if developments emerge that cause a material reassessment of our outlook, we will reconsider. >> this is a fed that is increasingly confident that three cuts was the magic number. the hurdles are high for additional action, even though shows the next move will be a rate hike. the hurdle for a hike is actually higher than additional easing. when the fed today told us -- what the fed told us today was "we will see you on inauguration day." lagarde's first meeting as the head of the central bank, delivering a positive message about the euro zone's economic slowdown. >> she was optimistic. she said there are still risks to the downside, but they have lessened. the uncertainty, she said, has loosened. she seemed

rishaad: do you think the areral reserve and the fomc going to have a fairly quiet few months anyway?hat does that mean in terms of for stimulus and does it give you an idea of what that kind of dovetails into with markets -- for market participants such as yourself? >> i definitely hope it will be relatively quiet. that should keep doing quite well. overall, we think the fed will not act much next year. we still see our base case scenario being one more cut. that is because global growth remains elusive for the rest of the world. even though u.s. data remains robust and is likely to remain relatively robust going forward, we expect there to be a gradual decline. it will probably not want to risk and will basically err on the side of caution. we still do see one more cut into 2020. a slight risk of maybe two cuts. we definitely do not see a hike in the fed. that is likely to continue supporting global valuations overall across the board. rishaad: one more cut for the fed. the ecb seems to have its hands tied. very little they can do running out of ammunition. fair assessment? >> absol

what isly would have -- great about the fomc, we have a different take on this.be looking at what potential growth does. i will be looking at what the trends are in the labor market. yes, in addition, i will be looking at where we are versus our target. i will be looking at a range of factors. i will be looking at financial stability issues and weighing some action is appropriate paid i will be looking at that. shery: that was robert kaplan. we have breaking news. we are now hearing that pg&e, the utility in california, has reached an agreement with regular's for a $1.7 billion settlement over those fire incidents in california related to their equipment. pg&e and regulators reaching that $1.7 billion settlement over those fires. recoveringment also the money from customers. coming up, we will focus on another central bank next. we will look ahead to the boj's policy decision on thursday as we await the latest trade data from japan. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: this is daybreak: asia. i'm shery ahn in new york. paul: i am paul allen in sydney. let's get a quick ch

counting down to the fomc statement. all eyes will be on the u.k. election tomorrow.berg. ♪ david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, i am david westin. welcome to "balance of power," where the world of politics meets the world of business. on the brief today, peggy collins from washington on when we will get the usmca replacement for nafta. rafael onn, therese the british election and alix steel on the surge in shares. let's start with peggy collins. what is going on with usmca? lawmakers are converging towards the vote at year end which is what they've been pushing for in the last few weeks. earlier we saw mexico agreed to some of the final changes that robert lighthizer was helping to arrange and away way the democrats would go for and nancy pelosi signing on yesterday. now we are barreling towards a vote which would finalize a deal that has had elements to it since last november. david: it looks like it is

. -- awaitingiting the final decision of 2019 is the central bank fomc is expected to keep the interestate unchanged after three cuts this year. >> no change in rates today. the dot plot shows the consensus is no need for a rate cut next year either as they stay on hold for the 2020 election. nobody is calling for a rate cut next year. only four of 17 see the need of any rate increase. >> if developments emerge that require a material assessment, we will respond accordingly. policy is not on a preset course. >> this is increasingly confident that three cuts was the magic number. they are going to sit back. the hurdles are high for additional action even though the dot plot shows the next move will be a rate hike. at the current time, the hurdle for a hike is higher than additional easing. what the fed told us today, we will see you on inauguration day. >> the ecb rates and policy christine lagarde plus first meeting at the central bank. about the message economic slowdown. >> she says there are risks to downside but they have lessened. the uncertainty has loosens. -- lucinda. she seems

jay powell says the fomc may consider adjusting purchases to ease liquidity strains but the overall economyholding up well despite a tough year. output hasuring declined over the past year. as has been the case for some time, sluggish growth abroad and trade of elements have been weighing on those sectors. even so, the overall economy has been growing moderately. >> the ecb, christine lagarde hosts her first central-bank policy meeting with investors uncertain about the direction of the bank. under her relatively new leadership. markets see a 30% chance of a rate cut even though christine lagarde has given little away since taking office five weeks ago. central bankers amid a slow euro zone economy and the uncertainty of brexit. theralia, boosting resources of the competition regulator and google's new privacy laws. social unit will monitor digital platforms and a scrutiny of online advertising. a report has called for a crackdown on tech. company owned by jeff bezos has scored another success, launching and landing the same rocket. the suborbital flight took off from west texas carrying na

jay powell and the fomc expected to leave interest rates unchanged tomorrow. one person thinks an unchanged policy is absurd. scarlet: let's look ahead to tomorrow's fed decision. here with us is the chairman and chief investment officer at cumberland advisors. great to see you. david: it is nice to be here and see friends. we are all friends. scarlet: what is the message jay powell wants to deliver? does he want this to be the most boring press conference as possible? david: i hope so. for his sake and for all the tweets that will come blistering out no matter what he says. i think there will be a little message in the dot plot if it suggests interest rates goes up in the future. you will have a former feddy on soon. romaine: things for promoting that. david: that is a good question, do you expect the dot plots to reveal anything we would not expect? otherwise, there is no reason for them to have a meeting. romaine: a lot of the action we see in the market comes when jay powell starts to speak. i year ago, there was criticism about how he was communicating --

it feels like it was jay powell's unofficial third mandate a couple times at the fomc meeting.inequality is a huge story and huge problem in this economy. it is one of the bright spots out there that we see wage growth happening faster at the low-end. scarlet: we have a lot happening next week. it is a holiday shortened week. markets are closed wednesday for christmas day. joe: i will be watching eco-data. numbers for jobless claims come out thursday. subscribe to our weekly podcast on itunes. you will get the best content from the entire week to enjoy over the weekend. scarlet: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ taylor: i'm taylor riggs chang and this is "bloomberg technology." coming up in the next hour, secret projects. apple is said to have a team working on satellite technology. the initiative will allow it to bypass wireless networks. we will have the latest. plus, a pay raise. the head of google takes the reins of apple bet.

anything out of the fomc or the ecb, madame lagarde's first news briefing, to give pause to this marketchris: i would actually say the rivers. i thought some key comments out of jerome powell last night about allowing inflation to run a little bit hot were absently what the market needed to hear in terms of no rate hikes for an awful long time, and there may even be -- i don't think we are going to get more stimulus, but i think point is we leave it in the system for a long time. the primary market driver this year has not been earnings. earnings haven't really moved much. they are sort of contracting, the pinning on where you look and how you measure it, but call it flat. what has been driving the market is liquidity. powell made it pretty clear last night they are not ready to take it away. what is the stock market continuing to risk? chris: there are always risks out there. we could get tomorrow, and suddenly there isn't a deal viviana: you never know -- isn't a deal. you never know with this trade situation. but markets look very attractive, and have done over the last few months. r

we get a little bit of turnaround on the fomc voting committee.t are the questions the fed really needs to take seriously next year? jim: of course, part of the backdrop is the review of their strategies in general. there's been a lot of talk about makeup strategies for inflation. their goal is to percent inflation. historically, they've operated in what is basically a by guns are buy guns framework, where you run below 2% for a time, and you want to get it back up. basically a bygones are buy run framework come over you below 2% for a time, and you want to get it back up. they want inflation to go a bit above 2% for a while to make up for the shortfall over the last few years and to consolidate expectations. vonnie: where you get that from? jim: i think if you listen to fed officials generally, it sounds like they are very some pathetic to the idea that they need inflation to go a little bit above 2% at some point to send a signal that the inflation goal is indeed 2%, and that 2% is not a ceiling. the key emphasizing it is a symmetric goal and no

the central bank's fomc is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged after three straight cuts this >> as boring as forecast, no change in rates today. the dot plot shows no need for a great move next year as they stay on hold through the 2020 election. nobody is calling for a rate cut next year and only 4 of 17 see the need for any rate increase. >> of course if develowould res. policy is not on a preset course. >> this is a fed that is increasingly confident that three cuts was the magic number. they are going to sit back. the hurdles are high for additional action, even though the dot plot shows the next move will be a rate hike. in fact, at the current time, the hurdle for a hike is actually higher than additional easing. so what the fed told us today was "we will see you on inauguration day." leaving rates and policy unchanged. christine lagarde's first meeting as the head of the central bank, delivering a positive message about the euro zone's economic slowdown. >> she was optimistic. she said there are still risks to the downside, but they have lessened. the uncertainty, she

tomorrow you have the fomc rate decision and sunday the looming tariff deadline for the u.s.ariffs on chinese goods. something to keep an eye on as there are a lot of market catalysts. you can find the chart by running gtv . vonnie: indeed you go. i will be going back to gtv after this and having a look at both of the charts. something tells me the standard is getting higher and higher. it is so high today that i'm going toward a tie. both ritika gupta and john hyland when today's battle of the charts. congratulations to you both. do not overdo the celebrations. coming up in the united states, we have balance of power with david westin on bloomberg television and radio. he will be speaking with the director general of the wto roberto azevedo after his press conference. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, i am david westin. welcome to "balance of power," where the world of politics meets the world of business. on the brief today, josh wingrove from washington on democrats moving forward on

opposition ofthe many on the fomc at that time, and announced in a press conference a few months after he came then that he was going to start targeting the monetary side and busily have a much tougher approach to inflation -- and basically have a much touch or -- basically have a much tougher approach to inflation. this is a time when you are cutting one or two points at a time without warning the market at all. today we would criticize the fed if it hadn't told the markets in advance exec leawood it would do. he had a very different approach -- in advance exactly what it would do. he had a very different approach. vonnie: thank you for that. statements are rolling in. the first one we have is from former president jimmy carter, and i would like to read that statement now. "roslyn and i are deeply saddened to learn of the passing of paul volcker, who was a giant in public service. he was as stubborn as he was tall, and though some of his policies as fed chairman were politically costly, they were the right thing to do. is strong and intelligent guidance helped to curb petroleum driven

it's very important for the fed and iand the fomc meeting.it put pressure on the fed. >> perhaps another cut or if it is where it's supposed to be it will maintain. ashley: thank you as always. cheryl: we've got a lot more coming up. if you plan to get a new iphone, you're going to want to listen up. how apple is making a major change to the latest model. and bill nye the science guy is about to become the legal guy. why he's taking on disney for millions. you're watching "fbn: a.m." ♪ bill nye the science guy. ♪ bill nye the science guy. ♪ bill, bill, bill, bill (vo) the flock blindly falls into formation. flying south for the winter. they never stray from their predetermined path. but this season, a more thrilling journey is calling. defy the laws of human nature. at the season of audi sales event. this is the epson no more buying cartridges.. big ink tanks. lots of ink. print about... this many pages. the epson ecotank. just fill and chill. ♪ yes i'm stuck in the middle with you, ♪ no one likes to feel stuck, boxed in, or held back. especi

i probably would have, what's great about the fomc, we all have a little different take about this.ial growth. i will look at the trends in the labor market. and yes, in addition, i will be looking at where we are versus our target. but i will look at a range of factors and financial stability issues in weighing whether action is appropriate, and i will be looking at that broad menu. matt: that was dallas fed president robert kaplan speaking to bloomberg's kathleen hays. coming up, christmas chaos in hong kong may give way to a messy new year as protests continue on the island. we'll get an update next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ matt: welcome back to "bloomberg markets.' this is the european open. we are 50 minutes into the trading day, looking at gains on the major european indices. jack ma thinks the trade war between the u.s. and china is far from over. the alibaba co-founder says that relations between the countries could see 20 years of curb -- turbulence if they aren't careful in how they handle trade talks. ma spoke to bloomberg in november before china and the u.s. reached

jonathan: fomc, unchanged for the year, rate cut, rate hike? george: cut. kathy: unchanged.: unchanged. jonathan: great to catch up with you. thank you very much for joining us. thank you to you at home. from new york, that does it for us. i will see you in the new year. enjoy the holidays. this was bloomberg "real yield"" this is bloomberg tv. ♪ [ dramatic music ] this holiday... ahhhhh!!! -ahhhhh!!! a distant friend returns... elliott. you came back! and while lots of things have changed... wooooah! -woah! it's called the internet. some things haven't. get ready for a reunion 3 million light years in the making. woohoo! -yeah! francine: minouche shafik knows the worlds of economics and finance well. she was the youngest ever vice president at the world bank before becoming deputy managing director at the imf. at the bank of england, she was responsible for balance sheets of nearly 500 billion pounds. forbes even named her one of the most powerful women on the globe. now, she is back to the world of academia as the director of the world-renowned london school of economics.

last night, the fomc kept interest rates on hold, forecasting no changes through next year's presidentialjerome powell says current policy remains appropriate unless the outlook changes. another rate cut looming in turkey. president erdogan says interest rates will move to single digits in 2020. most economists disagree with his view that lower borrowing costs bring down inflation, but everyone in a bloomberg survey sees the policy continuing. that decision is due at 11:00 a.m. u.k. time today. brazil has lowered its benchmark to aby 0.5%, cutting record low 4.5%. many analysts expect policymakers to signal an end to the easing cycle for the central bank and leave the door open for additional cuts. a potential end to political deadlock in spain. king felipe has asked the prime minister to try to form a government. after last month's election, his socialists emerged as the biggest party but fell short of a majority. he's now in talks with catalan's separatists for their support. the u.s. sees deeply troubling indications north korea might be poised for another major publication according t