looking ahead, fomc project the the median projection is 7.6 at the end of this year, 5.5% next yearby 2023. the economic downturn has not fallen equally on all americans, and those least able to shoulder the burden have been hardest hit. in particular the high level of joblessness has been especially severe for lower wage workers in the service sector, for women, and for african-american and for hispanics. this has created great uncertainty about the future it's also left a significant imprint on inflation for some goods, include food, supply conrestaurants have led to notably higher prices, adding to the burden of those struggling with lost income. more broadly, however, weaker demand especially in sectors has held down consumer prices. overall inflation is running well below our 2% longer-run objective. the median inflation projection rises from 1.2% this year to 1.7% next year, and reaches 2% in 2023. as the economy began its recovery, covid cases hospitalizations and deaths also rose the rexwupimposition of social distance procedures have succeeded in slowing the sled of the vir

it is a real pleasure to discuss the new statement that was unanimously approved by the fomc last week by bringing our long running goals and strategy. the new statement will strengthen our support for the economy. it breaks important ground and will serve the country well as we respond to economic repercussions of covid-19. there were three related features of the economy's new normal that called for this reassessment. first, the equilibrium interest rate has fallen to low , which caused a decline in how much we can cut interest rates. that was clear in march. we were able to cut the policy rate by 1.5 percentage points before hitting the effective bound. in contrast to previous decades when the policy rate would have been cut by 4.5% to 5%. cutting the interest rates could increase the period when the zero, rate is close to unemployment is elevated, and inflation is below target. this in turn risks eroding inflation expectations and further compressing the scope for carting interest rates -- cutting interest rates. the risk is a downward spiral by andhe lower bound even frequently an

we also have the fomc's coming up. the dollar has paused a little bit.t is not continuing its bounds but also not breaking to fresh lows. so there is the dynamic that people are waiting for a catalyst on. matt: we are all looking ahead to the fed, but it seems to me we may get the same as we got with the ecb which is a lot of nothing except for an assurance they will keep rates low for a long time, which we have from every central bank in the world. what kind of catalyst will we get from this meeting? mark: i think that is fair. are two possible risks people are looking at. one is that the increased dovishness from the fed did not come from the fomc, but from the jackson hole meeting. this statement might sound dovish compared to the last fomc meeting and that is one thing that may be a dovish factor. on the other hand, the last forecast was very the semitic. that may -- on the other hand, the last forecast was very pessimistic. i think the marginal knowledge will maybe provide enough momentum. people are very nervous, a little bit unsure about why we su

his outstanding analysis and advice have been indispensable to the fomc and have played a key role in the policy decisions that will define this era of the federal reserve. he will be remembered for his intellect but also for his kindness, his equanimity and dedication to achieving our mission on behalf of the american people. we will miss him. thank you and i will now be glad to take your questions. >> thank you. nick. >> good afternoon, chair powell. wall street journal. you have been very clear about the committee's intention on rates not even thinking about raising rates and today's showing low rates even in on the plummet falls to 4% in inflation rises to 2%. my question is about purchases. does the guidance today apply to the current asset purchase? are there any macroeconomic conditions under which you would favor increasing the monthly pay of treasury and mbs purchases? and under what conditions with the decrease in the monthly pay for purchases be appropriate? thank you. >> so, we stay in our postmeeting statement that we will continue to increase our securities holdings at l

-- a new fomc meeting kicks off and apple hosts it's latest product unveil event with new ipads and watches most likely and tomorrow is the president's set deadline for tiktok to make a deal. a number of data releases including retail sales and housing starts and the earnings continue to trickle in with lennar, fedex and adobe as well. asia is coming off a mostly higher session the action getting started in europe as well and karen is standing by in london with the news karen. good morning despite the reversal that we saw in the u.s. tech stocks. european markets were still bouncing and that market was a stand out one in europe. we are seeing that in recent months and weeks it gained 2.8% ahead of that 2.5% so we clearly out performed but not quite keeping pace with the ftse this is unusual. the u.k. stock market has not been the leading market in europe but last week we saw it climb back above 6,000 points. this morning it's very much on the flat line but it did coincide with news around brexit that perhaps negotiations are not going as well with the european partners ahead of key

then what he said as we will invite inflation into the future , and yields started to rise after the fomceeting. that is when equity started to turn down. that can probably be get more selling and some adjustment. i think this is temporary. the longer-term technicals for this is much more supportive and favorable. as far as risky assets go, whether it is high-yield, asset-backed securities and some of the higher-yielding sectors, i would be a buyer. jonathan: great to catch up as always. jim caron of morgan stanley. want to turn to the equity market quickly. some headlines. the commerce department tiktokts wechat and transactions. wilbur ross is currently on foxbusiness, and he only said a couple of minutes ago that talks between tiktok are ongoing. he will be putting out these new rules on tiktok and we check, and here's the headline, that the commerce department prohibits wechat and tiktok transaction. with is some price action, oracle down about 2% in the premarket. if you can find facebook in early trading, facebook picking up a bit. tom: i find it extraordinary. i know i am a crimina

election and fomc meeting for the first time since 1984, a treasury refunding announcement as well asthat will be a huge weekend you are seeing the vol markets price and volatility around that week. and even beyond. we think that's going to be huge. as far as the election results themselves, the clearest take away that we have is if there is a sweep, whether it be republican or democrat, that is likely to steepen out the back end of the curve as we think to increasedlate spending and increased fiscal spending for years to come as when you have control of both congress and the white house. that is when major deals are able to get done. that is one of the key things we will be looking at. what is your assessment as to a further stimulus package either before november or potentially what it looks like after november if there is a change in the administration? think theight now, we odds of a fiscal stimulus are growing lower and has been for some time, if you think about what has been going on in congress. it does not seem like they have gotten any closer to a deal so in our base case for

the fomc said the fed will maintain monetary policy until the u.s.back to maximum employment and 2% inflation. chairman powell called it powerful and determined guidance. >> we believe that particularly this very strong forward guidance, powerful forward guidance we have announced today will provide strong support for the economy. effectively, we are saying rates will remain highly accommodative until the economy is far along in its recovery, and that should be a powerful statement in supporting economic activity. shery: the bank of japan meets the new prime minister was elected. the doj is expected to keep stimulus untouched later as the recover.ooks to -- suga has pledged to maintain abe's economic policies. we understand oracle will get full access to tiktok's source code and updates to make sure there are no backdoors to access data. the agreement remains on the table ahead of a september 20 deadline. president trump says he expects a briefing thursday morning our time. has kong's government formally protested the trump administration's move to l

jonathan: how divided is the fomc?ne: it is mostly in the same direction, although you have seen bullard talk about his concerns about inflation. if they were completely unison and unanimous in terms of what they wanted, you would not have seen two dissents. you have neel kashkari at the minneapolis fed who thinks we need more overshooting, and robert kaplan saying we were not ,eady to go to forward guidance including some type of forward guidance where they commit to overshooting after the announcement at jackson hole was necessary. it is not deeply divided but it is not on the same page. when you're talking about overshooting on inflation it does make a difference when you're talking being about mild overshooting. the noise is undermining their message. jonathan: it would be harder to communicate if you did have a broad consensus on the fomc. i'm not in the business of making up excuses for chairman powell and what many felt was a bad news conference for him, but i wonder if that goes some way to explain why he canno

all of this before the fomc announcement at 2:00 p.m. fed policymakers are expected to reinforce the policy shift they re-articulated last month. and athan longer rates target of inflation slightly above 2% in perseus -- in pursuit of broader employment. any news out of the meeting will be nuanced in communicating how they plan to implement the strategy. will they spout conditions that will justify continued lower rates? will they quantify quantitative easing? the original rationale for buying assets was to bring the market back to smooth functioning. now it is probably to support the recovery. is not clearit that matters because people want to know the fed has their back. --id: i had fought the fed i'd thought the fed kind of said that last time, we have your back. what more could they say this way? the rumor there will be further enforcement of monetary policy, or is it the fact? nerds will be looking for specific parameters on what the fed will say and what numbers will be used to keep rates lower for longer. most people would get the

fomc decision tomorrow. are we expecting anything at all?eting, they said we are willing to have interest rate averages and -- inflation averaging. do we expect anything coming out tomorrow at all? michael: not really. the statement will have to acknowledge maybe a little improvement in the economy since the last time they met, but the question is whether they would give us a different kind of forward guidance, put any kind of timeframe on when they would consider raising interest rates. the general impression on wall street is we will not get that now. most numbers of the fed have said they do not think it needs to be done now, since the economy is still struggling to get ahead. we will also get new economic projections and see whether they think the economy is going to be as bad as they had thought or whether they will take into account some improvement. david: the activity will not be at the monetary and of the spectrum -- monetary end of the spectrum. what about the fiscal end of the spectrum? we just talked with tyler goodspeed of the w

ago we got the new framework of average inflation targeting from powell. ,ut since then, we had the fomcwo dissents, and then charles evans raising the prospect of hiking rates even before inflation hits the 2% level. maybeu surprised there is not as much togetherness or consensus about the path forward as there seemed to be? tim: no. i think it emerged quickly after the fed announcement framework. you saw the fed taking different interpretations of what that is. i think a really critical point to remember is all of this is something that will happen in the future. right now, forecasting the outlook does not support the issue higher. a uniform idea of what average means. we are not sure what their ultimate intentions are. caroline: great to always have it with as. professor at the university of oregon. we wish you well, particularly with the fires in your state and we hope you can stay safe throughout them. now let's get some breaking news for you because there are deals being done. a private equity giant nearing a $3 billion plus deal for 1-800 contacts. it looks as though there is some

350 point up on the dow, s&p up by 1.3 to 1.5% the key thing you're looking out for this week is the fomctail sales what jay powell says that could be key for markets in the coming days back to you. >> coming up michele grossman has a look ahead into our weekday forecast >> still ahead fils eeg amieflin the fire the historic wildfires sweeps the west there are thoughts that are hard to control you're not good enough but i am enough music and i know what i'm made of put your skin in the game with a razor that puts your skin first venus my skin. my way. try new nature's bounty stress comfort. three unique gummies for your unique needs. find peace. boost mood. sleep well. stress comfort comes naturally, only from nature's bounty comes naturally, familieenduring illness,ht now. losing their employer's plans in droves. they need lifelines now. when americans desperately need it. this is my promise to you. when i'm president, i will take care of your health care coverage and your family the same way i would my own. i'm joe biden and i approve this message. want to eliminate odors without heavy,

we look at it from every perspective, fomc gets briefed on quarterly basis at the board we talk about it more or less on an ongoing basis. it is something we monitor i don't know that the connection between asset purchases and financial stability is a particularly tight one but again, we won't be just assuming that, we'll be checking carefully as we go by the way, the kinds of tools that we would use to address those sorts of things are not really monetary policy, more tools that strengthen the financial system. >> thank you don lee. >> chair paul, i'd like to ask you about the labor market as you know in august there were about 30 million persons claiming unemployment benefits if the jobs for august show 13 1/2 million unemployed, about 6 million more than before the pandemic, i wonder how you reconcile that and what you think the labor market conditions are. >> i think the overall picture -- take a step back from this the overall picture is clear the labor market has been recovering but it's a long way, a long way from maximum employment that's the bottom line on it within that, cla

these are your headlines jp morgan ceo jamie dimon tells cnbc the fed has done enough as the fomc prepares to relace the latest forecast. >> right now, they are so wide open, they don't need to pump it up anymore let nature take its way. >>> eu commission president evokes the european spirit in her state of the union address hailing the block's collective action in the face of the outbreak >> europe has put in place its own common tools to compliment national fiscal stabilizers. this is a remarkable moment of unity in the european union. this is an achievement we should take collective pride in >> inditex shows profit and says rapid recovery is on the way shares of apple is on early gains as tim cook unveils a fitness service and new watch and ipad >> health care providers are also seeing the benefits of offering an apple watch. they know it can make a big difference in the lives of patients, customers and employees. >>> it is a big day of action. let's look at the fx markets the euro and sterling trading further. one of the focal points will be the forecast we are expecting a rosier pictu

the fomc is expected to keep its policy flexible.s rate decision that day and on thursday, we will hear from the boj and the boe. yes and on thursday, we could see a rate cut in south gdp their shrink an annualized 51% in the second quarter. indonesia and taiwan discuss their decisions and we will get details on the bank of russia, which has published a draft guide 20-20 -- 2021-2023. policy won't remain loose for a long time. in the latest bloomberg survey of economists show more for what guidance in the september meeting, likely linking achievements in interest rates to the near 2% average inflation targets. koukou is still with us. going totlined he is let the economy run hot, average inflation in jackson hole so how do they communicate this in september? do we get a new strategy to this guidance in september or do they wait until after the u.s. election? >> i think they'll have to give action because if you look at the current environment, they are struggling with the inflation or realized inflation, adjusted. part of the inflati

and secondly, are you suggesting that in the future the statement will give the fomc reason to raise interest rates if they think there is risk of financial instability? ms. brainard: yes. let me take those, maybe in reverse order. you are highlighting what is important. that is unlikely to receive as much attention. it is an important change that the new statement recognizes that financial stability is necessary to the achievement of axum employment and price stability. it is an important recognition. evolution. it is an it doesn't necessarily flow from those same changes in the macroeconomic environment. that combination of a low neutral rate, flat phillips curve, and low inflation can lead to more cyclical volatility and asset prices. we note in the last few cycles -- setting aside, obviously covid is different -- the financial imbalances rather than goods and services inflation were notably elevated. long period where market participants could expect low for long interest rates along with high rates of resource utilization, those are circumstances in which you sent to see risk ap

the fed vice chairman exclusively told bloomberg the fomc will keep rates near zero until it achievesfull employment, but that will require more help from the government. are saying quite simply is perhaps in a normal recession, or perhaps if we were back in february, then obviously getting to 2% and moderately exceeding 2% would be within our forecast, but because of the depth of the shot, the economy has to recover, and as i said in our baseline with the last downturn, it will occur within three, three-plus years, but until we get to that point, overshooting is just an academic point, and we actually went to get the economy to 2%, and we think along with fiscal support that that can happen. >> meanwhile, fund manager after fund manager has come on the show, saying we are at a risk of creating a bubble if not already. how does that factor into your calculus about this? clarida: that is an important consideration. we get regular briefings on stability and get twice-yearly reports, and we are attentive to that risk, but we have a dual mandate, which is maximum employment and price stab

you mentioned a treasury supply at ecb, the fomc. these are real risks you need to manage ahead of time. i think it changes the mentality of the retail investor in particular, as well as the long haul community as well. jonathan: stuart kaiser, always great to catch up with you. we approach the back end of the year, summer is truly over. it is constantly refining the narrative to fit the price. fooled by softbank. how many people came up with eloquent, nice, finessed arguments about what we have a surgeon august? -- surge in august? softbank acting like a hedge fund. tom: the numbers are worth repeating and thank you for really great work on this. the printed value of the derivatives. the cash in is believed to be for billion dollars. they made roughly -- $4 billion. they made roughly 100% on the trade. who pays that bill? jonathan: li said you said something that turned out to be profound. if you think we have seen one now? lisa: it is hard for a reality check. i don't see any discussion about fundamentals. i don't hear people sayin

more on the volatility in market post fomc. mahajan,ng in mona with all global. what was the most important thing for investors to pool from yesterday's news conference? mona: i think generally speaking, it is lower for longer four years now. if you look at the fed's projection, they have rates at the zero bound through 2023. also notable from yesterday, their upgrade of 2020 forecasts. unemploymentgdp, projections, and even brought up inflation projections as well. finally, i would point to 2021, the fed looks at a rebound year. gdp growing to 4% next year. if you are looking at a backdrop where both is accelerating in 2021 and rates are still near the zero bound, to us, that is still pretty good backdrop for risk assets. keep in mind the phrase that comes into mind, there is no alternative. when rates are the slow, liquidity is flooding the system. you will see investors have very little choice but to move out the risk spectrum. ,reas like equity more broadly areas like gold, even parts of the credit market, still remain attractive. vonnie: this is where moral

it is fomc decision day. unveiling a strategy on inflation.oday they have the opportunity to back up their plan with details as they look to accelerate the u.s. economic recovery. berkeley economist and political hasntist barry eichengreen been refracting on the pandemic. his thoughts on why october could be the most dangerous month of all. washington lost a trading heatingthis week and is calls on aluminum tariffs after canada was ready with retaliatory measures. theghts is our from president of the national foreign trade council. let's get to the markets because we are seeing markets just calm off a little bit. the nasdaq is negative. the s&p 500 up above one third of a percent. ipo, we willessful get to in a moment. the dollar index is below 93. we will ask barry eichengreen about the dollar in a moment. crude oil back about $40 per barrel. many elements to this. trader is commodity saying now is the time to get into commodities in general. no doubt that supplied a bit of a bid. i want to point out snowflake because we saw the ipo today. it

next week's fomc meeting as well. questions over how to implement the policy shift to lower for longer and a tolerance for higher inflation is taking place at the moment. and the buildup of bullish options on a tech names capable of dragging the s&p and the nasdaq with them wherever they go. up on the bullish call options, it was a week ago the financial times were saying what was causing the turmoil in tech was softbank coming in big. on the other hand we heard robinhood investors. we know or is it a genuine rotation? bothet: it a little bit of an individual investors play a big role. softbank is there, it is not clear who came first. it is clear options activity help drive those tech stocks to new highs over the summer. a couple names like apple and tesla which are bigger and bigger portions of the indexes they are in. those calls amplify moves to the upside. the question is how much the options drive the decline, and it is not clear. there is still a lot of activity on a daily basis in options. the volatility has n

you have the fomc meeting on wednesday. policymakers will likely read rate there dovish stance. we had a shift in thinking, lower for longer when it comes to rates, tolerance for higher inflation in the pursuit of fullerton employment. that is pushing the u.s. dollar lower versus all of the major currencies. you can see gold popping, getting towards that 1960 level. david: thank you so very much. that is scarlet fu on the markets. president trump is on his way to the swing state of arizona. we talk with the troop veteran of arizona -- we talk with a true veterans of arizona politics. rick davis explains arizona to us. ons is "balance of power" bloomberg television and radio. ♪ david: this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. time for first word news. we go to mark crumpton. , top eugela merkel officials, and xi jinping held talks today focused on trying to reinvigorate economic and trade discussions and ease political tensions. angela merkel stressed any eu china trade agreement should lead to issues with united states. to block asserted it is up china to mee

the corporate credit market, we will look at the state of the market is the fed kicks off its today fomcng. we will speak with morgan stanley, the head of their corporate credit strategy unit. regardingews now covid-19, jp morgan is sending some of its manhattan workers home after one of its traders tested positive for covid-19. it comes a day or two after we learned that j.p. morgan was asking its trading floor employees to come in as long as they were healthy and there were no other meta-getting factors. apparently, the fifth floor of the companies building was affected on september 13 and employees were asked to go home this after one of the employees and its equity trading division tested positive for the coronavirus. there are concerns about the virus that shaped the emotions of the markets. across north america, we have seen positive action. the major indices are moving hired today and we have seen -- are moving hired today we saw positive sentiment yesterday thanks to some m&a. all but financials are moving higher today. tech is higher and we are keeping our eye on apple and we wi

. >> the big event was the fomc meeting, which concluded yesterday.y they expect interest rates to remain near zero until at least 2023 now, policy makers added they will not tighten policy until inflation has risen above 2% for some time. they also vowed to keep their bond buying program at its current pace so this has been providing support to markets and will continue do so, but interestingly, jerome powell, the chair of the federal resevgs renewed his request for support from calling for more fiscal stimulus to help support the u.s. economy. we have more news on tiktok, the deal we've been following closely the last few weeks president trump told reporters he was not ready to approve a proposal from the chinese company tiktok, that puts oracle in charge of the u.s. operations remember, president trump can asked for a complete sale, and what looks like transpired is a deal that makes oracle a technology partner not a full buyer. trump said it must be 100% as far as national security is concerned. adding he would have to look at the deal before sign

discussed, meaning fully guidance is the cornerstone of the strategy and they said that in the last fomcting where they suggested no rate hikes until 2022. maybe that will extend until 2023. they have been quite dovish on that point. we do not know what the balance sheet objectives are in terms of how many bonds they will buy how big the balance sheet will get. sheetre using the balance -- bonds to stabilize the market. theyill -- how much will use going forward -- how much will they buy in order to stimulate the economy, help the economy which higher inflation targets -- reach higher inflation targets? they want to know flexible, average inflation targeting -- what does that mean -- they have left it they -- vague. how hard could it go before they get worried about it? some clarification of how they are thinking about these issues will be useful. dovishll come out with projections -- particularly the gridlock in washington with regard to fiscal stimulus that could hurt the economy in the fourth quarter of this year. what you make of phil leblanc's concerns regarding the currency -- link

also, the fomc gathering for a two-day policy meeting. inflation. what, tom? jonathan: what are you complaining about? ohe isn rumored to take on the mets and lisa abramowicz kobe the first base coach. abramowicz will be the first base coach. what does he need to does he need to do to turn around the sorriest franchise in baseball? lisa: a means to lower pay and increase results. that is the bottom line. they are already losing. they are already at the bottom of the conference and it has been a short season. it is a very expensive team. tom: look at that passion. the show is the wrath. look at the passion from abramowitz. lisa: no one needs to hear me talk about baseball. jonathan: you know what i love from lisa, she has this one line, she says let me tell you something. says let me tell you something, it means you are all idiots. lisa: carry on, john. jonathan: you will hear it over the next couple of hours when she refers to tom and me. .07% on the s&p. weakest. i have to say, the range and treasuries has really helped, and not many people think it will brea

i think the fact that the messaging from the last fomc suggested the fed was not about to ease anytime soon, that additional qe was quite high, the fact is, even on the fiscal side, there's a certain lack of responsiveness. i think that has not been helpful. there are quite a few things which have created a reversal positioning, and the positioning's have built fairly long euro and the move from $1.15 to $1.20. alix: denmark is now saying it may increase covid restrictions until october 18, and then could actually increase them. so how much more of that positioning and shift do we still have to see, or do we just stay around these levels right now? alan: i think we are fairly advanced in terms of the corrections. the big breakout point was around $1.15. if you look at what happened a couple of days ago, we did break some pretty important levels on the dxy. 94 was being signaled out in particular, just below $1.17 on euro-dollar. that points the way toward something like $1.15 on euro-dollar as the next area of support. i don't fare there is a real enthusiasm for the dollar. i think thi

folks that last week we came out the gate strong, monday, tuesday and peaked wednesday during the fomceeting. wall street definitely wants something more from powell than platitudes but also can it be possible now with all of the sabre-rattling over the weekend we do get a fiscal deal? >> look, charles, i have been pessimistic we'll get any sort of additional fiscal stimulus. put this in perspective it has been two months since they knew the enhanced unemployment was coming to an end. that is when the negotiations started and they have gone nowhere. ask yourself what benefit to nancy pelosi and chuck schumer and joe biden does continually strengthening economy have for them? there is literally no incentive for the democrats to compromise on anything to push something across the aisle or try to figure out some sort of deal to further stimulate the economy. charles: yeah. >> but i would say to that, look on the whole, we've already recovered in retail sales. we are on our way back to the moon as i would say in terms of the economy. we're on the right trajectory. the only people getting h

i know the fed says they will be there, this has been a few now fomc meetings where the inability ofay powell to truly articulate what they're going to do next in my mind sparked some selling? >> well, charles, gary and phil are such tremendous contributors. i'm so happy they didn't steal my answer, we don't have the physical stimuli. that has taken us up to record highs. if there is any doubt, there currently is in the markets right now, a third fiscal stimulus package doesn't come to fruition very short term, people get upset about that the market have the taper tantrum. we saw the federal reserve tapering asset purchases. the market reacting negatively. the market is used to government management of the economy, charles. so i think once we get more clear, more clarity with regard to fiscal stimulus, i think it will come after the election. doesn't matter who wins. somebody will want to keep the party going. so, yes, we're going to get more fiscal stimulus. it is going to be in the trillions. we already have 10 trillion in the system, but hey, let's do more. yes, the fed is going t

we have another fomc meeting on november 4th, keep in mind i will be interested in seeing what the projectionsike. since june, we did get some firming in the economy as david alluded to, gdp, inflation, unemployment, all could be upgraded. i'll also see what the '20 and '21 forecast will look like. >> the idea of somebody more elaboration on average inflate targeting might be helpful to the martz, either in the statement or in the press conference, what that means and how this will play out in practice. >> i think it's an interesting -- recently fed speakers haven't had much urgency, but that means that any type of concrete progress could be a surprise and a real -- i think the cases there is a very deep hole, a very uneven recovery and there are real risks. against the very low expectations, i think that would be a real surprise. >> very interesting. we await the decision here in about 17 seconds i don't want to squeeze another question in and put under the circumstances over the point there where we go to steve liesman for that, and kelly will take us there in just a moment. >> let's mention

we look at from every perspective, the fomc gets briefed on a quarterly basis. at the board here we talk about it more or less on an ongoing basis. it is something we monitor. but i don't know that the connection between asset purchases and financial stability is a particularly tight one. but again, we won't be just assuming that. we will be checking carefully as we go. by the way, the kinds of tools we would use to address those sorts of things are not really monetary policy. it would be more tools that strengthen the financial system. >> thank you. don lee? >> chair powell, i would like to ask you about the labor market. as you know, in august, there were about 30 million persons claiming unemployment benefits. yet the jobs report for august showed about 13.5 million unemployed, about 6 million more than before the pandemic. i wonder how you reconcile that [ inaudible ] and labor market conditions are. >> i think the overall picture, take a step back from this, the overall picture is clear and that is that the labor market has been recovering but that it's a l

the way we do it is what we projections of the 17 people who are participants on the fomc. they are free to make whatever assumptions they need. we do not survey them on every little thing. assume somemany fiscal action. we did not create a table. i cannot tell you exactly what was assumed, but fiscal action underlies many current forecasts . >> let me try this a different way what happens to growth and employment if there is not -- chair powell: what has happened lately is the economy has proved resilient, both to the broader spread of the disease over the summer and some of the southern and western states, and also did -- also to the expiration of the cares act benefit. i will tell you what i think the risk is. savings are very high, that is because of a number of things. part of it is the cares act. there are still 11 million people unemployed. the risk is that over time they go through those savings, they have not been able to find employment yet because it will take a wild to get 11 million people back to work. they are -- there spending will decline, their ability to

at the same time, i would say the risk ahead for this week is all around central banks, notably the fomc wednesday because if they do strike a less dovish tone, then markets expect, then we could see equities on the back foot again so it is a crucial week ahead to determine the next direction for stocks. it is interesting, goldman sachs and deutsche bank both suggest the u.s. stock selloff may be nearing an end. when we hear those views, what is the justification for thinking that? tech only rallies so far and can only pull back so far? those who are optimistic, what is the reason, do you think? laura: when we look at the underlying conditions that have theylled stocks higher, haven't materially changed. we still have exceptional accommodation, vaccine optimism with headlines coming back, and we are still seeing signs of the global growth recovery still gaining traction albeit at a slower pace. those things are still supportive of stocks and when we look at the u.s. market in particular, declines have been concentrated and a relatively small handful of stocks. only a quarter of the s&p 5

fomc will keep policy flexible.zil's rate decision on that day and thursday we will hear from the bank of japan and the bank of england. also thursday we see a rate cut in south africa after gdp shrank an annualized 51%. taiwan announcing decisions. friday we get details from the bank of russia which published a draft guide until 2023. they say policy or main loose like most others for a long time. u.k. and the european union are heading for a chaotic split without a new trade deal. the e.u. has threatened to take legal action in a proposed bill which claims to walk down the brexit agreement if it is scrapped by the end of this month. rejected the request and said it won't back down. committedvernment is to the implementation of this protocol. the vice president requested the u.k. withdraw its market legislation. i explained to the vice president we could not and would not do that. i stressed the vital portions of reaching agreement through the committee on these important questions. anna: for more we are joined by

at the end of its meeting, the fomc said the fed will maintain monetary policy until the u.s.ent and 2% inflation. german jay powell called it powerful and determined guidance. particularve this and strong forward guidance that we have announced today will provide strong support for the economy. saying rateswe are will remain highly accommodative until the economy is far along in its recovery. that should be a powerful statement supporting economic activity. rishaad: the bank of japan keeping it stimulus untouched as the prime minister began his first full day on the job. off his been showing new cabinet. the boj leaving its 10 year bond yield target unchanged and its policy balance rate at minus zero point 1%. hong kong's government has formally protested the trump administration's move to label imports as made in china rather than made in hong kong. they called the move irresponsible and highly inappropriate. hong kong has made a complaint to the u.s. trade representative, robert lighthizer. let's check out japanese equities are returning from the lunch break following the b

with the fomc leaving the markets and a little information lot of questions about the state of the economy and the recovery. we are seeing japanese futures holdings that he at the moment. at this of course as we head for the boj decision. really not much change expected right there. stimuluscy to step up receiving. we have a new cabinet in japan as well with the new prime minister su,gaga. right now, under a little bit of it has reached the 105 level. key restocks gaining .25%. we have second quarter gdp numbers coming in sightly better than expected, but still, the worst contraction since the great depression, down 12.2% quarter on quarter, haiti. haidi: -- haidi. haidi: the federal reserve pinterest rates near zero. -- interest rates near zero. ever evolving to medications strategy it unveiled last month. >> we believe this forward guidance we have announced today will provide strong support for the economy. effectively, we are saying that rates will remain highly accommodative until the economy as far along in its recovery and that should be a very powerful payment in supporting economi

many fomc participants, those sit on feds ral open market committee assume more action is baked intoheir forecast. that is looking increasingly unlikely as things stand right now. the war of words continue between the parties but we are following all of that. then there is the issue of the virus. we hit over 200,000 deaths in this country. it's a seminal level that gets people to step back and look at the severity of all of this, and globally where cases and deaths have already, deaths already eclipsed the one million mark. a lot of points in europe are seeing right now renewed spikes that has been talking lockdowns or at least severe restrictions in the likes of the united kingdom and parts of france. enter the confusion this is creating for college kids around the world but particularly in this country where they don't know where things will go. so a lot of them are taking so-called gap years a year off, until the colleges, maybe their own families can sort of get their arms wrapped around this. jackie deangelis is following all of this and joins us right now. jackie. reporter: goo

. >> this is the last fomc meeting before the election. to investors in the markets about the potential for volatility surrounding uncertainty with the election, delayed results and so forth people are starting to position for now. does the fed have any recourse here to help maybe calm some of this concern surrounding electoral volatility >> well, it's a good question. i think first, they have to be reactive rather than proactive we can't have chairman powell go out there -- he won't -- and say i'm worried about instability after the election and therefore, we're doing x, y, and z. if, in fact, we have financial instability, frankly i'm more worried about political instability, but the fed can't do anything about that if we have financial instability in the post election period, the fed is going to step in as the fireman as they have in the past, and douse the flames as best they can wherever they are. if they're in the stock market, the bond market, credit markets, banks. we may not have any of that, but they will be at the ready. they're

is the individual projections of the 17 people who vote or who are -- i'm sorry participants on the fomc and they're free to make whatever assumptions they need. and we don't survey them on every little thing but i would say many, most assume some fiscal action. but we didn't say or create a table so i can't tell you exactly what was assumed but fiscal action underlies many current forecasts. >> what -- well let me try this a different way. what happens to growth and employment if there isn't fiscal support and it doesn't [ inaudible ]. >> so what has happened lately is that the economy has proved resilient both to the broader spread of the disease over the summer and some of the south and western states and also to the expiration of the c.a.r.e.s. act benefits. so we don't real know what will happen. i would just tell you what i think the risk is. as some have pointed out, savings are very high and that is because of a number of things. part of it is the c.a.r.e.s. act but still 11 million people unemployed so the risk is that over time they go through those savings, they haven't been a

futures are solid on some pretty good eco data out of europe and china this morning the two-day fomceeting begins, apple's product launch this afternoon, adobe and fedex tonight, it's a busy tuesday big morning on tap as well we have an exclusive with lowe's marvin ellison in just a few moments and then as joe and jim were just saying speaker pelosi on news of some new efforts, jim, to build a compromise stimulus bill although hopes are weak that it might actually get some traction. >> right right. well, look, i think that the charges that leader mccarthy made which basically are saying that speaker pelosi just doesn't want to deal actually are in somewhat synch with what jared kushner was saying because that maybe there can't be a deal until after the election how about the next three months? we just decide there's been no ppp for september, october, november, i don't know whether that's sacrificing the american working person for the election or maybe someone actually thinks the economy is coming back david, you know that we are hearing persistent stories that because vaccines are

futures are solid on some pretty good eco data out of europe and china this morning the two-day fomc it's a busy tuesday big morning on tap as well we have an exclusive with lowe's marvin ellison in just a few moments and then as joe and jim were just saying speaker pelosi on news of some new efforts, jim, to build a compromise

remember that the federal reserve in their fomc meeting in june told us that if everything broke right to 9% or 10% by the end of the year. we're heading lower. that's good news. the household survey, we added 3.8 million household jobs in august, that was triple the level we saw in july. i think the reason for that was the expiration of that $600 unemployment bonus that expired at the end of july. folks said look, i've got to support my family, i'm going back to work and i think that phenomenon is going to allow the labor market to accelerate at a healthy pace. maria: look, if we don't get another stimulus package, phil, does this market trade down? how important and impactful will another stimulus package be? >> we do think we need another stimulus package. right now, phase four is on life support given where the two sides are. i mean, the situation right now is i think the republicans have put out a $300 number, speaker pelosi is still on the $600 bonus and i -- with the election coming up, i don't know that we're going to see much movement on that discussion. maria: all right. then