how important are these fomc minutes?hey will not include the jobs shot, the depth charts from cpi. these minutes will reflect a 27 and 28 of april. as we go into this fomc, two- year inflation expectations are breaking relative to guild to a record high -- yield to a record high. good morning. annmarie: it's very true. are these minutes just going to be a snooze fest? because the disappointing payroll are already baked in. still too early to talk about tapering. they will be monitoring the data. it's the bank of america fund managers survey you and i have been talking about all morning. 69% of those investors see growth, they see inflation very, very bullish. it's a record high. this is clearly the debate taking place on wall street right now. manus: we are not quite at stagflation yet, are we? this survey does not show that. it doesn't show this capitulation -- does show this capitulation. covid concerns runs down to number four. mark matthews was with me from julius baer. 60% of india, they hope, will have a double sho

how does it work at the fomc?the chairman of the board, you, give your views first and then others speak? or they speak and then you give your views? chair powell: it depends on the issue we are talking about, and it is sort of up to me. the order changes, it is not in order of seniority or anything like that. people say let's say we will have a go around on the economy. people say i would like to go in the middle, the beginning, at the end. we make up a list and hand the list around. i will sometimes go first if i really want to make a point. often i will go last and try to sum up. i say what i think the path forward is. it depends on the situation. david: i always worry about secrecy. i assume you have somebody coming in and sweeping the room for all of the does -- all of these discussions are going to occur, or when they are being done virtually you have the best cyber people in the world to make sure nothing leaks out. is that correct? chair powell: that is correct. of course, we realize we are an -- a very at

fomc is tapering bond purchases. our editor kathleen is here for more.re they now ready to talk about talking about tapering? >> clearly, they have talked a bit about tapering. i feel like i'm doing a comedy routine here. they wrote at the very end of the minutes, just like a throwaway line. a number of participants suggested that the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the committee's goal, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases. a number of participants, how many? upcoming meetings. this is definitely somewhat different from the boilerplate line you heard. almost every bank president saying yes we could get there but it's too early to do so. it's too early to talk about. remember the interview that i did recently on the show where they said i don't want to front run -- front run jay powell. another is saying i think we have to do it sooner rather than later. various participants, these numbers are important. they noted it would be sometime until substan

i know chair powell is still straight arming that discussion, but you've got other fomc participantsto say should be talking about tapering soon, and tapering is not about tightening monetary policy. it is about taking your foot off of the accelerator. so i think this jobs report is just the start of a string that is going to be strong, and as we march toward that summer meeting of the fomc, they will be opening these doors and taking baby steps towards having those balance sheet tapering discussions. they need to start tapering well before they start raising interest rates, so i do think that discussion is coming. jonathan: always great to catch up. good to be with you on this payrolls friday. can we just pick up on your final point there? i think it is important. i spoke to stuart kaiser recently about that. portfolio managers can't just say six month from now is going to be transitory. they have to trade the data as it comes in. he says they need and want an inflation hedge right now, and understanding how a portfolio manager looks at it and how i policymaker looks at it is really

bond yields didn't take off, certainly prior to the fomc the vix, really is up, but nowhere you wouldraid should investors be or more opportunistic in this environment? >> i would say a little bit of both. i wouldn't be afraid. i would certainly be cautious. even though the indices are hanging tough, they're still on that, in fact you and i talked about this 319 level in nasdaq. the qs that is so pivotal it has to hold. i also watch the junk bonds. that is the secret playground of the fed. if they do any kind of tapering they will see it there. you don't want to see the junk bonds, jnk is the symbol, that would fall apart that would get me cautious. charles: i got less than a minute. thoughts on crypto what is happening in the crypto universe right now? >> right now i think it really fell in terms of bitcoin to a good support level at 32, 33. i know it broke it briefly about it is back through. i like to look at other levels. through 40 i would be optimistic. looking ethereum held 2500 to 3,000, optimistic. xrp, 130 would be my number to get more optimistic. charles: #by the dip. mich

suddenly janet yellen who doesn't have a vote on the fomc committee, right?he is treasury secretary, but was fed chair, she makes what she might have thought as innocuous comment. look at reaction in the market that is the fed's way to test what will be the reaction. how volatile are investors going to get. charles: kenny what are you buying here? >> so, listen i got to tell you i like consumer staple names. certainly in this environment. i like banks. jpmorgan, bank of america my two favorites consumer staple names f you're looking stability in big americana type names -- proctor & gamble, coca-cola, general mills. they're not sexy but stable. they're big american companies. they have 3 percent plus dividends. therefore in a downdraft these stocks will offer stability. while they may get beat up a little bit, they will not get beat up the way we watch tech stocks. amazon is down almost 7% since last week. charles: financials are up, materials are up, some of these smaller sectors, rob are higher. before we go i want your higher, you like the winners they hav

kaplan is probably the most hawkish member on the fed but it's so interesting because we saw those fomcold edward lawrence. i don't know if there's a revolt against jay powell but it feels like people, those folks officials with any fomc pushing back. does that mean we could actually get tapering sooner than expected? >> i think so. i think the minutes certainly put the tapering issue on the table, and kaplan obviously added to the focus on tapering. i think you're going to see more fed officials other than perhaps powell indicating that they agree that it's time to at least start talking about tapering, tapering, of course meaning just cutting back the rate at which they purchase securities. it's not even yet talking about raising interest rates, but i think that we had, there's a good chance that in june, they will discuss it at the june meeting and in july they might actually vote to do it. charles: with that in mind, and we saw the initial reaction from the market, but putting this whole week together, including bond yields, the vix, whatever else you may look at, whatever your indi

conditions that are not nearly enough for the fomc to shift its view.not like the year 2000 terms of credit, lending, and borrowing. if i hear another person tell me it is not the same, inflation, i really will have a different opinion of what i will say to them. the gap between white and black employment, the gap is widening. the gap between other ethnic minorities, hispanic to white, is widening. these are groups of people being left behind in this recovery. money is cheaper. that is the risk that you look at in this recovery. tesla and amazon took a little bit of a text wipe. it will be an uneven recovery. investors are becoming more defensive. 10s are sub-160. the market leans into powell, probably more to williams guidance that it is different this time for a lift off then 2015. the bloomberg commodity index at a 12 year high. central bankers, that is what they are learning to do. bitcoin, how is your bitcoin exposure? bitcoin down by 1.4%. high mentioned commodities, let's talk about the prices. new highs amid rising energy demand. i just showed y

fomc how about september 22? november 23? front and center. jon: the chief executive comes out with one view and morgan stanley has to come out into the media on tv. tom: allan's flyfishing, folks, over in continental europe somewhere tom: [laughter] she's looking at her phone going -- some work [laughter] he's looking at her phone going, he said what? jon: a rate hike in early 2020 two, that would be a surprise for many. lisa: one thing to front run myself, we are looking at a two-year option today. tom: here we go. lisa: i was looking at the fact we have basically seen it flatlining an actual yield, the earning on two years. basic nobody is pricing in the fed moving away from their policies for the foreseeable futures. tom: let's stop the show. lisa: please. tom: inform people like me who could care less about auctions, what information do you get from them? lisa: you get a sense of who is in the market bidding. you get a sense of how much the dealers are positioned for to take down, and how much investors are interested in coming in, and wh

filling open fed positions or thinking about replacements for possible retirements and making the fomc more diverse? >> the president has committed to having the fed more closely resemble the population of the united states. he has the most diverse cabinet in history. there's a focus on filling the current vacancy on the fed, and we will have a personal announcement on that when the time is appropriate. nothing to announce right now, but there is a process in place, and we recognize how important those seats and the governors are. caroline: thank you so much for your time. do stay with bloomberg when we talk more about the economy with the boston fed president coming up 6:30 new york time. you don't want to miss it. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. government experts are projecting covid-19's toll on the united states will fall sharply by july, but the centers for disease control are also projecting a "substantial increase in hospitalizations and deaths" as possible if unvaccinated people do not follow basic precautions. the cdc reporting a

if we do expect, as priya said, upward tapering, we are probably talking about the fomc meeting in thehird quarter. what you saw on the minutes the other week that they were starting to talk about, when they were going to internally talk about the paper, make sense. there are certainly a couple of reasons, real, fundamental reasons why rates are not moving up. the first being the market going down to about 2.3% for 10 years now. the market desperately thinks it is transitory. secondly, if you are a global investor, look at japan and germany. they are at zero or slightly negative, so there is not a lot of choice. we are in the very middle of the range valuation versus german bunds over the last five to 10 years. we have seen some of the soft data weekend a little. we have seen consumer confidence start to stall out. these higher prices are not being automatically noted, it's with a little bit of hesitancy and they are starting to weigh on consumer sentiment. that's why we have not seen yields move up yet, but we expect them to move up toward the end of next year. lisa: krishna, i am won

that is when i am paying attention to into the 2:00 fomc. different story, brent off by 4%. a couple of things going on here which are really important to check in on. one is the oil inventory number in the u.s. you had a pretty solid draw in products, but a build when it comes to overall inventory. the second was a headline from the deputy eu foreign envoy, feeling confident that a nuclear deal with iran would be reached. they have not had the principals yet meeting, just the deputies and intermediaries, but a deal will definitely have a frontrunning effect on the markets. guy: let's talk about the ecb story you were just mentioning. the ecb in some ways relatively upbeat on the economic outlook, despite the financial stability risk. that's according to the central bank vice president. he spoke a little earlier to paul gordon. >> the risks looking forward are much more balanced than in the past. on the other hand, you have the speed up in terms of vaccination. vaccination is gaining momentum everywhere in europe. we are catching up. on the other hand, you have risks and unc

to get a sense of how many on the fomc share this view.ark: it is more what stage we are in the process. they are talking about thinking about talking about talking about tapering. that might mean we are several meetings away. i agree with susan, the last speaker, that this is more volatility ahead. the data is saying there is upward pressure on markets. the fed are acknowledging this. now we are getting volatility and the growth surge has ended even as the inflation surge continues. this is a crucial time for policy. it continues the next few months. anna: let's get another view on what we heard from the fed. the deputy head of global macro research at bnp paribas joins us. how surprised were you to see this early talk of talking about talking about tapering? how surprised are you to see it in this month's set of minutes? >> good morning. the hawks are circling. the doves are still ascendant. let me make two points. the first is on what might a number mean. it could mean as many as five to seven participants. we saw from the march fomc do

joining us is san francisco fed president and fomc voting member mary daly.be here. >> just starting with economic data, if you add this to a few other reports we've gotten lately from manufacturing and last month's jobs report, a lot of data misses what do you make of that >> well, when you open from being mostly shut in a global pandemic, then it's just going to be fits and starts a little bit. but this is really what we expected i would smooth through the volatility of the monthly data and really see the underlying strength of the economy. there is considerable momentum that's building. i'm still bullish about the fall we're really going to have to steady the boat and ride through some of this volatility as we figure out how much momentum the economy has. >> you know we're going to ask about inflation because that is at the top of concerns for wall street lately. basically the s&p 500 hasn't done much since april and there has been consternation over the inflation question are you still firmly in the transitory camp? and if so, what sort of data points, nu

we have seen pressure, especially after the fomc minutes.s will suffer the most in a taper tantrum? >> thank you for having us. it could be a broad range. in any tantrum, it is positioning in the parts of the market that get shocked the most by the policy change. we did not get that shock from the minutes. it was more the bitcoin volatility that affected markets more broadly. if you think about monetary policy suddenly changing, working through interest rates, the initial stage coming to his credit, as well as parts of the equity market will be affected by that, but also an estimate that if you can taper purchases, just like the bank of england and bank of canada are looking at that for doing that, it is a testament the economy is moving back to normal, and that should lead to more normal interest rates. also, the u.s. should see treasury yields go back to 2% on the 10 year. shery: we want to get to that in bitcoin, but we are seeing south korea coming back from holiday and under pressure. i wonder if this is a shunning of risk assets, globa

the fomc's own projections show it would remain at or slightly above 2% for the next three years. yvonne: boston's fed president says that any rise in inflation would be temporary. he spoke exclusively to kathleen hays. >> we are expecting as the next few months rollout that will get better reports, but so far, we have one gdp reports, and one employment report that have been good, so i think we need to have more time to make sure that labor market are indeed improving as rapidly as we hope that they will and that we continue to make progress on the sustainable 2% inflation rate. once we make more progress, i think then it becomes the time to start talking about when we should taper, but it is probably premature at this point. we still only have relatively few data series and very confident that the economy is very likely to improve, but our new operating monetary policy framework is focused on outcomes and not just forecasts. to date, we have had limited outcomes because of getting over the pandemic. kathleen: it feels like a fairly optimistic message, and if you look at what we

today, my colleagues on the fomc and i kept interest rates near zero. and maintained our sizable asset purchases. these measures, along with our strong guidance on interest rates and our balance sheet, will ensure that we will continue to deliver powerful aid to the economy until recovery is complete. widespread vaccinations along with unprecedented actions are also providing strong support. since the be getting of the year, indicators of economic activity has strengthened. household -- household spending on goods has risen robustly. the sector has more than fully recovered from the downturn, wall business and manufacturing production have increased. spending on services has also picked up, including at restaurants and bars. generally, the sectors of the economy most adversely affected by the pandemic remained weak but show improvement. while the recovery has progressed more quickly then generally expected, and remains uneven and far from complete. the path of the economy continues to depend significantly on the course of the virus and the measures unde

what did you make of them given the fact of the timing of when the fomc met? >> yeah. i think they -- the fact that they're talking about tapering at some point given the numbers that we've seen out of the u.s., given the stimulus that is coming to the u.s., and not all of it has come through yet. makes sense. i do think that it's a bit of a surprise that it was in the minutes as we saw them. however, i do think they are going to be trying to engineer a soft tapering if they can manage it. so starting early, giving themself the option going forward is i think what they may have been trying to do here. i think -- yes. market was probably expecting that conversation a little later on. but it does make sense to talk about this. and the numbers are looking good. and subject to what happens to covid and so on. but it makes sense. manus: you're adding to the legs con, henrietta, -- lexicon, henrietta, the soft paperer. let's ex-trap plate. -- -- extrapolate. june, jacksonhole and what are the camifications for credit in a soft taper? >> you know, i think they're going to tal

kaplan, 10:30 eastern, we will hear from the less dovish member of the fomc.we put it that way? tom: i think you would prefer that within the news. the pmi numbers we get coming up, is it a big deal? jonathan: yes, just to get a continued read on what is happening in america. europe and the united states going forward from here. -- on what we have seen more accurately, which is great demand and a real problem meeting it. tom: the problem is the generational gap here is outrageous. riley from st. louis emails i banner, which, she wants me to run it. she is in my ear saying, we have got to put it up. we need to brush jennifer nuzzo aside. let's put up the data right now. elon musk has tweeted out, and exclusive on "surveillance," and i can't believe i'm writing this, "must tweets photo of paper money." can you translate that for me? jonathan: i'm looking at his twitter and ss, "how much is? that doggy in the window" lisa: originated as a joke currency. tom: it is insane time. jennifer nuzzo is think about where we doing this? dr. nuzzo, would point she had to st

and now they are talking about talking about it, so we learn even from the minutes from the april fomcng this week that at that time, the voices were already starting to grow that things are going well. there's no longer considerable downside risk. there's just downside risk from covid. things are better enough that perhaps over the next several meetings, which means over the summer, they should start talking about it. that means that certainly by the september meeting, we will get that formal forward guidance that talents -- guidance that could be coming. it takes a long time to get consensus, but this is a step in the right direction. alix: even the baby steps do feel like, to have an impact on those inflation expectations, i am wondering how you make that connection. it seems like investors are now like, the fed is going to handle it, we are not going to see out-of-control inflation. yet the data day-to-day is still looking at huge price increases and issues with supply chains. as an economist, how do you look at those two things? ellen: i think if, in your investing mindset, that t

do you think this will change the tone at the next fomc meeting? wouter: it's too early for that. all this tabletop, change of direction from the central banks globally, we think it's a little premature from a big economy perspective, from the fed and the ecb's perspective. simply put, they will look to the volatility of the data. for now, they will let the economy run up a head of steam before they will take any measures to counteract that. for now, it is steady as she goes for the fed and the ecb. annmarie: we just heard from bruce einhorn outlining what we can expect from the biden administration on the $6 trillion the new york times is seeing the budget of do you think that this budget could spur fresh produce and excitement around rotation trade? wouter: it certainly puts the ambition of the biden administration central again. we should be cognizant of the fact that congress will have a strong say and there's negotiations going on. i think it shows that the democrats are still pushing forward for both infrastructure and the american family plan and markets by and large will g

come out and make a statement that was a little contrary to what powell was telling us and what the fomcgeneral has been saying. i think powell is really determined not to let on any kind of hesitation in the stance he has taken, which is that he's not worried about inflation, that we are not going to be seeing an increase in interest rates. i think the message she wants to send is that is not happening anytime soon. yes, there are going to be contrary views. i don't know that i would be trying to react at this point to this. alix: what kind of an investment world what we have with higher yields and a weaker dollar. dana: i think it speaks to the long-term benefits of diversification in general, and i am a big proponent of this, so certainly international markets are pretty attractive from my perspective right now in particular. valuation multiples favor international markets. if you have been focused on tack , we have seen that on tack -- on tech -- on tech, now more than ever is kind of the time to reassess that and say i have done well, but i my thinking about some international purch

jonathan: wouldn't people like to see lisa on the fomc?] don't we need a legit hock back at the federal reserve? tom: it would be like the second coming of wayne angel. jonathan: what would be your original fed? where would you like to live? [laughter] lisa: oh boy. jonathan: there's minneapolis. which one would you go? lisa: look at those markets. jonathan: coming up, howard forman, the yale public health professor. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. denies it is close to a deal with iran to revive the nuclear agreement and sanctions. officials also denied an iranian report that the u.s. has agreed to a prisoner swap in the release of $7 billion in frozen iranian funds. they are trying to revive the deal abandoned by former president trump. bitcoins domination of coital crypto -- of total cryptocurrency market is declining. it suggests room for more than one winner among digital tokens. bitcoin accounts for about 46% of total crypto market value of $2.3 trillion, down from roughly 70% at the

by the federal reserve which is working overtime to dissuade any notion that voting members of the fomc that they're not on the same page that page says they will stay the course. i think the message is working right now. seems like three members of the fed are on the stump, speaking, reassuring, talking about inflation, saying it will be a short-term event. no way they will deviate from the gameplan. it sort of reminds me of the japanese proverbial principle of the three wise monkeys, see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil. when you think about fourth street you should add a fourth monkey, with arms folded and hands in their lap i see evil everywhere. it could be inflation, overvalued stocks, any ex-son neil: exogenous event that could delay the market. larry glazer and kings's view wealth management scott martin with me as well. let me start with you, larry. i read work you've done since going back to 2018. you've been concerned about inflation, is it so pervasive, do you sense it will be pervasive and enduring the fed will be forced to derail this stock market? >> charles, it's

i want to talk about the fomc, the minutes that came out yesterday.here were serious good anything nuggets in there could make powell's ambition to stay pat next few years a bridge too far. some are talking about tapering and of course more members seeing the supply chain issues going farther into 2022. what are your thoughts about that? >> i certainly think we're getting a burst of inflation and i think it could last into the early part of next year. i still am the view it might start to calm down then. some of this is base effects from a year ago. some is supply chain problems. you have to think about what we did here, charles. we took the economy from a depressionary bust to a wartime boom in a matter of months. companies cutaway back on operations. you gave them a war-time boon, they will take a while to catch back up. a shortage of chips and shipping containers. what i found most interesting on the fed minutes though, was the fact that the fed members need to start talking about tapering here. charles: yeah. >> ever since that occurred in the mom

investors now kind of moving on to see what happens with that april fomc minutes that we are going toet later. fed policy, what does transitory mean? is there? going to be some stabilizing factor in those minutes -- is there going to be some stabilizing factor in those minutes? michael mckee has more. michael: i am going to bet we are not going to see some stabilizing factor because that was april 20 gates, before the surprising data on jobs and on inflation. nevertheless, traders are going to play what we call fed bingo here. they are looking for these phrases, transitory, substantial further progress, inflation expectations, wanting a string of economic indicators to tell them where things are. if they don't get that, traders are going to be probably moving on. right now, the measure of what we are looking for is going to be in the fed expectations. do we see any movement in this chart here, which shows expectations for a fed move by march of next year? as you can see, seven basis points, that is right about where we are right now in terms of the effective fed funds rate, so the mar

today, my colleagues on the fomc and i kept interest rates near zero. and maintained our sizable asset purchases. these measures, along with our strong guidance on interest rates and our

the fed meeting minutes revealed that several fomc members believe talking about a tapering plan maybe at the upcoming meeting in june because things are looking better. since the april meeting, only dallas federal reserve president robert caplan publicly said he believes the economy would soon make enough progress to trigger a discussion about scaling back the fed's asset purchase program he repeated that sentiment just over five hours ago, during a virtual event put on my border-p lex alliance saying maybe taking a foot gently off the accelerator of stimulus be the wise thing to do here. could a rate hike be closer than we think? phil camparelli is jap asset management managing director scrutinizing all of the possibilities. well how about that, phil, we got a ray of lights coming out of the fed minutes indicating some participants were open to debate at upcoming meetings next one is july 15 and 16. make your prediction as to whether the fed talks tapering. >> thank goodness, liz its been a long time coming so yesterday, as you mentioned, you're at least talking about talking about t

tomorrow, we've got the fomc meeting, the minutes are coming out, rather.ng off. courtney, what the are your thoughts on this so inflation debate and whether the fed can indeed keep accommodation going, for the next couple of years. >> yeah, i think it's two separate items in my mind, so i do, in fact, believe inflation is, it is kicking in, we are sey necessarily believe that it's transitory like the fed is saying, but i do think that we're probably going to continue to see they are saying this is going to be a temporary inflation nothing to worry about and i be very surprised if they changed course right now especially when i see their minutes coming out but keep in mind it doesn't mean inflation isn't happening so have your hedges in there. charles: 10 seconds, the fed takes its course? >> no, no, look little too hot number in cpi, very soft number in retail keeps tapering away. charles: all right ken, courtney , we covered a lot of ground always appreciate it. we're going to watch that tesla, that is something really really exciting, that's a big bet ag

ratings that we got were comfortably below 2% so it does not look like any change on the horizon for the fomcis that right? althea: well, the thing is that the main goal of the federal reserve is full employment. and it looks like they are going to remain accommodative and extreme a dovish. the question here is full employment is going to rise together with peeking inflation, which we estimate is going to arrive in summer or is going to delay. if it is going to delay and the federal reserve is going to ignore a peak in inflation, then the federal reserve is laying out all of the elements of a policy mistake which can be paid yearly by the market. matt: we will talk more about that. looks like we are still set for a recovery. althea spinozzi stays with us. president biden's tax plans continue to dominate headlines in america. biden wants to raise taxes on the rates, saying it's time they paid their fair share to support america. he spoke to the u.s. commerce secretary about the proposals. >> the president is actually proposing cutting taxes. he is cutting taxes on a lot of hard-working middle-

investors will be watching fomc minutes out tomorrow for any comments on tapering and inflation.are joined by the head of equity capital market at ubs. good morning to you. is now a good or bad time to be talking about, in your world, the equity capital markets world, is it a good time for businesses trying to ipo? we have seen quite a lot of that activity. it has not gone smoothly, things have been volatile. what is the overall environment like for ipo's? >> data suggest this is unequivocally a good time. we are on track for a record year for european ipos. it has been a big catch up story year to date in europe relative to what we saw post-covid in the u.s. and asia. i think the forward-looking guidance will be taken very much from where the u.s. interest rates settle and what the implications are for the equity markets. mark: good morning. we're seeing a large part of this ipo surge that is tech driven which makes sense because many of the new companies are tech. is it more about tech companies specifically are willing to give europe their backing? or is it more the general st

if we go to our chart for a minute, you can see there are four other members of the fomc.om the left. looking for that first rate hike sometime in 2022. gorman is not alone on that either. when we get to the june meeting it will be interesting to see if other fed officials are tilting more, starting to talk about taper, moving in that direction, and moving up their forecast for that first hike. haidi: global economics and policy editor kathleen hays. the entire world has been battling the same virus for over a year, but the quality of life and the spread of the virus are pretty different depending on where you have been living. this is what the bloomberg covid resilience ranking takes a look at. joining us to discuss is jinshan hong. what are we seeing in terms of most notable changes? jinshan: this month is really a story about reversal of fortunes. lauded for their covid containment for year, these asian economies are sliding in the ranking. singapore from from number one, taiwan and japan fell out of the top 10, and seven of the biggest declines in the ranking are asia-

i do think that it adds some questions about the june fomc meeting.were expecting that tell start talking about tapering then. i think that that is still a possibility. this was a disappointment. i think there may be some measurement issues, but i think that there were some indications that this was a genuinely disappointing number and there was some evidence that it is consistent with the idea that there are some constraints on labor supply that may be pushing up wages in the near term. so that does change things a little bit, but i think overall the trajectory looks pretty solid. >> and one of the consequences of the data was a soft dollar. what is the consequences of that for risk assets? >> the consequences are for commodity based stocks and for industrials and any company that exports it is really a positive sign so i think that gives us another lift with the dollar declining >> does it make you think about any stocks that you would normally pay attention to given the weakness of the dollar and the strength in commodities? >> the way our process

joining us now is richmond fed president and fomc voting member tom barkin president barkin, great toe you back on the show welcome. >> thanks, sara. great to be here. >> we came out of the fed meeting last week feeling like the fed acknowledged that the economic outlook is looking up things are coming in stronger on the economic front, and yet it's not time to start talking about talking about tapering why is that? >> we've put in place some pretty clear forward guidance, i think, on rates and on tapering. our tapering forward guidance says we'll start to taperwhen we see substantial further progress if you go back to when we said that in december, core pc priced inflation was 1.4. now it's 1.8 but i look at the employment to population when we talked about that in december, it was 57.4. as of the march employment index, we'll get a new one on friday, it was 57.8. you remember it was 61.1 in february of 2020 so it's only modest progress since 57.4 and we have an outcome-based policy and so when the outcomes look like substantial forward progress, that's the time to talk about it. >>

normally you say the fed can only control short-term rates with fomc type of stuff.trol. >> you're buying mortgages and you also have 12, $13 trillion of negative yielding debt globally >> so we don't know? we don't know whether -- we don't know whether the bond market is fine with all of this stuff? it's just fine as long as the fed says it's fine >> that's right. and it can -- you know, it can keep going if it so chooses. >> god there's a reason you're a thought leader a reason you're -- that you wrote that that's accurate. >> that's right. joe, i might have to have you give me a quote or something to give it a credibility. >> you write a book, i'm there for you. >> when am i allowed in the building >> soon. soon don't call us, we'll call you. >> okay. all right. good >> no, soon. i think very soon. >> good. i'm sick of doing it here, you know >> i think next month i would say, but i don't know anything i don't know anything, but i think maybe next month new york's relaxing things now >> thank goodness. >> all right we'll see you, trennert, forward and backward >>