that brings me to the fomc decision. nomura is calling for it when he five basis point cut in addition to an end of tightening. the economist there are saying "we expect the fed to stop quantitative tightening and the choice of deposit versus non-deposit investment vehicle matters for banks. ending qt should keep the amounts of reserves more apple than they would be otherwise. those quote -- ample then they would be otherwise." the team at morgan stanley is forecasting the second quarter of 20 to four for that moment. what would bring that forward? ellen: i think that the fed's guidance can bring that forward. already when we see results of the primary dealers surveyed, you will see that expectation has shifted forward among consensus because of the funding pressures and the question, really an unknown answer, as far as the fed is concerned, whether these funding pressures emerge because of balance sheet runoff or not, or, is it contributing to that? banking analysts would see -- say stop qt now. the fed would look at re

he was part of the call where you saw a potential pause in the fomc. they raise the rates by 25 basis points. i want to come to you on that call. did the fed make a mistake? >> time will tell. i do not think it made a huge mistake in the end game here, but i think they probably felt like the market had a price 25 basis points surely ahead of the meeting and they took the option to move higher. one of the arguments to follow through on that call they're probably concerned about inflation expectations and whether or not those will go higher, if they saw they were jeopardizing the hard work they had done to gain credibility and longer-term inflation and interest rates will potentially go higher. also, to maybe get it done now so we do not have to do much later. they took that option. we will see in the end. the big question is whether or not the tightening in credit slows the economy more than what officials think. there so much uncertainty. and no way to know right now the impact just yet. >> this another longer-term question, trying to figure out when,

the fomc story. even if the fed does nothing today we are seeing a dislocation in the treasury market because that would mean a rate of 4.75. prepare for the volatility which will have ramifications on the dollar, only down .1%. that will change at 2:00. gold in focus as it pulls back from the 2000 level. fueling some of that defensive bid into the technology sector. the s&p 500 higher by .1%. caroline: great to leave us on that tech focus. kriti gupta, what a rap. we can get the ceo perspective. joining us from the adobe summit conference in las vegas is the adobe ceo. it is great to have you. making important announcements. first, your perspective. you have led this business as ceo since 2007. you know what is like to lead a giant to a financial instability issue, through a bank crisis. what you make of the macro economic environment for adobe right now? >> thank you so much for having me on your show. as you know we just announced our q1 results. for us digital continues to be a massive tailwind b

shery: the fomc decision coming up. fomc -- u.s. futures muted. this after the s&p 500 topped the 4000 level extending the game above the 200 day moving average. we saw a return to calm. fixed futures dropping to the 21 level. the biggest two day plunge since may. you mentioned help -- mentioned how the expectations of the 25 basis point hike. the two year yield jumped around the 4.2%. we have seen extreme volatility in the treasury space especially in short-term bonds. you can see the downside in crude prices. this only after jumping the most since early february. we had a risk on session in new york. after hours a little bit different. first republic is sinking down more than 14%. we mentioned the possibility of government backing has been discussed. some of the ideas being floated to make the company more attractive. you can see first republic has lost more than 90% or so in the past month. until monday we saw a little bit -- i mean 30% pair that was the best day ever. after hours we are back again down. sally bakewell has the details of this b

decision day for the fomc. unlike any meeting in history it could go any way. that has the world on edge. i havei have jim rickards, judy shelton, danielle dimartino booth. they will shake where we were how we got here, more importantly where it is all going. more importantly we hear from the chairman himself jay powell at a press conference could be a defining moment for his legacy amid all the chaos. we'll stay on the second biggest bank failure in u.s. history, svb, folks. this story gets more despicable every minute. why the bail out of silicon valley billionaires. go to washington, d.c. edward lawrence live at federal reserve. edward. >> reporter: so the federal reserve is doing 25 basis points now, raising it. statement it is interesting the federal reserve removed sentences said inflation eased somewhat and replaced it with inflation remains elevated. the fed added a paragraph about the u.s. banking system saying it is sound and resilient. adding bank failures will likely result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and weigh on econ

, so i'm reluctant to touch on -- again, i would rather wait until after i am fully briefed on the fomc meeting. >> that's fine i look forward to continuing this conversation with you and mr. barr and appreciate this i thinkmy view is climate change in the economy are linked and the reality is climate-related action or inaction has a direct financial impact on people and our economy and i was wondering if you would be willing to update us briefly on some of the next steps the fed is going to be looking at as you evaluate the resilience of financial institutions to -- with respect to climate risk there's a pilot project started in january, i think it was, of this year. i'm curious how you see next steps there. >> we're doing really two things one is we are doing a climate stress scenario which the banks are already doing, the large banks, the six we're working with that's to understand to begin the process of understanding the risks associated with this over the longer term. again, they're already doing it, and it's something that there's a lot of learning going on around the world actua

in europe as well as we had to the fomc. >> fomc, the big question and also as we continue to see signsic slowdown and amazon continuing to cut jobs. the question as we hear from j.p. morgan about the increasing chances of a minsky moment is how long this relative calm could last four. >> we have the open upon us. japan is shut for a public holiday. but we are focusing on trade numbers in particular. the key headline we are watching for is exports. they dropped nearly 18% in the first 20 days. of the month. focusing on in particular china given china shares of south korean tech is at the lowest level now in 13 years so that suggests -- taking place. you can see chip exports, is significant drop. down 44.7% on the year and to china as well and the focus there down 36.2% curate a little better than the month prior but we are focusing in on that given the broader tech issues and geopolitical concerns between beijing and seoul. imports are another watch for us and that number coming in -- it is at a reduction of 17.4% on the year. that is the open we have for korea at the start of today's t

fomc will hold fire at this month's meeting. thus, u.k. prime minister rishi sunak says a plan to contain the svb fallout is in the works, getting support for the u.k. tech industry. another u.s. bank fails over the weekend and the government steps in to backstop depositors and allow easier access to capital for banks. peter contee from worth didn't says that the fed's lending program is an admission of not only systemic risk but that the risks are so unusual and exited that failure to invoke this liquidity could create a financial crisis. with the government stepping in, the stock trading is underway. you have to remember that silvergate was highly crypto exposed. that relief is being felt through the crypto sector, bitcoin at 4.6%. there did seem to be the expectation there would be a government that comes to the rescue, perhaps another buyer. s&p and nasdaq futures jumping on the announcement from the treasury, from the fed, from the fdic that there would be support. the fed re-think trade is also underway. goldman does not expect there

is the fomc going to vote with one mind? will we still see consent? ira: i would be surprised if we saw the scent today. obviously there are six weeks of data and other financial sector problems that could change this, but i think that probably no dissent. going forward if they don't hike again, some of the hawks may dissent if the fed decides to be on hold after the may meeting they are worried about financial conditions deteriorating. alix: if they take up hikes and want to see how things play out like christine lagarde last thursday, is it the wrong interpretation to make that vision? can they genuinely say we will get there and keep tackling it but hold off for a second? mike: it doesn't really matter, in a sense, the markets are going to think the markets are going to think. as ira says, if jay powell emphasizes the idea that ongoing hikes are no longer in their guidance, the market will take that as dovish because a lot of people think they should be cutting and would like them to be cutting because they are worried about the economy and their o

with inflation well above the goal of 2% and with the labor market remaining extremely tight, the fomc has continued to tighten the stance of monetary policy raising interest rates 4.5% over the past year. we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases for the federal funds rate will be appropriate to obtain a stance of monetary policy that is restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time. in addition we are continuing the process of reducing the size of our balance sheet. we are seeing the effects of policy actions on demand in the most sensitive sectors of the economy. it will take time for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation. in light of the cumulative tightening and the lags to which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, the committee slowed the pace of interest rate increases over the past two meetings. we will continue to make our decisions eating by meeting taking into account the totality of the data and the implications for the outlook of economic activity and inflation. although inflation has been moderating th

there is a lot of uncertainty with the fomc and for jay powell as they weigh up those inflation pressures with the longer-term impact of the crisis around the banking sector. we look at the open, the spanish ibex, it was a positive session in asia. some relief coming through. earnings driving index higher. here, the focus is on the inflation question. as we look ahead to the boe. a drop of 29 points. let's look across asset given the selloff we saw. the whip sign. certainly the janet yellen, jay powell split screen that caused concern and angst. janet yellen suggested there was no discussion around guaranteeing deposits putting her at odds with the signaling from jay powell. in little bit more relief coming through as u.s. investors away up those mixed messages. yields coming up about 23 basis points at the front end. that's deepening of the yield curve continues. the pound and focus as we lead up to the bank of england. strength coming through for sterling. the bank expected to hike. that is the shape of things across these assets. let's get back to the fed. hiking by 25 basis points jer

and the fomc the week after. meantime, we have seen the treasury selloff. a rally on friday, but not enough for bond yields to gain ground in the previous week, so we have the 10-year yield at 3.95%. the crude price right now is holding at the $79 a barrel level. there is a lot of optimism about china's national party congress, growth, and that has led to a bump in the previous session. haidi: let's get more on that because china set a modest growth target this year of 5%, suggesting the government will avoid any large stimulus packages to boost economic recovery. let's get more with our chief north asia correspondent, stephen engle in hong kong. this is the bread and butter report from china premier li keqiang. what are we expecting in terms of any reaction today? stephen: if you look at the markets, there could be some disappointment because they had been a lot of buildup of expectations that there could be much more stimulus in china going forward for the rest of this year, as it just completed covid zero policy's and started opening up again. and we had

in the summary of economicking projects, the fomc sees the unemployment rate increasing to 4.5% this year. i'm wondering how you anticipate preventing from snowballing while using the admittedly blunt tools at your disposalsome. >> so that's just, that's an estimate of what will happen as demand if slows. and as conditions soften in the labor market. it's a highly uncertain estimate. i mean, there's really -- we have to bring inflation down to 2%. the costs of bringing it down, there are real costs to bringing it down to % -- 2%, but the costs of failing are much higher. if you read your history, as i'm sure you have, you can see that the. if the central bank doesn't get inflation if back in place, make sure that inflation expectations remain anchored, you can have a long series of years where inflation is high and volatile, and it's hard to invest cappal, it's hard for an economy to the perform well, and that's -- we're looking to avoid that and, you know, to get back to where we need to be, back to where we were for a quarter century and get there as quickly as we can. >> [inaudibl

this is hours after the fomc decision. how soon will the fed cut rates?re seeing a slight majority saying not until 2024. police listening to powell on that front. -- at least listening to powell on that front, rate cuts or not the base case. the most significant risk in the market it went from banking crisis for the last two weeks, now it seems we're back to looking at inflation once again, 39% think fighting inflation is still the big risk out there for the fed. haslinda: that's right. the disconnect comes through really, really clearly. take a look at where we are in fed front -- fund futures. there is another hike ahead. how do we make sense of it all? that disconnect has been maintained. do we listen to jay powell? no. not as far as the bond market is concerned. let's get more with mark cranfield in singapore. what do we do? mark: we are going to have a lot to digest between now and the next fed meeting is not until early may. you look at the speed at which things have been happening over the last couple of weeks. a lot can happen between now and the

that will be followed the week after by the fomc, all things that investors will be watching closely,ncluding the chinese economic rebound which has set wti oil prices slightly higher, closer to the $80 a barrel level. haidi: and no big bank stimulus is expected from china, setting a modest growth target this year of 5%, an indication that the government will avoid any large stimulus packages to boost economic recovery. for the latest, let's bring our chief north asia correspondent stephen engle, who joins us in hong kong. are we expecting any fallout or drastic reaction. the report from beijing was pretty measured. stephen: totally within my expectations, because keep in mind we will have a new leadership team essentially being unveiled over the course of this next week or so, the new economic czar, new central bank governor. one thing i have gleaned from pulmonary china, they like to set expectations fairly low and then exceed it, versus the other way around. what i am thinking here is that authorities think reopening and the dropping of covid zero -- by the way, there was very litt

the fomc hiking by 25 basis points and stressing its commitment to fighting inflation. >> banks leading declines as janet yellen says she is not considering blanket insurance to cushion the banking system. >> let's get a quick check on wall street. going to take a little bit of time for futures to figure out what is happening. we had a round-trip just a few hours ago in the u.s. session with the s&p 500 soaring after the statement from the fomc then taking a nosedive after the press conference. at one point, we were down more than 1.6%. the other major indices were lower as well. real estate, financials took it on the chin today. treasuries soared. the 10 year yield is at 3.93%. the dollar index slumped. it looks like that will continue into the next session. janet yellen said we are not going to protect all deposits and that is something potentially wall street have been anticipating. jay powell taking the stand on that saying that bank deposits were safe but he did not promise to do anymore. the kbw banking index also down 4.7%. first republic is down 90% this month. coinbase after th

the pause in the context of the fed means to the next fomc meeting, or less -- remember, the fed whends to calls interim meeting meeting -- intra-meeting meetings. they haven't done that in a while, but if they feel the need is there -- let's paint a happy snare that the whole u.s. banking system and the european banking system heals up right away and the economy starts zooming again before the next fomc meeting. i doubt that would be so. but if it happens, the fed can raise interest rates outside the telephonic meeting. it is not a huge problem. it is not like they are saying we are now dug in and we have to hold the next interest rate for the next three month, four months, five months. alix: we would all welcome something clear and binary. the problem is getting that. alan, you are the perfect person to talk to today. appreciate all your perspective. alan blinder, professor of economics at princeton and former vice chair of the federal reserve. coming up, let's get back to the actual data. i told the guy i would stop spending and the february date approved me correct. we will have a

i think the dollar will rise into the march 22 fomc.will get a higher set of dots and we will see where we go from there, but it is a month for dollar strength or a dollar bid. >> is the pain train for the dollar that the cpi and the jobs data come in later? is the job market softening in the inflation numbers softening versus an upside surprise? asked you really have to take a bet on the directional beat or miss on the payroll data. we will see the cpi later. i think the wage will be very important to see expectations at 4.7% year-over-year. that is a big number. if it beats that, i think all bets are off and the dollar will significantly rise tomorrow. that it's into the fomc on the sector. >> what do you make of the open warfare that is breaking out on the ecb governing council. we have the italian central bank governor really pushing back pretty strongly against a more hawkish brother. i'm wondering whether or not that division is going to -- is that bad for the euro? is division in this council going to prove negative for a single

candid detail on the banking turmoil, that a pause was considered, and that a significant number of fomc participants anticipate tighter credit conditions. it could be modest, it could be significant. we just don't know yet but it could substitute for rate hikes in the future. he did say one positive thing on the deposit outflow. he said it had stabilized in the past week and we get them of deposit data from the fed later tomorrow. the markets will have their keen eye on that. dani: they considered a pause but they discussed at a time when nfp's are printing above 300000 and when core inflation is about 5%. how i is the bar for another rate hike? valerie: they need to have the next six weeks complete confidence that the banking system problems are behind us and contained. and some believe that whatever credit contraction it could entail does not lead to growth falling below trend. they still need to be confident that growth will be above trend regardless of the tightening credit conditions from the banking turmoil. the market sees the likelihood that this could be the last one. we are sh

the news conference will be live with jay powell and the fomc. that will do it for us. you tomorrow. ♪. larry: hello folks, welcome to "kudlow," i'm larry kudlow. okay, hang on to your hat janet yellen bailing out banks today. edward lawrence top white house correspondence at the white house for fox business. i ha

kriti: what does that mean for march 22, the fomc decision?icon valley bank group now notified by the nasdaq the stock will be delisted. they don't plan to appeal the nasdaq decision when it comes to those shares. the stock will be suspended on march 28. it looks like it hasn't traded since march 10, they would at 106 shares following a 60% decline. clearly some paint but it feels like the end of the era for silicon valley bank. jon: we were just having those comments in the previous interview about the kinds of ways in which banks that are seeing stocks under pressure today can try to create more confidence in the system and clearly the actions that have been taken are putting money into the system, but the market performance today at highlighting the fears that are very real right now. kriti: all of those extra lending the regional banks got doesn't have the stock investors are bond investors with those left essentially holding the bag when it comes to silicon valley bank shares will have to break down that loss. it is something we will keep

a couple days away from chairman powell and the fomc. ♪ hey david!nect with an advisor to create your personalized plan. let's find the right investments for your goals. okay, great. j.p. morgan wealth management. this is ge aerospace, advancing flight for future generations. ♪ welcome to a new era of flight. it's easy to get lost in investment research. introducing j.p. morgan personal advisors. hey david! connect with an advisor to create your personalized plan. let's find the right investments for your goals. okay, great. j.p. morgan wealth management. and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com jonathan: live from new york city, welcome to the program. i'm jonathan ferro alongside lisa abramowicz. tom will be back in a week. equities unchanged on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq, of every single day of the week. closing higher by almost 6%. we are back to that in the

charles: everyone is gauging the next move, next fomc. universally believed to be 50 basis points.ant to share with the audience. this is how much data has to come out between now and then including the jobs report. i suspect the cpi would be the most important of them all? >> this is a great way to put things in perspective here, because every data point that comes out the market has no short-term memory. the like a dog looking at steak. move on to the next one. we move on to the next data. the january data came out, seasonal adjustments i got to think, the weather was warmer. that will impact things. the inflation was all gas prices as far as the cpi was concerned. gas prices were down in february 4%. they rarely go down in february by that much that is something to keep an eye on going forward. charles: talk about the market. it held in there. we kind of talked about this, s&p 500 streakses above the 200-day moving average. held in there like a champ. made the bounce. held the 200-day moving average. one year later, historically, this is your work, you guys do amazing work, this

so we got like a whole other month before the fomc meeting in may but here is the thing.e saw personal income climb five-tenths, personal spending only two-tenths so consequently savings soared again, 4.5%. folks savings rate was 3% back in september so obvious that household, american households are bracing for tough times and then there's powell's favorite inflation gauge, perm consumption expenditures, the headline was 5%, core 4.6% both slightly below consensus, but powell says we should look at the core service ex-housing declined to its lowest level in seven months. on balance i was surprised the market didn't open higher. even though we're up now i'm shocked we're not even higher but then again this 2023 rally has been something of a mirage, right? let's be honest. so-called facebook, alphabet, amazon, netflix, google, and microsoft, nvidia, and others, they're up. in fact they're up huge. they are overwhelmingly the top, the only reason the market is up the other 492 stocks in the market are actually down 1% so you've got those eight stocks up 5.5%. rest of the ma

upward revisions in the q4 data, it will be a determining factor of what the fed does that the next fomcin line at think they will likely go by 25 basis points in march. kriti: giving us perspective during a crucial time, we appreciate it as always. let's take a quick check of the markets. s&p 500 selling accelerated near session lows. 10 points away from where we ended last year, almost erasing the year to date gains where we are at. we will keep an eye on it. the bond market catching up, 25 basis points moves in the 10-year yield. at the front end of the curve seeing a move as well. more markets coverage ahead, stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to 60% a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by swi

charles: folks, when the fomc decision was announced many immediately called it the dovish hike.hil here on the set was calling it that. but the market began to stumble. my next guest wrote that yellen and powell need to get that acts together. i want to bring in yardeni research president ed yardeni. ed, who made the unforced error here? >> janet yellen definitely made the error. she was too specific. in this situation you have to be vague what you intend and stay positive and she focused on deposit insurance and she said that she hasn't had any conversations about increasing deposit insurance. neither the treasury or fed has the bailiwick that belongs to the federal deposit insurance corporation and congress would have to get on the same page for that. powell said don't banks will implode. we'll provide them with liquidity, your deposits are safe from that perspective. charles: i saw a article couple days ago, it mentioned ann petty for, british economist predicted the global crash. she said the banks are choosing class warfare over financial stability. i thought about you. you

that can even extend to when we get the fomc minutes six weeks after a gathering.nd we sell on what he's saying. i don't know if that is derive product you could offer but a steady rule of thumb. >> yeah. neil: does he wants to get the markets off the notion we're almost there because we're not almost there? >> well, and again that's something i don't want to speculate on, neil, but we do have a product that does that. it is called the fed funds futures contract. we do have the product today to give people ability to express the views what the fed will do or not do already. that is out there already. when you look at such a huge percentage of the index is controlled by high-tech companies and which know they are so susceptible to rate increases and could have massive selloffs, or massive rallies depending what the fed does, i think that is the real reason why we see the markets move the way they do when the fed speaks. neil: do you think we have enough discipline in the markets, you talk about regulation in your piece here, where you say smart regulation is fundame

the bond market, two days away from the fomc decision. three point 49 on the 10-year yield. what is that pricing in? we will talk to michael mckee. in a very volatile week, bonds are not very volatile today. taking within the euro it seems. this is coming up of swiss regulators coming into help with ubs and credit suisse merger. people more positive on what the euro-dollar is doing, trading in line with the swiss franc, as well. 1.07 handle their. nymex crude is the story going undetected. 66 handle as goldman sachs says $100 oil is no longer on the table amid the banking crisis. >> goldman had been quite bullish. we will track goes energy and materials stocks. then you have the barbell of some safety with consumer staples outperforming tech today. we wanted to look at the financial sector because all eyes have been on the confidence story, as we continue to watch many of these moving parts. ubs trading in new york, still up about 5% on the session. we will be talking this hour about the other big development with the fbi d.c. deal with signature -- fdic deal with signature.

the median fomc prediction had core inflation at 2.1% at the end of 2025. at that point, it was three years officer with three year time horizon to get down almost to target, that's not changing the target but it's showing some patients in how long it takes to get there. romaine: i'm curious to see what the debate looks like with new voting members. there are a couple of vacancies out there as well. you have seen some of the reports and there was a short list to replace lael brainard. it includes many candidates. have they approached you about the job? >> i can say with complete conviction that those candidates are fantastic economist and any one of those would be great in the job. kriti: seth carpenter of morgan stanley, you can watch every day on bloomberg markets. romaine: did he answer my question? kriti: i don't think he did but that was on purpose. we think you as always for joining us. coming up, meta-is set to be planning layoffs this week and we will look at what it means for the state of the jobs market and whether it could influence fed policy, t

with the fomc decision we can expect that if the rates stay where they are in the very unlikely casey'd go lower, if they did, it would be off to the races for sure if you have a little bit of a barbell on that's when you could see it pay off on both sides. >> we know that at the beginning of the year you really liked the gold trade you probably do more now >> i do. if you think from the perspective if the market was peak before january 2022 the s&p is down about 19%. gold miners, gdp, is down, but gold itself is up 8, 9 since then it's doing its job right, it's a hedge that's always been a hedge and it's serving that purpose in a perfect way. >> is this a hedge for you >> it is it's not the only one. a worthwhile hedge particularly considering there's a worry about contagion and credit quality. gold is one of those places. >> what are the other hedges you have >> listen, i think the evangelists of bitcoin would argue these are the times that we look for those type of securities for i think being that there's a concern about the viability of our underlining banking system, bitcoin is

underline to make a bullish bet here gold is going to trade off the news we get next week with the fomc decision. we can expect that if the rates stay where they are, and in the very unlikely case they would go lower i don't see how they could justify that, but if they did, it would be off to the races for sure, and of course if you a barbell on, that's when you could see it pay off on both sides. >> we know, carter, that at the beginning of the year you really liked the gold trade and probably like it more now. >> i do. if you think about it just in the perspective of, if the market's peak was january 2022 right now, the s&p is down about 19%. and gold miners are down they're still stocks but gold is up 8 -- 9 since then, and it is doing its job. it is a hedge. it has always been a hedge, and it is serving that purpose in a perfect way. >> hedge for you, bonawyn? >> it is not the only one, but a worthwhile hedge, particularly considering there's a worry about contagious quality gold is one of the places you're looking. >> what are the other hedges you have >> listen, i think the evange

i was sworn in about 30 minutes before my first fomc meeting, which was the last normal fomc meetingomc meeting, we went into the chairman's office and voted to lend 85 billion dollars to aig. that is how i started my career. jon: can you tell me how different this moment is relative to what you went through those years ago? >> you know, it is different but it's the same. you know, the fed's job stays the fed's job regardless of what the current events are, the crisis of the day. the fed has to keep it so i on what his job actually is. lisa: let's talk about what the job is. there are dual mandates. one is inflation. that is first and foremost but there's also oversight. >> supervision has been a complicating factor and i think it is supervision not regulation. those terms are often used interchangeably but regulation applies to the rules of the road. supervision is being in the banks, paying attention to what's happening at each individual bank. that is where it seems to me that the problem lies. lisa: this raises a question about how much signal there is from a fed where the chair

. >> how are you positioning as you are headed toward the fomc? >> we are thinking they will raise interest rates this week. i think they will follow the ecb. they are basically saying they will pause. they are saying they are going to give the same message to say they are going to pause and see what is going to go on. they cannot deal with the financial distress. they can wait and see inflation is starting to come down. we are seeing it more around here for the very first time. i think this banking promise we have in the fact that they have probably pulled back some of their bonds, people pull back some of their spending. they don't need to go to battle to increased interest rates. the market is estimating a drop in interest rates. we'll think it will happen. but they are already calling for that. we think they will pause. this will be good for high tech stocks to outperform. >> good to have you back. we can get around up of all the stories. these are the stories you need to know to get your day going. this is your function on the bloomberg. you

a time when wall street has diverging takes on what is going to happen next week on march 22, the fomcon. the forecasts are ranging from 5 basis points all the way to a 25 point cut. how do you price in that kind of divergence on wall street? that's something you will want to watch in the bond market. but also, the equity market. for the s&p 500, it is dropping below support. you can see that on the 200 day moving average. it is poised for some kind of return. if you want to make parallels back to 2008, you did see a relief rally at the end of bear stearns getting sorted out. perhaps we are poised for that moment. which brings me to the sum of all parts. we talked about tech, the financials, let's talk about other movers. united lower on the day coming after larger fuel and labor costs. huber and left are higher on the day after the california appeals court saying that gig workers are independent contractors. a lot to digest there, i'll throw it back to you. guy: thank indeed. do you buy the dip? that's the question the market is asking itself. that could come down to what the economic

futures look higher, but that is because we had a round trip today between the fomc's date meant in the news conference. the s&p was down 1.6% and nasdaq down 1.4%, both having risen after the 25 basis point hike. real estate, financials, consumer discretionary the worst performing sectors. two yields 3.96%, was as low as 3.91%, the curve trading lower yield wise as treasuries increased following the statements, in particular, the press conference. the dollar index down 0.9%, below 102.50. coinbase getting the notice. brian armstrong coming out swinging. let's have a look. this is not the regular session. it had been railing hard this year. we will see what is priced and later on today in asia. first republic, if you called this a rebound that would be generous. pack west down this year. it is a rebound given that shares traded lower because janet yellen said we will not guarantee everyone's deposits everywhere. we said what we will guarantee and we are not changing that stance. jerome powell saying we have the tools and do not need new tools. the federal reserve casting aside concerns

start to hear what the fed has to say, and hopefully next week they'll shed some light going into the fomc meeting at the end of the month >> bryn, how about this? jeer going to break a three-week losing streak for the s&p. what do you think? >> we bounced off the 200-day just like clockwork. i think that said us up for technically to bounce higher probably going into next week, but scott, we remain dependent on this economic data which is frustrating. when you're looking to try to analyze individual companies, the overriding theme is the inflation data is still front and center i think there's a ceiling on stocks, you can't have thed for behind the inflation and i still think it's incorrect. i know so you continue to have, you know, an all-time high but the market just doesn't care you want to respect that, but understand that thing could change quickly, and we'll see what the fed comes out on the 20th and 21st i think now is a good time you feel strongly about that particular name, as we had, the s&p has been on your side the trend was our friend if there was an individual name if you lo

this is all up for discussion for the fomc. it will be an interesting debate for them next week certainly. for other central banks such as the ecb, certainly for the ecb it does seem quite likely to us at 50 basis points, of the 25 basis points we got from the bank of england. inflation it seems is back right there in the headlines. >> what does it mean for your dollar call from here until the end of the year? jane: we have been expecting euro-dollar at 1.06, may be lower. the dollar softening towards the end of the year. i think that trajectory is perhaps still there. i think markets will fear a look -- feel a little bit more in the next couple of weeks. supporting the dollar. by the end of the year that will be done. i think the dollar can suffer nothing until the end of the year. francine: sterling, its u.k. budget day. what are you expecting? jane: pretty well over the last month. economic data has been better-than-expected. it's an unfamiliar phrase for me to say that. but it has performed well into this budget over the la

the fomc has continued to tighten the stance of monetary policy. raising interest rates by four and a half percentage points over the past year. we continue to anticipate that ongoing increasing the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate in order to obtain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% overtime. in addition, we are continuing to process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet. we are seeing the effects of our policy actions on demand in the most intrusive -- intra sensitive sectors of the economy. it will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized. especially on inflation. in light of the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and the legs with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation. the committee slow the pace of interest rate increases over its past two meetings. we will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting. taking into account the totality of the incoming data and their implication

i was on your show before the fomc meeting, i wrote it down saying down downshift yet, it's too earlyt do you do if you go back to 50, which is what the data warrants, if they are truly data dependent, then they should go back to 50, you do two things. you undermine your forward policy guidance and you undermine the narrative of this inflation. remember, that word was said 11 times by chad powell during the press conference but if you stick to 25 and go higher for longer, which is the alternative, you risk slowing -- hiking into a slowing economy and you undermine your credibility even more. so, you know, it's the tragedy of the second best the further you are away from the right policy response, which they fell behind on, the more whatever you do has collateral damage and unintended consequences that's the reality of the world of second best that the fed finds itself in. >> let me lay out a theory from steve schwarzman he thinks a lot of inflation that's been created is because the consumers have this unusual spending rate. their costs went to zero, still making as much money and a l

that was jerome powell warning that the fomc may raise rates higher and faster than previously expectedlet's get to maria fight mana, senior multi-asset strategist at state street. what we didn't get from powell yesterday is him saying the disinflation process had begun, we did not get him saying a fall in inflation was gratifying, welcome or encouraging, all things he said on february 1. why change his tone at this congressional testimony have not earlier in the month, why? marija: good morning, dani. that's exactly the question i have been asking myself since the beginning of the year. we at state street have the privilege to observe online inflation data in real-time, as it has been strong since the beginning of the year. inflation is still there, prices are sticky, consumer spending, so for us it has been quite in inflation every period. being bearish on the market was painful, now it is a little gratification for us. the economy is still strong, and indeed, what chairman powell was saying that the job is not finished, that is exactly right. so we see exactly that. dani: is it worth

really keeping an eye on it as we get closer to the fomc meeting.over to the other major asset class. as we talk about the exposure to speculative bets. whether it was signature bank crypto comes up in the conversation over and over again. confidence doesn't seem to be waiting. higher on the day for the last couple of sessions. seeing some of that conference re-instilled. utilities and rates are actually working in tandem as we talk about rates, utilities have been thriving. dividends are taking the place of that, on the downside your materials. financials coming off of basically the banking chaos. how long until that so cheap you have no choice but to buy it. as you see the rates move down you will see more come down as well. the expectation is creating a tailwind for some investors into the homebuilding sector. you are seeing that outperformed today. guy: such turbulence, opportunity there. thank you very much indeed. so that wraps things up for alex and me. the day is certainly not over and fascinating to see what the closes can a deliver for a n

we expect to hear from the fomc march 22 when we are seeing the implied rate by the end of the year.vastly different for the ecb and the federal reserve. the fed implied rate is 4.2% and the ecb is 3.2%. will it materialize going into next week? we will wait and see so let's check on the banks. we are watching the market reaction and first republic shares. frc pairing the initial gains with some of the volatility shaking out and we will have far more on the show because is not just the banks, it's the economic data. the north america chief economist at mastercard joins me right here on set and we will jewel -- dive into the turmoil and what it means for the events next week. this is bloomberg. ♪ everything's changing so quickly. before the xfinity 10g network, we didn't have internet that let us play all at once. every device? in every room? why are you up here? when i was your age, we couldn't stream a movie when the power went out. you're only a year older than me. you have no idea how good you've got it. huh? what a time to be alive. introducing the next generation 10g network. on

dani: it's a sad time for me when march madness is paying attention to the fomc not my virginia hoo's. i don't know if you like basketball or not, but that is my barometer for this march. coming up, that officials have stuck with a higher for longer mantra. mary daly reiterates support for a peak rates between five and 5.5%. we will discuss that next alongside european real estate. investors are facing the sharpest reversal on record. blackstone, brookfield and others all deepening the property pain. we will speak to michael zerda, formerly of blackstone, later this hour. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the fed right now should have the door wide open to a 50 basis point move in march. no need to be committed to that until we see the next employment figures. until one sees what happens in markets. but if markets are now saying 22%, that means the door isn't open to that possibility. and there is very significant chance that that's going to be the right thing to do. dani: former treasury secretary larry summers on his thoughts of what the fed could do. as investors scrutinize jay powell's test

all of this given we are heading toward the fomc decision. have more insights on the fed's upcoming policy decision. defiance etf's tells us which stocks may benefit from a less aggressive action. we are talking to brookings institution about the banking turmoil. daybreak: asia is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ever better. it's when disruption hits your supply chain and ryder makes sure you're ever delivering with freight brokerage to transportation management, truckload capacity and dedicated trucks and drivers. as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. truckload capacity and so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to 60% a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.

here, frank, is the lack of confidence around where the terminal rate is if you go back to the last fomcole architecture or the whole strategy seemed to be if you think you're going to be hitting traffic soon or getting to where you need to, go then you can slow down now they seem to be saying, well, maybe we didn't know, you know, that that was the right place to slow down we may have to speed up here if we think that we just don't know what the terminal rate is. >> yeah. i think indecision may be the word of today. so let me ask you this if we do eventually see that 50-point basis hike, what does that say about the path forward? >> i think that tells you they're trying to figure this out along with everybody else. this has been a very unusual recovery the idea a year ago -- you know, if you had told people a year ago, the fe's going to go up 450 basis points in 12 months and the unemployment rate is going to fall to 3.4%, i don't think you would have had a lot of people believing you the fed has wanted to see the economy slow down. i think part of what's happening here is less confiden

will the same be true for the fomc?isa: people have tried to draw a distinction between the fed situation and ecb situation, saying the fed is dealing with a later stage of the rate hiking cycle. they are further along in their process. so they could potentially pause. that said, other people, including the former vice chair of the federal reserve said the fed was going to take a signal from the ecb. they are going to raise rates to send a signal. do these events change the scenario that much? jonathan: shall we do this all night? lisa: no. do you want to do this all night? jonathan: i would love to do this all night. lisa: really? jonathan: no. stephen bigger, that conversation is coming up shortly. ♪ and it's easier than ever to■ get your projects done right. inside, outside, big or small, angi helps you find the right so for whatever you need done. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. just search or scroll to see upf on hundreds of projects. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by o

. >> it is a fairly big stretch to think fomc committee very little actual practicable capital marketsderstand, that financial stability is incredibly important here that they can -- monetary policy almost instantly was inflationary stock could turn into broad financial cries household sector in great shape banking system in aggregate good shape there are weak spots because of overlyaggressive monetary policy the way they tightened. there is a vulnerability here could cascade. we are going to brake when we come back being talking with one start-up ceo got money back from silicon valley bank, after it collapsed, will tell us about his journey you are watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. ♪ ♪ nges. i heard about the payroll tax refund that allowed us to keep the people that have been here taking care of us. learn more at getrefunds.com. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire (vo) the fully e