place for the fomc.— hike in july is in place for the fomc. ., �* , ., ., the fomc._ the fomc. what about australia which is facing a _ the fomc. what about australia which is facing a similar- the fomc. what about australia which is facing a similar issue i which is facing a similar issue of high inflation pressure on the rba to do something about it. what are you expecting there? ~ ., ., it. what are you expecting there? . . . ., , there? we had a particularly hiuh cpi there? we had a particularly high cpi in _ there? we had a particularly high cpi in australia - there? we had a particularly high cpi in australia last - there? we had a particularly. high cpi in australia last week so i am expecting we could see the rba hike on tuesday. they have shown in the past they are not shy when it comes to surprising the market and we will probably see them stay on hold but i am thinking we could see a hike on tuesday because they have shown that they really want to address that inflation which is well outside of the 2—3% target band for the rba at the moment, so let's wait

we have a few of the banks around the asian region having interest rate decisions and we have the fomc traders will be looking at — the data from the us and how that will potentially impact with the fomc does next week. that was going to be my question. the fed meeting in about ten days. what is your expectation? it seems like opinions are split on another hike or a possible pause? we had bumper payroll figures in the us on friday but it was a good scenario for traders and that in a robust labour market, but the wage pressures were easing so that is a good sign for inflation. for next week, i think there is two camps in the fed. thejerome powell camp who want to go into pause mode and wait and see and assess further data and there are others who are more hawkish and want to raise rates to address the stubbornly high inflation so i think we will see a pause next week but a hike injuly is in play for the fomc. what about australia which is facing a similar issue of high inflation pressure on the rba — to do something about it. what are you expecting there? we had a particularly high cpi

they were not too different from the fomc decision. one of those people who agrees said that if were going to cut it would not be in the first half of 2024. all of that in itself was enough to continue a selloff that started in the u.k. nasdaq futures fell more than 1% yesterday and the selloff continues. you could basically see the impact here when powell started to speak. then we hit a new low around here after the caustic comments. not the ones about them holding but the ones about them not cutting. more to the point, not necessarily central-bank speak, some of the ai names are the kind that if you squint really hard, they have been selling off pretty viciously. i picked out a few, some of them are closed today, china, hong kong and taiwan are close. this is yesterday's session, a decline of 20%. this is one of those ai adjacent stocks that people love in the u.s.. that closed down about 10% yesterday. it is starting in the smaller ai names that we got really excited about, does it spread even further to some of the more established

how should the fomc posture at the june meeting the interpreted?ill the committee continue to raise rates later this year? what are we to understand? >> you are right, we decided to maintain the federal funds rate at it rate at this meeting at the same time participants submitted a personal forecast suggesting almost all of them but they would be additional hikes. those two things are entirely consistent. the level to which we raise rates is a separate question of the speed with which we move. earlier in the process, speak was important but it's not as important now. the sense of the summer and our projections is just that given how far we've come, it may make sense to move rates higher but do so at a moderate pace. we were at 70 basis for several meetings and 50 basis points than 25 basis points at three consecutive meetings and that we are monitoring that pace much as you might do if you were driving 75 miles per hour in the highway and then 50 a local highway and as you get closer to your destination, you slow down even further. >> it is more da

liz: he said not a single one of them in the fomc policy meeting said cut this year. not a single one of them. >> cut, that's right. liz: no cuts. >> that's right. so every time we keep hearing there people they're going to cut tomorrow, remember, a lot of that is happy talk from, you know, drunken traders on, you know, on the heroin of easy money over the last couple years. we're going to have probably two more rate increases. it's baked in. you can't get to 2 from 4% without more rate increases. liz: you think so? i know that. but do you really think -- >> heir going to do it twice. i mean, he said it, all but said it. i think this is going to be a rocky market. you can't unwind monetary easing of the level, the scale that we've had over the last couple years without sort of a clapback that we're having now. one other thing though, he says he doesn't like commenting on fiscal policy? if why wouldn't he? i mean, if his dual mandate is inflation and employment, fiscal policy -- liz: he has urged congress in the past saying, you know, we're doing all we can. we can't c

how should the fomc's posture at the june meeting be interpreted? while the committee continue to raise rates later this year? what is the thinking of this? chair powell: thank you, mr. chairman. we did decide to maintain the current rate at the meeting, at the same time participants submitted of her -- a personal forecast suggesting almost all thought there would be additional height, and those two things are entirely consistent, the point being that the level to which we raise rates is actually a separate question than the speed at which we move. earlier in the process, speed was important, but it is not now. the sense of the projections and the decision really is just that given how far we come, it makes sense to move rates higher, but to do so at a more moderate pace. we were at 75 basis points for several meetings and we were at 50 basis points and 50 basis points, 25 basis point at three consecutive meetings, and now we are moderating that pace, much as you might do if you were driving 75 miles per hour on a highway, then 50 miles per hour on

i think this comes under the definition of a hawkish pause, maybe a very hawkish pause fomc statement saying it is holding the target rate steady, allowing it to assess additional information, including the cumulative effects of tightening and lags of monetary policy. i want to go through in detail here the summary of economic projections and the funds rate only two members of the committee are forecasting the rate at the current rate of 5.13%. for support, one more hike, nine or half of the committee is forecasting two more hikes, but there's more, because two are supporting three hikes and one supports a full percentage point higher or four quarter point hikes in the funds rate. the committee sees more inflation this year than it previously did, forecasting a 3.9% core rate versus 3.6% in the prior economic predictions in march and less unemployment, 4.1 versus 4.5 moving on, they did see better economic growth this year, not tremendous, but 1% versus 0.4% the statement said the economy continues to expand at a modest pace job gains have been robust, unemployment has been low, and i

yesterday he wrote fomc but is up and see a more moderate pace of tightening is appropriate out of fundsate is closer to its likely peak. we think it likely means the fomc envisions hiking every other meeting instead of at consecutive meetings. jon: ok. let's get more perspective. joining us is the bloomberg opinion columnist to give us more perspective on the market story, also the founder of units and advisors, and asset management firm. economists will weigh in on what the fed may be thinking at what it does with rates from here. what you think? eric: one thing i think we can be confident about is the fed is as serious as a heart attack about getting back to inflation targets. i've been saying that for more than a year and i think their behavior reinforced that. the problem the fed has i think, and i am sympathetic to this, is the data they are relying on has a lag. i don't think we have any reliable way to know where inflation will go. so they have to rely on economic data that is often three to six months old. i think that is often why they appear to be three to six months behind th

fed officials say the fomc may keep the policy rate steady this month but more hikes could follow. u.s. equity futures are little changed as europe points higher. plus, on the 25th anniversary of the ecb's founding, we get the eurozone's latest cpi readings amid signs inflation is cooling. francine: we have a trilemma which is when you are looking at the futures, we see a higher start to the day with dax futures gaining .7%. we have manufacturing from china and averted u.s. default. of course, the fed is now pausing for a possible pause in interest-rate hikes. atrial tom: -- a trio of factors that could lift sentiment. europe is set to break three straight days of declines on the back of those factors. the china data was interesting because it emerges from the official data that came out earlier this week. it was a survey of smaller private companies and came in stronger-than-expected. spanish ibex rallying 1%, adding 87 points. the fuzzy 100 gaining .2% as it looks -- the ftse 100 gaining .2%. the deal will get done. it is unlikely that there will be any major stumbling blocks in

he didn't veer much at all not just from the statement associated with the june fomc meeting, cut andaste his initial remarks but really didn't veer away from the general comments he made and the responses to questions. so there wasn't a lot of new there but i guess the only line of questioning that was more consistent for obvious reasons relative to an fomc meeting was on fiscal policy but he was very clear in saying that's not the lane that the fed drives in. charles: right. >> so he won't comment on that. he was really poised today. charles: he really was. they try on both sides of the aisle push their agenda to get him to rubberstamp it one way or the other. i want to go to piece you wrote, total concentration, you have and your colleague kevin sonders. a few areas of concern. i want to go back to look at them. first the cap spectrum. we flow this has been megacap driven. s&p 600 around the time your article came out. it has come up a little bit, not a lot but are you happy with the direction? is it spreading out buying or activity amongst the smaller cap names has it spread out e

environment are where fed chair powell is going to have to navigate this lack of cohesion within the fomcipants that want much tighter monetary policy, as much as two additional rate hikes, there are those that favor a pause. i think that what will come out of that is essentially a lengthened period of elevated fed funds rate through the early part of 2024, and then at that stage it will be very delicate recalibration of monetary policy, 25 basis point incremental cuts, maybe not even at every meeting, but at every other meeting and an increased focus on real rates as inflation falls, real a rates rise, the fed will communicate that in its intent to cut the federal funds rate. but that's a 2024 story. charles: and, by the way, i would prefer that as opposed to emergency rate cuts. less than a minute to go, wages have been front of center of the debate, i feel the ghost of paul volcker directing a lot of this stuff. we're seeing wages come down, to what degree if you think about the jobs report that was so much bigger than everyone thought it would be, to me, it was the wages and workweek

i am going to start asking about the fomc, the federal open market committee latest forecast . it predicted that core inflation will fall below 3% within a year. this forecast has been the exact seem for each fed meeting over the past two years and has been wrong each and every time. why do fomc participants continue to make the same forecasts, and what data are they reviewing? to make the forecast? >> end up -- >> in the world of economic forecasting, there been a number of private sector forecasters that are well resourced and the data is all public. we do not have private data, that is not how this works. i think essentially all forecasters have made the same mistake. which is thinking at the beginning the supply chain problems would be resolved quickly and workers would come back to work quickly and things like that. inflation has consistently surprised us and all other forecasters by being more persistent than expected. i think we have come to expect that and expect it to be more persistent. >> it seems we have moved past transitory and they have been saying it will be und

we have been talking about what might happen today for the fomc rate decision and perhaps expectationshat the fed could pause tightening. treasury yields gaining ground across the board. the 10 year around 373 after we had unexpected rate hikes from canada and australia last week. now, we are looking ahead to this week's fomc meeting at a time when the dollar has also been under pressure, down for a second consecutive week. it has not necessarily helped oil prices, at least. haidi:s it is uncertainty of the global outlook and the plethora of central bank decisions on tap this week causing continued jitters in oil. it has been a continuation of the flip-flop of oil trading continuing. futures up after advancing by pretty much the same amount, the constant struggle for sustained momentum there. new york crude a little softer at the moment. brent crude just under $75 per barrel. goldman slashing their crude outlook seeing brent trading below $90 by the end of the year. these shocks from surprise production cuts from both opec-plus and saudi arabia are not affecting futures trading that mu

since early last year the fomc has tightened monetary policy. we have raised our interest rate five percentage points and continued to reduce our security holdings at a brisk pace. we covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt. in light of how far we have come the uncertain lags with which it affects the economy, the potential headwinds from credit tightening, today we decided to leave our policy rate unchanged and to reduce our security holdings. looking ahead nearly all participants view it as likely that some further rate increases will be appropriate this year to bring inflation down to 2% over time. host: jerome powell yesterday. we are wanting to talk you this morning about how inflation has impacted you personally after the fed decided yesterday to pause interest rate hikes due to a cooling of the economy. as you have heard or may be read in the papers, the federal reserve is expected to raise at least two more times. alan in brooklyn, new york. how has it impacted you? caller: my suggestion is that

play out into the real economy as a big struck and actually this was a pretty special meeting for the fomc where they revised their set of forecasts, so as they told us injune, they have a better view of the economy going forward, their outlook for growth and the labour market is more optimistic than it was in march, and that's why i think they now share this collective view that they need to do more tightening in monetary policy. we had also been worried for quite some time about a recession in the world's biggest economy. is that still a possibility? i think you have to take that possibility pretty seriously in this business cycle, just because of the pace in which financial conditions have tightened, and how high inflation is. there is a real chance that the fed may need to create much more slack in the labour market in order to bring inflation down, and typically when you create this much slack in the labour market, recessions start to follow, so that remains a real possibility. it's hard right now to have conviction with regards to the exact timing when the economy may really feel the

the fomc has said many, many times that we have to have -- pay attention to the lag effects of policy an opportunity to pause. because you are going to have a big decline in the 12 months cpi will give you cover, so i think are there going to probably do it. but if you look at the data, it almost inevitable that they're going to have to raise rates again sometime this year. at least once. and possibly more than that. so they are going to have to say that or some version of that in their policy statement. maria: what kind of effect has these 10 rate hikes had on the economy so far larry? do you expect a recession in year or have we been able to would ied that i am one of nearly unanimous view we should have a recessionings this year happy to admit so far i have been wrong i think it will take at this point a -- something unknown, to command and, actually, cause a recession that is certainly possible you could have a spate of bank failures he go political events whatever it is but right now i think probably going to narrowly dodge a recession this year. consumer is extremely strong gdp

jerome powell: the process down to 2% has a long way to go in nearly all fomc participants expect it will be appropriate to raise interest rates further by the end of the year. shery: let's get the latest reaction with our bloomberg reporters. let me start with you, emily. what did we hear from chair powell that was so surprising? anything we could take away given that the message seems to have been hawkish for a long time anyways? emily: this is what he was hammering home bet higher rates are needed to combat inflation and again this message when he talked about two more rate hikes this year is a pretty good guess, that was already in the. plot -- dot so -- plot a wide stocks fall? we were up so to see weakness is not surprising but i did ask a lot of sources you know what did he say here that could have caused this choppiness in the market? again, it was reiterating that hawkish message and he is just driving it home sick and that we are just not done yet with this tightening cycle. [typing] haidi: this does not help the weakness we are seeing in the yen. this is driving home the d

fed officials say the fomc may keep the policy rate steady this month, but hikes could follow. u.s. futures are muted. asia equities are boosted, as chinese manufacturing activity for may shows unexpected strength. dani burger, good morning. i have only one question, why such restraint on risk this morning? the debt ceiling is moved through and xaishin is upbeat. dani: it has been said before, if the debt ceiling is done we need to concentrate on the fundamentals. if they are the only reason to be chary, i'm not sure they are. manus: they are not, but remember a skip is not a pause, and a pause is not a pivot. dani: what mr., for her part, says we don't see any reason. there is different reasons for that. maybe that is why the trade is confused. this morning, we're seeing asian stocks move higher. that might just be a byproduct of the fact that we had everything tumble 20% from an all-time high. you mentioned that china data coming in better. maybe we have fallen so much now is a good time to buy. hong kong tech is up to percent. it had a bad day yesterday. u.s. futures, the s&p lit

since early last year the fomc has tightened the stance of monetary policy. we've raised our interest rate by five percentage points and we've continued to reduce our securities holdings at a brisk pace. we covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt. in light of how far we've come in tightening policy, the uncertain lags with which monetary policy effects the economy and potential headwinds from credit tightening, today we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings. looking ahead, nearly all committee participants view it as likely that some further rate increases will be appropriate this year to bring inflation down to 2% over time. and i will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments. the u.s. economy slowed significantly last year and recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a modest pace. although growth in consumer spending has picked up this year, activity in the housing sector r

but at this point, it would take a very large surprise for the fomc to hike again.ani: you say the fed thinks they are going to start to see some disinflation. do you think that, riccardo? is there evidence that that's finally going to show through the data. riccardo: first of all, in the last couple of months, it was very hard to convince people around the world that this affects the economy. finally, the last two months that we saw a large surprises. we saw it in canada, spectacularly in the u.k., even norway and australia. we've been going sideways in the u.s. and a question mark in the eu area. still on a very, what i call a minefield. just one single bad report to unwind six months of good data. having said so, it is also true that the global market tightening has started a year and a half ago, and that's a significant amount of time. and so, there is some hope i think for the united states finally in q3 for technical reasons, and also because of good monetary policy to see some improvements in the data. there is still a question mark aboutq4, and i think that

nearly all fomc predicts that we expected to raise somewhat further by the end of the year. but, at last week's considering how far and how fast we moved, we judged prudent to hold the target steady to reserve the committee to assess its implications for monetary policy. in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% overtime, we will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy the lag with monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. we will continue to make our decisions meaning by meeting based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks, we will remain committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal into keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored. reducing inflations likely to require a period of below trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. >> strong priced abilities essential to set the stage for achievi

just 4.7% below, not far from where we were pre-fomc dot plot.er market hours yesterday we saw fedex slump. they had their earnings, they disappointed when it came to forecasting. the demand woes are likely to continue into the first half of next year. is it the unwind of the pandemic trade or does it say something more pernicious about this economy? we are looking at fedex, post-market fall about 3%. the european union is ready to propose a financial aid package of 50 billion euros to support ukraine. the money will finance the ukrainian government's expenditures and pay -- struggling with my words. pay for urgent reconstruction. it comes at a pivotal time for the country as it aims to retake territory lost since russia's invasion. the eu has announced its economic security plan to avoid economic dependence on countries such as china. measures include increasing oversight on critical technologies and possible screening of investment coming into and out of the bloc. >> europe becomes the first major economy to set out a strategy of economic secur

26 still looking forward that first rate cut to come november 1, another one in come the december fomcyou know in the event of a recession, we will probably be looking at a lot of -- considerable down toward pressure on wages, as a result the fed will be cutting rates regardless of their still huge balance sheet. maria: regardless a recession white house will tell us not a recession because we actually had two quarters of negative performance and they told us oh, no, we are changing the dissatisfaction of recession not really a recession. >> we've seen is that movie before, as you said, "new york times" will say no, no, we are going to redefine two separate negative quarters means not a recession because a democratic in office, the economy will be number one issue into 2024 election when you look at polls, for example, when asked who will handle the economy better in the next presidency, donald trump easily laps joe biden on that front i imagine you will see are former president all gop contenders talking more and more about the fact even though president can out the numbers today say

fomc participants expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balance over time, easing upward pressures on inflation. the median unemployment rate projection in the s.e.p. rises to 4.1% at the end of this year, and 4.5% at the end of next year. inflation remains well above our longer-run 2% goal. over the 12 months ending in april, total p.c.e. prices rose 4.4%, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 4.7%. in may the change in the consumer price index came in at 4% and the change in the core c.p.i. was 5.3%. inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year. nonetheless, inflation pressures continue to run high and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go. the median projection in the s.e.p. for total p.c.e. inflation is 3.2% this year, 2.35% next year, and 2.1% in 2025. core p.c.e. inflation, which excludes volatile and food and energy prices, is projected to run higher than total inflation and the median projection has been revised in the s.e.p. up to 3.9% this year. despite eleva

fomc, yes, people are a little bit paused.s the time you want to use your research, you want to use some of the momentum indicators that are out there. honestly, i think there's a lot of upside in the risk -- and the risk is more to the upside, in my view, than to the downside here. charles: congratulations on the new service. of we'll check it out. >>> folks, when i come back, my takeaway on how this market can ignore what is really bigtime news every wells. a lot of investors -- everywhere else. i'll talk about it when we come back. ♪ money changes everything ♪ starting a new chapter can be the most thrilling thing in the world. there's an abundance of reasons to get started. how far we take an idea is a question of willpower. because progress... is a matter of character. ♪i said, i see it ♪ ♪and,i like it and, i want it, yes, i do!♪ ♪i need it to make me happy!♪ ♪baby, yes i do mean you♪ somebody would ask her something and she would just walk right past them, (laughs). she didn't know they were talking to her. i just could

fomc members are anticipating two more rate hikes before the end of the year.rs will now look to wednesday's testimony for more clues about the feds future policy path. joining me with more insight and a first on fox business interview dennis gartman himself former editor and publisher. good to see you, dennis. >> good to see you, cheryl, thank you for having me on. the bottom of the barrel this morning. >> well you know what's interesting and i disagree with that, on friday we had two fed members speak, two fed governors , and what's interesting is it was christopher waller and thomas barkin, but i want to review what waller said. he said we're seeing policy rates have some affects on parts of the economy. the labor market is still strong , but core kind of inflation is just not moving, and that's going to require probably some more tightening to try to get that going down. that tells me that we're talking two rate hikes. not one. this is aggressive language from him. >> you have to make mr. waller very seriously because he is by the definition of being a gove

is the fomc decision. you were talking earlier about the potential for dissent on the markets -- margins as well as potentially a shift on the dot. will they signal higher for longer and a slower be -- bleed in the economy and at 1:30 p.m., we will kick off our special coverage that will continue until after the press conference. jon: the team did a fantastic decision guide. tom: i would have never guessed that. i think the british do it better. jon: plenty of fed presidents have dissented. the board does the same thing. tom: i think the british do this better and it is great to know that catherine manzo on fire. with u.k. growth, it surprised in the u.k. people are saying united key get trumpflation in order like geniuses -- saying that united kingdom, get your inflation in order, look like geniuses. marvin: i think the market has it right and they were -- will skip whether or not, the term they use, it is up for to -- debate but they cannot signal they are done. they would do a hawkish skip, which means

paul, as we are talking about the fomc, have the pboc, the ecb, the boj, what are you watching in the markets for reaction? >> i think steven summed up the predicament for china nicely. the malaise and need to revive the confidence again. it is kind of in a funk. investors are putting more of their money abroad, where better to look then japan where the market has been flying high recently, setting those new 30 year highs. the boj sitting on its hand, not moving to tighten policy yet. no expectation in the market or among economists for a shift this month maybe we will move towards something coming down the line. at the moment, we are seeing chinese investors putting money into japanese ets, that tells you where the early to is right now. -- relative value is right now. heidi: it is a busy day of news flow ahead. still ahead, we are getting analysis when it comes to the fed's path forward. john taylor gives us his reaction to the fed's latest leg which and what more he thinks the central bank can do. that conversation is next. coming up after that, google facing antitrust accusations

day of testimony, jay powell told senators that the fed has a long way to go on inflation, and the fomc is aligned on the number of rate hikes appropriate for the rest of the year. here is what he said. chair powell: the committee broadly feels that monetary policy has gotten to an appropriate restrictive level, if the economy performs as is expected, it will be appropriate to rate hikes again this year and perhaps twice, a strong majority of the committee feels it will be appropriate again, assuming the economy performs as expected. jon: let's bring in bloomberg's kailey leinz with more context from washington. kailey: this, in some ways, is a regurgitation of the commentary chair powell already shared in the house financial services committee yesterday. the idea that, yes, the fed could hike rates two more times as it continues to get inflation down to 2%. he has received questions and push back on the idea that that could cause pain in the u.s. economy. he said inflation really hurts everyone, and that everyone will be benefited by inflation getting back down to their target. one ask

you'll see euphemistic smiles on the fomc. >> no smiles allowed at the fed. >> no. >> allergic to theommercial real estate in particular and guys, remember, david solomon did put out a warning in our conversation yesterday about the goldman exposure listen to what he said we have a sound bite now, about how goldman is exposed on real estate. >> real estate affects us and we have headwinds from this in three areas. first, we do have some lending and you'll see some impairments in the lending that will roll through our wholesale provision and you'll see some of that this quarter. last quarter for the real estate that we consolidate, we showed close to $400 million of impairments and we're going to see more impairments again this quarter. >> i thought it was important to highlight because it was clearly new guidance from goldman on what you're going to see in terms of just those delinquencies and problems do you think the fed is worried about this and one of the reasons they want to pause and see what lags and the damage are of the 500 basis points of tightening >> i wouldn't have used t

this all ahead of the fomc decision this week.here is expectation perhaps we might see a skip from the fed. we saw treasury yields continuing to gain ground in the new york session with the 10 year yield around the 373 level. the two year yield close to the 460 level and swap trainers pricing in one third of a chance we could see the fed hike this week. about 90% odds for a hike come july. of coy's -- course, oil prices have been under pressure as we have seen in the regular session as well given concerns about the broader economy. haidi: the concerns could see a bit of a tepid start to trading in asia. let's look at japan. a ninth straight week of gains when it comes to the nikkei 225, the longest advanced since 2017. really, we continue to see these as being the major drivers when it comes to the asian equity rally. of course, a lot of concern into the week that holds not just u.s. but boj decisions. we are not expecting any tweak to the yield curve control program by the boj but we will watch for other signs of potential risk a

that, i think, may be the core of one of the debate on the fomc this week.gnal, we don't want to raise rates, we don't break anything, but keep them here one year, two years, three years. it changes things. tom: i think we will see a wave of refinancing. i have immense difficulty of the analysis of the financial media. with jennifer, i think she was brilliant. the question is, is inflation data or labor data having more importance or wait in the central bank? what i love about the hawkish talk is that we are basically using james bullard as this equivalent. i will be able to get tickets. jonathon: i hear you. they will be data-dependent. tom: they are completely ex post data. did you see the red sox? jonathon: i did not watch that. but congratulations to nick taylor of canada. the first canadian to win that golf tournament in 69 years. tom: did you watch manchester city? jonathon: i did, i did. credit to milan for putting up a good fight. they were talking about how lopsided this match was. they put out some fantastic tactics to confront this. tom: the game

quick speculation is growing that we could see a crack in this harmonious fomc that they have presided over for the term. as our own kathleen hays pointed out this morning, it was almost a month ago that powell mentioned it might be an opportunity to afford to take some time for a more careful assessment of where they're at, where they need to go in terms of hiking. this sort of skip mentality has commendably about continuing the hikes at some point but maybe pausing this week. we heard from other fed speakers about supporting this idea of a potential pause this week. others like lori logan are still harping on inflation being very high. too hard to do this sort of skip this week. there is a real debate going on. there could be some dissent here that would be a huge outlier. we do get cpi as well on tuesdays. we are expecting cpi to be fairly strong. over 4%. >> that is exactly what i wanted to ask you about. cpi. even if it is strong, does it make a difference? will its way the fed one way or another? >> as we have seen so many times before, this inflation data, even when we are expec

in his remarks, he does say nearly all fomc participants believe it is appropriate to raise rates "somewhaturther," adding stls still a long way to go to get inflation down to the fed's 2% target. he said the banking system is resilient. >> i think he was trying to make no news. we knew that austan goolsbee was softer, that bullard wants to be more data dependent. i think what he's trying to do -- and david, you know when you make the testimony, you're trying to be neutral it's in the questions where he is called in to say, are you trying to throw us in recession? there's also, like, talk about, always, the plutocrats >> yeah, and the questioning does go off into areas that are not of great interest, perhaps, to some of our viewers or at least when it comes to the market impact of his comments, not that it's not interesting to hear him opine on whatever it might be >> but they want a slip-up >> housing or affordable housing or who knows but we'll see. >> yeah, i mean, i think that, you know, carl, when i think about what the problem is, of course, we don't have enough homes, but if he start

the difference in opinions on the fomc's as certain people will look -- fomc says certain people willk at data points one way and others will look at it another. tom: i believe we have the chart up. this chart, on radio, looks great. it is what we have seen in the inflation-adjusted deal. jonathan ferro with the wonderful ownership of the yield . this is the real yield. you go back to the doldrums of the pandemic where they absolutely crushed yield. then up you go. you are buttressed to 1.57% -- we are buttressed to 1.57%. katie: it looks like we are range bound but if you look at the fantastic who to a full 1.5% , that christ returns. it has been hard to hedge nation. tom: real yield, bloomberg the real yield is hosted by catherine greifeld. katie: sitting right here. tom: boy am i in the right felt -- katie greifeld timeout chair. ♪ that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com >> as noted in the fomc's summary of economic projections, strong majority think it is appropriate to raise interest rates two or more times this year. tom: the chairman governor and pres

uscp i and fomc meeting, federal reserve meeting in the next 48 hours will give direction on the u.s.merging market currencies. pboc is meeting this week so we will get another indication of how chinese policymakers are feeling about the economy. on the flipside if you look longer term five years down the track, idiosyncratic stories going on. indonesia and china china get up the hive commodity value change. reforms in india. it is a structurally positive story going on in the next decade. india is probably 15 years behind china so pension funds have put money into infrastructure and apple and samsung developing and building the smartphones and exporting them around the world. talk they are looking to increase electronics production. so there is a structural story going on within emerging markets. it depends on the timeframe you are looking at. next week we could have an issue depending on how cpi comes out and u.s. inflation data comes out but in the next five years or longer, you want to have money in emerging markets. shery: tara, matt just talked about india and the structural pos

what happens at the july fomc meeting? how are they back to hikes?d they see the labor market evolve? anything on the labor market and on inflation, what happens beyond july, what happens beyond that? lisa: we've got homebuilders data and economic data and stronger than expected inflation around the world. all things being equal, does that increase the chance of some more serious recession in the u.s. or decreases the chance because there is this resilience and momentum? >> i think it's important to understand which sectors of the economy across advanced economies are resilient. the manufacturing sector is not resilient. there is a recession and manufacturing across economies. look at pmi and manufacturing data, it's all pretty ugly. the ism is all at recessionary levels. you contrast that with the strength of services and the resilience of consumer spending on services, particularly things like leisure and hospitality. maybe it's the legacy of the pandemic when we still go out to restaurants. perhaps there is a draw down of pandemic euro spending. d

dani: we had both the ecb and the fomc revise their inflation forecasts about the ecb was the only oneo hike, expecting higher inflation. there has been confusion around the fed decision this week. you share that confusion? christian: the u.s. did something similar, they tried to implement some hawkish tilt to their message by moving the dot plot higher, but we had weak activity numbers in the u.s., and that means the market is discounting the situation where the fed may have a hike once more in july, which is our forecast, but not go further. i think the real interest rates in the u.s. are higher than that euro area, so the fed has done it job, they do not need to move much higher. the ecb has a little bit of work to do yet. there is another component of what we saw yesterday that has to do with the fact that growth numbers in europe are not as bad as people think they are. i returned from berlin from meetings, and to give you one number, germany tends to produce 5 million cars per year, and over the last 3-4 years they have only been producing 3.5 million cars per year. chances are t

i don't know if there is a dovish risk for the fomc at this moment. alix: quick on some breaking news. the one-year inflation expectation fell to 4.1%. it's been stabilizing their but slowly rolling over. that brings us to the question of the day what is the biggest risk this week. joining us to discuss is the european correspondent maria tadeo. we are doing in ecb bias here. what would be the biggest risk as you are concerned? >> the ecb is not the biggest risk. their decision has been well telegraphed. we are expecting a quarter-point hike from the ecb this thursday. i think the most interesting question to answer is how confident will they be at signaling what kind of laughter -- what they are after this week. if you want to quote risk and the ecb where it could get interesting, whether policymakers and christine lagarde will be comfortable to say there is more in the pipeline, potentially more than one hike in the pipeline. i would not expect her to go this far but that's what everyone would be interested in and certainly what we will be asking. g

charles: the fomc tomorrow, we know the script, that powell will come out and sound hawkish but what it. >> the street is ready for it. that is what i anticipate is going to happen. you've got a low chance of anything happening tomorrow but if the july meeting is at 50% chance of a hike i wouldn't be surprised because some things the fed has been watching, weakening and the economy and allowing them to pause, already back on the rebound, look at housing, look at the regional banks, look at credit spreads that are tightening instead of widening. the fed will be watching these items and if they are not totally ready to call it end of game yet. charles: bond yields were down when the cpi came out, they turned a little higher going into tomorrow. still a nailbiter. thank you very much. see you soon. "my take" away, taylor swift, this is an economic juggernaut. can't wait to tell you about it next. ♪ providing for your family is a top priority. but what happens when you need affordable health care? christian health care ministries could save you up to 40% today. as a member, you can choos

close to establishing a 20% advance off of the october 12th low that if it doesn't happen before the fomcthere after. >> in the past, when this has happened, has the fed then hiked rates again at the next meeting, eight weeks later? >> there have been times when the fed has raised rates and then the market digests some of those gains but there have also been periods in which there have been a several-month pause and then other periods in which the fed basically said the first time they skipped was the end of the rate tightening cycle. and in those conclusions of rate tightening cycles, in that traditional nine-month period between the last rate hike and the first rate cut, the market was up an average of 13% with all sizes, styles, sectors and 99% of the subindustries in positive territory on average. >> seems like it would be pretty important to separate out those different examples if you're looking at averages and how much they go up over those times. the fed, we expect, is going to be pretty explicit about the idea that if they pause rates this time around, that it is just temporary p

what do you think, liz >> i think probably the era of unanimous votes on the fomc could be over and we a bigger spread between some of the dots on the dot plot and we'll get that data today. his background, i'm sure, forces him to look at what signals the market as sending and we're still in this sort of situation where we have got an equity market sending pretty positive signals and we did see strength broadening out and that's something we should all take heed too we still have a bond market that is sending cautious signals. so, i think he's probably paying close attention to that, knowing that if you have a credit market that starts to show a lot of signs of stress, it is really difficult to reverse quickly so, i'm sure he's taking that into account the economic data, however, is still decently strong or at least stable of course we're seeing weakness, but not necessarily seeing anything that is terribly problematic at this point. so, i think he's watching financial conditions, i think he wants capital markets to continue to function the way that they should, and that is something t