today the fomc decided to take another accept in reducing the degree of policy restraint by loweringolicy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. we continue to be confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintain thed with inflation moving sustainably down to 2%. we also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. i'll have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments. recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to to expand at a solid pace. gdp rose at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, about the same pace as in the second quarter. growth of consumer spending has remained resilient, and investment in equipment and intangibles has strengthened. in contrast, activity in the housing sector has been weak. overall, improving supply conditions have supported the strong performance of the u.s. economy over the past year. in the labor market, conditions remain solid. payroll job gains have slowed from earlier in the year averaging

that basically, you know, since the fomc has been starting to judge some downside risks to the growth outlook does the election and the results that we have today remove or at least substantial ply mitigate youn side risks to growth >> that's your question. so i think it's too early to reach judgments here i'll tell you why. staff -- the job of staff is to go, you know, and be very nimble and make assessments in realtime like capital markets do. the markets are pricing in what policy changes will be made and what their effect on the economy will be. staff will do all of that. i think policymakers are going to wait longer to see what the actual effects will be and so for sure, at our december meeting, we'll be -- staff will present what we know, but the thing is we don't know what policies will be put in place. we know that policies new hampshire several areas will -- will change. we don't know how much we don't know over what timeframe. when it comes to fiscal policy it takes quite a long time to get a bill through congress and i think this year, what we're looking at is something tha

today, the fomc decided to take another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. we continue to be confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and labor market can be maintained with inflation living sustainably down to 2%. we also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. i will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments. recent indicators suggest economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. gdp rose at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter. about the same pace as in the second quarter. growth of consumer spending has remained resilient. investment in equipment and intangibles has strengthened. in contrast, activity in the housing sector has been weak. overall, improving supply conditions have supported the strong performance of the u.s. economy over the past year. in the labor market, conditions remain solid. payroll job gains have slowed from earlier in the year averaging 104,000 per mo

we will be hearing from fomc speakers and getting inflation data wednesday and thursday, cpi and ppil. this chart remind you services is still the driver of that remaining inflation story in the u.s. because goods prices have come down. the question of course pushing into 2025 is to what extent proposed tariffs from that incoming trump administration would prove inflationary and put a floor under some of these prices, so the outlook right now is of course murkier on the back of that as yet unresolved question, but a reminder of the role services is playing and the relative stickiness as markets start to fade out some of those cuts that had been expected from the federal reserve. let's stay with the trump impact on these markets and flip the terminal to bitcoin, which again is at these fresh record highs. it crossed 81000 and is currently up 1% in the session. a reminder of what incoming president trump has promised around the space. pro-crypto stance, promises to support in terms of regulation and put the u.s. at the center of the digital asset industry globally, and has also talked

big mistake again and i will bring in the two distinguished experts and forecast going to have the fomcting and fed not cutting interest rates anymore and guess what, inflation is sticky and not going down and actually may be creeping up. there. i said it. john carney from breitbart and david malpass. john carney, i talked to very distinguished, sire distinguished fed watcher today and said powell is wrong again. numbers haven't moved in months, 2.7 on the so-called consumer deflater. 2.2% on the -- 3.3% on core cpi and not moving in the right direction and powell was wrong and shouldn't have pushed rates down. you and i have said this a million times. will he admit it and pull back, no rate cut in december? >> cutting 50 basis points, they had no choice but to cut again and why would you have done the bigger cut and they'll try to pull back in december ask trying to say, it was new data coming in but frankly, that's a lie. data wasn't good in september and going to be bad again and it's troubling for them and looking like they cut right before the election and trump comes in and sudden

we now think the fomc will cut rates only twice by 25 basis points in march and in june.pward revisions to our inflation projections. on what? marc: what we learned this week was with the results of the election is that we will likely have an increase in tariffs next year and we will likely have restrictions on immigration. in this is regardless of the outcome in the house of representatives. we think that with the tariffs we are likely to see an increase in prices, in the price level that will increase inflation, we think already in 2025. we estimate that the tariffs could increase inflation by a good half a percent point in next year -- after percentage point to. they could have some effect in 2026. on top of that restriction and immigration are going to contribute to a tighter labor market. with a tighter labor market we are likely going to see a little bit more wage pressures by the end of next year. all of that has contributed to raising our inflation forecast by about .4% next year and a little more in 2025. jonathan: -- marc: take this full on board because we thin

and that's why as i look at the dot plot and what all of the members of the fomc say they expect for know by the end of '25, i think rates go if conditions continue like they have been continuing, rates go lower than they are today. and whether that takes place in december, takes place in january, how fast that happens, will be determined by the outlook and the conditions. but the throughline to me is pretty -- clear that we're on a path and that path is going to lead to lower rates closer to what you might call neutral. >> is that the right move? because we're getting a bunch of data in the next couple of weeks. but if we look at the data that we have gotten, for example, we're waiting on october pce that's the personal consumption expendture the feds preferred inflation gauge particularly the core. the expectation month over month on the headline is like a gain of two tenths of a percent that's pretty calm year over year up 2.3%. core, though, up three tenths of a percent year over year up 2.8%. i mean september was hotter than expected on just about every metric. are you concerned

fomc minutes. we know that you just talked about potentially a rate hike, but here's thing.s, there's less hawkishness in the fomc minutes than in the last couple of years and usually that means, ultimately, the fed wants to cut. they'd rather cut than hike. >> despite all this concern about tariffs, increasing and -- increasing inflation, what happens? the implied probability of a rate cut on december 18th has gone up to 70% from just over 50%. the fed will cut rates at least one more time, most likely in december. but after that the market is less than convinced that you will get a rate cut at least during the first three months of 2025. charles: speaking of being convinced, i want to ask you about scott bessent, potential treasury secretary. he's got this 3-3-3 plan, based on former japanese if prime minister abe. very successful. spur growth 3% through deregulation, produce 3 million additional barrels of oil. this is how we offset tariffs and really make the economy grow. we don't have a lot of time, but do you have a lot of faith this could work? >> no, i don't. 3-3-3

at a certain point the staff would brief the fomc and say these are the likely effects should there is lots of literature on the effects of tax policy changes on various parts of the economy. we try to get smart on that. then the law actually passes. you run an alternative simulation before that happens to keep people trying to understand it. when it passes, it goes into the model along with a million other things. we have a very large economy. many things are affecting it at a given time. a lot changed would go in there. it is a process that takes some time. the legislative process takes a lot of time and the real question is not the effect of that law. it is all the policy changes happening. what is the net effect and the overall effect of the economy at a given time. that is a process that takes a lot of time that we go through all the time with every administration constantly. this will be no different. there is nothing to model right now. it is such an early stage. we don't know what the policies are. once we know what they are, we won't have a sense of when they will be implement

you look at what the fed and fomc said about the trade wars.mpacts. this will be a one-time hit. does that still continue and does it depend on how big these walls are and how big the tariffs will be. jonathan: we have priced out a lot of fed easing and yet the equity market is near all-time highs because this data it has been good. jobless claims since you mentioned them down by 2.20. annmarie: we had big revisions in the nonfarm payrolls because of the oddities and hurricanes and strikes that people just wrote it off and they overlook that. i wonder how quickly can this market slip again if we get some bad labor market are we going to say we went too far on growth and now we are worried about recession? jonathan: this has slipped five verse -- five or eight times. we will catch up with kyle gordon -- kevin gordon and then david kelly of jp morgan reacting to inflation data. we will catch up with neel kashkari on whether the data might derail a december rate cut. we begin with the equity market rally on hold as investors wait for inflation dat

economic growth but fomc insurance cuts back to neutral.od for equity markets. -- stuart: what changed yesterday? not much. they viewed as a positive growth impulse but it's just a relief of getting past the major event risk where clients the wrist going into that event -- de -risked going into that event as well. we will see where positioning and views base themselves in next week we will look at the moving parts. the clearest trade yesterday that stocks that were stocks that benefited from deregulation up double digits. that tells you everything in terms of how the market is approaching the trump trade. jonathan: this is how we cut it up. tariffs, taxes, regulation. taxes, the prospect of a sweep. tariffs. dollar general got hammered. target struggled a little bit denny stong of market. how do you think about this companies going into 2025? we have to see what happens with the house. we know we will probably get some tariffs. stuart: that is the hardest one to unpack. you don't know where he's going to tier four how much and which compani

forecast, december fomc meeting that fed will not cut rates any more, they should not have cut them beforethe inflation may be creeping up. there. i said it. john carney breitbart economics and finance editor. and david malpass. smart guy, former president of world bank group. john carney, i am telling you i talked with a distinguished super fed watching today. he said powell is wrong again. numbers have not moved in months. 2.7 to so-called consumer deflate ir, 3.3% on core cpi. not moving in the right direction, powell is wrong, he should not have pushed rates down we have said it a million times. will he admit it, pullback with no rate cut. >> i think he has to. it, it ridiculous they backed themselves in to a corner they should not have cut in november, definite not in september but 50 basis points they had no point but to cut gain, i think they will back away from december, i will try to say, it was new data coming in. but that is a lie. the data was not that good. in september, when they did cut, they should not have cut then, they will back off. but that will be politically troublin

place just after they cut 50 basis points so a bit of pushback in terms of the broad sentiment at the fomcing they don't need to necessarily repeat that steep rate cut but going for a gradual pace ahead. they also noted that downside risk to growth have eased, they have moderated. that was not necessarily a surprise. we did hear that directly from jerome powell himself in the press conference. they did mention a five basis point rate reduction when it comes to rrp. that would essentially mean that the fed has their eye on liquidity concerns around the year ended turn. the end of september, we did see a funding squeeze happened in interest rates. this clause in them it's shows the fed maybe does -- in the minutes shows the fed may be does have concern on a year and funding squeeze and perhaps they could cut the rate on the rrp at the december decision. the decision is on a knife edge. we are still pressing a 50-50 chance of a cut from the federal reserve. we do have a big data dump today. notable a lot of this data is coming today instead of normally on thursday because of the thanksgiving

shadow, not a fed person but somebody who will sit in the white house and say what they think the fomc should be doing. again, that's not likely to change the mind of federal market committee voters but it might change the mind of markets moving forward. >> to that point, it does appear from everything we are hearing from sources close to trumping the transition team is that he is more open to bringing on the business types and financial leaders as opposed to economists that we traditionally see as advisors, and some of the people who hold the top positions in terms of economic advisors in his white house. do you think that could benefit, perhaps, the economy, or does that cause more concern for you, to have less economic experts and more sort of business friendly, wall street savvy people? >> i think as you imply, breanna, there's two aspects. there's one which is how business friendly, is a place to friendly to the national interests are , those are not always the same, sometimes they are not always. and then just how aware they are of how economies work. now economists, some of them

tomorrow is fomc and how much will the shadow of trump elector and trump is the president and not hadny. how much will that start to affect the fed? i know they're professionals and they're human also. >> absolutely. >> i they cut here and just given about the economy is going to improve and with the trump victory though and it looks like trump may also carry congress as well and that gives president trump a huge mandate but gives him potential to maybe change the rules of the game and maybe this is the more influence over policy. i want to be clear though, that's not necessarily bad. president trump is an experienced businessman. he's managed huge empires and maybe having some inputs from the private sector or someone experience second-degree not bad. charles: hey, joe, thank you very much for our friend. overnight you can see the world begin to chime in and many nations also entities extending congratulations and statements s and even before like a lot of media called the race. it's pretty clear, the world wants trump to know that, hey, we know you're there, we see you, you see us,

so there are things that president trump can do, and a second administration, but sweeping away the fomc would be exceedingly difficult, it would require either some kind of new piece of legislation, a new federal reserve act, or series of amendments to the existing resort federal reserve act, it is tough. >> listen, we don't know what donald trump is going to do, yet. but we do know that he likes cheap money, he wants interest rates to be as low as possible. that is how we borrow and how it spurs growth, but focusing on inflation matters. at some point, we start to focus on the deficit? like donald trump and his business life, it was all about racking up debt, but this isn't personal or business, and if we look at the plans that he potentially has and he wants to cut taxes and cut individual taxes, this is only going to balloon our deficit, at some point do you think the american people will start to notice because it won't actually impact us but the next veneration, who donald trump successfully peeled off more young voters, then we have seen any republican due since 2008, they will be

. >> there anything that could happen that the president could do to change the nature of the fomc. >> he could change the act. >> congress has to do that. >> he needs to win the house. >> but here ease the thing. if you went about that process, it would probably take as long to become law, as chairman powell's term would be much by the time that probably rolled around. i'm not sure you want to do that. >> scott vessen has suggested a shadow fed chairman. >> to undermine the current chairman. >> i don't love that idea, either. look, i think they're playing with fire. >> scott said that on our air this week again, saying the idea would be to nominate a federal reserve chair replacement early for powell. that's what i'm talking about. how early is early? if it's a metropolitan, maybe six months, it is a big deal, because you have this alternate figure out there. i just think there's a lot of ways for donald trump, who doesn't like jay powell, doesn't like what jay powell has done directionally, doesn't like the idea of a fully independence fed to put a lot of pressure on jay powell, mak

there is the elections, but also the fomc, and weeks after that we have eco-data. going to the year end, but where are we here? i talked to a source earlier. he said, we already landed. but some investors are still bracing for that hard landing. the dichotomy could not be so stark. it is a messy market, but i want to bring your attention to next week during the half pound tear, rivian, so it is not going to end. next year might even be a bigger what a week. ed: isabelle lee keeping it bright and breezy on a friday. we have so much more to come on this edition of "bloomberg technology." caroline: we do indeed look toward those elections next week. vivek ramaswamy is joining us, former republican presidential candidate and sarah get for the trump campaign. we are going to talk policies, technology, crypto, so much more. this is "bloomberg technology." ♪ caroline: this is bloomberg technology. bloomberg television and radio will air special coverage of the election on tuesday, starting at 5:00 p.m. eastern. an extended edition of "balance of power." ed: u.s. election

charles: so speak of the fed, there's an interview in pt today, fomc voter tom barkin says the u.s.shocks, so he's questioning a december cut. but on the other hand, john williams says inflation is cooling. what role does the fed have to play for this, for the doge to be successful? >> well, i like to think the doge can read the last chapper of my book, "fellowshipped upper," and figure out how to the cut waste at the fed. boy, do i have a blueprint for that. vivek and i have spoken about it in the past. no, charles, i do think inflation is cooling. we had a massive downward revision to private sector job growth. that is the biggest source of inflation, is wages, and i think that we are seeing them come under pressure. i think we're going to see a continued rise in the unemployment rate. as i like to say, is the statisticians who have been hiding the data are going to unleash the gates of hell and let all the data fly in the coming months x. we saw that yesterday with a 1.25 million downward revision to payroll growth in the year ended june 30th, 2024. that took it down a half, a ha

released later this morning so there's a lot of data that's to come out between now and the december fomceeting and i think mr. powell made a reasonable and judicious comment yesterday saying the economy is doing quite well. it's being stout and the fed has the ability to delay and to take its time in acting. i think that was a wise decision on his part. maria: one space that will certainly see an impact from the trump presidency, rebecca, is energy. president trump has been talking about tapping into america's energy capacity, oil prices this morning are lower. there are oversupply concerns and demand worries. the international energy agency forecasting global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 even if cuts remain in place by opec plus. so i mean, they're worried about oil demand at a time that they're expecting the economy to grow. that doesn't make a lot of sense to me. if the economy's going to grow, you would expect oil demand to go up but that's not what opec plus is saying. >> no, exactly, maria. there's obviously bullish price action since the trump election and we understand t

-- i'll tell you, maria, i was struck by the fact that i look at these press conferences after the fomcdn't help but notice that no reporter and not even the fed chairman would make any mention of the federal budget deficit, how it's so huge and how it's such a threat to the well-being of the u.s. economy and financial markets. but trump wins the presidency and all of a sudden a reporter is brave enough to step up and ask chairman powell, you know, questions that pertain to the threat of this huge federal deficit to the u.s. economy. man, how things change so quickly. maria: i mean, it's amazing. by the way, john, powell also said that he would not step down as fed chair even if president-elect trump asked for his resignation. he says the president doesn't have the power to fire or demote him. his term ends in 20226. trump said he would not reappoint him in 2026, john. >> we've got to preserve the independence of the federal reserve. we can't have it become influenced by our political leaders, whether you like it or not. hopefully, they'll do a good job. i want to say one thing. switchi

that means the market thinks the economy's stronger than what some believe maybe on the fomc. have a large debt. that's coming into play and the fed will have to face that as well as the congress has to face that and they're saying the fed's getting ahead of that. they're lowering rates when in fact we have a stronger economy and the deficit's growing. we're going to have more inflation. the debt's going to only grow and the bond market is beginning to say we've had enough. that's what i think. maria: yeah. and debt of $36 trillion, what would be your best advice on trying to rein that in as soon as possible, thomas? >> well, you're going to have deal with spending. we are -- you'll have to look at spending. i know taxes will be part of the discussion but that will constrict so you really want to look at spending and get that under control and the other is the deregulation and the increased productivity. i will remind people in the mid- '90s when we moved from deficit to a surplus, our economy grew in three of those four years i think nearly 4% or better. maria: that's a great

charles: well, you saw it here, folks, shots fired at the fomc yesterday in the q&a session, and i havem with, he had that swagger, it was pointed to one person. that person wasn't in the room, but his shadow was with. and finally, i was hoping that maybe it would turn out to be the most explosive question was the first, but with it did come up. take a listen. >> some of the president-elect's advisers have suggested that you should resign. if he asked you to leave, would you go? >> no. >> can you follow up on -- do you think that the legally he, you're not required to leavesome >> no. charles: bam. did i say shots fired? [laughter] powell almost daring president-elect trump to come after him or any of the members of the federal reserve. of we know recently trump has already said he doesn't want to fire jay powell, but he because believe the executiven branch should have a seat at the table when it comes to monetary policy. now, of course, the media ors you know, still wiping the egg off their face, came in to chime support for powell. but i think about this all the time, right? independ

so, for the next year, it's what powell wants the board and the fomc to do. >> brian, i just said i'm not good at math, i think i'm okay with math. let's talk about the undocumented workers and mass deportation. you know, i think there's some estimates it might cost $20,000 to deport one worker, okay? one illegal alien. do the math. i mean, if they're going to do a million, that's $20 billion, i mean, so, think about it. you're talking about logistics, the cost associated with that, and then you think about what it does to the economy. this could be a disaster, especially coupled with a trade war with increased tariffs. think about that, i'm just curious -- help us with that. >> for strips that rely on lower skill workers, because these are not high skill workers. i don't mean to be crass about it, but they're not. so, for industries that rely on lower skill workers, it's highly disruptive. you know, you went through the math on the budget impact. just the logistics of -- of rounding those people up, and you just can't fly them across a border or bus them to a border, you're going to

outline, and we would model it, and wait and wait, and the certain point the staff would brief the fomc of literature of the tax policy changes on the various parts of the economy, and we would try to be pas and then when it goes along with the model along with a million other things rmg u and a law change would go in there, and it would go in, but it is a process to take some time, and clearly the legislative process takes and the overall effect on the economy at a givenment a of time, and that is what we go through all of the time with every admin, and it is such an ez early stage, we don't know what the policies are. when we do, we will know when they are implemented sflirmt and all of that is going to take time, and it is going to be very much regular order if we can do that. >> if i could follow up on nick's question. are the current rates something that you feel that you need to lean up against in the way that they go against the current policy in that they add the given signal that you should do less? >> look, i think that the first question is how long are they going to be susta

today, the fomc decided to take another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering ourpolicy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. we continue to be confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and labor market can be maintained with inflation living sustainably down to 2%. we also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. i will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments. recent indicators suggest economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. gdp rose at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter. about the same pace as in the second quarter. growth of consumer spending has remained resilient. investment in equipment and intangibles has strengthened. in contrast, activity in the housing sector has been weak. overall, improving supply conditions have supported the strong performance of the u.s. economy over the past year. in the labor market, conditions remain solid. payroll job gains have slowed from earlier in the year averaging 104,000 per mon

a lot of focus on powell's comments were patient, but it was consistent with what he said at the fomcight do, my inclination is they would still want to cut unless the data comes in hot in some way. jonathan: let's set some thresholds. start with payrolls. i'm looking at the estimates. i can pick up one over at deutsche bank, 175 thousand. what is really strong for november given the bounce back we are looking for? what gets them to back away from a rate cut? jason: something over 200,000. october ends up being something 100,000-plus. that seems unlikely, but something along the lines when we got the revision numbers for september. i think that is probably not the labor market that is going to cause them to pause. if core inflation ticks up on the high side and you are looking at core pce at the time we get into december getting close to 3%, that is when they start to get iffy. lisa: when you extend out there is a real question about what the highs and potential lows are for 10-year yields. we were talking earlier have very few people are calling for 5% or higher 10-year yields, yet y

today the fomc decided to take another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering ourcy interest rate by a quarter of 1%. we continue to be confident that an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strengthen the economy in the labor market can be maintained with inflation moving down to 2% and we decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. i will have more to say on monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments. recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. gdp rose at an annual rate of 2.1% the third quarter, the same pace as the second quarter. growth of consumer spending has remained resilient and investment in equipment and intangibles has strengthened. in contrast, activity in the housing sector has been a week. overall, improving supply conditions have supported the strong performance of the economy over the last year. in the labor market, conditions remain solid. payroll job gains have slowed from earlier in the year, averaging 104,000 per month over the past three months. this figur

it's probably from the fomc minutes but also austan goolsbee the chicago fed president the comments heikes coming. what's your overall take? >> sure. i believe the economy is also doing very well. we didn't see any big revisions in gdp. yeah, consumption was a little bit softer, but it's still really strong. and then when we think about the labor market we're not seeing people getting let go. folks are working. that's all really great for consumption. even, you know, starting off the fourth quarter, even though we did have some hurricane action that probably dampened some of the numbers. the economy is doing well. when you think about inflation it has been sticky. the headline pce deflator has been close to 2%, but only because gasoline prices have been falling. away from that we're still seeing stickiness among services, especially for insurance costs and we think wages are also feeding into there and yeah, the fed can probably move more gradually. we still think they'll go 25 in december, but for next year if we have more inflation pressures, then we should probably pull back some of

at every meeting after the fomc meeting, he talks about how much he cares for the poor and the fighthe higher income groups, from big business, and he's not going to end up afterwards joining the people who are fighting inflation. he's going to be on the other side. so legacy is one --. >> that's two opposite things. one would be he would be keeping rates higher to hurt donald trump, the other is he would be keeping rates lower to make wealthy people happy and people involved in that. i don't understand how you put those two together. >> until now, the domination was the election, becky, but now that the elections are over, i think the opposition to trump is coming forward, and that is not going to deny him a position in the business later on once his term ends. so i think it is a matter of what you play, how you play the game at every point in time. i don't see a contradiction because i tell you what, even if he cuts in december, and we go into 2025, and my expectation is inflation is oing to perk up, especially if you have tariffs imposed, and there is, again, big scale repatriatio

is that the right kind of language you want to see coming from the fomc?he context of the uncertainty with regards to policies. but i would have liked -- and we talked about this in the past -- i would have liked to have seen a more forward-looking perspective in terms of economic dynamics. just like fundamentals being this inflationary, i would very much like to hear the fed and fed policymakers talk about how they are looking at inflation dynamics rather than just comment on every single report we get and comment on past data. i would have liked to have seen much more of that forward-looking perspective, because that is important when you are guiding monetary policy. what are your perceptions around the future of inflation dynamics? where do you see neutral? you don't have to be pinpoint as demanding where it might be, but how are you going to get there? that ford-looking perspective has been lacking in this data-dependent world. jonathan: hopefully we get some of that from chairman powell this afternoon. greg daco of ey. welcome to the program. some eco

remarks from fed chair jay powell on thursday, just one week after the fomc cut rates by another 25.nomic advisor jason furman writing this, monetary policy is going from very contracted tory to reasonably contractionary. this makes sense given that inflation risks are much lower than before but are still higher than recession risks. i expect another cut in december, but core pce inflation is likely to rise, making a continued process of consent every meeting difficult. jason furman at the harvard kennedy school joins us now. thank you for your time. i know you're looking at potentially this cut in december. but give us some clues on what the heck 2025 is going to look like when policy can be vastly different that this fed needs to recap alert -- recalibrate for? >> separate from anything related to policy changes coming from donald trump, we will probably end the year with a core pce inflation rate at something like 2.8%. that is usually your best bet for what inflation is going to be going forward. then you add to that some fiscal expansion, some tariffs. we do not know the magnitu

investors digesting fed speak ahead of the latest fomc minutes do it 2:00 p.m. this afternoon. we heard from neel kashkari saying it's appropriate to consider a december rate cut. goolsby making the case for easing. i'm thinking back to the news conference with chairman powell where he said to the news conference and participants watching there was nothing to model yet on the tariff front. do we have something to model now? lisa: can you model it from the true socials? interesting to see how the message that. both goolsby and kashkari came out and said it's appropriate to cut rates, with goolsby saying the neutral rate was going to be 2.9%. he leaned into that assessment of fed officials. it signals maybe they will not come out with modeling. when it comes to tariffs there are 70 people who said they are disinflationary or deflationary and it becomes difficult to know how to begin to model these from an economic perspective. jonathan: the respect to see fed chair auditions in the next 12 months? lisa: it'll be curious to see we have that before then. kevin warsh

falling in the woods when there is no one there to hear it, the fight convened for the second to last fomcnomic data, things we would otherwise be focusing on. but no one seems to be listening. jonathan: we'll have special coverage right here on thursday. i might have to change ties, but i will still be here. same sick, everything. in the next 30 minutes, catch up a thousand average minority owner mark cuban. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ the winter escapes sale is now on. visit sandals.com or call 1-800-sandals. it's our son, he is always up in our business. visit sandals.com it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin!

jonathan: jay powell saying the fomc is in no rush to cut rates further, citing economic strength.ctations for a december reduction. michael kushma of morgan stanley writing the surgeon yields post fed rate cut was unusual. these are the challenges of being too data-dependent when data is very noisy. december is getting more debatable. michael joins us now for more. base case, is this a pause or a cut? michael: i think they are going to cut but it will be characterized as not as a continuation to expect this continuously but reflecting again the recalibration of monetary policy to a more appropriate level given the current position of the economy but will not portend more rate cuts automatically next year. dani: something annmarie and i have been talking about this morning is the politics, the optics of what it would look like if the fed pauses in december right before donald trump comes in. do you think that is playing on the fed's mind at all? michael: i don't think so. i think they are data-dependent. they have been whipsawed over the past year and a half. we saw this in late sp

fomc minutes coming on tuesday as the debate over a december skip continues.data could have the fed considering a pause in december and/or adjusting its rate path higher, think the broader trend is toward lower policy rates. pleased to say that tiffany joins us for more. let's talk about the trend. you believe the broader trend still holds and we are heading toward lower interest rates. tiffany: yeah, well, i think if we take a step back from -- we obviously had a big election event, but if we take a step back from that and take a look at where we have been over the last four years, we have been in a unique period for global economies. the pandemic itself, the fiscal policies that supported it, the recovery from that him and we are getting back to normal. you can see that if you look at inflation trends. in the u.s. we are elevated, but we are a stones throw -- other economies are much closer to normal in terms of inflation. if you look at the labor market it is also normalized by a bit from those acute labor shortages. against that backdrop central banks shou